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Archives for July 2021

Angels Move Dylan Bundy To Bullpen

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The Angels are moving right-hander Dylan Bundy to the bullpen, manager Joe Maddon told reporters (including Sam Blum of the Athletic). Southpaw José Suarez will assume a permanent spot in the starting rotation.

It’s the continuation of what has proven to be a difficult year for Bundy. He seemed to have turned a corner upon being traded from the Orioles to Los Angeles entering 2020, spinning 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball during his debut season with the Angels. Things have gone completely south in 2021, though. The 28-year-old has been tagged for a 6.58 ERA in 67 frames this season. Bundy actually got off to a good start with three consecutive quality starts to begin the campaign, but he’s managed just a 7.88 ERA in twelve appearances since, with opposing hitters teeing off for a .297/.360/.568 slash line in that time.

In fairness to Bundy, the underlying numbers suggest he’s pitched a bit better than his bottom line run prevention would suggest. His 21.5% strikeout rate is disappointing, a below-average mark that’s nearly six percentage points below his 27% clip from last season. But it’s not disastrously low, and Bundy’s 10.8% swinging strike rate is serviceable. He’s always been a quality strike-thrower, and that hasn’t gone away either. Bundy’s only walking 7.2% of opponents, right in line with his career pace and better than league-average. Those strikeout and walk numbers contribute to a more respectable 4.30 SIERA.

The biggest issue for Bundy this season, as it was during his time in Baltimore, has been the long ball. He’s allowed a staggering fifteen home runs (2.01 HR/9). Among pitchers with 50-plus innings, only Matt Shoemaker (2.14 HR/9) has coughed up homers at a higher rate. Unsurprisingly, a glance at Bundy’s Statcast page confirms he’s given up plenty of hard contact.

That all makes for an interesting decision for teams this winter. Bundy’s slated to hit free agency for the first time this offseason. Obviously, this isn’t the platform year he’d desired, but his arsenal hasn’t evaporated. His four-seam fastball and slider velocity are actually up a tick relative to last season, as are Bundy’s spin rates. (His spin has dropped over the past month, coinciding with the league’s foreign substance crackdown, but Bundy’s slump predated reports of imminent enforcement of the ban on sticky stuff). The results simply haven’t been there this season, but we’re only a year removed from Bundy finding plenty of success with this level of raw stuff.

The Angels already bumped José Quintana to the bullpen a couple weeks ago, so Bundy’s the second member of the season-opening rotation to move into relief. That mostly reflects Quintana’s and Bundy’s down years, but it’s also a testament to the strong work of their eventual replacements, Patrick Sandoval and Suarez.

Sandoval has a 3.44 ERA/4.00 FIP across seven starts this year. Suarez was knocked around as a starter back in 2019, but he’s earned his way back into the rotation with quality work as a multi-inning reliever this year. The 23-year-old has tossed 27 1/3 innings over nine relief appearances, pitching to a 1.98 ERA with solid strikeout and walk rates (23.9% and 8.3%, respectively).

MLB Announces All-Star Starters

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Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2021 All-Star Game this evening. The starting lineups are determined by fan vote. This year’s All-Star Game will take place in Coors Field on Tuesday, July 13. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

National League

American League

*On the 60-day injured list

Giants Place Mike Tauchman On Injured List

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The Giants announced they’ve placed outfielder Mike Tauchman on the 10-day injured list due to a right knee sprain. To replace him on the active roster, San Francisco reinstated fellow outfielder Jaylin Davis from the 60-day IL. A 40-man roster spot for Davis’ activation was opened when right-hander Gregory Santos was suspended for performance-enhancing drugs earlier this week.

Tauchman is only expected to miss 10-14 days, as his sprain is relatively minor, the team told reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Upon his return, the 30-year-old will need to perform better than he has in recent weeks. The Giants acquired Tauchman from the Yankees in April, but the left-handed hitter has only managed a .180/.292/.295 line in 161 plate appearances in black and orange. Tauchman is out of minor league option years, so the Giants will need to continue to keep him on the active roster once he returns from the IL or make him available to other clubs.

The activation is a nice birthday present for Davis, who turns 27 years old today. He’ll be making his season debut once he gets into a game. Davis has been sidelined all year by right knee tendinitis. The powerful right-handed hitter hasn’t done much over 59 major league plate appearances to date, but he’s mashed at a .329/.412/.709 clip in 357 trips to the dish at Triple-A.

The Giants also provided an update on injured first baseman Brandon Belt. He’ll attempt to rehab from the right knee inflammation that sent him to the IL last week (via Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). Surgery, which would’ve sidelined Belt for eight-to-twelve weeks, had been on the table, but there’s a realistic chance for the 33-year-old to return without going under the knife. There’s no timetable for his return, but Baggarly notes he’ll be “definitiely” be back in less than two months if all goes well.

Health Notes: Bader, Calhoun, Canha, Peterson

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The Cardinals activated center fielder Harrison Bader from the 10-day injured list today and optioned fellow outfielder Lars Nootbaar to Triple-A Memphis in his place. Bader missed a little more than a month with a right rib hairline fracture. Before the injury, the 27-year-old had slumped to a .219/.301/.411 mark over his first 83 plate appearances. Bader’s a quality baserunner and defender, through, and his return will allow the Cards to shift Dylan Carlson back into the corner outfield role for which he’s better suited.

In other health news:

  • Kole Calhoun might have suffered a setback in his recovery from left hamstring surgery. The Diamondbacks outfielder’s minor league rehab assignment was recently halted, as he was sent back to Phoenix to undergo an MRI after feeling something in the hamstring while attempting to dodge a hit-by-pitch, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. It’s been something of a lost season for the veteran, who has been limited to 51 plate appearances by injuries. If healthy, Calhoun would be an obvious trade candidate for the last-place Diamondbacks. The 33-year-old hit a strong .292/.333/.479 in 2020 and is in the final guaranteed season of his two-year, $16MM contract with the organization. Calhoun’s deal comes with a $9MM club option (or a $2MM buyout) for 2022.
  • Athletics outfielder Mark Canha is unlikely to return to the club before the All-Star Break, manager Bob Melvin tells reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). Canha, who landed on the injured list with left hip tendinitis last week, recently underwent platelet-rich plasma injections in both hips. A somewhat prompt return from the 32-year-old would be a huge boon for the A’s, who trail the Astros by half a game in the AL West. An ever-underrated contributor, Canha is hitting .255/.375/.450 with 11 homers in 325 plate appearances this year.
  • Mets left-hander David Peterson departed his start last night with discomfort in his right side. Manager Luis Rojas told reporters (including Laura Albanese of Newsday) that Peterson continued to experience side tightness today and will be sent for further evaluation. Rojas added the 25-year-old is unlikely to make his next scheduled start. Peterson has struggled to follow up on last year’s promising rookie campaign, pitching to a 5.40 ERA/4.23 SIERA through 66 2/3 innings this season.

Cardinals Release Tyler Heineman

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The Cardinals announced they’ve released catcher Tyler Heineman from the minor league deal he signed over the winter. (St. Louis also confirmed their previously-reported agreement with left-hander T.J. McFarland). Heineman’s contract allowed him to elect free agency if a major league opportunity opened up elsewhere, notes Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (Twitter link). It’s not yet clear if that was the impetus for his release.

Heineman only picked up 77 plate appearances with Triple-A Memphis this season, hitting .254/.325/.313 without any home runs. The 30-year-old has typically been more productive at the minors’ highest level, evidenced by his career .284/.351/.422 line over parts of six Triple-A seasons.

That generally solid minor league work has earned Heineman brief looks in the big leagues in each of the past two years. He suited up for the 2019 Marlins and 2020 Giants, totaling 62 plate appearances.

Athletics Unlikely To Pursue Trevor Story

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The Athletics are unlikely to pursue Rockies star shortstop Trevor Story in advance of the July 30 trade deadline, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Instead, Passan suggests Oakland could look to add “an impact bat” in the outfield.

Strictly from an on-field perspective, a Story pursuit would make a lot of sense for the A’s, who trail the Astros by half a game in the AL West. Oakland shortstops (almost exclusively Elvis Andrus) have hit just .229/.272/.306 (62 wRC+) across 309 trips to the plate this season. Andrus has been better over the past couple months after an absolutely horrible April, but he’s still put up a below-average .265/.305/.352 mark since May 1. Story’s having a down season (.259/.332/.446) by his lofty standards, but even his disappointing year is far better than Andrus’ performance so far. And Story was one of the best shortstops in the sport from 2018-20, during which time he hit .292/.355/.554.

The bigger obstacle to the A’s landing Story always seemed to be finances. The two-time All-Star is making $17.5MM this season, his final year before free agency. A team that acquires Story at the deadline would owe him around $6.1MM for the stretch run, assuming the Rockies don’t pay down any of the deal to ensure a better trade return. For a player of Story’s caliber, that’s more than reasonable, but it’s also a higher amount than the low-payroll A’s seemed likely to take on midseason.

Nevertheless, reports emerged last month suggesting Oakland could be a player for Story’s services. If they’re indeed out of the running, that removes one of the few contenders with an obvious hole at shortstop. All six current division leaders (Red Sox, White Sox, Astros, Mets, Brewers and Giants) already have answers at the position, as do the Blue Jays, Mariners, Nationals, Phillies, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers and Padres. The Rays have a glut of highly-regarded infield prospects at or near the big league level, and they don’t seem particularly likely to assume Story’s salary either. It’s debatable whether the Angels, Cardinals or Reds are close enough to contention to acquire an impending free agent.

As Passan notes, that leaves the Indians and Yankees as the cleanest fits for Story. Whether Cleveland’s ownership would greenlight a significant midseason acquisition of salary is an open question, though. New York, meanwhile, spent the entire offseason maneuvering their way just below the first luxury tax threshold. Owner Hal Steinbrenner suggested this morning he’d consider going over that mark, but it remains to be seen whether that’s the case and/or whether the team is even close enough to contention a month from now to make that kind of acquisition worthwhile.

Lack of obvious fits notwithstanding, the Rockies still seem likely to eventually find a landing spot for Story. One of the shortstop-needy clubs on the fringes could yet play their way into definitive contention. Clubs without an obvious roster fit could come up with a creative way of working him into the fold- perhaps by moving Story or their incumbent shortstop over to second or third base for a few months.

The Rockies could recoup draft pick compensation via a qualifying offer if they hang onto Story all year, but it’s probable they find a more valuable prospect package in a trade in the coming weeks. It’s possible that offer will wind up coming from a team that, at first glance, doesn’t seem to actually “need” a shortstop.

Pirates Place Colin Moran On Injured List With Wrist Fracture

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Pirates first baseman Colin Moran is going on the 10-day injured list after suffering a small fracture in his left wrist/hand area, manager Derek Shelton told reporters (including Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review). Outfielder Jared Oliva has been recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis to take his spot on the active roster.

Moran suffered the injury when he was struck by a Kyle Freeland pitch on Monday. Sheldon didn’t provide any sort of timetable on his return, although even a minor fracture seems to have the potential to be rather bothersome. This will be Moran’s second IL stint of the season, as he also missed a little less than a month earlier this year with a left groin injury.

It’s particularly notable with the trade deadline less than a month away. The rebuilding Pirates are certain to listen to offers on veteran players, and a healthy Moran could draw some interest from contenders. The 28-year-old has hit a solid .280/.345/.414 with four homers across 174 plate appearances this season.

It’s not clear whether Moran will be able to make it onto the field before July 30, or whether he’ll immediately settle back in at the plate. Hand injuries can sometimes linger, particularly impacting a hitter’s power upside. Players on the IL can still be traded (the Marlins traded injured outfielder Corey Dickerson earlier this week, in fact), but there’s no urgency for the Pirates to move Moran if his value is at a low point. He’s on an affordable $2.8MM deal this season and controllable via arbitration through 2023.

Steinbrenner: Yankees “Not Contemplating” Selling At Deadline

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The Yankees’ season of underwhelming reached a crescendo with a stunning loss last night that saw them blow a four-run lead by yielding seven runs in the ninth inning. New York currently sits at 41-39 with a -3 run differential, an 8.5-game deficit in the AL East and a 5.5-game deficit in the AL Wild Card race. There’s been plenty of speculation about the team selling off some veteran pieces prior to the July 30 trade deadline, but Hal Steinbrenner made clear today when addressing reporters that he has no such plans.

“That’s not a direction I’m contemplating,” Steinbrenner said when asked whether the Yankees might be deadline sellers (Twitter links via Newsday’s Erik Boland). To the contrary, it seems rather that Steinbrenner expects his team will work to improve. The Yankees have taken plenty of flak for being the game’s most valuable franchise but staunchly refusing to exceed the luxury tax for a third straight season. Steinbrenner now, however, says he’ll consider crossing that line at the deadline if it gets his team over the edge.

The Yankees currently sit just under $4MM shy of the $210MM luxury barrier, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and it’s no coincidence that they so narrowly managed to limbo under that bar. The vast majority of the Yankees’ offseason moves made ownership’s desire to avoid that line transparent. The club targeted Jameson Taillon and his $2.55MM salary as its second rotation piece after inking Corey Kluber for a year and $11MM. The Yanks also traded right-hander Adam Ottavino to the archrival Red Sox in a trade that lopped around $8MM off their luxury obligations. (Ottavino, conversely, has pitched quite well for the first-place Red Sox.)

Late signings of Justin Wilson, Darren O’Day and Brett Gardner were all structured to include player options which were unlikely to be exercised but nevertheless lowered the luxury commitment on those additions because player options count as “guaranteed” money and thus drop a contract’s average annual value. From the jump this past offseason, nearly every decision the Yankees made was colored by a desire to drop under the luxury barrier.

If the Yankees do indeed end up crossing the line, the question will naturally be one of whether it’s too little or too late. Exceeding the barrier will come with the maximum dollar-for-dollar tax rate possible on any overages: 50 percent for the first $20MM, 62 percent for the next $20MM and 95 percent for any spending thereafter. It’s unlikely at this point that they’d spend to reach the top level of penalization, of course, but exceeding the tax this year would again subject the Yankees to luxury penalization in 2022 — assuming some iteration of the current system remains in place after the expiration of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement. Were they to remain under the tax, they’d “reset” their penalty level and only be subject to the first tier of luxury payments in 2022.

Steinbrenner also voiced confidence in general manager Brian Cashman, manager Aaron Boone, and the team’s coaching staff (Twitter links via Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News and MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). Steinbrenner noted that his GM has “done a good job” assembling the roster and praised his communication skills, scouting acumen and knowledge of analytics while suggesting that a clearly talented roster simply hasn’t performed up to standards. As for Boone and the coaches, Steinbrenner called them “absolutely” the right people to lead the team.

Yankee fans who’ve followed the team since Hal’s father, George, was running the ship are no doubt aware of the likelihood that the elder Steinbrenner would’ve cleaned house in the front office and the dugout by now. But Steinbrenner emphasized that he’s his own person while pointing out that oftentimes, his father’s more rash personnel decisions didn’t actually pay dividends.

On the whole, Steinbrenner’s comments are something of a mixed bag for Yankee fans. While many are surely relieved to hear that the club will finally consider exceeding the tax line, there’s no doubt frustration that said point wasn’t arrived upon back in the offseason. As with any struggling team, fans have become increasingly frustrated with the front office and field staff alike, so the vote of confidence in Cashman and Boone may not be as popular as it once would’ve been.

Nevertheless, Steinbrenner’s comments are telling of the Yankees’ direction not only over the next 30 days but perhaps in the coming offseason and beyond. A prolonged losing streak could ultimately change the organization’s calculus, but for the time being it seems we should expect today’s pickup of outfielder Tim Locastro in a small trade with the Diamondbacks to be the first of multiple acquisitions as the Yankees look to change their fortunes in what has been a challenging 2021 campaign.

Twins Designate Matt Shoemaker For Assignment

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The Twins announced this morning that they’ve designated veteran right-hander Matt Shoemaker for assignment and selected the contract of righty Derek Law from Triple-A St. Paul in a corresponding move.

Shoemaker, 34, tossed a quality start in his Twins debut earlier this year, but it’s been all downhill from there for the most part. The former Angels and Blue Jays righty has been shelled for 53 earned runs in his past 54 1/3 innings and is sitting on an overall 8.06 ERA and 5.38 SIERA with just a 14.1 percent strikeout rate against a 9.5 percent walk rate. The Twins may have had some hope after a move to the bullpen produced moderately better results, but Shoemaker served up eight runs in 2 2/3 frames of mop-up work in last night’s loss.

Signed to a one-year, $2MM deal late in the offseason, Shoemaker was viewed as the likely fifth starter to open the season and a necessary depth addition in a season where workloads were expected to be monitored leaguewide. But his struggles, paired with those of fellow veteran J.A. Happ and fellow back-of-the-rotation option Randy Dobnak, have helped to dig the Twins into a sizable hole. Many of the organization’s top pitching prospects have been hit by injuries in 2021 as well, which pushed the team to continue trying to coax something out of Shoemaker rather than make a move earlier in the year.

The Twins will have a week to trade Shoemaker, pass him through outright waivers or release him. Given his struggles, it’s not reasonable to expect another club having interest in a trade or waiver claim. In all likelihood, today’s DFA will lead to a release. However, given his track record prior to the 2020 season, it’s possible another organization will take a no-risk look at the veteran righty on a minor league deal in hopes that a change of scenery can right the ship. Shoemaker has had myriad injury issues in his career, but he had a nice run with the Halos earlier in his career and, prior to signing in Minnesota, had pitched to a 4.12 ERA in his most recent 166 MLB frames.

As for the 30-year-old Law, he’ll return for a second Twins stint in 2021 in hopes of better results than he produced in his first go-around. Law appeared in five games for the Twins already, yielding six runs on 11 hits and six walks with nine strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings. He’s been a bit better in Triple-A, where he has a 4.61 ERA and 12-to-4 K/BB ratio in 13 2/3 innings. It could be another quick stint for Law, as the Twins called him up in part to get a fresh arm in the ’pen, but he’ll at least have another opportunity to show he can stick on the roster.

Law posted a 2.55 ERA in 55 innings as a rookie with the Giants back in 2016 but has never replicated that success. In 117 2/3 frames since that time, he’s been tagged for a 5.43 ERA with a passable 22.2 percent strikeout rate but an untenable 12.3 percent walk rate.

The Twins Are One Of The Keys To The Trade Deadline

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The Twins have looked like sellers for much of the season, but as we’ve seen in recent years, most clubs prefer to wait until closer to the deadline to chart a course. As noted here recently, Minnesota faces almost exclusively AL Central clubs leading up to the July 30 trade deadline. If there was a 2019 Nationals-esque surge in this group, now would be the time to set it in motion.

The Twins started off taking two of three against an Indians club whose rotation is in tatters, but they’ve dropped their first two against the White Sox to fall 13.5 games out of first place in the division. For a team that needs to be nearly flawless over this pivotal stretch of divisional opponents — particularly versus Cleveland and Chicago — dropping three of the first five games isn’t a great start.

Given that this was a team most expected to contend for the Central, at the very least, it’s not at all surprising that there are several players who’d interest contenders. In fact, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in yesterday’s 20 Questions column that the Twins are “the team almost every contender is waiting on.” Minnesota still plays the White Sox eight times, the Tigers a whopping 11 times and the Royals three times before the trade deadline, so maybe they can pull off the macro version of last night’s staggering Angels comeback, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that this goes the direction most onlookers have expected for awhile now.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the Twins could do as the deadline draws nearer…

The Rentals

Michael Pineda, RHP ($10MM salary): Pineda is currently on the shelf with inflammation in his right elbow. He’s been out since June 14, but he’s slated for a rehab start in Triple-A today. Assuming there are no setbacks, Pineda would be one of the most attractive options on the rental market. He’s an established mid-rotation arm who has performed well with the Twins when he’s been able to take the mound (3.86 ERA, 3.92 FIP in 228 2/3 innings over 42 starts). Pineda did get hit with a PED suspension in 2019, although it was one of the rare instances where the league seems to have believed some of his plea of innocence, as MLB reduced his ban from 80 to 60 games. Many undoubtedly recall Pineda’s pine tar-covered hat in his Yankees days and will wonder about him in connection to the current crackdown on foreign substances. On that note, it’s worth pointing out that his spin rates were below-average in the first place and had actually decreased since signing with the Twins. We can’t know anything for sure, of course, but on paper he doesn’t look like your typical “Spider Tack” case.

Nelson Cruz, DH ($13MM): Happy 41st birthday, Nelson! The Boomstick is still swinging it as well as ever, slashing .307/.378/.585 with 18 home runs, 11 doubles and his first triple since 2018. Cruz has been 57 percent better than a league-average hitter, per wRC+, and he’s cut his strikeout rate from 25.7 percent in his first two years with Minnesota down to 19.1 percent in 2021. His market will be limited to AL clubs unless some NL GM really, really wants an interleague/World Series DH and an occasional pinch-hitter. (We’ve all learned never to rule anything out with A.J. Preller by now.) AL contenders who could use an upgrade at DH include the A’s, Blue Jays, Rays and White Sox. Of course, Cruz’s salary may be steep for the A’s and Rays, and it’s hard to imagine the Twins shipping Cruz to their top division rival.

Andrelton Simmons, SS ($10MM): Simmons hasn’t been great with the bat in Minnesota — .245/.316/.328, 81 wRC+ — but the defense looks sharp. Simmons’ defensive metrics took a tumble in both 2019 and 2020 after he suffered a Grade 3 ankle sprain and then re-sprained that ankle a second time. In 2021, he’s third among all players, regardless of position, with 12 Outs Above Average, per Statcast. He’s also notched a plus-2 mark in Defensive Runs Saved after registering minus-2 in that regard in just 265 innings last summer. The ankle appears healthy, and his range has seemingly improved as a result. If you want to upgrade your infield defense, they don’t come much better than this.

Alex Colome, RHP ($6.25MM): Colome was the Twins’ biggest offseason pickup in the bullpen, but the outstanding fortune he had on balls in play with the White Sox went up in smoke in 2021. Teams were surely wary of Colome’s .211 average on balls in play over the past two seasons with the ChiSox, which quite likely why the Twins were able to wait him out and get him for just a year and $6.25MM. Colome immediately stumbled out of the gates in Minnesota, blowing a game in his first appearance and floundering through a poor overall showing in April. He’s posted a respectable 3.60 ERA with a huge 58.1 percent grounder rate in 20 innings since, but he doesn’t look anywhere near as impressive as he did for the South Siders. Presumably, the asking price here wouldn’t be too high.

Hansel Robles, RHP ($2MM): Robles’ numbers would’ve looked better had this breakdown been written before his past two appearances, when he’s been tagged for four runs in two innings. But the right-hander is still sporting a 3.63 ERA and 48.3 percent ground-ball rate — albeit with a slightly below-average strikeout rate and a bloated 13.6 percent walk rate. He’s also experienced a rebound in fastball velocity after a dip in 2020, and he’s on a cheap enough contract that a contending club with luxury tax concerns might be particularly intrigued.

J.A. Happ, LHP ($8MM): Happ got out to a decent start in 2021, but he’s been shelled for most of his past nine appearances. His best performance in that stretch was his most recent, when he held Cleveland to a pair of runs on six hits and no walks with seven punchouts in six innings. If he can string together a few more nice outings like that, maybe some club would pick him up for a negligible return (i.e. partial salary relief) to try to stabilize the back of its rotation.

More Controllable Possibilities

Jose Berrios, RHP ($6.1MM, controllable through 2022): If the Twins were to make Berrios available, he might be the most coveted name on the market. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported recently that the Cardinals have inquired and, unsurprisingly, found the asking price to be quite high. Still, Passan writes that a growing number of executives around the game expect the Twins to be willing to seriously consider a trade. That’s likely indicative of the level of interest in Berrios, as the Twins don’t seem likely to embark on a total rebuild even if they do sell. They’d likely seek young controllable, big-league ready talent in a trade of Berrios, who boasts a 3.41 ERA and matching 3.40 FIP with a career-best 26.5 percent strikeout rate and a 6.4 percent walk rate (the second-lowest of his career). His current salary is eminently affordable, and even with an aggressive raise in arbitration, he’d still be a bargain next year. Any contending club would love to have Berrios — it’s just a matter of how strong the offers are and whether the Twins are willing to compromise their 2022 roster by trading the best pitcher they’ve developed in the past decade.

Taylor Rogers, LHP ($6MM, controllable through 2022): Rogers has put a shaky (by his standards) 2020 season behind him. Through his first 32 innings, he’s sitting on a 2.53 ERA that’s actually higher than his FIP, xFIP and SIERA. Rogers’ 32.6 percent strikeout rate is back in line with his 2019 level, and this year’s 3.9 percent walk rate is the best of his career. He has the fifth-best chase rate of any qualified reliever in MLB. As with Berrios, Rogers could play a key role for the 2022 Twins, so the offer would need to  be strong. But relievers with this combination of swing-and-miss ability and command — particularly lefties — are tough to come by, so the demand will be sizable. This is also a Twins front office that generally hasn’t been keen on committing too much to any individual reliever, and Rogers’ final arbitration raise will push his salary into the $8-9MM range. A trade to a contender is very plausible. (As an aside, it’d be quite the fun story to see twin brothers co-closing games for a contending club. We’re all looking at you, Giants.)

Tyler Duffey, RHP ($2.2MM, controllable through 2022): Duffey hasn’t been the dominant setup man he was in 2019-20, but he’s controlled another season on a cheap salary and has still been effective in 2021. There’s no sugar-coating that his strikeout and walk rates from 2019-20 have dropped from 34.2 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively, to 22 percent and 12.6 percent in 2021. He’s improved both a bit over his past 15 outings, though, and only allowed two runs in that time. Overall, he has a 3.52 ERA and 3.84 FIP in 30 2/3 innings. As with Robles, if you’re a contending team with luxury tax concerns, taking a chance on a cheap reliever with a bigger track record probably has some appeal.

Caleb Thielbar, LHP ($700K, controllable through 2024): A Minnesota native and feel-good comeback story from 2020, Thielbar can be controlled another three years beyond the current campaign. That might make dealing him counterintuitive should the Twins be looking for a quick turnaround after a theoretical summer sale, but Thielbar will turn 35 this offseason and relievers are volatile in the first place. The Twins brought him back from indie ball last year, so there’s a “playing with house money” element to marketing him. He’s pitched 50 1/3 innings of 2.86 ERA ball with a 30.1 percent strikeout rate and an 8.1 percent walk rate since returning last summer. Fielding-independent metrics largely support the ERA. With multiple contenders sitting right on the luxury-tax precipice, Thielbar could be an under-the-radar but highly attractive chip for the Twins.

Longer Shots

Like Berrios, Rogers and Duffey, Byron Buxton is controlled only through the 2022 season. However, Buxton is on the injured list after an errant fastball fractured his left hand in a recent at-bat, and it’s nearly impossible to envision the Twins moving their most talented player at such a low point. The durability concerns with Buxton are understandable, and his repeated absences in 2021 have been a major factor in the Twins’ current predicament, but trading him doesn’t feel realistic.

It’s a similar story with righty Kenta Maeda, who has been hit hard this season and spent time on the injured list with an adductor strain. The Twins control him into 2023, and even if his struggles as a starter continue, his $3.25MM base salary is plenty reasonable if he’s in a bullpen or hybrid role. He doesn’t need to be the ace-caliber arm he was in 2020 to justify his contract, and the flexibility he provides the Twins moving forward carries more value than what they’d receive by selling low in a trade.

Right fielder Max Kepler and second baseman Jorge Polanco would no doubt attract interest thanks to their long-term deals, but Kepler is in the midst of his own down season and controlled affordably all the way through 2024. Polanco had a dismal three-week slump to open the year but has hit quite well (.275/.345/.483) since that time. He’s signed through 2025, so there’s little reason for the Twins to consider anything there.

Josh Donaldson is hitting .299/.382/.662 over the past month and has homered in three straight games, but he’s also 35 years old and only in the second season of a four-year, $92MM contract that affords him limited no-trade protection. It’s tough to see something coming together with all the money still owed to him.

The Twins might welcome a taker for strikeout-plagued slugger Miguel Sano, who is hitting .195/.280/.435 this season with a 37 percent punchout rate. But Sano is making $11MM this year, $9.25MM in 2022, and is also owed a $2.75MM buyout on a $14MM option for the 2023 season.

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With a deep reserve of enticing position prospects, headlined by current big leaguers Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, plus several key pieces under long-term control and plenty of payroll space this winter, the Twins shouldn’t be expected to completely tear the roster down. It’d make sense to target some controllable arms, however, as they’ve dealt with injuries to several of their top pitching prospects in 2021 (Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino among them).

At the end of the day, the Twins might prefer to hold out a bit longer before waving the proverbial white flag, but they’d need a historic rally to overcome a 13.5-game deficit in the division or a 12.5-game deficit in the Wild Card race at this point in the season. It increasingly feels like a matter of time before they start moving some short-term veterans, with the greater question being how aggressively they’ll sell rather than whether they’ll sell at all.

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