Rotation Injuries Could Push Cardinals To Trade Market
While the Cardinals haven’t provided much in the way of specifics beyond classifying ace Jack Flaherty‘s oblique strain as “significant,” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter) that the 25-year-old righty could be sidelined for the remainder of the first half of the season. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch also weighs in on the lack of a concrete timeline for Flaherty, similarly implying that he could be many weeks away from returning to the Cards. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News pegs Flaherty’s likely return at some point in August.
It was clear at the time of the injury that Flaherty would miss more than the 10-day minimum associated with his placement on the injured list, but an IL stint spanning into the season’s second half would wipe out as much as quarter of Flaherty’s season. Losing Flaherty for even a couple starts is a blow for St. Louis, but seeing him shelved for six-plus weeks would be a gut punch for a team that has been beset by rotation injuries.
The Cardinals lost young righty Dakota Hudson to Tommy John surgery last September, and they’ve received just four innings from Miles Mikolas so far in 2021 after he experienced renewed forearm discomfort in his return from a flexor operation that wiped out his 2020 season. The plan for Mikolas is to be reevaluated either in late June or early July, but there’s no clear timeline on a potential return for him either. Meanwhile, lefty Kwang Hyun Kim is out with a lower back injury.
With the injuries piling up in rapid fashion, the Cardinals’ rotation has dwindled. Adam Wainwright remains a rock for their staff, but Carlos Martinez has been inconsistent and was just obliterated by the Dodgers for 10 runs in less than an inning of work in his most recent outing. Righty John Gant has an impressive 2.63 ERA, but he won’t be able to maintain that production unless he curbs a sky-high 15 percent walk rate. In 54 innings, he has nearly as many free passes issued (37) as strikeouts recorded (41), and he’s also plunked three batters. Young righty Johan Oviedo‘s control has been similarly worrisome in a smaller sample of 24 innings (five starts).
Meanwhile, as Goold notes in his column, top Cardinals pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore is slated to pitch for Team USA in the Olympics. He could be called back to the organization to help fill the need, but Goold writes that Mozeliak called this a “tough” decision while acknowledging that Liberatore’s Olympic aspirations could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
All of that makes Flaherty’s injury even more problematic for the Cardinals, though given his general excellence, it’d be a notable blow even if the rest of the staff were healthy and effective. In 62 innings so far this season, Flaherty has logged a 2.90 ERA with a hearty 26.3 percent strikeout rate and a better-than-average 7.8 percent walk rate. Since being ambushed for six runs in an Opening Day start against the Reds, he’s pitched to a 2.18 ERA in 57 2/3 frames.
Despite the fact that their rotation is in shambles, the Cardinals are hanging in the NL Central race at 31-29. They’re two and a half games behind the division-leading Brewers and a half-game back from the Cubs, with a Wild Card spot sitting just 3.5 games out of reach. So long as they continue to tread water and keep themselves within striking distance of a postseason bid, it feels safe to presume that rotation upgrades will be a primary focus for president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, general manager Mike Girsch and the rest of the front office as the deadline draws nearer.
It’s worth wondering whether the glaring rotation issues would be enough to make the Cards jump the market a bit — there ought to be plenty of available names from which to choose — but notable trades are far more commonplace in July than in June, historically speaking.
AL Central Notes: Twins, Haase, Turnbull, Junis
The Twins‘ season has been a disaster thus far, but they’re on the verge of getting some desperately needed reinforcements. The team announced that Byron Buxton will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul beginning today, and Kenta Maeda will make a rehab start for the Saints tomorrow. The 27-year-old Buxton stormed out of the gates looking like a legitimate MVP candidate, slashing .370/.408/.772 with nine home runs, 10 doubles, five steals and his typical stellar defense through 24 games (98 plate appearances). A Grade 2 hip strain has sidelined him for more than a month, however.
Maeda, meanwhile, was the AL Cy Young runner-up in 2020’s shortened season but has had a rough go of it in 2021. The 33-year-old posted solid numbers in his first three starts but didn’t tally many innings due to high pitch counts. He’s since had a bit of a velocity dip while struggling in the run-up to an IL placement of his own due to a groin strain. The Twins have trotted out a carousel of outfield options with Buxton, Max Kepler and utilityman Luis Arraez all injured, while injuries on the pitching staff have prompted the team to remain committed to veteran Matt Shoemaker in the rotation despite pronounced struggles (as explored here by Dan Hayes of The Athletic).
Some more notes from the division…
- Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this morning that he plans to give catcher Eric Haase “as much playing time as I can” to afford him further opportunity to cement his place on the big league roster (Twitter link, with audio). The 28-year-old Haase, a Detroit native and childhood Tigers fan, has been an out-of-nowhere success story since being summoned to Detroit. The minor league veteran has tallied 74 plate appearances and responded with a .265/.324/.647 slash and a whopping seven home ruins. Hinch called Haase a “pretty good athlete,” which is why he’s seen time in left field, and suggested Haase could also handle first base. There’s a case being made to keep Haase on the roster even when the team’s other catching options come off the injured list.
- Hinch also noted in his appearance (via MLB.com’s Jason Beck, on Twitter) that right-hander Spencer Turnbull will miss “a little bit of time but not nearly as long” as the Tigers originally feared when he first alerted the team to the forearm strain that has landed him on the 10-day IL. That sounds like Turn bull is in for more than a minimal stint, but it’s good that a worst-case scenario has been avoided. The 28-year-old Turnbull drew headlines for this year’s no-hitter, but he’s been a solid starter for Detroit dating back to 2019. During that stretch, he’s logged a combined 4.13 ERA in 255 innings with a 22 percent strikeout rate and a 9.1 percent walk rate. With three years of club control remaining beyond the 2021 season, a healthy Turnbull would figure to command considerable interest on the summer trade market, though that club control also means the Tigers are under no pressure to move him if a compelling offer doesn’t present itself.
- The Royals optioned righty Jakob Junis to Triple-A Omaha this week on the heels of some recent struggles, and skipper Mike Matheny told reporters after the move that 28-year-old will stretch out for longer stints even though his eventual role upon his return to the Majors isn’t yet determined (link via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). “You can be a starter (in the minors) and that doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t come back as a reliever,” Matheny said of Junis, who made four solid starts earlier this year but has been hit hard out of the bullpen. Matheny noted that Junis “should” be a pitcher who is capable both of working multiple innings as a reliever but also succeeding when plugged into high-leverage spots. The future role for Junis is surely somewhat dependent on how young pitchers and prospects like Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar and Kris Bubic develop. Junis was a solid back-of-the-rotation piece for the Royals from 2017-18 (4.35 ERA, 101 ERA+ in 275 1/3 innings) but has just 19 innings of bullpen experience in the Majors.
Mariners To Select Dillon Thomas
The Mariners will select the contract of outfielder Dillon Thomas from Triple-A Tacoma prior to today’s game, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (via Twitter). It’ll be the 28-year-old’s first call to the big leagues.
Thomas, a fourth-round pick by the 2011 Rockies, spent six years in Colorado’s system and another pair of seasons in the Cubs organization before joining the Mariners on a minor league pact over the winter. He’s made a good impression in his first look with Tacoma, raking at a .338/.459/.625 pace with six homers, five doubles, four steals (in five tries) and a hearty 12.2 percent walk rate through his first 98 plate appearances.
Outside of three games at first base with the Rockies’ Double-A club back in 2016, Thomas has worked exclusively as an outfielder in his minor league career. He’ll join Jake Fraley and Taylor Trammell as left-handed outfield options alongside right-handed-hitting veteran Mitch Haniger. The Mariners, of course, are without Kyle Lewis for the foreseeable future owing to a knee injury and just yesterday optioned top prospect Jarred Kelenic back to Tacoma after several weeks of struggles against big league pitching.
Trammell laid waste to Triple-A pitching in his brief demotion to Tacoma, and given his own widely agreed-upon status as one of the game’s top outfield prospects, he ought to be in line for regular reps in center again. Haniger is a fixture in right field, save for the occasional day at designated hitter. That leaves Fraley, Thomas and perhaps utilityman Donovan Walton as the Mariners’ top options for work in left field at the moment.
Minor MLB Transactions: 6/7/21
The latest minor moves from around baseball…
- Reds righty Hector Perez cleared waivers and was outrighted off their roster, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. Perez, who celebrated his 25th birthday on Sunday, had been in limbo since the Reds designated him on June 2. He began this year by pitching to a 9.35 ERA in 8 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level before his designation.
Earlier:
- The Red Sox outrighted Colten Brewer to Triple-A after the right-hander cleared waivers. Brewer was designated for assignment last Thursday. After a pretty solid 2019 season out of Boston’s bullpen, Brewer has struggled to a 6.75 ERA in 26 2/3 frames over the last two years, including a single inning of work this season that saw him allow four earned runs.
Giants To Select Sam Long
The Giants will select the contract of left-hander Sam Long, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. He’ll start their game against the Rangers on Wednesday.
Long was an 18th-round pick of the Rays in 2016 who signed a minor league contract with the Giants entering the current season. He has since recorded a fantastic 1.99 ERA with 37 strikeouts against five walks in 22 2/3 innings divided between Double-A and Triple-A. Overall, Long has pitched to a 2.83 ERA through 178 1/3 minor league frames.
Once he arrives, Long will join a contending San Francisco club that’s currently without Aaron Sanchez and Logan Webb, who have combined for 15 effective starts but are on the injured list at the moment. Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Johnny Cueto and Alex Wood have been good in their own right, and their efforts have helped the Giants to a two-game lead in the National League West.
Phillies Outright Scott Kingery
The Phillies announced that they have reinstated infielder/outfielder Scott Kingery from the injured list and outrighted him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Kingery cleared waivers and is no longer part of the Phillies’ 40-man roster, though he’s still with the organization.
Needless to say, this is not what the Phillies had in mind when they signed Kingery to a six-year, $24MM guarantee entering the 2018 season. Kingery hadn’t even played in the majors at that point, making his deal the largest for anyone who hadn’t yet appeared in the bigs. The former second-round pick was a top-tier prospect then, which led the Phillies to gamble on locking him up at what they thought were team-friendly prices for the long haul. He’s earning $4MM this year, and the club owes him a combined $15MM from 2022-24 (including a $1MM buyout for the last of those seasons).
While Kingery’s pact also includes team options ranging from $13MM to $15MM from 2024-26, it seems doubtful he’ll ever rake in that money. After all, the 27-year-old has failed to establish himself as a viable major leaguer, having batted just .229/.280/.387 with 30 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 1,127 plate appearances. Kingery, who’s just 1-for-19 with 12 strikeouts in the bigs this season, hasn’t played with the Phillies since May 16. He’ll now have to try to make his way back to their roster via Triple-A, where he’s a .291/.330/.453 hitter across 307 trips to the plate.
Angels Designate Hunter Strickland For Assignment
The Angels announced that they have designated veteran right-handed reliever Hunter Strickland for assignment. In a corresponding move, the club recalled righty James Hoyt.
Strickland has only been with the Angels for a few weeks, as the team acquired him from the Rays for cash considerations or a player to be named later on May 15. At that point, Strickland owned a stingy 1.69 ERA with a 24.2 percent strikeout rate and a 9.1 percent walk rate in 16 innings, but he was unable to continue that effectiveness as an Angel. The 32-year-old now sports a 4.03 ERA with a 20 percent strikeout rate against a 10 percent walk rate through 22 1/3 frames.
The Angels could find a taker in a trade for Strickland, who has enjoyed a solid career despite recent struggles. Otherwise, considering Strickland has been outrighted in the past and has enough service time, he may elect to test free agency if he doesn’t want to join the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate.
Brewers Option Keston Hiura
The Brewers have optioned infielder Keston Hiura to Triple-A Nashville, per a team announcement.
This is the second time this year the Brewers have demoted Hiura, whom they previously sent down at the beginning of May. Milwaukee recalled Hiura a little while later after he put up an eye-popping .438/.526/.906 line with three home runs and two stolen bases in 38 plate appearances with Nashville, but he returned to struggling after the team brought him back. The 24-year-old was a .152/.247/.266 hitter across 89 trips to the plate when the Brewers sent him down, and he’s now at an even worse .130/.217/.222 through 122 PA. Hiura has also struck out at an alarming 39.3 percent rate and logged an paltry .093 isolated power mark with one home run.
Hiura, of course, is a former star prospect who more than matched the hype as a rookie in 2019, during which he batted .303/.368/.570 with 19 homers and nine steals in 348 PA. But he fell flat a season ago and simply hasn’t been able to rebound since then. Hiura has spent the majority of his time in the bigs this year sharing reps at first base with Daniel Vogelbach, who has also registered below-average numbers.
Mariners Option Jarred Kelenic
The Mariners announced that they have reinstated infielder Shed Long from the 60-day injured list, optioned outfielder Jarred Kelenic to Triple-A Tacoma and transferred infielder/outfielder Sam Haggerty to the 60-day IL with right shoulder inflammation.
Kelenic, one of the game’s most touted prospects, reached the majors for the first time in the middle of May. Unfortunately, the 21-year-old could only produce an .096/.185/.193 line over his first 92 plate appearances in the bigs, punching out at a 28.3 percent clip along the way. Kelenic drew walks at a solid 8.7 percent clip, connected on a pair of homers and went 3-for-3 in stolen base attempts, but it was still far from the debut most hoped to see.
Of course, it’s easy to forget that even the most-hyped prospects in the sport don’t hit the ground running all the time. Kelenic in particular was rather aggressively pushed through the minors, perhaps in part due to former Mariners president Kevin Mather rather blatantly broadcasting the organization’s plans to hold him in the minors for service time purposes, regardless of performance in Spring Training or early in the season.
Kelenic played just 21 Double-A games in 2019, and while he was with the club’s alternate site in 2020, he didn’t actually play in competitive games against other organizations last year. The delayed start to the minor league season meant more of the same intra-squad action for Kelenic to begin the 2021 campaign, and while that certainly carries some developmental value, it’s not the same as actual competition against other clubs. He utterly destroyed Triple-A pitching when the minor league season finally got underway in May, but he only played in six games before being summoned to the Majors.
The service time issue raised by Mather shined a spotlight on Kelenic’s ascension to the Majors, so it’s worth looking at just how a return to Triple-A will now impact his service clock. Kelenic was already guaranteed to finish the season shy of one year of service, so it’s unlikely his path to free agency will be further delayed by this demotion. He was always going to finish this year with between zero and one year of service, finish the 2022 season between one and two years, the 2023 season between two and three years, and so on, up until the completion of the 2027 season.
Kelenic accrued 26 days of Major League service time in his first run through the big leagues. In order for that free-agent calculus to change, he’d need to spend fewer than 146 days in the Majors between 2021 and 2022 combined. That seems decidedly unlikely, barring an untimely major injury or injuries sustained while playing at the minor league level. What today’s demotion could do, however, is impact whether Kelenic eventually qualifies as a Super Two player who’d be eligible for arbitration four times (assuming the arbitration system as we know it remains intact in the next collective bargaining agreement, which isn’t a given).
Super Two designation is awarded to the top 22 percent of players (in terms of service time) who have between two and three years of service in a given season. Generally speaking, prospects who are called up in mid-to-late June and stick in the big leagues end up falling just shy of Super Two status. Kelenic’s early-May promotion had him on track for Super Two status, but if he were to spend another four to six weeks in the minors, he could fall into a more traditional arbitration schedule.
There’s obviously no indication as to how long the club plans to keep him down for at the moment, and he’ll probably control his own fate to some extent. If he immediately takes the Pacific Coast League by storm and continues hitting near the .370/.414/.630 pace he did in his brief Triple-A showing earlier this year, his stay in the minors could prove brief. If Kelenic’s struggles persist in Tacoma, however, it’s feasible that the early struggles could cost him one trip through arbitration.
With Kelenic now back in Tacoma and Kyle Lewis facing a prolonged absence due to another knee injury, the Mariners’ promising young outfield has a much different look. Fellow top prospect Taylor Trammell is back for a second look after dominating Triple-A himself (the exact path the Mariners no doubt hope Kelenic will travel in the coming weeks). He’ll handle center field. Mitch Haniger has been excellent in right field all season and should remain the primary option there, though he’s also a logical trade candidate, particularly if the Mariners slip further below .500. (They’re currently 30-31.) Seattle also recently got 26-year-old Jake Fraley back from a notable hamstring strain, so he could step into Kelenic’s spot in left. Utilityman Donovan Walton could see some occasional time there, and Long has logged time in left field in the past as well.
Speaking of the now-25-year-old Long, he’s now set for his 2021 debut after spending months working back from the surgery he underwent on his right tibia last September. The former Reds prospect impressed in his first major league action in 2019, when he batted .263/.333/.454 with five home runs and three stolen bases in 168 plate appearances, but he was unable to build on that in 2020 as he attempted to play through a stress fracture that eventually led to that September surgery.
Long took 128 plate appearances last summer but posted a disastrous .171/.242/.291 with three homers and four steals before landing on the injured list. It’s admirable that he tried to gut things out, but the injury was clearly hindering him at the plate. He’ll now get a fresh chance, presumably at full health, to prove he’s more the 2019 version of himself than the 2020 version.
Blue Jays Notes: Jansen, Springer, Biggio, Hatch, Borucki
Catcher Danny Jansen suffered a right hamstring strain that forced him out of Sunday’s 6-3 Blue Jays loss to the Astros. Jansen was hurt running the bases trying to beat out a fielder’s choice in the third inning, and Reese McGuire took over at catcher for the top of the fourth. Jays manager Charlie Montoyo told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters that Jansen would receive tests both yesterday and today to determine the extent of the strain.
With Alejandro Kirk already on the 60-day injured list, losing Jansen to the IL would leave Toronto with a catching depth chart of McGuire and (in all likelihood) Riley Adams, who is hitting .250/.410/.600 over 78 plate appearances at Triple-A this season. Adams had never played at the Triple-A level prior to this season, and he doesn’t officially have any big league experience — the Blue Jays called Adams up for a three-day cup of coffee on the active roster in early May, though Adams didn’t appear in any games. While McGuire is the more experienced option, his struggles at the plate over the last two seasons would perhaps mean that McGuire and Adams would be deployed in a platoon, as the youngster’s Triple-A production certainly seems to warrant a look against Major League pitching.
More from the Jays…
- George Springer is making “extremely encouraging” progress in his recovery from a quad strain, GM Ross Atkins told reporters (including Matheson, TSN’s Scott Mitchell and Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling) as part of a series of updates on injured Blue Jays players. Springer has been performing running drills over the last two days, and Atkins implied that the outfielder is “very close” to heading out on a minor league rehab assignment. This is Springer’s second quad injury of the season, and combined with those injuries and an oblique issue, the prized free agent signing has appeared in only four games in 2021.
- Speaking of rehab assignments, Cavan Biggio began his assignment at Triple-A yesterday. A cervical spine ligament sprain sent Biggio to the 10-day IL on May 22, but it looks like he’ll be able to rejoin the Jays sometime this week. The injury absence has underlined an overall tough season for Biggio, who has a -0.3 fWAR through 39 games and 151 PA due to a lack of hitting (.205/.315/.315) and some defensive struggles as Toronto’s regular third baseman.
- Thomas Hatch threw two scoreless innings for Triple-A Buffalo yesterday, as the right-hander resumed a rehab assignment after missing two weeks with what Atkins described as “mild tightness in his side.” Hatch is working his way back from an elbow impingement suffered during Spring Training that has kept the righty out of any Major League action this season. Hatch worked 16 of 17 games as a reliever in his 2020 rookie season, but Atkins said the team is still planning to build Hatch up as a starter.
- Ryan Borucki is on the verge of beginning a throwing program, and is no longer feeling any pain in his forearm. A left flexor strain went Borucki to the injured list in mid-May, representing yet another injury setback for a southpaw who missed most of the 2019 due to elbow issues.