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Archives for February 2021

Pirates Sign Tony Wolters

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The Pirates announced Thursday morning that they’ve signed catcher Tony Wolters to a minor league contract. The longtime Rockies backstop and VC Sports Group client will be in camp as a non-roster invitee this spring. His deal comes with a $1.4MM salary if he makes the Pirates, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic tweets.

Wolters, 28, has been the primary catcher in Colorado for the past five seasons due entirely to his glovework. He’s a career .238/.323/.319 hitter in 1232 plate appearances — a line that checks in at 43 percent below league-average (57 wRC+) when weighting for his hitter-friendly home park. Wolters does have a career 9.9 percent walk rate, although that’s at least partially a function of the fact that 75 percent of his plate appearances have come when batting eighth ahead of the pitcher.

Defensively, Wolters’ track record is quite strong. His career 31 percent caught-stealing rate is above the league average, and he regularly grades out as an above-average to excellent pitch framer. His defensive grades all took a collective step back in 2020, but it’d be a bit rash to judge him harshly on 283 innings in a pandemic-shortened season when his previous 2400 innings behind the dish all suggest him to be capable of top-notch glovework.

Notably, the Rockies thought enough of Wolters’ glove and athleticism to also give him brief looks at second base, shortstop, third base and in left field. If the Pirates also believe that Wolters, who was drafted by the Indians as a shortstop back in 2010, can move around the diamond in that capacity, then he could potentially emerge as a versatile super-utility piece off the bench. Jacob Stallings, a strong defender in his own right, seems likely to get the bulk of the work behind the dish to begin the 2021 season, however.

Royals Acquire Andrew Benintendi In 3-Team Deal

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The Royals have announced a three-team deal to acquire outfielder Andrew Benintendi from the Red Sox. Outfielder Franchy Cordero is part of the return going to Boston, along with righty Josh Winckowski, who’ll come from the Mets. The Boston org also receives three players to be named later, two from Kansas City and one from New York. On their end, the Mets will add K.C. outfield prospect Khalil Lee.

Benintendi is under team control through the 2022 season. He’ll earn $6.6MM for the upcoming campaign under a two-year arbitration agreement he made previously with the Sox. The Sox will pick up $2.8MM of the tab on Benintendi’s 2021 salary.

There’s no doubting Benintendi’s talent. He has largely produced above-average offensive numbers while delivering well-rated, versatile glovework across the outfield. Benintendi shone in particular in 2018, when he ran a .290/.366/.465 slash line with 16 home runs and 21 stolen bases over 661 plate appearances.

Unfortunately, Benintendi’s output has drooped a bit since that time. He was merely an average offensive performer in 2019, though his batted-ball figures (.330 wOBA vs. .348 xwOBA) suggested some poor fortune. And he struggled mightily in brief action last year, with a forgettable 14-game effort halted by what turned out to be a season-ending rib injury.

The Royals obviously believe a well-rested Benintendi can return to form. To reach his previous levels, the former sixth-overall pick will both need to rediscover his acumen at the plate and rebound from a multi-year decline in foot speed.

For the rights to Benintendi, the Royals will part with a package of potentially interesting but unestablished players. Cordero is 26 years of age, like Benintendi, but has only taken 315 MLB plate appearances over the past four seasons. Despite immense potential, he has been thwarted to this point by injuries and has yet to fully test himself at the game’s highest level.

The Sox will give Cordero a chance to find his footing in the bigs, though even if he’s successful he’ll only come with one more season of control than Benintendi. They’ll otherwise look solely to the future in this deal. Winckowski, whom the Mets acquired earlier in the offseason, has yet to crack the upper minors. He’s considered a potential back-of-the-rotation arm. It remains to be seen what names will be available in the PTBNL selection pool, but the Red Sox will have three chances to choose far-away young talent after getting a fresh look over the coming months.

For the Mets, it’s rather a straightforward situation. The club obviously preferred the future of Lee to that of Winckowski (and whatever PTBNL ends up moving in the deal). In addition to filling a void in the team’s prospect pool, Lee has some serious potential upside. He’s a certified burner, having swiped 53 bags at Double-A in 2019, but still has some developing to do as a hitter.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter) first reported a deal was in the works. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweeted an agreement was in place. Further details were reported by Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link), Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter), Heyman (Twitter link), Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (in a tweet), MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (on Twitter), Chad Jennings of The Athletic (in a tweet), and Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dodgers Reach 2-Year Arbitration Deal With Walker Buehler

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The Dodgers have inked a new contract with righty Walker Buehler, but it won’t expand upon the team’s control rights. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links), the deal will resolve Buehler’s arbitration case by guaranteeing him $8MM over the next two seasons.

MLBTR had projected Buehler to earn in the $2.3MM to $3.1MM range for the 2021 campaign. The contract provides a $2.75MM salary along with a $3.25MM rate of pay for 2022. That latter number is obviously light, which is why Buehler will also enjoy a $2MM signing bonus.

The Dodgers gain cost certainty and avoid a hearing with a critical young player. In exchange for sacrificing some contractual upside, Buehler will lock in some serious career earnings and gain some long-term protection from injury.

Buehler will also retain a chance to boost his earnings through escalator provisions. Per Rosenthal, the deal calls for Buehler to earn an additional $500K upon reaching each of six games started thresholds (14, 16, 18, 20, 24, 28). Cy Young voting outcomes can also bump the payday: $1.125MM for a win or $625K for a top-three finish.

The 26-year-old Buehler reached arbitration eligibility as a Super Two player. He’ll have two more arb-eligible campaigns to go after this deal runs out. The sky is the limit on his earning power for those seasons and beyond. Through 365 2/3 career innings to date, Buehler owns a 3.15 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate.

Mets Designate Ali Sanchez

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The Mets have designated catcher Ali Sanchez for assignment, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports on Twitter. His roster spot was needed to make way for the team’s new addition this evening.

Sanchez, 24, becomes the second player to lose a Mets 40-man spot this evening. He reached the majors briefly in 2020, getting enough time to record his first hit but little more. Sanchez earned that opportunity primarily with his glovework, as he carries a marginal .259/.317/.331 batting line over his minor-league career.

Blue Jays Claim Joel Payamps

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The Blue Jays won a waiver claim to acquire righty Joel Payamps from the Red Sox, per TSN’s Scott Mitchell (via Twitter). Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com had tweeted that the move appeared to be in the works.

Payamps has never appeared with the Boston organization, which claimed him earlier in the offseason only to designate him for assignment when a roster need arose. The 26-year-old first reached the upper minors in 2017 but has only received limited MLB chances to this point. It’s certainly possible he’ll end up on the DFA carousel as teams compete to see who’ll be able to slip him through waivers in hopes of stashing him for depth.

Mets Designate Corey Oswalt

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The Mets have designated righty Corey Oswalt for assignment, per a team announcement. His roster spot will go to Albert Almora, whose previously reported deal is now official.

Oswalt, 27, has received several MLB opportunities over the past three seasons. All told, he carries a 6.19 ERA with a 16.4% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, and 41.3% groundball rate through 84 1/3 innings of action.

None of those stats jump off the page. Likewise, Oswalt doesn’t throw particularly hard and didn’t produce gaudy peripherals in the minors. That said, he has produced full-season, sub-3.00 ERA efforts at the Double-A and Triple-A levels and could hold appeal elsewhere as a depth arm.

FA Pitching Notes: Robertson, Kintzler, Marlins, Shoemaker, Parker

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Free-agent reliever David Robertson will hold his previously reported showcase on Thursday, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. There will be a large group of teams in attendance, Heyman suggests, owing to a combination of the 35-year-old Robertson’s past accomplishments and what should be a low-risk contract. Robertson enjoyed great success as a Yankee and White Sox from 2008-18, establishing himself as an oft-dominant workhorse along the way, but the right-hander fell off as a Phillie after that. He threw 6 2/3 innings in an injury-shortened 2019 and didn’t pitch at all last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

  • Brandon Kintzler turned down a $2MM guarantee from the Marlins to join the Phillies on a non-guaranteed pact Wednesday, Barry Jackson of the Miami relays. The righty is betting on himself that he’ll land a roster spot in Philadelphia and earn a $3MM salary with up to $1MM in incentives. Kintzler was the closer last year in Miami, where he saved 12 of 14 games and posted a terrific 2.22 ERA with a similarly impressive 57.3 percent groundball rate. The veteran’s ability to keep the ball on the ground helped him overcome a K-BB percentage of 3.0 – the sixth-lowest mark among qualified relievers. The Marlins had an opportunity to keep him after last season, but they instead declined his $4MM option in favor of a $225K buyout.
  • Righty starter Matt Shoemaker is “weighing multiple offers” and may sign somewhere this week, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports. Shoemaker, 34, was a Blue Jay from 2019-20, but injuries held him back in both seasons. He threw 28 2/3 innings in ’19 because of a torn ACL and finished last year with another 28 2/3 while battling shoulder inflammation. A lofty 29.6 percent home run-to-fly ball rate led to a 4.71 ERA for Shoemaker in 2020, but his 4.35 SIERA, career-high 92.1 mph fastball velocity, and above-average walk and groundball percentages (7.6 and 48.1) were more encouraging.
  • Reliever Blake Parker is deciding among three teams’ offers (one of which is a major league deal) and could make his choice soon, per Heyman. The 35-year-old righty turned in a fine 2020 as a Phillie with a 2.81 ERA/3.39 SIERA and an exorbitant strikeout rate (36.0 percent) over 16 innings, though he also walked 13.0 percent of the batters he faced.

Mets Interested In Jake Arrieta, James Paxton

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The Mets attended Jake Arrieta’s recent workout for MLB clubs, and the two sides have had discussions about a potential contract in the weeks since that outing, per SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter link). Martino notes that there’s no sense a deal is close and adds that lefty James Paxton is also of some interest to the Mets.

Both Arrieta and Paxton are repped by the Boras Corporation, so talks regarding the team’s interest in the pair are largely streamlined. Arrieta and Paxton aren’t free agents at ideal times, but they do represent a couple of the most established arms available on a shrinking market that lost No. 1 option Trevor Bauer to the Dodgers last week. The Mets were finalists for Bauer, and though they’re not going to acquire anyone of his caliber at this stage (barring an unexpected blockbuster trade), they remain on the hunt for starting help.

The Mets’ rotation has undergone a few noteworthy changes already since the offseason started. They brought back Marcus Stroman for the $18.9MM qualifying offer after he sat out all of last year over health concerns. The club also acquired Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland in the Francisco Liriano trade, while it dealt Steven Matz to the Blue Jays and brought in a potential replacement in Joey Lucchesi as part of a three-way swap with the Padres and Pirates.

Stroman, Carrasco, Lucchesi and David Peterson currently look like the favorites to back superstar Jacob deGrom in New York’s rotation when the season opens. If signed, though, Arrieta or Paxton would appear to be in line for a back-end spot. Arrieta’s a former NL Cy Young winner, though the soon-to-be 35-year-old posted a rough 5.08 ERA/4.83 SIERA combination in 44 1/3 innings with the division-rival Phillies last year.

Paxton has frequently dealt with injury issues during what has otherwise been a solid career, and he pitched just 20 1/3 frames as a Yankee in 2020 because of back and arm troubles. When the 32-year-old did take the mound, he limped to a 6.64 ERA and saw his average fastball drop from 95 mph-plus to a little over 92, though Paxton did log a respectable 3.88 SIERA. He also continued to generate strikeouts at a high clip, as his 28.9 percent K rate checked in well above the league average of 23.4.

Reds Claim Max Schrock

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The Reds have claimed infielder Max Schrock off waivers from the Cubs, per a team announcement. Chicago had recently designated Schrock for assignment. The move fills the Reds’ 40-man roster.

Schrock, 26, was a 13th-round pick by the Nationals back in 2015 but has since been traded to the A’s (in return for Marc Rzepczynski) and the Cardinals (in exchange for Stephen Piscotty). He made his big league debut with the Cards in 2020, going 3-for-17 with a home run, but was then claimed off waivers by the Cubs at season’s end. The Reds’ claim will put Schrock on his third NL Central roster in a span of just four months.

While Schrock won’t do much for the Reds’ glaring lack of a shortstop — he’s played just 78 innings at the position in his pro career — he gives them a left-handed bat with experience at second base and at third base. He’s never shown much power, but Schrock is a career .300/.354/.406 hitter in five minor league seasons, including a .260/.324/.350 line in 760 Triple-A plate appearances.

Which Players Will Have The Largest Change In Performance In 2021?

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FanGraphs’ 2021 playoff odds are out.  If you’re into forecasting, it’s fun to look at something like this.  At this moment in time, FanGraphs projects the Yankees, Twins, Astros, Mets, Cardinals, and Dodgers as the six division winners.  Their projections have the White Sox, Blue Jays, Padres, and Braves as the wild card teams.

For FanGraphs’ playoff odds to have any meaning, you have to consider the many underlying assumptions.  FanGraphs’ Ben Clemens explains how it’s done here.  Most importantly, team projections require forecasts for both performance and playing time.  I’m going to assume that the site’s Depth Charts player projections, described as ” a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff,” are similar to what fuels their playoff odds.

One thing that’s easy to forget when talking about which teams have improved the most over the offseason is that we cannot assume the performance of holdover players will be constant.  Take AL MVP Jose Abreu, for example.  Abreu was worth 2.6 WAR in last year’s 60-game season, so with a simple multiplier of 2.7, that extrapolates to about 7 WAR over a full season.  In other words, for 60 games, Abreu played like a 7-WAR player.

FanGraphs’ blended ZiPS/Steamer projections do not predict anything close to a 7 WAR season for Abreu in 2021.  Instead, they predict a 1.8 WAR campaign, the same as Abreu produced in 2019.  A 1.8 WAR Abreu is basically what’s baked into FanGraphs’ projection of 88.2 wins for the 2021 White Sox.  Their projection is that Abreu will be the 11th best player on the 2021 White Sox.

Here’s a look at the position players FanGraphs expects to lose the most WAR in 2021, compared to the player’s extrapolated full season 2020 production (link for app users):

On the flip side, many who struggled in 2020 are expected to bounce back.  I’ve replaced negative 2020 WARs with zero for the table below, as I don’t think it makes sense to extrapolate J.D. Martinez’s -1.0 WAR to -2.7.  With that in mind, here are the biggest projected gainers for position players (link for app users):

On to the starting pitchers.  Here are the biggest projected dropoffs (link for app users):

And here are the biggest projected gains for starting pitchers.  As you’d expect, the biggest gains are projected for pitchers who missed all of 2020 due to injury or opting out (link for app users):

What do you think?  Which players will experience the biggest change from their 2020 performance?

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