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Robbie Ray, Corbin Burnes Win Cy Young Awards

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The Baseball Writers Association of America revealed the results of Cy Young award balloting this evening. Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays (now a free agent) and Corbin Burnes of the Brewers were named the American League and National League winners, respectively.

Ray claimed the AL award in resounding fashion, an achievement made all the more remarkable by his 2020 struggles. The southpaw dealt with significant control problems during the shortened campaign, leading the D-Backs to trade him to Toronto for essentially no return. After the end of the year, the Jays jumped the market to bring Ray back, buying low on the talented hurler with a one-year, $8MM pact.

That move will go down as one of the best of general manager Ross Atkins’ tenure in Toronto. Not only did Ray get back to heights that saw him make an All-Star team and garner some Cy Young support in 2017, he posted the best showing of his eight-year career. Ray worked 193 1/3 innings of 2.84 ERA ball, striking out an elite 32.1% of batters faced. That swing-and-miss stuff was nothing new, but the 29-year-old also cut his walk rate by almost two thirds. Just one year after walking 17.9% of opponents, Ray doled out free passes at just a 6.9% clip in 2021.

64 American League pitchers tallied 100+ innings this past season. Among that group, Ray ranked 3rd in ERA, strikeout percentage, strikeout/walk rate differential (25.2 percentage points) and SIERA (3.22). He led all AL hurlers in both innings pitched and swinging strike rate (15.5%). That stellar showing earns Ray his first Cy Young award and positions him as one of the top pitchers on this offseason’s free agent market.

As mentioned, the voting tilted quite strongly in Ray’s favor. He appeared on all 30 ballots, receiving 29 first-place votes and one second-place tally. The Yankees’ Gerrit Cole (who received the lone first-place nod that didn’t go to Ray) was the clear second-place finisher, with Lance Lynn of the White Sox coming in third. Nathan Eovaldi, Carlos Rodón, Frankie Montas, Lance McCullers Jr., Liam Hendriks, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito and Raisel Iglesias also received down ballot support.

Voting in the National League was far more contentious, with very little separation between Burnes and the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler at the top. Both players received twelve first-place votes and appeared on all 30 ballots in some capacity, but Burnes’ 14-9 edge in second-place finishes wound up making the difference. The other six first-place votes went to eventual third-place finisher Max Scherzer, who split the season between the Nationals and Dodgers.

To some extent, the battle between Burnes and Wheeler came down to weighing volume versus rate effectiveness. Wheeler tossed an MLB-best 213 1/3 innings, while Burnes worked 167 frames. That’s a rather significant nod in Wheeler’s favor, but Burnes’ per-inning accomplishments were incredible. The Milwaukee righty ranked second among the 62 NL hurlers with 100+ innings in ERA (2.43) while pacing the league in SIERA (2.61), strikeout percentage (35.6%), strikeout/walk rate differential (30.4 percentage points) and swinging strike rate (16.6%).

That’s not to imply Wheeler was ineffective. The Phils’ righty was among the top ten in the league in most rate categories as well. But voters ultimately gave an ever so slight edge to Burnes’ utter domination of opponents, even if that came with a lighter workload than the one Wheeler shouldered.

Like Ray, Burnes takes home his first Cy Young award. He’d finished sixth in last year’s balloting and now looks like one of the game’s top handful of hurlers moving forward. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Brewers, who control Burnes via arbitration through the end of 2024, try to open extension talks with his representatives at CAA Sports over this offseason.

In addition to the three finalists, Walker Buehler, Brandon Woodruff, Kevin Gausman, Adam Wainwright, Julio Urías and Jacob deGrom picked up some down ballot support. Buehler was the only non-finalist to garner any second-place votes, with two runner-up nods.

See full balloting results.

Images courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

Cleveland Guardians Name To Become Official On Friday

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The Cleveland Indians will officially become the Guardians starting on Friday, November 19, according to a press release from the team. Per the announcement, the team store at Progressive Field will open that morning with all the gear featuring the new moniker and logo. The change will also be reflected in the digital realm, as their website and social media handles will also be altered to usher in the new era for the franchise.

The club announced in July of 2020 that a name change was under consideration. Then the franchise finally announced in December of 2020 that a name change was forthcoming. In July of this year, it was revealed that the Indians would become the Cleveland Guardians after the 2021 campaign.  The club had been known as the Indians for more than 100 years.

This follows similar name changes for other sports teams, both amateur and professional. Many high school and college teams throughout North America have pivoted away from similar iconography in recent years, which was followed by decisions from pro sports franchises such as the NFL franchise now known as the Washington Football Team.

Latest On Seiya Suzuki

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Nov. 17: Suzuki is going to be posted next week, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. That would give him approximately one week to negotiate with MLB teams before the CBA expires on December 1.

Nov. 16: It had already been reported that the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball were planning on posting outfielder Seiya Suzuki for Major League teams this winter, and now the team has confirmed those reports. After the team made the announcement earlier today, Suzuki spoke to the media about his planned transition, as relayed by Nikkan Sports and Yahoo Japan. (Both links in Japanese.)

Although the club confirmed that Suzuki will soon be posted, it doesn’t seem as though the posting has been made official just yet. This is potentially an important detail because once the posting is made official, it starts a 30-day window for MLB teams to negotiate with Suzuki and his representatives. If that clock runs out without Suzuki having signed an MLB deal, he will return to the Carp.

This year, that has the potential to coincide with the December 1 expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, which could reportedly lead to a transaction freeze. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic addressed this issue, reporting that “MLB and NPB were close to an agreement in which that clock would be stopped in the event of an industry lockout.” The wording is vague there, making it unclear if the agreement is actually in place or not, but that would be another noteworthy detail in this saga. Hypothetically, even if Suzuki were posted tomorrow, just two weeks would transpire before December 1 and the expiring of the CBA. If a transaction freeze were then implemented, Suzuki’s 30-day clock would be paused, leaving him with more than two weeks of negotiating time after a new CBA is implemented and transactions are resumed. Of course, all of that is contingent on that MLB-NPB agreement having been finalized.

Suzuki, 27, has been one of the best players in NPB in recent years and figures to have a robust market once the posting is made official. MLBTR recently ranked him 20th on the annual list of top free agents, noting that he has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order bat with competent defense, and projecting he could land a contract of $55MM over five years. Since rumors of his posting emerged, he’s already been connected to the Giants, Rangers and Red Sox. Any big league team that signs Suzuki would owe the Carp a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. For example, if Suzuki were signed for $55MM as MLBTR predicted, the signing team would have to pay the Carp $10.125MM, bringing the total bill to $65.125MM.

Final Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Giants first baseman Brandon Belt was the only one of the fourteen players tagged with the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer this offseason to accept the deal, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). That means players like Justin Verlander, Freddie Freeman and Robbie Ray have all declined the offers, as had been anticipated.

Verlander was the only one of the aforementioned trio who ever looked like a realistic possibility to accept the QO, as he’s coming off a season lost to Tommy John surgery recovery and turns 39 years old in February. Astros owner Jim Crane told reporters last month that Verlander was looking for a contract “of some length,” though. He and his representatives found that multi-year pact on the open market, as Verlander quickly re-signed with Houston on a two-year guarantee with an opt-out possibility after 2022.

Freeman and Ray, meanwhile, made the very easy call to turn the QO. They’re among the top handful of players in this year’s class, with each likely to land a five or six-year deal that pushes well north of $100MM. There was no incentive for either player to entertain the possibility of taking a QO, since declining has no impact on their ability to continue to negotiate a longer-term arrangement with their incumbent clubs, as Verlander did with the Astros.

Here’s a full rundown of the players who rejected the qualifying offer (all other decisions had been previously reported):

Brandon Belt Accepts Qualifying Offer With Giants

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Brandon Belt is staying in San Francisco, as the MLB Players Association announced this evening that he has chosen to accept the Giants’ qualifying offer. He’ll play next season on an $18.4MM salary.

Belt has spent his entire career in black and orange, first joining the organization when they selected him in the 2009 draft. The left-handed hitter was in the big leagues by 2011, and he’s spent the past decade as the Giants’ primary first baseman. He signed a long-term extension in April 2016 to guarantee he’d spend at least his first eleven major league seasons in the Bay Area, and he’s now set to return for a twelfth.

This offseason would’ve been presented Belt with his first opportunity to test free agency. After ten days for he and his representatives at Excel Sports Management to explore the market, he’s decided to forego that possibility. Instead, he’ll return to a franchise and city with which he’s clearly comfortable on a strong one-year pact. The current collective bargaining agreement prohibits teams from tagging a player with a QO more than once in his career. Assuming no changes to that provision in the next CBA, Belt is on track to hit free agency next winter without draft pick compensation attached.

That’d only be necessary, of course, if Belt and the Giants don’t agree on another long-term deal within the next twelve months. Players and teams are free to negotiate an extension even after a player accepts the QO. That’s not common, but it’s also not unheard of. Over the 2019-20 offseason, the White Sox and José Abreu lined up on a three-year deal just eight days after Abreu had accepted Chicago’s qualifying offer. Belt’s reps have recently discussed the possibility of a multi-year pact, and today’s development wouldn’t foreclose them continuing to do so.

Regardless of whether a long-term deal gets done, the Giants are surely thrilled to welcome Belt back in 2022. Not only is he a respected member of the organization, he’s coming off perhaps the best two-year stretch of his career. Going back to the start of 2020, the 33-year-old owns a .285/.393/.595 line with 38 home runs across 560 trips to the plate. Among those with 500+ plate appearances, only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper have topped Belt’s offensive output, by measure of wRC+.

As he has throughout his career, Belt has backed up that bottom line production with elite batted ball metrics. He’s been in the top six percent of the league in each of the past two seasons in Statcast’s barrel rate — essentially how often he makes hard contact at the optimal angle for extra-base impact. His overall hard contact rate and average exit velocity are also above par. And Belt gets to that authoritative contact without selling out for power. His 24.8% strikeout rate over the past two seasons is only a tick higher than the league average, while he’s drawn walks in a fantastic 13.9% of his appearances in the batter’s box.

While there’s little question about Belt’s status as an impact middle-of-the-order presence, his profile isn’t without red flags. Because he signed a mid-career extension, his first trip to the open market was set to come in advance of his age-34 campaign. Teams have become increasingly reluctant to dole out lofty multi-year deals for players through their mid-30’s, and that’s especially true of defensively-limited boppers. And while Belt has been great when healthy, he’s also been dinged up fairly frequently throughout his career.

Since emerging as a regular in 2012, Belt has only topped 500 plate appearances in four seasons. He’s dealt with repeated concussion issues in the past, and he’s gone on the injured list four times within the last two years alone. None of those issues resulted in long-term absences during the season, but Belt underwent right heel surgery last offseason and wasn’t able to partake in the Giants’ NL Division Series in 2021 after fracturing his left thumb on a hit-by-pitch in late September.

Between his age, position and injury history, Belt apparently wasn’t generating such interest over the past ten days that he felt compelled to pass up on a strong one-year offer. He’ll return to the middle of the order on a Giants team that’ll enter the season with astronomical expectations after winning a franchise-record 107 games. He’ll be joined by fellow franchise mainstay Brandon Crawford, but the club will have their work cut out for them in replacing the production and presence of Buster Posey, after the likely future Hall of Famer announced his retirement two weeks ago.

Belt’s return adds $18.4MM to the 2022 books, but that’s well within their range of comfortability. The front office was content with the possibility of Belt returning at that price when they made the QO, with good reason. Even after factoring in Belt’s return, San Francisco has just $97MM in estimated commitments, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s well shy of the franchise’s $200MM heights, leaving plenty of room for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his staff to add to a roster that’s facing the potential departure of four-fifths of its 2021 starting rotation.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the news.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Raisel Iglesias To Reject Qualifying Offer

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Closer Raisel Iglesias will reject the Angels’ one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He’s still free to negotiate with the Angels on a new contract, of course, but will continue to pursue a multi-year arrangement in free agency.

Raisel Iglesias | Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

That Iglesias would reject the qualifying offer comes as no surprise. The 31-year-old righty (32 in January) is coming off arguably the best season of his career and is the clear top reliever on this year’s market. MLBTR projected Iglesias to secure a four-year pact worth $56MM on our recent ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and a strong three-year deal, at minimum, seems quite likely even with draft compensation now attached to the righty.

A look at virtually any relief pitching leaderboard will show Iglesias among the leaders in most key numbers. The former Reds stopper finished eighth among 144 qualified relievers with a 37.7% strikeout rate and also posted the ninth-best walk rate at 4.4%. Only two qualified relievers, Josh Hader and Liam Hendriks, topped Iglesias’ huge 33.3 K-BB%. Beyond that, Iglesias’ 20.6% swinging-strike rate trailed only Hader, and his 2.06 SIERA was second only to Hendriks. No reliever in baseball posted a better swinging-plus-called-strike rate than Iglesias’ 36.8% mark.

Statcast finds Igleisas similarly dominant, rating him in the 85th percentile or better in terms of hard-hit percentage, average exit velocity and expected opponents’ batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.

In terms of more traditional numbers, Iglesias tied for the fourth-most saves in Major League Baseball at 34 and finished 23rd among relievers with 70 innings pitched. That’s due largely to the Halos using him as a one-inning option, but Iglesias showed during his time with Cincinnati that he’s plenty capable of recording four-, five- and six-out saves when needed. His 2.57 ERA ranked “only” 29th among 144 qualified relievers, but as evidenced by the aforementioned SIERA, most fielding-independent marks feel he was better than that baseline ERA.

Simply put, Iglesias is a workhorse reliever who misses bats and limits walks at levels that place him alongside elite names like Hader and Hendriks. He’s appeared in at least 65 games and tallied at least 67 innings in each of his four full seasons as a reliever, dating back to 2017. Iglesias had a pair of month-long stays on the injured list due to minor shoulder troubles back in 2015-16, when the Reds were still debating whether he fit best as a starter or reliever, but since moving to the ’pen full time, he’s had only a single 10-day stint on the IL for a minor biceps issue.

If there’s one flaw in Iglesias’ game, it’s the occasional home run. His average of 1.41 homers per nine frames this year was surely higher than the Angels would’ve hoped, but his minuscule walk rate and paltry .207 opponents’ batting average and .243 opponents’ OBP meant that the majority of those round-trippers came with the bases empty. It’s not exactly a career-long issue, either, as Iglesias yielded just one homer in 23 frames during the shortened 2020 season (0.39 HR/9) and has averaged a more manageable 1.10 homers per nine innings in his seven-year MLB career.

Iglesias is the only reliever on this year’s market to receive a qualifying offer, but he’s superior enough in terms of age, track record and strikeout-to-walk profile that it shouldn’t prove to be a major hindrance to his market. Kenley Jansen, Kendall Graveman and Corey Knebel are among the names in the next tier, but Iglesias should be a lock to score the biggest contract of any relief pitcher this offseason.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Marlins Add Marcus Thames, Al Pedrique To Coaching Staff

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2:12pm: The Marlins have formally announced the hiring of Thames as their new hitting coach and Pedrique as third base/infield coach. Duncan will assume the role of quality assurance coach.

Additionally, the Marlins have promoted minor league hitting coordinator Edwar Gonzalez to the Major League staff. He’ll serve as the assistant hitting coach to Thames. Gonzalez, like Thames and Pedrique, has a lengthy history in the Yankees organization, where he spent nine seasons — including three as a minor league hitting coach.

1:44pm: Eric Duncan, who’s spent the past two seasons as the Marlins’ hitting coach, will remain on the 2022 staff, Mish tweets. It’s not clear yet what role he’ll be in, though it’s become increasingly popular for teams to employ co-hitting coaches.

1:37pm: The Marlins are set to announce the hiring of Marcus Thames as their new hitting coach, Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald reports (via Twitter). Meanwhile, Daniel Alvarez of El Extra Base adds that Triple-A Jacksonville manager Al Pedrique will join the Marlins’ big league staff as their new third base and infield coach.

Thames, 44, is a former big league outfielder who spent the 2018-21 seasons as the Yankees’ hitting coach. He’d spent the 2014-17 seasons serving as a hitting coach in the Yankees’ minor league ranks as well, but the team informed at season’s end that he would not return fifth year.

Even beyond CEO Derek Jeter, the Marlins have plenty of ties to the Yankees organization, so it’s not necessarily a shock to see Thames land on his feet in South Florida. Marlins vice president of player development and scouting Gary Denbo, a key executive in their baseball ops hierarchy, was hired out of the Yankees organization by Jeter’s incoming ownership group after several years in a similar role in the Bronx. Miami also hired assistant GM Dan Greenlee away from the Yankees not long after adding Denbo.

The 61-year-old Pedrique is a baseball lifer who spent parts of the 1987-89 seasons in the Majors as an infielder and has now spent two decades as a coach and manager in the minor leagues and big leagues alike. Pedrique had a brief stint as the D-backs’ manager in 2004 and has also spent time on the Major League staffs with the Astros and A’s. Pedrique has ties to the Yankees organization himself, as he managed at four different minor league levels in their system during a period that overlapped with Denbo’s Yankees tenure.

Latest On Justin Verlander’s Market

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1:47pm: The White Sox are also showing “strong” interest in Verlander, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. They’re planning an “aggressive” offseason, per Nightengale, and hoping to kick things off with a successful courtship of Verlander. Of course, the South Siders’ spring facility is in Arizona, which isn’t ideal based on Verlander’s reported preferences, but that certainly doesn’t rule them out of the bidding entirely.

12:58pm: Verlander has both multi-year and one-year offers in hand, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), adding that the right-hander could make a final decision as soon as this week.

11:47am: The Braves are also among the teams with interest in Verlander, tweets David O’Brien of The Athletic. Atlanta would align well with Verlander’s reported preference for an East Coast club with Spring Training in Florida, and their status as reigning World Series champions obviously helps when pursuing any older veteran prioritizing a contender. Of course, all those players inked sizable one-year deals, whereas Verlander may be seeking multiple guaranteed seasons.

The Braves had had few qualms about signing short-term veterans of this nature under under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos — evidenced by recent short-term pickups of Cole Hamels, Charlie Morton and Josh Donaldson.

10:46am: Justin Verlander has until 5pm ET today to accept or reject a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer (as do all other free agents who received a QO), but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject and fully explore his options. That’s due in part to Astros owner Jim Crane saying last month that Verlander will be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, but it’s also due to what’s reported to be strong early interest in the future Hall of Famer.

Verlander held a showcase for teams earlier this month — a step that would seem unlikely were he simply planning to accept the Astros’ QO — and his reps at ISE Baseball have had the past 10 days to gauge interest from other clubs. Ken Rosenthal suggested on MLB Network this morning (video link) that early indications are Verlander would prefer to sign with a club that holds Spring Training in Florida, which meshes with Joel Sherman of the New York Post reporting that several interested teams believe Verlander prefers to play with an East Coast club.

Notably, Sherman adds that both the Red Sox and Blue Jays — each of whom hold Spring Training in Florida — made “aggressive” offers to another high-upside, short-term pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery: Noah Syndergaard. Peter Gammons tweeted yesterday that Syndergaard had multiple offers at or near the $21MM price point for which he agreed to join the Angels, including one approaching $25MM in value. It’s not expressly clear that the Jays or Red Sox offered $21MM+ for Syndergaard, but it’s notable that both teams were aggressive on a fellow Tommy John reclamation play.

Verlander has drawn interest from both Toronto and Boston, per Sherman, who adds that the Yankees seem fairly serious with their interest in the 39-year-old. Verlander, somewhat notably, held his recent showcase at Cressey Sports Performance — the Florida-based training facility operated by Yankees director of player health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber did the same last offseason before ultimately agreeing to a deal with the Yankees. As noted at the time of the showcase, the location of Verlander’s audition alone doesn’t tip the scale in the Yankees’ favor, but it shouldn’t be completely overlooked, either.

Geographical preference notwithstanding, the best offer is likely to win the bidding for Verlander at the end of the day. It’s unlikely he’d leave an extra year or tens of millions of dollars on the table to spurn a West Coast team to sign in New York, Boston or Toronto. Factors like geography, Spring Training locale and familiarity with teammates (e.g. Gerrit Cole in the Bronx, George Springer in Toronto) are often, albeit not always, more tiebreakers when weighing comparable offers.

Tigers fans, of course, undoubtedly would love to see a reunion in Detroit and are surely heartened to see Verlander’s preference for Florida-based Spring Training outfits. However, Rosenthal also suggests that the Tigers may not be “in as heavily” as other interested clubs.

Ryan Zimmerman Leaning Toward Playing In 2022

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Ryan Zimmerman has only known one team throughout his 16-year Major League career. “Mr. National” was selected with the fourth overall pick by the Nats back in the 2005 draft, and it seems he’s leaning toward a 17th season in D.C.

“I still definitely am planning on playing [in 2022],” Zimmerman said in an appearance on 106.7 FM The Fan this morning (Twitter link via Federal Baseball’s Blake Finney), “but we’ll see what happens. No decisions either way yet.”

The latter half of Zimmerman’s quote leaves open the possibility that he’ll still ultimately opt for retirement on the heels of an outstanding career, but Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has already made clear that’s entirely Zimmerman’s call. Rizzo said plainly at season’s end that so long as he is GM, Zimmerman “has a place on this roster,” before going on to add: “…[W]henever he wants to take a major league contract, just call me up and we’ll give him one.”

Zimmerman, who turned 37 in September, has been a clubhouse leader for the Nationals throughout his time with the organization, serving as the face of the franchise through some ugly building seasons and ultimately emerging as a World Series champion with the Nats in 2019. A former Rookie of the Year runner-up, two-time Silver Slugger, Gold Glove winner and two-time All-Star, Zimmerman appeared in 110 games with the Nationals this past season and slashed .243/.286/.471 with 14 home runs and 16 doubles in 273 plate appearances.

Though not the feared middle-of-the-order hitter he once was, Zimmerman still torched lefties in 2021, hitting at a .291/.319/.582 clip with seven homers and 11 doubles in just 116 plate appearances against them. Returning for a 17th big league season would afford him the opportunity to chase down a few milestones as well; he’s just 16 homers shy of 300 for his career and would likely score his 1000th run in 2022 if he returns. Depending on how many years he feels are left in the tank, Zimmerman could also pursue the 2000-hit marker. He’s unlikely to get there as a part-time player in ’22, as he’s currently 154 knocks shy, but if he feels there are two seasons left in his bat it’s certainly possible.

Based on Rizzo’s comments, Zimmerman’s value to the franchise extends well beyond his on-field production. And, given that the 2022 season could represent something of a step back as the Nats evaluate younger players on the heels of a trade-deadline fire sale, it’d be easier (and arguably more valuable) for them to carry a revered veteran like Zimmerman. Washington will likely be considered a long shot (at best) to contend next year, and the Nats surely wouldn’t mind at least a year of Zimmerman’s influence and mentorship for the organization’s next generation of talent.

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