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Alex Bregman’s Slow Start Could Cost Him Millions

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Both the Astros and Alex Bregman are off to slow starts in 2024. There’s still lots of time left in the season for things to change, both for the club and for the player. But Bregman is set to be one of the top free agents available this winter and his slow start could have a significant impact on his earning power.

Bregman, 30, has appeared in 25 games this year and taken 108 trips to the plate. He remains tough to strike out, as his 12% clip is a match for last year’s rate and close to his career average. His 9.3% walk rate is a bit above this year’s 8.6% league average but well below Bregman’s previous form, as he drew free passes in 13.8% of his plate appearances from 2018 to 2023.

When he has put the bat on the ball, he hasn’t been able to do damage. Most notably, he has yet to hit a home run this season. He has just 21 hits, with his five doubles being the only knocks of the extra-base variety. His batting line for the year is .216/.287/.268, which translates to a wRC+ of 65, indicating he’s been 35% worse than league average. His .247 batting average on balls in play is below average and below his career rate, but his barrel rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are also down relative to his career marks.

As mentioned, there’s plenty of time for him to turn things around, since we’re not even in the month of May yet. Bregman has been here before. The slump is not without precedent. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his .555 OPS this year is the seventh-worst of any 25-game stretch of his career. The six worse stretches all had a winter’s gap, as they each go from the end of 2022 to the start of 2023. That means Bregman is technically in the worst single-season slump of his career, but he also had a .558 OPS across May and June of 2022, not far off from his current woes.

Given that he’s had a tailspin like this before, it seems fair to expect him to pull out of it. However, that doesn’t mean teams won’t use it against him in free agency. As we just saw in the winter, clubs are quite willing to wave any red flags they can get their hands on if it helps their bargaining position.

Cody Bellinger hit .307/.356/.525 for the Cubs last year and seemed poised for a huge payday, especially when also factoring in his 20 stolen bases and center field defense. But his mega contract never arrived, perhaps due to health concerns or perhaps due to his Statcast data being on the weak side. He was notoriously poor over 2021 and 2022 in the aftermath of shoulder surgery, and his 2023 bounceback season still saw him go on the injured list. While the end-of-season results were strong, his average exit velocity was in the 22nd percentile of qualified league hitters while his hard hit rate was in the 10th.

On the other end of the spectrum was Matt Chapman, who had strong Statcast metrics but tepid results. Chapman’s exit velocity and hard hit rate were among the best in the league, finishing in the 98th and 100th percentile, respectively. But he hit .240/.330/.424 on the year overall, 110 wRC+, and in rather uneven fashion. As many pointed out, he hit .384/.465/.687 in April but then .205/.298/.361 the rest of the way. That framing ignores the fact that Chapman was still good in July and got hurt in August, which may have made his post-April stats look worse than they were, but it may not have mattered.

When MLBTR previewed the upcoming free agent class, which is linked above, it was mentioned that a seven- or eight-year deal north of $200MM was a possibility for Bregman. Flawed-but-talented players have certainly gone over that line before, with Xander Bogaerts and Anthony Rendon some of the recent examples. The expectation of the industry was that players like Bellinger and Chapman could get nine-figure deals despite their own issues, but that’s not how it played out. Each had to settle for a three-year deal with opt-outs, hoping that continued strong performance could lead to a better deal down the road.

Bregman has plenty of attributes that he and his reps can point to. Injuries have not been a major factor for him, as he has played at least 155 games in five of the past six full seasons. His strikeout and walk rates are both consistently better than average, while his third base defense is rated well. The elite offense he showed in 2018 and 2019 might be gone, but he hit .261/.364/.447 over 2022 and 2023 for a 131 wRC+.

But his struggles this year could be used against him, even if they don’t last all year, which could be tricky for Bregman. Back in March of 2019, he signed a $100MM extension with the club which locked in some big money for him but also gave the club two years of extra control. That means that despite debuting in the big leagues at the age of 22, he’ll be going into free agency ahead of his age-31 season.

It seems fair to assume that Bregman and his representatives at the Boras Corporation would prefer to lock in as much money as they can this winter. Boras clients have pivoted to short-term deals when necessary, but Bregman’s age make that undesirable, as it will be harder for him to increase his earning power as he moves deeper into his 30s. He and the Astros have had some on-and-off talks about another extension in recent years, but the fact that nothing has come together yet perhaps suggests that he has been holding out for something big this winter.

The Astros under owner Jim Crane have been averse to lengthy contracts, having never gone longer than six years. Even the six-year extensions they did agree to were for much younger players. Jose Altuve got a six-year deal which started with his age-29 season while Yordan Alvarez got one starting for his age-26 campaign. However, they did just sign another extension with Altuve, a five-year pact that covers his age-35 through age-39 seasons, so it’s not as though going deep into a player’s 30s is completely off the table.

Perhaps Bregman can finish the season strong and the market conditions will eventually work in his favor. This past offseason, it seems like factors such as dwindling TV revenue and the competitive balance tax had negative impacts on free agents. It’s possible to imagine a correction this winter. Perhaps the Mets will be looking to get more aggressive after being relatively quiet. Maybe the new owner of the Orioles looks to make a headline-grabbing deal. Maybe the Red Sox come out swinging after some positive player development in 2024.

But even if those stars do align, those clubs will have other options, such as 26-year-old hitting savant Juan Soto, bona fide ace Corbin Burnes, consistent power threat Pete Alonso or everyday shortstop Willy Adames.

Even the teams looking to make a big splash next winter might not have Bregman atop their list as a 31-year-old third baseman who has been quite good but not necessarily elite in recent years. The longer this slump continues, the more they can use it as a bargaining tactic. Bregman and Boras surely noticed what happened to Bellinger, Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who all had to lower their demands as the recent offseason slouched along. Even Snell’s Cy Young season couldn’t wash away concerns about his previous low points.

One thing that could work in Bregman’s favor is if the Astros keep struggling and he winds up traded at the deadline, which would make him ineligible for a qualifying offer. But Montgomery didn’t have a QO attached to him this past winter and that didn’t seem to matter much. Bregman and the Boras team are undoubtedly aware that there’s a wide range of outcomes for his free agency, making the next few months all the more important.

Twins Notes: Correa, Martin, Duran, Sands

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The Twins announced Monday that they’ve reinstated shortstop Carlos Correa from the 10-day injured list. Infielder/outfielder Austin Martin was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul in a corresponding move. Correa wound up missing just over two weeks with what was originally announced a a likely oblique strain but was reclassified as a more mild intercostal strain after he underwent an MRI.

It’s a boon for an already-surging Twins lineup that has rattled off seven straight wins. Strength of schedule has been a big part of that, as the Twins are coming off sweeps of the White Sox and Angels (and are now in Chicago for another three-game set against the South Siders). Correa hit .306/.432/.444 with a homer and two doubles in 44 trips to the plate before sustaining the injury. He’ll reclaim his everyday shortstop role and a slot near the heart of the Twins’ batting order.

Correa’s return brings an end to the first big league stint for the 25-year-old Martin, who handled himself well for a couple weeks before falling into a 3-for-21 slump that dragged his batting line down to .226/.294/.371. The former No. 5 overall pick showed strong contact skills (17.6% strikeout rate) and defensive versatility with time at each of second base, left field and center field.

Martin is in the first of three option years and figures to be back in the big leagues before too long. He’s outplayed struggling veterans Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot, but both have lengthy track records that will earn them some more leash to right the ship. Jettisoning either instead of Martin would surely have depleted the organization’s depth, as both could reject minor league assignments and become free agents once their contracts cleared waivers.

Correa isn’t the only key piece expected to return to the Twins before long. Closer Jhoan Duran has made a pair of rehab outings in St. Paul and was sharp in his most recent one. Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that Minnesota’s flamethrowing righty tossed a clean inning with two strikeouts and induced whiffs on six of eight swings against him Saturday, topping out at 102.9 mph with his heater.

Duran, 26, has established himself as one of the game’s premier relievers since debuting in 2022. He’s been on the injured list all season due to an oblique strain but touts a 2.15 ERA 33.2% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 63.4% ground-ball rate in 130 big league innings. He’s saved 35 games for the Twins and picked up another 19 holds since cracking the Opening Day roster as a rookie back in ’22.

Duran’s return will only strengthen a Minnesota bullpen that ranks third in MLB with a 2.62 earned run average. Twins relievers are also second in strikeout rate at 29.8%, 12th in walk rate at 9.2%, fourth in FIP at 3.40 and second in SIERA at 2.98. Former starter Cole Sands has been a big part of that, turning in 13 1/3 innings (second among Twins relievers) with a 1.35 ERA, 36.5% strikeout rate and 3.8% walk rate.

It’s an incredible turnaround for Sands, who entered the year with a 4.99 ERA in 52 1/3 big league frames. He’s seen his average fastball climb from 93.7 mph last year to 95 mph in 2024, and his newly implemented cutter has been excellent. Opponents don’t yet have a hit against Sands’ four-seamer this season.

Sands’ success, history as a starter and the current state of the rotation — Anthony DeSclafani out for the season, Louie Varland optioned to Triple-A after struggling — prompted Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic to ask president of baseball ops Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli about the possibility of stretching Sands back out as a starter. Neither wholly discounted the possibility, though Falvey noted how well Sands has been pitching in a relief capacity and emphasized that if things reach that point, the Twins will need to “do it thoughtfully” because midseason role changes can be particularly tricky.

As things stand, the Twins are going with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and rookie Simeon Woods Richardson in the rotation. Ober and Paddack have each had one nightmare start where they were tagged for eight runs but have been otherwise sharp. Woods Richardson has made just two starts but flashed improved velocity while holding the Tigers and White Sox to a combined three runs in 11 innings with an 11-to-2 K/BB ratio.

The Twins are without DeSclafani and minor league lefty Brent Headrick, their likely next man up on the rotation depth chart, as he’s on the minor league 60-day IL due to a forearm strain. Further injuries could push them to more strongly consider a starting role for Sands, but Minnesota could also look outside the organization at some point if the depth continues to be tested. Falvey downplayed that possibility to Gleeman, but it’s worth mentioning that the Twins went that route with Dallas Keuchel last year and wound up getting six starts out of him down the stretch.

Who Could The Marlins Trade This Summer?

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A team can’t cement a playoff spot in April, but they can certainly play their way out of the mix. Such is the case with the Marlins. Miami blew a 7-0 lead against the Nationals yesterday to fall to an MLB-worst 6-23 start. Whatever slim hope they had of competing for a playoff spot entering the season is gone. They’re going to be deadline sellers. It’s just a matter of when they start moving players and who will go.

New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix figures to be broadly open to dealing anyone beyond Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara, both of whom are rehabbing Tommy John surgeries anyhow. Much of the roster was assembled before he was hired last November, so he probably doesn’t have a ton of attachment to this group.

Bendix also joined Miami after a long stint with the Rays, a front office that was never afraid to move established players as they navigated payroll limitations. Tampa Bay occasionally made key deals at atypical times on the schedule, including trading Austin Meadows just before Opening Day in 2022 and swapping Willy Adames for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen the previous May.

The Fish are more likely to deal some players than others, of course, so let’s run through a few of the top possibilities:

Trevor Rogers

Rogers was an All-Star and the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021. He was ineffective in 2022 and limited to four starts last season by injury. The 6’5″ southpaw is one of the rare Miami pitchers who hasn’t been impacted by health concerns early this year. Rogers isn’t back to his early-career peak, but he has looked the part of a capable mid-rotation arm through five starts. He owns a 4.10 ERA in 26 1/3 innings.

The former first-rounder’s velocity is sitting around 92 MPH — down from the 94-95 he was pumping as a rookie — and his strikeout rate sits at a personal-low 20.6%. He’s getting ground-balls at a near-52% clip, though, and he’s done a solid job throwing strikes. Even if Rogers might not be the top-end arm he seemed three years ago, he’s an affordable mid-rotation starter who is under arbitration control for two seasons beyond this one. He’s making just $1.53MM this year, as the injuries prevented him from building much of a résumé going into his arb window.

Jesús Luzardo

Entering the season, Luzardo was the left-hander more teams were probably monitoring. He could certainly still be a coveted deadline target, but he’ll need to rebound from a rough couple weeks. Luzardo has been rocked for a 6.58 ERA with elevated walk and home run rates through his first 26 innings. He went on the 15-day injured list late last week with elbow tightness. It’s still not clear how serious that is.

If Luzardo returns to health and looks more like his 2023 self, he’d be one of the top upside plays on the market. He was an upper mid-rotation starter last season, turning in 178 2/3 innings of 3.58 ERA ball. Luzardo’s fastball velocity was sitting in its customary 97 MPH range before he went on the IL and he continued to miss plenty of bats. He and the Fish agreed to a $5.5MM salary to avoid arbitration last winter. Like Rogers, he’s under team control for two more years.

Braxton Garrett

Garrett, 26, was a quietly effective rotation piece a year ago. The control artist turned in his second straight sub-4.00 ERA showing over 159 2/3 frames. He fanned an above-average 23.7% of opponents and kept the ball on the ground nearly half the time batters made contact.

The former #7 overall pick hasn’t pitched in the majors in 2024. He opened the year on the IL with a shoulder impingement. He had a brief setback when he experienced dead arm after a throwing session, but it’s not believed to be serious. He threw three innings in a rehab start last Friday. Garrett is making around the league minimum and will be go through arbitration four times after this season. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, but he misses bats with his offspeed stuff and has a career 3.86 ERA with peripherals to match. The Fish should get plenty of calls on him in July if he’s healthy.

Edward Cabrera

Cabrera rounds out the quartet of potentially desirable rotation pieces. He may be the hardest of the group to evaluate. The former top prospect has huge stuff. His fastball sits in the high-90s. Cabrera can miss bats and generate plenty of grounders with all three of his secondary pitches (changeup, curveball, slider). At 26, it’s still not out of the question that he blossoms into a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yet the Dominican-born righty has never thrown 100 innings in a major league season (although he fell one out shy of that arbitrary cutoff last year). That’s partially because he has a few arm-related injured list stints, including a two-week stay to open this season resulting from a shoulder impingement. He’s also nearly as wild a starter as there is in MLB. Cabrera walked 15.2% of batters faced last year and has issued free passes at a near-14% clip in his big league career.

The Marlins won’t feel obligated to move Cabrera for whatever they can get. He’s under control for four years after this, though he’ll qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter. The Fish considered trade possibilities over the offseason, so he’s unlikely to be off the table, but a team will need to meet a lofty asking price.

Luis Arraez

Of Miami’s hitters, Arraez is the biggest name. A defending two-time batting champ, he’s probably the best pure contact hitter in the sport. His .305 average through his first 129 plate appearances would be the second-lowest of his career. Arraez is going to reach base at a high clip, but he offers minimal power — career-high 10 homers, zero in 2024 — and plays a well below-average second base.

Arraez will still draw interest, but his trade value isn’t as high as one might assume based solely on the batting average. In addition to his defensive limitations, his control window is shrinking. Arraez is playing this season on a $10.6MM salary and will go through the arbitration process once more before getting to free agency. He’d likely earn something in the $13-15MM range next season, which could motivate the Marlins to deal him this summer.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Chisholm hasn’t quite developed into the franchise player that he seemed he might become early in his career. He has been a solid regular with flashes beyond that, though. The switch-hitter connected on 19 homers and stole 22 bases in just 97 games last season, albeit with a modest .304 on-base percentage. He has dramatically increased his walk rate in the early going this year, running a .245/.342/.382 slash through his first 117 plate appearances.

Injuries have been a recurring problem. Chisholm missed a good portion of 2022 to a back issue. He lost chunks of the ’23 campaign with toe and oblique woes. If he stays healthy through this season’s first half, Chisholm could be one of the more intriguing trade candidates of deadline season. He has a tantalizing power/speed combination and can play center field, albeit with differing reviews from public metrics on his glove. Chisholm is making $2.65MM this year and has two more seasons of arbitration control.

Lefty Relief Trio

Each of Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk and Andrew Nardi could be attractive left-handed relief options. They’ve all been hit hard in the early going but have high-octane stuff and performed well last season. The Marlins unsuccessfully auditioned Puk in the rotation but will move him back to relief once he recovers from shoulder fatigue.

Nardi is the least well-known of the group, but he’s controllable for four-plus seasons and won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2026. He has a career strikeout rate north of 30% in 83 2/3 innings. Scott is an impending free agent who has worked the ninth inning for Miami over the last couple seasons. He hasn’t been able to find the strike zone this year, a disappointing start after he issued walks at a career-low 7.8% clip in 2023. Scott is playing this season on a $5.7MM salary. Puk is making $1.8MM and will go through arbitration twice more.

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A few others could draw attention, although they’re probably less likely than the players listed above to move. Many teams would love to land Max Meyer, but it’d take a Godfather offer for the Marlins to move him.

Ryan Weathers leads the team in innings thus far. He’s a former top 10 pick who has pushed his average fastball to 96 MPH and is getting plenty of whiffs on his breaking ball. It’s conceivable teams could have interest, but Weathers has a career 5.67 ERA with subpar strikeout and walk numbers. Anthony Bender has returned from Tommy John surgery to post excellent strikeout and walk rates through his first 11 innings. His ERA is atrocious because of an elevated average on balls in play, but that should normalize well before the deadline.

The Marlins aren’t likely to find a taker for any portion of the Avisaíl García contract. That’d also be the case for Josh Bell unless he has a dramatic turnaround at the plate. He’s hitting .176/.270/.287 and playing on a $16.5MM salary. Neither Nick Fortes nor Christian Bethancourt has contributed anything offensively.

The Fish took a $5MM rebound flier on Tim Anderson over the offseason. That was likely with an eye towards a midseason trade, but he’s out to a .223/.270/.255 start after hitting .245/.286/.296 in his final year with the White Sox. He’ll need to perform significantly better to draw any kind of interest. Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and Jake Burger are low-OBP corner bats. They’d each have modest value if the Marlins wanted to deal them.

Yankees Recall Carlos Narváez For MLB Debut

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The Yankees announced today that outfielder Alex Verdugo has been placed on the paternity list. Catcher Carlos Narváez was recalled in a corresponding move. The backstop will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

Narváez, 25, was initially signed by the Yankees as an amateur out of Venezuela. He has since climbed the rungs of the minor league ladder, going down on strikes a fair bit but also drawing a fair number of walks and launching a few home runs.

He got into 100 games last year between Double-A and Triple-A, stepping to the plate 419 times. He struck out in 25.8% of those trips but also walked in 15.3% of them and hit 12 long balls. That resulted in a combined slash line of .239/.370/.397, good for a wRC+ of 101.

At the end of last year, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked Narváez as the #32 prospect in the club’s system. He noted that the strikeouts will probably become too much of a problem for the backstop to be an impact hitter in the majors, as he’s especially vulnerable to high fastballs. However, Longenhagen gives praise to Narváez for his strength with controlling the running game and “fair” work in terms of receiving and blocking.

The Yanks added Narváez to their 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. They haven’t needed his services at the major league level with Jose Trevino and Austin Wells sharing the catching duties. Narváez has also seen some limited time at the infield corners, which could give him more opportunity to get into a game before Verdugo comes back. He’s currently hitting .211/.376/.342 at Triple-A this year, walking in 18.8% of his plate appearances.

Paternity list stints have a maximum length of three days, though players sometimes get transferred to the restricted list if they need to stay with their families for a bit longer. With Verdugo gone, the Yanks still have plenty of ability to cover the outfield between Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton, Taylor Trammell and Jahmai Jones.

Blue Jays Prospect Brandon Barriera Undergoes Season-Ending Elbow Surgery

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April 29: Barriera underwent a hybrid Tommy John and internal brace procedure, per Nate Heisler of Klutch Baseball on X.

April 27: Brandon Barriera’s 2024 season is over, as TSN’s Scott Mitchell (via X) reports that the Blue Jays pitching prospect will undergo surgery on his left elbow next week.  The type of surgery won’t be known until the procedure is underway and doctors can fully access the damage, so Barriera could be facing a 14-month layoff that comes with Tommy John surgery, or perhaps an internal brace surgery that would allow him to perhaps be ready for Opening Day 2025.

Selected 23rd overall in the 2022 draft, Barriera threw only 20 1/3 innings during the 2023 campaign due to biceps, elbow, and shoulder injuries.  Conditioning problems may have contributed to these health issues, though Keith Law notes that Barriera had “gotten himself in way better shape” heading into spring camp this year.  Between that limited workload and his lone appearance (1 1/3 innings) for A-level Dunedin this season, Barriera has essentially started his pro career with two lost seasons, turning the southpaw from a very promising up-and-coming arm into something of a question mark.

Barriera is still only 20 years old, of course, so there’s plenty of time for him to get on track even if it’ll be a while before he returns to the mound.  Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both ranked Barriera as the fourth-best prospect in Toronto’s farm system, and the second-best pitching prospect in their system after Ricky Tiedemann.

D-backs, Ian Clarkin Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Diamondbacks signed left-hander Ian Clarkin to a minor league contract and assigned him to Triple-A Reno, per the club’s transaction log at MLB.com. The former Yankees first-rounder and top prospect — selected one pick after Aaron Judge — had been pitching in the Mexican League.

Now 29 years old, Clarkin has yet to make his big league debut despite a long run as a prospect of note. Baseball America ranked him as the No. 17 prospect in the 2013 draft and placed him 16th or better in New York’s system in the three years following his selection. The Yankees sent him to the White Sox alongside another former top prospect and first-rounder, outfielder Blake Rutherford, in the 2017 deadline deal that brought Todd Frazier, David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle back to the Bronx. The ChiSox and Cubs passed Clarkin back and forth a few times on waivers early in 2019.

Clarkin posted strong numbers up through High-A but was inconsistent in Double-A and struggled greatly in his lone season of Triple-A ball in 2021 (8.77 ERA, more walks than strikeouts in the Rockies’ system). He spent the 2020 and 2023 seasons pitching on the independent circuit, including 79 1/3 innings for the Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks last year. He’s posted an overall 4.23 ERA in 431 2/3 minor league frames and had allowed three runs in five innings with six strikeouts (23 batters faced) in the Mexican League this year.

Clarkin becomes the second left-handed depth option for the bullpen the D-backs have added in  the past week. Arizona also claimed southpaw Joe Jacques off waivers from the Red Sox. The Snakes currently have three lefties in manager Torey Lovullo’s bullpen: Joe Mantiply, Andrew Saalfrank and Logan Allen.

Red Sox Designate Pablo Reyes For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced Monday morning that they’ve designated infielder Pablo Reyes for assignment. His spot on the roster will go to newly acquired first baseman/outfielder Garrett Cooper, whom the Sox added in a cash deal with the Cubs over the weekend.

Reyes has been with the Sox dating back to last season but is out to a brutal start at the plate, hitting just .183/.234/.217 with a 29.7% strikeout rate in his first 64 plate appearances. It’s a far cry from the .287/.339/.377 slash he posted through 185 trips to the plate with the ’23 Sox, when he punched out in only 11.4% of his turns at the plate. Reyes’ 19 strikeouts on the season are already just two fewer than the 21 he posted in nearly three times as much action last year.

The 30-year-old Reyes has appeared in parts of six big league seasons but never topped last year’s 185 plate appearances. He’s a lifetime .248/.309/.349 hitter in 572 plate appearances between the Pirates, Brewers and Sox. He’s played every position on the diamond with the exception of catcher, including a four-inning cameo on the mound. Reyes has drawn solid ratings at third base, in particular, though his versatility has in a way prevented him from picking up a meaningful sample at any single position; his 289 career frames at the hot corner are the most he’s tallied at any one spot.

Reyes is out of minor league options, so the Sox didn’t have the ability to simply send him down to Triple-A Worcester without first exposing him to waivers. They’ll have a week to trade Reyes, attempt to pass him through outright waivers or release him. He’s previously been outrighted in his career (twice, in fact), which gives him the right to reject a minor league assignment in the event that he does clear waivers.

Submit Your Questions For A Mailbag Episode Of The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the offseason now firmly in the rearview mirror and the trade deadline still months away, the current baseball news is mostly about on-the-field results and injuries.

We’ll use this liminal space to try to answer as many listener questions as possible. If you have a question about the ongoing 2024 season or anything else related to baseball, we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

The Opener: Yankees, Orioles, Yoshida, Royals

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As the 2024 MLB regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1: Series Preview: Yankees @ Orioles

The top two teams in a crowded AL East division are set to clash for the first time this season in a four-game set that starts tonight. The Orioles host the Yankees at Camden Yards starting at 6:35pm local time, when right-hander Grayson Rodriguez (4.45 ERA) will face fellow righty Clarke Schmidt (3.55 ERA). Dean Kremer (4.61 ERA) and Corbin Burnes (2.55 ERA) are set to take the mound opposite Nestor Cortes (3.50 ERA) and Luis Gil (4.01 ERA), respectively, over the next two days. The Orioles have yet to announce who will face lefty Carlos Rodon (2.48 ERA) in the series finale, but right-hander Kyle Bradish (2.83 ERA in 2023) will likely make his season debut that day.

Baltimore sits just one game back of New York entering play, but the Yankees that have been the hotter team of late. New York took two of three from the Brewers in Milwaukee this weekend, while the Orioles lost two of three to the A’s. In particular, the Yankees enjoyed scorching hot weekends from a trio of key sluggers who had struggled so far in 2024: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Anthony Rizzo combined to go 16-for-41 with five homers, one of which was the 300th of Rizzo’s career. Will the Orioles pitching staff, which could be without closer Craig Kimbrel for the time being, be able to cool off the Bronx Bombers?

2. Yoshida exits game with injury:

Red Sox outfielder Masataka Yoshida exited yesterday’s game against the Cubs after jamming his hand on a swing, as noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker. The club had not scheduled imaging on Yoshida’s hand after last night’s game, with Yoshida telling reporters via an interpreter that the current plan is to “just wait and see how it feels” today before determining next steps. If Yoshida were to be forced to take a seat for a few days by the injury, it would be an unfortunate turn of events as the 30-year-old had just begun to heat up after a slow start to the season with a .318/.375/.477 slash line in his last 13 games. Should Yoshida miss time, the club could turn to outfielder Rob Refsnyder or perhaps newly acquired first baseman Garrett Cooper to take the outfielder’s at-bats, which have primarily come as a DH this season.

3. Royals roster move incoming:

The Royals are off to a 17-12 start that has them just 2.5 games back of the Guardians for the AL Central lead. Kansas City’s rotation of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, Alec Marsh, and Brady Singer has combined for a 2.98 ERA that ranks third in the majors. With Marsh having been placed on the injured list last week, however, the club will need to turn to a new arm to take the ball against the Blue Jays in Toronto today.

Per Jaylon T. Thompson of the Kansas City Star, that fresh arm will be right-hander Jonathan Bowlan. Bowlan made his MLB debut last year and has just three innings of big league experience under his belt. He’s impressed this season with a 2.57 ERA and a 25% strikeout rate through four Triple-A starts and will look to continue that momentum in the majors opposite righty Yariel Rodriguez this evening. Bowlan is already on the 40-man roster, but the Royals will need to make an active roster move before tonight’s game to accommodate the addition of the righty.

Astros To Promote Joey Loperfido

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The Astros will call up Joey Loperfido prior to Tuesday’s game against the Guardians, KPRC 2’s Ari Alexander reports (via X).  Loperfido isn’t on Houston’s 40-man roster, so the Astros will have to make at least one roster move to find room for the first baseman/outfielder.

Rumors about Loperfido’s promotion have swirled ever since Spring Training, when the young slugger drew attention with an 1.076 OPS over 41 Grapefruit League plate appearances.  He kept swinging a hot bat through the start of the Triple-A season, taking a .276/.376/.684 slash line through his first 117 PA of the minor league season.  Loperfido has also gone yard 13 times, as he launched his 13th home run of the young season in Triple-A Sugar Land’s 10-5 win today over the Reno Aces.

While such absurd numbers would make any prospect seem like a candidate for their MLB debut, Loperfido’s production has particularly stood out given how little the Astros have received from the first base position.  Jose Abreu is hitting .099/.156/.113 over 77 PA this season, translating to an astonishing -21 wRC+.  Though Abreu also struggled for much of the 2023 season, his rebound near the end of the year and his good showing in the playoffs led to some hope that the veteran had gotten on track, yet Abreu has limped out of the gates with the worst stretch of his career.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored Abreu’s situation, noting that Abreu’s contract (roughly $16.25MM remaining this season and $19.5MM in 2025) has certainly made the Astros wary about sitting him down, or even releasing Abreu entirely.  If Loperfido isn’t going to entirely supplant Abreu, however, Jon Singleton certainly seems like a potential cut given how Singleton is batting only .238/.319/.286 over 47 PA.  Since Singleton and Loperfido are both left-handed hitters, having Loperfido take over as the complementary first option alongside the right-handed hitting Abreu seems like a logical move for Houston.  Trey Cabbage was also on the roster as the 27th man for this weekend’s series with the Rockies in Mexico City, but Cabbage is probably more likely to head back to Triple-A.

A seventh-round pick for the Astros in the 2021 draft, Loperfido (who turns 25 in two weeks) didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, as he posted strong numbers in each of his first two minor league seasons.  He moved up the ladder quickly enough to make his Triple-A debut in 2023, though his .235/.333/.403 slash line in 138 PA with Sugar Land last year didn’t hint at his eye-popping breakout in store for 2024.

Both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked Loperfido sixth on their preseason lists of Houston’s best prospects, noting his raw power potential but also highlighting his possible contributions as more than just a slugging first baseman.  Indeed, Loperfido has spent more time as an outfielder than as a first baseman, with the bulk of his minor league innings coming in center field.  Loperfido could therefore find himself getting some at-bats as a left fielder or center fielder in place of Chas McCormick or Jake Meyers — both are right-handed hitters, and McCormick isn’t producing much at the plate.  Loperfido also brings some good speed to the table, with 64 steals in 79 attempts during his minor league career.

Loperfido’s 30.8% strikeout rate at Triple-A is certainly cause for concern, plus some grain of salt must always be applied to numbers posted in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.  It should also be noted that while Abreu has been a glaring weak spot in the lineup, the Astros are hitting quite well on the whole, as pitching (and injuries within the rotation) has been the much bigger reason behind the team’s unexpectedly slow start.  Houston therefore doesn’t need Loperfido to be an immediate star right away, and frankly, the bar has been set so low by Abreu and Singleton that even average production from Loperfido would represent a nice upgrade.

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