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Archives for June 2023

Reds Outright Frank German

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The Reds have sent right-hander Frank German outright to Triple-A Louisville, per his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That indicates he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment earlier this week.

German, 25, has bounced around the league quite a bit. Originally a fourth-round selection of the Yankees in 2018, he was flipped to the Red Sox in the trade that also sent Adam Ottavino to Boston. He pitched very well in the minors last year, posting a 2.72 ERA in 49 2/3 combined innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He struck out 32.5% of batters while walking 9.6%. Those strong numbers got him up to the majors, though he allowed eight earned runs in his four innings down the stretch.

The righty was squeezed off Boston’s roster in the winter, getting designated for assignment in January. He was then traded to the White Sox, though that club put him on waivers in May, with the Reds putting in a claim. Each of those two clubs kept him in the minors and he struggled with both of their respective Triple-A squads. He has a 7.78 ERA in 19 2/3 frames this year between the two. His 28.4% strikeout rate is still strong but his 14.7% walk rate is extremely high.

His strikeout stuff clearly garnered plenty of interest around the league in recent months but his control issues have seemingly tempered the excitement enough to finally get him though waivers. Since he has less than three years of service time and this is his first career outright, he won’t have the ability to elect free agency. He’ll stick with Louisville and provide the club with some non-roster depth while trying to earn his way back to the show.

Padres Designate David Dahl For Assignment

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The Padres announced today that left-hander Adrian Morejon has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A El Paso. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, outfielder David Dahl was designate for assignment.

Dahl, 29, signed a minor league deal with the club and cracked the Opening Day roster. Unfortunately, he landed on the injured list just a week into the season with a quad strain, having made nine plate appearances in four games. He went on a rehab assignment and was optioned to El Paso once healthy. In 76 plate appearances for the Chihuahuas, he hit .265/.342/.382 for a wRC+ of 76, or 24% below league average.

It’s a continuation of a rough stretch for Dahl, who was once a fixture of the Rockies’ roster. He debuted in 2016 and hit .315/.359/.500 for a wRC+ of 113. He spent all of 2017 on the injured list but returned to post a combined .291/.342/.528 line for a 111 wRC+ in the two seasons after that. Unfortunately, he had a dismal 2020 when he hit just .183/.222/.247. He was non-tendered after that season and has bounced around since then, joining the Rangers, Brewers, Nationals and now the Padres in recent years, struggling to get on track for any extended period of time.

The Padres will now have a week to trade Dahl or pass him through waivers. If he were to clear waivers, he would be eligible to reject an outright assignment and return to free agency by virtue of having more than three years of major league service time.

Dodgers Select Nick Robertson

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The Dodgers have selected the contract of right-hander Nick Robertson from Triple-A Oklahoma City and optioned fellow righty Tayler Scott to Triple-A in a corresponding move, per a team announcement. It’ll be the big league debut for Robertson, a 24-year-old bullpen prospect, whenever he first takes the mound. The Dodgers already have an open 40-man spot, so they don’t need an additional move beyond optioning Scott.

Robertson, the Dodgers’ seventh-round pick in the 2019 draft, ranked 46th among Dodger prospects on the list of FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen back in January, where he was tabbed as a likely middle reliever despite going unselected in the Rule 5 Draft. He’s had an outstanding start to his season in OKC, pitching 25 1/3 innings with a 2.13 ERA that’s backed by an exceptional 37.4% strikeout rate and strong 7.1% walk rate. Robertson has kept the ball on the ground at a 48.1% clip and found success against both righties and lefties, the latter likely in large part due to heavy usage of an above-average changeup.

While he had a rough go in a couple stints of Double-A ball, Robertson has breezed through Triple-A pitching, both in a small sample of 11 1/3 innings last year and in this season’s 25 1/3 frames. He looks the part of a big league-ready bullpen piece, and the Dodgers will give him that opportunity as they look to stabilize what’s been a top-heavy unit. Dodgers relievers rank 26th in baseball with a 4.64 ERA, and the majority of their success has come from Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Ferguson. Robertson will get the chance to help smooth things out, although given the Dodgers’ habitual cycling of arms through the final few spots of their relief corps, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Robertson optioned a few times even if he performs well.

Nationals Designate Andres Machado For Assignment

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June 6: The Nationals have now made these moves official.

June 5, 1:28pm: The Nationals are recalling righty Jordan Weems from Triple-A in a corresponding move to the Machado DFA, per Talk Nats (Twitter link). Weems is already on the 40-man roster, so the Nats’ 40-man will simply drop to a count of 39 players for the time being. It’ll be Weems’ second stint of the season with the Nats. He tossed 2 1/3 scoreless frames earlier in the year and has a 3.75 ERA with a 24.7% strikeout rate and 13.4% walk rate in 24 Triple-A innings.

9:29am: The Nationals designated right-hander Andres Machado for assignment Sunday, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post, although the team has not yet announced the move or a replacement for Machado in the bullpen.

Machado, 30, was an oft-used member of the Washington bullpen in 2021-22, appearing in 91 games and pitching to a 3.41 ERA in 95 innings. Those solid bottom-line results came despite pedestrian strikeout and walk rates (18.8% and 9.9%, respectively) and came with a well below-average .261 average on balls in play, contributing to some far less favorable grades from fielding independent metrics (4.56 FIP, 4.45 SIERA).

They also likely aided in the Nationals’ successful effort to pass Machado through waivers unclaimed back in January, when he was designated for assignment after the team signed outfielder Corey Dickerson to a one-year contract. Machado remained with the organization and was selected back to the big league roster at the end of April.

It’s been a tough go for the right-hander since his return. Machado has appeared in 14 games and been clobbered for 16 runs on 25 hits and six walks in 17 innings. He’s punched out just 15.4% of his opponents against a 6.4% walk rate, and opposing hitters have already connected for six home runs — more than half the number he allowed (11) in total from 2021-22.

Machado is throwing harder than ever before, averaging 96.8 mph on his fastball this season, but the uptick in velocity hasn’t done him any favors. Machado has seen a slider that ranked as his best pitch in 2021 hit increasingly hard across the past two seasons, which has prompted him to instead favor his changeup as his primary secondary offering. The changeup has been a good pitch for him this year, but his four-seamer, sinker and now-seldom-used slider have all been hit hard.

The Nats will have a week to trade Machado or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. He’s out of minor league options, so any team to acquire him would need to carry him on the big league roster. Because he was also outrighted back in January, Machado would have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency even if he once again goes unclaimed on waivers.

Reds Promote Elly De La Cruz

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The Reds have called up one of the top prospects in baseball, announcing Tuesday that they’ve recalled infielder Elly De La Cruz from Triple-A Louisville. In a corresponding move, third baseman Nick Senzel is headed to the injured list with a right knee issue.

The promotion of the 21-year-old De La Cruz is the latest step in a Cincinnati youth movement that has seen the likes of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Alexis Diaz, Graham Ashcraft, Matt McLain and Andrew Abbott make their MLB debuts over the past 14 months. De La Cruz has arguably the highest ceiling of the entire group, and his first call to the Major will continue the efforts to usher in a new era of baseball at Great American Ball Park.

Cruz offers one of the most tantalizing blends of power and speed in the sport, evidenced by this year’s 12 home runs and 11 steals in 186 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s batting .297/.398/.633 with a 14% walk rate against a 26.9% strikeout rate in Louisville and has gained increasing notoriety for his Statcast-breaking exit velocities, sprint speed and arm strength at shortstop. Statcast has pegged his sprint speed as high as 31 ft/sec at times (which would rank first in the Majors), and he drew headlines for blistering three balls with exit velocities north of 116 mph in a single game earlier this season.

The 6’5″, 200-pound De La Cruz has been primarily a shortstop in his minor league career, but Cincinnati GM Nick Krall tells Jim Bowden of The Athletic that he’ll likely play both shortstop and third base in the big leagues (Twitter link). Despite his sizable frame, De La Cruz draws strong reviews for his defensive upside at shortstop. Cincinnati currently has McLain thriving at that position, however, so the switch-hitting De La Cruz could see more frequent action at third base, where Baseball America touts him as a potential plus-plus (i.e. 70-grade) defender.

Currently, De La Cruz ranks as the game’s No. 3 prospect at Baseball America, No. 4 at MLB.com and No. 5 at FanGraphs. De La Cruz occupied the top spot on Kiley McDaniel’s midseason update to his top-50 prospects over at ESPN, joining an elite tier of 60-FV prospects alongside the likes of Eury Perez, Marcelo Mayer, Jackson Holliday, Jackson Chourio and James Wood. “De La Cruz has continued to improve his polish at the plate while also continuing to show eye-popping 70- and 80-grade tools all over the field,” McDaniel wrote as part of that ranking.

The predominant concern with the switch-hitting De La Cruz is his penchant for swinging and missing. This year’s 26.9% strikeout rate is actually his lowest full-season mark to date; he’s fanned in over 30% of his plate appearances in each of his stops at Class-A, High-A and Double-A dating back to 2021. R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports points out that De La Cruz’s contact rate against while facing left-handed pitchers this season has been just 58%, underscoring the potential for some struggles in adjusting to big league opponents.

From a service time perspective, De La Cruz is being promoted late enough in the year that he won’t have any chance at organically accruing a full year of Major League service time. That technically puts him on track for free agency following the 2029 season, although for a prospect of this caliber, it’s certainly worth noting that with a top-two finish in National League Rookie of the Year voting, De La Cruz would still be awarded a full year of MLB service time thanks to provisions stipulated in the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement. Should De La Cruz be in the Majors for good but not accrue that full year based on ROY voting, he’d accumulate 118 days of Major League service time in 2023, placing him on the cusp of Super Two status following the 2025 season.

De La Cruz’s early performance will have particular ramifications for Senzel once he’s deemed eligible to return. While a rough initial showing from De La Cruz could make it a rather straightforward call, in the event that the talented 21-year-old holds his own or seizes a spot in the same manner McLain has, Senzel’s role will become murky. The Reds moved him from center field back to third base this year and have thus far received a .258/.332/.380 batting line in 184 plate appearances. It’s not standout production but is at least solid, particularly with Senzel drawing respectable defensive grades in his return to the hot corner.

Cincinnati could opt to deploy Senzel in super-utility fashion, getting him looks at all three outfield spots in addition to third base, second base and perhaps designated hitter. But if De La Cruz hits the ground running — and arguably, even if he doesn’t — the time to get an extended look at him and McLain on the left side of the infield, opposite second baseman Jonathan India (whom the Reds have no inclination to trade), is nigh. The Reds are hopeful that said trio, along with versatile Spencer Steer and minor league slugger Christian Encarnacion-Strand, can comprise their infield of the future.

That group would leave very little in the way of regular playing time for Senzel, the former No. 2 overall draft pick and top prospect whose career has been repeatedly slowed by injuries. Senzel, who’ll turn 28 later this month, has two years of club control beyond the current season, which (speculatively speaking) could make him an intriguing trade candidate to other teams seeking MLB-ready position players. The Reds’ outfield doesn’t have this same looming influx of young talent, so it’s certainly possible that Senzel could just return to the grass on a full-time basis if De La Cruz earns a long-term look in the infield, but Senzel’s role with the club is murkier now than at any point in his still-young career.

Any such decisions are unlikely to be made in the immediate future, though, and the focus for Reds fans is surely on getting their first look at the ballyhooed De La Cruz. The great hope among a Reds fanbase that has felt jilted in the wake of yet another teardown/rebuild and repeated, poorly received public comments from team CEO Phil Castellini, is that between this wave of young infielders and starting pitchers, a return to relevance in the NL Central could happen by next year at the latest — if not as soon as this summer.

Braves Acquire Ben Heller, Designate Nick Solak

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The Braves have acquired right-hander Ben Heller from the Rays in exchange for international bonus pool space and optioned him to Triple-A Gwinnett, per a team announcement. Outfielder Nick Solak was designated for assignment in a corresponding roster move.

Heller, 31, was just designated for assignment by the Rays last week. Signed to a minor league deal in the winter, he had his contract selected in late May but was optioned back to the minors before getting into a game. In 18 games at the Triple-A level for the year, he’s logged 27 1/3 innings with a 3.95 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 49.4% ground ball rate.

He has a bit of major league experience, getting into 31 games with the Yankees from 2016 to 2020 with a 2.59 ERA in that time. Unfortunately, he then spent much of 2021 and 2022 injured before landing with the Rays this year. Tampa frequently cycles pitchers on and off their roster throughout the season but it seems that Heller drew enough interest from clubs around the league that Tampa will get a little bit of extra money to spend on international amateurs.

For Atlanta, they’ve dealt with some challenges to their pitching staff, especially with starters Max Fried and Kyle Wright on the injured list and facing significant absences. They also have relievers Dylan Lee and Michael Tonkin on the IL, alongside Tyler Matzek who underwent Tommy John surgery last year. They will add Heller to their Triple-A club and have a bit of extra depth on hand for when they need a fresh arm. Heller is in his final option year and will be out of options next year. He has over three years of service time and will be eligible for arbitration this winter.

In addition to giving up a bit of bonus pool money, the club is also risking losing Solak. The 28-year-old once seemed like a potential building block for the Rangers when he debuted in 2019 and hit .293/.393/.491 in his first 33 games. He had always hit well in the minors and there was little reason to doubt he would continue to do so. Unfortunately, he slashed just .246/.317/.354 from 2020 to 2022. He was also pushed off second base both due to his subpar work there and the club signing Marcus Semien. He’s since spent more time in left field, which put more pressure on his bat to provide value.

In November, the club finally decided to cut bait and flipped Solak to the Reds for cash. He lasted on the Reds’ roster through the winter but was designated for assignment at the end of Spring Training. He then went to the Mariners in another cash deal but got the DFA treatment again just 10 days later. A couple of waiver claims then took him to the White Sox and Braves in the middle of April. Solak hit .272/.364/.444 for a 106 wRC+ in 173 plate appearances for Gwinnett. He struck out in just 15.6% of his plate appearances while walking at a 9.8% rate.

Now Solak has been given the DFA treatment yet again and might soon find himself in a sixth organization in less than a year. Despite the struggles at the major league level, he continues to hit in the minors. He’s in his final option year so some club could put in a claim and stash him in the minors. He’s been limited to left field this year but perhaps some club would give him another chance at the keystone. If he were to clear waivers, he would stick with the Braves since he has less than three years of service time and does not have a previous outright.

Upcoming Club Option Decisions: AL Central

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Last week, MLBTR took an early look at offseason option decisions facing teams in the National League. We’re continuing our division by division series moving through the Junior Circuit. Next up, the AL Central, where only three of five teams have players with contracts that contain 2024 options.

Previous posts: NL East, NL Central, NL West, AL East

Chicago White Sox

Lynn signed a $38MM extension midway through the 2021 season. He was en route to a third-place Cy Young finish at the time but has seen his results go backwards over the past two years. He still managed a solid 3.99 ERA through 121 2/3 innings last season, but this year has been far tougher. The 36-year-old has been tagged for a personal-worst 6.55 ERA in his first 12 starts.

The righty is striking out a quarter of opponents against a manageable 8.6% walk rate. His results on batted balls have been disastrous, though. He’s surrendering a .335 batting average on balls in play and has already given up 15 home runs, tied for third-most in the majors. There’s probably some amount of misfortune there, but Lynn’s a fly-ball pitcher who is giving up a lot of hard contact while pitching in a homer-friendly home park. It’s been a rough couple months and nowhere near the level the Sox would need to consider an option with a net $17MM decision.

Hendriks’ free agent deal contained a unique fourth year in which the option price and the buyout were valued the same. That was mostly an accounting measure designed to front-load the Sox’s luxury tax hit to afford more CBT breathing room in 2024. The only material difference at this point is that buying Hendriks out would allow the Sox to pay him in installments over a 10-year period as opposed to a $15MM salary to be disbursed in during the ’24 season.

There’s practically no question the White Sox are going to exercise this. Hendriks came back from a non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma diagnosis to return to pitching at the major league level within a matter of months. He’s one of the best relievers in the game when at his peak.

Anderson’s option call is almost as obvious as the Hendriks decision. The 29-year-old is typically one of the game’s best-hitting shortstops, an annual threat to bat over .300 with plus baserunning and typically solid defense. This hasn’t been a standard Anderson season. He’s off to a modest .273/.313/.320 start and is without a home run in 42 games. He missed a few weeks with a left knee sprain, and defensive metrics have soured on his glovework.

Rough couple months aside, a $13MM price point is still strong value for a player of Anderson’s caliber. He hit .318/.347/.473 between 2019-22 and earned a pair of All-Star nods. Next year’s free agent shortstop class is also incredibly thin, meaning there aren’t likely to be many alternatives available. Even if 2019-22 proves to be Anderson’s peak, a one-year, net $13MM decision is still an easy call for the team.

The White Sox signed Clevinger to a $12MM free agent deal over the winter. They were hoping to buy low on a return to form for the righty as he further distanced himself from 2020 Tommy John surgery. It hasn’t really materialized, as Clevinger’s performance in Chicago isn’t far off last year’s work in San Diego.

Through 10 starts, the 32-year-old has a 4.13 ERA in 52 1/3 innings. He’s posted slightly below-average strikeout and grounder rates while walking 10% of opposing hitters. This year’s 9.1% swinging-strike rate is a career low. He’s posting competent fifth starter results, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely he’ll recapture the upper mid-rotation upside of his Cleveland days.

It’s an $8MM decision on the option after accounting for the buyout. That’s a reasonable price point for a back-of-the-rotation arm. The likes of Zach Davies, Johnny Cueto and Kyle Gibson all landed between $5MM and $10MM last offseason, while Jordan Lyles secured a two-year, $17MM pact. Clevinger looks likely to land in that area. Mutual options are almost never exercised by both sides, so odds are Clevinger is headed back to free agency. His next contract just might land around there regardless.

  • Joe Kelly: $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Kelly has had a confounding two seasons in Chicago. Signed to a two-year, $17MM deal coming out of the lockout, he’s posted rough run prevention marks despite excellent peripherals. Kelly carries a 5.43 ERA through 54 2/3 innings since the start of 2022. That’s belied by elite strikeout (32.1%) and ground-ball (62.7%) numbers. Huge walk totals at least partially explained his 2022 struggles, but Kelly has a 4.08 ERA this season despite only walking two of the 70 batters he’s faced.

The right-hander has been an enigmatic player throughout his career. Kelly has always had wipeout stuff and flashed the ability to be an impact high-leverage arm at times. Yet he’s often paired that high-octane arsenal with control that comes and goes. It’s unlikely Kelly sustains anything close to his current 2.9% walk rate over a full season. This is probably headed towards a buyout.

Detroit Tigers

This technically qualifies as an option decision on Cabrera. There’s no suspense about the result, of course. The future Hall of Famer will be bought out as the Tigers finally wrap up a $248MM extension that proved very ill-advised. Cabrera has already declared 2023 to be his likely final season. He’ll leave the sport as one of the greatest hitters ever, but it remains to be seen whether the Tigers will carry him on the roster all year. He’s hitting .202/.283/.245 in 26 games.

Minnesota Twins

Polanco would vest next year’s option with 550 plate appearances if he passed a postseason physical. He’s very unlikely to meet the playing time threshold. Polanco has only 118 trips to the dish more than a third of the way through the season. He’s had a pair of injured list stints already, missing time due both to right knee and left hamstring concerns. He’d need to average more than 4.2 plate appearances per game the rest of the way.

That’ll probably be a moot point, as the Twins seem likely to welcome him back regardless. It’s a $9.5MM decision for a middle infielder who’s one of the team’s better hitters. The switch-hitting Polanco posted a .235/.346/.405 line last season and is at a .268/.305/.482 pace in 27 games this year. Dating back to 2018, Polanco is a .272/.337/.456 hitter in nearly 2500 plate appearances. The Twins would have another club option (this time valued at $12MM) for 2025 if they keep him around, only adding to the appeal.

Kepler’s early-career extension looked like it’d be a coup when he connected on 36 home runs in 2019. The former top prospect seemed to be taking his long-awaited step forward. He hasn’t built on it, though, as he posted roughly league average numbers each season from 2020-22.

Even average production would be a welcome departure from Kepler’s showing thus far in ’23. The left-handed-hitting outfielder is off to a brutal .192/.264/.376 start in 140 plate appearances. The shift ban hasn’t resulted in any kind of improvement in his perennially low ball in play numbers. He’s sporting a career-worst .196 BABIP. His strikeouts are up to 20.7% and he’s walking at a career-worst 7.1% clip.

Kepler is an elite defensive right fielder and has shown better offensive form in prior seasons. A $9MM call isn’t out of the question, but he’ll obviously need to markedly improve upon his current pace. Minnesota has a number of controllable corner outfielders who’ve reached the MLB level (Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner among them). Perhaps it’s time for a change of scenery for Kepler, who seems to have stalled out in the Twin Cities.

Braves Outright Lucas Luetge

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10:45am: As expected, Luetge has indeed opted to remain with the Braves and accept his outright assignment, writes Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

9:35am: The Braves announced Tuesday that left-handed reliever Lucas Luetge went unclaimed on outright waivers and has been assigned to Triple-A Gwinnett. Atlanta also announced this morning that right-hander Roddery Munoz will be recalled from Triple-A, setting the stage for the 23-year-old reliever’s big league debut. They had an open 40-man spot after optioning righty Michael Soroka yesterday.

The 36-year-old Luetge, who’d been designated for assignment over the weekend, has the right to reject that assignment in favor of free agency by virtue of both Major League service time (four-plus years) and a prior outright assignment in his career. However, because he doesn’t yet have five years of MLB service, electing free agency would mean forfeiting the remainder of this year’s $1.55MM salary. As such, it seems quite likely he’ll accept and remain in the Braves organization without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster.

Luetge joined the Braves over the winter in a trade that sent minor league infielder Caleb Durbin and minor league reliever Indigo Diaz back to the Yankees. Luetge had been somewhat of a surprise DFA by the Yankees, but the decision to move on from the lefty in exchange for a pair of mid-level minor leaguers — both of whom have played well thus far in 2023 — looks defensible given Luetge’s struggles in 2023.

Thus far, Luetge has appeared in nine games with the Braves but been tagged for 11 runs on 15 hits and six walks through just 9 2/3 frames. After striking out a quarter of his opponents against a 5.8% walk rate in two years with the Yankees, the southpaw has fanned a diminished 22.2% of his opponents and issued walks to 13.3% of them. It’s a small sample, but Luetge has also seen his swinging-strike rate plummet from 12.7% to just 8.1%, while the velocity on his cutter has dipped to a career-low 87.1 mph.

Luetge also spent more than a month on the injured list with inflammation in his left biceps, so it’s possible there’s a physical reason for this year’s struggles. Whatever the root of the issue, he’ll now quite likely look to get back on track with the Braves’ Gwinnett affiliate and earn another look in the big leagues.

As for Munoz, he’s moved to the bullpen in 2023 after spending the majority of his prior professional career as a starter. The Braves signed the 6’2″ righty out of the Dominican Republic back in 2018, and he’s pitched his way into becoming one of the more promising arms in a relatively thin Braves system. Baseball America and MLB.com ranked him 22nd and 21st among Atlanta farmhands, respectively, both touting a potentially plus slider and mid-90s heater. Munoz’s changeup is regarded as a below-average pitch, however, and his command has clear room for refinement.

So far in 2023, Munoz has split the season between Double-A and Triple-A, working to a combined 4.94 ERA in 27 1/3 frames. He’s walked nearly as many of his 126 opponents (20) as he’s struck out (24). He’s avoided home runs and kept the ball on the ground at a strong 46% clip, but it’s been a tough season on the whole. That said, he’s allowed just one run and fanned 14 over his past 11 innings, albeit with seven walks and a pair of hit batters in that time continuing to shine a light on his sub-par command.

MLBTR Poll: How Should The Jays Proceed With Alek Manoah?

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The Blue Jays dropped an 11-4 contest to the Astros last night, snapping a four-game win streak. The game was never competitive, as Toronto found itself in a six-run hole before coming up to hit. Alek Manoah put the club behind the eight ball, allowing eight of nine opponents to reach base and being charged for six runs.

It was the worst performance in a season that has been a nightmare for the 25-year-old. Manoah comes out of the appearance with a 6.36 ERA over 58 innings. ERA estimators like SIERA (5.91), xERA (6.42) and FIP (6.52) are equally grim. Manoah has earned a quality start in only two of his 13 outings, although both were scoreless seven-inning gems. The start-to-start consistency hasn’t been there; Manoah has allowed more than a run per inning in five of his appearances and gotten past the fifth inning on only three occasions.

Those results are staggering. Manoah looked like a burgeoning ace two months ago. He posted a 3.22 ERA as a rookie in 2021 and took things to a new level last year. The right-hander twirled 196 2/3 frames of 2.24 ERA ball last season, earning his first All-Star nod and a third-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting. This year, he has the ninth-worst ERA and second-highest FIP among the 96 pitchers with 50+ innings.

Manoah and skipper John Schneider didn’t have definitive answers last night. Speaking postgame, Schneider said “everything is on the table” as the club tries to get Manoah back to form (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). As things stand, Manoah would be lined up to take the ball on Saturday against the Twins.

There’s nothing in the former first round pick’s performance this year that’d inspire confidence. Manoah’s 17% strikeout percentage is well below average, as is his 8.5% swinging strike rate. He’s not throwing many pitches in the strike zone and he’s not having success in getting opponents to reach for stuff off the plate. That’s a combination that’ll lead to a lot of free passes. Manoah has issued an MLB-worst 42 walks.

The results haven’t been any better when Manoah has gone after opponents. He’s not missing many bats within the strike zone and is giving up a lot of hard contact. He’s already surrendered 11 home runs after giving up just 16 longballs all of last year. His fastball velocity is down a tick and he’s not getting as much lateral movement on his slider. The breaking ball has been particularly problematic, as opponents are hitting .328 and slugging .603 in 58 at-bats ending in a slider.

Most pitchers would’ve already lost their rotation spot with those kinds of numbers. Manoah, of course, isn’t the average pitcher. The Jays have understandably deferred to his pre-2023 track record in giving him a couple months to sort things out. Without any indication a breakthrough is imminent, though, the pressure is building on the coaching staff and front office. Toronto is a win-now club in the sport’s toughest division. They’re in fourth place despite a 33-28 record. The margin for error is too narrow in the AL East to wait much longer.

Where can the Jays go from here? They don’t have an off day until next Monday, so skipping Manoah’s next start only works if they want to put extra stress on a bullpen that had to cover 8 2/3 innings yesterday. There’s no indication he’s pitching through any discomfort that’d warrant a 15-day injured list stint. Barring injury, the likeliest courses of action are to keep Manoah on turn in the rotation or option him back to Triple-A Buffalo for a reset.

Further complicating matters is the Jays’ lack of rotation depth. Toronto entered the year with a top-heavy starting staff of Manoah, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi. That quintet has taken all 61 of the team’s starts. Gausman has been great and Berríos has gotten on track after a tough 2022 campaign. Bassitt has decent results despite middling strikeout and walk numbers.

Gausman, Bassitt and Berríos are locks for three rotation spots. Kikuchi probably isn’t in immediate danger of losing his job with a 4.40 ERA but he pitched his way out of a starting spot last season and is tied for the MLB lead with 17 homers allowed this year. Kikuchi is already a fringe starter for a hopeful contender. Manoah’s a second question mark and the Jays don’t have many alternatives below them.

Mitch White and Hyun Jin Ryu have been out all season. White’s on a rehab stint in Triple-A, at least, though he’s no sure thing after posting a 5.45 ERA last year. Ryu probably won’t be back until after the All-Star Break as he rehabs from last summer’s Tommy John procedure.

Former Marlin and Pirate Zach Thompson is on the 40-man roster but has an ERA pushing 7.00 in Buffalo. Prospect Yosver Zulueta is working in short stints in Triple-A. 20-year-old Ricky Tiedemann is the organization’s top minor league pitcher but he has just 23 2/3 career frames above A-ball. Non-roster veterans Casey Lawrence and Drew Hutchison have mediocre Triple-A numbers. Bowden Francis has pitched well in four Triple-A starts this year but had a 6.59 ERA in 98 1/3 innings there last season.

Meaningful rotation help is rarely available on waivers. It’ll probably be a deadline priority but it’s uncommon for teams to make notable acquisitions in early June. Unless the Jays surprisingly jump the market, they’re not working with great options. There’s a glaring lack of depth even as Toronto has been fortunate enough to avoid any injuries to their top five starters this year. If one of Gausman, Bassitt or Berríos were to miss time at any point, the rotation could be a disaster.

What should Schneider, GM Ross Atkins and the rest of organizational leadership do? Keep running Manoah out there and hope he figures things out, or turn to a depth option while giving last year’s Cy Young finalist some time out of the spotlight?

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