Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter. Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.
Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)
DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact. Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.
Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation. So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.
Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)
With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future. It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.
The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons. In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play. Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.
Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)
These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates. However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.
Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)
Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency. Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York. It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.
The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain. Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings. Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.
Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market. Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers. San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.
Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy. Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past. When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern. There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team. Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.
After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings. A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact. Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract. For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.
The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances. Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).
However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved. The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.
We’re going to be paying out the ying-yang this off-season just to hold onto the core of this team. But hey, what’s tens of millions to a billionaire who is richer today than he was before acquiring the Mets? I’ll answer my own question: Nothing.
It’s ALWAYS worth something. Signing players is a matter if dimishing returns. For example, does NYM make any more money next season after having brought back deGrom, Diaz, Bassitt, Nimmo, etc. back at raises? Cohen isn’t stupid. His first and only reason for owning NYM is MONEY. If those tens of millions woln’t earn the team profit/equity in kind, they woln’t be spent.
Terrible take but not surprising coming from a fan of a rival team lol
Don’t come crying to me when Cohen doesn’t exceed half a billion in payroll next season.
Not necessary, $340M should about some it. Maybe your team can sign another DH to play center field though.
Quarter of a billion and you still woln’t be able to score any runs off us.
I’m not sure how many people will be shocked when their team doesn’t spend twice the Dodgers payroll. I think we’re all already emotionally prepared for that.
And they woln’t, but suggesting they would is still less insane than pretty much anything this Books guy says.
Books (aka MetsFan22) is less of a Mets fan and more of an antagonist for people who aren’t Mets fans. Whatever makes him happy I guess.
We sure this guy is 22? I honestly find this guy MORE annoying.
Popped up around the same time MetsFan left with the same bias takes, and bashing opposing fans cities…etc. Seems like to much of a coincidence for me,but to your point, Books is far more aggressive and spiteful.
Take it down a notch there chap
If calling out other comments intended to troll makes me aggressive, so be it.
I already addressed the claims of alternate user names on the Tatis post, which I’m 100% sure you all read, and that is the last time I will dignify such claims with a response.
As far as opposing fan’s cities, I’ve lived all over the country so my opinions are well informed than most if nothing else.
Just click the little mute button, snowflakes, and go about your day. Nobody is forcing you to read or respond.
DodgersWorldChamps2020-2022 said in that Tatis article 16 hours ago:
“MetsFan22 was a very boastful Mets fan similar to you (and MarlinsFanBase) who hasn’t been seen since around the time you joined. He had a relatively similar style in Mets bragging. I can’t say whether or not you are the same person or not, but there is literally no reason for RandomMarlinsFanWhoIsNotIndicativeOfTheEntireMarlinsFanBase to be so obsessive when their own team is terrible.”
You claimed to be unaware of MetsFan22 yet seemed to have replied in the same reply-chains with MarlinsFanBase and MetsFan22 on multiple occasions. (to others, search on Google: “MarlinsFanBase mlbtraderumors”. some Marlins and Mets articles should show some of MFB/MetsFan22/Books replying to each other on occasion mostly during March-April of this year.).
Many times you’ve advocated for injuries to players, personal attacks on other fans at times, and also say you’ve lived all over the country yet always troll about and bring up the subject of “all the Braves fans and people in Georgia are backwards, inbred, and consume Tucker Carlson” a lot.
And 3 hours ago you went back to that Tatis article to reply to an unrelated comment claiming that certain commenter seemed like he was “like the guy who gets made fun of and says nothing until a year later when he finally thinks of a “good” comeback.” Seemingly ignoring the question and observation of MetsFan22’s being mostly absent since March 2022 and you joining in February.
Some of us deliberately avoid the discussions that are bound to be filled with trolling and smack talk because we’re not interested in trolling or talking smack or in hearing from those who come here mostly or entirely for that purpose. So please do us a favor and consider not bringing those pointless disputes randomly into the other discussions. It really isn’t helping.
Thank you.
Steinbrenner – you’re at least thoughtful in your reasoning. To put it plainly, it’s a conspiracy theory that you can’t substantiate and responding only adds some semblance of credence to the claim. In other words, I can’t prove it so why argue it? It’s not more complicated than that But I appreciate you at least trying to explain where this theory comes from.
As far as I’m concerned, the virtue signalers who choose not to mute or ignore me can only blame themselves.
Darkside, I don’t think so. 22 couldn’t put two sentences together without a grammatical or spelling error.
But if he is, that was some excellent trollling in character.
After doing a bunch of digging, here’s what I found to back up (and refute) your claims:
In the 3/14 article “Mets, deGrom Expected To Talk Contract After Season,” 22 commented “You guys think Cohen won’t resign him? Lol,” to which VonPurpleHayes responded that:
I actually don’t, but I don’t mean that as a negative thing. It’s very possible deGrom’s best years are behind him. This season will be telling. I have no doubt he’ll continue to dominate, but if he can’t finish the season, that’s a problem.
MetsFan22
Degrom is going to be good till 37 at least. Obviously he could still get hurt. And he won’t what he is now at 37+ but he will be like Morton.
VonPurpleHayes
Not commenting on his talent. Just his health. I’ve seen Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay go from all-time great to done in a season. Theoretically, deGrom can go that route too. I certainly hope not. He’s amazing to watch.
Books then inserted himself into the conversation by taking a similar tack to 22’s comment above: “ Lee and Halladay were significantly older, no?” VonPurpleHayes did not respond.
None of this proves anything other than Books did encounter 22 in at least one one occasion, which of course can be forgotten after several months.
On the other hand, the two accounts took opposite views in the article “Phillies sign Kyle Schwarber,” with Books commenting “ Defense is not a concern in Philly, apparently,” while further down, independently, MetsFan22 commented “ This is not good for the Mets. We need some lefty RP.”
The DeGrom article is the only article I can find in a span of 3 weeks of archives where the two of them were in the same thread.
In the article “Phillies Sign Nick Castellanos,” Books commented that “ @MarlinsFanBase made a few racist comments and that was all I needed to hear from him. He’s what the mute button was made for,” but in the article “ Minor MLB Transactions: 3/26/22,” shortly after the Castellanos article, Books replied to MarlinsFanBase, saying that “I guess @MarlinsFanGirl doesn’t know as much about his team as he touts. Dude’s been talking up de la Cruz all winter. Ha.” This clearly demonstrates that Books had either not muted MarlinsFanBase or had shortly unmuted them.
in short, there is not a lot of evidence that Books is the same person as MetsFan22. If he was, it would likely require a lot of intent and planning, which probably isn’t worth it.
@DodgersWorldChamps
I stand corrected. From what you are saying, I did encounter “22” on a few posts months ago. I don’t remember every single conversation or account I’ve interacted with here.
Makes sense.
You are 4-11 this year against the Mets. That was a silly comeback.
I don’t think DS ever played against the Mets.
Yes, and your team is better. Will they be next year though? That remains to be seen.
This is not true. Most baseball owners don’t make much money off of the teams until they sell the team . Cohen knows if he is able to create a dynasty here then the Mets will be a more valuable asset for him. The Mets Will make a competitive offer to anyone that can make their team better. Including resigning current players.
A little bit of investment 101: the rate of return on a capital investment is what sets its market value. They don’t increase in value all by themselves. Baseball teams return on capital on an increasing basis. This is why they increase in market value, not for some magical reason. The people who invest billions know this full well, even if a lot of walking around type people don’t get it.
Diminishing returns on the asset as defined by the player is almost always guaranteed, they’re like new cars off the lot.
The benefit is in total franchise value which can be leveraged financially, yes, but even more so, in a social clout and equity sense.
It’s that kind of influence and constant free advertising as a financial guru type that is beyond measurable in a cost : benefit analysis to a guy in Cohen’s seat.
Inversely; failure, at a franchise level, not just on the field, can do damage to that same clout and social equity the likes of which can never be recovered (see; McCourt, Frank. McNall, Bruce. Etc.).
As Jeff Bridges’ character in The Old Man said, “It’s only money.”
Jeff Bridges just wants a new rug man.
Let me have another look. It’s in there somewhere.
Even if Wainwright does retire, he had a very good career with 2 WS rings and have a battery partner that been through with him his whole career.
Kershaw’s mindset is he will pitch for as long as he feels he’s contributing, but if the Dodgers win it all this year with him playing in the postseason, I believe he will call it a career.
Agreed
Manea would accept a QO, there is no way he gets a higher AAV in free agency and I don’t think it would even be close. Clevinger on the other hand I could see having somewhat high demand, still unsure if he would have a higher AAV though.
Would be interesting to see waino come back. I think a lot depends on how this season ends.
He might not get a higher aav, but he will absolutely get a bigger overall guarantee, which is what a lot of players care about.
That’s a fair point but I can’t see him turning down a QO, can you? Think about what a contract for him looks like, probably somewhere close to what Steven Matz got (4/44). At that point, it’s worth rolling the dice and accepting the QO, seeing the team that has been built and plan to have a better FA period the following year.
4/$44m is way better than 1/$19m. Especially for a pitcher.
Carrasco’s option won’t need to be exercised. It vests when he hits 170 IP. He only needs 45.2 more with ten more likely starts.
thats if the team doesnt go to a 6 man rotation which seems inevitable with megill coming back soon and peterson coming up when rosters expand. Curious if it will be accepted by degrom and scherzer though or if they will just push back the other starters back
Megill and Peterson are likely going to the bullpen unless Walker continues to falter.
Tyler Anderson’s stats this season are incredible. If he keeps it up near this pace for the remainder of the season, I have to believe the Dodgers or some team will offer him some serious bucks.
Yeah, and I suspect the Dodgers will make him a QO. By the numbers he definitely isn’t an edge case.
I have a hunch that if the Mets make it to the World Series and win, they let DeGrom walk. I know it would make the fans crazy, but from a business investment, he’s risky. When he is out there he is incredible, but I fear he is going to be the next Chris Sale or Strassburg, always injured, and always rehabbing.
It would be awesome to see him retire a Met, but it’s hard to argue with your hunch.
The fan is me wants him to stay a Met forever, but that $40 plus million can be put to other uses to either extend some current core players or seek other options on the market.
I’ll disagree with that hunch. When deGrom finishes out this season, he will opt out but resign with the Mets! Pitching wins in the playoffs and Cohen will want the best chance to do that and that’s with deGrom!
LFGM!!!
I hope you’re right, nbresnak
Still a team has to be willing to pay him more than the Mets are willing. Due to his legacy in NY he is more valuable to the Mets than anywhere else. It doesn’t mean a team won’t outbid the Mets I just don’t think it’s very likely.
Manaea is not borderline. If Preller QOs him, he’s falling for the sunk cost fallacy
only having to commit one year to him is definitely attractive, though. Granted he’s been less valuable this year than the QO would pay out, so it depends if you think he’ll rebound to something like a 2 fwar pitcher in 2023.
I could see the Dodgers offering Anderson a 2/$22M or 3/$30M contract but I don’t see them offering a QO. It will be interesting to see how Anderson and his agent values him after such a dominant season.
Now you have to tell us where you can find this kind of starting pitching performance for under $20M, and on a one-year contract besides. So many factors go into whether a player receives a QO, and this is one of them.
Got into the same debate last year over Chris Taylor’s QO. He was also rated as an edge case. Heard an awful lot of pushback to my argument that he was a lock to get one.
Very inconsistent career could make him an edge case for some teams, but I agree that the Dodgers offer him one without thinking about it much.
“… the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future.”
1. Extending him a QO only deprives him of having time to make a decision on his future if he accepts it.
2. Based ok the amount of money the Dodgers paid Kershaw for 2022, it’s pretty clear the real reason they didn’t QO him is because they didn’t think he is worth that much money at this point.
Not really on #2. The guarantee he received was almost exactly the same as a QO, and included escalators for performance. So they were actually prepared to pay him more. The first one is the actual reason is why they didn’t make the QO. The Dodgers knew if he decided not to retire that it was only a matter of settling on the terms. He didn’t, and they did.
If they were actually willing to pay him that kind of money the QO would have been automatic. You aren’t doing a guy a favor by declining to extend the QO if you don’t think the player is worth that $. The only person the Dodgers were doing a favor there is themselves.
I still can’t stop laughing at the people who said he would sign with the Rangers last offseason. They’re probably going to say it again this coming offseason.
They were not only willing to pay him that much they actually did pay him that much. So not the reason at all, obviously. I won’t get into any debates over who was doing who any favors, but clearly the Dodgers gave him the space to decide, and the move also showed their confidence. But I agree the Texas rumor was a total fantasy, which didn’t stop it before so no doubt it will rise again.
Once again. QOing him doesn’t preclude him from having “the space to decide.” He doesn’t have to accept the QO if he doesn’t want to. If he doesn’t accept he can take as long as he wants to sign with whomever he wants.
Since we’re doing the once again thing, once again, they paid him that much. So that makes your second theory inoperative, and I don’t know where that leaves the first one.
Leaves it exactly where it was in the first place: 100% accurate. QOing Kershaw or any other player doesn’t stop that player from doing anything.
No, it leaves with no basis in reality. Sorry, but that’s the truth.
There is no basis in reality to say that a player who receives a QO doesn’t HAVE to accept it?
As for “the Dodgers already did pay him that much,” players care MUCH about guaranteed money than appearances/performance based incentives. The Dodgers prefer the contract Kershaw signed over him accepting a QO. They only have to pay him more if he deserves it. This type of thing is precisely why the White Sox threw everything but the kitchen sink trying to avoid guaranteeing that last $50m to Manny Machado and why he signed with the Padres instead.
Sorry, not really right. He is guaranteed $17M for the season (just below the QO) plus $1M for 16 starts, and another $1M for starts 20, 22, 24, and 26. He’s also eligible for a $1.5M bonus for finishing in the top three in CY voting. He’s just one start shy of the first bonus and it seems likely he makes the next two, at least.
I don’t pretend to know what the Dodgers “prefer,” but a couple things were completely clear about what was coming down. First, Kershaw has signed performance bonus contracts more than once. So he is obviously comfortable with them. So that was almost certain to happen (and some of us actually said so at the time). Second, based on what as said by Friedman over the winter, it was pretty clear the Dodgers were very confident that if Kershaw didn’t decide retire that he’d be back with the Dodgers. And what do you know if that didn’t happen? So, bottom line, they had little reason to force Kershaw to accept or reject anything until he’d made up his own mind to play this year. It’s called respect, and they gave him some. These things matter.
Anyway, it’s funny how some seem to not see ballplayers as human beings.
Because it needs to be repeated 45 times, extending a QO isn’t “forcing” a player to do anything. And declining to extend it is not “respectful.”
I don’t work in a front office either but I have to believe most teams would prefer performance-based contracts. Even if it ultimately means they end up paying more it also means the player is worth what they are being paid.
Whether you like it or not, MLB is a business above all else and ballplayers are regarded as assets.
No mention of Nick Martinez? Has a lower ERA than Sean Manaea this year.
He should opt out, but if he got a QO I think he would accept because he’s not going to be able to pull that kind of AAV over a multi-year deal.
I can’t see someone signing him for like 4Y/$76M or 3Y/$57M, that’s a huge guarantee. He’s got 3Y/$18.5M left on his current deal, even if doubles that the AAV is still way under.
Why Preller thought it was a good idea to give him and Profar opt-outs after every season is beyond me.
It makes no sense. I get how guys like Machado have enough leverage to get an opt out put into their deal, but Martinez was coming back from overseas and they gave him multiple opt-outs?
Suarez has an opt out too, so if you look at the guys who have player options, 3 of the ones with the smallest salaries are SD deals. Lot of player options being given to mid-tier players there
If I’m Cashman, I offer Taillon the QO and hope he rejects it. Then I sign a better pitcher, say Rondon and the draft choices more or less cancel each other out.
I would bet all of the borderline candidates will be offered qualifying offers and rejected. Quality starter pitching is hard to come by and they can all make more on at least short term deals.
Rodon should have been an easy call last year.
Agree
There was some talk that he and the White Sox had a handshake agreement for no QO. We’ll never know for sure because if they did have such an agreement they wouldn’t be allowed to say it in public or put anything in writing.
Ross Stripling? Probably has earned consideration. I think he’d likely accept but he’s probably worked his way up to a 3/$36M free agent deal…