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Archives for May 2022

Mets Option Dominic Smith

By Steve Adams | May 31, 2022 at 2:06pm CDT

The Mets announced Tuesday that first baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse. Righty Adonis Medina has been recalled from Triple-A to take his spot on the active roster. Andrew Cohen of Sports Business Journal reported the news before the team announcement (Twitter link).

The demotion to Triple-A is the latest step in a pronounced downturn for Smith, who was one of the better hitters in the National League from 2019-20 when he slashed .299/.366/.571 through 396 trips to the plate. At that point, the former No. 11 overall pick and longtime top prospect looked to have finally solidified himself as a big league regular who could serve as a focal point in the Mets’ lineup for years to come.

The National League didn’t have the luxury of a designated hitter at that point, which complicated things from a playing time vantage point, given that the Mets also had Pete Alonso on the roster. Smith got a look in left field as the Mets hoped to keep both sluggers in the lineup, but through 1240 innings dating back to 2019, he’s posted dismal marks in the eyes of all defensive metrics (-7 Defensive Runs Saved, -8 Ultimate Zone Rating, -15 Outs Above Average).

Had Smith’s bat remained as productive as it was in 2019-20, perhaps the Mets might’ve lived with that poor glovework and given him a full slate of innings in left last year. However, Smith’s downturn at the plate began in 2021, when he slashed just .244/.304/.363 in 493 plate appearances. Smith told reporters this spring that he played through a small tear in his labrum last year (link via SI.com’s Pat Ragazzo), and he’s been been unable to rebound in 2022 while receiving sparse playing time alongside fellow defensively challenged slugger J.D. Davis. Smith has just 101 plate appearances on the year and has turned in a grisly .186/.287/.256 slash.

The Mets reportedly received trade interest on both Smith and Davis over the winter, but even after creating what looked to be an infield/outfield logjam they opted to hold on to both players. Between Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and offseason signees Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha and Starling Marte, it wasn’t clear just how Smith and/or Davis would fit into the infield/outfield rotation. So far, they really haven’t Smith’s 101 plate appearances speak to his limited use, and Davis has had even fewer plate appearances (90). Those plate appearance tallies haven’t been impacted by injury, either, as neither player has spent time on the IL in 2022.

Perhaps the Mets weren’t keen to sell low on Smith after he’d been such a productive hitter in 2019-20, but his stock has only dropped since the offseason. He’ll be able to get regular at-bats in Triple-A as he hopes to sort through his issues at the plate, and the hope is, of course, that more frequent reps at the plate will help him unlock his potential. Even if Smith rakes in Syracuse, though, he’ll still be looking up at the same crowded roster that led to such infrequent playing time to begin with.

Smith has been asked repeatedly about whether he’d prefer a trade to another team, and to his credit, he’s generally deflected those opportunities to speak out and stir the pot. Asked about the subject just two weeks ago, Smith reiterated his desire to play every day while continuing to speak positively about the Mets (link via Newsday’s Anthony Rieber). “I like where this team is going,” Smith said at the time. “I feel like I can impact this team in a number of ways, and that’s being [in the lineup] every day, in my opinion.” Smith did, however, acknowledge that the opportunity may not come with the Mets.

It’s a fine line for a player to walk, but it’d have been easy for Smith to clamor for a trade, either via interviews with the Mets beat or by more directly requesting a trade form the front office. To this point, neither has happened, though it’s feasible that being sent to Triple-A for the first time since 2018 (excluding a two-game rehab stint in ’19) could finally push him to do so. Then again, given his struggles since that huge showing in 2019-20 might make other teams wary to aggressively pursue a deal. A contending club, for example, isn’t likely to acquire Smith and plug him right into its everyday lineup, but it stands to reason that a rebuilding club might be more willing to do so.

Smith, after all, is controllable through the 2024 season, so he could be a multi-year piece should any team look to acquire him. Being sent to Triple-A won’t impact that timeline, as he entered the 2022 season with three years and 146 days of MLB service, meaning he needed only 26 days of service to reach four-plus years of service time. He’s already done that, so even in the unlikely event that he remained in Triple-A for the remainder of the season season, he’d still have the service time needed to qualify for free agency post-2024.

Optioning Smith to Triple-A should at least ostensibly appears to open some more playing time for the aforementioned Davis, who has top-of-the-scale exit velocity and hard-hit rates, even if the results aren’t there at this point. It could also mean some additional playing time for rookie Nick Plummer, who just surely turned some heads with a 4-for-8, two-homer showing in the Mets’ pair of games on May 29-30. With Canha, Marte and Nimmo all healthy, Plummer will be viewed more as a reserve option for now, but there’ll be some occasional outfield and DH at-bats available to him.

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New York Mets Newsstand Adonis Medina Dominic Smith

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Blue Jays Designate Ryan Borucki For Assignment

By Steve Adams | May 31, 2022 at 1:40pm CDT

The Blue Jays have designated left-hander Ryan Borucki for assignment and recalled righty Trent Thornton from Triple-A Buffalo, per a club announcement.

Now 28 years old, Borucki is a 2012 fifteenth-rounder who bolstered his stock with strong minor league production and earned his way to a big league debut in 2018. He impressed during that rookie season, too, looking the part of a potential rotation piece for years to come. Through his first 97 2/3 frames, Borucki notched a a 3.87 ERA with solid walk (8%) and ground-ball (46.8%) rates. His 16.1% strikeout rate was well south of the league average, but Borucki at least looked like a possible fourth or fifth starter whom the Jays could control for the foreseeable future.

Elbow troubles torpedoed Borucki’s 2019 season, however, depriving him of the chance to really build on that strong debut campaign. He avoided Tommy John surgery but nevertheless endured a lengthy shutdown period following tightness in his elbow. Borucki eventually had a cleanup procedure to remove multiple bone spurs from that elbow, which ultimately ended his season.

Borucki made just two starts during that 2019 season, and those proved to be his final two starts with the team. He was moved to the bullpen in 2020, where he fanned 28.8% of his opponents through 16 2/3 innings but also issued walks at an alarming 16.4% clip. That walk rate dropped to a more manageable (but still elevated) 11.2% in 2021, and but Borucki’s strikeout rate also dropped precipitously, falling to 21.4%.

This season, Borucki has been rocked for seven runs in his first 6 1/3 innings of work. On the whole, since moving to the bullpen, Borucki has a 4.82 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate against an ugly 13.7% walk rate. He’s absolutely overwhelmed left-handed opponents since moving to the bullpen and has generally been effective against them his whole career (.204/.282/.288). Right-handed opponents, however, have mashed at a .281/.361/.477 pace against Borucki.

Toronto will have a week to trade Borucki, attempt to pass him through outright waivers or release him. The fact that he’s out of minor league options and earning an $825K salary after avoiding arbitration this past winter give him a better chance to pass through waivers than the standard pre-arb lefty with options remaining. Still, left-handed pitching depth is always in demand, and a lefty with some success in the past plus a 95.2 mph average velocity on his sinker could well hold appeal as a change-of-scenery candidate.

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Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Ryan Borucki Trent Thornton

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Twins Place Carlos Correa On Covid IL

By Mark Polishuk | May 31, 2022 at 11:15am CDT

May 31: The Twins announced that Correa has been placed on the Covid-related injured list. Shortstop Jermaine Palacios has been selected to the roster as a substitute player in his stead and will make his Major League debut in Game 1 of today’s doubleheader in Detroit. Minnesota also tabbed righty Cole Sands as the 27th man for that twin bill, and he’ll make the first start of his big league career in Game 2 today.

Palacios, 25, was signed by Minnesota out of his native Venezuela as an amateur free agent back in 2013. The Twins eventually flipped him to the Rays in the 2018 Jake Odorizzi trade with Tampa Bay, but Palacios struggled throughout the bulk of his two-plus years in the Rays organization. Upon being released in the 2020-21 offseason, Palacios returned to the Twins on a minor league deal and placed himself back on the prospect map with a solid 2021 showing. MLB.com currently ranks him 29th among Twins farmhands, while Baseball America tabs him as the best defensive infielder in Minnesota’s system. Palacios hit .259/.340/.439 in Triple-A last year and is off to a .262/.325/.379 start in 2022.

Sands, 24, was the Twins’ fifth-rounder in 2018 and made his MLB debut with a pair of relief outings earlier this season. The Florida State product has had a rough showing in Triple-A so far, albeit in just five starts. He’s widely considered to be among the Twins’ 15 best prospects, thanks largely to a 2.46 ERA and 28.7% strikeout rate in 80 1/3 innings of Double-A ball last year. Sands hasn’t pitched more than five innings in an appearance since April 13, so he may be in for a relatively short outing today. He did toss three scoreless frames in his last Triple-A appearance a week ago.

May 30: Carlos Correa didn’t play in the Twins’ 7-5 loss to the Tigers today, and after the game, Minnesota manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters that it was learned mid-game that the shortstop had tested positive for COVID-19.  Correa will be placed on the COVID-related injury list at some point prior to the Twins’ doubleheader tomorrow in Detroit.

There have already been quite a few ups and downs over Correa’s first two months with the Twins, as he also spent 10 days on the regular IL due to a contusion on his right middle finger.  Correa also got off to a pretty slow at the plate, but is now hitting a lot more like his usual self, with an overall slash line of .279/.344/.407 with three homers in 154 plate appearances.  This works out to a 122 wRC+/123 OPS+, only a little below Correa’s career average.

However, Correa is now sidelined for a minimum of 10 days following a positive COVID-19 test.  As per league rules, Correa can make an earlier return if he goes 24 hours without a fever, tests negative twice, and gets approval from three physicians (the Twins team doctor, a league-appointed doctor, and an MLBPA-appointed doctor).

Correa joins Joe Ryan and Gilberto Celestino on Minnesota’s COVID list, one sub-section of an overall injured list that is worryingly long for the Twins.  Once Correa is officially added, he’ll be the 13th player on the Minnesota IL, and the club will also be short a few more non-vaccinated players for a series in Toronto on June 3-5.

Former first overall pick Royce Lewis had filled in at shortstop during Correa’s previous IL stint, but Lewis himself was just placed on the injured list today after suffering a bone bruise on his right knee after a collision with the center field wall in yesterday’s game.  This leaves utilityman Nick Gordon or regular second baseman Jorge Polanco as the likeliest candidates to cover shortstop in Correa’s absence, and third baseman Gio Urshela also has experience as a shortstop.

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Minnesota Twins Transactions Carlos Correa Cole Sands Jermaine Palacios

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J.A. Happ Retires

By Steve Adams | May 31, 2022 at 9:01am CDT

Veteran lefty J.A. Happ has retired after spending parts of 15 seasons in the Major Leagues. The 39-year-old discussed his career, his journey to pro ball and his decision to step away from the game in an appearance on the Heart Strong Podcast with Jessica Lindberg.

J.A. Happ | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Happ acknowledges that he went “back and forth for pretty much the whole winter” trying to determine whether he wanted to return for another season, going through his usual training regimen to be ready in case he felt a pull to return to the mound.

“It got to the point where it was Opening Day, and I turned the first game on, and I talked to my wife, Morgan, and I said ’What are you feeling?’ She just kind of looked at me and said, ’A little anxiety.’ I wanted to turn it on to see what I felt, too, and I didn’t maybe feel what I needed to feel in order to think I wanted to keep doing this. I felt like that was a sign, like ’OK, it’s time to go.’ Even though I had put the work in to be ready if the right situation came, I felt like it was time to move on and be a dad and dive into the kids. … It was emotional — something I didn’t expect. I called my agent that day, right after we turned that game on, and said, ’I think this is it.’ I told the people I feel like I needed to tell. I think I’m still processing it, but I do wake up feeling good about it, and I’m happy to start the process of being a full-time dad, for the time being, at the very least.”

Originally a third-round pick by the Phillies back in 2004, Happ made his MLB debut with Philadelphia in 2007, appearing in just one game. He pitched in eight games the following year, earning enough trust to make the team’s NLCS roster and turn in three sharp innings of relief. By the 2009 season, Happ not only established himself as a member of the Phillies’ rotation but took home a second-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting after logging a 2.93 ERA in 166 innings of work. He began that year in the bullpen but moved into the rotation in late May, going on to hurl shutouts against the Blue Jays and Rockies in just the seventh and fourteenth starts of his big league career.

Strong as Happ’s early work was, the Phillies couldn’t resist the temptation to include him as part of the return for right-hander Roy Oswalt — a three-time All-Star and regular Cy Young contender at that point in his career. That 2010 swap proved to be the first of several notable trades in which Happ was involved over the course of his career. The Astros included him in a massive 11-player swap with the Jays that saw Happ land in Toronto and a then fresh-faced prospect named Joe Musgrove among the most notable names sent to Houston. Happ was also swapped straight up for outfielder Michael Saunders in 2014, and after returning to the Blue Jays on a three-year, $36MM deal as a free agent, he was flipped to the Yankees for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney in the final season of that pact.

Happ was never a flamethrower or a perennial All-Star, but he carved out a lengthy career as a mid-rotation starter in the perennially dangerous American League East, spending six of his 15 years with the Jays and another three with the Yankees. From Happ’s peak in 2014-20, he notched 1058 2/3 innings of 3.81 ERA ball — a strong run that included an All-Star nod in 2018 and a sixth-place finish in 2016 American League Cy Young voting. His consistency netted him a trio of sizable free-agent contracts: his aforementioned $36MM deal with the Blue Jays, a two-year Yankees deal worth $34MM, and a one-year deal with the Twins that promised him $8MM just last season.

All in all, Happ steps away from the game with a lifetime 133-100 record, a 4.13 ERA, 1661 strikeouts, four complete games and three shutouts compiled while suiting up for eight teams: the Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Astros, Twins, Mariners, Pirates and Cardinals. He reached the postseason six times, winning a World Series ring with the 2008 Phillies and pitching well in four of those six playoff runs. (He made one start with the Yankees both in 2018 and 2020, neither of which went particularly well.) Between the three previously referenced free-agent deals and his arbitration seasons, Happ earned more than $97MM in a career pegged at 21.5 wins above replacement by Baseball-Reference and 21.8 WAR by FanGraphs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images/Imagn.

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Houston Astros Minnesota Twins New York Yankees Newsstand Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays Transactions J.A. Happ Retirement

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Brewers Place Brandon Woodruff On IL With High Ankle Sprain

By James Hicks | May 30, 2022 at 11:01pm CDT

The Brewers have placed right-hander Brandon Woodruff on the 15-day IL with a high ankle sprain (retroactive to May 28th), reports Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter link). The severity of the injury is not yet known, but it will come as a blow to a team already dealing with the long-term absence of Freddy Peralta. Right-handed reliever Peter Strzelecki has been selected from Triple-A Nashville to take his place on the active roster.

Woodruff left in the fifth inning Friday’s game against the Cardinals with what was then termed ’right ankle irritation,’ though it now appears the injury is somewhat more serious. In words that will hardly come as comfort to Brewers fans, manager Craig Counsell described the injury (per Hogg) as “very similar” to Peralta’s, but it isn’t clear if he’ll need as long to “calm [the injury] down” as does his teammate.

Among the best pitchers in the National League since becoming a full-time starter in 2019, Woodruff had gotten off to a comparatively weak start to 2022, posting a 4.74 ERA (against a career mark of 3.36) and 3.82 FIP (career 3.23). The underlying metrics disagree a bit as to the cause. He’s allowed a .315 BABIP this season (against .264 in 2021 and .289 for his career) and 3.8% home run rate (2.5% in 2021 and 2.7% career) — both largely explicable via a rise in hard-hit percentage (the percent of batted balls leaving the bat with an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater) from 32.7% in 2021 (33.9% career) to 42.6% — but his strikeout rate of 28.5% (against 29.8% in 2021 and 28.3% for his career) and walk rate of 7.0% (6.1% in 2021, 6.5% career) remain largely unchanged.

Regardless of the cause of Woodruff’s regression, his absence presents an immediate difficulty for the first-place Brewers. With a rotation anchored by Woodruff, Peralta, and 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes alongside the unheralded but consistently solid Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser at the back end, the Brew Crew entered 2022 with a solid case for the best rotation in the game. Former top prospect Aaron Ashby has already shifted from swingman to rotation to take Peralta’s spot, but it’s less clear who’ll take Woodruff’s turns.

Left-hander Ethan Small — the club’s top pitching prospect since Ashby’s graduation — has already been called up and will likely get the first crack, but he’s less of a proven commodity than Ashby. The 25-year-old Mississippi State product is off to a hot start at Triple-A Nashville, posting a 1.88 ERA in 38 1/3 innings across eight starts, but he’s still a bit green (he’s only logged 136 2/3 innings in the minors) and has had some issues with control. While his 32.5% strikeout rate across those minor league innings is top-notch, his 12.1% walk rate isn’t.

Small is set to make his major league debut today, in the first game of Brewers’ double-header against the Cubs. Should he struggle and Woodruff remain out of action for an extended period, the next option may be 35-year-old Josh Lindblom, who struggled to a 6.39 ERA in 62 combined innings with Milwaukee between 2020 and 2021 but is off to a strong start at Nashville, logging a 2.89 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 46 2/3 innings.

Strzelecki, a 27-year-old former undrafted free agent out of South Florida, has never started a game in the minors and will likely serve back-end cover for the bullpen for the time being. He has, however, been fairly consistent in his minor league career, posting a 3.73 ERA in 156 2/3 innings across all levels, including a 3.80 ERA in 21 1/3 innings at Triple-A. Never a heralded prospect, he’s nonetheless shown the ability to miss bats (with a 31.1% career strikeout rate in the minors) and keep the ball in the zone (7.6% walk rate).

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Milwaukee Brewers Newsstand Transactions Brandon Woodruff Ethan Small Peter Strzelecki

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Minor MLB Transactions: 5/30/22

By Mark Polishuk | May 30, 2022 at 10:30pm CDT

Wrapping up some minor moves from around the game…

  • The Angels announced that Jose Rojas has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A.  The utilityman was designated for assignment a week ago to clear space for other players returning from the injured list.  Rojas had only a .348 OPS over 23 plate appearances this season, after hitting .208/.277/.399 in 184 PA during his 2021 rookie season.  During his brief MLB career, Rojas has already seen time at five different positions, playing mostly right field but also getting time as a left fielder, second baseman, third baseman, and a couple of games at first base.
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Los Angeles Angels Transactions Jose Rojas

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | May 30, 2022 at 10:13pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat

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MLBTR Chats

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Phillies Activate Mickey Moniak, Option Bailey Falter

By James Hicks | May 30, 2022 at 8:04pm CDT

8:04PM: “I’m going to play [Moniak] a lot” in center field, Phillies manager Joe Girardi told MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki and other reporters, adding that Herrera could get some corner-outfield duty.

1:28PM: The Phillies have activated outfielder Mickey Moniak from the 10-day IL, the team announced today. The move follows an announcement that left-hander Bailey Falter was optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley following last night’s game against the Mets.

Moniak has yet to make his season debut after suffering a fracture in his right hand in the Phillies’ final game of the spring. The top overall pick in the 2016 amateur draft has struggled to match the expectations placed on a 1-1, logging a relatively pedestrian triple-slash of .255/.303/.406 in parts of six minor league seasons and a meager .128/.241/.192 across 55 plate appearances in the bigs, but he was the front-runner to take over the everyday center field job prior to the injury.

That job, covered thus far by a rotating cast that includes Odubel Herrera, Roman Quinn, Matt Vierling, and Simon Muzziotti, could still be his for the taking, though a recent hot streak from Herrera has pushed his season line (.270/.298/.494) much further into playable territory. Still, even with that recent boost, Phillies center fielders boast a combined wRC+ of only 73 — sixth-worst in the majors — and a combined batting line of only .218/.272/.346.

Even with Herrera proving capable cover in center of late, the injury woes of right fielder-turned-DH Bryce Harper have placed manager Joe Girardi in something of a bind. Due to a tear in his UCL that precludes him from throwing but not swinging a bat, the 2015 and 2021 NL MVP has been relegated to DH duties, forcing both of the Phillies’ defensively limited offseason outfield acquisitions — Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber — to play the field, a major contributing factor to the Phils’ worst-in-the-majors rankings in both outs above average (-20) and runs above average (-16).

Both Castellanos and Schwarber have contributed with the bat in Philadelphia, though neither has set the world on fire. Schwarber, who’s .181/.301/.398 batting line showcases an abysmal batting average offset by strong power and on-base skills, could be a candidate to take an occasional seat should Moniak prove himself capable at the plate. Moniak could also be used a defensive replacement in late-inning situations. Whether he’s deployed in this fashion or given a real chance to dislodge Herrera will likely go a long way toward showing the extent to which Phillies brass still view him as a serious prospect.

Falter, who’s posted a 4.20 ERA in 15 innings across six games (two starts), will likely be given the chance to stretch out as a starter in the minors. While he’s had mixed results in the bigs, the 25-year-old has been lights out in parts of two seasons in Triple-A, logging a 1.32 ERA while striking out 39.6% of the batters he’s faced across 41 innings.

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Philadelphia Phillies Bailey Falter Mickey Moniak

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Astros Notes: Altuve, Tucker, Odorizzi, McCullers

By Mark Polishuk | May 30, 2022 at 7:17pm CDT

While hitting a single in the seventh inning of today’s game, Jose Altuve collided with A’s first baseman Christian Bethancourt, knocking down players to the ground.  Altuve remained on the field and then played second base in the bottom half of the inning, but he was replaced prior to the bottom of the eighth and underwent concussion protocol.  Manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Danielle Lerner) that Altuve “didn’t look too good in the eyes” in the aftermath, and is planning two lineups for Tuesday’s game based on Altuve’s availability.

The star second baseman hit his 10th homer of the season in the 5-1 victory over Oakland, elevating Altuve’s fantastic slash line to .286/.349/.556 through 146 plate appearances.  Even despite Altuve’s importance to the Astros lineup, it is possible Baker could opt to give him an off-day tomorrow just as a precaution even if he clears concussion protocol.  Mauricio Dubon and Aledmys Diaz are on hand to fill in at the keystone, though naturally the Astros would be in trouble if Altuve had any lingering concussion symptoms that forced him to miss an extended amount of time.

More from Houston…

  • Kyle Tucker missed the last two games since leaving Saturday’s game with a sore left foot.  Baker told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reports that an MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, so Tucker is just day-to-day for now.  While Tucker hasn’t matched the heights of his breakout 2021 season, the outfielder has still been quite solid, hitting .239/.335/.439 with eight home runs in 179 PA.
  • Jake Odorizzi tossed 41 pitches during a bullpen session on Sunday, his third bullpen session since suffering a lower leg injury earlier this month.  Odorizzi told Brian McTaggart and other reporters that wasn’t a clear timeline yet in place, though he figured he would be able to get back to action relatively quickly since his arm  wasn’t impacted by the injury, but such aspects as “strengthening, positioning, mobility” still need work.
  • Talking to The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome (Twitter links) and other media on Friday, Lance McCullers Jr. said he is roughly at a “mid-January” place in relation to the usual rhythms of his offseason prep work.  McCullers suffered a right flexor tendon strain during the playoff last year, and then hit a setback while rehabbing the injury during the winter.  While there’s still obviously a ways to go, McCullers has been hitting some gradual checkpoints in his recovery, including throwing off the rubber for the first time on Friday.
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Houston Astros Notes Jake Odorizzi Jose Altuve Kyle Tucker Lance McCullers Jr.

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White Sox Place Dallas Keuchel On Release Waivers

By Mark Polishuk | May 30, 2022 at 5:39pm CDT

TODAY: The Sox announced that Keuchel has been placed on unconditional release waivers.

MAY 28: The White Sox announced that veteran left-hander Dallas Keuchel has been designated for assignment.  Infielder Danny Mendick was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

The move all but certainly ends Keuchel’s stint on the South Side after 51 games and 257 1/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season.  It doesn’t seem likely that another team would claim Keuchel off waivers, since such a move would put that new team on the hook for the roughly $14.1MM Keuchel is still owed for the remainder of the 2022 season.  Should Keuchel clear waivers and then be released, the White Sox would pay the remainder of that salary, and a new team who signed Keuchel could only owe the lefty the prorated MLB minimum salary.

Keuchel signed a three-year, $55.5MM free agent deal with Chicago in the 2019-20 offseason, one of several notable moves made that winter to signal that the Sox were now aiming to win following a rebuilding phase.  The initial returns on the signing were great, as Keuchel posted a 1.99 ERA over 63 1/3 innings during the shortened 2020 season and finished fifth in AL Cy Young Award voting.

Only some flashes of that good form continued into 2021, however, as Keuchel finished with a 5.28 ERA over 162 largely inconsistent innings with Chicago last year.  The decline continued over Keuchel’s first eight starts of 2022, as he has a 7.88 ERA and as many walks (20) as strikeouts over 32 innings.

Never a big strikeout pitcher even during his prime years with the Astros, there were plenty of questions about how well Keuchel’s low-velocity, grounder-heavy approach would hold up as he got older.  Between these concerns and a qualifying offer, Keuchel’s previous free agent bid in the 2018-19 offseason resulted in the southpaw having to wait until June (after the draft) to sign a prorated one-year deal with the Braves.  Keuchel pitched well enough over his 112 2/3 innings with Atlanta to then earn a longer-term commitment from the Sox that offseason, with Keuchel also no longer eligible for the QO.

Batters have a .364 BABIP against Keuchel this year, so there is some amount of misfortune baked into his recent results.  However, hitters are also making some serious contact (as per Keuchel’s barrels and barrel-rate metrics) against the left-hander’s offerings, and his sudden lack of control also isn’t helping his run-prevention efforts.  Keuchel’s 50.8% grounder rate is also the lowest of his career, though still an above-average mark league-wide.

Even with these struggles, it stands to reason that Keuchel’s track record will earn him some attention from one of the many teams looking for rotation help.  A strong defensive team would be a particularly good fit for a groundball pitcher like Keuchel — speculatively speaking, a Cardinals team that has lost Steven Matz, Jordan Hicks, and Jack Flaherty to the injured list could have interest in Keuchel’s services.

The White Sox have been no strangers to pitching injuries themselves this season, and their rotation picture wasn’t helped by Keuchel’s lack of success, even though he remained healthy.  With Keuchel now in DFA limbo, the Sox have Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, and veteran Johnny Cueto making up the rotation, and Lance Lynn is beginning a rehab assignment in his recovery from knee surgery.  Vince Velasquez could continue to make starts until Lynn is ready, but with off-days coming up on May 30, June 6, and June 16, the Sox will get some flexibility in figuring out their upcoming slate of pitchers.

In the bigger picture, it would certainly seem like starting pitching will be a target area for Chicago heading into the trade deadline.  Giolito, Kopech, and Cease have all been very good, Cueto has yet to allow a run over 12 innings of work, and the White Sox certainly hope that Lynn can return to his usual form once his rehab assignment is over.  However, depth is certainly still a concern, as Kopech’s innings will be managed and the Sox can’t know what to really expect from Cueto over the course of a full season.

As well as Keuchel performed in 2020, the signing still has to be considered a misfire for GM Rick Hahn’s front office.  Keuchel was owed $18MM in salary this season, as well as a $1.5MM buyout of a $20MM club option for the 2023 season.  That option was set to vest if Keuchel pitched at least 160 innings this season, but that threshold no longer seems a possibility, even if it never seemed particularly likely that the White Sox would let that option vest.

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