Archives for October 2024

Once the World Series wraps up, teams and players will have five days to decide on options, opt-outs and qualifying offers. One of the more interesting cases is third baseman Eugenio Suárez. The Diamondbacks can retain him via a $15MM club option or go for a $2MM buyout instead.

There was a time a few months ago when it seemed a lock that the Snakes would take the buyout and let Geno go. But after a torrid second half, it would now be surprising if they didn’t pick up the option.

Suárez has been a very streaky player in his career overall and his lopsided 2024 season was a microcosm of that. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .271/.364/.521 for a wRC+ of 127 with the Reds. That 2019 season saw him hit 49 long balls, but it’s now established that there was a juiced ball that season, making for some wonky home run totals around the league. His strikeout rate ticked up to 28.5% that year after being in the 23-25% range in prior seasons.

The strikeouts continued into subsequent seasons, leading to a rough patch for him. He struck out 29.6% of the time over 2020 and 2021, producing a .199/.293/.440 batting line and 89 wRC+. His was then flipped to the Mariners in a move that was largely viewed as the M’s taking on his salary as a way of acquiring Jesse Winker.

But Suárez went on to have a huge bounceback season in Seattle, hitting 31 home runs in 2022 and slashing .236/.332/.459 for a 132 wRC+. His home run total dipped to 22 last year but his .232/.323/.391 line still led to a 104 wRC+, a bit above average. He was striking out over 30% of the time but still proving to be useful overall. He also improved his glovework while with the Mariners. Defensive Runs Saved still viewed him as a subpar defender at third but his marks in 2022-23 were better than during time in Cincinnati. Outs Above Average had long viewed him around average but gave him a huge +12 grade in 2023.

It was then that the Diamondbacks acquired him, sending pitcher Carlos Vargas and catcher Seby Zavala to the Mariners in November of last year. At that time, Suárez had one guaranteed year left on his contract. He was going to make $11MM in 2024 with the aforementioned club option was there as well.

His ’24 campaign eventually mirrored the up-and-down nature of his career overall. He was brutal in the first half, to the point that there were rumors by early June of the club hoping for a trade. A few days later, manager Torey Lovullo admitted that Suárez was going to lose some playing time to infielder Blaze Alexander. At the end of June, Suárez was sitting on a line of .196/.279/.312, a 29.2% strikeout rate and 66 wRC+.

But the calendar flipped to July and Suárez caught fire, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored a month ago. In the final three months of the season, Suárez struck out at a 25.8% clip, still above league average but an improvement for him. He hit 24 home runs and slashed .312/.357/.617 for a 162 wRC+. He was one of the ten best qualified hitters in the majors in that stretch.

Though he’s done it with plenty of strikeouts and some rough patches, Suárez has managed to be a solid contributor for three straight seasons now. FanGraphs has credited him with between 3.5 and 4.3 wins above replacement in each of the three most recent campaigns. Despite his awful first half in 2024, he still got his fWAR total to 3.8 by season’s end.

A net $13MM decision on a player who can produce like that should be an easy call, but there’s at least an argument for the Diamondbacks going in a different direction. Given the up-and-down nature of Suárez’s career and most recent season, perhaps the Snakes would like to jump off the rollercoaster while they have a chance. Suárez is now 33 years old, turning 34 next July, and there will have to come a time where he can’t keep walking this tightrope.

The Diamondbacks could prefer to turn third base over to someone else within the organization. That someone was Alexander earlier this year but he slumped as Suárez surged and ended up with a .247/.321/.343 line and 88 wRC+ in 2024. He also struck out at a Suárezian 30.7% rate in 51 Triple-A games while producing league-average offense at that level, making him a risky bet as an everyday MLB third baseman next year.

There’s also Jordan Lawlar, who is considered one of the top prospects in the league. He has mostly played shortstop in his career but has dabbled at third base lately, perhaps due to the Snakes having Geraldo Perdomo at short. Lawlar has climbed the minor league ladder and accumulated a small amount of major league playing time, so perhaps they could let him take over the hot corner.

However, that was also the case a year ago. Lawlar reached the majors late in 2023 but struggled badly. He hit .129/.206/.129 in his first 14 big league games. The Diamondbacks clearly weren’t ready to hand him a major league job, which is why they went out and traded for Suárez.

In 2024, Lawlar could have perhaps earned the gig while Suárez was struggling but injuries got in the way. Lawlar ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb during spring training, requiring surgery. That kept him out of action until May, but then hamstring injuries held him back in the summer. He only played 23 minor league games this year around those injury issues and didn’t play in the majors.

That leaves the Snakes in the same position with Lawlar as they were one year ago. He is surely still viewed as a key part of their future but hasn’t yet proven himself in the majors. One year ago, the club decided they needed a more established option at third and went with Suárez.

Perhaps they will decide to take the same approach in 2025, having Suárez at third as a placeholder for Lawlar’s eventual arrival. They could look to non-Suárez options for that job if they want, but the free agent market doesn’t have an answer for them. Of the available third basemen, Alex Bregman is the clear top option. After Bregman, the top options for the hot corner are more bench/utility types like Paul DeJong, Enrique Hernández and Gio Urshela. On the trade market, the Cardinals might make Nolan Arenado available in their reset year but he has a full no-trade clause, complicating that situation.

The Diamondbacks won’t be the most logical landing spot for Bregman if they view Lawlar as their future third baseman. Perhaps they want Lawlar to supplant Perdomo at short, with the latter moving to second base and bumping Ketel Marte into a fairly regular designated hitter. Even so, they don’t usually win the bidding on top free agents so it’s unlikely Bregman would be part of such a plan.

That weak market for third baseman could give Suárez extra appeal as a trade candidate, so perhaps the Snakes will consider making him available, either before or after picking up the option. Clubs with borderline options often look into making deals as the decision moment arrives. Last November, the Brewers traded Mark Canha to the Tigers a few days before his option decision was due, with Detroit picking up the option a few days after acquiring him.

Surely there will be some club that misses out on Bregman and looks for backup plans, which could lead to them fielding some calls on Suárez. But the tepid market cuts both ways, as the Diamondbacks would then be limited in what they could do to replace Suárez, meaning they would be putting a lot of faith in Lawlar or Alexander stepping up and taking the job.

There are arguments for each path. Suárez might be the most straightforward answer at third base for the next year, giving appeal to simply sticking with him. But on the other hand, cutting ties from a risky and streaky player who is entering his mid-30s also has appeal, as they were trying to trade him or bench him as of a few months ago and that money could be redirected to another part of the roster. Perhaps the trade market could help the club find an upgrade while also saving a few bucks for other moves.

What do you think the Snakes should do? Have your say in the poll below!