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Enmanuel De Jesus Signs With KBO’s KT Wiz

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Left-hander Enmanuel De Jesus has signed with the KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization, per a club announcement. As noted by Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, De Jesus is set to make $1MM in 2025, including a $200K signing bonus.

De Jesus is actually quite familiar with the KBO League after signing with the Kiwoom Heroes last December. The southpaw enjoyed a solid season for the Heroes last year as he pitched to a 3.68 ERA in 171 1/3 innings of work across 30 starts. He struck out 24.5% of opponents while walking just 6%, though his 22 home runs allowed held down his overall production. Even so, De Jesus clearly showed enough in his first season overseas to earn himself another contract ahead of his age-28 campaign.

A native of Venezuela, De Jesus signed with the Red Sox as an international amateur and made his pro debut back in 2014. The lefty pitched primarily out of the rotation during his time in the minors with Boston but in 2021 saw his role shifted to a more flexible one where he split time between the rotation and bullpen as he reached the upper levels of the minors. He made one start for the club at Triple-A before electing minor league free agency that autumn and latching on with the Giants on a minor league deal. He didn’t reach the big leagues during his year in San Francisco, as he struggled somewhat with the club’s Sacramento affiliate in 35 appearances (19 starts).

That led him to sign a fresh minor league deal with the Marlins during the 2022-23 offseason. His time at the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Jacksonville was somewhat lackluster, as he pitched to a 4.78 ERA in 84 2/3 frames. That didn’t stop the Marlins from giving De Jesus his first crack at big league action, however. The lefty made two appearances with Miami in September, though both left much to be desired. Overall, he surrendered eight runs on nine hits, four walks, and three hit batters while striking out five across 6 1/3 innings of work. That disastrous start to De Jesus’s big league career led the Marlins to designate him for assignment not long after, and he once again elected to test the open market.

That, of course, led him to the KBO League, where he’s now revitalized his career. As De Jesus is just entering his age-28 season, it remains well within the realm of possibility that the lefty could attempt to make a stateside comeback at some point down the line, as KBO alum like Merrill Kelly and Erick Fedde have done successfully in recent years. In the meantime, however, he’ll look to replicate the success he had with the Heroes last year with KT in 2025.

Quick Hits: Snell, Orioles, Brash, Cubs

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The Orioles had “legitimate interest” in southpaw Blake Snell before he landed with the Dodgers on a five-year deal that became official earlier today, per a report from Roch Kubatko of MASN. Kubatko notes, however, that it’s unclear how advanced talks between Baltimore and Snell’s camp became before he settled on Los Angeles. Previous reporting indicated that the Orioles could get involved in the Snell sweepstakes, but Kubatko’s report is the first confirming Baltimore’s interest.

As the club looks to either reunite with right-hander Corbin Burnes or replace his production at the top of their rotation following his departure for free agency earlier this month, it’s hardly a surprise to hear that the club took a hard look at Snell while he was available. The two-time Cy Young award winner has been even better than Burnes from a run prevention perspective over the past three years, with a 2.82 ERA and 2.98 FIP in 412 innings. Burnes, meanwhile, lags behind in rate stats with a 3.08 ERA and 3.49 FIP, but his 590 innings of work dwarf Snell in terms of volume. That volume figures to be particularly attractive to an Orioles club that has serious health question marks surrounding a number of its starters, including Kyle Bradish as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery that figures to keep him out of action for at least the first half of 2025.

While Burnes seems likely to remain the Orioles’s top choice in free agency this winter, they’ve also been connected to southpaws Max Fried and Garrett Crochet in free agency and via trade respectively. It seems as though they’re also looking at mid-rotation arms as well, however, as they were recently linked to veteran righty Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi projects to be much less expensive than Burnes and Fried in free agency this winter, but that affordability comes with a much less impactful track record as the 34-year-old has a solid but unremarkable 3.75 ERA and 3.63 FIP across the past five seasons. The Orioles are quite familiar with Eovaldi, of course, as he spent seven seasons in the AL East with the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox from 2015 to 2022.

More tidbits from around the baseball world…

  • Mariners fans got an encouraging update on the status of right-hander Matt Brash recently, as Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reported earlier this week that the right-hander is ahead of schedule as he rehabs from his early May Tommy John surgery. Per Jude, the Mariners are “optimistic” that he could return to the club’s bullpen by the end of April this coming season, just under a year after he first went under the knife. Brash’s return would surely be a major boost for Seattle, as he established himself as one of the most exciting young arms in the club’s arsenal during a breakout 2023 campaign. After being moved to the bullpen partway through the 2022 season, Brash’s first full campaign as a reliever saw him lead the majors with 78 appearances while posting an excellent 3.06 ERA with an even better 2.26 FIP. He struck out an eye-popping 34.7% of batters faced that year, and if he can post numbers anything like that in 2025 he’ll be a phenomenal complement to closer Andres Munoz at the back of the Mariners bullpen next year.
  • The Cubs have yet to announce their finalized coaching staff for the 2025 season, but Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reported earlier this week that at least one more vacancy has been filled. After assistant pitching coach Daniel Moskos departed the organization to become the Marlins’ pitching coach, the club is promoting internally to replace Moskos by hiring Casey Jacobson. Jacobson has been in the Cubs organization since October 2019 and has spent the past two years as the senior coordinator of pitching development for the club in the minor leagues. Now, he’ll get the opportunity to work on a big league coaching staff for the first time in his career with a number of young arms such as Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, and Porter Hodge expected to play roles for Chicago next year.

Dodgers Sign Blake Snell To Five-Year Deal

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The Dodgers continue to load up, as they announced their five-year contract with left-hander Blake Snell Saturday afternoon. The deal, which is pending a physical, comes with a $182MM guarantee but reportedly includes $65MM in deferrals ($13MM per year) that’ll reduce the net present value to the $160-165MM range. Snell, a client of the Boras Corporation, receives a $52MM signing bonus and limited no-trade protection, while the deal includes a $5MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. The contract does not contain any opt-out provisions and covers Snell’s age 32-36 seasons.

It’s the offseason’s biggest move to date and represents a much quicker resolution than Snell’s previous trip to the market. The star southpaw was coming off a Cy Young campaign last winter. The long-term deal he sought didn’t materialize, leading to an extended free agent stay. Snell went unsigned into March before joining the Giants on a two-year deal that guaranteed him $62MM and, more importantly, allowed him to opt out after the first season.

Snell had a dismal start to the season. He allowed more than a run per inning over his first six appearances. He landed on the injured list twice in the first three months while battling groin discomfort. As recently as the middle of June, it looked like a near-lock that Snell would bypass the chance to return to free agency.

That all changed as soon as he returned from his second IL stint. By the end of the season, there was no doubt he’d pass on the remaining $30MM on his pact with San Francisco. Snell was the best pitcher in baseball down the stretch. Over his final 14 starts, he turned in a 1.23 earned run average while holding opponents to a .123/.211/.171 batting line that looked like a throwback to the days when pitchers hit.

Snell struck out more than 38% of batters faced over that run. He had five double-digit strikeout performances and fanned at least eight hitters in 10 outings. Snell had the best two-start run of his career right around the trade deadline. He struck out 15 over six scoreless innings against the Rockies on July 27 before no-hitting the Reds with 11 punchouts on August 2.

The overall numbers were still weighed down to some extent by his terrible first two months. He wrapped up the year with a 3.12 ERA and a 34.7% strikeout rate over 104 innings spanning 20 starts. That’s a strong season but didn’t earn him a single Cy Young vote. The overall platform year was less impressive than the 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball he posted during his ’23 campaign in San Diego. Snell finished the season looking every bit as dominant as he’d been during his Cy Young years, though.

It seems the Dodgers are attributing the first two months to some combination of an abbreviated Spring Training and the injuries. While this year was the most extreme example, Snell has been a slow starter throughout his career. He has a 3.95 ERA and 28.4% strikeout rate in the first half of his nine big league seasons. The ERA plummets to 2.39 while he has raised his strikeout percentage above 32% after the All-Star Break.

The main knock has been his lack of consistent durability. Snell has reached the 180-inning threshold on two occasions — his 2018 Cy Young season with the Rays and his ’23 award-winning campaign. Outside those seasons, Snell has topped out in the 125-130 inning range.

That’s not a concern for the Dodgers, who have shown they’re far more interested in chasing upside than bulk. Los Angeles acquired and extended Tyler Glasnow last offseason even though he’d never topped 120 MLB innings in a season. The Dodgers will give Shohei Ohtani another chance to pitch coming off his second significant elbow surgery. They’re almost certainly going to reunite with Clayton Kershaw. They’ve graduated a number of talented pitchers from the farm system but seen a lot of them go down to injuries.

It’s an approach geared heavily toward the postseason. The Dodgers prioritize pitchers who profile as potential Game 1 starters. They’re very willing to assume injury risk while chasing that ceiling. That left them woefully short on starting pitching in 2023, resulting in a sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks in the Division Series. The injuries mounted again this fall, but they had just enough in the form of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler to patch together an October rotation. With a star-studded lineup, that was sufficient to lift their second trophy in five years.

Snell arguably fits that mold as well as any pitcher in baseball. Among pitchers with at least 200 innings over the past two years, only Reynaldo López and Tarik Skubal have a lower ERA than his 2.57 mark. Snell’s 32.7% strikeout rate is second, trailing only Glasnow by a fraction of a percentage point. No one has a higher swinging strike rate.

The Dodgers have four pitchers who could start the first game of a playoff series. Snell, Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow are each capable of providing ace-caliber production on a rate basis. It’s unlikely all four will be healthy come playoff time, but the Dodgers have no shortage of talented options behind them. Kershaw figures to be back in the rotation mix once he re-signs, while Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and prospect Nick Frasso are returning from major surgeries. Bobby Miller is looking to rebound from a terrible sophomore season after turning in a 3.76 ERA across 22 starts as a rookie. Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski are capable depth arms.

That’s before considering the possibility of further acquisitions. The Dodgers will surely make a push for NPB ace Roki Sasaki, who’d arguably be the fifth starter if he went to L.A. Even if Sasaki signs elsewhere, the Dodgers could pursue Garrett Crochet on the offseason trade market and/or continue adding starting pitching at the deadline.

Of course, the ability to stockpile this kind of rotation talent is a reflection of the Dodgers’ financial might. Even if other front offices share their general approach to valuing upside over durability, few ownership groups are willing to match L.A.’s spending. The Dodgers had generally shied away from pitching splashes under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, but that has changed over the past calendar year. This is their third nine-figure pitching investment since last offseason (fourth including Ohtani). They signed Yamamoto for $325MM and extended Glasnow on a deal that included $110MM in new money.

MLBTR ranked Snell as the #2 starting pitcher in the class and predicted a five-year, $160MM contract. The deal’s actual value lands right around there. The specific NPV won’t be clear until the deferral structure is revealed. The expected $32-33MM luxury tax hit indicates the deal will have a net present value in the $160-165MM range. That’d be the second-biggest luxury tax hit on L.A.’s books, trailing only the approximate $46.1MM CBT number on Ohtani’s heavily deferred $700MM contract.

In any case, the deal is likely to push the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax figure north of $300MM. They’ll almost certainly land in the fourth and final tier of penalization, which begins at $301MM. The Dodgers are subject to the highest tier of escalation penalties for paying the tax in at least three straight seasons. The Snell deal itself will cost the Dodgers something in the range of $25-30MM in taxes by vaulting them from the middle of the second penalization tier to the start of the highest tax bracket. Future spending will be taxed at the maximum 110% clip.

It’s a major commitment but one the Dodgers are well-positioned to make. They’re coming off the revenue bump associated with a World Series win. More importantly, the structure of Ohtani’s contract allows the Dodgers to continue stockpiling talent. While the Ohtani deal was not an end-around the luxury tax, there’s a huge benefit from a raw payroll perspective. Paying the NL MVP a $2MM salary for the next nine seasons is a big reason they’re able to continue taking on huge money in the short term.

Snell slotted alongside Corbin Burnes and ahead of Max Fried as the top starters in this year’s class. In addition to fitting the Dodgers’ general preference for high-ceiling arms, Snell came with the benefit of not costing draft compensation. He’s the only of the top three starters who wasn’t issued a qualifying offer. Snell had received the QO during his first free agent trip, so the Giants could not make the offer this time around. Burnes and Fried each rejected a qualifying offer and would’ve cost the Dodgers their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft and $1MM from their ’26 bonus pool for international amateurs.

Burnes and Fried become the clear #1-2 options for the other teams seeking top-flight starting pitching. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported this evening that the Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles were also in the Snell bidding. They’ve all been tied to top-of-the-market starting pitchers — Boston especially — and should remain active on that front in the weeks to come.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported the Dodgers and Snell had a five-year deal, shortly after the pitcher revealed on Instagram that he was joining L.A. Jeff Passan and Jorge Castillo of ESPN first reported the $182MM guarantee. Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic reported that the deal contained deferrals that would drop the net present value to the $32-33MM range annually. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times was first with the $52MM signing bonus, while Feinsand had the limited no-trade protection. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported the absence of an opt-out clause. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the presence of an assignment bonus, which Harris relayed at $5MM. Heyman first reported the exact breakdown of the deferrals.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Giants Interested In Corbin Burnes

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The Giants have already been linked to some prominent free agents this winter, and it appears as though Corbin Burnes is another name on the club’s list of targets.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that the Giants “are believed to have significant interest in Burnes,” and thus San Francisco joins the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, and Burnes’ former team the Orioles as clubs known to be pursuing the right-hander to some degree.

MLBTR projects Burnes to land a seven-year, $200MM deal as the top pitcher on the free agent market, and signing the hurler at such a price would be a fascinating move for a Giants club that is reportedly looking to reduce payroll.  The Giants’ Opening Day payroll last season was roughly $208.1MM (as per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) and they currently have around $154.8MM on the books for 2025 according to RosterResource’s calculations.  Trading any of Mike Yastrzemski, Camilo Doval, LaMonte Wade Jr., Taylor Rogers or Tyler Rogers would free up some more money, but as it stands right now, there’s room for San Francisco to ink Burnes for something in the ballpark of a $28.5MM average annual value and still have space for more additions before reaching the 2024 payroll number.

The Giants also haven’t necessarily been acting like a team that is planning on limited spending.  San Francisco has shown interest in two of the offseason’s bigger-name free agents in Willy Adames and now Burnes, plus the Giants had at least a check-in on Juan Soto’s market.  Ha-Seong Kim and Tomoyuki Sugano are two other notables on the team’s radar, among less-pricey options.  And, of course, the Giants already made a big spending splurge before free agency even opened by keeping Matt Chapman off the market with a six-year, $151MM extension.

Buster Posey was reportedly heavily involved in the Chapman negotiations even before becoming the team’s new president of baseball operations, and those efforts to retain a prominent star seemingly indicated that Posey’s front office was prepared to take a more aggressive stance in trying to land top-shelf talent.  Signing a Burnes or an Adames would finally put to rest the narrative that the organization is unable to attract star free agents, though it remains to be seen if these forays into the top of the 2024-25 free agent market are anything more than due diligence, if Giants ownership does want to limit spending.

Burnes has some West Coast ties, as he hails from Bakersfield, California and he played college ball at Saint Mary’s College of California in Moraga (about 40 minutes away from San Francisco).  From a purely on-field perspective, there’s also a natural fit — Burnes would step right into Blake Snell’s shoes as the new ace, teaming with Logan Webb to become one of the game’s better one-two rotation punches.  Kyle Harrison and Robbie Ray would each move a slot down in the rotation order, and San Francisco would gain some flexibility in deciding what to do with the fifth starter’s job.  Any of Landen Roupp, Hayden Birdsong, Mason Black, Keaton Winn, or top prospect Carson Whisenhunt could compete for the job in Spring Training, or Jordan Hicks could be given another shot at a starting role if the Giants don’t want to just keep him in the bullpen.

Since San Francisco exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season, they would pay an additional penalty for signing Burnes or any free agent that rejected a qualifying offer.  The Giants would have to give up $1MM of funds from their international signing bonus pool, and also their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.  The club already gave up two picks (their second- and third-rounders) in the 2024 draft to sign Snell and Chapman last winter, as both players rejected qualifying offers before entering free agency.

NPB’s Seibu Lions Sign Emmanuel Ramirez

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The Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball announced (X link) that they have signed right-hander Emmanuel Ramirez for the 2025 season.  Ramirez hit the open market earlier this month after he was released by the Blue Jays.

2024 marked Ramirez’s twelfth season in pro ball, and the 30-year-old’s long road to the majors finally reached its destination when he appeared in 15 games out of the Marlins’ bullpen.  Ramirez posted a 6.97 ERA in his first 20 2/3 innings of big league work, but with a much more respectable 3.83 SIERA in that small sample size, as he was hampered by an unusually low 54% strand rate.

The righty did allow three homers during his brief time in the majors, and keeping the ball in the park has been a consistent issue for Ramirez since the 2019 season when he was still a member of the Padres farm system.  Ramirez played in San Diego’s organization from 2013-19, and after the pandemic canceled the 2020 minor league season, he has since bounced around for some minor league work with the Braves, Yankees, Marlins, and Blue Jays.  The 2023 campaign saw Ramirez out of affiliated baseball altogether, as he pitched in the Mexican League.

Over 101 career Triple-A innings, Ramirez has a garish 7.22 ERA due in large part to 28 home runs allowed.  He did improve on his career record with the Marlins’ Triple-A affiliate last season, as Ramirez limited the damage to five home runs in 40 2/3 innings while posting a 3.76 ERA, 30.5% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate.  This was enough for Ramirez to earn his MLB debut, but as part of the Marlins’ ever-churning roster mix, he found himself designated for assignment in September.  Toronto claimed the right-hander on waivers but Ramirez didn’t see any big league action during his brief time with the Jays.

The 30-year-old Ramirez now heads overseas for a new opportunity with the Lions, and potentially a return to starting pitching.  Ramirez has mostly worked as a reliever or swingman throughout his career, but did start 16 of his 17 games in the Mexican League, so he does have some recent rotation experience.

NPB’s Chunichi Dragons Sign Jason Vosler

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The Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Professional Baseball have agreed to a deal with infielder Jason Vosler for the 2025 season, according to multiple reports out of Japan.  Vosler elected minor league free agency at the end of the 2024 Major League campaign, which he spent as a member of the Mariners organization.

The majority of Vosler’s time with Seattle was spent at Triple-A Tacoma, where he hit .303/.371/.573 and 31 homers over 524 plate appearances for the Rainiers.  Despite these impressive numbers, Vosler didn’t receive much playing time at the MLB level, as he only appeared in 10 games with the Mariners (hitting a much more modest .179/.233/.286 in 30 PA) in late July and early August.  Seattle designated Vosler for assignment in September and then outrighted him off the 40-man roster.

Originally a 16th-round pick for the Cubs in the 2014 draft, Vosler broke into the big leagues with San Francisco in 2021, and his MLB resume consists of 107 total games with the Giants, Reds, and Mariners over the last four seasons.  He had a strong .265/.342/.469 slash line in 111 PA with the Giants in 2022, as the platoon-heavy team gave the left-handed hitting Vosler a lot of looks against right-handed pitching.  That burst of productivity was relatively short-lived, however, and Vosler has hit .207/.274/.395 in 288 PA against Major League pitching on the whole.

Vosler played mostly third base in his two seasons with the Giants and was largely a first baseman in his one year in Cincinnati.  He has also made a handful of appearances at both corner outfield positions and both middle infield positions, and the 2024 season saw Vosler primarily work as a first baseman and right fielder in Tacoma.

It remains to be seen where Vosler will line up for the Dragons, but his versatility gives the NPB team some flexibility in deciding how they’ll utilize the 31-year-old.  Since Vosler would’ve had to settle for another minor league contract with a North American team, the move to Japan will land him more guaranteed money and a new chapter in his 11-year pro career.

Dodgers Extend Tommy Edman

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The Dodgers and superutility man Tommy Edman have agreed to a five-year $74MM extension that runs from 2025 to 2029 and contains a club option for the 2030 season, the team has announced. The option for 2030 is worth $13MM and comes with a $3MM buyout. Edman will receive a $17MM signing bonus, and $25MM of the extension’s total value will be deferred and paid out over a span of ten years, starting five years after the deal is complete. Since Edman was already under contract for $9.5MM in 2025, the new deal is effectively a four-year extension worth $64.5MM in new money. Edman is represented by agent Jonathan Weiss.

Los Angeles was reportedly in the midst of “preliminary” discussions regarding an extension with Edman’s camp last week, and those talks have now come to fruition. It took the Dodgers only 53 regular-season games and 16 postseason games to decide that Edman was a player they wanted on the field over the long term, as the 29-year-old has already made a big impact since being acquired at the trade deadline.

The three-team, eight-player trade that brought Edman from the Cardinals and Michael Kopech from the White Sox proved to be critical to the Dodgers’ World Series title. At the time of the deal, Edman hadn’t appeared in a big league game following setbacks related to wrist surgery he underwent during the 2023 offseason. While he ultimately didn’t make his Dodgers debut until August 19, the switch-hitter made an immediate impression with the club as he seamlessly shifted between center field and shortstop down the stretch and into the postseason, all while hitting a respectable .237/.294/.417 (98 wRC+) in the regular season. In the playoffs, Edman went a level higher and hit .328/.354/.508 over 67 postseason plate appearances, and was named MVP of the NLCS.

By keeping Edman in the fold long-term, the Dodgers will retain a flexible player who can play all over the diamond and shift between the infield and outfield with minimal issues based on the needs of the club. That’s an archetype of player the club has coveted in recent years, as evidenced by their commitment to Chris Taylor and frequent deals with Enrique Hernandez. While Hernandez is currently a free agent and Taylor does not figure to be a regular fixture in the club’s lineup for 2025, Edman is joined by Mookie Betts as a player who offers the Dodgers plenty of flexibility in their lineup construction. A six-time Gold Glove winner in right field, Betts has in recent seasons begun to play an increasing amount of second base and even shortstop, and the club seemingly plans to play him on the infield dirt again in 2025.

With Betts, Gavin Lux, and Miguel Rojas poised to handle the middle infield for the Dodgers next year, that could leave Edman to patrol center field for the Dodgers on a regular basis next year. It’s a position he only picked up on a regular basis in 2023, but he’s been undeniably effective since moving there: he posted +1 Outs Above Average at the position in just 188 innings with the Dodgers this year after reaching an excellent +5 mark in 330 innings in center for the Cardinals in 2023. If he can maintain that level of defensive prowess at the position over a full season, Edman’s league average bat should make him a well above average regular overall for the Dodgers in 2025.

It’s already been a busy offseason for the Dodgers, as today’s Edman extension pairs with their blockbuster five-year deal with lefty Blake Snell earlier this week. With room to improve in the outfielder corners, holes to fill in the bullpen, and longtime franchise face Clayton Kershaw as of yet unsigned, there figures to be plenty more on president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman’s to-do list this winter. Having Edman’s plus defensive ability locked into center field for the foreseeable future could make the club even more comfortable pursuing offensive upgrades in the outfield corners. They’ve already been linked to corner bats without much defensive prowess such as Teoscar Hernandez and even Juan Soto, both of whom are rumored targets for L.A. this winter and would surely appreciate being flanked by a center fielder of Edman’s caliber.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the extension and the contract terms.  Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link) had the specifics on the deferred money.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Max Kepler

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At the start of the offseason, MLBTR took a look at the Top 50 Free Agents for this offseason. There were a handful of players that we considered for the list but who just missed, getting relegated to the Honorable Mentions section. One of those was Max Kepler.

Kepler, 32 in February, is a guy who does a lot of things well but doesn’t really stand out in any one particular area. On offense, he has a bit of pop but not too much. He did hit 36 home runs in 2019, but in hindsight, he may have been one of the beneficiaries of the juiced ball season. His career high apart from that is 24. His strikeout rate usually finishes somewhere in the vicinity of 20%, with a career rate of 18.6%. League average is usually in the 22-23% range in this era of baseball. His 9.7% walk rate is also a bit better than par, which is often 8-9%.

Put that all together and Kepler has a .237/.318/.429 career batting line and 102 wRC+, indicating he’s been 2% better than league average overall. He’s been a bit better over the past six seasons, with a .240/.320/.436 line and 107 wRC+. He could perhaps get those numbers up if shielded from lefties more often, as he has hit .243/.326/.452 against righties in his career for a 111 wRC+, compared to a .221/.292/.363 line and 78 wRC+ against lefties.

Defensively, his contributions have been quite strong. In over 7,000 right field innings, he has accrued 48 Defensive Runs Saved and 57 Outs Above Average. From 2016 to the present, he’s actually the MLB leader in Outs Above Average in right field with 57, just ahead of Mookie Betts and his 54. DRS likes Betts far more, giving him 129 for that same time frame, but Kepler is fourth behind Betts, Aaron Judge and Jason Heyward.

Kepler also has over 1,000 innings in center field with positive ratings there as well. No club is going to sign him as a primary center fielder now, given his age and that he hasn’t played there since 2022, but perhaps some teams would consider him an emergency option there.

These various factors combine to make a guy who doesn’t overwhelm but also rarely disappoints. FanGraphs has never given him more than 3.9 wins above replacement in a season, which was his aforementioned 36-homer season. Otherwise, his career high is 2.8 fWAR. But he has nine straight seasons of being worth at least 1.0 fWAR, with seven of those 1.5 or higher, six worth at least 1.8 and five worth at least 2 wins.

What’s working against Kepler is that he just wrapped up a poor walk year. His missed time due to issues in both of his knees, getting into just 105 games and hitting only eight home runs. His 5.5% walk rate was a career worst by a few percentage points. His still racked up four OAA but DRS had him at exactly league average. Due to that rough platform, the MLBTR staff felt Kepler would be limited to a one-year deal in the $6-10MM range.

What could work for Kepler is that the market isn’t overflowing with his combination of skills. Looking at the lefty-swinging free agents, Juan Soto is obviously miles above the field. Switch-hitters Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar are both coming off good years at the plate but both are considered poor defenders. Joc Pederson is a lefty who crushes the ball but he is also bad in the field and was limited strictly to designated hitter duties in 2024. Hyeseong Kim is expected to be a light-hitting utility guy at the MLB level. Michael Conforto is perhaps the closest free agent to Kepler on the market, though slightly inverted. Conforto’s offense and defense have both been close to league average in recent years, but with his bat slightly more attractive than his glove.

For clubs looking for a lefty-swinger who can play the field without destroying the lineup, there aren’t too many options. On top of that, Kepler shouldn’t cost too much. His 2024 was rough but the year prior saw him hit 24 home runs and slash .260/.332/.484 for a 123 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. He could perhaps appeal to contenders or rebuilding clubs that would hope for him to bounce back and turn himself into a trade candidate. Teams like the Mets, Mariners, Blue Jays, Padres, Pirates, Rockies, Marlins and others are possible landing spots.

Braves Sign Connor Gillispie To Major League Deal

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The Braves announced that they have signed right-hander Connor Gillispie to a one-year, non-guaranteed contract. Financial terms were not disclosed. They have multiple openings on their 40-man roster and won’t need to make a corresponding move. Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link) reported the deal prior to the official announcement.

Gillispie, 27, just made his major league debut in 2024. Though he was drafted by the Orioles in 2019 and was with them through the 2023 season, the Guardians nabbed him in the minor league phase of last year’s Rule 5 draft. Cleveland selected him to the big league roster in August and he tossed eight innings for them down the stretch, allowing two earned runs. Last week, the Guardians added four players to their roster to protect them from this year’s Rule 5, with Gillispie designated for assignment to open a spot.

He was later non-tendered and became a free agent without being exposed to waivers, with Atlanta quickly offering him a roster spot to get him off the market. The brief major league debut wasn’t much to go on, so Atlanta has presumably been enticed by his minor league work. Gillispie tossed 113 1/3 Triple-A innings in a swing role this year, making 15 starts and 12 relief appearances. He allowed 4.05 earned runs per nine innings, striking out 25% of opponents against a 10.1% walk rate while surrendering 22 home runs.

That’s roughly similar to the work he did in the Orioles’ system. From 2021 to 2023, he tossed 292 2/3 innings in the minors, starting 50 of his 73 appearances. He had a 4.15 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate in that time while allowing 48 long balls.

Perhaps Atlanta will try to move Gillispie to the bullpen on a more permanent basis, as he posted a 4.68 ERA as a starter this year but a 2.63 mark in relief. However it plays out, Gillispie still has options and just a few days of service time, meaning he can theoretically be cheaply retained well into the future if he continues to hang on to his roster spot. Atlanta’s pitching staff just lost Max Fried, Charlie Morton, A.J. Minter, Jesse Chavez and John Brebbia to free agency, while Joe Jiménez recently underwent knee surgery and could miss the entire 2025 season.

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