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Cardinals Expect To Add Bullpen Help Via Free Agency

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The Cardinals have made no secret of their desire to add to the bullpen. Having accomplished their goal of bringing in three starting pitchers, St. Louis is prioritizing the relief corps.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested this evening the organization is likelier to add to the bullpen via free agency than in trade (relayed by Katie Woo of the Athletic). That’s a little surprising considering the Cards have been open about their willingness to trade a position player — Mozeliak candidly admitted they’re fielding offers on Tyler O’Neill yesterday — for pitching help.

Of course, noting that a free agent acquisition is more probable than a trade doesn’t close the latter avenue completely. The front office is surely exploring both paths. On the free agent front, reports have loosely linked St. Louis to Phil Maton, NPB closer Yuki Matsui and old friend Jordan Hicks.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports (on X) that the Cards have also discussed KBO pitcher Woo Suk Go. The LG Twins have made Go available to MLB teams via the posting system. A 25-year-old righty, Go turned in a 3.68 ERA over 44 innings this past season. He struck out an excellent 31.1% of opposing hitters but walked an elevated 11.8% of batters faced.

Go has until January 3 to decide whether to sign with a major league club or stay in South Korea. He’s not expected to command the same level of contract as either Maton or Matsui (and certainly won’t approach what it would cost to reunite with Hicks). The Cardinals project for a payroll in the $180MM range, according to Roster Resource. That’s a little above this year’s approximate $177MM Opening Day mark.

Mozeliak has previously suggested the Cards would keep their payroll steady, so they could be fairly close to their budgetary limit. The front office head unsurprisingly confirmed last night that the Cards were not going to top the $237MM luxury tax threshold (via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). Roster Resource projects the franchise’s CBT number around $208MM, a fair bit south of the base tax tier.

Pirates Planning To Increase Payroll

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Never known for their big spending, the Pirates are planning some level of a payroll increase in 2024, GM Ben Cherington told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey and other reporters.  “I’d anticipate us ending up above where we landed last year,” Cherington said.  “Generally speaking, we expect that as we get better, the payroll will continue to climb with us.  To some extent, it’s motivation for us is if we can actually push that as we get better.”

This isn’t different from statements Cherington has made in the past about the Bucs’ spending, and in some sense, there’s really nowhere to go but up for a team that has traditionally been at or near the back of the pack in payroll even during its last playoff seasons (2013-15).  According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Pirates’ Opening Day payroll hasn’t ranked higher than 27th in the league in any of the last six seasons, with last year’s Opening Day number sitting at just under $73.28MM.

That 2023 payroll figure represented a notable jump from the Pirates’ $55.76MM figure at the start of the 2022 season, which might provide some hint about what kind of increase we might be able to expect this winter.  A similar-sized bump would bring the Bucs into a payroll range of around $91MM, and since the 2024 payroll ledger sits at roughly $53MM at the moment, Cherington and company could have a comparably large amount of money to work with as they look for roster upgrades.

Expecting quite such a payroll increase is far from a lock, of course, and the Pirates are one of many teams around baseball whose revenues are impacted by TV broadcasting uncertainties.  Mackey recently explored the Pirates’ situation, as the team seems to have the option of either letting MLB handle broadcast rights, or airing games on SportsNet Pittsburgh, the recently-rebranded channel that has been the Pirates’ cable TV home for years.

After losing 201 games in 2021-22, Pittsburgh’s 76-86 record represented a solid step forward in the team’s rebuilding process.  The team’s extension with Bryan Reynolds in April was another important turning point, as both the biggest contract in franchise history and a clear sign that the Pirates want to start turning towards contending.  Expecting the Bucs to make that leap in 2024 is perhaps a tall order, yet stranger things have happened, and there might be some particular opportunity within an unsettled NL Central.

It is hard to imagine this current Pirates pitching staff carrying a contender, however, and it seems clear that the bulk of whatever dollars Pittsburgh has available this winter will be focused on rotation help.  Given the ever-rising cost of pitching and the Pirates’ multiple needs in the staff, it is safe to assume that the team will go after multiple mid-tier starters rather than splurge on a Jordan Montgomery-esque ace at the very top of the market.  Reports surfaced earlier today that Jack Flaherty was a target of interest for the Pirates, with the former Cardinals standout looking for a one-year deal as he tries to rebound from a few underwhelming and injury-plagued seasons.

White Sox, Erick Fedde Agree To Two-Year Contract

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The White Sox are in agreement with right-hander Erick Fedde on a two-year, $15MM contract, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). The deal is pending a physical. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported last night that Fedde, a client of the Boras Corporation, was nearing a two-year pact and named the White Sox and Mets as finalists.

Fedde returns to the majors after one season in South Korea. He’d signed a one-year, $1MM pact with the KBO’s NC Dinos last December. A few weeks earlier, Fedde had been non-tendered by the Nationals, with whom he’d spent his entire pro career up to that point. Within 12 months, he has dramatically raised his profile.

The 30-year-old righty turned in an excellent season for the Dinos. He pitched to a 2.00 ERA in 180 1/3 innings covering 30 starts. He struck out an excellent 29.5% of batters faced while walking under 5% of opposing hitters. As a result of that dominant showing, he was named the KBO’s Most Valuable Player.

Before his move to Korea, Fedde had a fairly nondescript run in Washington. The 6’4″ hurler was a first round draft choice in 2014. He received some Top 100 prospect attention as a potentially quick-moving college starter. Fedde got to the majors midway through the 2017 season but didn’t solidify himself in the rotation for a few years. He spent time on the injured list with shoulder inflammation during the 2018 campaign and bounced between the nation’s capital and Triple-A in ’19.

Fedde carved out a spot in the Nats rotation during the shortened 2020 campaign. He’d hold that role for the next three seasons, combining to log 310 2/3 innings over 67 appearances. The results weren’t great, as he posted a 5.42 ERA with a middling 18.1% strikeout rate. Rather than meet a projected $3.6MM arbitration salary last offseason, Washington moved on.

While surely a tough pill to swallow at the time, Fedde has come out ahead following the non-tender. This past August, he told the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty that he’d developed more horizontal action on his slider and tweaked the grip on his changeup as part of an overhauled approach in the pitching lab.

Between the repertoire adjustments and the dominance in a hitter-friendly KBO, Fedde secured the largest guarantee for a former affiliated pitcher returning from Korea. Each of Josh Lindblom, Merrill Kelly and Chris Flexen landed multi-year guarantees. Fedde is the first to cross the $10MM threshold, doing so rather handily.

The $7.5MM average annual value is a strong deal for the righty, although it could still turn out to be solid value for the Sox if Fedde can turn in league average results in the majors. Chicago is in desperate need of starting pitching. Dylan Cease had been the only pitcher on the roster who was clearly assured of a rotation spot and he’s widely expected to be traded. Fedde is almost certain to get a spot in the starting five, while Michael Kopech and trade pickup Michael Soroka have a decent chance at rotation roles. Jared Shuster, Jesse Scholtens and Touki Toussaint are also in the mix.

That’s still a lackluster group, particularly if the Sox wind up moving Cease. First-year general manager Chris Getz and his front office are likely to continue searching for starting pitching. The specific breakdown of Fedde’s contract has yet to be reported. If it’s distributed evenly, a $7.5MM salary would bring the Sox’s projected payroll (courtesy of Roster Resource) around $144MM. Getz has already suggested they’re not planning to approach their franchise-record spending mark, which topped $193MM, but they’re still more than $35MM shy of this year’s approximate $181MM Opening Day figure.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Royals Interested In Lucas Giolito

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Free agent right-hander Lucas Giolito is getting a lot of attention, with Jon Morosi of MLB.com reporting that the Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Royals are interested in him. The interest from the Dodgers was already reported but the four other clubs are new mentions.

Giolito, 29, is one of the hardest free agents to value. From 2019 to 2021, he made 72 starts and tossed 427 2/3 innings with a 3.47 earned run average. He struck out 30.7% of batters faced in that time while walking just 8%. His 11.3 wins above replacement in that stretch, per FanGraphs, was seventh among all pitchers in the league.

Things took a bit of a downturn in 2022, at least in terms of results. His ERA jumped to 4.90 and his strikeouts dropped a bit, though his 25.4% rate was still above league average. His .340 batting average on balls in play that year stands out as a clear outlier, as he’s never had that figure finish higher than .274 in any other season. His 4.06 FIP and 3.79 SIERA both suggested he was actually more in line with his previous track record than the ERA would indicate.

He seemed to be back on track in the first half of 2023, making 21 starts for the White Sox with a 3.79 ERA. But things went downhill for him after he was traded to the Angels prior to the deadline. He took the ball six times for the Halos, posting an ERA of 6.89 in those. As that club fell out of contention, he was put on waivers and claimed by the Guardians. Six more starts with that club yielded an even worse ERA of 7.04. His walk rate jumped to 10.8% in the 12 starts after being traded and he also allowed 20 home runs in just 63 1/3 innings.

That poor stretch of play represents such a small sample in a career that now includes over 1,000 big leagues innings, but was unfortunately timed right before his first trip to free agency. MLBTR predicted he would get a two-year, $44MM with an opt-out that lets him potentially return to free agency with a stronger platform.

Each of the four clubs now connected to him are sensible fits since they each are known to need pitching. The Diamondbacks have Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in two rotation spots with Brandon Pfaadt likely to be somewhere behind them, but there’s not much certainty beyond that. General manager Mike Hazen has been open about the club’s desire to upgrade the rotation this offseason.

The Mets have added Luis Severino to a rotation that also features Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana, but there are question marks for the back end and even Severino is no guarantee after his poor 2023 campaign.

The Red Sox have plenty of options but none of them concrete. Chris Sale should be in one spot but he hasn’t reached 105 innings pitched in a season since 2019 due to various injuries. Brayan Bello had a decent 2023 season overall but faded later in the year with a 5.49 ERA in the second half. Each of Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford have oscillated between the rotation and bullpen without permanently cementing a spot. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said at the Winter Meetings that the club would be “aggressive” in pursuing upgrades.

The Royals have plenty of questions in their rotation. Cole Ragans had a strong finish after coming over in the Aroldis Chapman trade but Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles each had disappointing seasons. General manager J.J. Picollo said this week that the club has about $30MM to spend and adding a starter is one thing on their to-do list. Signing someone like Giolito would likely eat up a decent chunk of that budget and leave little for bullpen upgrades, but it’s at least feasible that they could dedicate more of their resources to the rotation.

Astros Not Planning To Trade Jake Meyers

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Chatting with reporters from the Winter Meetings, Astros general manager Dana Brown indicated this evening that the team is planning to give Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick regular outfield run (relayed by Ari Alexander of KPRC 2). Meyers will get the first shot at holding down the center field job, while McCormick is expected to play primarily in left field.

It’s a more notable announcement with regard to Meyers. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggested a couple weeks ago that the Astros were discussing the 27-year-old in trade talks. Brown downplayed that possibility, acknowledging that while the club received some calls on Meyers, they have no interest in moving him.

Entering the season with Meyers atop the center field depth chart is a fairly risky play for a team that intends to compete for a division title. The Nebraska product hasn’t provided much offensively over parts of three big league campaigns. He’s a career .235/.296/.379 hitter. Meyers ran a similar .227/.296/.382 batting line in a personal-high 347 plate appearances last season. He hit 10 homers but posted worse than average walk (7.6%) and strikeout (25.8%) rates.

While Meyers hasn’t been much of a factor with the bat, he has played very well on the other side of the ball. Public metrics grade him as a plus defender in center field. In just under 1500 career innings at the outfield’s most demanding position, he has rated 12 to 18 runs better than average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast.

The Astros are evidently sufficiently pleased with Meyers’ glove to pass on whatever trade overtures they’ve received. That moves McCormick to left field on most days, although Brown suggested McCormick would still see some work up the middle as needed. While the 28-year-old has yet to tally 500 plate appearances in any MLB season, he has been consistently excellent when plugged into the lineup. McCormick posted a .273/.353/.489 slash with 22 homers over 457 plate appearances a season ago.

Kyle Tucker is entrenched in right field. It seems the Astros are content with a McCormick, Meyers, Tucker outfield alignment on most days, with Yordan Alvarez rotating between left field and designated hitter. Mauricio Dubón is on hand as a utility option who can cover center field off the bench. That aligns with prior comments from Brown, who has consistently suggested he doesn’t view the outfield as a significant offseason priority.

Jed Hoyer Denies Cubs Are Out On Shohei Ohtani

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Earlier today, a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today said that the Cubs were falling out of the bidding for Shohei Ohtani, saying that their “optimism of landing Ohtani has now significantly waned.” However, the club’s president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer denied that framing at the Winter Meetings. “I don’t know where that came from,” Hoyer said to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. “There’s no nothing to report whatsoever.”

The Ohtani sweepstakes have been notably unusual since he and his camp reportedly prefer a shroud of secrecy over the proceedings. Reporting appears to indicate that the field is down to five clubs: The Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs and Giants. Ohtani is “believed” to have met with the Jays recently and there were “indications” of a meeting with the Giants prior to that. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts decided not to play the cloak-and-dagger games, straight up admitting that his club recently met with Ohtani.

Overall, information has been tougher to come by than a typical free agency, but Hoyer felt compelled to address today’s reporting. He said they have not been given a “status check” from Ohtani’s reps but wouldn’t discuss the club’s interest beyond that. Earlier today, manager Craig Counsell was asked about having meetings with Ohtani and replied “I have not,” per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. When asked if the front office had met with Ohtani, he repeated his “I have not” response.

The Cubs currently have a payroll of $178MM, per Roster Resource. That’s $25MM shy of their franchise high payroll of $203MM, per the figures at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Ohtani is expected to require a contract with an average annual value somewhere in the $40-50MM range, but it stands to reason the Cubs would probably have some willingness to go beyond previous spending levels for such a uniquely talented player as Ohtani. Beyond his on-field talents, he is a big international star who should be able to provide his next club with extra revenue via increased ratings, merchandise sales and ticket sales.

One club that seems to be in the opposite position is Atlanta. It was reported recently by Jon Morosi of MLB.com that the club was “actively involved” in the Ohtani bidding. But president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos seemed to contradict that in speaking to the media today. When asked about the club’s interest in Ohtani, he said the only position player they’ve pursued this offseason is Jarred Kelenic, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. They acquired Kelenic earlier this week and Anthopoulos says they are now happy with the lineup and group of position players.

Ohtani would upgrade any team in the world but it’s unclear where his priorities lie. He could go for the largest guarantee or a contract with multiple opt-outs, or perhaps something different like geography or a club’s ability to win, or perhaps a combination of those factors. Given the secrecy around the meetings, it’s also unclear how each club is pitching Ohtani or what kind of offers they are discussing.

Guardians Win Draft Lottery

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The second ever MLB draft lottery was conducted at the Winter Meetings this afternoon. The Guardians were surprisingly awarded the first overall pick, followed by the Reds and Rockies. Cleveland entered the event with just a 2% chance of securing the highest selection.

Cincinnati also surprisingly drew near the top of the league. The Reds’ chances of landing the first pick were less than 1%. While they didn’t quite get to #1, they jump up to second despite having the 14th-worst record this year.

Here’s the first round order:

  1. Guardians
  2. Reds
  3. Rockies
  4. Athletics
  5. White Sox
  6. Royals
  7. Cardinals
  8. Angels
  9. Pirates
  10. Nationals
  11. Tigers
  12. Red Sox
  13. Giants
  14. Cubs
  15. Mariners
  16. Marlins
  17. Brewers
  18. Rays
  19. Mets
  20. Blue Jays
  21. Twins
  22. Orioles
  23. Dodgers
  24. Padres
  25. Yankees
  26. Braves
  27. Phillies
  28. Astros
  29. Diamondbacks
  30. Rangers

As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all had identical chances of landing the top selection.

All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. That ruled out the Nationals this year, as they selected 2nd overall a season ago. (As an interesting aside, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America relays that a ball for Washington was actually chosen on the initial drawing for the first pick. As a result of the CBA provision capping them from picking higher than 10th, that result was voided. Cleveland’s winning ball was drawn on the second trial.)

This year, the A’s, Royals and Rockies had the best chance of securing the #1 overall selection. Each had an 18.3% probability for the pick. The White Sox (14.7%) and Cardinals (8.3%) had the fourth and fifth highest odds, respectively.

Also of note: none of the Mets, Yankees or Padres were drawn into the top six. Those teams surpassed the third luxury tax tier. As a result, their highest choices were dropped by 10 spots apiece. Had any of them received a lottery pick, their second-highest pick would have been moved back instead.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

While the 2023 draft was extremely highly regarded at the top — particularly with the first five selections — the ’24 class isn’t as lauded. Much can change with the upcoming amateur baseball season in the spring, of course, but early indications are that having a top selection may not be quite as impactful as it would be in a typical season (and certainly not last summer). Baseball America recently updated its Top 100 draft prospects.

Reds Sign Erik González To Minor League Deal

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4:18pm: It is indeed a minor league deal, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, with an invitation to camp.

1:00pm: Infielder Erik González has signed with the Reds, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. There are no details but it’s presumably a minor league deal.

González, now 32, signed a minors deal with the White Sox last offseason. He spent the 2023 season playing for Triple-A Charlotte, getting into 131 games for that club. He hit .272/.322/.360 in that time for a wRC+ of 72 while playing second base, third base and shortstop.

Though he didn’t get called up to the big leagues at any point in 2023, he has 352 games of major league experience. He served part-time roles in each season from 2016 to 2022, suiting up with Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Miami. He hasn’t hit much in that time, with a career batting line of just .242/.276/.340 but he’s been a solid glove-first utility option. He’s received strong marks for his defense at all four infield positions and has even played the outfield on occasion.

The Reds are already loaded with young infielders, as some combination of Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marté, Spencer Steer, Jonathan India and Christian Encarnacion-Strand will be looking for regular playing time while Jose Barrero will likely be in line for a bench role. But injuries are inevitable over a long season and you never know when depth will be needed. The Reds also added Mark Mathias on a minor league deal earlier today and Gonzalez joins him as a non-roster depth option.

Rays Re-Sign Chris Devenski

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The Rays are bringing back a member of their late-season relief corps, announcing Tuesday that they’ve re-signed veteran righty Chris Devenski to a one-year contract with a club option for the 2025 season. Devenski will reportedly be guaranteed $1.1MM in the form of a $1MM salary and $100K buyout on a $2MM option. There are incentives baked into each year of the contract, which also contains escalators in 2024 that can boost the base value of the option.

The deal marks a reunion between the two parties, as Devenski closed out the 2023 season on Tampa Bay’s big league roster after signing a Major League contract in late August. Devenski spent the bulk of the season in the Angels’ bullpen, pitching to a 5.08 ERA with more encouraging secondary marks (23.6% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, 46.3% grounder rate).

As has been the case so many times in the past, a match with the Rays helped him unlock better results. It’s admittedly a small sample, but Devenski yielded just two runs on five hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in 8 2/3 frames following the change of scenery. With Tampa Bay, he leaned on his longtime plus changeup even harder, throwing it at a career-high 56.5% clip.

Early in his career, Devenski was an absolute powerhouse with the Astros, pitching to a 2.38 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate in 189 innings over the life of 110 appearances (five starts, 105 relief outings) from 2016-17. Devenski’s numbers backed up in 2018-19 as he became extremely susceptible to home runs (1.71 HR/9) and also battled a hamstring injury. Elbow soreness wiped out the majority of the already-shortened 2020 season for him, and Devenski underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021. He struggled mightily through 14 2/3 innings between the D-backs and Phillies in his 2022 return.

This past season was Devenski’s first year with at least 15 big league frames since 2019. His 94 mph average fastball was right in line with peak levels, and he posted better-than-average swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates (13% and 33.3%, respectively). He’ll give the Rays a low-cost bullpen flier for as many as two seasons.

Devenski joins a deep Rays bullpen mix that also includes Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Andrew Kittredge, Colin Poche, Kevin Kelly, Shawn Armstrong, Garrett Cleavinger and waiver claim Tyler Alexander. Righties Colby White and Manuel Rodriguez are all on the 40-man roster, too, though each has minor league options remaining. Most of the relievers in the Tampa Bay bullpen are far from household names, as is common for the Rays, but every name listed (minus Alexander, White and Rodriguez) had an ERA of 3.09 or better in the majors this past season.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement and length of the deal. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the financial terms.

Mets Sign Jose Iglesias To Minor League Deal

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The Mets signed veteran shortstop Jose Iglesias to a minor league contract, per a team announcement. The MVP Sports Group client will be invited to big league camp in spring training.

The 2023 season was the first year in which Iglesias, 33, didn’t play in the big leagues since he missed the 2014 season due to injury. Iglesias went to spring training with the Marlins, didn’t make their Opening Day roster, and opted out of his minor league deal with Miami on April 20. He signed multiple minor league deals with the Padres thereafter, opting out of each.

Despite a solid showing with San Diego’s Triple-A club, Iglesias didn’t get a call to the big leagues with the Padres or another club. He played in 28 games with El Paso, batting .317/.356/.537 in 135 trips to the plate.

Prior to the 2023 campaign, Iglesias was a mainstay on big league rosters. Though he’s rarely provided huge value at the plate, he has a track record of strong glovework at shortstop and is also capable of playing both second base and third base. From 2018-22, Iglesias batted .287/.322/.404 — albeit with much of that production coming at very hitter-friendly home venues like Coors Field and Great American Ball Park.

Iglesias has long displayed excellent bat-to-ball skills, evidenced by his career 12.4% strikeout rate. However, he also rarely walks (career 4.3%), regularly leading to strong batting averages with middling on-base percentages and below-average slugging percentages.

With Francisco Lindor at shortstop, Jeff McNeil at second base and a series of third-base options including Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio and Joey Wendle, there’s no clear path to a regular role for Iglesias on the Mets’ roster. That said, he’ll join Zack Short as a potential utility infield option off the bench and give the Mets an experienced veteran they can stash in the upper minors for depth.

Adding depth has been a major focus for new president of baseball operations David Stearns in his first month-plus on the job. In addition to adding Iglesias, signing Wendle to a big league deal, and claiming Short off waivers, the Mets have added catchers Tyler Heineman and Cooper Hummel via waivers; signed pitchers Andre Scrubb, Kyle Crick and Cole Sulser to minor league contracts, and added righty Austin Adams on a split MLB deal.

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