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Lucas Giolito Diagnosed With Partial UCL Tear, Flexor Strain

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March 6: Giolito will receive a second opinion from Dr. Jeff Dugas, Cora said this morning (X link via McCaffrey). Cora conceded that surgery is indeed an option, but no final decisions will be made until the right-hander receives that second opinion.

March 5: Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito experienced discomfort in his right elbow after his most recent throwing session, manager Alex Cora announced Tuesday morning (X link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic). He’ll undergo additional testing, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the initial diagnosis is a partial tear of the right ulnar collateral ligament and a flexor strain. A determination on treatment won’t be made until Giolito receives additional opinions, but season-ending surgery is obviously now on the table.

It’s a brutal blow for the Red Sox, who signed Giolito to a two-year, $38.5MM contract that allows the right-hander to opt out following the 2024 campaign. Assuming additional opinions confirm the team’s initial diagnosis, Giolito’s decision on next year’s $19MM player option will be rendered a foregone conclusion before the season even begins. If he indeed picks up that player option, the team would be granted a $14MM club option for the 2026 season. Giolito could then convert that into a mutual option by pitching 140 innings in 2025.

Giolito, 29, signed his current deal in hopes of putting a rough couple years behind him and reentering the market in a stronger position. From 2022-23, the right-hander logged 346 innings but pitched to an ineffective 4.89 ERA between the White Sox, Angels and Guardians. A spike in Giolito’s home run rate contributed heavily to the downturn in performance, but he maintained a better-than-average 25.5% strikeout rate against a slightly higher-than-average 9% walk rate in that span.

The primary culprit in Giolito’s struggles was a spike in home run rate; metrics like xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.01) felt he was better over the past two seasons than his earned run average would indicate — but also still worse than he was in 2019-21 peak, when he fanned nearly 31% of his opponents against a stronger 8% walk rate.

Now, with Giolito’s entire season in doubt, any chances of rebounding could well be placed on hold for a year or more. At the very least, he’s in for a lengthy IL stint and will be absent to begin the season. That leaves Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock as the likeliest options to open the season in Boston’s rotation. Others on the 40-man roster include Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Cooper Criswell. The Sox have not yet added much in the way of veteran arms on non-roster deals to compete for jobs this spring, and they traded lefty Chris Sale to the Braves in the swap that brought second baseman Vaughn Grissom back to Boston.

A major injury to Giolito will undoubtedly fuel speculation regarding the top remaining arms on the market. Red Sox fans have clamored for Jordan Montgomery for much of the offseason. The team has spoken to him and shown interest at multiple points, including just prior to the start of spring training. The Boston connection for Montgomery is particularly strong, as his wife is doing her medical residency in the city. To this point, ownership and/or the front office have resisted meeting the 31-year-old’s asking price, but pressure to make some kind of move will only increase.

While fellow Boras Corporation clients Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and (reportedly) Blake Snell shifted from seeking long-term deals and instead pursued opt-out laden short-term deals, all indications regarding Montgomery to this point have been that he’s still seeking a long-term deal. The Red Sox will need to weigh that ask while determining whether they want to throw more resources at a team that appears poorly positioned to contend for a postseason spot.

Montgomery wouldn’t cost the Sox a draft pick or international money, as he didn’t receive a qualifying offer, and the Sox are about $35MM from the luxury tax threshold, so Montgomery wouldn’t push them to that point either. Snell did reject a QO and would thus cost the Sox their second-best draft pick and $1MM of space in next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agency. There are, of course, alternative options who’ve also not yet signed. Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger, for instance, are both still available and both performed reasonably well in the majors just last season.

The Opener: Red Sox, Extensions, Free Agency

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As Spring Training continues, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day today:

1. What’s next for the Red Sox?

Fans in Boston received terrible news yesterday, as it was reported that likely Opening Day starter Lucas Giolito is suffering from a partially torn UCL and a flexor strain, a diagnosis that could put him at risk for season-ending surgery before the 2024 campaign even begins. The likely loss of Giolito is a huge blow to the Red Sox rotation, which now figures to feature right-hander Nick Pivetta as its lone veteran arm with youngsters Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Josh Winckowski likely to fill out the rest of the rotation in some combination.

Of course, the club could improve its stock in the rotation by looking to add an arm externally. The Red Sox have been connected to both southpaw Jordan Montgomery in free agency and White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease via trade throughout the offseason, though rumors regarding Cease have died down since camp opened last month. While the addition of either of the aforementioned arms would offer Boston a bona fide front-of-the-rotation arm, other options to shore up the club’s rotation such as Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger are available more affordably and would still benefit the team.

2. Will we see more extensions this spring?

Spring Training tends to offer clubs and players a chance to negotiate extensions, before the grind of the regular season begins but after the heavy lifting of the offseason is already complete. We’ve seen a handful of extensions over the past month, with Bobby Witt Jr. and Jose Altuve both reaching agreements in early February while the likes of Mitch Keller and Zack Wheeler agreed to deals more recently.

Aside from those completed deals, there are still some rumored extension possibilities that have yet to come to fruition: The Astros have been candid about their desire to extend both third baseman Alex Bregman and outfielder Kyle Tucker, though it’s unclear how likely a deal is with either player. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are known to have had talks with both right-hander Brayan Bello and first baseman Triston Casas since camp opened last month. Will deals for any of the aforementioned players, or perhaps even a deal that hasn’t made its way into the rumor mill yet, come together before Opening Day?

3. When will deals come together for remaining mid-tier free agents?

Much of the conversation regarding free agency as of late has been dominated by Montgomery and fellow southpaw Blake Snell, the top remaining free agents on the market after fellow members of the “Boras Four” Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman landed deals in Chicago and San Francisco respectively. With that being said, they’re far from the only players still looking for work. Lorenzen, who is reportedly seeking a two-year deal, and Clevinger also remain on the starting pitching market, while Ryne Stanek remains available out of the bullpen.

On the positional side of things, even more players remain available. Center fielder Michael A. Taylor is reportedly hoping to land a deal in the same ballpark as the one-year, $10.5MM pacts Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader agreed to earlier in the offseason, while J.D. Martinez and Brandon Belt are the likely best hitters remaining on the market. In addition to that trio, the likes of Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, Eddie Rosario and Donovan Solano all remain available on the market after turning in solid performances as regulars last year. With a dozen free agents of note remaining on the market and just three weeks until Opening Day, will all these players find homes before the start of the regular season?

Out Of Options 2024

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Every spring at MLBTR, we publish a list of players who are out of minor league options and cannot be sent to the minor leagues without first clearing outright waivers. Option status is particularly relevant as teams set their rosters prior to Opening Day. A lack of minor league options is often a key reason a certain player will make the roster over another who had a superior spring performance, and it’s a frequent factor in March trades.

The following is a list of all 40-man players throughout the league with fewer than five years of service time — players with more than five years of service can refuse an optional assignment — and no minor league options remaining. We’ve included players who have signed extensions or multi-year deals, even though they’re often less likely to be optioned.

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Twins Notes: Kirilloff, Santana, Buxton

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Not long after the Jorge Polanco trade cleared room in the Twins’ budget, the front office added Carlos Santana on a $5.25MM free agent pact. The veteran offers an alternative at first base to Alex Kirilloff, who started 58 games there a year ago.

Minnesota has stopped short of declaring either player the starting first baseman. However, Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic opined on Monday that Santana is likely to get the bulk of the reps on the strength of his defensive reputation. Manager Rocco Baldelli indeed suggested Tuesday that defense would be a separator in divvying up playing time.

“Whoever’s the better defensive first baseman is going to play more at first base. I don’t know any other way to put that,” Baldelli said (link via Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). “There will be a determination when the time comes, when we put our lineups together. Both are going to play a good amount of first base, but the guy who is doing the best job for us on that side of the ball is the one who’s going to play more.”

Santana should have the edge in that regard. The 14-year big league veteran consistently rates as a quality gloveman. Defensive Runs Saved graded him 11 runs above average in more than 1150 innings a year ago. Statcast rated him as more of a solid than excellent defender, estimating he was two runs above par. Kirilloff, by contrast, rated between five and eight runs below average in only 510 first base innings by those metrics.

That’s not to say that Kirilloff’s path to a regular spot in the lineup is blocked. The left-handed hitter has more offensive upside than Santana brings to the table at this stage of his career. Kirilloff is coming off a .270/.348/.445 slash with 11 homers in 88 games. He hasn’t produced much against lefty pitching but owns a .274/.328/.440 batting line in 549 career plate appearances versus right-handers.

Kirilloff should see a good bit of action at designated hitter even if Santana operates as the primary first baseman. Minnesota also isn’t completely closing the book on Kirilloff as an outfielder. The 26-year-old tells Miller that he has continued taking outfield drills and expects to soon log game action on the grass. Kirilloff came through the minors as a corner outfielder. He hasn’t seen a ton of MLB action out there, logging 64 starts over parts of three seasons. Baldelli penciled him into the starting outfield on just 12 occasions last year.

The increased action at first base reflects both Minnesota’s outfield depth and the questions that evaluators have raised about Kirilloff’s athleticism. He’s certainly an inferior defender to Max Kepler in right field. Projected left fielder Matt Wallner has below-average range, although he has as strong an arm as any outfielder in the game.

Byron Buxton has the ability to help cover for a mediocre defender in left field, assuming he stays healthy. He’s among the sport’s best center fielders at full strength, but right knee issues kept him from logging any defensive work in 2023. The Star-Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale spoke with Buxton and hitting coach David Popkins about the difficulty in even remaining in a DH role with the amount of pain through which he had to play last season.

Buxton spoke about the mental challenge of playing through the injury, which he said frequently tightened up between at-bats and made it difficult to decelerate as a baserunner. The Twins are optimistic that he’ll be able to play center field fairly regularly in 2024, although Buxton’s injury history makes it difficult to bank on him starting 100+ games. Minnesota brought in Manuel Margot to serve as a quality fourth outfielder who can spell Buxton in center field and offers a right-handed complement to Kepler, Wallner and Kirilloff in the corners.

Latest On Michael A. Taylor

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Teams looking for an everyday center fielder in free agency are down to Michael A. Taylor. The 2021 Gold Glove winner is arguably the best unsigned outfielder overall, making it a surprise that he remains on the market into March.

Clearly, teams have yet to meet the asking price set by Taylor and his camp at ALIGND Sports Agency. While the specific ask isn’t known, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that Taylor views himself comparatively to fellow glove-first center fielders Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader. Those players signed one-year pacts for $10.5MM with the Blue Jays and Mets, respectively, earlier in the offseason.

It’s not an unreasonable comparison. Taylor is coming off a better offensive season than Bader had in 2023. He only hit .220 with a .278 on-base percentage, but he slugged a personal-high 21 home runs over 388 plate appearances for the Twins. Bader had a similarly paltry on-base mark but managed just seven homers in 344 trips to the plate between the Yankees and Reds.

Kiermaier’s offensive profile is built far more around contact skills than Taylor’s is. His .265/.322/.419 showing was slightly superior to Taylor’s batting line. By measure of wRC+, Kiermaier was four percentage points better than a league average hitter a season ago. Taylor was four points below par. While that’s not a huge gap, Kiermaier has a multi-year track record of roughly average offensive results. Taylor’s 2023 hitting production was his best in six years.

All three players are easy plus defenders in center field. Kiermaier is among the best defenders of his generation. Statcast graded him 12 runs above average in a little less than 1000 innings last season. Bader rated as +8 runs in just over 750 frames, while Taylor checked in seven runs above par in nearly 1000 innings. All three players have battled injuries and spent at least a minimal amount of time on the IL a year ago. The 29-year-old Bader has a clear age advantage over Kiermaier and Taylor, both of whom are approaching their mid-30s, although that’s not as big a factor on a one-year contract.

It’s easy to see why Taylor would put himself in the same conversation as those other players. That said, it’s difficult to imagine him landing a comparable contract at this point of the offseason. The market generally isn’t kind to middle-tier free agents who remain unsigned into Spring Training. A number of teams have indicated they’re up against the player payroll they’re prepared to carry into the upcoming season.

At points this offseason, Taylor has drawn reported interest from the Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Pirates, Reds, Blue Jays and the incumbent Twins. A handful of those teams instead addressed the outfield in other ways. The Dodgers brought back Enrique Hernández. That signing was in conjunction with a trade shipping Manuel Margot to Minnesota, essentially ending the chance of Taylor returning to the Twin Cities. Toronto retained Kiermaier to play center field.

The Red Sox, Reds, Pirates and Angels could still benefit from a right-handed complement to their projected starting outfield. They’d probably all view Taylor as more of a fourth outfielder than an everyday center fielder, however. San Diego stands as the cleanest fit to offer him regular run in center field. Yet given their organizational payroll constraints, it’s unlikely they’re willing to offer a salary in line with the Kiermaier and Bader deals.

Braves Sign Skye Bolt To Minor League Deal

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The Braves recently signed outfielder Skye Bolt to a minor league contract. He made his Spring Training debut as a defensive replacement in today’s exhibition matchup with the Tigers.

Bolt, 30, is looking to get back to the majors for the first time since 2022. The North Carolina product appeared in parts of three big league campaigns with the two Bay Area franchises between 2019-22. Bolt saw the majority of his action with the A’s in the final of those seasons, hitting .198/.259/.330 over 42 games. He carries a .156/.205/.266 batting line over 187 big league plate appearances overall.

As one would expect, Bolt has turned in better numbers in Triple-A. The switch-hitter owns a .298/.388/.483 slash over four seasons at that level. That has mostly come in favorable hitting environments in the Pacific Coast League. He wasn’t as effective with Milwaukee’s top farm team a year ago, posting a .257/.359/.367 line in 64 contests.

Bolt has above-average speed befitting his name. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions and has generally drawn a decent number of walks in the minors, albeit without much power. It’s very unlikely he snags an Opening Day roster spot, but he’ll add a depth option at Triple-A Gwinnett.

Atlanta’s starting outfield of Jarred Kelenic, Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr. is entrenched, yet their top depth options are light on MLB experience. Forrest Wall and J.P. Martínez, the other outfielders on the 40-man roster, have combined for 32 big league games. The Braves have added a handful of non-roster players to potentially push for a fourth outfield role. Leury García, Jordan Luplow, Eli White, Luis Liberato and Luke Williams are all in big league camp.

Paul Skenes Won’t Make Pirates’ Opening Day Roster

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Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes won’t make the Opening Day roster, with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette relaying that general manager Ben Cherington has already informed the righty. The young hurler will remain in big league camp for the time being but will start the season in the minor leagues.

“I’ve thrown 6 2/3 innings in pro ball,” Skenes said of the situation, per Mackey. “It’s just kind of how it goes. [Pirates general manager Ben Cherington] said it would be unprecedented if I started the year in the big leagues. Not that I don’t think I can do it, but I understand it.”

Though it was a long shot, there was an argument for Skenes cracking the big leagues out of camp this year. The argument against it is simple as he’s still just 21 years old, turning 22 in May, and only just entered the professional ranks last year. But on the other hand, he’s dominated everywhere he’s pitched and has been built up to something close to a starter’s workload.

With Louisiana State last year, Skenes tossed 122 2/3 innings over 19 starts. He posted an earned run average of 1.69 in that time, striking out 45.2% of batters faced while giving out walks at just a 4.3% clip. Those results led the Bucs to take him first overall last year, after which they put him into five minor league games at the Complex League, Single-A and then Double-A. He faced 40 batters overall and struck out 10 while giving out just two walks.

Given the quality and quantity of that work, it wouldn’t have been outlandish to think he could break camp right now and toss 160 innings or so out of the Pittsburgh rotation. That’s especially true when considering the current rotation, with is front by Mitch Keller but has plenty of uncertainty beyond that.

The club added Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales to be veteran stabilizers in the middle or the rotation, but there’s no guarantee they can provide that kind of service. Pérez got bumped from the Rangers’ rotation last year and finished the year with a 4.98 ERA as a starter. Gonzales only made 10 starts and logged 50 innings due to a nerve issue in his left forearm which required surgery. Beyond that, the other options are fairly unproven young guys like Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras or Quinn Priester. No one in that quartet has reached 200 big league innings pitched nor do any of them have an ERA below 4.73.

Despite that potential path to a role for Skenes, the club will keep him in the minor for now. But if he is putting up zeroes in the minors while the results in the majors are lacking, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him up at some point this summer. The club will potentially be getting JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows back midseason, as both underwent Tommy John surgery early in 2023, but Skenes could still seem like one of the five best options in the coming months.

When Skenes does finally get the call, it could have an impact for both him and the club. If he misses the first few weeks of the season, he won’t be able to earn a full year of service time here in 2024, at least not the traditional way. To combat service time manipulation, the current collective bargaining agreement allows a player to earn a full year of service regardless of when they were called up if they have less than 60 days of MLB service coming into the season, placed on at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline and then finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting. Each of those three prospect lists have Skenes in the top 10, so he would certainly qualify if he were called up midseason but with enough time to get into the top two of the ROY voting.

Not getting a full year of service time here in 2024 would have an impact on his trajectory towards free agency and potentially to arbitration as well. Players need six full years of service to become free agents, so Skenes would be slated for the open market after 2029 if he broke camp this year and stayed up for good. If he falls short of one year, then his potential free agency would be pushed back a year to after 2030.

In terms of arbitration, players need three full years for guaranteed qualification but can get in with less. Of the players between two and three years of service each year, the 22% with the most service time get to qualify early. The “Super Two” line oscillates from year to year based on who is in that 22% category. Going back to 2009, the line has gone as high as 2.146 and as low as 2.115, with a full year being 172 days. That means that Skenes has a chance to qualify for arbitration after 2026 even if he isn’t called up until a couple of months into this year.

Navigation Improvements Made To MLBTR Mobile Website

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As you might imagine, as the owner of MLB Trade Rumors, I am a heavy user of the website.  When it comes to website traffic, 80% of ours comes via mobile devices, so I often navigate the site on my phone.  In recent years, I’ve experienced difficulty in getting good results from MLBTR’s search tool, as well as in general navigation.  This year, I set out to fix that.

I started by gathering data on what MLBTR users usually search for, and I found that in the offseason it’s almost always a player name, team name, or an attempt to find free agent-related links.  Within the limited real estate of MLBTR’s mobile web navigation bar, we’ve made it easier to find those things.

Previously, the search icon was not on the home screen; it was instead buried within the “three lines” menu.  We’ve moved that to the main navigation bar in the upper left, signified by the classic magnifying glass icon:

Given the indication that people tend to search for player or team names rather than specific post headlines, we’ve limited the autocomplete to players and teams.  Type a few letters of the player’s name and you’ll see the options:

This allows you to get to the player’s chronological archive quickly and easily, where you’ll see the latest posts on him at the top.  It’s also helpful for difficult-to-spell player names.  Here’s what a player page looks like:

When it comes to navigating to the team archives, I grappled with the best way to do it.  Previously, we had a Teams link in the navigation bar on the mobile website.  In practice, I didn’t think using this link on a phone was all that convenient – especially if you were seeking a team name in the middle or end of the alphabet.  You’d hit Teams and then often do a fair bit of scrolling and then pick out your team from the list of 30.

The new way to get to the team page is to type a few letters of that team name into the search box.  You can start with the city name or the team name.  Usually about three or four letters does the trick:

That’ll bring you to our team archive, with all posts tagged with that club in chronological order:

Though the autocomplete function in the search box gets you directly to player and team archive pages, there may be cases where you have a specific post in mind.  You can still type any phrase into the box and then hit the Search button on your phone to get more algorithmic results rather than our human-curated player and team archives.

I also wanted to solve the issue of finding free agent-related links easily, while keeping some flexibility to curate a few relevant links depending on the time of year.  To accomplish this, the “flame” icon was born.  Tapping that brings you to various “hot” and timely reference links:

We’ll change some of these links at different times of year, for example putting some trade-related links up in July.

In my experience, these changes to the MLBTR mobile website navigation bar have made the site faster and easier to navigate.  If you have any questions or comments, please leave them below.

Padres Sign Brad Miller To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have signed infielder/outfielder Brad Miller to a minor league deal, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The client of ISE Baseball also receives an invite to big league camp.

Miller, 34, is coming off a couple of mostly lost seasons with the Rangers. He made separate trips to the injured list last year due to a right oblique strain and left hamstring strain. He only got into 27 games and hit .214/.328/.339 in that time. 2022 was a similar situation as he got into 81 games and hit just .212/.270/.320, missing time due to right hip issues and a neck strain.

Prior to that, he was coming off a strong three-year run, which is what led to his two-year, $10MM pact in Texas. From 2019 to 2021, he suited up for Cleveland, Philadelphia and St. Louis, hitting 40 home runs in those three seasons, one of which was shortened to 60 games. His 28.3% strikeout rate was a bit high but he also drew walks at an 11.8% clip. His combined .236/.331/.480 slash line over that three-year period translated to a wRC+ of 114, indicating he was 14% above league average.

Defensively, Miller has bounced all over the diamond, having played all four infield spots in his career as well as all three outfield positions. But he has hardly played shortstop since 2016, hasn’t played center at all since 2015 and his last second base appearance was in 2021. He’s probably best suited to the four corner spots, which could still make him a fit for the Padres.

The Friars have a wide open outfield, apart from Fernando Tatis Jr. being in right field. Non-roster invitees like Jackson Merrill, Jakob Marsee, Calvin Mitchell and Óscar Mercado appear to be competing for outfield playing time with guys like Jurickson Profar and José Azocar. On the infield corners, Jake Cronenworth figures to be at first and Manny Machado at third. There’s some uncertainty with the latter since he’s coming back from elbow surgery but he seems on track to be ready by Opening Day.

Infielders Eguy Rosario and Matthew Batten are on the 40-man roster but both have options, as does Azocar. The Padres only have 37 players on their 40-man roster and Tucupita Marcano will likely wind up on the 60-day IL at some point due to a torn ACL that’s going to keep him out until midseason. If the Friars wanted to, they could select someone like Miller to serve in a bench role, even if they also add a couple of those NRIs to fill out the outfield. Meanwhile, the optionable players could be sent to the minors for regular reps. The club also doesn’t have a strict designated hitter on the roster, which opens up plenty of opportunities for someone in this cluster.

Miller is also a lefty hitter with strong platoon splits who could perhaps be utilized in a specialized role. He has slashed .242/.325/.438 against righties in his career for a wRC+ of 109, but just .216/.273/.334 against southpaws for a 67 wRC+. Each of Azocar, Rosario, Batten and Mercado hit from the right side, which could give manager Mike Shildt some opportunities to mix and match as needed. But first, Miller will need to earn himself a spot on the roster after a couple of injury-marred campaigns.

Brown: Astros Not In Market For Additional Starting Pitching

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March 5: Even following today’s announcement that Verlander will open the season on the injured list, Brown doubled down on his comments downplaying a potential rotation addition (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Brown again stated that his club isn’t in the market for starting pitching at this time, pointing France as the likely fifth starter behind Valdez, Javier, Brown and Urquidy. Blanco and prospect Spencer Arrighetti were also listed by Brown as depth options.

March 3: The Astros made a major splash at the back of their bullpen by signing relief ace Josh Hader to a five-year deal back in January, fortifying a late-inning mix that already included veteran closer Ryan Pressly and flamethrowing youngster Bryan Abreu. In the run-up to Spring Training, however, Houston GM Dana Brown indicated that the club hoped to make further additions to the pitching side of its roster before Opening Day, either by adding a reliever to the club’s bullpen mix or perhaps by adding another starter to allow other potential rotation arms to work in relief. That no longer appears to be the plan, as the GM downplayed the likelihood of such an addition coming to fruition in comments made to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) yesterday.

“We might add something later (around the trade deadline), but right now I think our team’s built to win and we’re ready to go,” Brown said, as relayed by Rome. Brown then went on to specifically note that he doesn’t expect the club to sign left-hander Blake Snell, the top free agent remaining on the open market, even as he admitted that he “would love to have him” on board.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros aren’t likely to aggressively pursue a deal with Snell. After all, the club has already entered unprecedented territory this winter when it comes to payroll. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Astros have never entered a season with a projected payroll above their $187MM figure from the 2021 season, but RosterResource projects the club to blow that figure out of the water this year with a whopping $240MM payroll entering the 2024 campaign. Those same projections put Houston at a $254MM payroll for luxury tax purposes, just a hair below the second threshold of $257MM. An addition of Snell’s caliber would surely blow past that number, as would even smaller deals for remaining mid-level free agent arms such as Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

While Brown’s comments suggest that the club is comfortable with its internal options in the rotation, Houston’s depth is already being tested with a month left to go before Opening Day. Both veteran ace Justin Verlander and sophomore right-hander J.P. France have been sidelined to this point in the spring by shoulder issues, leaving the status of bother hurlers in question ahead of Opening Day. Should both righties begin the season on the shelf, the club would likely be left to turn to either Ronel Blanco or Brandon Bielak as their fifth starter behind the established quartet of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, and Jose Urquidy. Blanco made seven starts for the Astros last year, pitching to a 4.74 ERA in 38 innings of work, while Bielak posted a 3.69 ERA in 70 2/3 frames over 13 starts.

The recent comments seem to shut the door on the club making any major additions, though it’s at least plausible that the Astros could look to shore up their bullpen depth with a smaller investment. The best remaining relief arm on the free agent market, veteran right-hander Ryne Stanek, spent the last three seasons in Houston and pitched to a strong 2.90 ERA with a 3.91 FIP during his time with the club, though he’s coming off a shaky platform season that saw him post a 4.09 ERA with a career-worst 23.9% strikeout rate. Other veteran options still available include Brad Boxberger and Mark Melancon, each of whom offer late inning experience and could likely be had on non-roster deals after injury-marred 2023 campaigns.

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