Archives for July 2023

Shane Bieber Drawing Trade Interest

By Darragh McDonald | July 7, 2023 at 3:06pm CDT

The trade deadline is still over three weeks away but Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber is already drawing interest, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

It’s hardly surprising to see Bieber garnering attention around the league given his situation. He’s established himself as a quality big leaguer, having tossed over 800 innings to this point with a 3.24 ERA. He won the American League Cy Young Award in 2020 when he posted a 1.63 ERA in 12 starts.

Beyond his performance, there are other factors that would lead clubs to pick up the phone and call Cleveland. The Guardians have long had a reputation of trading away their players as they get closer to free agency, with their salary increasing and their club control waning. Recent years have seen them ship out Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger under such circumstances. Bieber is making just over $10MM this year and can qualify for one more arbitration raise before he’s slated for free agency after 2024.

The Guards are below .500 with a record of 43-44, but no club is running away with the American League Central division. The Guardians are just a game and a half back of the Twins, who sit atop the group with a 45-43 record. The Guardians are still very much in contention there, though that doesn’t necessarily mean Bieber would be off the table. There are few clear sellers this year and it’s been speculated that there may end up being more trades between contenders, with each trading from an area of surplus to address an area of need.

Despite Zach Plesac being outrighted off the roster and injuries putting each of Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill and Daniel Espino out of action, the Guardians still have a strong rotation. In addition to Bieber, they have Aaron Civale, Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee. Rookie Logan Allen was optioned to the minors when Quantrill came off the injured list but could potentially be recalled after the break now that Quantrill has landed on the IL again. All the aforementioned factors led to Bieber being placed in the #8 spot on MLBTR’s recent list of top deadline trade candidates.

That’s no guarantee Bieber will be moved, as the Guardians could opt to keep him for the stretch run and even for 2024, though they will surely listen to any other club that calls up and expresses interest. It will be fascinating to see exactly how strong that interest is, as Bieber seems to have taken a step back from his dominant performance in previous seasons.

The righty struck out 30.2% of hitters in 2019 and that figured jumped to 41.1% in the shorter sample of the 2020 season. It naturally dropped to 33.1% the year after but has continued sliding, getting to 25% last year and just 19.3% here in 2023. He’s still avoiding walks, getting grounders and generally keeping runs off the board, as shown by his 3.66 ERA this year. However, his 4.13 FIP and 4.44 SIERA suggest he might be lucky to be there, with a .280 batting average on balls in play perhaps helping him out. His velocity is also down, with his fastball averaging 91.3 mph this year compared to the 93-94 range he was at a few years ago.

That puts the Guardians in an tricky spot. If they have designs on trading Bieber like they have done with other players in the past, his value won’t get any higher. They could always delay a trade until the offseason, but they would then be marketing Bieber for just one playoff push instead of the two they can offer now. There’s also the ever-present risk of an injury putting a dent in a pitcher’s value at any point.

But while pulling the trigger now may be the best time to do so in terms of cold-hearted asset management, it would hurt their chances of taking advantage of a weak division here in 2023. The White Sox are disappointing this year but could always reload and have better results next year. The Tigers are showing some signs of life and could be stronger next season as well. Perhaps the decision makers in Cleveland would prefer to try to take advantage of the door that is open in front of them right now.

There will be much to think about in the next few weeks, with the decision undoubtedly to be impacted by the results of the club, the performance of Bieber and the nature of the offers they receive. The trade deadline this year is on August 1.

Marlins Option Eury Pérez

By Darragh McDonald | July 7, 2023 at 2:55pm CDT

The Marlins are optioning right-hander Eury Pérez to the minor leagues, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It might seem like a strange decision at first blush since the rookie has an excellent 2.36 ERA through his first 11 starts, but it was reported earlier that the club was going to manage the youngster’s innings this year.

Pérez came into this season regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in the league, despite a fairly limited track record. He was signed as an amateur in 2019, but then the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in 2020. He made his professional debut in 2021, tossing 78 innings. Last year, he was on pace to eclipse that mark but suffered a lat strain in the summer and was limited to shorter stints upon his return, finishing the year with just 77 innings pitched.

He’s had excellent results everywhere he’s pitched but came into 2023 without having cracked 80 innings in a season. He continued his run of excellent at the start of this year, posting a 2.32 ERA over 31 Double-A innings. He got called up to the majors and has thrived with a 2.36 ERA in 53 1/3 innings, striking out 28.4% of opponents against a 7.9% walk rate. Between Double-A and the majors, he’s already at 84 1/3 innings this year, more than either of the previous two campaigns.

Mish provides some more context in a subsequent tweet, saying that the club had planned on making this move earlier in the year. However, injuries to Johnny Cueto, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers, as well as the continued excellence of Perez, pushed them to keep rolling with him for a while longer. Now the All-Star break is imminent and Cueto is nearing a return, putting them in a better position to continue without him. By all accounts, the club is hoping to slow Pérez down, using the less-competitive environment of the minors to manage his workload so that he still has some bullets left for the postseason race or appearing in the playoffs themselves. Mish adds that the timeline of this plan hasn’t yet been definitively worked out.

Subtracting Pérez from the rotation leaves them with Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Bryan Hoeing. Cueto will be rejoining the club after the All-Star break, per Mish, but his role has yet to be determined. He posted a 10.50 ERA over six rehab starts and perhaps the club is hesitant to install him back into a rotation job right away. Cabrera is also working his way back to health and will start a rehab assignment tomorrow, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.

As for Pérez and his service time, he was called up May 10 and wasn’t going to be able to get to a full year here in 2023. He could have been granted the entire year by finishing in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but that was always going to be a challenge as long as these workload limits were part of the conversation. He would have been in a decent position to qualify for arbitration after 2025 as a Super Two player, though his odds of maintaining that trajectory will be dropped, depending on how the rest of the season plays out.

Athletics Place Esteury Ruiz On IL With Shoulder Subluxation

By Darragh McDonald | July 7, 2023 at 2:15pm CDT

The Athletics announced a series of roster moves today, recalling right-hander Angel Felipe and selecting the contract of outfielder Cody Thomas. In corresponding moves, outfielder Esteury Ruiz was placed on the 10-day injured list with a right shoulder subluxation while right-hander Rico Garcia was designated for assignment.

Ruiz appeared to injure himself while diving back into first base in a game earlier this week. To this point, the A’s haven’t provided any kind of timeline on his expected absence, but the diagnosis is potentially significant. To use a recent example, Brewers outfielder Garrett Mitchell suffered a subluxation in April and required surgery that he likely won’t be able to come back from this year. That’s not to say that the same thing will happen to Ruiz, but it demonstrates the potential seriousness.

Acquired from the Brewers as part of the three-team Sean Murphy trade, Ruiz has had a season that more or less lines up with preseason expectations. One of the fastest players in the league, his baserunning is his standout trait, which has been on display this year. Offensively, he’s hit just one home run and walked at a paltry 3.8% clip, with his .257/.310/.329 batting line amounting to a wRC+ of 85. But he’s been on base enough to try stealing a base 51 times, succeeding in 43 of those, placing him two ahead of Ronald Acuña Jr. for the major league lead.

Despite his excellent speed, advanced defensive metrics are conflicted about his glovework. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -15 for the year, Ultimate Zone Rating at -7.6 but Outs Above Average is far kinder at +1. The A’s are the worst team in baseball right now with a record of 25-64, meaning this injury won’t impact their nonexistent competitive chances, but it’s surely unwelcome for a young player with excellent natural gifts to potentially be missing out on important development time.

Thomas, 28, was selected to Oakland’s 40-man roster going into 2022. He got that roster spot on the heels of a huge .289/.363/.665 showing at Triple-A in 2021. Unfortunately, he missed most of 2022 due to Achilles tendon surgery, only taking 32 big league plate appearances on the year and 39 more in Triple-A.

He was designated for assignment in the offseason and outrighted, sticking with the organization in a non-roster capacity. This year, he’s been mashing in Triple-A again, launching 17 home runs and producing a .308/.367/.576 batting line. That performance will get him back to the show for another crack at hitting against big league pitching. He’s capable of playing all three outfield spots but has spent more time in the corners. JJ Bleday played center yesterday and could perhaps get an extended audition there with Ruiz out.

Garcia, 29, signed a minor league deal with the A’s in the offseason and was selected to the big league roster in May. He has an 8.31 ERA in 8 2/3 major league innings this year but a much more palatable 3.20 ERA in 25 1/3 Triple-A innings. He’s struck out 29.2% of hitters in the minors this year but walked 18.6% of them. The A’s will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. He has a previous career outright and would therefore have the right to elect free agency in the event he clears waivers.

Felipe, 25, will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. He’s only been with the A’s a short time, having been claimed off waivers from the Padres about two weeks ago. He had a 6.20 ERA in Triple-A when the Padres designated him for assignment but has a much nicer 1.80 ERA since being claimed. He posted huge strikeout numbers in both organizations but his walk rate fell from 14.9% with El Paso to 5.9% with Las Vegas. Control has been an ongoing concern for him so it remains to be seen if that’s a small sample blip or if he’s made some kind of adjustment.

Rays Select Elvin Rodríguez, Designate José López

By Darragh McDonald | July 7, 2023 at 1:35pm CDT

The Rays have made some roster moves today, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. They have selected right-hander Elvin Rodríguez to their roster, with righty Ryan Thompson optioned in a corresponding move. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, left-hander José López has been designated for assignment.

The Rays recently lost Shane McClanahan to the injured list and have been scrambling to get to the All-Star break, deploying bullpen games in each of the past two days. They used six different pitchers on Wednesday and then eight yesterday. With the staff fairly taxed and three games against a potent Atlanta offense to get through before the break, they’ve brought in a fresh arm to help out.

Rodríguez, 25, spent the past few years in the Tigers’ system. He split 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, posting a 5.68 ERA but striking out 24.6% of hitters while walking 8.6%. The Tigers added him to their 40-man roster after that season and he was able to make his major league debut in 2022. Unfortunately, his first 29 2/3 major league innings resulted in a 10.62 ERA. He also had a 4.98 ERA in Triple-A last year over 99 1/3 innings.

The Tigers non-tendered him at season’s end and he landed with the Rays on a minor league deal. He’s tossed 47 1/3 innings in the minors this year over 11 starts with a 3.42 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate. The Rays have Tyler Glasnow, Taj Bradley and Zach Eflin lined up to start the next three games but will likely call on Rodríguez if they need multiple innings at any point.

López, 24, had spent his entire career with the Rays until the Padres selected him in the Rule 5 draft last November. The Friars were undoubtedly intrigued by his 2022 season wherein he tossed 59 1/3 innings between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A with a 2.43 ERA. He struck out 37.7% of hitters while walking 15.1%. That obvious lack of control continued into the spring, with López walking five batters in six innings before being offered back to the Rays in late March.

He was able to make his major league debut with Tampa this year, allowing one earned run in a two-inning appearance. Otherwise, he’s been in Triple-A, posting a 7.89 ERA there while walking 13.2% of opponents and striking out just 22.2%.

The Rays will now have one week to trade López or pass him through waivers. His command is clearly an ongoing concern but left-handed relief tends to always be in demand. He’s shown an ability to rack up strikeouts in the past and still has a full slate of options. Any club willing to give him a 40-man roster spot could keep him as an optionable depth piece for the foreseeable future and hope he reins in his stuff.

Cardinals Promote José Fermín, Place Tommy Edman On IL

By Darragh McDonald | July 7, 2023 at 1:00pm CDT

1:00pm: Fermín has been officially recalled with Edman placed on the 10-day IL in a corresponding move due to right wrist inflammation. It’s unclear how long Edman is expected to be out but next week’s All-Star break could mean he only misses a handful of games.

9:13am: Infielder José Fermín is expected to join the Cardinals in Chicago ahead of their series against the White Sox this weekend, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Fermín is already on the 40-man roster but will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

Now 24, Fermín was an international signing of the Guardians but came over to the Cardinals in November. The Guards had a roster crunch prior to the Rule 5 draft last year and made a few trades that month, sending Nolan Jones to the Rockies, Carlos Vargas to the Diamondbacks and Fermín to the Cards.

Fermín’s reputation as a prospect is generally one of a high-contact, low-power infielder. He’s only struck out in 10.7% of his minor league plate appearances, a rate less than half of the 22.7% major league average here in 2023. But he’s also only hit 24 home runs in his 1,758 trips to the plate. He’s generally considered a strong enough defender to play shortstop while also spending some time at second and third base.

Coming into this season, Fermin would have competed for a bench spot for the Cards but he suffered a strained quadriceps during Spring Training and was shut down, eliminating his chances of cracking the Opening Day roster. He didn’t get into a minor league game until early June and has only suited up for 17 contests so far this year, hitting .180/.296/.328 in that small sample.

The Cardinals are known to value versatility in their players and are likely attracted to his ability to provide quality defense at multiple infield positions, especially since the club has been dealing with a few injuries related to their infield depth of late. Tommy Edman has been dealing with wrist soreness lately and though an MRI showed no structural damage, per Goold, Edman didn’t start the past two games. Brendan Donovan also missed some time recently with arm soreness and has been serving as the designated hitter since then. Both of those players have been bumped to the outfield as Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman handle the middle infield most days, but their nagging injuries could be enough to compel the Cards to add another bench player with some infield capabilities. The corresponding move will perhaps shed some more light on the situation later today.

Sherman: Marlins Will Have Resources At Deadline

By Darragh McDonald | July 7, 2023 at 12:00pm CDT

Marlins owner Bruce Sherman spoke with Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald about the club’s season, expressing his delight with the overall results thus far and declaring that general manager Kim Ng will have financial resources to work with at the upcoming deadline.

“This has been one of the most exciting seasons in Marlins history, and I am thrilled with what we have accomplished thus far,” he said. “The job is not done. We want to be in the 2023 postseason. I am prepared to give Kim and her staff the resources she needs over the next month to help the club.”

It’s been a long time since the Marlins found themselves in this position. Though the club made the postseason in the shortened 2020 campaign, the last time they qualified in a full season was way back in 2003. The last time they finished with a winning record in a 162-game season was 2009. But here in 2023, the club is well above .500 at 51-38. They’re 8.5 games back of a dominant Atlanta club in the National League East, but Miami currently holds the top Wild Card spot in the NL. A skeptic might point to the club’s negative run differential and incredible 21-5 record in one-run games to suggest this run isn’t sustainable. But regardless of how they came to be, those wins are in the bank and the club is well-positioned to make deadline additions to help with the remainder of the schedule.

Part of the reason the club has struggled so much over the past two decades is a lack of financial resources, as the club has rarely been a significant spender, especially not in recent history. Per the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club has only twice in this century run a payroll to get out of the bottom 10. The most recent time was back in 2012, well before Sherman bought the club in late 2017.

Shortly after the Sherman group took over, the club’s most significant moves were of the cost-cutting variety. Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna were all traded between December of 2017 and January of 2018, with J.T. Realmuto dealt just over a year later. The club has essentially been in rebuilding mode since then, with last year’s 69-93 record their strongest in any recent full season.

That means that we don’t have much of a blueprint for how the Marlins will operate at this year’s deadline, with the club never having performed this well during Sherman’s tenure. The same goes for Ng, who only got her job after the 2020 season. This year’s deadline is also expected to be fairly unpredictable in the sense that few clubs are clear sellers and it’s expected by many that there will be more trades between contenders.

All those factors make it difficult to predict exactly how the Marlins will behave, but there would be reasons to expect aggressiveness. Since it has been so long since the club had any kind of meaningful success, it would be fair to expect an internal desire to strike while the iron is hot and take advantage of their current position. The fact that Sherman is apparently willing to help the club out with some financial wiggle room should only help them keep more of their trade targets on the table.

As for which parts of the roster they upgrade, there would be a few options. Just about every contender looks to grab an extra reliever or two around this time of year and the Marlins should be no exception. Their relief corps has a collective ERA of 4.12, placing them 20th out of the 30 clubs in the league. The rotation has been an area of surplus at times but suddenly has some question marks. Each of Trevor Rogers, Johnny Cueto and Edward Cabrera are currently on the injured list while 20-year-old Eury Pérez could run into some workload limits at the season progresses. Cabrera and Cueto could potentially return shortly, with their health and performance perhaps having an impact on whether or not the club feels the rotation needs reinforcing.

On the position player side, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently wrote about how an infield pursuit makes sense for the club, especially with third baseman Jean Segura hitting a paltry .202/.272/.252 this year. The outfield has been fairly strong overall but center field is a question mark right now. Jazz Chisholm Jr. recently landed on the injured list due to an oblique strain and his replacement, Jonathan Davis, is potentially done for the year due to knee surgery. Thankfully, Chisholm’s strain is apparently mild and he could potentially return shortly. Behind the plate, neither Nick Fortes nor Jacob Stallings are providing much offense but catching upgrades at the deadline can be tricky because an incoming backstop would have to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly.

However Ng and her staff decide to play it, it’s surely an exciting time for the Marlins and their fans. The on-field results are the best they’ve had in quite some and they’re going into the deadline as obvious buyers with the owner signaling that notable moves will be possible. The extent of those resources and how they are deployed won’t be known for a few weeks, but the Marlins are positioned to be key players between now and the August 1 trade deadline.

Marlins To Promote Sean Reynolds

By Darragh McDonald | July 7, 2023 at 11:05am CDT

The Marlins are calling up reliever Sean Reynolds, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The right-hander is already on the 40-man roster but will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

Reynolds, now 25, was drafted by the Marlins as a hitter back in 2016. He didn’t have much success at the plate in his first taste of professional ball and converted to pitching in 2021. He tossed 32 innings over 19 Single-A appearances that year with a 3.09 ERA. Last year, he split his time between High-A and Double-A, tossing 52 1/3 innings with a combined 4.13 ERA, 29.6% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate.

Since he was drafted so long ago, Reynolds was eligible for the Rule 5 draft last year. The Marlins decided to give him a roster spot in November in order to prevent him from being selected, showing faith in his recent conversion. This year, he’s been in Double-A and Triple-A, tossing 40 2/3 innings between those two levels with a 2.66 ERA. He’s struck out 27.8% of opponents while walking 11.2% of them.

Reynolds is currently considered the #28 prospect in the Marlins’ system by Baseball America and #23 at FanGraphs. Both outlets highlight his fastball, which averages around 96mph but can hit triple-digits. His curveball and changeup are considered works in progress, but that’s not terribly surprising for a guy who hasn’t been pitching for very long relative to others at these levels.

The reliever might still have a bit of rawness given his unusual trajectory, but he brings plenty of intrigue with his velocity and 6’8″ frame. The Fish will give him a chance to try to get outs at the big league level and see how it goes. The club currently holds the top Wild Card spot in the National League and will likely be looking for bullpen upgrades at the deadline like all contenders, but the performance of their in-house options could perhaps influence the aggressiveness of that pursuit.

Athletics Outright Chad Smith

By Darragh McDonald | July 7, 2023 at 10:10am CDT

The Athletics have sent right-hander Chad Smith outright to Triple-A Las Vegas, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That indicates he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment earlier in the week.

Smith, now 28, was acquired from the Rockies in an offseason trade. Between the two clubs, he’s thrown 30 innings in the big leagues with an ERA of 7.20. His 23.2% strikeout rate is strong but he’s paired that with a 15.2% walk rate. It’s been a fairly similar story in the minor leagues. Smith has thrown 88 Triple-A innings dating back to the start of 2021, with a 4.50 ERA, 27% strikeout rate and 13.1% walk rate.

The 29 other clubs had a chance to grab Smith off waivers but all took a pass, which means he will stay in the Athletics’ system as non-roster depth. He lacks the requisite service time or previous career outright to reject this assignment and elect free agency. If he can improve his command and get back to the big leagues, he still has a couple of option years, one of which will be burned here in 2023. He also has less than a year of major league service time. But if he doesn’t get his roster spot back by season’s end, he’ll qualify for minor league free agency.

The Opener: MLB Draft, Rodon, Manoah

By Nick Deeds | July 7, 2023 at 8:13am CDT

As the baseball world gears up for the beginning of All-Star festivities this weekend, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:

1. MLB Draft kicks off this weekend:

All-Star week festivities will begin with Day 1 of the 2023 MLB draft on Sunday. This year’s draft class is headlined by a pair of LSU standouts: right-hander Paul Skenes and outfielder Dylan Crews. The next tier of prospects is made up by a trio of outfielders, with the University of Florida’s Wyatt Langford standing alongside prep bats Max Clark and Walker Jenkins. The Pirates, Nationals, Tigers, Rangers, and Twins will make the first five picks of this year’s draft. Day 1 of the draft will consist of the first two rounds, with coverage beginning at 5pm CT on Sunday. For more information on how to watch draft coverage, click here.

2. Rodon to make season debut:

Left-hander Carlos Rodon is poised to make his regular season Yankees debut today after missing the first half of the season with a forearm strain and back tightness. Rodon will take the ball for tonight’s game against the Cubs, which starts at 6:05pm CT. Rodon is currently on the 60-day injured list, meaning the Yankees will need to make both a 40-man roster move and an active roster move to accommodate him prior to the game.

Rodon’s return comes as the Yankees seek their first series win in July. The ace lefty sports a 2.62 ERA and 2.42 FIP in 310 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2021 season with a 33.9% strikeout rate during that time. He’ll join fellow ace Gerrit Cole atop the Yankees rotation, with right-handers Luis Severino, Domingo German, and Clarke Schmidt following up the duo. Even after Rodon’s return, the Yankees will still have two of their five planned rotation members for 2023 on the shelf in lefty Nestor Cortes and righty Frankie Montas.

3. Manoah to return:

Right-hander Alek Manoah is set to take the ball for the Blue Jays against the Tigers tonight at 5:40pm CT. It will be Manoah’s first big league appearance in just over a month, coming on the heels of Toronto optioning the 2022 AL Cy Young finalist to the lowest rung of the minors after he struggled to a 6.36 ERA and 6.53 FIP across 13 starts to open the season. That brutal stretch culminated in a six-run drubbing by the Astros where Manoah threw 38 pitches and recorded just one out.

The Blue Jays are surely hoping that Manoah’s figured something out during his time away, as the 25-year-old hurler looked like one of the most promising youngsters in all of baseball entering the 2023 campaign. During the first two seasons of his career, Manoah posted a phenomenal 2.60 ERA and solid 3.51 FIP across 51 starts. Upon Manoah’s return, Toronto’s Opening Day rotation that also featured Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi will once again be intact.

Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates: Early July Edition

By Anthony Franco | July 6, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

With the calendar flipping to July, trade season has officially arrived. We’ve already seen a couple early deals. The Angels swung a pair of late-June moves for stopgap veteran help on the infield. The Rangers closed out that month with the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman, arguably the top rental reliever available and a player who was ranked fifth on an early draft of this list.

As we do every summer, MLBTR will look at the top deadline candidates. This is not a strict ranking of players’ trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved. We’re trying to balance both of those things, which inherently involves subjectivity. A player in the top ten might have significantly less appeal than someone at the bottom of the list, but if they’re far more likely to be dealt for a return of some note, they’ll be higher on this kind of ranking.

With that brief methodology aside, let’s get to the list:

1. Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox

The #4 player on our recent Free Agent Power Rankings, Giolito is the only member of our top six free agents who has much of a chance to move at the deadline. That makes him a natural fit to top this list.

The White Sox got off to a slow start and have never pulled themselves out. They’re vaguely kept afloat by an AL Central in which no team has consistently been better than .500, but they’re 7 1/2 games back with a -59 run differential. It’s division or bust, and they’re only alive in the division because of the other clubs’ mediocrity.

Giolito isn’t quite an ace, but he has put last year’s struggles behind him and again looks like a #2 arm on a contender. He has been durable, pounds the strike zone, and misses bats at an above-average clip. Over 18 starts, the 6’6″ righty has a 3.50 ERA with a quality 25.6% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk percentage. He’s a clear playoff-caliber starter on a market that might not have many of those.

The White Sox could make him a qualifying offer if they hold onto him for the stretch run. That’s theoretically possible given the divisional context, but they’d get much more future value if they traded him this summer. Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote in May that the Sox were unlikely to try to retain Giolito past the 2023 campaign.

2. Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Nationals

Candelario is a virtual lock to move within the next few weeks. Washington signed the third baseman to a $5MM deal after he was non-tendered by the Tigers. The move has worked out beautifully, as the switch-hitting infielder has posted a .261/.338/.477 line with strong defensive metrics.

Nats’ GM Mike Rizzo told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic last week he was setting a high asking price on Candelario early in deadline season. That’s understandable with a month to go, but the club eventually figures to pull the trigger on the best offer available. Candelario would be a fringe qualifying offer candidate, so Washington’s best chance to recoup future value is by moving him this summer.

3. Scott Barlow, RP, Royals

The Royals already moved Chapman. Barlow seems likely to follow him out of Kansas City. There’s a little less urgency on Barlow, since K.C. can control him via arbitration for 2024. They don’t have a shot at competing this season, though, and Barlow’s appeal would drop next winter or at the ’24 deadline (when an acquiring team would only have his services for one playoff push).

Barlow posted a sub 2.50 ERA over exactly 74 1/3 innings in both seasons between 2021-22. He hasn’t been quite as effective this year, carrying a 4.06 mark over 31 frames. His walks are up and his average fastball velocity is down a couple ticks from where it sat two years ago. Regardless, he has proven himself capable of handling the ninth inning and continues to miss bats in droves. He’s picking up swinging strikes on over 14% of his offerings for a third consecutive season and is striking out just under a third of opposing hitters. With a season and a half of club control, he’s the most valuable realistic trade candidate on the Royals’ roster.

4. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Cardinals

5. Jack Flaherty, SP, Cardinals

The Cardinals are among a handful of National League teams amidst very disappointing seasons. St. Louis has gone from first to last in the NL Central. The division is weak enough it’s still vaguely in sight, but the Cards haven’t gotten on the run necessary to pull themselves back into the mix. They’re a long shot to make the playoffs at this point, so their top impending free agents are strong trade candidates.

Montgomery is one of the better starters on next year’s free agent market. The left-hander is a capable #3 arm, a mid-3.00s ERA type. He has allowed 3.28 runs per nine this season, backing that up with solid underlying marks across the board. He’d almost certainly receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cardinals could keep him and get back a draft choice if he signs elsewhere. They should be able to bring in a more valuable prospect package in trade, though.

Flaherty is unlikely to receive a QO. He wouldn’t bring back a Montgomery return in trade, but he’d still have some appeal on the market. The right-hander is no longer the Cy Young caliber arm he showed in 2019, as various injuries have limited him over the past few seasons. He has had an up-and-down 2023 campaign, walking over 12% of opponents and posting a 4.60 ERA through 16 starts. Flaherty has decent strikeout and grounder marks, but he’s more of a high-variance rotation add than a lock to start a playoff game at this point.

6. Marcus Stroman, SP, Cubs

Stroman has had an excellent second season in Chicago. The right-hander carries a personal-low 2.76 ERA across 107 2/3 innings with peripherals that closely match his best days in Toronto. He’s inducing grounders on almost three-fifths of batted balls and has consistently prevented home runs at an elite clip. It’s more of a contact management profile than an overpowering one, but his 21.3% strikeout rate isn’t far off the 22% league average for starting pitchers.

Despite a +24 run differential, the Cubs are five games under .500 and six games back in the Wild Card race. It’s not impossible, but they’d need a strong run over these next few weeks to play off the selling bubble.

Stroman isn’t a true rental, as his contract contains a $21MM player option for next season. That’s pure downside for an acquiring team — he’d only exercise it if he has a disastrous second half or suffers a serious injury — but the likeliest scenario is that Stroman continues pitching well and decides to test the open market. Stroman has publicly angled for an extension with the Cubs. The team has seemingly not shown the same interest. Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of the Athletic wrote over the weekend they were unlikely to explore a long-team deal before the trade deadline.

The Cubs can’t issue Stroman a qualifying offer, since he has already received one in his career and players can’t be tagged with a QO twice under the CBA. A trade would be the only way to land compensation if he declines the player option and the team is not interested in a new contract.

7. David Robertson, RP, Mets

With Chapman off the market, Robertson now appears the top rental reliever available. It’s the second straight season in which the veteran righty could be a coveted deadline piece. The Cubs brought back pitching prospect Ben Brown from Philadelphia last summer; the Mets could do something similar this year.

Robertson signed a $10MM free agent deal and was pushed into the ninth inning by Edwin Díaz’s catastrophic knee injury. The Mets have had a disastrous season, but that’s no fault of Robertson. He has a 1.88 ERA over 35 appearances, striking out 30% of batters faced. It’s rare to find relievers with the consistency and playoff experience Robertson brings to the table. He’ll be in demand, and Mets’ owner Steve Cohen admitted last week the team wasn’t close enough to contention to buy. Perhaps an ongoing four-game win streak can kickstart the season and prevent a sell-off, but New York is still 6 1/2 games out of the Wild Card with five teams to pass.

8. Shane Bieber, SP, Guardians

Bieber’s trade candidacy rests more on the Guardians’ pitching depth than their competitive window. While Cleveland has underperformed, they’re still very much a postseason contender. The Guardians are two games back of the Twins in the AL Central. They were in a similar spot at this point last year before getting hot in September to run away with the division.

Trading Bieber strictly for prospects seems unlikely, but Cleveland could shop him in an effort to inject some life into the offense. Adding controllable outfield talent could be particularly welcome. It’s a script Cleveland has followed on a few occasions in the past. Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger have all been shipped off as the organization’s pitching development pipeline churns out similarly productive and less expensive young pitchers. Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee have all gotten to the big leagues this season.

Bieber hasn’t been as dominant as he was a few years back. His velocity hasn’t been the same since a 2021 shoulder injury and this year’s 19.3% strikeout rate is the first below-average mark of his career. Even if he’s no longer a Cy Young caliber hurler, Bieber looks the part of an effective #3 type. He’s sixth in the majors with 110 2/3 innings pitched and sports a 3.66 ERA with plus control and a solid 46.3% grounder rate. The right-hander is making a hair over $10MM this season and is eligible for arbitration once more before hitting free agency.

9. Michael Lorenzen, SP, Tigers

The Tigers are still within shouting distance in the AL Central. Perhaps they play well enough over the next few weeks to hold off a teardown. 11 games under .500 with a -86 run differential, they don’t look like a playoff team and would be more or less buried if they played in any other division. This was always likely to be an evaluation year for a new front office regime, one which saw them deal short-term veterans at the deadline.

Lorenzen is probably the most appealing of the rental players on the roster. The athletic right-hander is playing on an $8.5MM free agent deal. Over 14 starts entering this afternoon’s outing, he carries a 4.28 ERA. He’s missing bats at a career-low rate but throwing plenty more strikes than he has in years past. Lorenzen looks like a stable #5 starter, a player contenders can bring in to fortify their rotation depth and kick to the bullpen (where he’s had success in prior seasons) come playoff time. The return wouldn’t be huge, but this is more or less what the Tigers envisioned when they signed him last December.

10. Tommy Pham, LF, Mets

Pham started the season ice cold, but he has somewhat quietly been one of the sport’s best hitters since the calendar turned to May. He’s up to a .286/.355/.510 line through 217 plate appearances overall. At his best, Pham has combined stellar plate discipline with huge exit velocities and solid contact skills. He hits a few too many grounders to be a prototypical power threat, but he’s a well-rounded offensive player who can hit left and right-handed pitching alike.

The 35-year-old is a fringe corner outfield defender at this stage of his career. He’s an affordable bat a contender could feel comfortable plugging into the middle of a lineup for the stretch run. Pham is playing this season on a $6MM salary, and Cohen already showed a willingness to pay down money on Eduardo Escobar to facilitate a better trade return. New York could do the same on Pham, who acknowledged to Bill Ladson of MLB.com last week that the club’s surprising struggles make him a viable trade candidate.

11. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B, Cubs

Bellinger signed with the Cubs on a one-year, $17MM free agent guarantee after being non-tendered by the Dodgers. The buy-low flier initially looked like an excellent move. The former MVP hit .271/.343/.493 through 163 plate appearances while playing plus center field defense through mid-May. His exit velocities were still nowhere close to peak levels, but he’d dramatically sliced his strikeout rate to put together a well above-average overall batting line.

A left knee contusion interrupted that hot start and cost Bellinger nearly a month of action. He’s hitting .317 in 62 plate appearances since returning but has walked just four times and doesn’t have a home run in 17 games. After easing him back to action at first base, the Cubs returned him to center field last week.

Bellinger isn’t back to his MVP form, but he’s amidst easily his best season since 2020. It’s rare to find plus defensive center fielders with any kind of offensive upside. Bellinger can impact the game on both sides of the ball, even if it’s now more of a contact-first profile than an all-around impact bat. He’ll return to free agency next winter, likely by declining his end of a mutual option, making him a straightforward rental trade candidate. Unlike Stroman, Bellinger is eligible to receive a qualifying offer. The Cubs could land draft pick compensation, but they’d probably do better than that in trade.

12. Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Tigers

Rodriguez just returned from a finger injury yesterday. He got lit up by the A’s, but he carried a 2.13 ERA through 11 starts before landing on the shelf. The veteran southpaw has punched out over a quarter of opponents and shown his typically strong control. After his first season in Detroit was marred by injuries and personal issues, Rodriguez looks like the mid-rotation arm the Tigers expected when they signed him to a five-year, $77MM guarantee two offseasons back.

Few pitchers who could be available in trade have performed as well as Rodriguez has through the season’s first half. Were he a pure rental, he might be at the top of this list. His contract makes a trade far trickier to execute. Rodriguez can opt out of the final three years and $49MM on his deal at season’s end. He’s ineligible for a qualifying offer on a non-competitive team. If the Tigers hold onto him past the deadline, there’s a strong chance they lose him next winter for nothing.

On the other hand, the remaining money represents rather significant downside for a potential acquiring club. If Rodriguez suffers another injury or sees his performance tail off, the team could be saddled with a contract that looked like a landmine just a few months ago. It’s a more extreme version of the downside present with Stroman, thereby pushing him down the list a few spots.

13. Lance Lynn, SP, White Sox

Lynn has had a rough 2023 campaign. He owns a 6.47 ERA over 96 innings, a figure almost entirely attributable to an MLB-worst 22 home runs allowed. That’ll be tough for a number of fans and some front offices to look past. Still, there’s some amount of appeal for teams that feel Lynn can get the longball under control — either via natural regression or with a move to a more favorable home park for pitchers.

The veteran righty is striking out just under 27% of batters faced while racking up whiffs on an excellent 13.5% of his offerings. He doesn’t issue many walks, hasn’t missed a start this year, and posted a sub-4.00 ERA every season between 2019-22. The homers and a slight velocity dip are obvious concerns, but Lynn’s ability to miss bats is strong as ever. The White Sox hold an $18MM option on his services for 2024. That’s probably beyond their comfort zone, which makes marketing him this summer a logical choice.

14. Mark Canha, LF/1B, Mets

15. Brooks Raley, RP, Mets

Canha and Raley are the next tier down of Mets’ trade candidates. Unlike Robertson and Pham, they’re not certainly headed for free agency. New York could bring both players back via club option — Canha at $11.5MM ($2MM buyout), Raley at $6.25MM ($1.25MM buyout). Both prices are a little lofty for their current production but not out of the question for a Mets’ club that spends more freely than any other.

If New York is leaning towards a buyout on either player, they could make them available to a clearer ’23 contender. Canha’s a veteran righty bat who plays decent corner outfield defense. He’s hitting .248/.344/.405 on the season, including a .239/.360/.437 mark against lefty pitching. Raley is a situational left-hander out of the bullpen. He owns a 2.35 ERA with an above-average 26% strikeout rate. He’s been better against right-handers than lefties this season but carries traditional platoon splits over the course of his career.

16. Paul Blackburn, SP, Athletics

Blackburn might be the most valuable trade chip on a stripped-down A’s roster. The righty spent the first couple months on the injured list with fingernail/blister issues. He’s been effective in seven starts since returning, working to a 4.50 ERA with good control and a solid 24.7% strikeout rate over 36 innings.

While he’s not overpowering, Blackburn has looked the part of a strike-throwing back-end starter when healthy. Already 29, he’s probably not a core piece of the ongoing rebuild. He’s an affordable arm who should appeal to contenders looking for stability at the back of the starting staff. Blackburn is making $1.9MM this season and is arbitration-eligible through 2025.

17. Joe Kelly, RP, White Sox

18. Keynan Middleton, RP, White Sox

19. Reynaldo López, RP, White Sox

If the White Sox decide to look ahead to 2024, they’d be a major factor on the relief market. Chicago has a trio of potential impending free agent relievers (Kelly’s contract contains a ’24 club option at a net $8.5MM decision) who’d attract varying levels of interest.

Kelly is one of the game’s hardest throwers and has a track record of an enviable strikeout/ground-ball combination. He has had an up-and-down career but looks like a high-leverage arm when he’s going well. He just landed on the 15-day injured list with elbow inflammation this afternoon. That could obviously impact his trade candidacy, though it’s unknown how long he’ll be out of action.

Middleton appeared on his way to journeyman status a few months ago. He has proven to be one of the top minor league signees of last winter, pitching 30 innings with a 2.70 ERA and above-average strikeout and ground-ball marks. López has struggled with walks and home runs and has an ERA above 5.00, but his fastball pushes triple-digits and he misses plenty of bats. Another club figures to roll the dice on that upside despite his subpar overall production.

20. Aaron Civale, SP, Guardians

To a lesser extent, Civale’s trade candidacy follows the same logic as Bieber’s. The Guardians have ample young pitching that could allow them to cash in a veteran arm for short-term offensive help. Civale isn’t as appealing as Bieber. The 28-year-old righty has been more of a back-of-the-rotation type throughout his career. This year’s 2.96 ERA over eight starts is more attributable to batted ball and sequencing fortune than an overhaul in his approach.

Civale is a control specialist with a 3.95 ERA in just shy of 400 career innings. It’s #4 starter production on a rate basis, although he’s battled injuries and never topped 125 MLB frames in a single season. Civale is making $2.6MM this year and eligible for arbitration twice more thereafter.

21. Paul DeJong, SS, Cardinals

DeJong has reemerged as a viable trade candidate with a nice 2023 campaign. The righty-hitting shortstop is hitting .234/.310/.449 with 12 homers over 229 plate appearances, including a .275/.387/.510 showing against left-handed pitching. After two dismal offensive showings in 2021-22, he has played his way back into regular shortstop duty in St. Louis.

The Cardinals hold a $12.5MM option ($2MM buyout) on his services for 2024. That’s not an outlandish number, particularly in light of a dreadful upcoming shortstop class in free agency, but it still seems likely St. Louis would opt for the buyout with Tommy Edman on hand and prospect Masyn Winn not far off. With hope for a playoff push getting fainter with every demoralizing loss, the Cardinals should gauge the trade market.

22. Justin Turner, 3B, Red Sox

23. James Paxton, SP, Red Sox

24. Nick Pivetta, RP/SP, Red Sox

25. Adam Duvall, CF, Red Sox

The status of this group could well come down to the next few weeks. The Red Sox are above .500 but in last place in a loaded AL East. They’re four games out of the Wild Card with two teams to surpass. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has acknowledged the deadline could go in a number of directions based on the team’s upcoming performance.

If Boston were to fall more clearly out of contention, anyone in this group could go. Paxton and Duvall are pure rentals. The veteran left-hander has rebounded from two injury-plagued seasons to post a 2.70 ERA with an elite 31.1% strikeout rate over 10 starts. Duvall was on a tear early this year before breaking his wrist and missing two months. He has been ice cold since coming back but has a long track record of right-handed power production and solid outfield defense, albeit with on-base concerns.

Turner looks likely to join Paxton and Duvall on the open market. He has a $13.4MM player option. That comes with a $6.7MM buyout, meaning he’d only need to top the matching $6.7MM difference on the open market to make opting out a reasonable financial strategy. Considering he’s hitting .282/.354/.461, he looks on his way to doing that with ease.

Pivetta has never consistently found his stride as a starting pitcher, but he’s been excellent since moving to relief a couple months ago. Over 24 frames as a reliever, he owns a 2.63 ERA while striking out more than 32% of batters faced. He could draw interest either in his current multi-inning bullpen role or from a team looking to stretch him back out for rotation work. Pivetta is making $5.35MM and eligible for arbitration one more time.

26. C.J. Cron, 1B, Rockies

Cron is an impending free agent on a last place team. He’s a fairly straightforward trade candidate if he’s performing well enough to draw interest. The veteran first baseman has had a tough season to this point, hitting .248/.293/.441 and missing a few weeks with a back problem. He returned to the diamond last week and has around a month to try to play his way into some interest.

The right-handed hitter topped 25 home runs in each of the four full seasons between 2018-22. He’s making $7.5MM and could draw attention as a role-playing power bat, particularly if the Rox pay down some of the deal.

27. Brad Hand, RP, Rockies

28. José Cisnero, RP, Tigers

29. Jordan Hicks, RP, Cardinals

30. Chris Stratton, RP, Cardinals

31. Michael Fulmer, RP, Cubs

Each player in this tier could be an impending free agent reliever on a fringe or worse contender. Hand has had a nice bounceback season after signing with Colorado over the winter. His contract contains a $7MM club option that becomes a mutual provision if he’s traded. Cisnero is a 34-year-old righty with a 2.18 ERA and above-average peripherals in 33 innings for the Tigers.

Hicks throws as hard as anyone in the game. He’s running huge strikeout and ground-ball numbers while walking nearly 15% of opponents. Stratton, his St. Louis teammate, has fanned just over a quarter of opponents and soaked up 42 1/3 innings through 31 outings in middle relief. Fulmer started his Cubs’ career slowly but has allowed only two runs in 16 innings going back to the beginning of June.

32. Kyle Hendricks, SP, Cubs

Hendricks has been effective in eight starts since returning from last year’s season-ending shoulder injury. Through 47 innings, the veteran righty carries a 2.64 ERA. His 44.2% grounder rate is roughly average, and he’s never missed bats or thrown hard. Few pitchers have better control, though, and Hendricks is currently healthy and producing.

This could be his final season with the Cubs. Chicago likely wouldn’t bring him back on a $16MM club option, so he’s more or less a rental starter on a fringe contender. Maybe the trade returns wouldn’t be significant enough for the Cubs to part with a player who has meant so much to the franchise — especially if they can still see a path to contention — but it wouldn’t be surprising if his name comes up in discussions.

33. Josh Hader, RP, Padres

34. Blake Snell, SP, Padres

The Padres are riding a three-game win streak, pulling them to 41-46. They’re six games out of a Wild Card spot with three teams to jump. It’s an uphill battle but one an underperforming San Diego team feels they can achieve. Both president of baseball operations A.J. Preller (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) and chairman Peter Seidler said last week the team is still focused on contending this year.

San Diego probably isn’t listening to trade offers on Hader or Snell yet. If they flounder again over the next few weeks, the standings might force the club’s hand to put their impending free agents on the market. If that happens, Snell and Hader would vault near the top of this list in a hurry.

35. Tyler O’Neill, LF, Cardinals

36. Joey Bart, C, Giants

37. Bobby Dalbec, 3B, Red Sox

38. Jo Adell, LF, Angels

39. Josh Rojas, 3B, D-Backs

40. Nick Senzel, 3B/CF, Reds

Broadly speaking, this group of six players are speculative change-of-scenery candidates. O’Neill has paired 30-homer power with Gold Glove defense at his best. He hasn’t performed as well since the start of 2022 and has spent the past couple months on the injured list with a back problem. He’s likely to be back in the majors by the trade deadline. The Cardinals have a number of younger, more affordable outfielders and could try to move O’Neill this summer rather than face a tough call on whether to tender him a contract for his final arbitration season.

Bart is a former second overall pick who has been leapfrogged on the Giants’ catching depth chart by Patrick Bailey. He’s a .223/.293/.342 hitter at the big league level but has been better in Triple-A.

Dalbec has been inconsistent as a big leaguer, flashing huge power but striking out a ton. He’s having a monster season in Triple-A (.298/.415/.654 with 20 homers in 54 games) but only gotten 14 scattered MLB plate appearances this year. Dalbec recently admitted to Christopher Smith of MassLive that he doesn’t see a clear path to regular playing time in Boston with Rafael Devers, Justin Turner and Triston Casas all on the roster.

Adell is another former top prospect who has mashed in the upper minors but struggled to make contact against big league pitching. He’ll be out of options next season and has only appeared in three MLB games this year. Maybe the Mike Trout hamate injury clears the path to everyday playing for Adell at Angel Stadium, but the Halos are under pressure to win now and could try to move him for a lower-upside but more stable veteran outfielder.

Rojas was a good bat-first utility player for the Diamondbacks in 2021-22. He had an awful start to the ’23 campaign, hitting .235/.301/.306 without a home run in 57 games. Arizona optioned him late last month, and he recently landed on the minor league injured list. His value is at perhaps its lowest ebb, but he’d be a non-tender candidate next winter. Arizona could sell low to a team like the Tigers or Royals that can afford to give him a few months to rediscover his previous level.

Senzel is a former second overall draftee who hasn’t found much big league success. The Reds have graduated a number of infield prospects and pushed him to the bench. He’s not hitting right-handed pitching at all but carries a .373/.422/.627 line against southpaws. Senzel can play multiple positions and could be of interest as a righty-swinging utility piece.

41. Hunter Harvey, RP, Nationals

42. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Nationals

43. Alex Lange, RP, Tigers

44. Jason Foley, RP, Tigers

This crop of relievers all has multiple seasons of control on non-competitive teams. They’re less likely to be dealt than the rental relievers mentioned above but would bring back stronger returns if made available.

Harvey has had myriad injury issues throughout his career but been healthy and effective this year. He owns a 3.16 ERA while striking out nearly 28% of opponents over 37 innings. Finnegan has a 3.34 ERA with average peripherals across 35 frames.

Lange has spotty control but misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at plus rates. He’s taken over as Detroit’s closer and is under arbitration control through 2027. Foley is also controllable through the ’27 campaign and has somewhat quietly had a breakout year. The righty averages north of 97 MPH on his fastball and has induced grounders on over three-fifths of batted balls. He has a 2.17 ERA in 37 appearances.

45. Rich Hill, SP, Pirates

46. Carlos Santana, 1B, Pirates

The Pirates have faded after a strong April and could find themselves listening on short-term players. Pittsburgh isn’t truly rebuilding anymore, but both Hill and Santana are veterans on a team that’s now six games under .500. The seemingly ageless Hill has a 4.50 ERA with roughly average strikeout and walk numbers over 17 starts. Santana has a modest .241/.320/.407 line over 321 plate appearances, but he’s a switch-hitter and a plus defender at first base.

47. Yan Gomes, C, Cubs

Gomes is another of the Cubs’ potential impending free agents who could find some interest. It’d be relatively modest in his case, but he’s a respected veteran backstop having a decent season. The 35-year-old is hitting .265/.308/.412 with seven homers in 185 trips to the plate. His contract contains a $6MM club option for next season.

48. Teoscar Hernández, RF, Mariners

The Mariners are another team that finds itself on the fringe of contention. Seattle is a game under .500 and five out of a Wild Card spot with four clubs to surpass. They’re not likely to sell off veterans until right up to the deadline, but a bad few weeks could force the front office to listen.

Hernández hasn’t hit as expected during his first season in Seattle. He owns a .252/.301/.441 line with 15 homers over 85 games. That’s below the level he’d shown over his past few years in Toronto. Hernández has picked things up after a terrible first two months, though, and he’d surely find some interest if the M’s were to put him on the market.

49. Lane Thomas, RF, Nationals

Thomas has proven an excellent pickup for Washington since heading over in the 2021 deadline deal that sent Jon Lester to St. Louis. The right-handed hitting outfielder is amidst a career year, hitting .304/.351/.509 with 14 homers through 365 plate appearances. He has been a nightmare for opposing southpaws, teeing off at a .385/.434/.683 clip when holding the platoon advantage.

Soon to turn 28, Thomas is eligible for arbitration for two seasons beyond this one. The Nationals would hold firm to a lofty asking price given that extended control window, but they’re near the nadir of a rebuild and probably won’t contend for a postseason spot until Thomas’ final year of arbitration at the earliest.

50. Max Scherzer, SP, Mets

There might be no more fascinating potential trade candidate than Scherzer. The three-time Cy Young winner is the second season of a record-setting free agent deal that pays him $43.333MM annually. He can opt out at year’s end, leaving the Mets in an interesting position.

If New York feels Scherzer is likely to opt out and they’re not viable contenders this season, exploring trade possibilities makes sense. The contract makes him a very difficult player to actually move, however. Scherzer has full no-trade rights for one, although there’s been some chatter he could waive that to facilitate a trade to a contender. The salary is high enough a number of teams wouldn’t even try to make it work, though Cohen’s willingness to pay down contracts for a better return could solve that issue.

That’s before getting to Scherzer’s performance, which has been more good than exceptional this year. He has a 4.03 ERA across 82 2/3 innings. His strikeout and walk numbers are excellent but below typical levels. He’s allowing more home runs than ever before. There’s no doubt Scherzer is still a playoff-caliber starter, but his production this season hasn’t been that of a true Game One ace.

Others To Watch

A’s: Seth Brown, Shintaro Fujinami, Sam Moll, Ryan Noda

Astros: Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers

Cardinals: Giovanny Gallegos

Cubs: Mark Leiter Jr., Drew Smyly, Patrick Wisdom

Mariners: Tom Murphy

Mets: Carlos Carrasco, Adam Ottavino

Nationals: Corey Dickerson, Carl Edwards Jr., Dominic Smith

Orioles: Jorge Mateo

Padres: Luis García

Pirates: Austin Hedges

Red Sox: Enrique Hernández, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin