Four of the Blue Jays’ five starting jobs are set. Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman both had great seasons last year and will be back in 2023. José Berríos is coming off a disappointing season but has a strong track record and six years left on his extension, making him a lock on another spot. Chris Bassitt will also be in there after the club agreed to give him $63MM over three years this winter, in addition to surrendering a draft pick and international bonus space because Bassitt rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets.
The final spot is less certain, however, with a few potential options that could step up and take the job. Hyun Jin Ryu is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and could be back around the All-Star break, though that’s still an estimate at this point. Someone will have to take the fifth spot for at least the first half. Even if Ryu does meet that timeline and comes back for the second half, it’s possible that an injury to one of the other pitchers creates a continued need for another arm. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the candidates.
Kikuchi is probably considered the frontrunner for the fifth starter right now, just based on experience. After years of strong work in Japan, Kikuchi came over to North America by signing with the Mariners prior to 2019. He spent three years with Seattle, posting some intriguing but inconsistent results.
He reached free agency after 2021 and signed a three-year, $36MM deal with the Jays. He made 2o starts last year but got bumped to the bullpen after registering a 5.25 ERA in that time. He’d go on to toss 18 1/3 innings in the bullpen with a slightly better 4.91 ERA, though the underlying numbers were more encouraging. His 24.5% strikeout rate as a starter jumped up to an incredible 39.8% rate as a reliever, while his control also improved. He posted a 13.2% walk rate in the rotation but walked just 10.8% of batters faced out of the ’pen. A .371 batting average on balls in play as a reliever perhaps helped to push his ERA up, with his 4.15 FIP and 2.28 xFIP suggesting he deserved better, though it’s also possible he was just getting hit hard.
That’s a small sample size but it perhaps suggests there’s a chance Kikuchi has a nice floor as a left-handed reliever if he eventually gets pushed out of the rotation for good. However, it’s also possible he gets another chance to start since he’s the most experienced of this bunch, turning 32 in June. He can at least bring some velocity, as he averages around 95 mph on his fastball, one of the best such marks among left-handed starters in the game. But it doesn’t seem to be a challenge for big league hitters, as Kikuchi ranked in the first percentile last year in terms of barrel rate, hard hit rate and average exit velocity. He has a 5.02 ERA through 466 1/3 MLB innings at this point and will have to figure out a way to get better results. Even if he gets the fifth starter job out of Spring Training, he should have other guys on his heels throughout the season.
White, 28, was a second round pick of the Dodgers in 2016 and had been a well-regarded prospect in the years after that. He’s spent the past three years without a firm role, frequently being optioned to the minors and recalled to the majors as needed, making starts but also relief appearances.
In 2021, he made 21 appearances in the majors, including four starts. He tossed 46 2/3 innings with a 3.66 ERA, getting grounders at a 47.7% rate while striking out 24.9% of batters faced and walking 8.6% of them. Things went even better in 43 2/3 innings in the minors, with White posting a 1.65 ERA, with a 30.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate.
In the first few months of 2022, White only made a couple of Triple-A appearances, spending most of his time with the big league club. He made 10 starts and five relief appearances, logging 56 innings. He had a solid 3.70 ERA and 8% walk rate, though his strikeout rate dipped to 19.8%. The Blue Jays acquired him at the deadline but the switch didn’t help his results. He made 10 appearances for the Jays, including eight starts, and posted a 7.74 ERA in that time. His walk and ground ball rates stayed around average but his strikeout rate fell even further to 15.3%.
Despite that rough start to his Toronto tenure, there’s plenty to like in White overall. He was in the 79th percentile last year in terms of hard hit rate, 77th in barrel rate and 63rd in average exit velocity. His .276 BABIP as a Dodger and .368 mark as a Blue Jay explain the different results somewhat. All of the advanced metrics liked his Toronto work much better than that huge ERA, including a 3.76 FIP, 4.68 xFIP and 4.70 SIERA. White is now out of options so the Jays will have to keep him in the bullpen as a long man if he doesn’t snag the rotation job, but he has five years of control remaining and should get some starting opportunities whenever the circumstances allow.
Pearson, 26, arguably has the most upside of anyone on this list. Selected by the Jays in the first round of the 2017 draft, he posted great results in the minors and shot up prospect rankings. Baseball America considered him one of the top 100 prospects in the game by the start of 2018 and he got as high as #7 in 2020.
Unfortunately, injuries have stalled Pearson out since then, as he hasn’t been able to throw 50 innings in any of the past three seasons. Elbow tightness limited him to 18 innings in 2020, plus two more in the postseason. The following year, he dealt with a groin strain and a shoulder impingement, then underwent surgery on a sports hernia at season’s end. Between the majors and minors, he tossed 45 2/3 innings on the year. In 2022, his early season ramp-up was delayed by mononucleosis and he then suffered a lat strain while rehabbing. He was only able to throw 15 1/3 innings in the minors, though he was healthy enough by the end of the year to play in the Dominican Winter League. He tossed 12 innings for Tigres del Licey without allowing an earned run, striking out 36.4% of batters faced.
The fact that Pearson finished the year healthy and dealing in winter ball is encouraging, but it’s hard to expect much from him in the immediate future. He might still be a big league starter someday, but after three straight seasons of injuries and scattered appearances, it’s probably unwise to expect him to suddenly jump to the range of 150 innings in 2023. When he was last healthy for an extended stretch, he pitched 101 2/3 minor league innings in 2019 with a 2.30 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. The talent is clearly there but his workload capacity is an unanswered question.
Hatch, 28, was a third round pick of the Cubs in 2016 but came to the Jays in a 2019 deadline deal that sent David Phelps to Chicago. Hatch had an encouraging major league debut in 2020, tossing 26 1/3 innings with a 2.73 ERA. However, the last couple of seasons have been a struggle, with Hatch posting middling results in the minors and only getting into four big league games between the two campaigns. In 2022, he made a single start for the Jays and allowed 10 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. In 131 Triple-A innings, he had a 4.67 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. He’s still on the 40-man and has another option year left, but he’s likely just an emergency starting candidate unless he takes a step forward this year.
Francis, 27 in April, was a seventh-round selection of the Brewers in 2017 but came to the Jays in the 2021 Rowdy Tellez trade. He was added to the Jays’ roster in November of that year to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. Unfortunately, Francis scuffled last year, despite a scoreless MLB debut that lasted 2/3 of an inning. He tossed 98 1/3 innings in the minors with a 6.59 ERA, getting outrighted off the roster in June.
However, Francis suited up for winter ball, joining Criollos de Caguas in Puerto Rico. That stint has gone extremely well for him, with Francis making nine starts with a 1.51 ERA over 35 2/3 innings. He’s struck out 47 of the 136 batters he’s faced for an excellent 34.6% rate. He’s still a long shot to earn a spot with the Jays since he’s no longer on the 40-man, but he could be an interesting wild card in this deck.
The Blue Jays picked up some extra international bonus pool money by trading Kendrys Morales and Dwight Smith Jr. and used that to sign Zulueta out of Cuba in June of 2019, just before the signing period which began in July of 2018 was set to conclude. At that time, Zulueta had already been clocked at 98 mph, per a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
Since then, Zulueta’s rise has been stalled by a couple of factors. He required Tommy John surgery shortly after signing and spent 2020 rehabbing. In 2021, he faced one batter before tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee, wiping out the rest of that year. In 2022, finally healthy, Zulueta had a breakout year in the minors, going from Low-A to High-A to Double-A and then Triple-A. He posted a combined 3.72 ERA over 55 2/3 innings, striking out 33.9% of batters faced while walking 12.9% of them.
At the end of the year, the Jays added Zulueta to the 40-man to protect him from selection in the Rule 5 draft and Baseball America ranked him the second-best prospect in the system, trailing only the pitcher below him in this article. Zulueta is probably more of a long-term play than an immediate solution for the Jays. After some extended injury time, he still needs to build up his workload and refine his command. But once he does, he has a triple-digit heater that headlines a four-pitch mix. He turns 25 his month and has a full slate of options, suggesting there will be no rush to push him into the big league rotation. But as the Jays recently showed with Manoah, they can be aggressive with young hurlers once the pitcher shows himself ready.
Tiedemann, 20, was selected by the Jays in the third round of the 2021 draft. In 2022, he began the year in Low-A and then jumped to High-A and Double-A in his age-19 season. He tossed 78 2/3 innings over those three levels with a 2.17 ERA, striking out 38.9% of batters faced while walking 9.6% of them.
That performance led to him shooting up prospect rankings last year. As mentioned, BA now considers him the best prospect in the system, with Gabriel Moreno having been traded to the Diamondbacks in the Daulton Varsho deal. They also currently have him ranked the #28 prospect in the entire league, with MLB Pipeline similarly bullish by ranking him #33.
Like Zulueta, Tiedemann is probably more of a long-term play than an immediate option for the Jays. He’s still incredibly young and won’t be Rule 5 eligible until December of 2025. However, since he reached Double-A last year, there’s a chance he’ll be knocking on the door this year.
External Addition
It’s also possible that the Jays look outside the organization to find someone they like better than any of these options. The club has reportedly shown interest in Johnny Cueto, suggesting they could add a short-term veteran to take over and push everyone else down the depth chart. Cueto seems to have plenty of interest, with the Reds, Marlins and Padres among those who seem to be in the mix. If the Jays miss on him, some other remaining free agents include Michael Wacha, Zack Greinke, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. If the Jays are willing to swing another trade, the Marlins have plenty of arms available, the Mariners seem to have some openness to dealing Chris Flexen, while the Brewers seem stacked in the rotation and could consider trading someone like Adrian Houser.
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What do you think? Which of these guys will make the most starts for the Jays in 2023? Have your say in the poll below!
(poll link for app users)
Keep Kikuchi in the bullpen, seems like it’s his best role. Let Pearson, Bowden and White duke it out for the fifth spot
They need a Cueto or Wacha to hedge their bets on Berrios performance and injuries/depth. They can’t fool around with such a risk with the window closing
Agreed. The window is only open for so long. Act now and make your push
I have no confidence that White belongs anywhere near that starting rotation. Kikuchi has at least had some success at the big league level. Spring training may go a long way in determining who wins the job, but it should be Kikuchi’s job to lose (provided an external option isn’t brought in instead)
Pearson needs to be a reliever or will turnout like sanchez.
I love how mlb teams who spend millions on figuring out how to protect and keep pitchers injury free can’t figure it out but guys on mlbtr have the answers.
Sweet, right on. Pearson is a one inning max effort releiver. I wish the Jays would stop messing him up by trying to make him something he is not.
The Jays need three #5 starters. None of these guys on the list are any good and they have no quality depth ready in the minors.
As someone said above:
“Sign Bauer all those guys on the list are not good”plus two more.
These guys are only good in the Bullpen, there not bad but are okay.
The only acceptable answer is an external addition.
Generally it’s always internally, that’s what good teams usually do. Rays, guardians braves. Constantly paying free agent prices is a drain on resources. This is why it’s important to have a top farm system while entering a window. Teams like the Mets rangers and Phillies are always going to fail because they narrowed their window right away.
Evan Grant of Dallas morning news reports Rangers appear to be leader to sign Vladimir Guerrero’s son, Pablo Guerrero. Vladdy next when FA?
And He’ll probably be as good as Billy Ripken compared to Cal
Ya never know lol like Craig and Griffey Jr , Tommy and Hank Aaron , Joe and Dom DiMaggio etc , but take a look at this kid. Been reading about him for a while. Wish the Jays sign him. He’s a monster at 16.
I’m guessing Kikuchi
Lol at people saying there’s a window. The front office has stated repeatedly that the goal is to build a competitive sustainable winner & if anyone can do it it’s them.
I’d like an external addition depending on the trade cost, the money to sign a free agent is moot as there’s plenty of it.
If an eternal option can’t be had then I assume Kooch will be given a chance to start albeit on a very short leash, with Pearson, White or Tiedemann waiting in the wings. I think Zulu’s command issues probably relegate him to the bullpen.
‘If anyone can do it it’s them’
Jays have their highest payroll in franchise history, have a bottom 10 farm system, just traded their 1st ranked prospect and Bo and Vlad have 3 years of control left.
But sure, windows not opened/closing.
To add to that, jays team in 2021 had the cy young winner and 2 top 3 mvp’s.
That was a scary team that was hot down the stretch that could have made a serious run in the playoffs, but they didn’t because of the lack of urgency in fixing holes in the pen and losing games in May and June.
@dusty
Bang on about the 2021 season, I still don’t know how we didn’t add a reliever there.
I am confident they are making positive strides right now, I like the moves they have made this offseason, and don’t believe they are done.
As for minor league system rankings they change to often and too quickly to mean much, amd even if they aren’t rated top 10 as long as they have a few gems that’s all that matters
I enjoy your comments.
Mitch White was a decent 5th starter while in LA. Sure, not great, but he’s capable, definitely produce better number than Kikuchi before getting traded. A bit pissed off when the FO trade him to Toronto. And confused while he failed in his first year at Toronto
My guess is they run Kikuchi as the 5th SP to start the year since they’re paying him so much, but when he inevitably implodes White will get the nod. Advanced numbers look perfectly reasonable for a back of rotation arm. There’s no need to rush any of the prospects just yet, and if Tiedemann or another forces the issue then White and/or Kikuchi can easily transition to the BP.
If White looks good in ST though and Kikuchi doesn’t, I could see Mitch winning the spot out of camp.
White’s metrics suggest he had some really bad luck. Reminds me a bit of Stripling when we first got him.
Hes not a lost cause as most people are pegging him to be off the season he just had, but as we all know 2022 pitching stats mean nothing for 2023 and beyond
I went
Nice work Darragh. But why didn’t Marky Mark grab this one – he’s the biggest fan of the writers.
I went with White but Wacha makes the most sense. Pearson is a bullpen type and Tiedeman is at least 1 year away.
They should sign Wacha. Had a solid year in the AL East.
Would love that
I have almost ZERO confidence in Kikuchi! I hope that he can rebound…. But, I don’t think he’ll ever duplicate the success he had in Japan. Hoping one of the younger farmhands will be able to step in!
There’s also this guy named Trevor Bauer. Not sure if anyone remembers him, but he was a pretty good SP and would presumably be the best #5 on any team
But he is too much of a you know what.
Does any team want the drama is the question, it’s not a question of talent
Not sure why it deleted the comment, but Bauer is too “tough” for teams.
Sign Bauer all those guys on the list are not good
Options are gross, but technically Mitch should be the 4th starter and Berrios should be the 5th, maybe. Him or kikuchi are a toss up. Both horrible. We need to trade for another starter
Berrios had one poor season after a run of success, maybe its a little quick to just write him off?
They will likely have Kikuchi due to pay, but they really should have Tiedmann or White if they want to win. Or, they can sign “that superstar who played for that team who people say did that thing” and be bold. I really never understood how such a poorly-performing starter like him could be so overrated and overpaid.
Best route is acquiring a pitcher from outside the organization. The marlins is the place id start. Kikuchi showed a little promise in the pen last year, keep him there. White in the minors in case of injury
Pearson is the best option especially with Ryu coming back the second half.
Jay’s have the best team in baseball on paper. They are legit world series contenders.
I would sign Bauer and 2 competing pr firms…..but only after renewing Bo and Vlad
Or Wacha could be a nice piece, should run around 5-6 mill, so 12 in Toronto
I do wonder if you could run Pearson and the Kuch back to back for 3 innings each, for April into may and see who emerges….keeping both in the pen for emergency work as well.
It has to be an external if this team wants to legitimately compete. Our internal options are one pitch away from repeating a ‘possible’ wild card position as early as June. Bite the bullet and sign Bauer, if there’s one place to revive a reputation, it might as well be Canada.. second best option is to sign Wacha. We aren’t going to make a trade with any other likely teams at this point. Most of those teams are going to look for a mlb-ready first candidate and we already sent our best in Moreno and Gurriel Jr and Hernandez. I’d be so happy if they moved Kikuchi and full-time relief, numbers are far better and sign Fulmer. Call it an off-season.
They’re not likely to make a major trade but they could easily repeat something along the lines of the Matz trade. Matz took two fringe of the 40 man guys and a slow developing organizational prospect without much fanfare.
The Jays could do something like that. Otto Lopez is stuck behind Espinal and Merrifield even though he might be the best hitter of those guys. He could be a valuable enough trade piece to get something from a team like Milwaukee, Cleveland, Seattle who have some major league quality starters who might be pushed out of the rotation.
Yeah we also need to free up a 40 man slot for Belt so someone will be moved or dfad, so it’s very possible/likely we look to add another starter, move Kikuchi to the pen where his k/9 could play well and adds another lhrp which we need.
The Blue Jays fifth starter, I have been losing sleep over this one
No, not really
Sign Zack Greinke.
It should be Eric Lauer
Yusei…..”shudder”
I’m having nightmares tonight
Pearson lol He should be in the pen He guy is soft. Kikuchi is who they will go to considering what he’s making.
Given the luxury tax penalty doesn’t seem to be a concern following the Belt signing ($9.3 million for a pinch hitter and part time DH who can only back up Vlad and is 34 coming off knee surgery?), there is no excuse not to sign a 4th OF like Robbie Grossman who can rake lefties, as well as add MLB quality pitching depth like Cueto, Wacha, Greinke, Chafin and/or Fulmer. Time to bark with the big dogs!
As it stands now, they have Casey Lawrence and Drew Hutchison pretty high up this depth chart. I’m fine with White or Kikuchi as fifth starters, but I really don’t like the prospects of White and Kikuchi as number 3 and 4 and sorting through this list for a number five.
They have a really durable 1-4 which should protect from having to dig too deep into this list. But I also have images of Gausman taking a comebacker off his ankle last year, Manoah getting hit by liners in back to back starts with one of them being just above the elbow, and of course one of the more prominent moments of Bassit’s career with his scary incident. Being durable protects from wear and tear but not from sudden events.
By the second half of the season, maybe Tiedemann, Robberse, Zulueta (though he may have workload concerns so more likely a multi inning reliever role for him), could be nice internal options, but out of the gates, I would like to see another addition. Someone who could legitimately compete for the fifth spot but also maybe a guy with options who can be an up and down spot starter to buy them some time.
Bowden Francis is an interesting one. I was high on him as a depth starter entering last year based on scouting reports and performance in the upper minors. I was surprised at how poorly he did in Buffalo and also wondered why he got so little leash as a starter. Buffalo was down to a 2 man rotation at points last year and still Francis was only being used as a reliever. Strange for a guy who has a four pitch mix and was thought to have excellent command. Especially since he had previously had upper minors success.
He hasn’t been a part of the conversation in the media I follow at all, so this is the first I’ve heard of him playing winter ball. The fact he started is really interesting. I’d be curious to know how much of that was driven by the Blue Jays vs. just his own personal development decisions.
It’s Bowden Francis szn