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The Opener: Cabrera, Marlins, Astros/Diamondbacks

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As the 2023 regular season’s final weekend begins, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Miggy’s Final Series:

Future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera will put the finishing touches on an illustrious career in Detroit this weekend. The 40-year-old veteran owns a career slash line of .306/.382/.518 with 3,168 hits (17th all-time), 510 home runs (26th), and 624 doubles (T-13th). Though he started his career with the then-Florida Marlins, Cabrera suited up for the Tigers in nearly 75% of his career games, allowing him to stand along side franchise legends like Ty Cobb and Al Kaline on the club’s offensive leaderboards. With three games against the Guardians left to go in the 2023 campaign for Detroit, Tigers fans will get their final chance to say goodbye to the twelve-time All Star and back-to-back AL MVP award winner. As manager A.J. Hinch told reporters recently (including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News), the plan is for Cabrera to play all three games in the series.

2. NL Playoff Picture Muddied By Suspended Game:

Last night’s game between the Mets and Marlins was suspended with two outs in the top of the ninth after a delay of over three hours, with the Marlins leading 2-1. The game, as noted by Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, is set to be completed at 12:10pm CT on Monday, after the regular season is completed, should the game be necessary for determining the playoff field or seeding. With Miami’s game last night incomplete, the club heads into today with a half-game lead on the Cubs and a 1.5 game lead on the Reds for the third and final NL Wild Card spot. They also trail the Diamondbacks by 1.5 games for the second spot.

Last night’s suspension is surely frustrating for the Marlins, particularly in the event that they have to finish the suspended game en route to a postseason appearance. Miami would then figure to travel from Pittsburgh to New York for the game on Monday, after the regular season has concluded, before hitting the road again to start the Wild Card series in Milwaukee or Philadelphia the very next day.

3. Series Preview: Astros @ Diamondbacks

No series this weekend figures to have more impact on the postseason picture than the three game set between the Astros and Diamondbacks in Arizona. Both teams are currently in playoff position, but have not clinched a spot in the postseason, much less what seed they’ll occupy. In the NL, the Diamondbacks have the aforementioned 1.5 game lead on the Marlins for the second NL Wild Card spot, with the Cubs lurking two games behind them. Meanwhile, the Astros occupy the final AL Wild Card spot, with the Mariners sitting just a game behind them. An additional wrinkle for Houston is that the AL West is still winnable for them, as they sit just two games behind the Rangers for the division lead and the first-round bye that comes with it.

The series with kick off at 8:40pm CT with Astros rookie J.P. France (3.83 ERA) facing off against DBacks ace Zac Gallen (3.49 ERA). Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander (3.32 ERA) will take the mound on Saturday opposite Arizona’s as-of-now unannounced starter, while neither club has announced a start for the regular season finale on Sunday.

Orioles Agree To 30-Year Lease At Camden Yards

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The Orioles are staying at Camden Yards for the foreseeable future, as Orioles chairman John Angelos and Maryland Governor Wes Moore announced this evening. The organization, the state of Maryland, and the Maryland Stadium Authority have agreed upon a new lease that will keep the Orioles in Baltimore for another 30 years. Per Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner, the deal includes two five-year extension options that could extend the terms of the lease into the 2060s.

The news brings to an end negotiations regarding the Orioles’ future in Baltimore. The club first moved into Camden Yards back in 1992 on a 30-year lease that was set to expire just three months from now, at the end of the 2023 calendar year. The Orioles held a five-year extension option on the club’s current lease but declined to exercise it this past February with the goal of reaching an agreement on a longer-term deal later in the year. That goal has now been achieved, though the specific terms of the deal between the club, the local stadium authority, and the state are currently unknown, with full details on the lease expected on Friday.

Angelos had previously been reported to be seeking additional funding and public land in the stadium deal as recently as last month, with Angelos reportedly interested in replicating The Battery in Atlanta, which houses not only the Braves’ Truist Park but a complex of various commercial and residential uses including apartments, restaurants, shops, and event spaces. Complicating those desires is the agreement the Maryland Stadium Authority has in place with the Baltimore Ravens, which contains a clause requiring parity between the Ravens and Orioles regarding the terms of their respective leases.

While it’s unclear if any of the funding or land Angelos was seeking is part of the new lease agreement, it’s worth noting that at the time of the report, sources indicated to The Baltimore Banner that the Orioles would not receive the land and funding they were seeking, and Kostka now reports that plans for a Battery-style development in Baltimore were taken off the table. Regardless of the final terms of the agreement, Kostka notes that the new lease will unlock $600MM worth of state-financed bonds that the Orioles will be able to use to renovate the ballpark in the coming years.

With negotiations regarding potential relocation and stadium renovations nearing varying conclusions in Oakland (or rather, Las Vegas), Tampa, and now Baltimore, MLB continues to clear the way for a potential expansion effort in the coming years. That said, there are still teams that have expressed a willingness to move out of their current stadium: in recent weeks, comments from both Brewers owner Mark Attanasio and White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf have indicated a desire to secure public funding for stadium renovations in the future.

AL East Notes: Volpe, Martin, Siri

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It’s been an up-and-down rookie season for Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe, who made the Opening Day roster and has stuck as the club’s everyday shortstop despite offensive struggles. Overall, he’s slashed .207/.283/.383 in 587 plate appearances this year while manning shortstop in 153 of the club’s games so far this year. Defensive metrics disagree on his glovework this year, with Statcast’s Fielding Run Value placing Volpe tenth among fifteen shortstops with at least 1,000 innings of work with a +1 figure, while Fielding Bible’s Defensive Runs Saved places him behind only Dansby Swanson in that same group.

According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the Yankees are pondering Volpe’s role headed into the 2024 season thanks to Oswald Peraza, who scouting reports typically grade as the superior defensive shortstop of the two, with Martino suggesting the club’s best defensive alignment involves Volpe at second base with Peraza at shortstop. Perhaps the biggest obstacle to such a change would be Gleyber Torres, the club’s incumbent second baseman. Torres has no defensive experience outside of the middle infield, but has been the club’s best hitter in 2023 this side of Aaron Judge with a solid .272/.345/.455 slash line.

Given Torres’s importance to the club this year, it’s hard to imagine the Yankees displacing him to accommodate Peraza, who has yet to establish himself with the bat in the majors. After all, Peraza has slashed just .194/.275/.275 in 178 trips to the plate in the majors this year, though his .268/.357/.479 slash line in 300 Triple-A plate appearances this year could indicate another level to the 23-year-old youngster’s game.

More from around the AL East…

  • Prior to today’s game in Baltimore, the Red Sox placed veteran right-hander Chris Martin on the 15-day injured list with a viral infection. Right-hander Nick Robertson was recalled in a corresponding move. The move closes the book on what has been a sensational season for Martin after he signed with the Red Sox on a two-year, $17.5MM deal this past offseason. In 51 1/3 innings of work this year, Martin sports an astonishing 1.05 ERA that leads the majors among pitchers with at least 30 innings of work, just barely edging out Josh Hader’s 1.16 figure. Martin figures to be a key piece of the Boston bullpen headed into the 2024 campaign.
  • The Rays received good news yesterday regarding center fielder Jose Siri, according to MLB.com. Siri, who suffered a fractured right hand after being hit by a pitch earlier this month, underwent imaging earlier this week and received encouraging results, with manager Kevin Cash indicating that Siri could resume baseball activities as soon as today in an effort to return to the club this postseason. Siri has combined excellent outfield defense with a solid bat this season, slashing .222/.267/.494 with 25 home runs in 364 trips to the plate.

Byron Buxton Discusses Postseason Availability, Knee Injury

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Twins outfielder Byron Buxton has had a difficult year in 2023, struggling to a roughly league average slash line of .207/.294/.438 in just 82 games while being relegated exclusively to DH duties thanks to troubles with his right knee, on which he underwent surgery this past offseason. With Minnesota having punched its ticket to the postseason, Buxton is nonetheless hoping to return to help the Twins win their first postseason game since 2004 despite not having played in a professional game since August 1.

In a recent interview with La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune, Buxton discussed his hopes of playing in the postseason this year and the injury that’s bothered him all throughout the 2023 season. Perhaps most notably, Neal notes that Buxton’s knee has given him more trouble than was known publicly to this point or that the Twins anticipated it would. Buxton tells Neal that his role as the club’s DH was initially meant to be a temporary situation, but the knee has caused him discomfort throughout much of the season and has needed to be drained multiple times.

Neal notes that young infielder Royce Lewis is likely to take up the DH spot in the postseason lineup while he nurses a hamstring strain that’s prevented him from taking the field. That leaves Buxton unlikely to return to the lineup as a DH in the postseason, meaning that he’ll need to prove he’s healthy enough to play the field in addition to hitting. That leaves Buxton vying for reps in center field against Michael A. Taylor, who has posted a solid season as the club’s regular center fielder in place of Buxton.

Per Neal, Buxton met with Twins manager Rocco Baldelli on Wednesday in order to make the argument that he should be included on the postseason roster. As things stand right now, whether or not Buxton will make an appearance on the club’s postseason roster figures to be decided by how Buxton performs in workouts at Target Field over the weekend, with Neal noting that Buxton is set to hit, run, and play center field while the Twins face the Rockies in Colorado this weekend.

The interview sheds light on the Twins’ postseason plans, indicating that Lewis figures to return to the lineup alongside shortstop Carlos Correa, who was previously reported as expected to rejoin the lineup in time for (or before) the postseason. Regardless of whether Buxton is able to return to the Twins before the 2023 campaign comes to a close, Neal relays a piece of positive news regarding Buxton’s health: per Twins trainer Nick Paparesta, the surgically repaired part of Buxton’s knee is still improving and he shouldn’t be impacted by the injury headed into 2024, which will be his age-30 season.

Pirates Shut Down Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras For 2023

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Pirates manager Derek Shelton told reporters, including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, this afternoon that right-handers Mitch Keller and Roansy Contreras would not pitch again this year, as both players have been shut down for the remainder of the 2023 campaign. With the Pirates well outside the playoff picture and just three games remaining on the club’s schedule after today, the news isn’t a major surprise, though it’s worth noting that Keller was otherwise lined up to take the ball for the club’s final game of the season against the Marlins.

The news officially brings to an end what has been a strong campaign for Keller, who sits atop Pittsburgh’s starting rotation. The former second-round pick struggled badly through the first three seasons of his big league career, with a 6.02 ERA that was 28% worse than league average by measure of ERA+ with a 4.30 FIP in 170 1/3 innings of work (39 starts). Things began to turn around for Keller last season, however, as he posted a solid 3.91 ERA (104 ERA+) with a 3.88 FIP in 159 innings of work. While Keller’s 20.1% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate last year didn’t exactly jump off the page, he did generate an impressive 49% groundball rate in 2022.

Despite it being his fifth season as a big leaguer, Keller was still just 27 years old headed into the 2023 and appeared to be in the midst of a breakout campaign for much of the season. While his 2023 began with a four-run, 4 2/3 inning clunker against the Reds, Keller fired off nine consecutive starts with three earned runs or fewers allowed, including a complete-game shutout of the Rockies and a 13-strikeout game against the Orioles where he posted seven scoreless innings.

Keller’s strong start to the season earned him his first career All Star appearance, and he headed into the break with an impressive season in the works: across nineteen starts before the Midsummer Classic, Keller had a 3.31 ERA and nearly matching 3.32 FIP in 117 innings of work with a 26.7% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 7%. Unfortunately for Keller, his excellence wouldn’t continue into the second half. Over his final 13 starts, Keller mustered just a 5.59 ERA with a 4.52 FIP in 77 1/3 innings of work, with his strikeout rate during that time dipping to 23.8%.

The late-season struggles brought Keller’s final line for the 2023 season in line with his 2022 campaign, albeit with more innings: in 32 starts (194 1/3 innings), Keller posted a 4.21 ERA (105 ERA+) with a 3.80 FIP. Still, if Keller can replicate his strong start to the 2022 campaign next year, Pirates fans have plenty of reason for excitement about the 27-year-old righty’s future. Keller is arbitration-eligible this offseason and won’t be a free agent until the 2025-26 offseason.

Contreras, on the other hand, failed to build on a solid 2022 campaign where he posted a 3.79 ERA and 4.38 FIP in 95 innings of work. The 23-year-old righty struggled badly in 2023, with a brutal 6.59 ERA with a 5.19 FIP in 68 1/3 innings of work with a strikeout rate of just 18.2%. The youngster’s struggles resulted in him being demoted from the rotation in late May and spending a portion of the year at the Triple-A level, where he similarly struggled to a 4.96 ERA across 32 2/3 innings. Given Contreras’s pronounced struggles this season, it seems reasonable to expect the former top-100 prospect to enter camp next year on the outside looking in with regards to the club’s rotation plans, though given his youth and previous success he should still factor into the club’s pitching mix one way or another.

Jeff McNeil Diagnosed With Partially Torn UCL; Surgery Not Expected

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Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left elbow sprain earlier today, with infielder Danny Mendick replacing the 31-year-old on the active roster. McNeil subsequently revealed to reporters (including Tim Healey of Newsday) that the injury is actually a partially torn UCL. While UCL damage is always an ominous sign, both McNeil and manager Buck Showalter downplayed the seriousness of the issue. Per McNeil, the plan is for the veteran infielder to receive a platelet-rich plasma injection into his elbow to help address the tear. Surgery is not currently being considered, and Showalter told reporters today that he expects McNeil will be good to go for Spring Training next season.

With just four games remaining in the 2023 regular season and the Mets not in the postseason picture, McNeil’s placement on the IL brought an end to his 2023 campaign even before the severity of the issue came to light. As was the case for many Mets players this year, the 2023 campaign was a down year for McNeil. On the heels of a resurgent 2022 season where he lead the majors with a .326 batting average and posted a 141 wRC+ in 589 trips to the plate, McNeil slashed a relatively lackluster .270/.333/.378, exactly league average by measure of wRC+.

That league average slash line belies McNeil’s overall value as a versatile, everyday left-handed bat capable of playing all over the diamond, and McNeil figures to be an asset to the Mets next season even if his offense doesn’t rebound to its previous levels. Of course, the club was surely hoping for above average offensive production when they inked McNeil to a four-year, $50MM extension this past offseason. At least three years and $43.75MM remain on the contract, which bought out two of McNeil’s free agent years and added a $15.75MM club option for a third.

Looking ahead to 2024, McNeil should once again figure prominently in the Mets’ plans if he is able to return in time for Spring Training as expected. The club could offer extended looks to youngsters like Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Mark Vientos around the infield next year, given the club’s expectation of taking a step back in 2024 and primarily focusing on competing in 2025 and beyond. That being said, McNeil’s versatility should allow him to garner everyday at-bats between second base, third base, and the outfield corners even if the focus winds up being on developing young players next season.

As for Mendick, the 29-year-old utility player has received just 66 plate appearances in the big leagues this year, slashing a brutal .190/.227/.286 during that limited playing time. That being said, Mendick is just one year removed from a much stronger season with the White Sox during which he posted a solid .289/.343/.443 slash line across 106 trips to the plate. He figures to provide multi-positional depth off the bench for New York in the final games of the 2023 campaign.

NL West Notes: Rockies, Giants, Heyward

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As the Rockies shift their focus towards the offseason, Kyle Newman of The Denver Post writes that the club is looking to “make up ground” regarding its pitching development and analytics department. While Newman notes strides the club has made recently in those departments, the news isn’t entirely good.

On the pitching side of things, the club has been successful in looking to diversify its stockpile of arms in the minor leagues rather than simply focusing on sinker-slider pitches as they have previously. That being said, one prospect tells Newman that the changes have left the club’s planning for the pitchers they draft as unfocused. What’s more, the rash of injuries the Rockies suffered in the big league rotation this year (including Tommy John surgery for rotation stalwarts Antonio Senzatela and German Marquez) exposed the club’s lack of upper-level pitching depth, a situation that has forced the club to aggressively target pitching help not only in the last two drafts but also at the trade deadline this year.

Looking at the club’s analytics department, while the organization is in the midst of constructing what Newman describes as an analytics-specific building the Rockies call “the Lab”, Newman points out that most organizations around the major leagues already have their own version of such a building. That leaves the project as little more than playing catch-up relative to other organizations. Another example of the Rockies working to merely catch up to the competition is seen in their analytics staff. While prospects in the organization tell Newman that there’s a newfound emphasis on providing the players with digestible data thanks to each level of the organization sporting an analytics coordinator who travels with the team, the Rockies still employ just 11 full-time analysts total, tied for the second-fewest in the majors.

Meanwhile, in a Q&A with the organization’s blog, Rockies GM Bill Schmidt discussed the club’s future and cited the club’s aggressive acquisition of pitching talent as a reason for optimism regarding the club’s future. “We’re trying to make ourselves better and improve our talent base, and along the way, hopefully some of those guys are going to help us,” Schmidt said, “I think we’ve added 38 pitchers over the last two years through trades, the draft and international signings. You would like to think that even if a third of those guys hit, it’s going to help us.”

When asked about organization goals for the Rockies headed into the offseason, Schmidt kept things relatively vague, acknowledging that the club is “not where we need to be by any means” but simply pointing to a need to add depth to the big league roster rather than naming specific areas the club is looking to improve headed into the offseason.

More from the NL West…

  • In losing director of pitching Brian Bannister to the White Sox as Chicago reworks its front office, the Giants have suffered a hefty loss to their pitching infrastructure. Evan Webeck of The Mercury News recently wrote about Bannister’s departure, noting that pitchers in the organization such as righty John Brebbia and veteran starter Alex Cobb were shocked to see the club let Bannister go, calling him a “miracle worker.” Webeck notes that the club seemingly plans to fill Bannister’s role by giving increased responsibility to other members of the club’s pitching infrastructure, with pitching coach Andrew Bailey and assistant pitching coach J.P. Martinez both mentioned as key pitching minds who remain with the organization.
  • The Dodgers have utilized platoons aggressively to great success in their outfield this year, and perhaps no player embodies that success better than Jason Heyward. Heyward’s .270/.343/.481 slash line in 365 plate appearances this season is his best offensive performance since the shortened 2020 campaign, and his best since his rookie season back in 2010 over the course of a full season. That offensive surge is thanks to LA’s focus on optimizing his matchups in order to minimize his at-bats against left-handed pitchers. As a result, Heyward has taken just 27 plate appearances against lefties all season, allowing his career .268/.353/.435 slash line against righties to shine through. As noted by Jack Harris of the LA Times, the mutual appreciation between Heyward and the Dodgers organization lays the groundwork for a possible reunion in 2024 even as Heyward is slated to return to free agency come November. For Heyward’s part, he says it would be “an honor” to be asked to return to the team next season.

NL Notes: Contreras, Pirates, Santana

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Willson Contreras’ season came to an early end when the catcher was placed on the Cardinals’ 10-day injured list last week, though the good news is that Contreras’ bout of tendinitis in his left wrist doesn’t appear to need surgery, Cards manager Oliver Marmol told MLB.com and other media.  Contreras met with a hand specialist who advised that the wrist problem can be healed through a non-surgical recovery process, though since this specialist was a second opinion, that would imply that an initial diagnosis perhaps recommended some kind of procedure.

Nevertheless, Contreras will hopefully soon be healed up from both his wrist issue and other injuries, as Marmol mentioned that the catcher had also been playing through nagging soreness in his right hand and left wrist.  The health problems didn’t appear to hamper Contreras’ bat (.264/.358/.467 with 20 homers in 495 plate appearances), but they perhaps impacted his defense, as his framing and blocking numbers were both below average and he received a career-low -9 total as per the Defensive Runs Saved metric.

More from around the National League…

  • The Braves’ success is built on a foundation of long-term contracts with core players, and Yahoo Sports’ Hannah Keyser explores the team’s strategy in getting so many of its younger stars to lock into these deals.  “The sense around the industry is that the Braves put a particular emphasis on exclusively pursuing players whose agents are amenable to extensions,” Keyser writes, which includes some smaller agencies whose own fortunes would be boosted along with their client’s.  Geography is also a factor — Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, and Sean Murphy are all either from Atlanta or have some family ties to Georgia or the southeastern United States, so they were particularly open to the idea of staying close to home.  There is also the simple fact that a solid long-term core roster makes other players want to join such a roster, as players are naturally more interested in remaining part of “a good environment, a winning culture,” as Olson put it.  President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is praised for his rapport with the team, and the fact that he tends to first broach the topic of extensions personally with the players is perhaps a reason why so many deals get done (though Scott Boras is one agent who has concerns that such contact can hamper an agent’s ability to get the best possible contract for their client).
  • Several Pirates-related topics were discussed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey in a chat with readers, including the possibility of a reunion between Carlos Santana and the Bucs this winter.  Santana signed a one-year, $6.725MM free agent deal with Pittsburgh last winter, then hit .235/.321/.412 with 12 home runs over 393 PA before being moved to the Brewers at the trade deadline.  Santana has had roughly a league-average bat or worse over the last four seasons and he turns 38 in April, so his market will likely again be limited to fairly inexpensive one-year deals.  This could fit the Pirates’ need for a veteran bat who can play at least part-time at first base/DH, and Santana was a popular mentor figure in the Pittsburgh clubhouse.  Mackey opines that the Pirates should devote the bulk of their spending this offseason towards pitching, with Santana perhaps representing a familiar, solid, and less-expensive answer for the Bucs’ first base need.

Blue Jays’ Jay Jackson Will Be A Free Agent This Winter

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Due to particular language in the MLB contract he signed with the Blue Jays prior to Opening Day, Jay Jackson will be a free agent this winter despite lacking the regulation six years of big league service time, Jays Journal’s Eric Treuden writes.  This isn’t the first time Jackson has pursued this route, as Treuden notes that Jackson had similar free agent language written into prior contracts with the Brewers and Giants over the last four years.

Players with between three years and six years of service time are usually under team control, via salary arbitration.  However, this normal structure is an imperfect fit for players like Jackson, who made his MLB debut at a relatively late age (27) and who have bounced around to several different teams in both North America and Japan.  Though 2023 is Jackson’s age-35 season and he has previously pitched in parts of four MLB campaigns from 2015-22, he still only had one year and 105 days of official service time heading into Opening Day.  Rather than tie himself to the Blue Jays organization for years to come, Jackson and his representatives arranged a re-entry into the free agent market at the completion of his one-year deal with Toronto.

Over 27 2/3 innings with the Jays, Jackson has looked quite sharp in posting a 2.28 ERA over 27 2/3 innings, as well as a 22.9% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate.  This performance is all the more impressive considering how Jackson’s focus has been on matters far more important than baseball, as Jackson and his fiancee have been caring for a newborn who came 15 weeks premature.  As a result, Jackson has spent time on the family emergency list, and also spend numerous off-days traveling to Utah to be his family.

His son’s health situation is sure to factor into Jackson’s next contractual decision, as it stands to reason that he might prefer to join a team closer to home.  That said, Jackson signed with the Blue Jays because he prioritized pitching for a contender, and by all accounts the club has enjoyed Jackson’s contributions both on the field and in the clubhouse, so the Jays figure to have some interest in offering Jackson a new deal.

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