Orioles general manager Mike Elias met with the media as pitchers and catchers report to the team’s spring training facility in Sarasota, Fla., and the GM provided a handful of less-than-ideal updates regarding his pitching staff. Most notably, righty Dillon Tate sustained a forearm/flexor strain in late November and is expected to miss at least the first month of the season (Twitter link via Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun). Tate will open the year on the 15-day injured list.
Meanwhile, closer Felix Bautista has spent the winter rehabbing from the left knee injury that ended his season and has also been on a strengthening program for his right shoulder (Twitter link via MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko). His spring debut will be delayed, so he’s not a lock to be ready by Opening Day. Top prospect DL Hall is also behind schedule after experiencing some lower lumber discomfort about three weeks ago (via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner). Elias didn’t rule out the possibility that southpaw Nick Vespi, who underwent surgery to repair a hernia in early January, would be ready for Opening Day, but that’s not a given either.
Tate’s injury status is presently the largest blow to the club, as he quietly stepped up as a high-end setup piece for Bautista in 2022. The former No. 4 overall draft pick logged a career-high 73 2/3 innings while recording a tidy 3.05 ERA. Tate picked up 16 holds and five saves, offsetting a below-average 20.5% strikeout rate with excellent walk and ground-ball rates of 5.5% and 57.1%, respectively.
The Orioles and Tate agreed to a $1.5MM salary earlier in the offseason, avoiding an arbitration hearing in Tate’s first trip through the process. He’s under control through the 2025 campaign and had previously looked to be in the running for Baltimore’s top setup option to Bautista. At least in the season’s early stages, some of those high-leverage innings that would’ve gone to Tate will now instead fall to veteran Mychal Givens — who returned to the O’s on a one-year free agent deal this winter — and lefty Cionel Perez.
Speaking of Bautista, there’s no firm indication that he’ll miss any regular-season time just yet, but even a short-term absence would be a notable hit to the bullpen. The 27-year-old hadn’t pitched above A-ball until 2021, when he posted a combined 1.54 ERA across three minor league levels, topping out with just 18 1/3 frames in Triple-A. That, apparently, was all the upper-minors seasoning he needed; Bautista not only made the Orioles’ Opening Day roster in 2022 but almost immediately broke out as one of the game’s top relievers.
In 65 2/3 innings last season, Bautista notched an outstanding 2.19 ERA and tallied the first 15 saves of his career. He averaged an obscene 99.3 mph on both his four-seamer and his sinker, which played a huge role in the right-hander’s gaudy 34.8% strikeout rate. Unlike many flamethrowers who lack any semblance of precision with their high-octane heaters, Bautista turned in a 9.1% walk rate that matched the league-average walk rate for relief pitchers. Obviously, it’s discouraging to hear that last year’s knee issue required what was apparently a relatively lengthy rehab process, but to this point the O’s haven’t broadcast any reason for major concern, either.
As for Hall, the back troubles could throw a wrench into his bid for a spot in the team’s rotation to begin the season. The former first-round pick (No. 21 in 2017) has stated at multiple points this winter that his goal is to win a starting job to begin the season. Given his prospect status and the general uncertainty on the Orioles’ staff behind Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin, that seemed plausible, but expectations should likely be tempered until it becomes clearer as to when Hall’s spring regiment can begin in earnest.
The 24-year-old Hall made his MLB debut last season, starting one game and making ten relief appearances. In 13 1/3 frames, he was tagged for nine runs on 17 hits and six walks. The resulting 5.93 ERA was an eyesore, but Hall flashed huge strikeout potential by fanning 19 of the 64 batters he faced (29.7%). He hasn’t any problems missing bats in the minors, either, evidenced by a mammoth 43.4% strikeout rate in 35 1/3 career Double-A frames as well as a 36.1% mark in 76 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level.
Where Hall has struggled — and struggled repeatedly — is with his command. The lefty has walked an untenable 13.4% of his opponents across parts of five minor league seasons, including an even more troublesome 14.2% mark in Triple-A. That lack of command has prompted many scouting reports to peg Hall for a future in the bullpen, but the O’s are understandably intent on giving him a legitimate opportunity to stick as a starter. He’s been used almost exclusively as a starter in the minors, with 69 of his 77 total appearances coming out of the rotation.
If Hall is behind schedule to the point that he can’t be ready for a big league rotation spot early in the year, that’ll create additional opportunities for Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Spenser Watkins, Bruce Zimmermann, Mike Baumann and top prospect Grayson Rodriguez. That said, so long as Hall’s back injury doesn’t prove too serious, he’ll likely get an opportunity early in the season. He and Rodriguez are the organization’s top two pitching prospects, and while Rodriguez (arguably the sport’s top all-around pitching prospect) is typically held in higher regard, Hall nevertheless landed in the No. 75 spot on Baseball America’s 2023 Top 100 prospect rankings.
