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Archives for June 2023

The Opener: McCutchen, Giants, MLBTR Chat

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As the 2023 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. McCutchen approaches milestone:

Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen currently sits at 1,997 hits for his career, just three away from becoming the 290th player in major league history to record at least 2,000 hits. Other active players who reached similar territory include Joey Votto, Nelson Cruz, and Miguel Cabrera. McCutchen has recorded a trio of three-hit games so far this season, most recently on May 31 against the Giants. He’s gone hitless over his last two games, though he did draw three walks and connect for a game-winning sacrifice fly in last night’s win over the A’s.

It’s been a resurgent season for the 36-year-old veteran, who has slashed an excellent .271/.373/.442 in his return to Pittsburgh, good for a 124 wRC+. That mark would be his highest in a full season since 2015, when he was an All Star for the fifth time, won a fourth consecutive Silver Slugger award, and finished fifth in NL MVP voting. McCutchen will have another chance to reach the milestone this evening against the A’s and right-hander James Kaprielian.

2. Giants getting healthy:

The Giants open a series against the Rockies in Denver today, with right-hander John Brebbia expected to take the mound as an opener against Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet. San Francisco figures to welcome reinforcements for its starting lineup at some point during the three-game set, as Susan Sussler of the San Francisco Chronicle indicates that the club could welcome both lefty slugger Joc Pederson and infielder Thairo Estrada back from the injured list during the coming series.

The return of the duo would be a huge boost for the San Francisco lineup, as each is among the club’s top hitters alongside the likes of J.D. Davis, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Michael Conforto. Pederson has posted the stronger offensive numbers to this point, with a .235/.351/.494 slash (128 wRC+) in 97 plate appearances prior to going on the injured list last month, working exclusively as a designated hitter. Estrada has been similarly productive, slashing .301/.345/.466 (123 wRC+) in 206 plate appearances while contributing with the glove at second base, shortstop, and left field throughout the 2023 campaign.

3. MLBTR Chat Today:

With the calendar now flipped to June, the paths forward for many of MLB’s teams remain murky, even as some organizations set themselves apart from the pack.. If the events of the season so far have spurred any questions in your mind about your favorite team or the league as a whole, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Red Sox Designate Raimel Tapia For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced Monday that they’ve reinstated infielder Christian Arroyo from the injured list and, in a corresponding move, designated outfielder Raimel Tapia for assignment.

The veteran Tapia, 29, was non-tendered by the Blue Jays last winter and signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox, who selected his contract prior to Opening Day. He’s appeared in 39 games thus far and tallied 97 plate appearances in Boston, batting .264/.333/.368 with a homer, four doubles, a triple and six stolen bases (in seven attempts). He’s drawn nine walks and fanned 19 times along the way, giving him slightly better-than-average rates in both departments.

Tapia has played all three outfield spots in Boston but has primarily been a left fielder in his big league career — most of which has been spent with the Rockies. He’s drawn solid, if unspectacular grades in left field and in center field, though defensive metrics aren’t particularly keen on his right field prowess. He’s been average or a tick worse across the board in the outfield this season per each of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average.

With some outfield versatility, above-average contact and above-average speed, Tapia has been a solid enough fourth outfielder in Boston, even with a glaring lack of power. That’s generally par for the course for the speedster, who has never topped nine home runs in a big league season and hasn’t been deemed a strong enough defender by any of the Rockies, Jays or Red Sox to run out in center field on a regular or even semi-regular basis.

Tapia can certainly provide value, but as a primarily left-field option without much power and with notable platoon splits (.105/.190/.105 versus lefties in 2023; .275/.305/.361 career), he’s perhaps a bit more limited than one might expect with a cursory glance at his batting line and 89th percentile sprint speed (per Statcast). It’s still at least somewhat surprising to see the Red Sox move on in this fashion, although with an all-left-handed-hitting outfield mix of Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Alex Verdugo, Tapia’s lefty bat might well have been deemed a suboptimal fit. The right-handed-hitting Rob Refsnyder offers a more natural complement in that regard.

The minor league deal Tapia signed over the winter contained a $2MM base salary, so any team that claims him or acquires him would need to be comfortable picking up the remainder of that prorated bill. Boston could always include some cash to help facilitate a trade, and a trade is surely the team’s preferred option, as Tapia has more than five years of MLB service and can thus reject an outright assignment while retaining the entirety of the salary still owed to him. The Red Sox will have a week to trade Tapia, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him.

Mariners Sign Kyle Hart To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners have signed left-hander Kyle Hart to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He’s been assigned to Triple-A Tacoma.

Hart, 30, signed a minor league deal with the Phillies this winter and began his season with Triple-A Lehigh Valley but was released after a one-inning appearance in which he didn’t allow a run. He’s been on the open market for about six weeks but has now landed a new gig.

Prior to this year, Hart spent his entire career in the Red Sox organization. That club selected him in the 19th round of the 2016 draft and utilized him primarily as a starter in the lower levels of their minor league system. In 2019, he tossed 156 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.52 ERA and earned himself a spot on the 40-man roster. He made it to the majors in 2020 and made four appearances, including three starts, but posted a 15.55 ERA in those.

He was outrighted off the roster after that year and continued pitching on the farm for the Sox for the next two years, both as a starter and a reliever. He tossed 106 2/3 Triple-A innings in 2021 with a 4.91 ERA, then posted a 5.25 ERA in 2022 over 82 1/3 innings between Triple-A and Double-A.

It’s unclear if the Mariners are interested in Hart as a starter or reliever. They’ve had some injuries to their rotation, with Robbie Ray and Easton McGee out for the year due to Tommy John surgery while Marco Gonzales just landed on the IL due to a forearm strain. That has forced rookies Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo up to the big leagues and thinned the depth a bit. There’s also a couple of relievers on the IL but they’re both right-handed, as lefties Gabe Speier and Tayler Saucedo currently make up the southpaw contingent in the big leagues. They also have non-roster lefties like Eric Stout and Rob Kaminsky in Triple-A.

Hart could perhaps join that group or give the club some extra rotation depth. If he finds his way back onto the 40-man roster, he still has a couple of option seasons and less than a year of service time, meaning he could potentially serve as a depth piece for quite some time if he were to hang onto that roster spot.

Rockies’ Low-Cost Relief Addition Paying Off

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While most of last offseason’s major free agent activity was wrapped up by the new year, the left-handed relief market lagged. Matt Strahm and Taylor Rogers came off the board in December but veterans Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore and Zack Britton all lingered on the market. (Britton remains unsigned.)

Brad Hand also fell into the latter group. The three-time All-Star was a free agent until well into Spring Training. His camp had presumably pointed to last year’s 2.80 ERA over 45 innings for the Phillies and Hand’s broader track record since moving to relief. Teams were no doubt wary of dwindling swing-and-miss numbers that translated in a modest 19.2% strikeout rate and an 11.6% walk percentage that was his worst since going to the bullpen.

After four months of free agency, Hand signed a $3MM deal with the Rockies. Including a $1MM escalator for making the Opening Day roster, he’s being paid $2.5MM in salary. He’s also guaranteed at least a $500K buyout on a $7MM team/vesting option covering the 2024 season.

Colorado had a quiet winter, adding a handful of veteran free agents on one-year deals and bringing in unproven younger players via trade. Of the free agent pickups (Jurickson Profar, Pierce Johnson, José Ureña, Hand and Mike Moustakas), the southpaw has easily been the most effective.

Calling this a “rebound” campaign is probably doing Hand’s 2022 efforts a disservice. He worked around his middling strikeout and walk marks to keep runs off the board for Philadelphia, after all. Yet his first couple months in Colorado more closely resemble his best form.

The 33-year-old has punched out 30 of the 92 batters he’s faced over 23 appearances. His 32.6% strikeout rate is easily his best mark since 2020 and nine points higher than this year’s league average. Hand’s per-pitch metrics aren’t quite so excellent — his 11.3% swinging strike rate is around par for a reliever — but a notable step up from the past two seasons, when he was missing bats on less than 8% of his offerings.

Hand’s fastball velocity hasn’t changed. He has added some power back to his go-to slider. Hand is averaging 81.3 MPH on his breaking ball, a tick or two higher than he has over the past three years. The results have followed. Opponents are swinging through the slider far more than they have since 2020 and it’s been a particularly effective offering in two-strike counts.

Improving his swing-and-miss has allowed Hand to navigate his tough home environment. He carries a solid 3.86 ERA even as hitters are running a .400 average on balls in play against him. He hasn’t allowed a single home run. That obviously won’t continue over a full season but Hand’s ball-in-play results should come down to earth to help offset that.

That’s particularly true if he’s not calling Coors Field, which has the one of the game’s most spacious outfields, his home park all year. Hand’s uptick in whiffs figures to pique the interest of bullpen-needy contenders. As the trade deadline gets closer, general manager Bill Schmidt and his front office are likely to get questions on his availability.

There’s no guarantee the Rockies will actively shop Hand this summer, of course. At 26-35, Colorado is headed for another non-playoff season. Yet they’ve consistently resisted sweeping changes at previous trade deadlines. They’ve allowed some impending free agents (Trevor Story, Jon Gray) to hit the market and signed others to extensions (Daniel Bard, C.J. Cron) in response to what they felt weren’t compelling trade proposals.

Colorado might not have to do either in Hand’s case. Unless he finishes 25 games this season, the Rox would be able to keep him around via the club option. Hand has completed only six contests so far, putting him shy of a pace that’d convert the option into a mutual provision.

It’d also become a mutual option if Hand is traded. For the Rockies, whether to bring Hand back in 2024 is likely to be a club decision. For any other team, he’d have the right to retest free agency and would be viewed as more of a true rental.

Perhaps that discrepancy will diminish the trade offers to the point that Colorado prefers to play things out. So long as he keeps pitching at this level, though, he’ll be on the radar for other clubs. The Rockies haven’t had a ton go right to this point but the acquisition of Hand has developed as the front office would’ve drawn up.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates Notes: Cruz, Davis, Rodriguez, Hedges

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The Pirates hammered out the largest contract in franchise history this spring, ending the long-running Bryan Reynolds saga with a $100MM extension. Shortly after finalizing that deal, owner Bob Nutting said the Bucs were hoping to get long-term contracts done with other players.

Nutting didn’t tip his hand as to which players the Bucs were interested in signing, though it’s easy to speculate about potential candidates. Shortstop Oneil Cruz is one option, as the 6’7″ infielder has hit 19 home runs in his first 98 big league games.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that the Pirates and Cruz’s representatives at Vayner Sports had discussed a longer-term deal during Spring Training. According to Mackey, talks never got particularly close and seem to have been tabled during the season.

That’s hardly a huge concern. Cruz entered the season with less than one year of service time. He won’t reach free agency until after the 2028 campaign and seems unlikely to qualify for arbitration before 2026. There’s plenty of time to rekindle talks down the line. Even if nothing ever comes together, the Pirates can keep him around for the bulk of the decade.

The more immediate concern is Cruz’s health. The 24-year-old broke his left ankle nine games into the season. He underwent surgery that came with a four-month recovery timeline, putting his projected return sometime in August. Manager Derek Shelton said over the weekend that Cruz’s rehab remains on schedule, while the young slugger reiterated he expects to return this season (link via Justice delos Santos of MLB.com).

Without Cruz, the Pirates have used a rotating cast at shortstop. Rodolfo Castro and Tucupita Marcano have split the bulk of the reps while Ji Hwan Bae and Chris Owings (who was recently designated for assignment) have also factored in. They’ve done a solid job offensively. Bucs’ shortstops entered play Monday with a .254/.336/.398 line that placed them in the top half of the league in all three slash stats. It’s been a struggle on the other side of the ball, however. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have rated Pirates’ shortstops among the two worst defensive groups this year.

Cruz isn’t without defensive questions himself. He’s faced some predictable skepticism about whether he’ll be able to stick at shortstop given his height and extremely long levers. His massive power-speed upside made him a top-tier prospect in spite of those questions, though, and the Bucs are surely hoping he’ll contribute to a potential playoff push down the stretch.

Pittsburgh has plenty more young talent approaching the major league level. Their rebuild has led to one of the game’s deeper organizational pipelines, which will be further strengthened when they pick first overall this summer. It’s the second time in three years they’re at the top of the draft.

In 2021, the Bucs tabbed Louisville catcher Henry Davis with the top selection. Two years later, he’s reached the highest minor league level. The Pirates promoted Davis to Triple-A Indianapolis yesterday, a deserved bump after he mashed at a .284/.433/.547 clip in Double-A Altoona.

Davis joins 23-year-old Endy Rodríguez — an arguably even more talented prospect — as catchers with Indianapolis. General manager Ben Cherington addressed the enviable “problem” of having two young players of that caliber sharing reps in Triple-A (link via Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic). Cherington indicated it’d be a roughly even split of playing time behind  the dish, with both players also seeing time at other positions.

Davis has gotten some work in right field this year. Rodríguez has played left field and second base in the past but been limited to catcher or first base in 2023. Cherington noted that neither is being considered for a full-time position switch, as any non-catching work is primarily a means of getting both in the lineup concurrently.

While many Pirates’ fans are surely pining for a look at one of those young players at the major league level, Cherington pushed back against the possibility of an imminent call-up. He expressed confidence in the duo of Austin Hedges and Jason Delay as a defensive pairing.

Hedges, signed to a $5MM free agent contract, is generally regarded as one of the sport’s best defensive backstops. He annually draws elite marks for his pitch framing and ability to block balls in the dirt. Hedges has been solid at controlling the running game and is routinely praised for his management of a pitching staff. That acumen is enough for teams to overlook a lack of offensive contributions, as he’s among the sport’s least effective hitters on an annual basis. He owns a .179/.240/.221 line through his first 110 plate appearances as a Pirate.

Delay has a much better .310/.359/.437 slash on the season, though he’s unlikely to sustain anything approaching his current .404 batting average on balls in play. He’s gotten solid marks from Statcast for his pitch framing over the past two seasons, however. So long as the Pirates are using Hedges as the primary catcher, it’s sensible to keep the 28-year-old Delay as the #2 option while letting Davis and Rodríguez play regularly in Triple-A.

Red Sox Expected To Promote Chris Murphy

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The Red Sox are planning to recall Chris Murphy during their upcoming series with the Guardians, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (Twitter link). It’s not yet clear whether he’ll make a start or break in out of the bullpen but the Sox lost Chris Sale to the injured list last week.

In either case, Murphy is in position to make his major league debut. It’s a great birthday present for the left-hander, who turns 25 today. Murphy is already on the 40-man roster after the Sox added him to keep him out of last winter’s Rule 5 draft. They’ll only need to make an active roster move whenever he’s formally promoted.

A University of San Diego product, Murphy has spent the past few seasons in the middle ranks of the Boston farm system. Baseball America has slotted him between 12th and 15th among Sox prospects four years running. He checked in 13th at BA and 11th on Keith Law’s ranking at The Athletic last winter. Both outlets credit him with a solid four-pitch arsenal headlined by his changeup. BA and Law each suggest he has a back-of-the-rotation caliber repertoire but might be better suited for long relief thanks to inconsistent control.

Even a swing role would be strong value for a player who signed for $200K as a sixth round pick in 2019. Murphy has had a spotty showing through ten appearances with Triple-A Worcester this year. He’s allowed a 7.71 ERA in 39 2/3 innings. A .385 average on balls in play surely hasn’t helped matters, though he’s also walked nearly 13% of batters faced. He is coming off a scoreless three-inning outing last week in which he allowed only one baserunner with a trio of strikeouts.

Murphy is an upper minors pitcher who’s already on the 40-man roster and capable of covering multiple innings. He’s in his first of three option years and can bounce between Boston and Worcester without being placed on waivers. Even if his initial MLB stint is a spot start or relief appearance, he’s on the organizational radar as a depth option.

Big Hype Prospects: Cowser, De La Cruz, Rushing, Vientos, Keith

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Last week’s lead Big Hype Prospect, Andrew Abbott, is already on his way to the Majors. Let’s see if we can pull the trick two weeks in a row.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Colton Cowser, 23, OF, BAL (AAA)
186 PA, 8 HR 5 SB, .347/.484/.590

When he hit the injured list with a quad injury in mid-May, Cowser was playing his way into Major League consideration. Cowser returned to action over the weekend, going a combined 4-for-5 with two walks, a double, and a homer. He’s produced multiple hits in 14 of 39 games this season. Cedric Mullins is currently sidelined with a groin injury. Although replacement center fielder Aaron Hicks has played well in his absence, underlying metrics suggest Hicks is toast. The club also has a partial opening at designated hitter which can be filled on a more permanent basis by Anthony Santander. Cowser has the athletic ability to stick in center field, but he could be a truly plus defender in the outfield corners. There’s concern he’ll struggle against left-handed pitching early in his career. At worst case, he looks like a high-probability strong-side platoon hitter. That’s why he’s creeping towards Top 10 prospect status on many lists.

Elly De La Cruz, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (AAA)
186 PA, 12 HR, 11 SB, .297/.398/.633

My recent fantasy chat included at least a half dozen questions about when De La Cruz will debut. I don’t have any special insight into the Reds thought process. The decision is complex, made even more so due to new service time and draft pick compensation rules. Role playing as the Reds, there is a certain attractiveness to following the Corbin Carroll model. As you’ll recall, Carroll debuted in late-August and performed decently in his debut. He’s now on pace to handily win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. The timing of his initial promotion ensured he would be club-controlled through 2028 (a contract extension has since further extended the Diamondbacks control). A later debut for De La Cruz would ensure he’s under control through at least 2029.

Were it up to me, he would be in the Majors tomorrow. Of all prospects in the minors, he has the least to prove. To my eyes, he’s the most physically impressive prospect since Fernando Tatis Jr. Among his most impressive traits are a 93.4-mph average exit velocity with a 118.8-mph max EV. This season, Matt Olson leads the league with a hardest-hit ball of 118.6-mph.

Dalton Rushing, 22, C, LAD (A+)
188 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .261/.431/.507

Rushing has followed up a wild 2022 debut with an impressive, discipline-forward performance. Defensive reviews of the left-handed hitting catching prospect skew vaguely negative. He’s a high-effort receiver who will need to work hard to polish his game. Since his bat is so advanced, a move to a corner position might be required so he can progress through the minors at a more rapid pace. The Dodgers are blessed with a number of highly regarded catchers. They can certainly afford for Rushing to play elsewhere. It might be advisable to get Rushing’s bat in Double-A before he becomes too accustomed to a 19.7 percent walk rate. Discipline is an excellent trait to possess, but it needs to be coupled with selective aggression within the strike zone.

For clarity the speculation about Rushing moving off catcher is my own based on the Dodgers inventory. I’ve not seen a scout suggest it’s necessary.

Mark Vientos, 23, DH, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 166 PA, 13 HR, .333/.416/.688

Vientos possesses (and gets to) incredibly consistent power in-game. Although he’s only hitting .188/.206/.281 in 34 plate appearances, his exit velocities (96.1-mph average, 112.8-mph max) tell another story. Among hitters with over 30 plate appearances, only Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have tallied higher average exit velocities. While it’s in part a small sample fluke, Vientos did average 94.5-mph in Triple-A. The flaws in his game could limit his ceiling. In particular, he tends to make low-angle, pulled contact. He’s expected to be strikeout prone. He could find himself cast as a second-division starter or limited to facing certain pitcher types.

Colt Keith, 21, 3B, DET (AA)
217 PA, 10 HR, 1 SB, .321/.396/.563

Keith has built upon a breakout 2022 in High-A by doing much the same in Double-A. He’s even trimmed three points from his swinging strike rate. There’s risk he’ll continue to move down the defensive spectrum. He was being trained as a second baseman last season, but he’s made only three starts at the keystone in 2023. His bat is his carrying characteristic, fueled by plus discipline and a willingness to ambush mistakes in the zone. Wherever he winds up defensively, his bat looks like it will play in the Majors.

Three More

Bryan Woo, SEA (23): The Mariners opted to jump Woo straight from Double-A for his debut last Saturday. His performance in Double-A was masterful (44 innings, 2.05 ERA). His first start, not so much (2 IP, 7 H, 6 R). Scouts have long loved the life and shape of his fastball. His slider and changeup remain works in progress.

Chase Hampton, NYY (21): One of the top-performing pitching prospects in the minors, Hampton is beginning to draw attention from scouts. His mid-90s fastball reportedly tunnels well with a plus slider and curve. As with many young power pitchers, his changeup lags behind his other offerings. Hampton has an 18.8 percent swinging strike rate in High-A.

Luken Baker, STL (26): A former second-round draft pick, Baker experienced a breakthrough in Triple-A this season, bashing 18 home runs in 244 plate appearances. He produced a 92.8-mph average and 113.5-mph max EV. Baker made his debut as the designated hitter on Sunday.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Rangers Transfer Jacob deGrom To 60-Day Injured List

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The Rangers announced a series of roster moves today, reinstating right-hander Spencer Howard from the 60-day injured list. He will take the active roster spot of right-hander Jonathan Hernández, who has been optioned to Triple-A Round Rock. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, righty Jacob deGrom was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

At this point, it’s unclear if anything has meaningfully changed in deGrom’s timeline. He has already been on the injured list since April 29 due to inflammation in his throwing elbow and had yet to begin a rehab assignment. Today’s transfer officially rules him out until 60 days from that initial IL placement, meaning he could be reinstated as soon as June 28. Even if he were cleared to start ramping up his pitch count tomorrow, he likely would have needed a few weeks to get back to a full starter’s workload anyway. It’s possible that this is merely a procedural move and that his health status hasn’t changed. If there has been some kind of setback, that information has yet to be publicly revealed. He will have a follow-up MRI this week, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

Health has been the major question mark surrounding deGrom in recent years. Arguably the best pitcher on the planet when healthy, it’s been quite some time since he remained on the mound for an extended period of time. He logged over 200 innings in each season from 2017 to 2019, but then the pandemic-shortened 2020 season kept him to just 68 frames. In 2021, he went on the injured list with forearm tightness in July of 2021 and never returned. He then missed the start of 2022 due to a stress reaction in his shoulder blade, returning in August after missing over a year of action.

He was still excellent when on the mound, posting a tiny 2.05 ERA over that 2020 to 2022 stretch, striking out 42.4% of opponents against a 4.5% walk rate. The pandemic was obviously unrelated, but it nonetheless combined with the injuries to limit him to 224 1/3 innings over those three years. The Rangers made a bet on him by signing him to a five-year, $185MM deal this winter. He made six starts for his new club with a 2.67 ERA but has been on the shelf since then with an uncertain outlook.

Howard, 26, has been on the injured list all year after suffering a lat strain during the spring. He recently began a rehab assignment and pitched two scoreless relief outings. Howard had the #27 slot on Baseball America’s top 100 list in both 2020 and 2021 while with the Phillies. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to put it all together in the big leagues just yet. Coming over to the Rangers in a 2021 deadline deal, he has 111 1/2 major league innings between the two clubs with a 7.09 ERA.

The righty had a chance to establish himself as a future rotation building block last year, as he was one of several younger hurlers given a shot in the Texas rotation. Unfortunately, he spent much of the year either in the minors or on the injured list, only tossing 37 2/3 innings in the majors with a 7.41 ERA. The club then totally revamped their rotation this winter by re-signing Martín Pérez and acquiring deGrom, Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi and Jake Odorizzi to slot alongside incumbent Jon Gray.

Odorizzi is done for the year due to a shoulder procedure and deGrom is obviously not an option for a while, but it still seems as though Howard has been pushed out of the rotation mix, at least for now. His recent rehab assignment could have been as long as 30 days and allowed him to get stretched out but he’s instead been reinstated after just a couple of short outings. That doesn’t mean the book has totally closed on him being a starter but he is in his final option year. With the Rangers’ bullpen having posted a collective 4.47 ERA on the season, perhaps they would like to take some time to see if he can be of use to them in a relief capacity.

One of the struggling members of the relief corps has been Hernández. He posted a solid 2.90 ERA in 2020 but required Tommy John surgery in April of 2021, wiping out that entire season. He returned last year and was able to make 29 appearances with a 2.97 ERA. Unfortunately, his results have taken a big dip here in 2023, as he currently has a 6.65 ERA through 25 outings.

The remaining months of the season will be important for the righty as he has just one option year left, meaning he’ll be out of options next year as long as he spends at least 20 days in the minors this season. His trajectory for free agency could also potentially be impacted as he came into this campaign with three years and 41 days of service time. Spending roughly a couple of months in the minors would prevent him from getting to the four-year mark this season and delay his free agency by a year. He could also wind up as a non-tender candidate if he’s out of options and his results don’t improve.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History: Honorable Mentions

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The calendar has flipped to June, and more than one-third of the season is in the rearview mirror. While there’s still plenty of time for the standings to change in dramatic fashion — just ask the 2022 Phillies or 2019 Nationals — the “early” portion of the season is a bit behind us. As the weather heats up and playoff pictures begin to take a more definitive shape, the baseball world inherently turns its focus to a few things: the looming All-Star Game, the upcoming amateur draft and, of course, the annual trade deadline.

June trades of note are admittedly rare — particularly over the past ten years or so — but we’re fast approaching the portion of the season where trade needs, potential trade candidates and many other deadline-adjacent minutiae begin to crystallize. It’s common for fans of rebuilding and/or underperforming clubs to begin to wonder just what sort of returns their favorite team might be able to eke out for veteran players with dwindling club control.

Some of the most common questions we’re asked in chats at MLBTR these days center around what a team might be able to get for a certain player — rentals in particular. Names like Lucas Giolito, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Jeimer Candelario were just a few readers asked me about this past week. To be clear, it’s not a given that all or even any of those specific names will change hands in two months’ time (or sooner), but it’s obviously a hot topic that’s on people’s minds.

As such, it only seemed natural to take a look back through recent history and look at some high-profile trades of rental players and see which panned out the best for the team selling off the veteran player in question. Over the next couple weeks, we’ll roll out a look at the ten “best” returns for rental players in recent trade deadline history.

A few caveats of note! At times, it can take three, four, five years or even longer for a team to begin reaping the benefits from such a deal. An immediate return isn’t always apparent, particularly when you’re only selling two months of a player or players. As such, we’re not considering trades completed at last year’s deadline for our top ten, even though they could well prove excellent as soon as 2024 or 2025. It’s simply too soon to evaluate those swaps. Also, these rankings are subjective; they’re not based on a hard-and-fast WAR criteria or anything of the sort. If you think we should’ve ranked No. 7 higher and No. 4 lower, let us know. It’s all part of the fun.

While I said we’re omitting last year’s deadline from our top ten, that doesn’t mean we’ll completely ignore the results of the 2022 deadline. To kick off the series, here’s a quick look at three honorable mentions from 2017-21 as well as a handful of 2022 trades that will be worth keeping an eye on in the years to come. Present-day impact of these 2022 trades has either been minimal or nonexistent, but each brought the “selling” team some nearly MLB-ready help that could be impactful as soon as this season. These honorable mentions and 2022 swaps aren’t ranked — they’re just sorted alphabetically by the last name of the player who was traded.

Let’s begin!

Honorable Mentions

Orioles acquire RHPs Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll and LHP Josh Rogers from the Yankees in exchange for LHP Zack Britton (7/24/18)

Two-thirds of this return for Baltimore wound up making little to no impact, but the acquisition of Tate, a former No. 4 overall draft pick, wound up paying dividends. Though Tate isn’t the rotation piece the Rangers hoped for when drafting him or the Yankees envisioned when acquiring him for Carlos Beltran, he’s emerged as a quality setup man at Camden Yards. The O’s gave Tate just ten starts after the trade before moving him to the bullpen, and while his rookie effort in 2019 left plenty to be desired, he’s since pitched quite well.

Dating back to 2020, Tate has a 3.65 ERA in 158 innings of relief, adding 25 holds and eight saves along the way. Tate’s 19.1% strikeout rate is below-average, but his 6.8% walk rate is better than average and his 57.9% grounder rate is outstanding. In 2022, he pitched to a pristine 3.05 ERA through 73 2/3 frames, tallying five of those saves and 16 of those holds. A forearm strain has kept Tate out of action this year, however.

Tate isn’t peak Britton and likely never will be, but trading two months of an elite reliever and winding up with six years of club control over an above-average reliever isn’t a bad outcome for Baltimore. As for the Yankees, they got the tail end of Britton’s prime. He notched a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings down the stretch and re-signed on a three-year deal with a fourth year option (that had to be exercised after the contract’s second season to prevent a Britton opt-out). Britton posted a sub-2.00 ERA in both 2019 and 2020, but he pitched just 19 innings over his final two years in New York due to injuries.

Rays acquire LHP Jalen Beeks from the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Nathan Eovaldi (7/25/18)

Few could’ve predicted what an impactful trade this would end up being at the time it was made. At the time of the swap, Eovaldi was in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and had pitched 57 innings of 4.26 ERA ball for Tampa Bay. He’d long intrigued teams with his power arsenal but was inconsistent and carried a career ERA that more or less matched that season total.

Eovaldi took off in Boston, however, tossing 54 frames of 3.33 ERA ball as the Sox marched to the postseason, where he cemented his status in Red Sox lore. Eovaldi was a star that October, tossing 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio. Those are impressive numbers on their own, but they only tell part of the tale. Eovaldi won his first two starts of the playoffs before moving to the bullpen and picking up a pair of holds. But it was Game 3 of the World Series, where Eovaldi gutted out six innings of relief in an 18-inning marathon and finished out the game, that many will remember. The Dodgers wound up winning when Eovaldi’s 97th (!) pitch out of the bullpen was deposited in the seats by Max Muncy, but he saved the Boston bullpen with six innings of one-run ball that night. The Sox went on to win the World Series in five games.

As for the Rays, they came away with a lefty who’d come up through Boston’s system as a starter but would be used in a jack-of-all-trades role in St. Petersburg. Beeks has served as a long reliever, a setup man and an opener in parts of five seasons with Tampa Bay, totaling 258 innings of 4.12 ERA ball along the way. He’s been the type of versatile arm whose value can’t be neatly encapsulated in what looks like an otherwise modest WAR total. Beeks has handled just about any role the Rays could ask, and he’s generally been effective in doing so. He’s not a star, but he’s been an important member of their pitching staff for a half decade now and is still under team control through the 2024 season.

Tigers acquire RHP Reese Olson from the Brewers in exchange for LHP Daniel Norris (7/30/21)

The 23-year-old Olson made his big league debut on Friday when he stepped into the Detroit rotation to take the spot of the injured Eduardo Rodriguez. As far as debuts go, it was nearly as good as a young pitcher could ask for. Olson carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning before being tagged for a pair of runs and departing five frames of two-run ball in the books.

Olson isn’t regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects and isn’t even universally considered to be among the Tigers’ top 10 prospects, but he’s missed bats consistently in the upper minors and is regarded as a potential long-term rotation piece if he can improve upon the command of his fastball. Scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and MLB.com praise Olson’s secondary pitches, particularly his changeup, which he’s begun using effectively even in right-on-right situations.

Detroit has seen a lot of turnover in the baseball operations department since this trade, but former GM Al Avila, AGM David Chadd and others will be in line for some praise if the Tigers get a viable big leaguer in exchange for two months of the veteran Norris, who was sitting on a 5.38 ERA in 36 2/3 innings at the time of the deal. Norris had been tough on lefties, and the Brewers surely felt they could coax a higher level of performance out of him with some tweaks. That didn’t happen, however, as Norris was rocked for a 6.64 ERA in Milwaukee, walking 15 of the 63 batters he faced (23.8%) and serving up five homers in 20 1/3 frames (2.2 HR/9).

2022 Deadline Swaps to Watch

Pirates acquire RHP Johan Oviedo, INF Malcom Nunez from the Cardinals in exchange for LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Chris Stratton (8/2/22)

Yes, technically this isn’t a pure rental. Stratton had an additional year of club control, and that surely factored into the return. But he was also sitting on a 5.09 ERA at the time of the deal, and this was largely a trade centered around getting Quintana to land some much-needed rotation help in St. Louis.

The Cardinals got just what they wanted out of this deal — and then some. Quintana stepped into the rotation and not only solidified the staff but pitched to a brilliant 2.01 ERA in 62 2/3 frames down the stretch. The lefty was so excellent that St. Louis wound up tabbing him as the Game 1 starter in last year’s National League Division Series. Quintana had signed a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason and was acquired as a back-end starter but pitched like an ace. The script doesn’t get much better for the acquiring team.

That said, this trade also has the makings of a winner for Pittsburgh. The 25-year-old Oviedo has been inconsistent but shown flashes of brilliance with the Bucs. He’s throwing fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches — particularly more curveballs, which has been an extremely effective offering for him through 11 starts. Oviedo’s 4.50 ERA in 58 innings looks pretty pedestrian, but he’s upped his ground-ball rate and improved his velocity even in a rotation role. He’s allowed one or zero runs in six of his 11 starts this year. The Pirates can control Oviedo for four more years beyond the current season, and if he’s a legitimate starter or even a multi-inning relief piece, that’ll be a fine return for their modest Quintana flier. Nunez, meanwhile, hit .286/.381/.476 in Double-A following the trade and is at .255/.338/.369 in 160 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

Cubs acquire RHP Ben Brown from the Phillies in exchange for RHP David Robertson (8/2/22)

Robertson was one of the most in-demand relievers — or trade candidates in general — at last year’s deadline, and the rebuilding/retooling Cubs needed to get their return right. So far, it looks like they’ve done just that. Brown is out to a sensational start in the upper minors this year, pitching to a combined 2.63 ERA with a 35.5% strikeout rate against a less-appealing 11.7% walk rate. Baseball America ranked him sixth among Cubs prospects heading into the season, and The Athletic’s Keith Law called him a “heck of a get for two months of a 37-year-old reliever.” FanGraphs currently has him ranked 87th on their top-100 prospect list, and MLB.com moved him into its top-100 just this morning.

Despite Brown’s wide-reaching acclaim, the Phillies might not even regret making the swap. Robertson struggled with his command following the trade but still posted 22 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball and saved six games for Philadelphia down the stretch in a tight Wild Card race that saw them edge out the Brewers by exactly one win. The Phillies needed every single victory, and if they’d held onto Brown and targeted a different reliever(s), who knows whether they’d have reached the playoffs? Were it not for Robertson — who pitched 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs — the Phils may never have experienced J.T. Realmuto’s NLDS inside-the-parker, Rhys Hoskins’ four-homer NLCS, or Bryce Harper’s iconic NLCS-clinching bomb.

Angels acquire OFs Mickey Moniak, Jadiel Sanchez from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Noah Syndergaard (8/2/22)

This trade might not have gone as well as the Phillies hoped. Syndergaard was decent down the stretch, pitching to a 4.12 ERA in 10 appearances, nine of them starts. He started just twice in the postseason and made one relief appearance. Syndergaard pitched like a fourth or fifth starter but saw his already diminished velocity and strikeout rate step even further back following the trade. Again, the Phils needed every last win to get to the playoffs, though, so it’s hard to say they’d definitively have done anything different. They won six of Syndergaard’s nine starts and also picked up the victory in the lone game they used him out of the bullpen, when he tossed two scoreless frames.

At least thus far, Angels fans can’t complain about the return. Moniak isn’t going to sustain a .429 batting average on balls in play, but he’s hitting .327/.340/.694 in 50 plate appearances. The BABIP and a 34% strikeout rate scream for regression, but the former 1-1 pick has already hit as many homers through 50 trips to the plate with the Halos (four) as he did in 167 with the Phillies. He’s played good defense, run well and given some hope that he can carve out a role moving forward.

Red Sox acquire INF Enmanuel Valdez, OF Wilyer Abreu from the Astros in exchange for C Christian Vazquez (8/1/22)

Trading Vazquez was part of a disjointed Red Sox trade deadline that saw Boston trade away their longtime catcher and lefty reliever Jake Diekman while also acquiring Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. It wasn’t clear that their 2023 roster was improved, and the decision to hold onto other trade targets while adding Pham’s salary left them just over the luxury tax line (thereby reducing their compensation for qualifying offers extended to Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi).

Digression aside, the swap might prove beneficial to the Sox in the long run. Valdez has already made his big league debut, and although his bat faded after a hot start, he’s still sporting a passable .244/.292/.422 batting line (91 wRC+) in his first 97 big league plate appearances. He’s picked up four homers, four doubles and three steals (in four tries) while subbing in at second base in the wake of a slew of middle-infield injuries. Valdez posted absolutely massive numbers in 205 Double-A plate appearances last year (.357/.463/.649) before moving up to Triple-A and hitting .265/.327/.488.

Abreu, meanwhile, was added to the 40-man roster over the winter and is hitting .264/.379/.479 in 40 Triple-A games so far. He’s regarded as a potential plus outfield defender, and his success in Triple-A and status on the 40-man roster mean the Red Sox could possibly have two MLB contributors within a year or so of trading Vazquez.

It’s hard to say anything moves the 2022 Astros made “didn’t work out,” as the team won the World Series in the end. But Vazquez took a backseat to Martin Maldonado both in the regular season and the playoffs, hitting just .250/.278/.308 in 108 regular-season plate appearances following the swap (plus .235/.316/.235 in just 19 playoff plate appearances).

Brewers Reinstate Luis Urías, Transfer Darin Ruf To 60-Day IL

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3:55pm: In addition to the laceration, Ruf has a non-displaced fracture of his patella, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. The expected recovery timeline is six to eight weeks, leading to today’s transfer.

3:30pm: The Brewers announced a series of roster moves today, reinstating infielder Luis Urías from the 60-day injured list. Fellow infielder Mike Brosseau was optioned to open a spot on the active roster. To open a spot on the 40-man, first baseman Darin Ruf was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Urías, 26, played in Milwaukee’s Opening Day game this year but hurt his left hamstring in that contest. He was diagnosed with a strain and it was estimated that he would miss six to eight weeks. He was eventually transferred to the 60-day injured list and now returns after a slightly longer absence than that initial estimated time frame.

In the past couple of seasons, he has established himself as a solid and versatile member of the club. Over 2021 and 2022, he hit 39 home runs and slashed a combined .244/.340/.426 for a wRC+ of 111. He was also able to bounce around the infield, slotting in at the three positions to the left of first base as needed.

His recent absence led to greater playing time for certain utility players, one of which was Brosseau. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to take advantage of the opportunity, hitting .205/.256/.397 so far this year for a wRC+ of 75. Other players like Owen Miller and Andruw Monasterio have fared better this year, leading to Brosseau getting squeezed out today. Assuming Urías is able to get back to his previous form, the swap should be a positive one for the club.

The move could potentially impact Brosseau’s path to free agency, as he came into the season with three years and 31 days of service time. If he were to spend more than a month in the minors, it could prevent him from reaching the four-year mark this season. But he also might find himself at risk of being non-tendered at season’s end anyway since he’s making $1.4MM this year and would be in line for an arbitration raise for next season.

As for Ruf, he suffered a laceration on his knee last week when he was chasing after a foul ball and collided with the rolled-up tarp. He was placed on the 10-day IL on the weekend but it seems the issue is serious enough that he’ll need to miss a couple of months. Ruf had just joined the club a couple of weeks ago and effectively replaced the now-released Luke Voit as the right-handed platoon partner for the lefty-swinging Rowdy Tellez. The club recently called up first baseman Jon Singleton, though he also swings from the left side.

Players like Miller, Brian Anderson and Abraham Toro have a small amount of first base experience and bat from the right side, with Toro being a switch-hitter. Perhaps one of them could attempt to take that short-side platoon role. Tellez could also play on a more everyday basis as his career splits aren’t that drastic. He’s hit .237/.308/.486 against righties for a 110 wRC+ and .242/.313/.396 against lefties for a 93 wRC+.

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