Latest On Shota Imanaga’s Market
Shota Imanaga is among the more intriguing starting pitchers still on the free agent market. The Japanese left-hander became available to MLB teams on November 27, when he was formally posted by the Yokohama BayStars.
That opened a 45-day window for Imanaga to sign with a major league club. He’ll need to ink a contract with an MLB team by January 11 if he’s to make the jump to North America this offseason. With eight days to go, it’s little surprise Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Imanaga’s market will gain steam this week. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported around Christmas the southpaw was planning a trip to meet with interested teams shortly after the New Year.
The Red Sox, Giants, Mets and Cubs are among the teams that have been connected to Imanaga since his posting window opened. In mid-December, Jon Heyman of the New York Post also listed the Yankees as a team that was keeping an eye on Imanaga as a fallback option if they missed on Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
However, Heyman suggested in an appearance on Bleacher Report this afternoon (X link) that the Yankees weren’t enamored with the southpaw. Imanaga allowed 17 home runs in 148 innings a season ago, the second-most in Japan’s top league. New York’s front office seemingly has concerns about how well he’d profile in a park as hitter-friendly as Yankee Stadium.
Despite the home run concerns, the 30-year-old is going to do quite well financially. Imanaga led NPB with 174 strikeouts while issuing only 24 walks (a meager 4% rate). Some evaluators project him as a mid-rotation starter. Passan reiterated this morning that many executives feel he’ll land a contract in excess of $100MM. That’d be well above the five-year, $75MM pact secured by Kodai Senga last winter even though Senga was arguably coming off a better platform showing.
Senga had allowed just seven homers with a 27.5% strikeout rate and a sparkling 1.94 ERA in 2022. Imanaga had a slightly superior strikeout percentage (29.2%) and allowed 2.80 earned runs per nine last year. Senga was also entering his age-30 season. Unlike Imanaga, he was a true free agent, so the Mets weren’t required to send any compensation to his NPB club. Any team that signs Imanaga would owe the BayStars a fee valued at 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending.
That said, it’s possible teams harbored reservations about Senga’s health that they won’t have regarding Imanaga. The Mets reportedly expressed some trepidation with his elbow during their physical. That obviously didn’t scuttle the deal, but it could’ve factored into his earning potential.
Imanaga may also benefit from the success Senga had in his first MLB campaign. The righty finished runner-up in NL Rookie of the Year balloting after posting a 2.98 ERA across 166 1/3 innings. That Senga looked like more than a mid-rotation starter in his first MLB season could give some clubs added confidence in projecting Imanaga’s ability to handle big league hitters with a fairly similar projection.
Reds Sign Justin Bruihl To Minor League Deal
The Reds announced that they have signed left-hander Justin Bruihl to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league camp.
Bruihl, 27 in June, made his major league debut with the Dodgers in 2021 and served as a frequently-optioned depth arm for that club until a few months ago. Through the end of July 2023, he had made 65 appearances for Los Angeles with a solid 3.65 earned run average. His 7.6% walk rate was fairly strong and his 44.7% ground ball rate around average, but his 15.6% strikeout rate in that time was quite low. Some good luck may have kept runs from crossing the plate, as his .263 batting average on balls in play was on the low side, and ERA estimators like his 4.48 FIP and 4.61 SIERA were less impressive than his actual ERA.
He was designated for assignment as the club needed some roster spots after acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox. He was flipped to the Rockies for cash but then struggled badly with his new club, allowing six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings over seven appearances. He was designated for assignment again in late August and passed through waivers unclaimed, eventually reaching free agency at season’s end.
The Reds have Sam Moll and Alex Young as southpaws slated for work in the big league bullpen but Bruihl will give them some experienced non-roster depth. If Bruihl can earn his way onto the roster at any point, he still has an option year remaining, meaning he could be sent back down to the minors without being exposed to waivers again.
Padres Announce 2024 Coaching Staff, Do Not Plan To Hire Bench Coach
The Padres announced the coaching staff that will be working under manager Mike Shildt in 2024. Much of the staff includes coaches returning from last year’s club or previously-reported hires. In terms of new information from today’s announcement, Tim Leiper has been hired to serve as third base coach, as well as infield and base running instructor. Mike McCoy and Pat O’Sullivan were promoted from within the organization to serve as assistant hitting coaches in the major leagues. Ryan Barba has also been promoted from within, in his case taking on the title of major league field coordinator.
Notably absent from the announcement was a bench coach and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the club does not plan to have a traditional bench coach this year. Instead, the bench coach duties will be divided between pitching coach Ruben Niebla, catching coach and game strategy assistant Brian Esposito, as well as Barba and McCoy.
Leiper, 57, was a first base coach with the Blue Jays from 2014 to 2018 but more recently has been working with the Giants in a player development role. He has also coached for Canadian teams in the Olympics and in the World Baseball Classic.
McCoy, 42, played in 170 major league games from 2009 to 2012, suiting up for the Rockies and Blue Jays. He’s been working as a coach in the Padres’ minor league system for the past eight years. O’Sullivan, 46, spent several years in the minors as a player and has also been coaching in the minors with the Padres for the past six years. Barba, 39, also played in the minor leagues before transitioning to coaching, having worked in the minors with the Padres for the past two years. All three will now get bumped up to the big league staff.
Red Sox Designate Mauricio Llovera For Assignment
The Red Sox officially announced their deal with right-hander Lucas Giolito, with fellow righty Mauricio Llovera designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Llovera, 28 in April, was just acquired from the Giants in a cash deal in July. He went on to toss 29 2/3 innings over 25 appearances after coming to Boston, with a 5.46 earned run average in that time. He had spent time with the Phillies and Giants and now has 59 innings of MLB experience with a 5.80 ERA.
He has fared much better in the minors, with a 2.82 ERA at the Triple-A level in 92 2/3 innings over the past three years. He has struck out 25.9% of Triple-A hitters faced while giving out walks to 8.8% of them. It’s also perhaps worth pointing out that a decent chunk of that came in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League while he was in the Giants’ system.
The Sox will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers, though he would be eligible to elect free agency in the latter scenario since he has a previous career outright. His strong Triple-A results could lead to another club putting in a claim but Llovera is out of options, which will limit his appeal as a depth arm.
Red Sox Sign Lucas Giolito
The Red Sox are taking on a flier on Lucas Giolito, announcing to today that they have signed the right-hander. It is reportedly a two-year, $38.5MM guarantee that allows the CAA client to opt out after the first season. Giolito will collect an $18MM salary next year and would receive a $1MM buyout if he exercises the opt-out. His ’25 salary is worth $19MM.
If he doesn’t opt out next winter, a conditional option kicks in covering the 2026 campaign. Were Giolito to throw fewer than 140 innings in 2025, the Sox would have a $14MM club option. If he reaches or tops 140 frames, he’d convert that provision to a $19MM mutual option. Regardless of the option value, there’d be a $1.5MM buyout. The deal also contains $1MM in performance bonuses in each of the next two seasons.
It’s a modified pillow contract for the 29-year-old. That reflects a dismal final few months of last season. Giolito looked on track for a nine-figure deal early in the summer. Over his first 21 starts with the White Sox, he carried a 3.79 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of batters faced. Chicago’s fall out of contention made him one of the top starters available at the deadline.
A trade sending Giolito alongside reliever Reynaldo López to the Angels looked like a boost to his market value. Joining a fringe contender gave him an outside shot at a playoff berth. More meaningfully for his free agency, it took the qualifying offer off the table, as players who change teams midseason can’t be issued the QO.
That’s not how things played out. Giolito was one of the worst pitchers in MLB from the deadline onwards. He made only six starts for the Halos before they placed him on waivers, dumping the remainder of his salary after the team fell from contention to help limbo underneath the luxury tax line. Giolito was hit hard for both Los Angeles and the Guardians, who snagged him off the waiver wire at the end of August.
Over his final 12 appearances, he was tagged for a 6.96 ERA through 63 1/3 innings. He was staggeringly prone to the longball, allowing 21 homers (nearly one in every three innings) over that stretch. His walk rate also spiked. He handed out free passes to nearly 11% of opponents after issuing walks at a manageable 8.3% clip in Chicago.
Short of a major injury, it’d be hard to draw up a more frustrating final two months before free agency. That said, there’s a lot in his career résumé that made him arguably the top reclamation target in the rotation class. Giolito turned in upper mid-rotation results between 2019-21, combining for a 3.47 ERA with an excellent 30.7% strikeout percentage despite the hitter-friendly nature of Chicago’s Guaranteed Rate Field.
He has allowed nearly five earned runs per nine in each of the past two seasons, albeit for different reasons. His 4.90 mark in 2022 was attributable largely to a .340 average on balls in play, by far the highest rate of his career. That dropped to .274 last season, and his early-season results again painted the picture of a solid #3 starter. Then came the late-season homer barrage that left him with a 4.88 ERA at year’s end.
The longball has always been a bit of a problem for Giolito, but his second-half home run rate is unsustainably high. Boston is betting on positive regression in that department, hoping that’ll result in mid-rotation results. While Giolito’s whiffs are down from his 2019-21 peak, he still misses bats at an above-average level. Opposing hitters have swung through 12.2% of his offerings in each of the last two years, which tops the 10.8% league mark for starting pitchers. His fastball sits around 93 MPH and he misses a decent number of bats with both his changeup and slider.
Giolito’s performance has varied over the past few seasons. His durability has not. The 6’6″ hurler has taken the ball almost every fifth day for the last six years. He hasn’t had an injured list stint longer than two weeks at any point in his MLB career. He hasn’t had any arm-related absences as a big leaguer. Giolito has started 29 or more games in each of the past five full schedules and took the full slate of 12 rotation turns during the shortened season. Only Aaron Nola, Gerrit Cole, José Berríos and Patrick Corbin have started more games over that stretch. He’s eighth in the majors in innings pitched since 2018.
A source of volume innings is a sensible addition to a talented but volatile Boston pitching staff. Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford are among the in-house options for the Opening Day rotation. Sale has battled various injuries over the past few seasons. Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock and Crawford have all worked out of the bullpen at times. Aside from Crawford, that group has generally found more success in long relief than out of the rotation. Bello’s rotation spot isn’t in jeopardy, but his production dipped at the end of his first full major league season.
That made adding a starter an offseason priority for chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. The Sox were on the periphery of the Yoshinobu Yamamoto market before he signed with the Dodgers. They’d been tied to Jordan Montgomery as well, although recent reporting suggested they were pivoting towards the second tier. Giolito becomes Breslow’s first significant free agent acquisition as Boston’s front office leader. The Sox could still explore the rotation market — they’ve recently been tied to NPB left-hander Shota Imanaga and old friend James Paxton — but this signing may lead them to turn their main focus to another area of need like second base.
The contract falls in line with MLBTR’s prediction of two years and $44MM from the start of the offseason, when we ranked him this winter’s #17 free agent. The two-year guarantee with an opt-out after the first season has become more commonplace in recent years for priority rebound candidates. It affords the player more security than would a straight one-year pact while allowing him to get back to the market after one season if he bounces back.
Giolito turns 30 in July, so he’d be well-positioned for a lofty multi-year pact next winter if he gets on track. Since he was ineligible for the qualifying offer, the signing doesn’t cost Boston any draft compensation. If he pitches well enough to opt out a year from now, the Red Sox would likely make him the QO, allowing them to recoup a draft choice if he only spends one year in Massachusetts.
The Red Sox’s 2024 payroll projection now sits around $187MM, according to Roster Resource. They’re just shy of $200MM from a luxury tax perspective, keeping them $37MM below next year’s lowest threshold. Boston opened last season with a player payroll in the $181MM range after topping $206MM the prior season. They did not exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2023.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Red Sox were signing Giolito to a two-year, $38.5MM guarantee with an opt-out; Passan was also first with the salary structure and the 2026 option specifics. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported the $1MM in annual incentives and specified that the buyout applied regardless of the option scenario.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Ross Atkins Discusses Current State Of Blue Jays’ Roster
Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins spoke to the media today as the club introduced recent signees Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Those comments were relayed by reporters including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportnet (X links), Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link) and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com (X links).
“We feel really good about the team that we have,” Atkins said, while acknowledging that further moves could still be forthcoming. “I don’t think we’ll add three players. I think, most likely, that it’s closer to one.” The forthcoming addition would “most likely be in the outfield or DH category, but we’re not limited to that.” When asked if their third baseman was already on the roster, he said that “We feel really good about the team that we have. Between [Santiago] Espinal, [Cavan] Biggio and Kiner-Falefa, we have opportunities to deploy different lineups and different players playing third base potentially.” Further moves could change the role for Kiner-Falefa but “There could be a pathway for him to get a lot of third base at-bats the way we’re currently constructed.”
All of this would seem to suggest that their likelihood of re-signing Matt Chapman is currently low, though some caveats apply. While Atkins suggested they are more focused on an outfield/DH addition, he did at least leave the door open by saying they are “not limited to that.” It’s also possible that this is a negotiating tactic, downplaying their interest in order to improve their leverage in contract talks.
If it does come to pass that Kiner-Falefa replaces Chapman in getting the bulk of the playing time at the hot corner, that would count as a notable downgrade for the club. Both are excellent defenders but IKF has a career batting line of just .261/.314/.346, which translates to a wRC+ of 81. Chapman, meanwhile, has hit .240/.329/.461 in his career for a wRC+ of 118. Kiner-Falefa could make up for that gap somewhat with his speed, having stolen 56 bases over the past three years, but Chapman is obviously the superior player overall. Kiner-Falefa has a career tally of 3.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs, a figure that Chapman has topped in a single season on four occasions.
It seems the club is focused on run prevention, as both Kiner-Falefa and Kiermaier are defensive specialists, while hoping for greater offense from their incumbent players. “We feel like last year was just a blip in terms of run-scoring,” Atkins said today, per Matheson. Lineup regulars like George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk all had relative down years at the plate in 2023 and it seems like the club is expecting that group bouncing back to make up for the loss of Chapman’s bat.
If this is an honest assessment of the club’s current makeup and not mere posturing, it’s a bold gambit for the club to take. The offense was a bit underwhelming in 2023 and the lineup has since lost Chapman, Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifield. The club seemed focused on upgrading the lineup all winter, having been connected to big bats like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger and others. While Ohtani and Soto are off the board, Bellinger is still available, as are some other known targets. The club has been connected to DH-type players like Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley, Jorge Soler, Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Joey Votto and Justin Turner. It seems at least one addition is still forthcoming but the Jays could be placing a lot of faith in a return to form from the aforementioned quartet.
It’s also possible that some internal improvements could come from elsewhere. Davis Schneider had a red hot debut in 2023 but cooled later in the year. He still finished with a batting line of .276/.404/.603 in his first 141 major league plate appearances, translating to a wRC+ of 176. He surely won’t be able to maintain that, but even some regression could perhaps see him bolster the lineup over a full season.
The club also got encouraging minor league performances, to varying degrees, from players like Spencer Horwitz, Damiano Palmegiani, Orelvis Martinez, Ernie Clement, Leo Jimenez, Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes. All of those players have either made their major league debut already or have reached Triple-A, making them plausible contributors to the 2024 club. A strong step forward from one or two guys in that group could quickly cut into IKF’s playing time. “I know the off-season isn’t done,” Kiner-Falefa said today, per Davidi. “I know are still going to be moves. I’m just ready to play everywhere.”
The club is clearly not done and it’s perhaps best to reserve judgement until later in the offseason, but it currently looks a bit odd. The Jays clearly set their sights high and it seemed as recently as a few weeks ago that they were committed to making a big splash to upgrade the lineup but now appear to have made a significant shift in how they are approaching their 2024 roster construction.
On another note, Atkins relayed that the Jays have added Matt Hague to their big league coaching staff as assistant hitting coach, per Nicholson-Smith. Hague played in 43 big league games between the Pirates and Blue Jays. He last appeared in the majors in 2015 but continued toiling away in the minors through 2018. For the past four years, he has been serving as a hitting coach in the minor leagues of the Jays’ system but will now get a chance to join a major league staff.
Brewers Acquire Bryan Hudson From Dodgers
12:20pm: The Dodgers have announced the deal, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, with the Brewers sending lefty Justin Chambers and a player to be named later in return. Chambers is just 18 years old, having been selected in the 20th round of the 2023 draft. He didn’t make an appearance in affiliated ball after that draft selection.
12:05pm: The Brewers are acquiring left-hander Bryan Hudson from the Dodgers, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. The lefty was designated for assignment two weeks ago. DFA limbo is normally capped at one week but that clock is paused for the week between Christmas and New Year’s. It’s unclear what the Dodgers are receiving in exchange. Milwaukee’s 40-man roster count is up to 39.
Hudson, 27 in May, made his major league debut last year with 8 2/3 innings for the Dodgers. He allowed seven earned runs in that time, leading to an unsightly 7.27 ERA, though that’s obviously a miniscule sample size. He spent most of the season in Triple-A, tossing 55 2/3 innings with 2.43 ERA. He struck out 35.7% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 10.8% clip and keeping 46.7% of balls in play on the ground.
Grounders have consistently been a part of his game, going all the way back to his Rookie ball days. Those strikeouts are a fairly new development, however, having shot up in the past two years. He also struck out 29.7% of batters faced in 2022, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A while in the Cubs organization.
The ability to both strike hitters out and keep the ball on the ground when they do make contact is enticing and appears to have caught the attention of the Brewers. Hudson still has a couple of option years remaining, so he can serve as a depth piece for the bullpen in Milwaukee. Their southpaw relief corps is currently headlined by Hoby Milner, with Ethan Small and Clayton Andrews also on the roster, though Hudson will now jump into that group as well.
Diamondbacks To Sign Kevin Newman To Minor League Deal
10:10am: It’s a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite, per Steve Gilbert of MLB.com.
8:59am: The Diamondbacks and infielder Kevin Newman are in agreement on a deal, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The specifics of the deal are not yet known.
Newman, 30, was a first-round pick by the Pirates in the 2015 draft and made his debut in Pittsburgh back in 2018 after being called up in late August. Newman appeared in 31 games for the club down the stretch but struggled badly in 97 trips to the plate, slashing just .209/.247/.231 during that time. Fortunately, Newman’s second taste of big league action went much better as the infielder posted the best season of his career in 2019. While acting as Pittsburgh’s regular shortstop, Newman slashed a solid .308/.353/.446 (109 wRC+) in 531 trips to the plate while striking out at a clip of just 11.7%.
Newman’s success did not last, however, as his offense cratered during the shortened 2020 season and his struggles at the plate continued into the 2021 season. While the Pirates stuck with Newman as their regular shortstop, he hit just .226/.268/.302 in a combined 726 trips to the plate across those two seasons. That production was good for a wRC+ of 52 that was 48% worse than league average and represents the worst slash line in the majors during that time among all regulars (min. 700 plate appearances). That weak production and a groin injury left Newman supplanted at shortstop by Oneil Cruz early in the 2022 season. Upon returning from injury in July and moving to second base, Newman provided the Pirates with decent production in the second half, slashing .279/.318/.371 (91 wRC+) in 257 trips to the plate from July 8 onward. Still, that improved production didn’t stop the Pirates from dealing Newman to Cincinnati last November in exchange for right-hander Dauri Moreta.
Joining the Reds ahead of the 2023 campaign left Newman to move into a part-time role as the club’s wave of young infielders including Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, and Elly De La Cruz took on regular roles throughout the season. Newman performed decently in his new role as a utility player, spending time at all four infield positions while slashing .253/.311/.364 (78 wRC+) in 253 trips to the plate, though his season was eventually cut short in mid-August by an oblique strain. The Reds then released Newman in late September, at which point he hit the open market.
The addition of Newman offers Arizona a high-contact bat capable of playing anywhere on the infield dirt. While his overall offensive profile leaves something to be desired, Newman’s ability to avoid strikeouts gives him value as a pinch-hitting option off the bench. Just 19 players with at least 200 plate appearances last season posted a strikeout rate lower than Newman’s 13.4% figure, and his career strikeout rate of 12% ranks sixth among active players with at least 1500 plate appearances since the start of 2018 season. That places him in rarefied air alongside the likes of Jeff McNeil, David Fletcher, and Yuli Gurriel.
Newman figures to continue in a utility role with the club. Though the details of his contract with the reigning NL champions are not yet available, Newman appears likely to battle with fellow utilityman Jace Peterson and infielder Emmanuel Rivera for a spot on the club’s bench this spring. Newman is the only member of that trio capable of playing shortstop, a fact that could give him a leg up even in spite of his relatively meager offensive production as he would likely serve as the club’s primary back-up to Gerlado Perdomo in the event that top prospect Jordan Lawler begins the season at Triple-A.
The Opener: Go, Blue Jays, Jensen
As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things worth keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Go, Padres nearing deal?
It was reported yesterday evening that right-hander Woo Suk Go of the Korea Baseball Organization’s LG Twins was nearing a deal with the Padres. According to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, Go reportedly took a flight to San Diego overnight to finalize the deal with the Padres. Go’s posting window expires this afternoon at 4pm CT, meaning an announcement should come today if a deal is completed. In addition to Go’s salary, the Padres would be responsible for a posting fee paid to the LG Twins as compensation for Go’s services. Go, who sports a 2.39 ERA over 275 1/3 innings of work since the start of the 2019 season, figures to occupy a late-inning role for the Padres alongside fellow overseas signing Yuki Matsui.
2. Blue Jays presser:
As noted by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins is expected to address the media at 9am CT this morning followed by recent signings Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa later in the day. The press conference comes on the heels of a December that saw the Blue Jays connected to many of the league’s top free agents including Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cody Bellinger, and Matt Chapman. Since then, however, Toronto has come up short in their bids for both Ohtani and Yamamoto while the signings of Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa seemingly cast doubt on the club’s odds of landing Bellinger to play center field or reuniting with Chapman at third base. Will today’s presser provide additional clarity regarding Toronto’s pursuits of a the two biggest bats left on the market?
3. Jensen resolution incoming?
Right-hander Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment by the Marlins two weeks ago to make room for right-hander Roddery Munoz on the 40-man roster after Miami acquired him from the Pirates in a minor trade. Typically, a player can only be DFA’d for seven days before they must be assigned, but the clock is paused for the week between Christmas and New Year’s. That would leave Jensen likely to see a resolution to his DFA sometime today. The former first-round pick has been claimed off waivers twice in the past six months, but if the he passes through waivers successfully the Marlins can outright Jensen to Triple-A and retain him in the organization headed into the 2024 season without utilizing a 40-man roster spot.
Woo Suk Go Nearing Deal With Padres
Jan 3: The deal between the Padres and Go is a two-year guarantee worth “more than 9MM,” according to Jiheon Pae of Spochoo.com (Korean language link). Pae adds that the deal includes a club option. Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News relayed last night an announcement from the LG Twins that the club has given Go approval to sign with the Padres. At the time of Go’s posting, the Twins reportedly allowed Go to seek MLB opportunities with the condition that they could reverse their decision if the offers Go received from MLB clubs- and, subsequently, the posting fee the club would receive- were too low.
Jan 2: South Korean reliever Woo Suk Go is nearing an agreement with the Padres, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). It appears to be a major league contract, as Heyman suggests Go could serve as San Diego’s closer next season.
Go, a 25-year-old righty, has pitched parts of seven seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization. He has worked as a pure reliever throughout that time, operating as the closer for the LG Twins for the past five years. After struggling during his first two seasons as a teenager, Go has been a solid bullpen arm for a half-decade.
He has rattled off four seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA, including three campaigns allowing fewer than 2.20 earned runs per nine. Go surpassed 30 saves in each of 2019, ’21 and ’22. He has fanned more than 26% of batters faced in each of the last five years, topping the 30% mark in the last two seasons.
While Go has consistently shown the ability to miss bats, he hasn’t always been around the strike zone. He has walked more than 10% of opposing hitters in four of his seven seasons. Go issued free passes to an alarming 11.6% of batters faced last year, contributing to a 3.68 ERA that made for more of a solid than exceptional platform showing.
Public scouting reports have generally pegged Go as a likely middle reliever at the big league level. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs writes that Go leans primarily on a mid-90s fastball and low-90s cutter while occasionally mixing in a curveball. That’s an intriguing arsenal, but the fringy control could make him a risk in higher-leverage spots.
San Diego has been one of the sport’s most aggressive teams in targeting players making the jump from Asian professional leagues. They recently signed lefty Yuki Matsui to a five-year, $28MM pact as he came over from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. It seems unlikely Go would match that kind of deal, but the Friars are clearly intrigued by his youth and swing-and-miss potential.
With Josh Hader, Nick Martinez and Luis García hitting free agency, the Padres have Matsui and Robert Suarez (another former NPB signee) as their top two leverage relievers. Go, assuming a contract is finalized, could join that mix alongside righty Enyel De Los Santos — whom San Diego acquired from the Guardians in exchange for Scott Barlow this winter.
In addition to what they’d pay Go, San Diego would owe a release fee to the LG Twins under the MLB/KBO posting system. If the total guarantee is less than $25MM, the posting fee would be 20% of the contract’s value. If the guarantee topped $25MM, they’d owe 17.5% of the next $25MM. They’d owe 15% on any spending beyond $50MM, but it’s highly unlikely that Go received a deal approaching that level.