The NL Central remains a hotbed of prospect promotions. Henry Davis is the latest big name scheduled to make his debut. Out west, Emmet Sheehan appeared last Friday. Unless you’re a diehard Dodgers fan, chances are you first heard about Sheehan’s rising star during our AFL coverage last fall. Sheehan tossed six scoreless innings.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Grayson Rodriguez, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
(AAA) 22 IP, 11.86 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 2.86 ERA
Earlier in the season, Rodriguez posted a 7.35 ERA in 45 1/3 Major League innings. His is a cautionary tale about pitcher prospectdom. Like many pitchers who sustain a lat injury, he hasn’t returned at the top of his game. In particular, his offspeed stuff and command haven’t been as crisp post-injury. He still profiles as a high-quality starter. There’s less certainty he’s an ace in the making. Since returning to the minors, Rodriguez has seen his swinging strike rate improve. He continues to walk too many hitters. His issues with the dreaded disease homeritis followed him back to the minors (1.23 HR/9). One straightforward path forward for Rodriguez is to get his BABIP and home runs in order. He posted a .372 BABIP and 2.58 HR/9 in his big league time. Per his 3.87 xFIP, which assumes a league-average BABIP and HR/FB ratio, a small adjustment could be all that’s needed.
Endy Rodriguez, 23, C, PIT (AAA)
227 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .245/.326/.380
Entering this year, Rodriguez appeared to be on the cusp of promotion. Since then, Davis leapfrogged him. Rodriguez’s surprise 2022 campaign was built upon a sturdy foundation of discipline and high-quality contact. The switch-hitter remains disciplined, but his contact profile has taken a step back. His exit velocities are acceptable but unexceptional. He isn’t hitting many fly balls with authority. The one thing I see jumping out in the data is a sharp surge in opposite-field contact. That indicates… something. Of what, I can’t be certain. Likely, the Pirates advised him to balance his previously pull-heavy approach. Perhaps reembracing his past tendencies might be the way forward.
Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AAA)
47.1 IP, 15.21 K/9, 7.04 BB/9, 3.42 ERA
From the four numbers reported above, the one that stands out is the walk rate. The good news: over his last five starts, he has allowed 4.35 BB/9. There’s no doubt about his ability to miss bats. It’s less certain if he’ll develop the command necessary to start. The Giants are carefully managing Harrison’s workload – perhaps with an eye on using him in the Majors later this season. He often works on six or more days of rest, and he’s yet to face 20 batters in a start. Even when he no-hit the Dodgers affiliate, Harrison was removed after four innings. If he arrives this season, such usage leads me to expect a bulk relief role. Those hoping Harrison will take the place of Alex Cobb are liable to be disappointed.
Brandon Pfaadt, 24, SP, ARI (AAA)
(AAA) 44 IP, 10.43 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 3.89 ERA
Like Grayson Rodriguez, Pfaadt had a rough go in his first taste of the Majors. He posted a 8.37 ERA. Unlike Rodriguez, ERA estimators didn’t care for his effort (7.16 FIP, 5.38 xFIP). In four starts since returning to the minors, Pfaadt has posted a 3.86 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings. Home runs continue to plague him, although that’s hard to hold against a pitcher in the PCL. When he was demoted, the Diamondbacks noted they would work on mechanical issues to get him back up to snuff. At his best, Pfaadt features four pitches he can use to generate whiffs.
Harry Ford, 20, C, SEA (A+)
280 PA, 8 HR, 13 SB, .249/.411/.410
The Mariners find themselves faced with a classic conundrum. Ford’s bat is substantially ahead of his glove. He could move to an easier-to-learn position and perhaps debut in 2024. As a catcher, we should expect him to advance level-to-level with a debut in 2026. Even then, it’s possible he’ll quickly move off the position like Daulton Varsho. Ford features excellent plate discipline and above-average power. His hit tool is trending as middling. The Varsho parallel is made all the more obvious by Ford’s rare speed for a catcher – a trait which would just so happen to make learning another position relatively easy. Reports (and journalists) praise Ford for his work ethic and amiability.
Three More
Junior Caminero, TBR (19): Though his pace has slowed since reaching Double-A, Caminero continues to thrive at the plate. One of the youngest players at the level, he’s hitting .297/.347/.438 in 72 plate appearances with two home runs. Encouragingly, his walk rate is up two points from his time in High-A. Many expect discipline to determine his final outlook.
Tsung-Che Cheng, PIT (21): One of the top-performing hitters in the minors, Cheng has greatly improved his prospect status this season. Defensively capable all over the infield, he’s now showing multi-faceted capacity as a hitter too. His once-minus power is approaching average. His plus discipline, contact, and speed could help the total package to play up.
Andrew Abbott, CIN (24): Abbott, who we covered in more detail shortly before his debut, is now 17 2/3 scoreless innings into his career. It’s looking rather fluky. ERA estimators range from 3.50 to 5.50. After missing piles of bats in the minors, he’s suddenly no longer inducing whiffs. He also isn’t avoiding hard contact. If nothing changes, the other shoe will drop in a big way. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with Great American Ball Park as his home.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Rodriguez…Rodriguez…Rodriguez?
What is Better Call Saul’s main competition?
When guys with stuff like Grayson Rodriguez get hit around it usually points to a loss of mechanics that lead to pitches being thrown in poor locations. Not saying he is suffering from a nagging injury, but when guys are injured, location will usually suffer before loss of velocity.
I read somewhere he threw a cutter way more often in the majors than he ever did in the minors, and that cutter was hit often and hit hard.
The point of the article was he simply didn’t trust his bread and butter pitches enough in the majors(fastball and change) which led to most of his successes in MiLB. The thought was that since he didn’t have supreme command of those two pitches in the majors for whatever reason (mechanical, the game between the ears, etc), he strayed away from them.
I think it was probably more mental than mechanics. He’s super competitive and that leads to him “trying to hard”, which I realize is not a quantifiable stat in today’s metric driven world. If he can harness the mental aspects, lookout. You see his stuff and it’s clearly TOR grade worthy.
TOR stuff indeed. Liked; “trying to hard”.
There’s gotta be tremendous pressure on a guy like him being labeled the next TOR can’t miss talent by those prospect evaluation services that grade out said talent and all. I wish him well … and not just because I’m an Os fan.
Some guys thrive on that stuff, some cower from it. You have to know who you are dealing with.
Being a catcher or a pitching coach is part psychiatrist too.
I laugh as Andrew Abboot continues to prove “experts” wrong. He has done it in college, the minors, and in the Show so far. Go get em, young man!
The point is, he has NOT done it in the minors. In the minors, he missed bats.
The bats are a whole lot better in the majors.
Shocking, I know.
I feel the same about Bryce elder, and all the experts crying about his underlying metrics not matching his current production, but he goes out every single day and gives the braves a chance to win by throwing 5-6 innings per start, and even though he did have a couple pedestrian starts prior to his last, they were still okay and he still sports an era under 3 proving all the analytic experts wrong. I love it, and I hope Abbott continues doing the same, under dog pitchers like elder and Abbott are great for the game, work horse pitchers that go out there, do their thing, and give their respective teams a chance to win each and every outing.
Endy had like a .275 babip last time I checked, which was yesterday. In 2021-2022, it was like .330. He hasn’t had a massive change in his batted ball profile, aside from the aformentioned opposite field contac. Babip better compares to the player’s average, moreso than the league average. Not too worried about his slow start.
Move Ford to second and see how he does there. That or maybe the outfield is his quickest and best option for the Mariners. I’d love to see him at second.
Biggio ring a bell?? Let’s GO!
There was some talk about him playing the infield, but that wouldn’t be a quick transition and they have a very promising Cole Young on the fast-track who will presumably take 2B at some point in 2025.
I think Ford might start seeing some time in LF… if he isn’t traded.
He’s being hyped so much, I can’t help but wonder if it’s intentional. Regardless, I seriously doubt he debuts next season. He’s in high-A right now and will probably get bumped up to AA at some point this season, but the sample size will be small and it’s not common to see players so young move from AA to MLB in a single season.
I agree he’s not up next year regardless of the position he plays. He’s not ready. I do think you can play him at second even with Cole Young. we’ve seen what can happen to a promising prospect like Evan White. Having multiple solid prospects that play the same position isn’t a problem until you don’t have a spot for them at the MLB level.
As for a trade I could see it. I don’t see the hype with Ford. Maybe he’s overhyped and they could take advantage of that? If anything I’d say our middle infield prospects are pretty stacked at this point.
There’s a wild card in this….
He’s been DHing a lot as well. It’s entirely possible they’ll groom him for a utility role where he primarily serves as the DH.
Geez these guys hate Abbott
Fraham_;
A very good reason why Mr. Abbott has a good chance to have a nice career.
Most of these evaluators don’t see the players play. Understandable as there’s only so much time to cover so many players. They tend to lean on 2 things: 1) what someone tells them about the player, and 2) what the public statistics
show.
The problem is that being brought along in the minor leagues has little to do with driving up a players individual stats. It’s about preparing youngsters to play at the ML level – something the better developmental organizations do well. As such players are working with their coaches on parts of their game – hitting or throwing certain pitches at certain locations; the pitchers adding movement to the ball, the batters countering the spin; batters doing situational hitting; fielding, and baserunning; and most importantly – how a player does in high pressure situations.
Fans have started to say that the playoffs are a crapshoot. Not really to those that follow the game closely. But coming to conclusions as to how minor league players will do in the bigs is far, far more of a crapshoot.
Today I was watching the Marlins-Jays game. The broadcasters made the point that Jon Berti played 8 years in the Jays minor league organization, and never looked like much of a player. Yet for years with the Marlins he’s not only been valuable hitting, but stealing bases as well as playing all 3 OF spots along with 3B, SS, and 2B.
Evaluator’s routinely miss on players the same way stock pickers on TV miss with their recommendations. The quality MLB organizations do a superior job of both evaluating and working with individual players to develop them at all levels throughout their career. They use scouts, proprietary software, and have superior coaches throught their organizations. One size does not fit all.
I don’t know how much of a dig this was at Abbott.
He’s been lucky. His ERA is a flat 0. His walk rates nor K rates have been strong and he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher. He’s had balls hit hard but right at defenders. It’s been 3 starts. Hard to draw many conclusions but he’s obviously been extremely lucky to have those kind of bottom line numbers.
He’s still an interesting prospect. The minor league work was very strong this year.
Pointing out that his extremely small sample has yielded fluky numbers is hating on someone? Reds fans are sensitive…
I really like Abbott. But if he doesn’t start missing bats or inducing mostly weak contact, he will have a 4.50+ ERA ROS. Especially at GABP where his extreme fly ball approach plays way down.
That’s just basic analysis. I can’t say otherwise just because I like the guy.
Fair enough. But here’s my issue with your response……
GABP is certainly a bandbox, possibly more so than any park in MLB.
Abbott is clearly a fly-ball pitcher. He was drafted by Nick Krall and his staff in 2021 that had to know he was a fly ball pitcher, and has been one in the minor leagues. Mr. Krall and his staff have proved themselves quite astute in this short-term rebuild they’ve done.
If it’s so obvious that Mr. Abbott needs to miss bats in order to avoid being a below-average pitcher for the Reds and is doomed – why haven’t they traded him by now or are they showcasing him in hopes of trading him?
One other thing – Derek Johnson is the Director of Pitching / Pitching Coach for the Reds. He’s clearly respected as an upper echelon pithing coach, and has a great track record in Cincinnati. Obviously he knows that GABP is a bandbox and that Abbott is a fly-ball pitcher. Might it be possible that the Reds FO, manager, and pitching coach are aware of Mr. Abbott’s situation and are working with him to be able to be successful pitching half his games in GABP?
Henry Davis, Andrew Abbot, and Harry Ford all sound like U.S. presidents from an alternate dimension.
Or leaders in the U.S. Armed Forces.
As long as that alternate dimension is as WASPY as this one…