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Archives for January 2025

MLBTR Podcast: The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

The Opener: International Free Agency, Sasaki, Burnes

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With less than a month until pitchers and catchers begin reporting for Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. International signing period opens:

The 2025 signing period for international amateurs has begun and will remain open until December 15. Teams have set bonus pools ranging from $7,555,500 to $5,146,200 for the upcoming period that they can allocate however they see fit — including trading bonus allotments in $250K increments. (A team can only acquire a maximum of 60% of its originally allotted pool, however.) The most highly-regarded prospects in the class have had handshake agreements in place with MLB clubs for years before they were old enough to sign, so for many players at the top of the class their destination is already known. Among the top prospects available are Dominican shortstop Josuar Gonzalez (tied to the Giants), Venezuelan-American shortstop/outfielder Andrew Salas (tied to the Marlins), Dominican shortstop Elian Peña (tied to the Mets) and Cuban outfielder Kevin Alvarez (tied to the Astros).

2. Sasaki officially eligible to sign:

Of course, the presence of right-hander Roki Sasaki, who was posted by NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines last month, is a major disrupting force in the current international class. Sasaki, 23, is regarded as among the most talented pitchers in the world and has four years of NPB experience under his belt already. Unlike the typical teenage prospects that come to the majors through the international amateur system, Sasaki is viewed as big league ready and could be a front-of-the-rotation starter in year one. Whoever ultimately signs Sasaki will likely use most if not all of their bonus pool in order to do so, which could force their more traditional international prospects to look for deals elsewhere.

He recently narrowed down his potential landing spots to three finalists: the Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays. A poll of MLBTR readers yesterday suggests that the majority of fans expect him to sign in L.A., with nearly 52% voting for the Dodgers. The Padres have received 33% of the vote at the time of writing. Toronto lags behind at 15%. While Sasaki is officially eligible to sign as of today, he could wait another few days in order to give teams the opportunity to trade for additional dollars in their bonus pool. Sasaki must sign by Jan. 23, when his posting window comes to a close.

3. Burnes presser today:

The Diamondbacks are set to formally introduce right-hander Corbin Burnes at a press conference scheduled for 1pm local time this afternoon. Burnes surprised the baseball world last month by signing a six-year, $210MM guarantee with Arizona after weeks of rumors connecting him to the Giants and Blue Jays. He was nearly universally ranked as the top pitcher available in free agency this winter (aside from, perhaps, Sasaki) and should give the Snakes one of the most formidable rotations in baseball, joining Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Brandon Pfaadt (and perhaps Jordan Montgomery, if he’s not traded). In addition to Burnes himself, principal owner Ken Kendrick and GM Mike Hazen are both set to be on hand for today’s press conference.

The Cardinals Are Amidst A Half-Measure Offseason

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The Cardinals have made zero trades this offseason. Two months ago, that would've been a huge surprise. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak declared at the end of the season that the team would cut MLB payroll and give consistent reps to younger players. Seven of MLBTR's Top 35 trade candidates entering the winter were Cardinals.

All of them remain Cardinals with less than a month until pitchers and catchers report. They're not all analogous situations. In at least three cases, the Cards themselves were probably taken aback. Willson Contreras told the team he had no interest in waiving his no-trade clause. Sonny Gray has also expressed an interest in staying rather than waiving his own no-trade rights. Nolan Arenado is reportedly more open to moving, though he used his no-trade clause to kill a potential trade to Houston.

Mozeliak has openly stated the organization is trying to deal Arenado. The baseball operations leader has called that the simplest way to get the team's payroll where they want it to be. That could still come together, but it has proven tougher to orchestrate than the front office seemingly envisioned. The Astros have already moved on. Other teams are reportedly balking at taking a big portion of the $64MM remaining on the third baseman's contract. Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote last week that talks on Arenado had stalled.

Those instances are beyond Mozeliak's control beyond the fact that he was willing to include no-trade clauses in Contreras' and Gray's free agent deals. (Arenado received his NTC from the Rockies when he signed his extension in 2019.) The front office probably expected those veterans would be eager to move rather than waiting out one or more transitional seasons. In that sense, the Cards are in an unenviable spot.

The most perplexing part of their offseason is that they haven't made any moves in response to those roadblocks. Their offseason has consisted of buying out Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Keynan Middleton while claiming depth reliever Bailey Horn off waivers. That needs to change between now and Opening Day.

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J.P. France Targeting July Return From Shoulder Surgery

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Astros righty J.P. France underwent surgery to repair a capsule tear in his shoulder last July. There wasn’t much initial specificity about the timeline beyond the fact that it would end his 2024. France tells Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that the procedure came with a 12-14 month recovery window.

He’s now at roughly the halfway point. France tells McTaggart that he hasn’t encountered any setbacks thus far and hopes he’ll be on track for the earlier end of the rehab window. “I feel like the way it’s going right now, hopefully I’m looking more about the 12-month mark, so that will be me [back] in July. Hopefully that’s the case,” France said. “There’s a fine line because it’s a shoulder surgery and you’re not trying to rush it back, either.” He tells McTaggart that he began a throwing program last month and will progress to working from 90 feet this week.

Even the earlier end of France’s timeline means he’s likely to be shelved until around the All-Star Break. He figures to land on the 60-day injured list if the team needs to opens a 40-man roster spot in Spring Training. In an ideal scenario, France could bolster the team’s rotation depth as they’re weighing whether to buy at the trade deadline.

France was a capable back-end starter during his 2023 rookie season. He overcame a middling 17.4% strikeout rate to post a 3.83 earned run average through 136 1/3 innings. Opponents teed off during his five starts early in the ’24 campaign. France posted a 7.46 ERA over 25 1/3 innings before Houston optioned him to Triple-A. Between that and the injury, he has dropped down the rotation depth chart.

Cristian Javier and France are locks to open the season on the IL. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are more borderline candidates to return by Opening Day. The Astros are set to begin the year with a front four of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. Swingman Hayden Wesneski would probably be the fifth starter if Garcia and McCullers are unavailable. Colton Gordon and Ryan Gusto, neither of whom has pitched in the majors, are also on the 40-man roster.

Latest On Alex Bregman’s Market

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Alex Bregman remains unsigned with less than a month until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. Bregman won’t be returning to the Astros after rejecting a reported six-year, $156MM offer that led Houston to pivot to an Isaac Paredes/Christian Walker corner infield tandem.

Early in the offseason, it seemed Bregman and his representation at the Boras Corporation were seeking to eclipse the $200MM mark. Whether that’s still the goal isn’t clear, though it stands to reason that some teams are hopeful he could move off a lofty ask as he lingers on the open market.

To that end, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score writes that the Cubs recently had “casual” conversations with Boras about Bregman. Levine suggests that the Cubs aren’t interested in offering a long-term deal. It seems they’re on the periphery of the market in case the two-time All-Star considers a shorter term with opt-out clauses. There’s nothing to suggest Bregman is currently willing to do so, however.

Chicago traded Paredes as the centerpiece of the Kyle Tucker blockbuster. Top prospect Matt Shaw is the favorite for the third base job. Shaw combined for a huge .284/.379/.488 slash with 21 homers and 31 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A last season. Giving him the starting job would be justifiable, but there’s no guarantee that even a prospect of Shaw’s caliber hits the ground running against big league pitching. The Cubs don’t really have a capable fallback in case Shaw falters. Vidal Bruján, Luis Vázquez and Rule 5 pick Gage Workman are the backup infielders on the 40-man roster.

Bregman would provide a much higher floor. He popped 26 homers with a .260/.315/.453 line in his final season in Houston. Bregman remained an All-Star caliber player despite taking dramatically fewer walks than he had in his previous six seasons. He’s entering his age-31 season, so while it’s understandable if teams are reluctant to commit six or seven years, Bregman shouldn’t be in danger of any kind of immediate drop-off.

The Cubs have sat out the top of the market for consecutive offseasons. They haven’t made a nine-figure investment since committing $177MM to Dansby Swanson over the 2022-23 winter. Chicago was never a factor on Juan Soto, nor did they seemingly have any interest in playing at the top of the starting pitching market. They’ve been loosely linked to Jack Flaherty, though it appears they’re similarly waiting on the fringe of the market in case a buy-low opportunity presents itself. The Cubs have roughly $198MM in luxury tax commitments, according to the RosterResource calculations, putting them more than $40MM shy of the base threshold.

Rangers Reach Streaming Deal With Victory+ For 2025

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The Rangers are planning to announce a streaming agreement for the 2025 season, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The team is set to join Victory+, the provider which also carries the NHL’s Stars. While Stars games are available on the service for free, consumers will need to pay an annual subscription fee to access Rangers contests, Grant writes. Pricing has not been reported.

The organization has been without an in-market broadcasting plan since the end of last season. Its contract with Diamond Sports Group (now known as Main Street Sports), the corporation operating the Bally Sports regional networks, expired at the end of the year. With the company facing questions about its long-term viability even after emerging from Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the Rangers haven’t had interest in negotiating a new agreement. That’s in contrast to the majority of teams that had previously contracted with Main Street Sports. All others have either renegotiated a deal with the regional sports network — presumably for a lesser rights fee — or handed distribution over to Major League Baseball.

Grant suggests this is likely to be the first of multiple steps to expand distribution of Rangers games within the local market. The Dallas Morning-News and the Fort Worth Star-Telegram have each previously written that the team hopes to essentially build its own RSN by directly negotiating individual deals with various streaming and/or cable providers.

The model could leave the Rangers with some uncertainty about their local broadcast revenues. The team’s contract with Diamond Sports Group reportedly paid around $111MM through 2023. Texas agreed to a lesser fee — reportedly around $90MM — on a restructured deal to stay on Bally Sports Southwest for the ’24 season. It’s not clear how much they anticipate making off their partnership with Victory+ or any additional agreements they may reach in the next two months.

Padres, J.B. Wendelken Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres are in agreement with reliever J.B. Wendelken on a minor league contract, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The right-hander will be in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.

Wendelken returns to affiliated ball after two seasons in Japan. The 31-year-old turned in excellent results over a pair of years with the Yokohama DeNa BayStars. Wendelken put up a 1.67 earned run average across 86 innings in Nippon Professional Baseball. He struck out 22.2% of batters faced against an 8.8% walk rate.

Before heading to Japan, Wendelken pitched in parts of six big league seasons. He spent the majority of that time with the Athletics. Wendelken worked to a 3.62 ERA over five years in Oakland. He had a tougher time after landing with the Diamondbacks via August ’21 waiver claim. Wendelken allowed nearly five earned runs per nine through 47 2/3 frames in Arizona. The D-Backs outrighted him off their 40-man roster midway through the 2022 campaign.

The Padres have a handful of relievers locked into the Opening Day bullpen. Robert Suarez, Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada are all ticketed for late-inning roles. Yuki Matsui and Wandy Peralta should be in the middle innings, as the Padres would likely be unable to offload their multi-year deals in trade. Bryan Hoeing and Adrian Morejon will be on the big league roster in some capacity, though it’s not out of the question that they could win rotation jobs in Spring Training. That may only leave one or two middle relief spots up for grabs among the likes of Sean Reynolds, Tom Cosgrove, Stephen Kolek and Wendelken.

White Sox Sign Jonathan Heasley To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox announced that they have signed right-hander Jonathan Heasley to a minor league deal with an invite to major league spring training. The righty is represented by Icon Sports Management.

Heasley, 28 this month, has some limited big league experience stretched over multiple seasons. He has appeared in each of the past four major league campaigns, throwing a combined 139 innings, allowing 5.89 earned runs per nine. His 14.4% strikeout rate is well south of league average, though his 8.9% walk rate is near par.

Most of that came with the Royals from 2021 to 2023. Last winter, he was acquired by the Orioles and started the 2024 season with that club. The O’s mostly kept him on optional assignment, only giving him four big league appearances on the year. He was designated for assignment and then released in July.

That’s not a terribly impressive body of work, but it’s a fairly small sample and the White Sox are likely focused more on his minor league numbers. In 2021, he tossed 105 1/3 innings over 22 Double-A appearances, 21 of those being starts. He had a 3.33 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate. Over the past three years, he has thrown 164 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level, with his ERA at 5.47 in that time. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate in that stretch were still respectable, but he allowed 30 home runs, pushing more runs across the plate.

Heasley has worked both as a starter and a reliever in his career, so he should be able to provide the Sox with depth in both areas. Their bullpen had a collective ERA of 4.73 last year, which was 28th in the league. The rotation was a bit better, with a 4.62 ERA that ranked 25th, though they traded Erick Fedde at last year’s deadline and Garrett Crochet last month.

The Sox do have a number of intriguing young arms, as one would expect from a rebuilding team, but adding in other arms is a sensible offseason goal. They have signed guys like Martín Pérez and Bryse Wilson, as well as having acquired Cam Booser and Wikelman Gonzalez via trade and Penn Murfee via waivers. Heasley now comes aboard as non-roster depth. If he eventually gets a roster spot, he is out of options but has barely a year of service time.

Red Sox, Robert Stock Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox and right-hander Robert Stock have agreed to a minor league deal with an invite to major league spring training, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Naranjeros de Hermosillo, the Mexican winter ball team Stock had been playing for, had previously announced that Stock was leaving to conduct physical exams with the Sox.

Stock, 35, has a bit of major league experience. From 2018 to 2021, he tossed 72 2/3 innings over four seasons, suiting up for the Padres, Red Sox, Cubs and Mets. He allowed 4.71 earned runs per nine. His 23.1% strikeout rate was around average and his 49.8% ground ball rate was strong, but he also gave out walks at a high rate of 12.2%. His fastball averaged 96-98 miles per hour in that time.

He hasn’t been in the majors for a few years now but has performed well in other places. He spent 2022 in Korea, posting a 3.60 ERA over 29 starts for the Doosan Bears of the KBO League. That was enough to get him another shot in affiliated ball, as he signed a minor league deal with the Brewers for 2023. But he had an 8.22 ERA in 23 innings and was in Indy Ball by June.

For 2024, he signed with the Tecos de los Dos Laredos of the Mexican League. He made 19 starts and tossed 98 2/3 innings with a 3.38 ERA. As mentioned, he has been playing winter ball with the Naranjeros, posting great numbers there. He tossed 84 1/3 innings over 14 starts for them with a 1.60 ERA.

For the Sox, there’s no harm in bringing him aboard via a minor league deal to see how he looks in camp. He was a reliever for most of his career but has been starting in more recent years, so he should be able to provide the club with non-roster depth in both areas.

Boston projects to have a rotation of Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Walker Buehler, with Lucas Giolito returning from his elbow surgery at some point this year as well. There’s lots of talent in there but also plenty of question marks. In the bullpen, they lost Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to free agency, though they have signed free agents Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson. They are also set to get Liam Hendriks and Garrett Whitlock back from extended absences due to elbow surgeries.

Dodgers To Have Another Meeting With Roki Sasaki

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Right-hander Roki Sasaki will need to pick his next team in the next few days and has reportedly narrowed his choice to the Blue Jays, Padres and Dodgers. He was recently in Toronto and San Diego to meet with those clubs and will now be meeting with the Dodgers today, per a report from Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

This tracks with the plan previously laid out by Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe at the Winter Meetings back in December. Wasserman, Wolfe’s agency, initially hosted several clubs for meetings at the company’s Los Angeles headquarters. After that, the plan was for Sasaki to head home to Japan for the holidays, then visit some of his top choices in their home cities. One of the notable differences with the second round of meetings is that clubs have been permitted to bring players.

Sasaki’s decision is arguably the most impactful one of the offseason. He is considered to be capable of stepping right into a big league rotation, possibly delivering ace-level performance. He has a 2.10 earned run average in his Nippon Professional Baseball career, striking out 32.7% of batters faced. Such a player would normally require a massive financial investment but Sasaki will sign for a just a few million bucks.

Since he is coming to North America at the age of 23, Sasaki is considered an amateur by MLB’s rules, which require a player to be 25 years old with six professional seasons of experience to be considered a professional. That means he is subject to the international bonus pool system, under which each team gets about $5-8MM annually to spend on such players. A team can trade for more pool space but can’t increase it’s initial allotment by more than 60%. The signing team will also owe a posting fee to the Chiba Lotte Marines, though the size of that fee is calculated based on the size of the contract, so it will also be small.

It’s a decision that therefore will have massive ramifications for years to come. It’s unknown what criteria Sasaki will be using to pick his next team, since money seemingly won’t be a big factor, so the baseball world has been left to mostly guess about his priorities.

The Dodgers have been seen as a frontrunner for a long time, due to various reasons. Japanese players often prefer to be on the West Coast, in part due to its relative proximity compared to East Coast clubs. The Dodgers are also a very successful franchise, having a postseason run going back more than a decade now and a World Series victory just a few months ago. They also have other Japanese players on the roster in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which could be a draw for Sasaki.

On the flipside, there are arguments against the Dodgers being his next team. It’s possible that Sasaki might prefer to be away from the big spotlight of Los Angeles. Wolfe has mentioned that Sasaki wasn’t always fairly treated by the Japanese media and might benefit from being in a smaller market. It’s also theoretically possible that Sasaki could find more endorsement deals on a team other than the Dodgers, where he wouldn’t be in the shadow of Ohtani and Yamamoto. The Dodgers also have a long list of pitchers who have succumbed to significant injuries in recent years, which could perhaps give Sasaki pause.

Those are mostly speculative reasons for or against Sasaki signing with the Dodgers. As mentioned, it’s unknown how or why he will make his decision and the Dodgers are still considered the favorites by many in the baseball world. That includes MLBTR readers, as today’s poll about his landing spot has the Dodgers well ahead of the Padres and Blue Jays.

Subjectively, the Dodgers need Sasaki less than the other two finalists. The Padres have a significant budget crunch and haven’t made any moves of significance this winter, perhaps waiting to see if they can land Sasaki before deciding next steps. The Jays are coming off a disappointing season, have several key players nearing free agency and have seemingly been the runner-up on every notable free agent in recent years. The Dodgers, as mentioned, have a lot of good things going for them as a franchise.

The big decision will be known relatively soon, one way or another. Sasaki has to sign by the end of his posting window, which closes on January 23. He could officially sign as soon as January 15, when the new international signing period opens. It’s also possible that news of his decision will be reported before he actually puts pen to paper, so the bomb could potentially drop at any time.

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