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Roberts: Dodgers Met With Shohei Ohtani Recently

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After droves of secrecy and anonymous reporting about secret meetings between Shohei Ohtani and various suitors, Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts refreshingly came right out and told reporters that his club recently hosted Ohtani for a visit at Dodgers Stadium (link via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). Roberts added that Ohtani is “clearly our top priority.” Asked why he was so direct when other clubs have gone to great measures to conceal their efforts to negotiate with Ohtani, Roberts replied (via MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince): “I don’t feel like lying is something I do. I was asked a question. … It’s going to come out at some point.”

The Dodgers have long been viewed as the likeliest team to sign Ohtani. That’s due to myriad factors, ranging from Ohtani’s prior preference for a West Coast club (during his original foray into MLB free agency) and the Dodgers’ virtually limitless payroll capabilities, among others. The L.A. front office declined to make designated hitter J.D. Martinez a qualifying offer on the heels of a resurgent 33-homer season, reportedly in large part to keep the DH spot in the lineup clear for a potential run at Ohtani.

Ohtani has drawn interest from a wide array of teams, as one would expect from the most prominent two-way star the sport has ever seen. Over the past few days, however, several clubs have appeared to believe their chances to land Ohtani have shrunk. The Red Sox, Mets and Rangers are said to have shifted their focus to other players, while just a couple hours ago it was reported that the Cubs’ optimism in their own pursuit has “significantly waned.”

The Dodgers currently project for a $157MM payroll, per Roster Resource, with just shy of $175MM of luxury tax obligations on the books. That leaves ample room to sign Ohtani without even reaching the $237MM tax threshold, although subsequent additions following a theoretical Ohtani deal could still put the Dodgers firmly into tax territory. That hasn’t been a concern for them in the past, however; the Dodgers have incurred luxury penalties each year since 2019.

Ohtani is believed to have had meetings with the Blue Jays and the Giants in recent days as well. Los Angeles, Toronto, San Francisco and the incumbent Angels are the four prominent names reported to remain in the bidding, although given the cloak-and-dagger nature of Ohtani’s free agency, it’s certainly possible there are other clubs still lurking in the mix to sign him.

Cubs, Rhys Hoskins Have Discussed One-Year And Multi-Year Deals

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First baseman Rhys Hoskins has been on the Cubs’ radar for much of the offseason, and Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that the two sides have remained in contact throughout the winter and discussed both one-year and multi-year proposals.

Word of continued interest in Hoskins comes not long after USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Cubs’ optimism about their chances of landing Shohei Ohtani had “significantly waned.” Perhaps the timing is sheer coincidence, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise for the Cubs to begin exploring contingency plans more earnestly if they indeed believe they’ve fallen behind in their efforts to lure Ohtani to Wrigley Field.

Hoskins, 31 in March, is a logical fit for a Cubs roster that lacks clearly defined options at both first base and designated hitter. Young slugger Christopher Morel is expected to get some reps at first base, but the 24-year-old has to this point in his big league career fanned in just shy of 32% of his plate appearances, making it hard to bank on him as a productive option moving forward — impressive as his power output may be. There’s also the possibility that Morel himself could be part of a trade package to address other needs on the roster; president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer acknowledged when explaining that Morel was likely to see some time at first base that Morel is blocked at his best position (second base) on the Cubs’ roster but “another team might be able to put him there.”

The Cubs also have 32-year-old slugger Patrick Wisdom in both the first base and designated hitter mix, but Wisdom has fanned at a jarring 35.2% clip over the past two seasons while hitting .206/.295/453 in 836 plate appearances. He’s slugged 48 homers in that time, to his credit, but the bulk of Wisdom’s damage has come against left-handed pitching and he could be viewed as more of a part-time player as a result.

Hoskins missed the 2023 season after suffering a torn ACL in spring training. He was a sensible qualifying offer candidate all the same, given his track record, but the Phillies opted not to make the QO and announced early in the offseason that Bryce Harper would be moving to first base on a regular basis. With Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos both also on the roster and in need of DH time, that all but closed the door on a reunion with Hoskins, who’d been the Phillies’ primary first baseman since 2017 (save for a one-year dalliance into left field that did not yield good results).

In parts of six big league seasons, Hoskins is a .242/.353/.493 hitter with 148 home runs. He’s walked at a stout 13.5% clip, and while his 23.9% strikeout rate is worse than average, it’s not that far north of this past season’s 22.7% leaguewide mark. He’s hit between .245 and .247 in four of his past five seasons, with OBPs ranging from .332 to .354 and slugging percentages sitting between .462 and .530. Broadly speaking, even though Hoskins hits for a fairly pedestrian average, his robust walk rate and plus power have made him an above-average performer with the bat. He’s typically graded as a below-average defender at first base but not a complete liability by any means.

That the Cubs and Hoskins have described various permutations of a potential structure shouldn’t come as a surprise. He’s a clear candidate for the conventional one-year pillow contract that so many prominent free agents have taken on the heels of injury-ruined seasons over the years. At the same time, it’s become increasingly common for players to secure two-year pacts wherein the second season is a player option. Such structures might’ve once been reserved for the game’s truly premier players, but we’ve now reached a point where even relievers (e.g. Emilio Pagan), swingmen and back-end starters (e.g. Nick Martinez, Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea) have landed such opportunities.

Agent Scott Boras, who represents Hoskins, has negotiated two-year deals with opt-outs for the aforementioned Martinez and Manaea, in addition to Carlos Rodon and perhaps most relevant to Hoskins, Michael Conforto. Like Hoskins, Conforto missed an entire season due to injury (shoulder surgery), but he nonetheless inked a two-year, $36MM deal with the Giants that allowed him to opt out this winter if he chose. The opt-out was contingent on Conforto reaching 350 plate appearances, which he did, though the former All-Star wound up staying put after an unspectacular first year in San Francisco.

That type of structure could well hold appeal to Hoskins. We at MLBTR placed him 26th on our annual ranking of the game’s top 50 free agents, pegging him for that exact same contract structure signed by Conforto.

White Sox GM Downplays Possibility Of Luis Robert Trade

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The primary focus around the White Sox’ offseason at present is their ongoing slate of trade negotiations surrounding righty Dylan Cease, the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up. Rookie ChiSox GM Chris Getz said last month that there are no players on the roster that he deems untouchable, Cease included, but he continues to describe center fielder Luis Robert Jr. differently that others on his roster.

Getz openly acknowledged widespread interest in Cease yesterday (link via Scott Merkin of MLB.com), noting that there’s no club in MLB that “doesn’t have a level of interest” before eventually adding that Cease is “right at the top” of the offseason market for starting pitching. On Robert, however, Getz understandably struck a different tone.

“Luis Robert is a very difficult player to move and expect that your club is going to get better because of it,” said Getz. “We’re talking about one of the best players in baseball, and we’re very fortunate to have him with the Chicago White Sox. So I have a tough time seeing him wearing another uniform next year.”

Getz again sidestepped the type of firm denial his Anaheim counterpart, Perry Minasian, put forth today on former AL MVP Mike Trout. But Getz also continues to characterize Robert as someone who’s all but assured of staying put on Chicago’s South Side. The reasoning isn’t hard to see. While the Sox are coming off a disastrous 101-loss season, Robert was nothing short of sensational i 2023, hitting .264/.315/.548 with 38 home runs, 36 doubles, 20 steals (in 24 tries) and plus defense in center field. Had the White Sox not been all but eliminated from contention by the end of April, Robert quite likely would’ve found himself on more MVP ballots. (He finished 12th as it is.)

Beyond Robert’s general excellence on the field, he’s also just 26 years old and is signed for another two seasons with two subsequent club options thereafter. In all, he can be controlled through the 2027 season at a combined total of $67.5MM. That type of commitment over a four-year term from a prime-aged center fielder with an MVP-caliber ceiling is a staggering bargain — particularly when the last two seasons aren’t even guaranteed (thus affording the team an eject option if Robert incurs a significant injury).

Ultimately, a trade feels decidedly unlikely. We haven’t seen an established player with this level of affordable contract/team control traded in some time; Juan Soto might be the best recent comparison, but he had just two and a half seasons of control remaining and was expected to earn more than Robert over the course of his remaining control as a player going year-to-year through arbitration (with enormous counting stats).

Once Shohei Ohtani and other top free agents are off the board (ditto Juan Soto and other prominent trade candidates), clubs who miss out on those top targets could well circle back to the White Sox and Robert. However, the type of farm-depleting haul that Robert would command is probably one from which nearly any of Getz’s peers would shy away.

Minasian: Mike Trout “100 Percent” Not Getting Traded

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Angels general manager Perry Minasian spoke to the media at the Winter Meetings today, emphatically declaring that a Mike Trout trade is not happening, with Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com among those to pass along his comments. “Mike Trout is not getting traded,” Minasian said. “100 percent.”

There was never really any concrete reporting to suggest that a Trout trade was actually being considered, just speculation from outside observers. The argument for contemplating a trade was essentially that the club hasn’t been good enough in recent years, despite having both Trout and Shohei Ohtani on the same team. They haven’t had a winning season since 2015, haven’t made the postseason since 2014 and haven’t won a playoff game since 2009. With Ohtani now a free agent and perhaps signing elsewhere, it was suggested by some that the club should look to blow up the roster and start over.

But that is clearly not how the Halos are viewing things. Last month, Minasian made it clear that the club is not rebuilding and is actually planning on being aggressive this winter in adding to the roster. That may involve luring Ohtani back to Anaheim or perhaps pivoting to other notable transactions, but trading Trout doesn’t make sense in any scenario where the club is still trying to win in the short term.

Even if the club were to decide to make Trout available at some point down the road, there would be challenges in doing so. For one thing, Trout has a full no-trade clause and would therefore have to give the green light to any deal. Back in September, he spoke about how he intended to play for the Angels in 2024.

It’s also fair to wonder how much trade value he actually has at this point. Various injuries have limited him to 237 games played over the past three seasons, less than half of the club’s 486 contests for that time frame. He was able to get into 82 games in 2023, with a left hamate fracture wiping out much of his second half, but had diminished production when on the field. His batting line of .263/.367/.490 was still well above average, translating to a wRC+ of 134, but he had never previously had a wRC+ below 167 in a full season. He also hasn’t reached double-digit steals since 2019 and the advanced defensive metrics have been split on his glovework in recent years.

That’s not to say Trout isn’t still a very good player. FanGraphs still pegged him as being worth 3.0 wins above replacement in 2023, even with the drop from his own ridiculous standards and only playing half the year. But he’s now 32 years old with his health becoming a growing concern and he is still being paid at an elite level.

Trout’s contract still has seven more years on it with $248.15MM still to be paid out, a rate of $35.45MM per year through 2030. Even if the club decides to change their plans a year from now, he will still have six years and $212.7MM remaining, going into his age-33 season. Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker to look at data going back to 2010, we can see that the largest guarantee secured by a player going into his age-33 season or older is Jacob deGrom’s $185MM deal from last offseason. Among position players, Josh Donaldson’s $92MM tops the list.

Unless Trout can suddenly return to total health and MVP-caliber production, there’s likely not any surplus value in the deal. Though he’s still a valuable player, it would be hard for him to secure this elite-level salary if he were on the open market. That means the Angels would either have to settle for a middling return to clear the money off the books or eat some cash in order to secure a more notable return. That figures to put the club in an awkward spot on terms of public relations with Trout having been the face of the franchise for so long, and that goes double if Ohtani also ends up leaving for another club this winter.

Ultimately, with the Angels set on competing, keeping Trout and hoping for a return to form is the most sensible option. The rest of the offseason will determine if his supporting cast will be stronger than it has been in recent years.

Red Sox “Stepping Up Efforts” In Pursuit Of Seth Lugo

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Dec. 5: The Red Sox are “stepping up [their] efforts” to bring Lugo to Boston, reports Heyman, who notes that the Braves are among the four to five other clubs still in the mix for the righty. Cotillo tweets the Red Sox are “expected” to make a formal offer to Lugo soon, if they haven’t already.

Dec. 4: Seth Lugo is a popular target in the middle tiers of free agency. The Tigers (prior to signing Kenta Maeda) and Dodgers have been publicly tied to the right-hander, who has reportedly drawn interest from upwards of half the league.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds a few more clubs to the mix, reporting that the Braves are among the teams showing interest. Heyman adds the Reds, Red Sox and Diamondbacks have also been involved this offseason — although it’s not specified whether Cincinnati’s interest predated their two-year contract with Lugo’s former San Diego teammate Nick Martinez.

The newly revealed suitors on Lugo are all sensible. Each has found themselves in the market for starting pitching. The Braves made a run at Aaron Nola before he returned to the Phillies. They subsequently signed Reynaldo López, whom they’re considering stretching back to rotation work. Atlanta also acquired Marco Gonzales in last night’s trade with the Mariners but reportedly plan to flip the southpaw elsewhere.

Boston has been in the market for multiple starting pitchers. They’re involved on top-of-the-market options like Jordan Montgomery and Yoshinobu Yamamoto but are surely identifying targets at various tiers of free agency. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow reiterated this afternoon that the rotation was the Sox’s top priority (relayed by Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

The D-Backs have made no secret of their desire for a mid-rotation starter to step in behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly and alongside Brandon Pfaadt. Arizona general manager Mike Hazen suggested this evening that acquisition was likelier to come via free agency than trade, although he unsurprisingly indicated they’re exploring both avenues (link via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com).

Cincinnati added Martinez last week, bringing in the veteran righty to join an otherwise young starting staff. There’s still room for more innings considering the injury history and/or limited MLB track records of players like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson. The Reds have also left open the possibility of keeping Martinez in a swing/multi-inning relief role, although it’d be an odd decision to guarantee him $13MM annually over two seasons if they didn’t anticipate him earning a spot in the rotation.

Lugo, entering his age-34 campaign, is reportedly seeking a three-year deal. He has a strong case for one on the heels of a 3.57 ERA over 26 starts for the Padres.

Report: Cubs’ Optimism On Landing Ohtani “Has Waned”

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Shohei Ohtani’s camp at CAA has done a good job keeping his free agency a relatively silent endeavor, but there have been occasional indicators that his market is beginning to narrow. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported last week that the Red Sox, Rangers and Mets had shifted their focus to players other than Ohtani, not believing themselves to be strong contenders to land him. Today, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Cubs are in a similar position. Chicago’s “optimism of landing Ohtani has now significantly waned,” per Nightengale, citing a high-ranking team executive.

Known suitors for Ohtani generally include the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Angels and Giants. (Others have surely expressed interest throughout the offseason.) If the Cubs are indeed pessimistic and/or turning their attention elsewhere, that makes four teams in the past four days that are now said to be increasingly doubtful about their chances of landing the two-time AL MVP. Given the secretive nature of Ohtani’s market, it’s always possible there are additional, surprise suitors lurking, but to this point there’s little to no indication of the ever-popular “mystery team” joining the fray.

As a major market club with long-term needs in the rotation and an immediate gap at designated hitter, the Cubs made plenty of sense as an Ohtani suitor. Chicago’s projected $178MM payroll is a ways of from the franchise-record $203MM Opening Day mark, and for a player like Ohtani it stands to reason that most clubs would be comfortable stretching beyond their previously established comfort levels. Ohtani could’ve slotted into the 2025 rotation alongside Justin Steele and would’ve added a thunderous left-handed bat to a lineup that could well lose resurgent Cody Bellinger, who is also a free agent.

Over the past few days, reports have emerged of in-person meetings between Ohtani’s camp and a few clubs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported yesterday that the Blue Jays are “believed” to have met with Ohtani at their spring complex on Monday, when GM Ross Atkins was noticeably absent from the site of the Winter Meetings in Nashville and conducted his media availability via Zoom. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle similarly reported that there were “indications” of a weekend meeting between the Giants and Ohtani at Oracle Park in San Francisco.

Suffice it to say, most teams have been quite wary of tipping their hand and perhaps harming their chances of hammering out a deal with Ohtani, who clearly wants a free-agent experience that does not play out in the public eye. While there was originally hope that Ohtani might make a decision at this week’s Winter Meetings, over the past 48 hours each of Nightengale, Jon Heyman of the New York Post and others have begun to suggest that Ohtani could continue conducting meetings with teams after this week’s event.

Astros Sign Brailyn Marquez To Minor League Deal

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The Astros have signed left-hander Brailyn Marquez to a minor league contract, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. It’s unclear if the southpaw will receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Marquez, 25 in January, joins a new organization for the first time in his career. The Cubs signed him as an international amateur out of the Dominican Republic during the 2015-16 signing period and he has been with that club until now. As a minor leaguer, he became one of the top prospects in that system and one of the top 100 in the league, thanks to a fastball that could touch triple digits. But that power came with poor command and subsequent health problems.

He was able to make his major league debut in 2020, but lasted just two thirds of an inning while issuing three walks and allowing five earned runs. After that, he didn’t pitch at all in either the 2021 or 2022 campaigns, spending each of those two seasons on the minor league injured list. He underwent shoulder surgery in July of 2022 and was non-tendered after that campaign.

He re-signed with the Cubs on a minor league deal for 2023 and didn’t make an appearance until the middle of June. He eventually got into 23 games on the farm, tossing 30 2/3 innings across various levels. He had a 4.99 earned run average in that time while striking out 28.4% of batters, but he also issued walks at a 24.5% clip.

That’s still a fairly small sample size after two completely lost seasons, so just taking the mound and getting some punchouts counts as a good bit of progress. Despite the setbacks, he is still quite young, in addition to having just three days of service time and one remaining option year. Perhaps getting further removed from his surgery can allow him to improve his control as time goes on, thus making him a viable depth piece for the Astros.

He came up as a starter but he’s probably best suited to relief work now, after not pitching much in the past four years due to injuries and the pandemic. The Astros have often operated without much in terms of left-handed relief in recent years. They currently have Bennett Sousa, Parker Mushinski and Matt Gage on the 40-man roster but no one in that group has reached 30 MLB innings pitched yet.

Astros, Rangers, Red Sox, Angels Among Teams Interested In Jordan Hicks

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December 5: The Angels and Red Sox have also checked in on Hicks, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Both clubs could use some bullpen reinforcements, with Boston relievers having posted a collective 4.32 ERA in 2023 while the Angels were at 4.88.

December 4: The Astros, Rangers, Cardinals and Orioles are among the teams with interest in right-hander Jordan Hicks this offseason, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Cardinals and Orioles having interest is no surprise since they had previously been linked to the 27-year-old earlier in the offseason. The connections to the Rangers and Astros, however, are new.

The Rangers make plenty of sense as a potential fit for Hicks. The reigning World Series champions got excellent results out of their offense and starting pitching in 2023, but faced significant struggles in the bullpen. The club’s relief corps combined for a 4.77 ERA that was bottom-seven in the majors, while the group’s 4.45 FIP and 2.6 fWAR were also bottom-ten figures. The Twins, Diamondbacks, and Marlins were the only other playoff teams to feature a bottom-ten bullpen in even one of those three categories, and no club besides the Rangers appeared in the bottom of those leaderboards more than once.

That acute need for bullpen additions has led the Rangers to be frequently connected to top-of-the-market closer Josh Hader, who posted a sensational season in 2023 with a 1.28 ERA and a 36.8% strikeout rate while picking up 33 saves in 56 1/3 innings of work with the Padres. That being said, Hader has a chance to land a record-breaking contract in free agency this offseason, with MLBTR projecting the lefty for a six-year, $110MM contract on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, on which he ranks eighth overall. Coming off a World Series championship in 2023 and a pair of offseasons where they were among the league’s biggest spenders, it’s possible that sort of contract won’t be a problem for Texas.

That being said, GM Chris Young recently cautioned that the club doesn’t expect to spend quite as lavishly this offseason as they have the past two winters. If the Rangers do find that Hader is out of their price range, Hicks could represent a more affordable alternative who has still flashed elite upside as a late-inning arm. Hicks, who was the second-highest rated reliever (#21 overall) on MLBTR’s list with a projected price tag of four years and $40MM, boasts a triple-digit fastball with sinking action that allows him to post groundball rates near 60% on a yearly basis.

While control and injury issues have dogged Hicks throughout his career, the righty is still three seasons away from his 30th birthday and impressed this season with a career-high 28.4% strikeout rate. While his 3.29 ERA hardly jumps off the page for a back-end relief arm, it’s worth noting that Hicks’ season numbers are skewed by a brutal early-season performance where he surrendered nine runs (eight earned) in just 5 2/3 innings across seven appearances. After that point, Hicks boasted a sterling 2.40 ERA and 2.59 FIP with a 30% strikeout rate against a 9.6% walk rate in his final 60 innings of work. While its not reasonable to simply ignore a rocky start to the season entirely, Hicks’s strong performance after the first two weeks of his season does highlight the tantalizing upside the right-hander has flashed throughout his career.

The Astros, on the other hand, are a somewhat less obvious suitor. Veteran righty Ryan Pressly is entrenched as the club’s closer, while young hurler Bryan Abreu has emerged as one of the best young relief arms in the league with a 1.84 ERA and 2.59 FIP across the past two seasons. That duo led the Astros’ relief corps to a sterling 3.56 ERA in 2023, the sixth-best figure in the league. Houston’s bullpen sports similarly strong advanced metrics, as only six clubs posted a better collective SIERA than the Astros’ 3.79 figure.

Good as the club’s relief corps was in 2023, however, it’s important to note that the Astros have since lost key pieces such as Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, and Phil Maton to free agency. While Pressly and Abreu certainly make for a strong back-end duo, Houston looking to replace those outgoing arms is hardly a surprise, and few options available figure to be better than Hicks. While the Astros clearly need additional relief arms to supplement the roster, it’s fair to wonder if Hicks is the most realistic target for the club from a financial perspective. GM Dana Brown cautioned earlier in the offseason that the club doesn’t have “a ton” of financial flexibility to work with this winter while telling reporters he’s “not interested in overpaying” for bullpen arms.

Given the club’s limited financial flexibility, it would register as something of a surprise for the Astros to commit a hefty sum to a single reliever given their other needs. The Astros are known to be in the market for a backup catcher in addition to bullpen, to say nothing of the possibility they look to add a left-handed bat to replace Michael Brantley or shore up a starting rotation lacking in certainty behind Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. While it’s impossible to deny that the addition of Hicks to a bullpen that already features Abreu and Pressly could create a three-headed monster that few teams could replicate, it’s fair as a wonder if a cheaper option could be more feasible for Houston from a financial perspective. One such option could be a reunion with Hector Neris, who The Athletic’s Chandler Rome relayed this evening Brown has been in contact with. MLBTR ranked Neris, who posted a 1.71 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 68 1/3 innings for the Astros last year, as the offseason’s #46 free agent while projecting him for a two-year, $15MM deal.

Pirates, Ben Heller Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates have agreed to a deal with free agent reliever Ben Heller, as first reported by Jomboy’s Jack Oliver. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette adds that it’s a minor league deal for the right-hander. Heller is a client of Onyx Sports Management.

Heller, 32, pitched 18 2/3 innings for the Braves in 2023, logging a 3.86 ERA with a 19.5% strikeout rate, 13.1% walk rate and 49.1% ground-ball rate. He also notched a tidy 3.27 ERA with a 28.9% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in 44 2/3 Triple-A frames between the Braves and Rays organizations.

Once a fairly well-regarded bullpen prospect who went from Cleveland to the Bronx (alongside Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield and J.P. Feyereisen) in the 2016 Andrew Miller trade, Heller has seen his career decimated by injuries. From 2018-22, Heller dealt with bone spurs in his pitching elbow (2018), underwent Tommy John surgery (2019) and was plagued by a nerve injury in his right biceps (2020-21). He was limited to just 35 2/3 innings between the big leagues and minors combined during that brutal stretch of health woes.

When he’s been healthy enough to pitch in the majors, Heller has been quite effective. He touts a career 3.06 ERA in 50 frames, albeit with suboptimal strikeout and walk rates of 20.9% and 11.8%, respectively. While he was working to rehab all those injuries, Heller restored some zip on his fastball; he flashed a 96.2 mph average as a rookie in 2016 before dipping to 94 mph in 2017-20. He was back up to 95.9 mph on his seldom-used four-seamer with Atlanta this past year, however, and averaged 94.9 mph on his newly implemented sinker.

He’ll need to make the big league roster as a non-roster invitee, but if Heller works his way back to the big leagues in Pittsburgh, he can be controlled for at least three more seasons via the arbitration process.

Rockies Focused On Pitching Help, Bench Upgrades

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The Rockies’ 59-103 record in 2023 was third-worst in baseball, leaving general manager Bill Schmidt no shortage of paths to explore when searching for upgrades. However, although the Rockies were somewhat surprisingly one of MLB’s lightest-hitting clubs in ’23 — 17th in batting average, 25th in on-base percentage, 20th in slugging percentage and 30th in wRC+ — Schmidt said at this week’s Winter Meetings that pursuing a power bat isn’t high on his list of priorities (via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). Upgrading the pitching staff and deepening manager Bud Black’s bench will be the greater focus, per Schmidt. Specifically, he’d like to add a veteran backup catcher behind Elias Diaz (via DNVR’s Patrick Lyons).

Both areas could clearly use augmentation. The pitching staff, in particular, was dreadful — due in no small part to injuries. An already shaky Rockies staff lost both German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela to Tommy John surgery last year. Each of Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner, Connor Seabold, Chase Anderson, Ty Blach, Peter Lambert and Chris Flexen started at least 10 games for the Rox. None did so with an ERA lower than Freeland’s 5.03. Colorado starters posted an MLB-worst 5.91 ERA, and things weren’t any better in the bullpen, where the Rockies sported an MLB-worst 5.41 ERA and a 29th-ranked 20.4% strikeout rate.

Schmidt has already added one arm to the rotation mix, buying low on Guardians righty Cal Quantrill following a down season. Coors Field isn’t exactly an ideal spot for a pitcher to try to rebuild his value, but Quantrill did post a 3.08 ERA in 368 innings from 2020-22. Shoulder inflammation limited him to 19 starts in 2023 (and perhaps contributed to an ugly 5.24 ERA), but Quantrill took the ball 32 times as recently as 2022. He was a perfectly sensible addition for a Rockies team that’s desperate for arms but lacking in high-end prospects needed to acquire difference-making pitchers. Most available high-end trade targets are controllable for two or even just one year anyhow, and a Rockies team that’s at best an extreme long-shot to contend probably doesn’t want to sacrifice too much long-term value for short-term upgrades.

Because of their long odds at playoff contention, it seems the Rockies are intent on taking a look at a series of young players rather than displacing them with more expensive free agents. Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar will get another opportunity to provide some value with his bat after a brilliant defensive showing in his rookie season but a lackluster offensive performance (.253/.287/.408). The 2024 season will be something of a mulligan for second baseman Brendan Rodgers, who missed much of the 2023 season on the injured list. Nolan Jones will look to build on an impressive rookie showing, likely in right field.

Schmidt indicated that first base will likely belong to Kris Bryant, though occasional right field work is also on the table (link via Lyons). Ryan McMahon, signed through 2027, is locked in at the hot corner. The Rox re-signed veteran Charlie Blackmon to serve as their primary DH before the season even opened, guaranteeing him a surprisingly strong $13MM salary in the process.

Saunders writes that the Rockies also have higher hopes for outfielders Sean Bouchard and Brenton Doyle. The former suffered a ruptured biceps tendon prior to the season and missed most of the year, but he’s produced a massive .304/.429/.563 slash in 140 plate appearances between 2022-23. Doyle was perhaps baseball’s least-productive hitter in 2023, batting .203/.250/.343 with a 35% strikeout rate in 431 plate appearances. He also posted flat-out elite defensive grades, however, drawing enormous positives from Defensive Runs Saved (19), Ultimate Zone Rating (24.5) and Outs Above Average (16) in well south of a full season’s worth of innings. With that type of defensive wizardry, he only needs to clear a low bar at the plate to be a valuable everyday player, but last year’s output wasn’t enough.

Improving the bench shouldn’t be a difficult proposition. Brian Serven is the current favorite for backup catching work but carries just a .195/.248/.314 line in 228 MLB plate appearances. Bouchard and/or 24-year-old Hunter Goodman could get regular work in right field or carve out a bench role, but both have minor league options remaining. Utility infielder Alan Trejo has hit .243/.292/.367 in 402 MLB plate appearances over the past three seasons. He’s versatile but also out of options, and a more productive utility infielder should be available.

The main question for the Rockies’ bench could pertain to former top prospect Elehuris Montero, who’s yet to cement himself at either infield corner. The presence of McMahon, Bryant and Blackmon leaves the 26-year-old Montero, who’s hit just .239/.283/.428 in 492 MLB plate appearances, without a path to regular playing time. But Montero is also out of minor league options, so he’ll have to crack the big league roster or else be either traded or exposed to waivers. Montero was a notable piece of the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado return from the Cardinals, but he’s something of an odd man out with regard to the current allotment of playing time. Then again, Bryant has spent ample time on the injured list in recent seasons, and Montero could be the first man up should he again need time on the shelf.

The Rockies currently project for a payroll of about $142MM, per Roster Resource, which is around $30MM shy of last year’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll (a bit more than $172MM). There’s room for the club to spend, but convincing free agent pitchers to sign on the dotted line and call Coors Field home is no small feat. And the Rockies’ farm system generally isn’t well regarded, which makes adding arms on the trade market difficult, too (hence the buy-low pickup of Quantrill).

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