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Yankees To Re-Sign Cody Bellinger

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The Yankees and outfielder/firse baseman Cody Bellinger are going to reunite on a new deal, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Boras Corporation client gets a five-year deal worth $162.5MM, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. There are no deferrals, per Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. Bellinger can opt out after the second and third season, per Passan, who adds that there’s a $20MM signing bonus and full no-trade clause. Bellinger gets $32.5MM in each of the first two seasons, per Nightengale. He’ll then get $25.8MM in 2028 and 2029 and then $25.9MM in 2030, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The opt-outs will be pushed by a year if the 2027 season is wiped out by a lockout, per Nightengale. The Yanks currently have a 40-man vacancy and won’t need to make a corresponding move unless they fill that spot before this agreement becomes official.

It always seemed like a good bet that Bellinger would return to the Yankees, since their first season together was a success. But there was a standoff recently, as the club and Bellinger’s camp had a bit of a gap. It was reported earlier this month that the Yankees had an offer out to Bellinger. No details on that offer were revealed but it was reported a few days later that they had made a second offer.

Subsequent reporting on the negotiations suggested the Yanks had put forth a five-year offer worth more than $150MM, but with Bellinger’s camp hoping to get the length pushed to seven years. That gap seemingly put things on ice for a moment, with alternative paths available to both parties. The Yankees showed interest in other players, including outfielder Luis Robert Jr., while Bellinger still had potential fits with teams like the Dodgers and Mets.

But the market has changed quite a bit in the past week. The Dodgers and Mets got into a bidding war over Kyle Tucker, with the Dodgers coming out on top. The Mets then pivoted to signing Bo Bichette to bolster their infield, followed by trading infielder Luisangel Acuña to the White Sox as part of their package to land Robert.

Those moves took away some alternate paths from the Yankees but also removed a couple of logical landing spots for Bellinger. The Yanks seemingly didn’t budge far from where their reported offer was a few weeks ago, though they did add the opt-outs. It was reported a few days ago that they were willing to include those.

Though Bellinger and Boras didn’t quite get the seven years they were looking for, the deal comes in fairly close to expectations from the beginning of the offseason. For instance, MLBTR predicted Bellinger to land a guarantee of $140MM over five years. Bellinger has secured himself a floor just above that. There’s also a path to boosting his future earnings again with more opt-out opportunities down the line.

He is now 30, turning 31 in July, so he will be 32 years old by the end of the 2027 season. Alex Bregman and Kyle Schwarber both just got five-year deals this offseason, with Schwarber going into his age-33 season and Bregman age-32. Schwarber got a $150MM guarantee and Bregman $175MM, though Bregman’s deals had deferrals which pushed the net present value pretty close to Schwarber’s guarantee.

For Bellinger, he can bank $85MM over the next two years, when factoring in the signing bonus and the front-loaded salaries. When his first opt-out decision comes around, he would still have three years and $77.5MM left on this deal. If he continues to be a productive player between now and then, he should be in a good position to opt out.

While Bellinger has maintained some future earning potential, he has also secured himself a strong base after a few years of uncertainty. When he first hit the open market, he had shown both huge upside and a massive downside. In 2019, then with the Dodgers, Bellinger was the National League MVP. He hit 47 home runs that year. Offense was up all around the league thanks to some juiced balls but Bellinger also drew walks at a 14.4% clip and only struck out 16.4% of the time. His .305/.406/.629 line led to a 161 wRC+, even in the heightened offensive environment of that season. He stole 15 bases and got strong reviews for his defense. FanGraphs credited him with 7.8 wins above replacement.

But his production backed up a bit in 2020 and he infamously injured his shoulder in the NLCS during a post-homer celebration with teammate Enrique Hernández, as seen in this video from MLB.com.

Bellinger underwent surgery after the season and his performance was awful for two years after. He slashed .193/.256/.355 over 2021 and 2022, getting non-tendered by the Dodgers after the latter campaign. He latched on with the Cubs for 2023, signing a one-year deal worth $17.5MM. He had a strong bounceback season in Wrigley, hitting 26 home runs and slashing .307/.356/.525 for a 135 wRC+.

Going into 2024, Bellinger and his reps at the Boras Corporation were hoping to cash in. He had seemingly put the low points behind him. He was still young, going into his age-28 season, and had shown MVP upside. The previous offseason, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts had both secured 11-year deals. This was seemingly a way to lower the competitive balance tax hit of those deals, as a player’s CBT hit is calculated based on a deal’s average annual value.

MLBTR expected this trend to continue with Bellinger, predicting him for a 12-year deal worth $264MM. That seemed to be at least somewhat aligned with what Bellinger and Boras felt he could get, as they reportedly went out looking to top $200MM.

It did not play out that way. Though Bellinger’s 2023 season was a success, there was seemingly some concern about some lackluster batted-ball data. And with the injury-marred seasons still somewhat fresh in the collective memory, his market never quite developed as hoped.

It wasn’t just Bellinger, as several other players lingered unsigned that season. They came to be known as the “Boras Four”, as they were all repped by the same agency. Bellinger, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Jordan Montgomery all settled for short-term deals well below expectations. Bellinger returned to the Cubs on a three-year deal with an $80MM guarantee, with chances to opt out after each season.

The first season of that pact wasn’t a roaring success, as Bellinger was good but not great. He hit 18 home runs and slashed .266/.325/.426 for a wRC+ of 108. Bellinger decided to forgo the first opt-out opportunity and stick with the Cubs. The team didn’t hold up their end of the reunion, however, as they shipped Bellinger to the Yankees. It was effectively a salary dump. The Cubs got Cody Poteet in return, whom they designated for assignment a few months later.

The Cubs ate $5MM in the swap, leaving the Yanks theoretically on the hook for $47.5MM over two years, though with Bellinger still having another opt-out remaining. As mentioned earlier, the Yankees and Bellinger turned out to be a great match. He hit 29 home runs on the year and slashed .272/.334/.480 for a 125 wRC+. Yankee Stadium and its short porch in left field seemed to be a good fit for him, as he slashed .302/.365/.544 at home on the year. He stole 13 bases and continued to get good grades for his glovework, earning 4.9 fWAR.

Bellinger triggered his opt-out and took another crack at free agency, which led to this pact. As mentioned, it’s possible that Bellinger will return to the open market yet again in the future. For now, though it came about in circuitous fashion, he has pushed his earning floor above the $200MM he was looking for a few years ago.

His three-year deal with the Cubs paid him $27.5MM in each of the first two years. He collected a $5MM buyout when he opted out of the final season, meaning he banked $60MM on the pact. Combined with this deal with the Yankees, he’ll earn $222.5MM even if he doesn’t trigger either of the opt-outs in this deal.

For players taking the short-term route and hoping for more earnings later, this is another example of how the path is viable. It doesn’t always work out, as Montgomery will surely tell you, but the hit rate is pretty decent. Chapman, Snell, Bellinger, Bregman, Carlos Rodón, Pete Alonso and Carlos Correa have all signed two- or three-year deals and then later signed a longer deal worth nine figures.

More to come.

Dodgers Designate Michael Siani For Assignment

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The Dodgers announced this afternoon that outfielder Michael Siani has been designated for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster goes to Kyle Tucker, whose record-breaking four-year contract has now been formally announced by the club.

Siani has bounced around the waiver circuit this offseason and now could find himself changing hands once again. The 26-year-old was an over-slot fourth-rounder by the Reds back in 2018 and has bounced from the Cardinals, to the Braves, to the Dodgers since the season ended. He’ll now be traded or placed on waivers within the next five days.

Siani has spent his entire playing career in the National League Central. He very briefly debuted with Cincinnati back in 2022 but made only 25 major league plate appearances with his original organization before being claimed off waivers by St. Louis in September of 2023. He was a frequently used, defensive-minded fourth outfielder with the 2024 Cardinals when he logged a career-high 334 plate appearances.

In parts of four major league seasons, Siani owns an anemic .221/.277/.270 batting line (58 wRC+) but grades for his defense and baserunning. He’s played 1014 major league innings in the outfield — primarily in center but with fleeting corner appearances mixed in — and been credited with overwhelmingly positive marks from Statcast’s Outs Above Average (16) and from Defensive Runs Saved (7). He’s also gone 21-for-26 in stolen base attempts, giving him a success rate of nearly 81%.

The left-handed-hitting Siani still has a minor league option remaining. He could be a pickup for any club looking to bring in a speed-and-defense option off the bench — particularly one who can freely be shuttled between Triple-A and the majors.

Dodgers Sign Kyle Tucker

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Jan. 21: The Dodgers have formally announced the signing of Tucker on a four-year, $240MM contract. Outfielder Michael Siani was designated for assignment in a corresponding roster move.

Jan. 15: The two-time defending champions have done it again. The Dodgers are reportedly in agreement with Kyle Tucker on a four-year, $240MM contract. The deal includes $30MM in deferrals and will come with an approximate $57.1MM annual value for luxury tax purposes. Tucker, a client of Excel Sports Management, receives a $64MM signing bonus — all but $10MM of which is paid upfront — and can opt out after the second or third seasons. The team has not officially announced the signing, which is pending a physical, and will need to create a 40-man roster spot once it’s official.

Tucker, who turns 29 on Saturday, is the latest superstar addition to what was already MLB’s most feared offense. He slots into a lineup alongside Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman. He’ll join Hernández and Andy Pages as the primary outfielders, with Edman capable of logging center field action when he’s not at second base.

Los Angeles has four outfield prospects who rank prominently near the top of their farm system. They reportedly wanted to avoid locking in long-term commitments as a result. They’ve accomplished that with arguably the biggest annual value in the sport’s history.

It’s a $60MM average on the surface. Without adjusting for deferrals, Tucker’s deal would be the second-highest AAV ever. Ohtani landed a $70MM AAV on his 10-year, $700MM guarantee, though the massive deferrals meant it had a “true” annual value closer to $46MM. One should therefore view the $51MM annual salary on Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765M deal as the more accurate record holder until tonight. Tucker’s adjusted AAV beats that by more than $6MM.

Although Tucker was this offseason’s top free agent, he’s a clear step below the likes of Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Soto of the previous three winters. Tucker has been a consistent All-Star who’s a little outside the top tier of superstars. The fifth overall pick by the Astros in 2015, he broke out in the shortened 2020 season after logging limited big league action in the two preceding years. He connected on 29 or 30 home runs in each of his first three full campaigns, improving his approach along the way.

Tucker was already a great hitter and seemed to be on his way to pulling closer to Judge, Soto and Ohtani with a monster start to the 2024 season. He was out to a .266/.395/.584 slash with more walks than strikeouts through the first two months. He fouled a ball off his right leg and was placed on the injured list with what the Astros initially termed a shin contusion. It turned out to be more serious, as subsequent testing revealed a fracture that kept him out for three months.

The four-time All-Star returned no worse for wear and had a fantastic September. The Astros nevertheless decided to field trade calls after the season. They were never going to meet Tucker’s asking price on an extension and felt they could cash him in for help elsewhere on the roster. They lined up a deal with the Cubs around the Winter Meetings that sent Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith to Houston for Tucker’s final year of arbitration.

Tucker’s lone season in Chicago had its ups and downs. He got out to another blistering start, running a .284/.359/.524 slash with 12 homers through the first day of June. He jammed his right thumb diving into second on a stolen base attempt that day. He avoided the injured list, but subsequent testing revealed that he sustained a tiny fracture at the top of his hand between his ring finger and pinky.

The hand injury wasn’t viewed as a serious issue until Tucker’s performance began to suffer. That didn’t occur right away. His next few weeks were the finest of the season, in fact. Tucker slashed .311/.404/.578 across 25 games that month. Things went off the rails in July, as he batted .189/.325/.235 with just one home run over the next six weeks.

The existence of the hairline fracture wasn’t reported until the middle of August. Cubs officials acknowledged that Tucker had been injured in June but said that he was fully healthy by the time the injury was revealed publicly. Maybe the thumb became a retroactive explanation for what was actually a simple slump, though it’s possible he developed some subtle bad habits in June as he tried to mitigate the pain of hitting through the break. Manager Craig Counsell gave Tucker a three-game mental reset towards the end of August before plugging him back into the middle of the order.

Tucker appeared to be getting back into a groove when he hit another speed bump. He strained his left calf in early September and landed on the injured list, costing him three weeks in the season’s final month. He finished the regular season with a .266/.377/.464 slash line in a little under 600 trips to the plate. He hit .259 with one homer in eight postseason games as the Cubs advanced to the NL Division Series.

The uneven second half soured some Cubs fans on the Tucker acquisition. His overall numbers were in line with his career marks. The offense was 36 percentage points better than league average by wRC+. His lifetime .273/.358/.507 batting line is 38 points above par. Tucker has been in that range in four of the past five seasons. The only exception is his .289/.408/.585 showing over 78 games two years ago.

The ’24 season is probably an outlier, but the Dodgers should feel they’re adding one of the top 10-15 hitters in MLB. He doesn’t expand the strike zone and has a rare blend of plus contact skills and above-average power. Tucker has no issue hitting pitchers of either handedness. He doesn’t have the huge exit velocities of the sport’s premier sluggers, yet he’s a safe bet for 25-30 homers in a healthy season.

Tucker’s glove isn’t as strong at this stage of his career. He won a Gold Glove with Houston in 2022. His defensive grades and sprint speed have declined as he’s gotten into his late-20s. That presumably gave teams pause when considering a long-term investment. Tucker’s defense should remain serviceable in the short term. The Dodgers can comfortably plug him into right field and kick Hernández over to left if they don’t trade him.

The Cubs issued Tucker a qualifying offer but made little effort to retain him. The bidding seemingly came down to the Dodgers, Mets and Blue Jays. New York was similarly hesitant to make a long-term commitment, as they reportedly offered a four-year deal at $55MM per season. Toronto was seemingly willing to entertain a longer term at a lower annual value.

Tucker is L.A.’s second qualified free agent signing of the offseason. They added Edwin Díaz on a three-year, $69MM deal around the Winter Meetings. They surrendered their second- and fifth-round draft choices this summer, plus $1MM from their 2027 international bonus pool, to sign Díaz. They’ll forfeit their third- and sixth-round picks for Tucker. The Cubs receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round (currently slated to land 77th overall).

MLBTR had predicted an 11-year, $400MM deal for Tucker at the beginning of the offseason. It’s unclear if any team would have been willing to go to those lengths. He’s giving up some measure of long-term security in exchange for massive salaries over the next couple seasons and the chance to return to free agency at the tail end of his prime.

He’ll have the option of retesting the market before his age-31 and age-32 campaigns — and without being attached to draft compensation barring a change to the qualifying offer rules in the intervening CBA. A five- or six-year guarantee could be well within range at that point. He’ll collect a huge signing bonus, essentially shatter the record for average annual value, and join the team with the best chance to win the World Series in the interim.

While the specific salary breakdown hasn’t been reported, the Dodgers are reportedly paying $54MM of the signing bonus right away. RosterResource estimates their cash payroll obligations close to $428MM for the upcoming season. Tucker’s $57.1MM AAV will push their competitive balance tax projection north of $395MM.

They’re taxed at a 110% rate on spending above $304MM, so Tucker’s deal comes with a staggering $62.81MM tax hit in the first season. The Dodgers are essentially valuing Tucker’s 2026 season alone at $120MM. L.A. ended last season with a luxury tax payroll of $417MM, costing them another $169.4MM in taxes. Their tax bill alone was higher than the final payroll calculations of 12 teams. They’re trending towards a similar or potentially even greater amount in 2026 depending on what else they do this offseason and at the trade deadline. The aggressiveness continues as they aim for the first three-peat in MLB since the 1998-2000 Yankees.

Tucker’s deal is going to be the latest example for many fans and smaller-market owners who will argue for a salary cap in the upcoming round of collective bargaining negotiations. This level of spending also reaffirms why the MLB Players Association has steadfastly maintained that a cap is a non-starter. Next offseason’s CBA talks are expected to be similarly or even more contentious than those that froze the sport for 99 days during the 2022-23 lockout.

That’s not the concern of the Dodgers or their fans, who’ll be thrilled to add another star as they try to cement their dynastic run. They’ll be heavy favorites in the NL West, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this team doesn’t make the playoffs. A championship is far from guaranteed, however. The Jays were one swing away from beating them in Games 6 and 7 of last year’s World Series. An extra quarter-second on Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s dash home or another few feet on Ernie Clement’s fly ball in the bottom of the ninth would have flipped the outcome. L.A. ownership and the front office aren’t getting complacent.

After missing on Tucker, the Jays seem likely to reengage with Bo Bichette. Their longtime shortstop is now the top unsigned player. He has reportedly had a productive meeting with the Phillies, but the Jays and Bichette have long expressed mutual interest in a reunion. Bichette wouldn’t be a great fit for the Mets, but they could conceivably pivot to challenging the Yankees for Cody Bellinger. The Mets still don’t have a left fielder after swapping Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. Their reported offer to Tucker demonstrates there’s plenty of room for short-term spending, but president of baseball operations David Stearns has shied away from lengthy commitments this winter.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Tucker was signing with the Dodgers. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had it as a short-term contract, while Robert Murray of FanSided was first on the four-year, $240MM guarantee. Murray reported the opt-out after the second season, and Passan had the third-year out. Heyman reported the $30MM in deferrals. Ari Alexander of Boston 7 News was first on the $57.1MM post-deferral AAV. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers had the signing bonus details.

Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.

Mets To Sign Luis García

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The Mets and veteran right-handed reliever Luis García are in agreement on a contract, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It’s a one-year, $1.75MM major league deal that can be worth up to $3MM after incentives, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. García, a client of agents Larry Reynolds and Rosie Lopez-Herrera, still needs to complete a physical before the contract becomes official.

García, 39 next week, is a veteran of 13 big league seasons who’s pitched for eight clubs to this point in his career. He sports a lifetime 4.07 earned run average but has pitched better than that in the latter stages of his career; dating back to 2021, he carries a 3.86 ERA with even better marks from metrics like SIERA (3.55) and FIP (3.45). García split the 2025 season between the Dodgers, Nationals and Angels, combining for a 3.42 ERA. His strikeout rate (20.6%) and walk rate (11.2%) were both worse than average, but he induced grounders at a strong 49.7% clip and averaged just under 97 mph on his sinker.

While García almost certainly won’t sustain a minuscule 0.33 HR/9 mark and 4.7% homer-to-flyball ratio moving forward, there’s a good chance he can improve on last year’s command. He entered the 2025 season with a 7.8% walk rate across the four prior seasons, making last year’s 11.2% clip somewhat uncharacteristic. García’s roughly average swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates would support a modest bump in strikeouts as well, though he’s now turned in a below-average strikeout rate in three consecutive seasons.

The Mets have now added three free agent relievers to the bullpen this winter, although García’s contract is obviously on a much smaller scale than those of presumptive closer Devin Williams (three years, $51MM) and top setup man Luke Weaver (two years, $22MM). García will slot into the middle-relief mix and figures to work lower-leverage situations than Williams, Weaver, A.J. Minter and Brooks Raley, although with 17 career saves and 117 holds, he’s no stranger to high-pressure settings.

With the Mets already in the top tier of luxury penalization, García’s $1.75MM base salary will actually cost the team $3.675MM. The additional $1.25MM worth of incentives, if unlocked in full, would cost the club a total of $2.625MM. Of course, if he maxes out his incentive package, it’ll likely because he’s pitched well enough to make the end-of-day $6.3MM price point well worth the cost.

Getz: White Sox Expect To Be “Very Active” Following Robert Trade

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Last night’s trade of Luis Robert Jr. to the Mets trimmed $20MM from the White Sox’ 2026 budget. General manager Chris Getz spoke to reporters this morning and made clear that some of that money will be reinvested into other areas of the roster. Via MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, Getz was asked whether he felt his outfield was set and replied that he expects to be “very active” with the “financial flexibility” that will make it easier to bring in additional talent.

Even with Robert on the roster, there shouldn’t have been much of a financial argument for Chicago to feel its roster was set. RosterResource had the South Siders at about $87MM in terms of 2026 payroll prior to moving Robert. That’s now dropped to about $67MM. The White Sox’ franchise-record Opening Day payroll, set back in 2022, is $193MM. There was already ample payroll space available, but shedding the Robert deal still clearly gives Getz & Co. more leeway relative to whatever budget has been set by owner Jerry Reinsdorf.

Looking at the White Sox’ roster, there are plenty of areas for obvious improvement. Andrew Benintendi remains entrenched in left field, but the first three seasons of his five-year, $75MM contract haven’t gone as hoped for either the Sox or the player himself. Center field and right field should be up for grabs.

Luisangel Acuña, acquired in the Robert trade, could factor into the center field mix but could play in the infield, depending on the health and development of young players like Chase Meidroth and Colson Montgomery. Other outfield options include utilityman Brooks Baldwin, journeyman Derek Hill and DFA pickup Everson Pereira. Top prospect Braden Montgomery could eventually push for a spot on the big league roster, but he’s still only played 34 games at the Double-A level and none in Triple-A. Further minor league seasoning is surely on the horizon for him.

Things are at least more tentatively set in the infield. Montgomery ripped 21 homers in 71 games as a rookie and batted .239/.311/.529 overall. Strikeouts are a concern, but he’s going to get a look as the regular shortstop. Meidroth played solid defense and got on base at a decent clip, albeit with virtually no power of which to speak. Miguel Vargas popped 16 homers and turned in league-average offense at third base. NPB star Munetaka Murakami will get the chance at first base after signing a surprising short-term deal in free agency. The Sox are generally set behind the plate with young backstops Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero.

Both the rotation and bullpen could use veteran reinforcements. The Sox brought lefty Anthony Kay back from Japan on a two-year deal and signed swingman Sean Newcomb, who’ll get the opportunity to win a rotation job this spring, but the rotation still lacks experience overall. Shane Smith, Sean Burke and Davis Martin will probably open the season alongside Kay and whichever of Newcomb or Jonathan Cannon claims the fifth spot — at least as things presently stand. The bullpen is even less settled. The Sox don’t have a reliever with even three years of major league experience. Lefty Tyler Gilbert is the only one on the 40-man roster who has even two years of service time (assuming Newcomb is viewed as more of a starter than a reliever at present).

Free agency has been largely picked over, particularly in the bullpen, but there are still some interesting names remaining. The ChiSox reportedly have some interest in Griffin Canning and would be a sensible landing spot for any veteran arm on a short-term deal. The market is littered with “old friends” for Sox fans, including Chris Bassitt, Aaron Civale, Jose Quintana, Lucas Giolito and Martin Perez. Rebound candidates in the rotation market include Walker Buehler, Nestor Cortes and Chris Paddack. On the relief side of things, veterans like Seranthony Dominguez, Paul Sewald, Tommy Kahnle, Danny Coulombe, Michael Kopech and Jose Leclerc are unsigned.

It’d be unwise to anticipate a major signing along the lines of Cody Bellinger or Framber Valdez — clear roster fit notwithstanding — given the current state of the team overall. The White Sox have grown the farm system and culled payroll over the course of the current rebuild but have yet to make an earnest win-now push. Either Bellinger or Valdez would require a franchise-record commitment, and we’re only a couple months removed from Getz suggesting he’s reluctant to even sign free agents to contracts that push beyond the 2026 campaign (though he’s since done so with Kay and Murakami — albeit only after the latter’s market failed to develop as hoped).

Perhaps a notable free agent like Zac Gallen will eventually pivot to a shorter-term contract, but he’d cost the White Sox their second-highest pick, which currently sits 41st overall. That seems like a price a rebuilding club would prefer not to pay — particularly for a short-term veteran on a contract with opt-out potential.

Of course, there are opportunities available beyond the free agent market. Trade candidates abound throughout the league — some of whom could be acquired at minimal cost if the White Sox opt to use their currently tiny payroll to absorb unwanted contracts. Jose Berrios, Kodai Senga, Taijuan Walker and Eduardo Rodriguez are among the names who could fit that description, and the Sox have an improved farm that could help them pull in more meaningful, controllable talent if Getz and his staff find an opportunity to their liking.

Speaking in broad terms, Getz acknowledged the wide-open slate of possibilities before him (again, via Merkin): “[Additions] could come in starting pitching, relievers, balancing right-handed vs. left-handed. So we are very open minded and excited in getting to work in being creative and bringing in that talent.”

MLBTR Podcast: What The Tucker And Bichette Contracts Mean For Baseball – Also, Nolan Arenado And Ranger Suarez

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The overlapping stories at the top of the market and what they might mean: The Dodgers agreed to a deal with Kyle Tucker. The Mets gave Tucker a similar offer but then pivoted to signing Bo Bichette. Tucker had a long-term offer from the Blue Jays and Bichette from the Phillies but both went for the short-term deals. Is this some kind of paradigm shift or just unique circumstances? (1:50)
  • Could we ever predict this type of pivot in our Top 50 post in future years? (17:25)
  • How these deals impact parity, the upcoming expected lockout, collective bargaining agreement, etc. (34:35)
  • Bichette’s fit in the Mets’ position player mix (recorded prior to the Luis Robert Jr. trade) (1:04:25)
  • The Cardinals trading Nolan Arenado to the Diamondbacks (1:15:25)
  • The Red Sox signing Ranger Suárez (1:26:55)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Cubs Land Cabrera And Bregman, Remaining Free Agents, And Skubal’s Arbitration Filing – listen here
  • Contracts For Imai And Okamoto, And Thoughts On The Pirates And Giants – listen here
  • Three-Way Trade, Murakami’s Short-Term Deal, And Willson Contreras To Boston – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images

Red Sox Sign Ranger Suárez

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The Red Sox officially announced the signing of left-hander Ranger Suárez to a five-year deal Wednesday. He’ll reportedly be guaranteed $130MM in total, and the contract contains a mutual option for the 2031 campaign. It’s a fairly straightforward deal that contains no deferrals, opt-outs or no-trade protection. Boston opened a 40-man spot for the veteran lefty this morning when trading infielder Tristan Gray to the Twins. Suárez is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Suárez’s contract is reportedly backloaded in significant fashion, paying him just a $3MM signing bonus and $7MM salary in 2026. He’ll earn $15MM in 2027 before his salary doubles to $30MM in each of the next two years (2028-29). Suárez will be paid $35MM in 2030 and is also guaranteed a $10MM buyout on that mutual option, which is valued at $35MM. Mutual options are never exercised by both parties, so the inclusion of one in this deal is little more than a mechanism to further backload the contract.

The Sox came into the offseason with a rotation headlined by Garrett Crochet, followed by a notable gap to their other starters. They had a lot of options for back-end types and depth but were looking to bolster the front end.

“Because of the depth that we’ve built up over the last couple of years, we feel pretty good about just overall starting pitching, maybe No. 3-ish through No. 10-ish,” was how chief baseball officer Craig Breslow framed the situation in November. “And that’s not to take away from guys who are certainly capable of doing more, and more just to say I don’t think we’re going to spend a ton of time trying to add a No. 4, No. 5 starter.”

Since then, Breslow has made a couple of moves to alter that rotation group. He acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates. They subtracted a bit from the depth by including Richard Fitts in the Gray deal and Hunter Dobbins in a separate Cardinals trade that netted first baseman Willson Contreras.

Gray is arguably the kind of No. 2 starter the club was looking for. His 4.28 earned run average in 2025 has some Boston fans disputing that assessment but he has a 3.63 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate in 531 innings dating back to the start of 2023. FanGraphs ranks him fifth in wins above replacement among pitchers in that time, behind only Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb and Cristopher Sánchez.

Since the Gray deal, Boston has seemingly been more focused on upgrading its lineup and position player mix, targeting infielders like Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan and Isaac Paredes. Clearly, Boston hit a wall in those efforts. Bregman signed with the Cubs, and Bichette landed with the Mets. The D-backs have reportedly taken Marte off the market. Paredes and Donovan could still be available, though Houston has shown minimal interest in dealing the former. Having come up empty (so far) in that pursuit of a marquee infielder, the Red Sox pivoted to further augment an already strong rotation.

Suárez’s contract is notable on a few fronts. For one, Breslow has generally avoided long-term free agent deals since becoming Boston’s chief baseball officer. Coming into today, his longest deal for a free agent was to give Bregman three years, which turned into a one-year relationship when Bregman opted out. The Sox came into today as the only one of the 30 major league clubs to not have signed a free agent this winter. This deal will be a new benchmark for Breslow in terms of years and guarantee given to a free agent, as well as erasing Boston’s status as the only team not to spend money on free agency this offseason.

It’s also a notable deal for Suárez in a few different ways. For one thing, he was a fairly low-profile international signing of the Phillies at the start of his professional career, securing a bonus of just $25K. As he has become a major leaguer, he has pushed his salary up in arbitration with his strong results but his lack of volume has limited him. He just made $8.8MM in his final year of arbitration, relatively modest by modern standards, but will now be securing a much bigger payday than ever before.

Speaking of his strong results but limited overall workload, that impacted the view of his market coming into this winter. Broadly speaking, Suárez has been really good on a rate basis, but he doesn’t throw especially hard and has dealt with some nagging injuries, impacting the overall quantity of his contributions.

He first became a full-time starter for the Phillies in 2022 and held a rotation job for four years. Over that span, he logged 588 1/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA. His 21.9% strikeout rate was around league average. His 7.5% walk rate was solid and his 50.8% ground ball rate quite good. He also earned a reputation as a cold-blooded playoff contributor, giving the Phils 42 2/3 postseason innings with a 1.48 ERA.

However, Suárez’s velocity has never been huge and has been trending down. His four-seam fastball averaged a bit over 93 miles per hour in 2022 and 2023. That dropped to 91.8 mph in 2024 and 91.3 mph last year. His primary pitch, his sinker, averaged just 90.1 mph in 2025.

Suárez also still hasn’t really pitched a full big league season. He hasn’t had any major injury concerns but has had scattered issues over the years, with lower back problems being a recurring thorn. Thanks to those sporadic health problems, he’s never hit the 30-start mark or the 160-inning plateau in any season as a big leaguer.

Given his clear skills but also his question marks, MLBTR predicted Suárez for a five-year, $115MM deal at the beginning of the offseason, $23MM in terms of average annual value. The top of the free agent starting pitching market has been slow to move this winter. Dylan Cease and the Blue Jays quickly found each other but it’s been a bit tepid otherwise.

Prior to this, no other starter apart from Cease signed a deal longer than than three years or for more than $75MM. Tatsuya Imai settled for three years and $54MM, significantly below the expectations from the outset of the offseason. As Suárez and Framber Valdez lingered unsigned into the new year, it was fair to wonder if they would meet the initial expectations. Suárez has not only met MLBTR’s prediction but surpassed it by a margin of $3MM per season.

Despite some concerns with Suárez, the move gives Boston one of the best rotations in baseball, if not the very best. Crochet is the clear ace. Suárez and Gray will have two spots behind him, followed by Brayan Bello. Oviedo seems to be in a decent position to land the No. 5 spot, but he would also have competition from injury returnees like Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford. It’s possible Tanner Houck jumps into the mix late in the year, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in August.

Prospects Connelly Early and Payton Tolle made big league debuts late in 2025 and could push for jobs as well. Kyle Harrison, David Sandlin, Shane Drohan and Tyler Uberstine are also on the 40-man roster. Those latter six names all have minor league options and either have limited big league experience or none at all, so they could all be sent to the minors as depth. Crawford has a decent amount of big league experience but is still optionable, so it’s possible for him to be squeezed to Worcester as well.

It’s also fair to wonder if this Suárez deal sets the Red Sox up to trade some starting pitching for the infield upgrade they didn’t get when Bregman slipped through their fingers and Bichette signed with the Mets. They have been connected to Donovan many times and have already lined up a few trades with Chaim Bloom, Boston’s former chief baseball officer who is now president of baseball operations with the Cardinals.

Donovan isn’t the only option out there. The Sox were also connected to Marte as strongly as any club in baseball. While the Diamondbacks have reportedly taken him off the market, Breslow could always try to force the issue with an offer headlined by Tolle or Early (in addition to other young pieces). Nico Hoerner’s name has also come up in some trade rumors after the Cubs signing Bregman. Jake Cronenworth of the Padres has been in a few rumors.

All those players would have varying level of trade value due to their different salaries and years of control, but the same is also true of Boston’s pitchers. Early and Tolle are big prospects and would only be given up for a big return. Sandoval has one year left on his contract and has been injured for most of the past two years, so his trade value is marginal, at best. Bello has even been in some rumors and he would be somewhere in between, as he is owed $50.5MM over the next four years and has been more good than great.

Since it feels likely that at least one more significant move is coming, the club’s financial picture is probably still in flux. For now, RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at $197.5MM with a competitive balance tax calculation just under $266MM.

The Sox avoided the tax in 2023 and 2024. They went narrowly over the line in 2025, paying a tax bill of just $1.5MM. That will make them second-time payors in 2026, giving them a base tax rate of 30% for going over the first threshold of $244MM. The second threshold is $264MM and the Sox would pay a 42% on further spending above that line. If they go beyond $284MM, the tax rate would jump to 75% for spending above that line and their top pick in the 2027 draft would be dropped by ten spots.

Speaking of the draft, the Sox are going to be impacted by this Suárez signing in 2026. Suárez rejected a qualifying offer from the Phillies, meaning the Sox are subject to the associated penalties for signing him. Since the Sox paid the tax last year, they have to forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks this summer, in addition to losing $1MM in international bonus pool space. The Phillies will receive a compensation pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft.

Prior to this deal with the Red Sox, Suárez was connected to the Orioles, Astros and Mets, though other clubs presumably had interest even if they weren’t connected to him in public reports. For the teams who missed out on Suárez, there are still some options they can turn to, despite the relatively late stage of the offseason.

Valdez and Zac Gallen are the top two free agents, with Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander, Lucas Giolito and others still unsigned. The trade market still has some potential options, including MacKenzie Gore and Freddy Peralta. Valdez has to be pleased with Suárez getting a deal beyond expectations even at this part of the calendar. They are fairly similar pitchers as groundballers. Valdez is a bit older but throws harder and has the more impressive track record overall.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that the Sox would be signing Suárez. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the length and guarantee, as well as the lack of deferrals and opt-outs. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported the lack of a no-trade clause, the inclusion of a mutual option, and the annual breakdown of the contract. Photos courtesy of Bill Streicher, Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Twins Designate Vidal Brujan For Assignment

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The Twins have designated recently claimed infielder/outfielder Vidal Brujan for assignment, per a club announcement. His spot on the 40-man roster goes to infielder Tristan Gray, whose previously reported acquisition from the Red Sox is now official. Minnesota’s 40-man roster remains at capacity.

Minnesota claimed Brujan off waivers one week ago, designating catcher/infielder Mickey Gasper (who’s since been claimed by the Nationals) for assignment in a corresponding move. They’ll now presumably try to pass Brujan through waivers themselves in an effort to stash him in Triple-A St. Paul as a depth option. Brujan is out of minor league options and faced an uphill battle in making the roster, so the quick turnaround on this morning’s DFA isn’t all that surprising.

Now 28 years old, Brujan held a spot on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect rankings for four years but has yet to put things together in the majors. He’s seen big league time in five straight seasons between the Rays, Marlins, Cubs, Braves and Orioles (one plate appearance) but turned in just a .199//.267/.276 batting line in 645 trips to the batter’s box. He used to rate as a plus runner but sat in just the 37th percentile of big leaguers with last year’s average sprint speed, per Statcast.

Despite the lack of major league production, Brujan has been a useful and versatile player in Triple-A. He’s taken just over 1000 turns at the plate at the top minor league level and logged a collective .273/.356/.450 line with a nice 10.6% walk rate and a 16.5% strikeout rate that’s considerably lower than average. The switch-hitting Brujan was originally signed by the Rays as a 16-year-old middle infielder, but he’s gained considerable experience across all three outfield spots in recent seasons and now has more than 1500 career innings on the grass.

Gray, who is displacing Brujan on the 40-man  roster, has virtually no outfield experience of which to speak but has experience across all four infield spots. Critically, he also has a minor league option remaining, so he can provide similar versatility around the infield but more flexibility from a roster vantage point.

The Twins will have five days to trade Brujan before he has to be placed on waivers (though he can be placed on waivers at any point prior to that five-day deadline as well). Waivers are a 48-hour process, so we’ll have an outcome on Brujan’s DFA within the next week.

The Opener: Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers

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On the heels of an early morning trade, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Mets press conference later today:

The Mets are holding a press conference at 1pm local time to introduce star infielder Bo Bichette after his three-year deal with the club became official yesterday. Bichette himself and president of baseball operations David Stearns are both slated to be in attendance for today’s presser. Stearns surely will also wind up fielding questions regarding yesterday’s late-night acquisition of Luis Robert Jr. from the White Sox in exchange for a package headlined by former top infield prospect Luisangel Acuña. With Bichette and Robert both in the fold, it will be interesting to hear from Stearns regarding whether he sees the team adding more to the lineup or if he now plans to turn his attention towards a starting rotation the club has been looking to upgrade with a front-end arm.

2. Red Sox presser later today:

In addition to the Mets, the Red Sox will also be hosting a press conference later today. The reason for the presser has not yet been stated, but after this morning’s Tristan Gray trade cleared a 40-man roster spot for Boston it seems likely that the club is poised to make the signing of southpaw Ranger Suarez official. The press conference is scheduled for 11am local time and could also provide an opportunity for chief baseball officer Craig Breslow to offer some insight into the team’s plans for the rest of the offseason. Presumably, the club’s top priority at this point is replacing Alex Bregman on the infield, though Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell could at least theoretically be called upon to take up third base and second base, respectively, if the club relies exclusively on internal options.

3. Dodgers 40-man move incoming:

While Bichette’s deal was made official last night and the Suarez deal figures to be made official later this morning, the Dodgers’ deal with star outfielder Kyle Tucker has not yet been finalized. That will surely happen in the coming days, but before then Los Angeles will need to make a 40-man roster move. That can be achieved by simply designating a player for assignment, but a minor trade similar to the Gray swap Boston made this morning is another possibility.

Twins To Acquire Tristan Gray

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8:13am: Catching prospect Nate Baez is headed to Boston in exchange for Gray’s services, as reported by Jeff Passan of ESPN. Baez, 24, was a 12th-round selection by Minnesota in the 2022 draft and hit .278/.371/.423 in 96 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year.

7:41am: The Red Sox are trading infielder Tristan Gray to the Twins, according to a report from Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The return Boston will receive in exchange for Gray’s services is not yet clear. Minnesota will need to make a corresponding move to add Gray to the 40-man roster, assuming the return to Boston is not a player on the 40-man.

Gray, 30 in March, was a 13th-round pick by the Pirates back in 2017 who has received sporadic playing time at the big league level over the past three seasons. After short stints with the Rays, Marlins, and A’s that added up to just 36 total plate appearances across the 2023 and ’24 seasons, Gray got his longest big league opportunity with Tampa last year. In 86 trips to the plate across 30 games, Gray slashed .231/.282/.410 with a wRC+ of 89 while splitting time between all four infield spots. He was traded to the Red Sox at the outset of the offseason but is now on the move once again.

Interestingly, despite being a left-handed hitter Gray did his best work against fellow southpaws. Two of his three home runs came against same-handed pitching last year, and his career slash line against lefties is .360/.407/.680 in 27 trips to the plate as opposed to a much less impressive .163/.223/.279 line in 95 trips to the plate against right-handers. Of course, using left/right splits with a sample size that small can often be misleading, so it’s fair to wonder how much Gray’s reverse platoon splits would hold up if given a longer leash in the majors. It’s hard to believe that Gray would be able to keep up a career OPS north of 1.000 against lefties at the big league level, if exposed to major league pitching long-term.

Regardless of the unusual shape of his production, Gray is a career .242/.310/.472 hitter at the Triple-A level with experience all over the infield. While he hasn’t gotten much of an opportunity to show what he can do in the majors to this point, perhaps Minnesota will be the place where he gets that chance. The Twins have Luke Keaschall at second base, Brooks Lee at shortstop, and Royce Lewis at third base headed into the season. Gray isn’t going to bump any of those high-upside talents from their positions, but each comes with a significant injury history that could create opportunities in the majors throughout the season.

Headed into Spring Training, Gray figures to compete for a utility infield role on the Twins’ bench. There’s plenty of internal competition for that role already. Kody Clemens and Austin Martin are likely viewed as the favorites for that sort of role given their solid production last season, and players like Vidal Brujan, Eric Wagaman, and Ryan Kreidler could also find themselves in the mix for a bench job. It’s a deep enough group with enough big league experience that Gray figures to face an uphill battle making the team’s roster out of camp, but perhaps injuries elsewhere on the roster could allow him to find his way back to the majors sometime this year.

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