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Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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Braves righty Spencer Schwellenbach underwent surgery to remove loose bodies from his right elbow today, manager Walt Weiss told the team’s beat this morning (link Mark Bowman of MLB.com). Fellow righty Hurston Waldrep, who was also diagnosed with loose bodies in his elbow this spring, will undergo a similar operation on Monday. Weiss and the Braves have not put a formal timetable for a return on either young righty. Schwellenbach is already on the 60-day injured list, and Waldrep will surely join him there whenever Atlanta needs to open another 40-man spot.

Neither revelation is especially surprising, but both are notable all the same. Schwellenbach suggested that an arthroscopic procedure was likely last week when he was placed on the 60-day injured list. He said at the time that he was unsure what the recovery time period for such a procedure would be, and the team provided no further details today. Beyond the fact that he’ll miss at least the first 57 days of the seasons — the Opening Day IL placement can be backdated by three days — Schwellenbach can just be considered to be out indefinitely.

It’ll be the same story for Waldrep, who was cleared of structural damage to his ulnar collateral ligament in a recent MRI but found to have loose bodies in his elbow as well. As with Schwellenbach, Waldrep implied that surgery was likely when telling reporters that the loose bodies in his elbow “probably need to be dealt with.”

Heading into camp, Schwellenbach and Waldrep looked like locks for rotation spots. Schwellenbach missed time last summer with an elbow fracture but had completed five to six bullpen sessions, by his own estimate, before feeling pain at the end of a session a bit more than two weeks ago. The 2021 second-rounder has been brilliant since making his MLB debut in 2024, pitching to a combined 3.23 ERA with a 25.2% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate in his first 234 1/3 MLB innings.

Waldrep just debuted last season and wasn’t quite as cemented on the starting staff, but he was the heavy favorite for Atlanta’s fifth starter gig. In 56 1/3 innings last year (nine starts, one relief appearance), the 2023 first-rounder posted a tidy 2.88 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. He also posted a 4.42 ERA in 19 Triple-A starts, shaking off a rocky stretch early in the season with a pristine 1.99 ERA over his final seven minor league starts before being promoted.

With Schwellenbach and Waldrep sidelined indefinitely, Atlanta’s rotation includes Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Reynaldo Lopez and Grant Holmes. It’s a talented quartet, but Sale has a lengthy injury history and has only had one fully healthy season since the 2017 season wrapped. He won the NL Cy Young Award in that lone (mostly) healthy year, but there’s considerable injury risk for the lefty, who’ll turn 37 next month.

Strider, meanwhile, posted pedestrian results and rate stats during last year’s return from UCL surgery. Lopez made only one start in 2025 due to arthroscopic shoulder surgery. Holmes suffered a UCL tear last summer but has been rehabbing it without surgery and is said to be full-go this spring.

All four of the Braves’ set-in-stone rotation members come with some combination of injury, performance and/or workload concern. Be that as it may, the organization continues to downplay the possibility of bringing in further help from outside the organization. Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently wrote that the Braves’ previously reported interest in Chris Bassitt (who’s since signed in Baltimore) and Lucas Giolito (still unsigned) was overstated. There’s been speculation that perhaps president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is simply at or close to the budgetary limit set by ownership, though the team obviously wouldn’t publicly disclose that even if it were true.

In-house options to round out the staff include Bryce Elder, Joey Wentz, José Suarez, prospect Didier Fuentes (still just 20 years old) and non-roster veterans Martín Pérez, Carlos Carrasco and Elieser Hernández.

Marlins Notes: Stowers, Caissie, Junk

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The Marlins and breakout right fielder Kyle Stowers discussed a long-term contract earlier in the winter, and while no deal came together, the 28-year-old slugger told the Marlins beat in camp yesterday that he remains open to a deal (video link via MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola). Stowers pushed back on reports that suggested he’d had a nine-figure asking price, plainly stating, “I didn’t ask for $100MM” and adding that he was never presented a formal offer from the club.

“I’m just so excited to be here,” said Stowers. “So grateful to be in this organization. I was bummed we didn’t get something figured out — would love to some day — but at the same time, let’s take care of this year, and we’ll go from there. … I can’t stress enough how much I love this organization, how much I love being in Miami and playing for this team, [with] this group of guys.”

A well-regarded prospect who came to Miami alongside Connor Norby in the deal sending Trevor Rogers to Baltimore, Stowers broke out with a career-best .288/.368/.544 batting line (149 wRC+) and 25 home runs in only 457 plate appearances last year. He’d very likely have topped 30 home runs and perhaps even garnered some down-ballot MVP votes had an oblique strain not shelved him for about six weeks and limited him to 117 games.

Stowers struggled against lefties, hitting only one of his 24 round-trippers against a southpaw, and he’s probably not going to maintain a .356 average on balls in play. That, coupled with his 27.4% strikeout rate, might  lead to some regression in his rate stats. But even if Stowers doesn’t hit for a particularly high average, his 10.5% walk rate and strong batted-ball metrics suggest he ought to be able to post a quality on-base percentage with plus power contributions.

There’s no major urgency for Miami to complete a deal at this time. Stowers remains under club control for another four seasons and will play the upcoming 2026 campaign at age 28. Any extra seasons tacked on via a contract extension would begin with his age-32 campaign. Miami already controls the slugger for the majority of his remaining prime seasons, so it’s understandable if they’re wary of going particularly long-term on the late-blooming slugger — even on the heels of an All-Star campaign. At the same time, Stowers will be arbitration-eligible for the first time next winter. His gaudy power output should lead to a nice year-one salary in arbitration, which will lessen some of his own urgency to take anything that feels significantly below market value.

Stowers’ path from a well-regarded but somewhat blocked prospect in Baltimore to a starter in Miami is one that fellow outfielder Owen Caissie will hope to follow in 2026. The former Cubs top prospect, acquired as the headliner in this offseason’s Edward Cabrera trade, chatted with SportsGrid’s Craig Mish (video link) about the emotions of being traded and the excitement over what’s clearly a more straightforward path to playing time in South Florida.

“I thought I was pretty blocked,” said Caissie in reply to Mish asking him about the opportunity (or lack thereof) with his former team. “…Chicago is pretty stacked. It’s pretty tough for a guy to break through. There’s a big payroll and everything like that. … The Cubs have had a great squad the last couple years.”

Opportunities have indeed been limited for young outfielders in Chicago. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have been mainstays on the roster for several years. Cody Bellinger was with the Cubs from 2023-24. The acquisition of Kyle Tucker plugged him into an everyday role in 2025 (after Bellinger’s departure), and Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as the primary center fielder (and won’t often be subbed out, due to his brilliant defense).

Caissie has far fewer obstacles in front of him with Miami. Stowers will occupy one corner, and Jakob Marsee is penciled into center after an impressive two-month run to close out the 2025 season. Caissie, who slashed .286/.386/.551 with 22 homers in 99 Triple-A games last year, is the on-paper favorite for work in right field but will likely still need a nice performance in camp to earn the spot rather than have it handed to him.

Elsewhere in camp, there’s at least some mild concern regarding right-hander Janson Junk. The 30-year-old righty had his own breakout showing in Miami last season and is vying for a rotation spot this spring, but he rolled his ankle Tuesday during workouts and was in a walking boot yesterday, De Nicola writes. The team was sending Junk for imaging to determine how severe any damage might be.

Junk, who described himself as “day to day” with the ankle issue, is on his sixth team since 2021 but turned in 110 innings of 4.17 ERA ball for Miami last year. Sixteen of his 21 appearances were starts. He fanned 17.9% of opponents against a microscopic 2.9% walk rate. Whether he ends up being named Miami’s fifth starter or heads to the bullpen for a swing role, Junk figures to make the Opening Day roster as long as he’s healthy. He’s out of minor league options and thus can’t be sent to Triple-A without clearing waivers, which wouldn’t happen after last year’s solid performance.

MLBTR Podcast: The Tigers’ Rotation, A Brewers-Red Sox Trade, And Late Free-Agent Signings

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

  • Twins Front Office Shake-Up, The Brendan Donovan Trade, Eugenio Suarez, And More! – listen here
  • Examining MLB’s Parity Situation – Also, Bellinger, Peralta, Robert, And Gore – listen here
  • What The Tucker And Bichette Contracts Mean For Baseball – Also, Nolan Arenado And Ranger Suarez – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Junfu Han, Imagn Images

The Opener: MLBPA, Free Agents, Braves

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. MLBPA to regroup following Tony Clark’s departure:

Yesterday, the baseball world was rocked when MLBPA chief Tony Clark abruptly resigned from his position atop the union amid a scandal involving an “inappropriate relationship” with his sister-in-law, whom he hired to work for the union back in 2023. Clark’s departure comes less than a year before the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement on Dec. 1. Rather than go through a lengthy search for a new executive director, there have been indications that the players will look to find a temporary replacement in the short-term. Deputy director Bruce Meyer is the most likely candidate, and reporting has suggested there could be a vote on promoting him to interim director as soon as today.

2. Lingering free agents on the market:

As Spring Training gets fully underway, a swath of veterans have begun to take minor league deals in order to get into camp and get to work with a club in hopes of securing a roster spot coming into Opening Day. Right-hander Walker Buehler, outfielder Mike Tauchman, and first baseman Nathaniel Lowe are among the more notable players to sign minor league pacts in the past week. It’s fair to wonder which other veterans might be working on similar deals over the next few days. Of course, not every player left in free agency will settle for a minor league pact. Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, and Max Scherzer are among the players likely to hold out for big league offers even as Spring Training gets into full swing.

3. Will the Braves do anything with their rotation?

It’s long been assumed that the Braves would make an addition to their rotation this offseason, and that seemingly became all the more likely when Atlanta lost Spencer Schwellenbach for the foreseeable future due to bone spurs in his elbow. Right-hander Hurston Waldrep, meanwhile, is dealing with elbow concerns of his own.

Despite that uncertainty, recent reporting has indicated that the club’s interest in players they’ve been connected to like Giolito and Chris Bassitt has been overstated. (Bassitt, of course, already signed with the Orioles.) Perhaps a team deep in starting pitching (e.g. Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers) would be willing to give up one of the arms lower on their depth chart to fill out Atlanta’s rotation at the right price, but could the Braves simply stand pat?

Tony Clark Steps Down As MLBPA Executive Director

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The Major League Baseball Players Association officially announced that executive director Tony Clark has resigned. Clark did not provide a statement in the press release. He had held the role since 2013.

According to multiple reports, Clark resigned after an internal investigation revealed he had an “inappropriate” relationship with his sister-in-law, who was hired to work for the player’s union back in 2023. Evan Drellich, Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough of The Athletic and Jeff Passan and Don Van Natta Jr. of ESPN each suggest that deputy director Bruce Meyer is most likely choice to take over. The Athletic notes that Meyer recently helped Tarik Skubal in his arbitration case where he defeated the Tigers and has been working the phones today to firm up his support among the players.

The union met this afternoon but did not vote on the matter. Chris Bassitt, a member of the eight-player executive subcommittee, told The Athletic they didn’t want to rush and wanted to take time to update the union’s 1200 members. Bassitt suggested everything would be wrapped up in 24 hours or so, with a vote on Meyer reportedly expected tomorrow. Angels lefty Brent Suter, another member of the subcommittee, told The Athletic’s Sam Blum that the union had an interim director in mind and was not planning to commence an external search at this time. “We’re going to have an interim [director] and keep everything as stable as we can this year,” says Suter.

The 53-year-old Clark and the union had been under investigation since last summer due to purported improprieties regarding the usage of licensing money. Specifically, Clark has previously been alleged to have given himself equity in OneTeam Partners — a joint venture between the MLBPA and NFLPA — and failed to have sufficiently disclosed the level of resources being dedicated to Players Way, an MLBPA-owned youth baseball initiative that is under federal investigation. The union hired a law firm to conduct an internal investigation in response to those allegations. That internal probe reportedly uncovered messages between Clark and his sister-in-law, which led the union to seek his resignation.

Clark had been scheduled to begin a tour of spring visits to the game’s 30 teams just this morning, but the first of those meetings (with the Guardians) was abruptly canceled. The timing of the move is of particular note. Major League Baseball’s current collective bargaining agreement expires in just over nine months. The last wave of collective bargaining talks between the Clark-led union and the Rob Manfred-led league/owners collective was contentious enough to result in a 99-day offseason lockout and transaction freeze.

An even more vitriolic battle is expected by many this time around, with several owners publicly digging in their heels regarding their belief that the sport needs to adopt a salary cap. Any sort of cap — even if accompanied by a salary floor — has been a nonstarter for every previous iteration of the players association; Clark has made no secret of his adamant anti-cap stance at virtually every given opportunity, and Meyer has been in lockstep with that mentality as the union’s lead negotiator and No. 2 executive.

Evan Drellich, Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough of The Athletic first reported that Clark was resigning. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the “inappropriate relationship.”

Dodgers Notes: Second Base, Edman, Hernández

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One camp battle opened for the Dodgers this week. Manager Dave Roberts confirmed that Tommy Edman would begin the season on the injured list as he works back from right ankle surgery. That leaves the season-opening second base job up for grabs among a handful of players.

As Jack Harris of The California Post writes, that could be most meaningful for Hyeseong Kim and Alex Freeland. Kim played in 71 games as an MLB rookie, hitting .280/.314/.385 but striking out in more than 30% of his plate appearances. He had an overaggressive approach and rarely hit the ball hard. Kim’s profile in the KBO was built around his speed and middle infield defense, and his early MLB results align with that.

The 24-year-old Freeland is one of the organization’s better position player prospects. He struggled in a 29-game debut, batting .190 while punching out 35 times across 97 trips to the plate. Freeland had a strong year with Triple-A Oklahoma City, though, hitting .263/.384/.451 with 16 home runs and 18 stolen bases. He walked at a huge 16.3% clip while striking out 22% of the time in the minors.

Kim is a left-handed bat, while Freeland is a switch-hitter who was much better from the left side last season. Either could work in a second base platoon with righty-swinging Miguel Rojas, who projects as their top utility infielder. Kim has the leg up from a versatility perspective, as his plus speed also allows him to back up Andy Pages in center field. Freeland can move around the infield but isn’t a burner and has no professional outfield experience. Both players have minor league options remaining and could be sent to OKC without going on waivers. That’d be more plausible if a non-roster invitee like Santiago Espinal or Ryan Fitzgerald plays their way into a bench job with a strong spring.

Edman’s injury also subtracts from the early-season outfield depth. He’d have been in line for a decent amount of center field work if he were at full strength. Kim could play that role instead, particularly late in games for defensive purposes. That’d occasionally allow Pages to slide to left field, where Teoscar Hernández will pick up the majority of the playing time. Hernández is changing corners after the Kyle Tucker signing.

It wasn’t a lock that the two-time All-Star would remain on the roster all winter. Hernández came up in some trade rumors, with the Royals among the teams known to have interest. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman acknowledged that the front office took calls on his availability but downplayed their desire to trade him at any point (link via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic).

“Teams call and ask about different guys all the time,” Friedman said. “Some that get out there, some that don’t. But we very much value clubhouse chemistry. It’s not something that we would be willy-nilly about. I don’t blame teams for asking. … But obviously it’s not lost on us the importance he has, not just on the field but in the clubhouse as well.”

There’s no indication that any talks have carried into Spring Training. Hernández remains a potent power threat coming off a 25-homer season, but the rest of his production dropped. He hit .247 with a career-worst .284 on-base percentage across 546 plate appearances. Hernández also had a second straight tough year defensively. The 33-year-old said today that he never felt at full strength after a mid-May left groin strain.

That only required a two-week injured list stint but certainly could have impacted his mobility after he returned. That said, Hernández has never been a great defender and is unlikely to improve much in his mid-30s. He’s not an ideal roster fit on a team that can’t offer playing time at designated hitter, but he’s signed for another two years and $33MM (including an option buyout for 2028). Even with the majority of those salaries deferred, that’s more than he would have landed as a free agent this offseason. The Dodgers have no need to force a salary dump and were unlikely to get much of value in a trade return.

D-Backs Notes: Del Castillo, Thomas, Rotation

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The Diamondbacks are expected to begin the year without catcher/first baseman Adrian Del Castillo. Manager Torey Lovullo said Monday that the 26-year-old is dealing with a left calf injury that’ll keep him out of game action for the bulk of Spring Training (link via Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports). He’ll be reassessed closer to Opening Day but it seems unlikely he’ll get enough exhibition reps to avoid a season-opening injured list stay.

Del Castillo is third on the catching depth chart after Gabriel Moreno and James McCann. He nevertheless had a strong chance to win a bench job if healthy. Tyler Locklear will begin the season on the IL as he rehabs elbow and shoulder surgeries. The lefty-hitting Del Castillo has a fair bit of first base and designated hitter experience. Arizona doesn’t have a ton of position player depth on the 40-man roster, leaving a couple bench jobs up for grabs.

After an encouraging 25-game debut two years ago, Del Castillo struggled last season. He struck out 47 times in 131 plate appearances (a near-36% rate) while hitting .242/.290/.392 over 44 games. The Miami product has posted strong numbers throughout his minor league career, but they’ve always come with a concerning level of swing-and-miss. He’s a below-average defensive catcher, putting more pressure on the bat if most of his work comes in the first base/DH mix.

Pavin Smith and Carlos Santana are projected for a first base platoon. They’ll also get a decent number of DH reps, while Lovullo said Ketel Marte will log some time there in addition to his primary second base work. The D-Backs are reportedly poking around the trade market for a utility piece after they dealt Blaze Alexander to Baltimore for reliever Kade Strowd and a pair of minor leaguers. They’ll ideally find someone with more offensive punch than Tim Tawa and non-roster invitees Ildemaro Vargas and Jacob Amaya to play that role.

The bottom half of the lineup would be an even bigger concern if Corbin Carroll opens the season on the IL. Arizona’s star right fielder will miss most of Spring Training following last week’s hamate surgery. The hope is for Carroll to make it back by the beginning of the regular season. Fellow outfielder Alek Thomas tells Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic that he’s working mostly between left and center field with the expectation that Carroll will be in his typical position on Opening Day.

Thomas has played all three outfield positions in the minor leagues. He has played exclusively center field as a big leaguer, logging more than 3000 innings up the middle. Thomas is a quality defender who shouldn’t have any issue adjusting to a corner if the D-Backs need him to move around. Arizona is trying to get Jordan Lawlar acclimated to playing center field.

Lawlar has a higher offensive ceiling than Thomas has shown over 420 MLB contests, so the latter would be best suited for a fourth outfield role if everyone’s healthy. They’ll probably need both players in the starting lineup to begin the season, as Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will also open the year on the injured list after last summer’s ACL injury. Thomas could be a stopgap left fielder until Gurriel returns and/or prospect Ryan Waldschmidt plays his way to the big leagues.

There’s a fair bit of opportunity in one of the more top-heavy lineups in MLB. Carroll, Marte, Moreno and Geraldo Perdomo make for an excellent top half of a batting order. Nolan Arenado is on the downside of his career but should still be a solid everyday third baseman. The bottom third of the lineup and most of the bench is a lot less established.

It’s not quite as extreme on the pitching side, but there are some parallels. Free agent returnees Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen are locked into the rotation; Lovullo has already named Kelly his Opening Day starter. Ryne Nelson figures to have a mid-rotation spot secure, but the Diamondbacks aren’t making any firm commitments beyond that.

“I can’t even really make comments about any projections or what the starting rotation is going to look like,” Lovullo told reporters (including Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). Right now, it looks as if Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt and Michael Soroka are battling for two spots. Rodriguez and Soroka will be on the MLB roster, but Pfaadt has a pair of minor league options and could open the season in Triple-A. Soroka has the most experience of that group in a swing role and would be the most familiar with pitching in long relief if the D-Backs want all six pitchers on the active roster with a five-man rotation. One injury might take the decision out of Lovullo’s hands, but it’s another camp battle that Arizona fans will want to follow during exhibition play.

Junior Caminero Open To Extension Talks With Rays

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If the Rays are to compete for an AL East crown this year, it’ll probably be behind another huge year from Junior Caminero. The 22-year-old cemented himself as the face of the franchise with a 45-homer season in which he hit .264/.311/.535 across 653 plate appearances. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued him between four and five wins above replacement, the highest on the team.

That was Caminero’s first full season at the MLB level. He debuted at the tail end of 2023 but was optioned to Triple-A for the first few months of the ’24 season. He’s two years away from arbitration and under club control through 2030. Caminero tells Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times he’d be interested in exploring a long-term extension, though it doesn’t appear the team has opened those conversations yet.

“I’d like to (discuss it), but this is not my decision,” the young star said. “I feel this is my city, Tampa. I love Tampa, but this is not my decision. I’ll control what I control — just go play, have fun.” Caminero’s agent, Rafa Nieves of Republik Sports, said last August that the team hadn’t broached an extension. Nieves noted that the organization probably wasn’t in position to make the kind of commitment it would entail. They were midway through an ownership sale and had seen their long-term stadium plans fall through. “Honestly, by the time they’re out of those question marks, it might be too late,” Nieves said at the time.

The Rays have completed their ownership transfer in the intervening months. The Patrick Zalupski group officially purchased the franchise in late September. The stadium situation is an ongoing question, however. The team is targeting the Hillsborough College campus as the site for a mixed-use development project that would reportedly come with an estimated $2.3 billion price.

The team hasn’t announced anything publicly, but recent reporting from The Tampa Bay Times indicated they’re hoping for public funding to cover roughly half that amount. They’re still very early in the process and have no guarantees on the public funding front, which naturally raises questions about whether they want to make a significant long-term investment.

(They also still haven’t gotten an official ruling on whether they’ll be able to void the remaining $164MM in guarantees on the Wander Franco contract. Franco is not being paid while he’s on the restricted list pending resolution of a second trial after he was convicted of sexual abuse of a minor in the Dominican Republic last June.)

Nieves suggested last summer that he could look for a guarantee in the $150-200MM range if they worked on an extension. That’d be a little above the $130-135MM area in which Jackson Merrill and Roman Anthony have landed. Caminero is a year closer to free agency than Anthony was. He put up bigger power numbers than Merrill did but was similarly valuable overall in their respective first seasons. Merrill acknowledged at the time he signed his deal that he was likely leaving some money on the table to stay in San Diego.

The track record for top position player prospects who are this productive in their early 20s is excellent. There’s a strong chance that Caminero is a franchise cornerstone. If the Rays have any reservations about valuing him at that level, it’d probably be related to his home/road splits. Caminero was dramatically more productive at their temporary home of George M. Steinbrenner Field (.313/.358/.595) than he was on the road (.218/.266/.477). In all likelihood, that’s a product of an unsustainably low .197 BABIP in road games rather than an indication that he was a huge beneficiary of the minor league home park. The Rays are moving back to Tropicana Field for the 2026-28 seasons.

Latest On Braves’ Rotation

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The Braves’ rotation has been a talking point in the early days of spring training, with a few injuries already popping up, leading to speculation about the club looking for an external addition. Atlanta has been connected to pitchers like Lucas Giolito and Chris Bassitt this offseason but Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that the club’s interest in those two pitchers was overstated. Burns says they did not seriously pursue Bassitt before he signed with the Orioles and have not been involved with Giolito, who remains a free agent.

It’s a curious spot for the club to be in. Injuries to the starting rotation played a huge role in tanking the 2025 season. They went into the campaign as contenders but ended up at 76-86. Just about every starter got hurt, so that the only guy to surpass 126 innings was Bryce Elder, who posted a 5.30 earned run average.

Going into the winter, general manager Alex Anthopoulos said that bolstering the rotation would be a “point of emphasis” but he hasn’t made any significant changes there. He clearly had some money to spend but has invested it elsewhere, having signed outfielder Mike Yastrzemski, infielder Ha-Seong Kim, as well as relievers Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias to eight-figure deals.

That left the rotation looking vulnerable coming into camp and the picture has only gotten worse since then. Spencer Schwellenbach was placed on the 60-day injured list last week due to elbow inflammation. Hurston Waldrep is now getting checked out due to his own elbow soreness.

The rotation still has some upside, in theory, but with question marks everywhere. Chris Sale is the ace but he’s about to turn 37 years old and has been very injury prone in recent years. Spencer Strider missed most of 2024 due to elbow surgery and had lackluster results when he was back on the mound last year. Reynaldo López only made one start last year due to shoulder surgery. Grant Holmes was diagnosed with a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament last year and is currently trying to return while avoiding surgery.

That group could be a strong front four if everyone is healthy and pitching well but that’s a massive if. The depth beyond that group is also questionable. Martín Pérez and Carlos Carrasco are in the organization on minor league deals but neither inspires a ton of confidence. Didier Fuentes is a notable prospect but he’s only 20 years old and got shelled when called up in emergency fashion last year. Jhancarlos Lara and José Suarez are on the roster but seem to be depth/swing types. JR Ritchie is another of the club’s top prospects but he has only 11 Triple-A starts under his belt.

There’s an argument for adding a reliable veteran to strengthen the back of the rotation, even if it doesn’t raise the ceiling much, but Anthopoulos recently said the club is looking for a playoff-caliber starter. Up until fairly recently, the starting pitching market still had a lot of attractive names on it but Atlanta has not pounced on that opportunity. Guys like Bassitt, Zac Gallen, Nick Martinez, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Chris Paddack, José Urquidy, Tomoyuki Sugano, Aaron Civale, Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde, Griffin Canning and Germán Márquez have agreed to modest one-year deals in the past week or so.

Perhaps the club will still pivot to add some reliable innings. If they don’t like Giolito, the market still features Zack Littell, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, Tyler Anderson, Marcus Stroman and others.

It’s also possible the club is out of dry powder. RosterResource projects them for a $264MM payroll and $260MM competitive balance tax number. That payroll is about $50MM above where they finished last year and the CBT number puts them within $4MM of the second tier of the tax, which they may not want to cross.

If it’s the case that there’s no spending capacity left, it looks like a strange offseason for the club. They invested in several areas of the roster but didn’t target the area that was supposed to be a primary focus. Perhaps Anthopoulos can line up a trade of a young pitcher who is cheap and controllable, but the price on such pitchers will be high. Maybe they’ll get lucky and their guys will stay healthier than last year but the injury bug is already biting before spring games have even begun.

Photo courtesy of James A. Pittman, Imagn Images

Padres, Walker Buehler Agree To Minor League Deal

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February 17th: According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Buehler will make $1.5MM if added to the roster and could also access performance bonuses worth $2.5MM on the deal.

February 16th: The Padres are adding Walker Buehler on a minor league contract, reports Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. The Excel Sports Management client will aim to win a rotation job during Spring Training.

San Diego continues to stockpile potential back-end starters. The Padres agreed to big league deals with Griffin Canning and Germán Márquez over the weekend. Buehler settles for a non-roster invitation, which seemingly puts him behind the other two veteran righties as camp gets underway. Canning is coming back from a June Achilles tear. He might begin the season on the injured list but should be in the rotation once he’s healthy.

The Friars have three locks for the Opening Day rotation: Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove. First-year skipper Craig Stammen implied last week that righty Randy Vásquez has a leg up on the fourth starter role after a solid finish last year. Márquez, Canning (if healthy) and JP Sears are the top options on the 40-man roster for the fifth starter job. Matt Waldron also remains on the 40-man but is out of options and coming off a rough season in Triple-A. Buehler joins Triston McKenzie and Marco Gonzales among the non-roster invitees.

A two-time All-Star, Buehler was a borderline ace for most of his time with the Dodgers. He hasn’t been the same since undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career in 2022. The surgery cost him the entire ’23 season, and he returned with a 5.38 ERA across 16 regular season starts the following year. Buehler pitched well in the postseason and wound up closing out the 2024 World Series. The Red Sox bet that was the beginning of a return to form, but his $21.05MM free agent deal with Boston was a disappointment.

Buehler was rocked for a 5.45 ERA across 23 appearances with the Red Sox. They flirted with a move to the bullpen before pulling the plug altogether, releasing him at the end of August. Buehler latched on with the Phillies and made three appearances to close the regular season. While he tossed 13 2/3 innings of one-run ball in Philadelphia, he only struck out eight of 57 batters faced (14%).

Opponents destroyed his four-seam fastball, hitting .277 with a .553 slugging percentage against the pitch. Buehler’s 94 mph average velocity was down a tick from the previous season and almost three miles per hour below where it had been between 2019-20. The spin rates on his four-seam fastball and knuckle-curve have dropped precipitously since his peak. He has had a much more difficult time missing bats, both within and outside the strike zone. Hitters have done a better job laying off stuff outside the zone, leading to a career-high 10.8% walk rate last season.

Although the trend lines aren’t encouraging, Buehler is only 31 and still has league average velocity. The Padres aren’t committed to a roster spot or a guaranteed salary, so there’s no harm in gauging his form during Spring Training. It should be mostly an open competition for at least one rotation spot.

Buehler might not begin the season in Triple-A if he doesn’t win the job. He was an Article XX(b) free agent — a player with six years of service time who finished last season on an MLB roster. Those players who sign minor league deals at least 10 days before Opening Day have a trio of opt-out dates under the collective bargaining agreement: five days before Opening Day, May 1, and June 1. Buehler can trigger an out clause and explore other opportunities during the final week of Spring Training if the Padres don’t commit to carrying him on the active roster.

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