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Quick Hits: Round Numbers, Red Sox Rotation, Astros

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If there’s something fans and baseball players can agree on, it’s a love of round numbers. Unfortunately, because of the pandemic-shortened seasons, many of baseball’s legendary Latino contemporaries may have to put away their obsession with certain benchmarks, writes ESPN’s Enrique Rojas. Albert Pujols needs 44 home runs to reach 700. Miguel Cabrera is 185 hits from 3,000 and 23 home runs from 500. Robinson Cano is just under 500 hits away from 3,000. Their ability to reach these markers is taking a hit with a shortened 2020. Given the changes in the game, there’s certainly a question about how long milestones of the past will continue to be held in such particular esteem. Rate statistics like wRC+ have already taken hold in some parts of the baseballsphere, and it’s certainly worth wondering if similar metrics will start to be used more in conjunction with traditional statistical benchmarks (300 wins, 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, etc.). Now let’s see what’s happening on the field…

  • It’s looking less and less likely that Eduardo Rodriguez will be back in time to start the Red Sox Opening Day contest, per Chris Cotillo of masslive.com. That puts Nathan Eovaldi in line to get the Opening Day nod. The rest of the Red Sox rotation remains a bit of a mess, certainly a far cry from the squad the took the team to the World Series just two seasons ago. But with Chris Sale on the shelf, David Price and Rick Porcello both gone, Boston is turning to the likes of Martin Perez, Ryan Weber, Chris Mazza, Jeffrey Springs, Colten Brewer and Matt Hall for rotation consideration. Collin McHugh, signed at the tail end of free agency, will not be ready by Opening Day. The Red Sox are counting on less-heralded performers than in year’s past, but there’s room for someone (or a few someone’s) to step up and stake their claim to a locker in Boston.
  • The Astros canceled their workout today after someone on staff became exposed to COVID-19, per Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (via Twitter). GM James Click released a statement: “As part of MLB’s testing and reporting plan, we were alerted that a staff member was potentially exposed to a COVID-positive individual outside the organization. Out of an abundance of caution, we have cancelled today’s workout.” These sorts of snow days may become commonplace, at least in these early days. Still, it’s an important measure. Credit the Astros for taking the necessary amount of caution here. [UPDATE: the Astros announced that workouts at Minute Maid Park will resume on Sunday.]

The Most Stacked Lineup Of The Millennium Missed The Playoffs

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With MVPs Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts sharing a lineup with thumpers like Justin Turner, Max Muncy, and Corey Seager, the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is stacked. That’s five players who have proved capable of posting 5-6 WAR seasons. We can even include A.J. Pollock in that group (6.8 fWAR in 2015) if we’re being generous – though it would open some eyes to see Pollack produce at that level again (even for a 60-game span). The ceiling hasn’t been set on youngsters like Will Smith and Gavin Lux, who could very well enter that elite territory with a best-case development future. There’s no denying that the Dodgers have a loaded lineup – but has there been a more MVP-loaded lineup in recent history?

The most stacked lineup of the last twenty years belongs to an 85-win, 3rd place St. Louis Cardinals team from 2003. “Most-stacked,” of course, isn’t exactly an official metric, so let me define it. Fangraphs explains fWAR in their glossary by classifying a “good player” as worth 3-4 fWAR, an “All-Star” to be worth 4-5 fWAR, and a “superstar” as worth 5-6 fWAR. But for the “most-stacked” lineup, we want the cream of the crop. Fangraphs classifies MVPs as those worth 6+ fWAR in a given season, so I went looking for the lineup with the most “MVPs”, and I found the unequivocal champ with the 2003 St. Louis Cardinals.

Not only did the Cardinals carry four MVP-caliber bats that season, but they’re the only team since 2000 to accomplish that feat. There have been four other teams since 2000 with three bats in the lineup worth 6+ fWAR (2004 Orioles, 2003 Braves, 2004 Cardinals, 2011 Red Sox) – but only Tony La Russa’s Cardinals fielded a quartet of such players.

Albert Pujols (9.5 fWAR), Jim Edmonds (6.3 fWAR), Edgar Renteria (6.3 fWAR), and Scott Rolen (6.2 fWAR) each put up an “MVP-like” seasons in 2003. The 23-year-old Pujols would have been a shoo-in to snag the actual NL MVP, but that was the era of supernova Barry Bonds, who won his third of four consecutive MVPs (10.2 fWAR) that season. 

The Cardinals finished 5th in the majors in runs scored with 876, second in total fWAR on offense, fourth in wRC+. J.D. Drew, Tino Martinez, and Bo Hart were productive members of the lineup, So Taguchi gave them 59 plate appearances with a 109 wRC+, and Eduardo Perez (122 wRC+) was a successful power bat off the bench. Only at catcher did they really struggle offensively, where Mike Matheny hit .252/.320/.356 to total 0.4 fWAR while starting 121 games behind the dish. In short, the offense did its part. 

Unfortunately, the entirety of the Cardinals pitching staff mustered just 7.3 fWAR. They finished 19th in ERA, 22nd in FIP, and 26th in home runs per nine innings. The bullpen was a particular disaster, finishing the season dead last in the majors with -1.8 fWAR. The rotation boasted legitimate arms in Woody Williams, Matt Morris, and less so, Brett Tomko. Dan Haren made an okay major league debut with 14 starts and a 5.08 ERA/4.57 FIP. 

That said, they could have done without the 55 starts from Garrett Stephenson, in what would be his last dash as an MLB hurler, Sterling Hitchcock in his second-to-last season, 40-year-old Jeff Fassero, and Jason Simontacchi, who was coming off a surprisingly decent rookie season at age-28. 

Giving 34 percent of their starts to suboptimal contributors didn’t pave the runway for the bullpen to take flight, but the relief crew struggled all their own. In particular, the main culprits were (again) Fassero (56 games, 6.52 ERA/6.13 FIP), Dustin Hermanson (23 games, 5.46 ERA/5.49 FIP), Russ Springer (17 games, 8.31 ERA/8.97 FIP), and Esteban Yan (39 games, 6.02 ERA/5.59 FIP). It didn’t help that injuries limited closer Jason Isringhausen to 40 games and 22 saves. He would otherwise anchor the Cardinals’ bullpens of that era. 

The 2003 Cardinals paint a picture of the difficulties in team-building. Four monster seasons making up half their everyday lineup, and still the Cardinals only managed to eke out a third-place finish. They underperformed their Pythagorean record, but only by three wins. The Cubs won the division with exactly 88 wins, overperforming their Pythagorean record by – you guessed it – three wins.

Things can go right – so right – in any given season, and it still might not be enough to counterbalance what goes wrong. That’s not to say that the 2020 Dodgers are in trouble – but their spot in the postseason is hardly assured. The ’03 Cardinals had the most MVP-level bats of any team in the past 20 years, and yet it was only enough for 85 wins. The margin for error will only be smaller in a short season.

Of course, here’s the other funny little part of baseball. Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds/Renteria couldn’t power their way to the postseason in 2003, but the foundation in St. Louis was solid. They did reach the postseason in 2002, 2004, 2005, and 2006. La Russa’s Cardinals capped off the run with a World Series title. That season, they finished with 83 wins, one less than the “disappointment” their stacked lineup produced in 2003.

So the most-stacked lineup of the millennium missed the playoffs, and the “worst” division winner of the millennium won the World Series. If that’s not a good primer for the chaos to come in a short season, I don’t know what is. 

Pujols To Cover Salaries Of Angels’ Furloughed Employees In Dominican Republic

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The Angels have been panned for implementing some of the industry’s most aggressive cuts throughout their scouting and player development staffs, and first baseman/designated hitter Albert Pujols is offering a helping hand to some of his countrymen who’ve been impacted. According to Maria Torres of the L.A. Times, Pujols will pay the salaries of the Angels’ furloughed employees at their academy in the Dominican Republic for the next five months.

Pujols becomes the latest established veteran to make a gesture along these lines, joining Dodgers lefty David Price and Rangers outfielder/DH Shin-Soo Choo — each of whom donated $1,000 to every minor leaguer in his respective organization to help cover lost wages. Pujols’ gesture will cost him roughly $180K, per Torres. Cynics and critics will surely point out that it’s a relatively minimal sum for Pujols, but that doesn’t detract from the fact that he was under no obligation to step up in this manner. And, those on the receiving end of his generosity are undoubtedly moved by his unexpected decision.

Meanwhile, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports that the Halos have at least slightly scaled back some of their planned budgetary cuts. Nine of the team’s scouts will return to work in light of MLB recently lifting some of the restrictions it had placed on in-person amateur scouting. Some of those scouts are working this week’s Perfect Game Showcase in Alabama, which began on Wednesday.

Albert Pujols Hasn’t Ruled Out Playing Beyond 2021 Season

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Albert Pujols’ ten-year, $240MM deal with the Angels is set to expire after the 2021 season, and it has been widely assumed that the slugger would retire once that contract is up.  However, while 2021 is “my last year under contract…that doesn’t mean I can’t keep playing,” Pujols told ESPN.com’s Alden Gonzalez.  “I haven’t closed that door.”

It should be observed that Pujols isn’t making a statement about his future in either direction, merely that he isn’t yet ready to make a decision that is still well over a year away.  “I’m taking it day by day, year by year, but you haven’t heard from my mouth that I’m going to retire next year, or that it’s going to be my last year, or that I’m going to keep playing,” Pujols said.  “I haven’t said any of that.  When that time comes, we’ll see.  Just because you have one year left on your contract doesn’t mean it’s your last year.  It could be, but it could not be.  God hasn’t put that in my heart yet.”

2022 will be Pujols’ age-42 season, and he has been beset by both injuries and an overall decline in performance over the last few years.  While surgeries on both his right elbow and left knee in 2018 allowed for Pujols to have his cleanest bill of health in some time last season, it didn’t translate to a resurgence at the plate, as he hit .244/.305/.430 with 23 home runs over 545 plate appearances.  Both Fangraphs (-2.6 fWAR) and Baseball Reference (-0.6 bWAR) rate Pujols as a sub-replacement level player from 2017-19, with Fangraphs giving him a negative fWAR in each of the last three seasons.

Barring a major late-career revival, it is hard to see how there could be much of a market for Pujols if he does wish to keep playing in 2022.  There isn’t much roster value in a 42-year-old who can only play first base — and who will still require regular DH days — and doesn’t offer much with the bat, and one would imagine Pujols might not have much interest in signing with a non-contender just for the sake of continuing to play.

As Gonzalez notes, there are some big statistical milestones still within reach for Pujols, who has 656 career homers (sixth all-time), 2075 RBI (fifth all-time), and 3202 hits (15th all-time).  Since the 2020 season will be greatly abbreviated and possibly canceled altogether, Pujols would surely have to play into 2022 to have a shot at joining Henry Aaron as the only players in the 700-homer/3500-hit club, and potentially break Aaron’s all-time record of 2297 career RBI.

While Pujols would surely love to make an even further impact on baseball’s record book, it remains to be seen if he would actually try to stick around long enough to achieve these benchmarks, especially since it is a foregone conclusion that he’ll be a first-ballot Hall Of Famer.  Of note, Pujols is also in line for a ten-year, $10MM personal services contract with the Angels organization that will kick in as soon as he retires; this deal was arranged when Pujols initially signed with the club.

Rumor Retrospection: The (Would-Be) Albert Pujols/Ryan Howard Trade Of 2010

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It was exactly a decade ago today that ESPN.com’s Buster Olney dropped a bombshell on the baseball world, reporting that the Phillies had held some internal discussions within their front office about the possibility of a blockbuster deal of first basemen — Phils slugger Ryan Howard to the Cardinals for Albert Pujols.  It would have been a one-for-one trade, with both players switching uniforms with two years remaining on their current contracts.

As Olney observed in his report, the concept might well have been just an idea floated within Philadelphia’s front office, rather than an actual proposal made to the Cards.  Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. went a step further when asked to comment on the rumor, calling it “Lies.  That’s a lie. I don’t know who you’re talking to, but that’s a lie.”  (Olney defended his reporting two days later, calling it “confirmed information” and he knew “exactly who said what to whom, and how sturdy the intent was.”)

It was an eyebrow-raising trade rumor at the time, and though this particular swap apparently didn’t come close to being a reality, the concept of a straight-up superstar-for-superstar deal is still fascinating ten years later since such deals are so rare.  And, in this particular instance, we can judge with a decade of hindsight how a Pujols-for-Howard trade might have worked out for both the Phillies and the Cardinals.

For St. Louis, the impact is simple — they might not have won the 2011 World Series without Pujols.  2011 marked what was, incredibly, the least-impressive of Pujols’ 11 MLB seasons, as he “only” hit .299/.366/.541 with 37 home runs over 651 PA.  This performance was just the warmup for an epic postseason, as Pujols posted a 1.155 OPS over 82 PA during the Cardinals’ 18 playoff games.  Pujols’ efforts included a three-homer night in Game 3 of the World Series, putting him alongside Babe Ruth and Reggie Jackson as the only men (Pablo Sandoval joined the club in 2012) to ever hit three home runs in a Series game.

Could the Cardinals have won a title with Howard in Pujols’ place?  It’s possible, as while Howard wasn’t quite as productive as Pujols during the 2011 regular season, Howard still hit .276/.353/.505 and 31 homers.  Who’s to say how those numbers might have differed in a new ballpark and a new environment as a Cardinal rather than as a Phillie; Howard, a St. Louis native, might have thrived with his hometown team, or perhaps struggled under the added pressure.

What likely doesn’t happen in this what-if scenario, however, is the nasty injury Howard suffered in his (and the Phillies’) last at-bat of the 2011 season.  Making the final out of the 2011 NLDS, Howard tore his Achilles tendon leaving the batters’ box to run out a grounder, and he didn’t return to action until July 6, 2012.  It ended up being a career-altering injury for Howard, as while he was already showing a tiny bit of decline from his prime years and any sort of dropoff for a power hitter isn’t uncommon as he enters his 30’s, the before-and-after of Howard’s Achilles injury is jarring.  From 2012-16, Howard hit only .226/.292/.427 over 2122 PA.

The Phillies lost that 2011 NLDS to, ironically, the Cardinals.  It was the second straight year the Phillies had fallen short in the playoffs after a dominant regular season, and it ultimately proved to be the end of that great era of Philadelphia baseball.  In the eight years since, the Phillies have yet to enjoy another winning season, only managing an even .500 record on two occasions (2012, 2019).  While Howard was a big part of the Phillies’ success in 2010 and 2011, replacing him with Pujols’ next-level production might well have been the difference in a World Series victory in either 2010, 2011, or both seasons.

The other major side effect of this trade is what happens after the 2012 season.  A little over a month after Olney’s report, the Phillies signed Howard to a five-year, $125MM extension covering the 2012-16 seasons.  Since Howard was already 30 years old at the time of the extension and under contract for two more years, there was a pretty immediate and negative reaction to the Phillies’ decision, and while the Achilles injury wasn’t foreseen, the deal indeed ended up being a bust for the Phils.

That said, does Howard still ink an extension if he ends up with St. Louis in this alternate reality?  As Olney noted, the Cardinals weren’t making progress with Pujols on an extension, so they could have had interest in Howard as a potential long-term replacement.  The difference, however, could’ve been that the Cards might have waited at least a season before locking Howard up.  Looking back at past extensions for such Cardinals notables as Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, or Paul Goldschmidt, the team has tended to wait until just before the pending free agent’s final season under contract to finalize a new deal.  A Cardinals/Howard extension could been potentially lesser in both years and dollars, if Howard has performed for the Cards in 2010 as he did in the real world (.276/.353/.505 with 31 home runs) for Philadelphia.  While still strong numbers, they nonetheless represented a step back from the 50 homers Howard averaged every season from 2006-09, while also batting .278/.379/.589.

As for Pujols, he did depart St. Louis after that 2011 World Series title, signing a ten-year, $240MM deal with the Angels that still has two seasons remaining.  While the Phillies were willing to splurge on Howard, extending Pujols would’ve cost twice the years and almost twice the money as Howard’s extension.  Maybe the Phils (perhaps flush off Pujols leading them to a championship or two) would have decided that Pujols was worth the extra investment and signed him to a similar extension.  Assuming the Pujols in this multiverse declined at the same pace as our universe’s Pujols did with the Angels, such a deal could have left the Phillies with an even bigger contractual albatross on their hands….especially if the Pujols-led 2010 Phils or 2011 Phils hadn’t won a World Series, leaving the team without even a “flags fly forever” silver lining.

Another route is that the Phils work out a more creative extension with Pujols, perhaps overwriting the terms of his 2010-11 salaries to give him more money sooner and less money on the back end in his decline years.  Or, in what might have been ultimately the best-case scenario for Philadelphia, the team could have just let Pujols depart for free agency after the 2011 season.  That would have left room in the Phils’ budget and a hole at first base, which could have put the team in the market for another of that offseason’s top free agent first basemen — Prince Fielder.

Needless to say, such a major trade would’ve greatly altered the last decade of Major League Baseball, and likely swung at least one World Series result.  Given how the last ten years played out for the Phillies, maybe there’s someone from that club’s front office who, if this trade proposal indeed never got past the internal discussion phase, wishes they’d picked up the phone to at least give the Cards a call.

AL Notes: Red Sox, Rusney, Sale, Indians, Pujols

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Remember Rusney Castillo? Signed to a seven-year, $72.5MM contract in August 2014, the Cuban outfielder had a rough season in the majors with the Red Sox the next year and has barely appeared in the majors since. The Red Sox have minimized their luxury-tax bill by keeping Castillo in the minors, and he’s likely to stay with Triple-A Pawtucket this season, but he’ll be a free agent thereafter. The 32-year-old discussed his status with Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald, saying: “My goal remains the same: I want to make it to the big leagues. And if given the opportunity, give 100% to Boston. That’s the goal, to get up there.”  As Mastrodonato notes, there’s at least an outside chance Castillo will return to Boston late in the season if the team’s well under the tax threshold by then (he’s due a $14.3MM salary, so it could be a tall order to fit him in). Castillo will first have to impress in Pawtucket for that to happen, though. He wasn’t great at the highest level of the minors in 2019, when he hit .278/.321/.448 with 17 home runs in 493 plate appearances.

  • Sticking with the Red Sox, ace Chris Sale has been on the mend from 2019 elbow problems and a recent bout of pneumonia, but he’s recovering well. Sale’s “progressing quickly and could begin to face live hitters soon,” Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes. However, it’s not clear whether Sale will be ready for the start of the season. The 30-year-old had a stunning amount of difficulty preventing runs in 2019, when his ERA ballooned from 2.11 the prior season to a career-worst 4.40, but most of his other numbers looked fine. Sale notched a 3.39 FIP/2.93 xFIP with 13.32 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9, suggesting he’s still a front-of-the-rotation talent.
  • Indians closer Brad Hand turned in excellent overall production yet again in 2019, but his effectiveness waned to a worrisome degree from late June through the end of the season. That was thanks in part to injuries that limited him to 57 1/3 innings – his fewest in more than a half-decade. Hand dealt with left arm fatigue that kept him out of action for a large portion of September, and he ended the year with his worst average fastball velocity (92.9 mph, compared to 94.1 in 2018) since 2012. “For whatever reason this tired arm affected my arm slot and pitches,” Hand told Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com, adding, “This year I’ll probably take a few more steps and stay ahead of it.” Manager Terry Francona’s hopeful that Hand will build up his velocity slowly this spring, as opposed to maxing out before the season starts. This is the last guaranteed year on Hand’s contract, but if he continues to hold his own, it’s hard to believe the Indians (or, if they trade him, another team) won’t exercise his $10MM club option for 2021.
  • Angels manager Joe Maddon will sit down with first baseman/designated hitter Albert Pujols nearer to the season to discuss his 2020 role, per Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. The 40-year-old future Hall of Famer appeared in 131 games last season, but it went down as the third straight campaign in which he logged below-replacement-level numbers. Pujols batted .244/.305/.430 with 23 homers and minus-0.2 fWAR over 545 plate appearances. The majority of his work came at first, though he may have to battle Tommy La Stella for reps at the position this season. And Pujols probably won’t get much time at DH because of the presence of Shohei Ohtani.

Quick Hits: Pujols, Wacha, Encarnacion, Kapler

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Unsurprisingly, Angels first baseman/designated hitter Albert Pujols has no plans to retire prior to 2020 or ’21 – the final two seasons of his 10-year, $240MM contract. Pujols, who will turn 40 during the upcoming offseason, told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register: “Whether it’s tomorrow or in spring training, if I feel one day the fire is not there, it doesn’t matter how much money is left on my contract, it’s time to go. But I don’t see that happening. Because this year this is the most fun I had because I was healthy and I was able to do things I wasn’t able to do in the past.” Pujols underwent multiple surgeries a year ago, causing his season to end in August, but the future Hall of Famer has hung in there from start to finish in 2019. While his overall production hasn’t been good, Pujols has managed to hit 23 home runs, leaving him four short of tying the legendary Willie Mays (660) for fifth on the all-time list. If healthy, Pujols may have a shot at reaching the hallowed 700-HR mark sometime before his contract runs out. He’ll earn $59MM during that two-year span.

Elsewhere around baseball…

  • Still just one game up on the Brewers in the NL Central, the Cardinals might not even make it to the NLDS this year. If the Redbirds do get that far, though, it’s “unlikely” injured right-hander Michael Wacha will factor into their plans, according to general manager Michael Girsch (via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Wacha, who suffered a mild strain of his pitching shoulder Wednesday, won’t be able to pick up a ball for at least five to seven days, per Hummel. Fortunately, Wacha doesn’t have any structural damage, nor is this shoulder injury related to previous issues he has dealt with in that area. Manager Mike Shildt is optimistic Wacha will pitch again this season, but it appears that will require the Cardinals to advance to the NLCS.
  • Yankees slugger Edwin Encarnacion still hasn’t returned from the left oblique strain he incurred Sept. 12, and it doesn’t look like a sure bet he’ll play in either of the team’s last two regular-season games. Encarnacion said Friday that he’s not “mentally over” the injury, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News relays. It remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to overcome the issue by the time the Yankees’ ALDS matchup against the Twins starts Oct. 4.
  • The Phillies have folded in back-to-back years under manager Gabe Kapler, leading to speculation that the club could fire him at season’s end. Kapler spoke about his status Friday, telling Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer and other reporters: “It’s not something I’m thinking about right now. It’s not something I’m worried about and haven’t had any conversations about it.” Kapler at least “seems safe for the weekend,” Breen writes, but the Phillies could choose to go in another direction after that. The Phillies finished 80-82 under Kapler in his rookie campaign as a manager in 2018, and even after an incredibly active offseason, they’ll wind up with an almost identical record this year. They’re an even 80-80 with two games remaining.

AL Notes: Bauer, Castellanos, Pujols, Orioles

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Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer turned in a terrific performance Thursday in a win over the Tigers, striking out 10 and yielding three earned runs on five hits and two walks in 6 2/3 innings. Despite Bauer’s importance to the playoff-contending Indians, his name has been frequently bandied about in trade rumors this summer. As a result, Thursday could’ve been one of his last starts as a member of the Tribe. Asked after the game if the rumors have been on his mind, Bauer told Mandy Bell of MLB.com and other reporters: “Nope. Don’t think about it.” Notably, though, Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti did address the team regarding the deadline “to make sure no one was blindsided by any discussions, especially Bauer,” Bell writes.

  • The Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos is likely a more realistic trade candidate than Bauer, but the right fielder suggested Thursday he’s not fully convinced a deal will come together before the deadline. Castellanos said (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News) that “I wouldn’t be shocked if I don’t get traded. Everybody thought I’d get traded last trade deadline. Everybody thought I’d get traded this offseason. There were people who thought I’d get traded in spring training.” With an extension between the non-contending Tigers and Castellanos appearing to be out of the question, it’s highly probable the team will part with him this month unless there’s no interest from elsewhere. Regardless, Castellanos indicated to McCosky that he has made peace with whatever happens and is more focused on what happens on the field, where he has been on an offensive tear of late.
  • Angels first baseman Albert Pujols exited the team’s game Thursday with left hamstring tightness, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register was among those to report (Twitter links). It doesn’t seem like an issue that’s going to lead to an IL stint, though, as manager Brad Ausmus said afterward Pujols will miss a small amount of time or none at all. The Hall of Fame-bound 39-year-old has appeared in 76 games this season and hit .243/.306/.439 (96 wRC+) with 14 home runs in 314 plate appearances.
  • Thursday was the one-year anniversary of the Orioles-Dodgers blockbuster that sent former O’s franchise player Manny Machado to Los Angeles. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun revisits the swap in a piece focusing on outfield prospect Yusniel Diaz, the headlining part of the Orioles’ five-player return. Diaz didn’t log great production with Baltimore’s Double-A affiliate after the trade last year, and he told Meoli via an interpreter he felt “a lot of pressure” trying to make good on the trade. That pressure has died down, though, and Diaz is now having a better season than last as a member of the Orioles’ Double-A affiliate. The 22-year-old has progressed with the help of Double-A hitting coach Keith Bodie, as Meoli details in his piece.

Quick Hits: Pujols, Dodgers, Haniger, Dipoto, Bichette

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On July 31, 2000, the Padres and Cardinals swung a trade deadline deal that sent Heathcliff Slocumb and prospect Ben Johnson to San Diego in exchange for catcher Carlos Hernandez and minor league utilityman Nate Tebbs.  The swap is little more than a footnote in team history, though it could’ve been a far more legendary trade had Johnson been replaced with another prospect who was on the Padres’ radar — Albert Pujols.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch details the intriguing history of that would-be deal, and how the Cardinals front office had to make a decision between including Pujols (a famously unheralded 13th-round pick in the 1999 draft) or Johnson, a much more highly-touted fourth-rounder from that same draft.  Pujols showed so much promise in his early pro career, however, that the team ultimately decided to move Johnson and spend more time evaluating a potential hidden gem.  “I really didn’t want to give up Ben, either, but that’s why you always have your top guys scout your own system,” said Walt Jocketty, then the Cardinals’ general manager.  “You have to know your own, like Pujols. There was no way we could trade him. No way, just based on what our guys had seen in a short period of time. They said, ‘I think he’s going to be something special – or has a chance to be.’ When I saw it myself, it was obvious.”

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • Even with Rich Hill on the IL for an undetermined period of time, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman isn’t planning to make starting pitching a particular focus at the trade deadline.  “I don’t see it being an area where we spend a lot of energy,” Friedman told reporters, including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “Could that change? Of course. But I don’t expect it right now. We don’t expect it to be an area of need.”  In fact, Friedman didn’t think his team had any obvious weak spots, which perhaps isn’t a surprise given the Dodgers’ league-best 54-25 record.  Instead, the front office will look out for “impact players,” since such additions are “what moves the needle in October.”
  • In an interview on “The Front Office” on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link), Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto reiterated that his trade deadline efforts will be directed towards moving veteran players.  Younger and more controllable members of the Seattle roster are less likely to be moved, since they are part of what Dipoto hopes “is a very quick turnaround” within 12-18 months.  “Some of the guys that we do have here that attract the most trade attention, particularly guys like Mitch Haniger, they’re critical to our growth.  So at some point, you do have to build around something,” Dipoto said.
  • With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio now in the majors, speculation is swirling in Toronto about when Bo Bichette could make his Blue Jays debut.  A consensus top-12 prospect in the sport prior to the season, Bichette has a .256/.316/.453 slash line and three homers over 96 Triple-A plate appearances in 2019, while missing over six weeks due to a fractured hand.  As a result, Jays GM Ross Atkins told Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith that Bichette still needs a bit more seasoning in his first stint at the Triple-A level.  “We’d really like to see some time in triple-A and have him get his legs under him and have a good strong foundation before we have that discussion [about a promotion],” Atkins said.  For comparison’s sake, Nicholson-Smith notes that Biggio had 174 PA and Guerrero 162 PA for Triple-A Buffalo before getting the call to the Show.

Reds Were Runners-Up For Albert Pujols In 2011-12 Offseason

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The Angels are making a rare interleague visit to St. Louis this weekend, marking Albert Pujols’ first on-field visit back to his former city since he left the Cardinals following the 2011 season.  He could have been a much more frequent visitor to Busch Stadium, however, if he had remained within the NL Central, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that the Reds were the proverbial mystery team that came closest to keeping Pujols away from the Angels in free agency.

Cincinnati offered Pujols a ten-year, $225MM offer, which fell just short of the ten-year, $240MM contract Pujols ultimately accepted from the Angels.  The Marlins actually offered more money than either the Angels or Reds, though Pujols turned down Miami’s ten-year, $275MM offer out of concerns that the contract didn’t contain a no-trade clause, and as Nightengale puts it, “Pujols [was] fearful of the Marlins being the Marlins.”

Walt Jocketty was the Reds’ general manager at the time, and had a long relationship with Pujols due to Jocketty’s time as the Cardinals’ GM from 1994 to 2007.  “We thought we were going to get him,” Jockey told Nightengale.  “We thought he would certainly give our organization a lift with his presence, on and off the field.”

After suffering through nine consecutive losing seasons from 2001-2009, the Reds won the NL Central in 2010 but were then unceremoniously swept out of the NLDS by the Phillies (a series that saw the Reds become just the second team to be no-hit in a postseason game, after Roy Halladay shut them down in Game One).  That taste of the postseason gave way to a disappointing 79-83 record in 2011, which led to an aggressive offseason for Jocketty’s front office.  Cincinnati added Mat Latos and Sean Marshall that winter, and indeed went on to regain the NL Central crown in 2012 and then reached the playoffs again as a wild card team in 2013.

Needless to say, adding Pujols would have been by far the biggest possible transaction for the Reds, and the signing would’ve had an incredible ripple effect on recent baseball history.  The player who would’ve been most notably impacted, of course, is Joey Votto.  Aside from six games as a left fielder in his rookie year, Votto has never played anywhere besides first base and (in interleague games) DH in the majors, and a position change would’ve seemingly been unlikely.  While Pujols had played a handful of games at third base for St. Louis in 2011, that marked his first action at the hot corner since 2002, so he wasn’t going to be moved away from first base.

The most plausible scenario of a Pujols signing is simply that Votto would have become an enormous trade chip for the Reds.  Votto had already established himself as a star, and since he wouldn’t have become a free agent until after the 2013 season, the Reds could have netted a hefty return for his services.

As things turned out, the Reds ended up spending their exact planned investment on Pujols into a new extension for Votto, inking him to a ten-year, $225MM deal covering the 2014-2023 seasons (after Votto’s original three-year deal with Cincinnati was up).  This wasn’t the only money the Reds splashed around that spring, as they also extended Brandon Phillips on a six-year, $72.5MM contract.

It’s hard to argue that keeping Votto over Pujols was a bad move for Cincinnati, as Votto has decidedly outhit Pujols over the last nine seasons.  There’s even some question as to whether Pujols could have even remained on the field if he had stayed in the National League, as the slugger said his decision to join the Angels “worked out perfect for me….With all of the injuries and everything that happened to me, it was the best-case scenario for me playing in the American League with a DH. It hasn’t been the best years of my career, but I’m still producing.”

Still, it’s worth at least guessing at how a Pujols-in-Cincinnati scenario could have developed.  For one, the Reds would’ve had Pujols off their books following the 2021 season, whereas they’re still committed to Votto through 2023 (and Votto’s power numbers have dropped precipitously over the last two seasons).  In terms of shorter-term results, who knows if the combination of Pujols and whatever pieces the Reds could have obtained in a hypothetical Votto trade could have put the Reds over the top in 2012 or 2013, though Pujols missed a big chunk of the 2013 season once his foot problems began to worsen.

Of course, who knows — maybe the Pujols-led Reds would’ve lost the 2012 or 2013 World Series to whichever team Votto ended up joining.  His availability that winter creates a whole new set of alternate realities, as one can not only look back at the 2011-12 free agent market for teams in need of first basemen, but it’s quite possible that teams without a defined need at first might have changed their plans if Votto was on the table (in the same way that the Reds weren’t seen a suitor at all for Pujols).

Pujols signed with the Angels in early December, so if he signs with the Reds in this fantasy scenario, that gives Cincinnati much of the offseason to market their younger first baseman.  Maybe it’s Votto who ends up in an Angels uniform after the Halos missed out on their top free agent choice.  The 2011-12 offseason saw the Marlins splurge on Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell in free agency, so maybe they could’ve decided to augment those free agents with a first baseman in a Votto trade?  If Votto is still a Red in late January 2012 when Victor Martinez tears his ACL, would the Tigers have spoken to the Reds about Votto rather than sign Prince Fielder?  The possibilities are endless.

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