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Latest On Michael A. Taylor

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Teams looking for an everyday center fielder in free agency are down to Michael A. Taylor. The 2021 Gold Glove winner is arguably the best unsigned outfielder overall, making it a surprise that he remains on the market into March.

Clearly, teams have yet to meet the asking price set by Taylor and his camp at ALIGND Sports Agency. While the specific ask isn’t known, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that Taylor views himself comparatively to fellow glove-first center fielders Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader. Those players signed one-year pacts for $10.5MM with the Blue Jays and Mets, respectively, earlier in the offseason.

It’s not an unreasonable comparison. Taylor is coming off a better offensive season than Bader had in 2023. He only hit .220 with a .278 on-base percentage, but he slugged a personal-high 21 home runs over 388 plate appearances for the Twins. Bader had a similarly paltry on-base mark but managed just seven homers in 344 trips to the plate between the Yankees and Reds.

Kiermaier’s offensive profile is built far more around contact skills than Taylor’s is. His .265/.322/.419 showing was slightly superior to Taylor’s batting line. By measure of wRC+, Kiermaier was four percentage points better than a league average hitter a season ago. Taylor was four points below par. While that’s not a huge gap, Kiermaier has a multi-year track record of roughly average offensive results. Taylor’s 2023 hitting production was his best in six years.

All three players are easy plus defenders in center field. Kiermaier is among the best defenders of his generation. Statcast graded him 12 runs above average in a little less than 1000 innings last season. Bader rated as +8 runs in just over 750 frames, while Taylor checked in seven runs above par in nearly 1000 innings. All three players have battled injuries and spent at least a minimal amount of time on the IL a year ago. The 29-year-old Bader has a clear age advantage over Kiermaier and Taylor, both of whom are approaching their mid-30s, although that’s not as big a factor on a one-year contract.

It’s easy to see why Taylor would put himself in the same conversation as those other players. That said, it’s difficult to imagine him landing a comparable contract at this point of the offseason. The market generally isn’t kind to middle-tier free agents who remain unsigned into Spring Training. A number of teams have indicated they’re up against the player payroll they’re prepared to carry into the upcoming season.

At points this offseason, Taylor has drawn reported interest from the Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Pirates, Reds, Blue Jays and the incumbent Twins. A handful of those teams instead addressed the outfield in other ways. The Dodgers brought back Enrique Hernández. That signing was in conjunction with a trade shipping Manuel Margot to Minnesota, essentially ending the chance of Taylor returning to the Twin Cities. Toronto retained Kiermaier to play center field.

The Red Sox, Reds, Pirates and Angels could still benefit from a right-handed complement to their projected starting outfield. They’d probably all view Taylor as more of a fourth outfielder than an everyday center fielder, however. San Diego stands as the cleanest fit to offer him regular run in center field. Yet given their organizational payroll constraints, it’s unlikely they’re willing to offer a salary in line with the Kiermaier and Bader deals.

Braves Sign Skye Bolt To Minor League Deal

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The Braves recently signed outfielder Skye Bolt to a minor league contract. He made his Spring Training debut as a defensive replacement in today’s exhibition matchup with the Tigers.

Bolt, 30, is looking to get back to the majors for the first time since 2022. The North Carolina product appeared in parts of three big league campaigns with the two Bay Area franchises between 2019-22. Bolt saw the majority of his action with the A’s in the final of those seasons, hitting .198/.259/.330 over 42 games. He carries a .156/.205/.266 batting line over 187 big league plate appearances overall.

As one would expect, Bolt has turned in better numbers in Triple-A. The switch-hitter owns a .298/.388/.483 slash over four seasons at that level. That has mostly come in favorable hitting environments in the Pacific Coast League. He wasn’t as effective with Milwaukee’s top farm team a year ago, posting a .257/.359/.367 line in 64 contests.

Bolt has above-average speed befitting his name. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions and has generally drawn a decent number of walks in the minors, albeit without much power. It’s very unlikely he snags an Opening Day roster spot, but he’ll add a depth option at Triple-A Gwinnett.

Atlanta’s starting outfield of Jarred Kelenic, Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr. is entrenched, yet their top depth options are light on MLB experience. Forrest Wall and J.P. Martínez, the other outfielders on the 40-man roster, have combined for 32 big league games. The Braves have added a handful of non-roster players to potentially push for a fourth outfield role. Leury García, Jordan Luplow, Eli White, Luis Liberato and Luke Williams are all in big league camp.

Paul Skenes Won’t Make Pirates’ Opening Day Roster

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Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes won’t make the Opening Day roster, with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette relaying that general manager Ben Cherington has already informed the righty. The young hurler will remain in big league camp for the time being but will start the season in the minor leagues.

“I’ve thrown 6 2/3 innings in pro ball,” Skenes said of the situation, per Mackey. “It’s just kind of how it goes. [Pirates general manager Ben Cherington] said it would be unprecedented if I started the year in the big leagues. Not that I don’t think I can do it, but I understand it.”

Though it was a long shot, there was an argument for Skenes cracking the big leagues out of camp this year. The argument against it is simple as he’s still just 21 years old, turning 22 in May, and only just entered the professional ranks last year. But on the other hand, he’s dominated everywhere he’s pitched and has been built up to something close to a starter’s workload.

With Louisiana State last year, Skenes tossed 122 2/3 innings over 19 starts. He posted an earned run average of 1.69 in that time, striking out 45.2% of batters faced while giving out walks at just a 4.3% clip. Those results led the Bucs to take him first overall last year, after which they put him into five minor league games at the Complex League, Single-A and then Double-A. He faced 40 batters overall and struck out 10 while giving out just two walks.

Given the quality and quantity of that work, it wouldn’t have been outlandish to think he could break camp right now and toss 160 innings or so out of the Pittsburgh rotation. That’s especially true when considering the current rotation, with is front by Mitch Keller but has plenty of uncertainty beyond that.

The club added Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales to be veteran stabilizers in the middle or the rotation, but there’s no guarantee they can provide that kind of service. Pérez got bumped from the Rangers’ rotation last year and finished the year with a 4.98 ERA as a starter. Gonzales only made 10 starts and logged 50 innings due to a nerve issue in his left forearm which required surgery. Beyond that, the other options are fairly unproven young guys like Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras or Quinn Priester. No one in that quartet has reached 200 big league innings pitched nor do any of them have an ERA below 4.73.

Despite that potential path to a role for Skenes, the club will keep him in the minor for now. But if he is putting up zeroes in the minors while the results in the majors are lacking, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him up at some point this summer. The club will potentially be getting JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows back midseason, as both underwent Tommy John surgery early in 2023, but Skenes could still seem like one of the five best options in the coming months.

When Skenes does finally get the call, it could have an impact for both him and the club. If he misses the first few weeks of the season, he won’t be able to earn a full year of service time here in 2024, at least not the traditional way. To combat service time manipulation, the current collective bargaining agreement allows a player to earn a full year of service regardless of when they were called up if they have less than 60 days of MLB service coming into the season, placed on at least two preseason Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline and then finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year balloting. Each of those three prospect lists have Skenes in the top 10, so he would certainly qualify if he were called up midseason but with enough time to get into the top two of the ROY voting.

Not getting a full year of service time here in 2024 would have an impact on his trajectory towards free agency and potentially to arbitration as well. Players need six full years of service to become free agents, so Skenes would be slated for the open market after 2029 if he broke camp this year and stayed up for good. If he falls short of one year, then his potential free agency would be pushed back a year to after 2030.

In terms of arbitration, players need three full years for guaranteed qualification but can get in with less. Of the players between two and three years of service each year, the 22% with the most service time get to qualify early. The “Super Two” line oscillates from year to year based on who is in that 22% category. Going back to 2009, the line has gone as high as 2.146 and as low as 2.115, with a full year being 172 days. That means that Skenes has a chance to qualify for arbitration after 2026 even if he isn’t called up until a couple of months into this year.

Navigation Improvements Made To MLBTR Mobile Website

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As you might imagine, as the owner of MLB Trade Rumors, I am a heavy user of the website.  When it comes to website traffic, 80% of ours comes via mobile devices, so I often navigate the site on my phone.  In recent years, I’ve experienced difficulty in getting good results from MLBTR’s search tool, as well as in general navigation.  This year, I set out to fix that.

I started by gathering data on what MLBTR users usually search for, and I found that in the offseason it’s almost always a player name, team name, or an attempt to find free agent-related links.  Within the limited real estate of MLBTR’s mobile web navigation bar, we’ve made it easier to find those things.

Previously, the search icon was not on the home screen; it was instead buried within the “three lines” menu.  We’ve moved that to the main navigation bar in the upper left, signified by the classic magnifying glass icon:

Given the indication that people tend to search for player or team names rather than specific post headlines, we’ve limited the autocomplete to players and teams.  Type a few letters of the player’s name and you’ll see the options:

This allows you to get to the player’s chronological archive quickly and easily, where you’ll see the latest posts on him at the top.  It’s also helpful for difficult-to-spell player names.  Here’s what a player page looks like:

When it comes to navigating to the team archives, I grappled with the best way to do it.  Previously, we had a Teams link in the navigation bar on the mobile website.  In practice, I didn’t think using this link on a phone was all that convenient – especially if you were seeking a team name in the middle or end of the alphabet.  You’d hit Teams and then often do a fair bit of scrolling and then pick out your team from the list of 30.

The new way to get to the team page is to type a few letters of that team name into the search box.  You can start with the city name or the team name.  Usually about three or four letters does the trick:

That’ll bring you to our team archive, with all posts tagged with that club in chronological order:

Though the autocomplete function in the search box gets you directly to player and team archive pages, there may be cases where you have a specific post in mind.  You can still type any phrase into the box and then hit the Search button on your phone to get more algorithmic results rather than our human-curated player and team archives.

I also wanted to solve the issue of finding free agent-related links easily, while keeping some flexibility to curate a few relevant links depending on the time of year.  To accomplish this, the “flame” icon was born.  Tapping that brings you to various “hot” and timely reference links:

We’ll change some of these links at different times of year, for example putting some trade-related links up in July.

In my experience, these changes to the MLBTR mobile website navigation bar have made the site faster and easier to navigate.  If you have any questions or comments, please leave them below.

Padres Sign Brad Miller To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have signed infielder/outfielder Brad Miller to a minor league deal, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The client of ISE Baseball also receives an invite to big league camp.

Miller, 34, is coming off a couple of mostly lost seasons with the Rangers. He made separate trips to the injured list last year due to a right oblique strain and left hamstring strain. He only got into 27 games and hit .214/.328/.339 in that time. 2022 was a similar situation as he got into 81 games and hit just .212/.270/.320, missing time due to right hip issues and a neck strain.

Prior to that, he was coming off a strong three-year run, which is what led to his two-year, $10MM pact in Texas. From 2019 to 2021, he suited up for Cleveland, Philadelphia and St. Louis, hitting 40 home runs in those three seasons, one of which was shortened to 60 games. His 28.3% strikeout rate was a bit high but he also drew walks at an 11.8% clip. His combined .236/.331/.480 slash line over that three-year period translated to a wRC+ of 114, indicating he was 14% above league average.

Defensively, Miller has bounced all over the diamond, having played all four infield spots in his career as well as all three outfield positions. But he has hardly played shortstop since 2016, hasn’t played center at all since 2015 and his last second base appearance was in 2021. He’s probably best suited to the four corner spots, which could still make him a fit for the Padres.

The Friars have a wide open outfield, apart from Fernando Tatis Jr. being in right field. Non-roster invitees like Jackson Merrill, Jakob Marsee, Calvin Mitchell and Óscar Mercado appear to be competing for outfield playing time with guys like Jurickson Profar and José Azocar. On the infield corners, Jake Cronenworth figures to be at first and Manny Machado at third. There’s some uncertainty with the latter since he’s coming back from elbow surgery but he seems on track to be ready by Opening Day.

Infielders Eguy Rosario and Matthew Batten are on the 40-man roster but both have options, as does Azocar. The Padres only have 37 players on their 40-man roster and Tucupita Marcano will likely wind up on the 60-day IL at some point due to a torn ACL that’s going to keep him out until midseason. If the Friars wanted to, they could select someone like Miller to serve in a bench role, even if they also add a couple of those NRIs to fill out the outfield. Meanwhile, the optionable players could be sent to the minors for regular reps. The club also doesn’t have a strict designated hitter on the roster, which opens up plenty of opportunities for someone in this cluster.

Miller is also a lefty hitter with strong platoon splits who could perhaps be utilized in a specialized role. He has slashed .242/.325/.438 against righties in his career for a wRC+ of 109, but just .216/.273/.334 against southpaws for a 67 wRC+. Each of Azocar, Rosario, Batten and Mercado hit from the right side, which could give manager Mike Shildt some opportunities to mix and match as needed. But first, Miller will need to earn himself a spot on the roster after a couple of injury-marred campaigns.

Brown: Astros Not In Market For Additional Starting Pitching

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March 5: Even following today’s announcement that Verlander will open the season on the injured list, Brown doubled down on his comments downplaying a potential rotation addition (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Brown again stated that his club isn’t in the market for starting pitching at this time, pointing France as the likely fifth starter behind Valdez, Javier, Brown and Urquidy. Blanco and prospect Spencer Arrighetti were also listed by Brown as depth options.

March 3: The Astros made a major splash at the back of their bullpen by signing relief ace Josh Hader to a five-year deal back in January, fortifying a late-inning mix that already included veteran closer Ryan Pressly and flamethrowing youngster Bryan Abreu. In the run-up to Spring Training, however, Houston GM Dana Brown indicated that the club hoped to make further additions to the pitching side of its roster before Opening Day, either by adding a reliever to the club’s bullpen mix or perhaps by adding another starter to allow other potential rotation arms to work in relief. That no longer appears to be the plan, as the GM downplayed the likelihood of such an addition coming to fruition in comments made to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) yesterday.

“We might add something later (around the trade deadline), but right now I think our team’s built to win and we’re ready to go,” Brown said, as relayed by Rome. Brown then went on to specifically note that he doesn’t expect the club to sign left-hander Blake Snell, the top free agent remaining on the open market, even as he admitted that he “would love to have him” on board.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros aren’t likely to aggressively pursue a deal with Snell. After all, the club has already entered unprecedented territory this winter when it comes to payroll. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Astros have never entered a season with a projected payroll above their $187MM figure from the 2021 season, but RosterResource projects the club to blow that figure out of the water this year with a whopping $240MM payroll entering the 2024 campaign. Those same projections put Houston at a $254MM payroll for luxury tax purposes, just a hair below the second threshold of $257MM. An addition of Snell’s caliber would surely blow past that number, as would even smaller deals for remaining mid-level free agent arms such as Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

While Brown’s comments suggest that the club is comfortable with its internal options in the rotation, Houston’s depth is already being tested with a month left to go before Opening Day. Both veteran ace Justin Verlander and sophomore right-hander J.P. France have been sidelined to this point in the spring by shoulder issues, leaving the status of bother hurlers in question ahead of Opening Day. Should both righties begin the season on the shelf, the club would likely be left to turn to either Ronel Blanco or Brandon Bielak as their fifth starter behind the established quartet of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, and Jose Urquidy. Blanco made seven starts for the Astros last year, pitching to a 4.74 ERA in 38 innings of work, while Bielak posted a 3.69 ERA in 70 2/3 frames over 13 starts.

The recent comments seem to shut the door on the club making any major additions, though it’s at least plausible that the Astros could look to shore up their bullpen depth with a smaller investment. The best remaining relief arm on the free agent market, veteran right-hander Ryne Stanek, spent the last three seasons in Houston and pitched to a strong 2.90 ERA with a 3.91 FIP during his time with the club, though he’s coming off a shaky platform season that saw him post a 4.09 ERA with a career-worst 23.9% strikeout rate. Other veteran options still available include Brad Boxberger and Mark Melancon, each of whom offer late inning experience and could likely be had on non-roster deals after injury-marred 2023 campaigns.

Michael Lorenzen Reportedly Seeking Two-Year Deal

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With spring training fully underway, right-hander Michael Lorenzen remains unsigned and in search of a new club for the upcoming 2024 season. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the 32-year-old righty has been searching for a two-year contract and is continuing to focus his efforts on landing a multi-year pact.

After a lengthy run as a setup man in the Reds’ bullpen, Lorenzen has signed one-year deals to work as a starter in each of the past two offseasons. He landed with the Angels on a $6.75MM deal in 2022 and pitched for the Tigers on an $8.5MM deal in 2023. After pitching a career-high 153 innings in 2023 and making his first All-Star team, it seems Lorenzen is prioritizing a multi-year pact so as to avoid yet another swift return to the market. That’s only natural, but at this stage of the winter, it’s far from a lock that one will present itself.

[Related: Let’s find a home for Michael Lorenzen]

Lorenzen started 25 games and made four relief appearances last season. He carried a 4.03 ERA through 87 innings into the All-Star break and was named the Tigers’ lone All-Star representative. His second half began with an otherworldly hot streak, and Lorenzen was flipped from Detroit to Philadelphia along the way, scarcely missing a beat early in his Phillies stint following the trade.

From July 6 through Aug. 9, Lorenzen piled up 40 2/3 innings with a 1.11 ERA and strong 31-to-12 K/BB ratio. He capped off his stellar run with an eight-inning, two-run gem against the Marlins and a 124-pitch no-hitter against the Nationals in his first start at Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park. That dropped his season-long ERA to a tidy 3.23, and while Lorenzen’s pedestrian 19.4% strikeout rate and tiny .244 average on balls in play didn’t fully support the extent of his success, he still looked well on his way to a possible multi-year deal in free agency.

His season took a sharp downturn from there. Perhaps wearing down as he pushed into uncharted territory in terms of workload, Lorenzen was rocked for 27 runs over his next 26 1/3 innings. The Phillies moved him to the bullpen in September, and although he finished with a handful of scoreless relief outings, Lorenzen’s 4.18 ERA was a far sight higher than it was at peak levels. His 17.8% strikeout rate was well shy of the league average, while his 7.5% walk rate and 41% grounder rate were closer to par among starters. But Lorenzen’s lack of whiffs, solid-but-not-elite command and susceptibility to home runs caused fielding-independent metrics to cast a far more bearish outlook on his season overall (4.46 FIP, 4.87 SIERA).

Lorenzen and his camp could perhaps make the claim to teams that he wore down or that his late-season struggles were fluky in nature, but teams could surely make similar claims that his torrid run from mid-July to mid-August doesn’t accurately represent his ability either. A two-year deal with a modest bump in AAV has always seemed plausible, though. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $22MM deal back in November. Just last offseason, we saw Ross Stripling ($25MM), Sean Manaea ($25MM), Drew Smyly ($19MM) and Jordan Lyles ($17MM) all sign two-year guarantees at or north of Lorenzen’s 2023 salary level — the first three with opt-outs included.

It’s plenty understandable if Lorenzen entered free agency thinking such a deal generally represented a floor of sorts for him. Perhaps early in the offseason, such offers would’ve been more attainable. Now, it’s increasingly difficult to convince teams to dole out guaranteed money on multi-year deals, particularly for starting pitchers who might not be able to fully build up in the remaining three and a half weeks of camp.

One thing that could yet help Lorenzen find a deal to his liking is the mounting slate of pitching injuries around the league as camps progress. The Red Sox may have lost their marquee offseason pickup, Lucas Giolito, for the season already. Giants fifth starter Tristan Beck won’t throw for eight weeks, and one of their top depth options is dealing with an elbow sprain. The Cardinals and Astros will begin the season with their would-be Opening Day starters on the injured list. The Blue Jays and Marlins are both dealing with possible injuries to notable starters.

Any one of those issues could cause the market for Lorenzen to pick up steam, but the longer he waits to sign, the more likely it is that he’ll need some minor league starts to ramp up before joining a big league rotation. We’re not necessarily to that point on the schedule just yet, but it’s getting close.

Braxton Garrett Unlikely To Be Ready For Opening Day

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Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett is behind schedule after dealing with some shoulder soreness early in camp and isn’t likely to be ready for Opening Day, manager Skip Schumaker announced this morning (X link via Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Garrett threw a bullpen session today but the delayed start to his throwing progression likely won’t leave him with sufficient time to be built up for the start of the season. “He feels great now, but I think it’s dangerous when you’re trying to push a guy to make an Opening Day roster.” Schumaker said.

Garrett, now 26, has emerged as a key piece of the Miami rotation over the past couple of seasons, something recently explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco. The lefty posted a 3.58 earned run average over 17 starts in 2022, but still found himself sixth on the depth chart going into 2023. Injuries opened a path for him last year and he made the most of that chance, eventually logging 159 2/3 innings over 31 outings with a 3.66 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate and 49.1% ground ball rate.

It sounds as though the concern from the club is minimal and Garrett may just miss the first couple of weeks of the schedule. If that proves to be the case, it likely won’t have a huge impact on the club’s plans but there may also be some ripple effects.

The club’s starting depth has made the Marlins a near-constant subject of trade rumors, though there are reasons why that might now be less likely. They traded Pablo López last offseason and Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery late in 2023, putting him out of commission for the entire 2024 campaign. That left the club with a rotation mix consisting of Garrett, Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers coming into this winter.

The rumors around that group continued but the club didn’t line up a deal that they liked enough to pull the trigger on. Various teams around the league are currently discovering pitcher injuries, which perhaps could have lit up the phone in the Miami front office, but they have at least some concern of their own that could perhaps tamp down their appetite for a deal.

With Garrett likely to miss some time, it perhaps opens a rotation spot for A.J. Puk. He’s been an effective reliever over the past couple of years, including posting a 3.97 ERA with a 32.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 44.2% ground ball rate as a Marlin last year. He’s attempting to return to a rotation role this spring, as he served as an intriguing starting pitching prospect while climbing the minor league ladder.

Spring stats are always to be taken with a grain of salt but Puk has yet to allow a run over his first two outings, tossing five innings with nine strikeouts, three walks and just one hit. He will likely face some kind of workload limit at some point since he has been working as a reliever for a while. He tossed 125 innings the minors in 2017 but then missed all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery and hasn’t hit 70 frames in any season since.

The Marlins also have Max Meyer on hand, though he will also be looking at limitations since he sat out all of 2023 rehabbing from his own Tommy John procedure. Roddery Muñoz and Darren McCaughan are also on the 40-man roster as depth options. If Garrett eventually gets built up and everyone else is healthy, Puk and Rogers have options and could theoretically be sent down for a while to monitor their workloads, as Rogers only tossed 18 innings last year due to biceps and lat injuries.

There are lots of talented options on hand but there’s also a fair amount of questions. The free agent market still features notable pitchers even though the calendar now reads March, so the Fish could reach out if they feel they need to bolster the group. It wouldn’t be realistic to expect a signing of Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery but someone like Michael Lorenzen or Jake Odorizzi is more plausible.

RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at $102MM right now. That would be the highest of the Bruce Sherman era, as he purchased the club in late 2017 and Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists their payroll below nine figures in each season since then.

Perhaps the club has little appetite to add to that figure, as they seemingly made little attempt to retain slugger Jorge Soler. It had been previously reported that the club had some contact with him while he was a free agent but he recently signed with the Giants and contradicted those reports. “We never had communication during the season or after the season, so, I knew I was not coming back,” Soler said, per Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase.

Giants’ Tristan Beck Won’t Throw For Eight Weeks; Sean Hjelle Diagnosed With Elbow Sprain

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The Giants announced this morning that right-hander Tristan Beck underwent successful surgery to repair an aneurysm in his right shoulder. He won’t throw for at least eight weeks. San Francisco also announced that right-hander Sean Hjelle has an elbow sprain and will be reevaluated in two weeks’ time. That represents a further blow to the team’s pitching depth, though Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets that Hjelle’s ulnar collateral ligament is intact. A timetable for his return won’t be known until that reevaluation, however.

It’s already been known that Beck would be facing a long absence after testing late last month found the aneurysm. The Giants placed him on the 60-day injured list this week when opening a roster spot for newly signed Matt Chapman. An eight-week shutdown period would stretch from now until April 30. Beck would then need to slowly ramp up, starting with light throwing on flat ground, to pitching off a mound, to facing live hitters and eventually pitching in minor league rehab games.

That process would require more than a month, in all likelihood, putting a potential return date somewhere in June, at the earliest. Of course, that’s all contingent on avoiding any setbacks and on Beck’s body recovering as hoped. The Giants will surely have updates along the way.

The news on Hjelle likely subtracts another depth option who could’ve stepped up to help fill Beck’s spot early in the season. Hjelle, a towering 6’11” 26-year-old, posted strong numbers in Double-A back in 2021 but has since struggled both as a starter and reliever in Triple-A and in the big leagues. The former second-round pick worked primarily as a starter in Triple-A Sacramento last year, struggling to a 6.00 ERA in 19 starts (plus three relief appearances) in that ultra-hitter-friendly setting. He made another 15 relief appearances with the big league club, posting 29 innings with a similarly disheartening 6.52 earned run average.

Hjelle sports an unsightly 6.17 ERA in 54 MLB innings but his 23.2% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and huge 56% ground-ball rate all portend better results over a larger sample. He’s been plagued by a sky-high .399 average on balls in play despite yielding just an 89 mph average exit velocity. Metrics like FIP (3.89) and SIERA (3.35) feel Hjelle has been far, far better in his limited big league time than his ERA would indicate.

Giants skipper Bob Melvin had already called out Hjelle as someone who could perhaps move into a rotation role to help compensate for the injury to Beck and provide some insurance in the event that right-hander Keaton Winn’s elbow issue flares back up. (Winn was briefly shut down earlier in camp due to a nerve issue but has since resumed throwing without issue.) Instead, it appears quite likely that Hjelle will also open the season on the injured list. A two-week period without throwing will conclude with just over a week to go until Opening Day. Even if Hjelle were able to immediate pitch in games — which seems unlikely — it’s hard to imagine him ramping up to the point where he could be a viable rotation option.

At the moment, the Giants’ rotation consists of Logan Webb, top prospect Kyle Harrison, reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks and the aforementioned Winn. A competition for the fifth spot could include trade acquisition Ethan Small, prospect Kai-Wei Teng (already on the 40-man roster) and perhaps in-house nonroster pitchers like Carson Whisenhunt and Mason Black.

It was a perilously thin group even when all of Winn, Beck and Hjelle looked healthy. The Giants have been banking on this mix to carry them into the middle portion of the season. Alex Cobb will open on the injured list while rehabbing from October hip surgery but could be back within the first couple months of the season. Trade acquisition Robbie Ray is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and will be out until the final third of the season or so. Injuries to Beck and to Hjelle have only further called into question whether such an unproven group can steady the course until the Giants’ more veteran reinforcements arrive.

The Giants have been active in free agency late in the offseason, with signings of Chapman and Jorge Soler both completed after the beginning of spring training. Even with that pair of additions — plus their earlier pickups of Hicks and center fielder Jung Hoo Lee — reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell is reportedly still a consideration. Fellow southpaw Jordan Montgomery is also still on the market, as are lower-tier arms like Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen, Eric Lauer and others.

San Francisco currently projects for a payroll just under $182MM, per RosterResource. Their projected luxury tax ledger currently sits at $231MM — just $6MM or so shy of the first threshold. Signing Snell or Montgomery will assuredly put the team over that line, and Snell would require further forfeitures in the amateur draft and international free agency. The Giants already punted their second-highest pick and $500K of next year’s international bonus pool space to sign Chapman; Snell would require surrendering their third-round pick and an additional $500K of international spending capacity. Both players would also result in the Giants paying a 20% tax for the first $20MM by which the luxury barrier is exceeded, plus a 32% tax on the next $20MM.

It’s possible that even Lorenzen or Clevinger could push the Giants into tax territory, although there are other moves that could be made to counteract that. The signing of Chapman, for instance, could make J.D. Davis and his $6.9MM salary more expendable. If the Giants were able to move Davis and some/all of that salary, they could create as much as $13MM in breathing room between themselves and the $237MM tax line.

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