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Big Hype Prospects: Abbott, Brown, Encarnacion-Strand, Povich, Sheehan

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With so many clubs needing to plunge into the minors for pitching reinforcements, let’s put more attention on this next wave of arms.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Andrew Abbott, 24, SP, CIN (AAA)
31.1 IP, 13.21 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 3.16 ERA

Abbott walked all over the Southern League earlier this season, posting a 1.15 ERA with 20.68 K/9 and 1.72 BB/9 in three starts. The Reds got him out of there in a hurry – possibly because the pre-tacked ball used in that league was obscuring aspects of his development. Since arriving in Triple-A, Abbott has reverted to a good-not-great trajectory and there’s still risk he’ll eventually land in the bullpen. From a stuff perspective, he has a starter’s repertoire. Like most young pitchers, Abbott’s command can be inconsistent and mostly draws negative comments. There’s reason for concern about home run prevention, especially at Great American Ball Park.

Ben Brown, 23, SP, CHC (AAA)
24 IP, 13.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.75 ERA

Brown was acquired from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade. Like Abbott, Brown dominated the Southen League (20 IP, 0.45 ERA) en route to a quick promotion. He’s continued to miss bats, albeit with a couple red flags. Per a statistical source, hitters have averaged a 91.3-mph exit velocity against Brown in Triple-A. It’s a small sample concern for now. Inconsistencies with his command remain on display, and the relief risk is palpable. While his fastball, slider, and curve are all viewed as above-average offerings, the lack of command and changeup are traits of pitchers who eventually land in the bullpen. We’ve seen plenty of guys succeed with non-traditional repertoires lately, but they usually rely on some sort of unicorn trait. I’m unaware of Brown fitting this mold.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
146 PA, 13 HR, .346/.384/.721

Prospects like CES tend to create a lot of arguments among the general public. He was one of the top minor league performers in 2022, and he’s repeating the effort this season. However, poor plate discipline and a hefty swinging-strike rate introduce considerable risk. There’s also doubt about his ability to stick at third base. Cincinnati has already conceded this by using him 17 games at first, seven at DH, and seven at third. Few first basemen are this ill-disciplined. Of qualified first basemen, only Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, and Ryan Mountcastle have walk rates below 6.0 percent. Drury and Urshela aren’t really first basemen. On the other hand, CES punishes baseballs when he connects, averaging 92.2-mph on contact. If he can mount any sort of resistance to the inevitable bevy of breaking balls out of the zone, he could develop into a legitimate 40-homer threat.

Cade Povich, 23, SP, BAL (AA)
40 IP, 13.73 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 4.50 ERA

Acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade, Povich probably deserves inclusion in the latter portion of Top 100 lists. The southpaw doesn’t have any overwhelming traits, but the total package resembles many adequate left-handers around the league. Povich’s basic stats suggest cause for both optimism and skepticism. His 2.20 FIP and 2.47 xFIP are a sight better than his 4.50 ERA – largely due to a .356 BABIP and 62.2 percent strand rate. In the minors, such stats can be more than the “luck” we generally attribute them to in the Majors, and Povich also had a poor strand rate in 2022. It could indicate issues pitching out of the stretch. I’ve reached out to a couple contacts for their thoughts.

Worth mentioning, the Eastern League is not using the pretacked ball.

Emmet Sheehan, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
44 IP, 15.55 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.64 ERA

The Texas League also isn’t using the pretacked ball. Sheehan started to generate hype late last season, culminating in a successful stint in the Arizona Fall League. Sheehan is overwhelming the Double-A competition as evidenced by a 20.1 percent swinging strike rate, .176 BABIP, and 97% strand rate. Such figures indicate luck, but they also speak of an ability to miss bats with impunity. The star of the show is a double-plus changeup. A prospect watcher tipped me off last season about changeup artists – they tend to overperform in the minors. At the time, we were discussing Grayson Rodriguez. Like the other pitchers we’ve covered today, Sheehan’s command sparks comments about a future in the bullpen. Scouts also seem to dislike his mechanics – he tends to fall off hard to the first base line. I tend to ignore such comments. Goofy mechanics may (or may not) increase injury risk, but they also lead to unusual looks for hitters.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain, who we discussed in this section last week, has rushed out to a heady .380/.456/.600 performance in 57 Major League plate appearances. Red flags include a .531 BABIP, modest exit velocities, and 28.1 percent strikeout rate. However, McLain is showing power, advanced plate discipline, and a high rate of swinging contact (7.3 percent SwStr%).

Zach Dezenzo, HOU (23): Although not yet on the radar for top prospect status, Dezenzo is quickly accelerating through the Astros system as a third baseman. A scout brought him to my attention a month ago. He’s a low-angle, line-drive machine, leading to high BABIPs. There’s considerable swing-and-miss in his game, introducing risk of stalling in the upper minors. Dezenzo was recently promoted to Double-A.

Johan Rojas, PHI (22): For fans of Esteury Ruiz, Rojas basically has a better version of a similar profile. He doesn’t visually look like Alfonso Soriano the way Ruiz does, but you can easily discern the athletic ability. Unlike Ruiz, he’s already regarded as a plus center fielder. Already on the 40-man roster, Rojas seems likely to ascend to Triple-A in the coming weeks.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

The Opener: Bader, Mullins, MLBTR Chat

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With over a third of the 2023 regular season in the books, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Bader to undergo MRI:

Yankees center fielder Harrison Bader, who left yesterday’s game with right hamstring tightness, is set to undergo an MRI today to determine the severity of the issue. Manager Aaron Boone suggested to reporters (including Erik Boland of Newsday) that Bader may be able to avoid an IL stint, though one can’t be ruled out until further testing is done. Bader missed the first month of the season with an oblique strain.

Bader has combined typically stellar center field defense with a .267/.295/.511 batting line and six home runs, placing him alongside Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton (on the IL with a hamstring injury of his own) as one of the team’s most productive hitters. Should Bader miss time, outfielder Franchy Cordero and infielder Oswald Peraza are the top minor league hitters currently on the 40-man roster. Judge, Isiah-Kiner Falefa and Greg Allen would be among the options to step into Bader’s spot in center field.

2. How will Mullins’ injury impact Baltimore?

Bader wasn’t the only AL East center fielder to suffer a concerning injury yesterday. Orioles star Cedric Mullins suffered a strain to his right abductor/groin area during yesterday’s loss to the Guardians. Mullins underwent testing last night to determine the severity of the injury, and details should be made available before this evening’s game.

In addition to strong defense in center, Mullins has been a key contributor (alongside Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, and Adley Rutschman) to the offensive core that has lifted Baltimore to a 34-20 record that leaves them with a two-game lead for the top AL Wild Card spot. Should Mullins miss significant time, the club could shift Adam Frazier from second base to the outfield, where he has 1,264 2/3 innings of experience across seven seasons, until Colton Cowser or Kyle Stowers is ready to return from injuries of their own. Frazier has ample experience in left field, and left fielder Austin Hays has played plenty of center field in his career. Alternatively, the Orioles could utilize the open spot on their 40-man roster to select the contract of a stopgap option such as Daz Cameron or Ben DeLuzio.

3. MLBTR Chat Today:

With Memorial Day now in the rearview mirror, the storylines of the 2023 season are beginning to crystalize as we head into the summer. If the events of the season so far have spurred any questions in your mind about your favorite team or the league as a whole, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Cedric Mullins Leaves Game Due To Right Abductor/Groin Injury

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Cedric Mullins left today’s game with what Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters was a strain in the outfielder’s right abductor/groin area.  Mullins suffered the injury in the eighth inning of the 5-0 loss to the Guardians, as the center fielder was trying to beat out a grounder to first base.

More will be known about Mullins’ condition after he undergoes testing, but it certainly looks like he’ll be headed to the 10-day injured list, and the only hope is that his strain is of the relatively mild variety.  In the interim, the Orioles will have to make do without their team leader in fWAR (1.8), and a player who has been a somewhat underrated all-around contributor since the start of the 2021 campaign.

Over 224 plate appearances this season, Mullins has hit .263/.356/.479 with eight homers and 13 steals (in 15 chances).  That translates to a 133 wRC+, which is only slightly behind Mullins’ career-best 136 wRC+ mark over 675 PA in 2021.  It’s worth noting that Mullins’ .362 wOBA far outpaces his .318 wOBA this year because his hard-contact numbers are below average, but (ironically, given the circumstances of today’s injury) Mullins’ excellent speed has often allowed him to turn that soft contact into base hits.  The outfielder’s strikeout and rate walks are well above average, and Mullins’ 11.8% walk rate is easily his career best, and a nice improvement for a player who has sometimes struggled to consistently get on base.

Offense is only part of the story for Mullins, who is also a standout defender in center field.  The Outs Above Average metric has always loved his glovework, and while the UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics are a bit more mixed over the years, he got unanimously positive grades across the board for his center field work in 2022.

Replacing Mullins in the event of a longer-term injury will be very difficult for the Orioles, but the team has enough outfield options to get by if he is only sidelined for a couple or weeks.  Ryan McKenna and Austin Hays are the only other players besides Mullins to see any action in Baltimore’s center field since the start of the 2021 season, and since Hays is already getting regular action in left field, so the O’s might just go with a platoon of McKenna and Terrin Vavra up the middle.

Baltimore has top outfield prospects Colton Cowser and Kyle Stowers down at Triple-A, though both are themselves currently sidelined with injuries.  The Orioles could turn to their prospect depth in another fashion, as The Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka suggests Joey Ortiz could be recalled, which shifts Adam Frazier into the outfield mix with Hays, McKenna, and Vavra.  Perhaps the simplest move would be for the Orioles to select the contract of Daz Cameron from Triple-A, as the former first-rounder is hitting well at Triple-A in his first season in the organization.

West Notes: Lamet, Munoz, Hudson, Rendon, Rodriguez

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The Rockies plan to activate Dinelson Lamet from the 15-day injured list to start their Wednesday game with the Diamondbacks, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports (Twitter link).  Reports surfaced last week that Limet was being considered for a return to starting pitching, and with the Rockies increasingly desperate for rotation help, Limet will get a look as a starter for the first time since the 2021 season when he was still a member of the Padres.  Karl Kauffmann has already been optioned to Triple-A, creating space for Lamet on the active roster.  Lower back tightness has kept Lamet out of action for almost all of May, and he struggled to a 12.66 ERA over 10 2/3 relief innings this season prior to his injury.

Some more items from both the NL and AL West…

  • Andres Munoz will start a Triple-A rehab assignment on Tuesday, as the Mariners reliever is on the way back from a deltoid strain that has sidelined him since April 8.  Thought to be a minor injury at the time, Munoz was then bothered by a sore shoulder that required a PRP injection, extending his time on the IL to just shy of two months.  Munoz only pitched 3 1/3 innings over four appearances before heading to the injured list, but assuming everything goes as planned, he’ll be back in the Seattle bullpen and looking to follow up his outstanding 2022 season.
  • Dodgers reliever Daniel Hudson told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that he will throw a bullpen on Tuesday.  It’s a positive step for Hudson, who hasn’t pitched since tearing his left UCL last June.  During the last update on Hudson two weeks ago from Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, the veteran righty was throwing but without any specific plans for a rehab assignment due to some continued discomfort in his knee.  Hudson said today that he’d received a cortisone injection in his knee, and was hoping that the bullpen session would be the first step towards a “ramp up” of his recovery.
  • Angels GM Perry Minasian provided some news on some injured Halos players to the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher and other reporters, though neither Anthony Rendon or Chris Rodriguez seems close to a return.  Rendon has been taking part in some light baseball activities, but even with more than two weeks passed since Rendon hit the 10-day IL due to a groin strain, Minasian wasn’t sure of a timeline for when Rendon might return or take on a fuller rehab process.  Rodriguez underwent shoulder surgery in November 2021 and didn’t pitch at all in 2022, then had a setback in early April after starting the season on the 15-day IL.  It doesn’t appear as though there was any further damage to Rodriguez’s shoulder, as Minasian said the team has “done what we need to do medically” to assess the situation, and Rodriguez is throwing again but not off a mound.

Cardinals Notes: Mozeliak, O’Neill, Carlson, Nootbaar

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The Cardinals’s record dropped to 24-32 after today’s loss to the Royals, but unsurprisingly, St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak isn’t giving up on the season as the calendar approaches June.  In an interview with Jim Hayes of Bally Sports (video link) today, Mozeliak said his team is preparing to make additions at the trade deadline, and “I don’t anticipate us [selling] at all.  I think…where our division is headed, it’s going to remain very competitive.  So really we’re going to be looking at ways that can really help this club.”

Despite their lackluster record, the Cards are still only 5.5 games out of first place in the NL Central, with the Brewers holding the top spot with a modest 28-25 record.  Also, the National League as a whole is still very compact, so the Cardinals are only five games out of a wild card berth.

It’s therefore far too early for a team with World Series aspirations like the Cardinals to reload for 2024, especially considering that St. Louis has made a habit of second-half surges in recent years.  It’s possible the Cards have already bounced back in some fashion from their brutal start, as St. Louis is 14-8 in its last 22 games and can clinch a winning record in May with a victory over the Royals on Tuesday.

Mozeliak also provided an update of sorts on Tyler O’Neill, though not positive news for a player who has already been out since May 5 due to a lower back strain.  O’Neill is still “feeling discomfort” in his back, so Mozeliak noted that “until he’s cleared to do more baseball activity, it’s hard to push him through that.”  As a result, Mozeliak said “we’re doing to do a little bit of a pause” on O’Neill’s rehab work, and “do a few additional tests, and then decide what those next steps look like.”

Dylan Carlson has been sidelined with an ankle injury for the last two weeks but Mozeliak mentioned he could begin a minor league rehab assignment as early as this week.  That would provide some help for a Cardinals outfield that looks like it’ll be missing O’Neill for the foreseeable future, and another injury concern emerged today when Lars Nootbaar left the game due to back spasms.

In the second inning, Nootbaar collided with the wall while making a catch, leaving the outfielder visibly sore.  Nootbaar tried to stay in the game but in the next inning, he dropped to his knees while in pursuit of a Nick Pratto fly ball, and had to be removed.  In postgame interviews with Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other reporters, Nootbaar didn’t seem too worried about the injury, but it would seem likely that the Cardinals will keep him out of at least tomorrow’s lineup for precautionary reasons.  The Cards have a rare two-day schedule break on May 31 and June 1, so if Nootbaar could get three full days off to heal up before a potential return to action.

Angels Outright Reyes Moronta

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TODAY: Moronta has been outrighted to Triple-A, according to MLB.com’s transactions page.  It isn’t yet known if Moronta has accepted the assignment or elected free agency.

MAY 26: The Angels announced Friday that righty Reyes Moronta has been designated for assignment. His spot on the 40-man and active roster will go to pitching prospect Sam Bachman, whose contract has been selected — as was previously reported.

Moronta, 30, inked a minor league deal with the Halos on May 11 and was selected to the big league roster just ten days later. He appeared in two games and pitched 1 1/3 innings, allowing a run on four hits and three walks with two strikeouts. With the Angels aggressively seeking solutions to balance out a top-heavy bullpen, his spot will go to Bachman, whom the Angels selected with the ninth overall pick in the 2021 draft.

Back in 2017-19, Moronta was a high-quality setup man for the Giants, pitching to a 2.66 ERA with a 29.8% strikeout rate across 128 1/3 innings. Command was an issue, which was easy to see with one glance at a 13.6% walk rate, but Moronta’s 97.1 mph heater and a plus, low-80s slider helped him to limit the damage from those free passes.

Shoulder surgery ended Moronta’s 2019 season a few weeks early and wiped out nearly all of his 2020-21 seasons, however. He returned to toss four innings with the Giants in 2021, allowing just one run in that time but also sporting a fastball that clocked it at an average of 94.3 mph — a nearly three mile-per-hour drop. The Giants removed him from the 40-man roster in September, and Moronta cleared outright waivers and subsequently elected free agency at season’s end.

The Dodgers signed Moronta to a minor league deal once the 2021-22 lockout was lifted, and less than three weeks into the season he’d made it up to their big league bullpen. He spent the next couple months as an up-and-down arm in L.A. before ultimately being designated for assignment and claimed off waivers by the D-backs. Overall, his 2022 campaign ended with 37 2/3 frames of 4.30 ERA ball, a 23.6% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate.

Moronta’s 95.2 mph heater this year lined up with his 95.3 mph average in 2022, but both sit about two miles per hour shy of his peak. The Angels will have a week to trade him, attempt to pass him through outright waivers or release him. Moronta has enough big league service time to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, even if he goes unclaimed on waivers.

Padres Claim Gary Sanchez Off Waivers From Mets

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The Padres have acquired catcher Gary Sanchez, according to reporter Miriam Luz (Twitter link).  Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune adds that Sanchez was picked up on a waiver claim, after the backstop was designated for assignment by the Mets last week.

Today’s waiver claim continues a whirlwind of movement for Sanchez, who went through the entire offseason without landing a free agent deal but will now be joining his third different organization in less than two months.  Sanchez inked a minor league contract with the Giants just after Opening Day, but then exercised his opt-out clause in early May when San Francisco didn’t add him to its active roster.  Sanchez quickly landed with the Mets on another minors deal that ended up locking in a prorated $1.5MM guarantee for the catcher when the Amazins selected him to their 26-man roster just before his next opt-out date on May 19.

However, Sanchez’s time in Queens was brief, as he appeared in only three games before the Mets DFA’ed him.  As per the waiver claim, San Diego is now responsible for the roughly $1.1MM owed to Sanchez in remaining salary, and it was a price the Padres felt was worthwhile given the team’s catching woes.

Heading into today’s action, the Padres ranked 26th of 30 teams in catcher bWAR, as San Diego’s backstop had combined for a sub-replacement level -0.2 total.  Austin Nola suffered a fractured nose late in Spring Training, which may have contributed to his dismal .131/.252/.182 slash line over 118 plate appearances this season.  Luis Campusano only made 22 trips to the plate before hitting the injured list with a thumb injury that required surgery, so he won’t be a factor until around the middle of July.  Rookie Brett Sullivan hasn’t hit much in his first 21 MLB games.

The Padres inked Kevin Plawecki to a minor league deal nine days ago, and now they’ve further bolstered their catching depth with Sanchez.  Considering how little the Padres have gotten from the catcher position, it can be argued that Sanchez almost has to be some level of upgrade, as even the subpar .205/.282/.377 slash line he posted over 471 PA with the Twins in 2022 would be a step up for San Diego.  It would seem like Sanchez will get at least six weeks to show the Padres what he can do, as the team might again re-evaluate its catching position when Campusano gets back, and San Diego also figures to check out more catching options prior to the trade deadline.

Once perhaps baseball’s best-hitting catcher in his prime years with the Yankees, Sanchez has hit only .195/.287/.392 in 1096 PA since the start of the 2020 season, translating to an 89 wRC+.  His oft-criticized defensive issues (not to mention the hitting dropoff) led to an increasing lack of playing time with the Yankees, and ultimately led to New York moving him to the Twins as part of their five-player blockbuster trade in March 2022.  While Sanchez’s glovework seemed to improve a bit in Minnesota, the Twins still let him walk in free agency, and the uncertainty surrounding Sanchez led to his long winter in free agency.  The Brewers and Angels were two of the teams linked to his market before the Giants finally made the signing.

Submit Your Questions For The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

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Each week on the MLB Trade Rumors podcast we’ll answer questions submitted by our readers. With the next episode due Wednesday morning, we’re looking for MLBTR readers to submit their questions and we’ll pick three to answer.

If there’s anything you’d like to get our thoughts on then please send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com

We look forward to hearing from you!

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

White Sox Place Jimmy Lambert On 15-Day Injured List

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White Sox GM Rick Hahn told reporters (including The Athletic’s James Fegan) that right-hander Jimmy Lambert has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to right ankle inflammation.  Lambert’s IL placement is retroactive to May 28, and it opens a roster space for Liam Hendriks, who is making his return from the 15-day IL today.

The injury adds to what has already been a tough year for Lambert, who has a 5.91 ERA over 21 1/3 innings.  Lambert’s 23.8% strikeout rate is slightly above the league average, but he has been allowing a lot of hard contact and heavy damage — his 15.9% barrel rate is among the lowest in baseball, and Lambert has given up six homers over his 21 1/3 frames.  A 12.9% walk rate also hasn’t helped Lambert’s cause.

Now in his fourth MLB season, Lambert seemed to be turning a corner after the White Sox made him a full-time reliever in 2022, as he delivered a 3.26 ERA over 47 innings.  While walks were still an issue for Lambert last season, he did a much better job of keeping the ball in the park, with only four homers allowed.

Lambert is one of several White Sox relievers who have struggled this year, as only the woeful A’s have a higher bullpen ERA than the 5.17 number posted by Chicago’s relief corps.  Beyond the obvious emotional impact of Hendriks’ return, the three-time All-Star should provide some instant help to the bullpen.  For more on Hendriks’ cancer diagnosis and recovery over the last five months, ESPN’s Jeff Passan detailed Hendriks’ story in a feature piece earlier today.

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