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Diamondbacks, Aaron Blair Agree To Minor League Deal

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The D-backs are bringing one of their first-round picks back to the organization, signing right-hander Aaron Blair to a minor league contract, per MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). He’s repped by PSI Sports Managament.

Blair, 27, was a supplemental first-rounder out of Marshall University in 2013. He ranked among baseball’s 100 best prospects per Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus in both the 2014-15 and 2015-16 offseasons. But while Blair was a fast riser who thrived during his first extended looks at Double-A and Triple-A, his career stalled out upon reaching the Majors.

Arizona included Blair in the franchise-altering trade that also sent Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte to Atlanta in exchange for Shelby Miller. He made his MLB debut with the Braves in April 2016, but from 2016-17 he combined to allow 64 earned runs with a lackluster 49-to-39 K/BB ratio over the life of 73 innings.

Blair eventually underwent surgery to repair a torn capsule in his pitching shoulder in April 2018 — a procedure that wound up sidelining him for not only the 2018 season but all of the 2019 campaign as well. After pitching just 2 2/3 innings between the Majors and Triple-A over the past two seasons, Blair will face an uphill battle in pitching his way back to the big leagues, but he’ll do so in his original organization — one where he had more success than he did at any point during his Braves tenure.

MLBTR Video: Betts/Price/Maeda Deals Official; MLB Considering Radical Changes To Playoff Structure

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An action-packed day in MLB, as Mookie Betts, David Price (and Joc Pederson) are officially Dodgers, Kenta Maeda is officially a member of the Twins, MLB is considering radical changes to the playoff structure, a former pitcher and trash can victim is suing the Astros, and the Diamondbacks lock up Nick Ahmed. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd makes sense of everything in our latest video:

Diamondbacks Extend Nick Ahmed

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The Diamondbacks have announced a long-term deal with shortstop Nick Ahmed. Ahmed will earn a guaranteed $32.5MM over the four years covered by the deal, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports on Twitter.

Ahmed and the Snakes had been engaged in an arbitration standoff, with the player seeking $6.95MM and the team at $6.6MM. This new deal will therefore tack on three further seasons and over $25MM in new commitments. Ahmed had been due to reach free agency at the end of the 2020 season. He is a client of Meister Sports Management.

The structure includes a $1.5MM signing bonus, per Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (Twitter links). Ahmed will earn $6MM for the coming season, take home $7.5MM apiece in 2021 and 2022, and receive $10MM in the final year of the deal. There’s also a $500K escalator for each Gold Glove award that Ahmed wins, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

At first glance, it’s a heck of an outlay for a player who’s entering his age-30 campaign without so much as a single league-average offensive season under his belt. Ahmed is a career .236/.289/.387 hitter through 2,209 plate appearances at the game’s highest level.

Then again, depending upon one’s perspective — and, as ever, the way things actually play out — this could be a bargain. It seems safe to say that the Diamondbacks do not put much stock in the UZR metric, by which Ahmed has been a good but hardly remarkable performer at short. By measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average, on the other hand, Ahmed is an exceptional performer with the glove. He has also earned the National League Gold Glove in each of the past two campaigns.

But that’s only touching the surface of the intrigue when it comes to Ahmed. Long a marginal performer with the bat, he trended up to a career-best 92 wRC+ last season. Ahmed cracked the .300 OBP barrier for the first time and drove 19 balls out of the park. It’s probably not reasonable to anticipate much beyond league-average offense (if that) going forward, but the arrow is obviously pointed in the right direction given that Ahmed has been able to improve both his plate discipline (career-best .46 BB/K ratio) and power (career-best .183 ISO) at the same time.

So, what’s the total package worth? Even after the offensive uptick last year, Ahmed was only a 2.4 WAR performer by measure of Fangraphs’ UZR-based valuation. But Baseball-Reference, which utilizes DRS, pegged him at 4.5 WAR. If indeed Ahmed truly wields an elite glove and provides anything approaching the league mean with the bat, he could handily out-perform the contract. If things really click at the plate, this could even turn into a truly high-value pact. Of course, there’s also equivalent downside if Ahmed’s offensive/defensive out-making trends reverse course.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Diamondbacks Sign Jon Jay, Edwin Jackson

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The Diamondbacks have announced minor-league deals with outfielder Jon Jay and righty Edwin Jackson. The club also confirmed previously reported signings of John Hicks and Trayce Thompson.

All four veterans will be in MLB camp with the Snakes. It stands to reason that all will have some shot at earning a big-league job to open the season. The D-Backs will have a 26th roster spot to work with and could go in any number of directions to utilize it.

Jay, 34, is at his best a high-average hitter that can handle any outfield spot defensively. He’s looking for a bounceback after a rough 2019 season. While he swung a solidly above-average bat in his early days in the league, Jay has slashed just .271/.337/.348 since the start of the 2015 season. Jay would earn $1.5MM in the majors, with $1.75MM in possible incentives, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link).

The 36-year-old Jackson will regrettably not be competing in camp for a chance to extend his MLB record of pitching with 14 different organizations. He spent time with Arizona back in 2010. Jackson had a brutal 9.58 ERA in 67 2/3 big-league frames last year, but was able to spin 92 innings of 3.33 ERA ball in the season prior. The D-Backs won’t expect much, but can hope that Jackson represents rotation depth and perhaps a long relief option.

Diamondbacks Sign Trayce Thompson To Minor-League Deal

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The Diamondbacks signed outfielder Trayce Thompson to a minor-league contract, per a tweet from their Triple-A affiliate in Reno. He will receive an invite to MLB spring training.

Thompson, now 28, compiled 589 MLB plate appearances between 2015-18. He combined for a lackluster .206/.276/.389 line (78 wRC+) over that time. Thompson has shown some power, popping 22 home runs. Unfortunately, a career 28% strikeout rate has proven too much to overcome.

He failed to crack the majors in 2019. He instead spent the entire season with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate. It was more of the same for the right-handed hitter, who slashed .219/.294/.482 with 24 homers but an unpalatable 36.1% strikeout rate.

He has MLB experience at all three outfield positions and logged playing time relatively equally across the grass in Columbus last season. If the out-of-options Thompson cracks the Diamondbacks’ roster with a strong spring training, he’d have to remain on the club’s active roster or be exposed to waivers.

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Diamondbacks?

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It has been an eventful offseason, perhaps unexpectedly, in Arizona. The club stayed on the periphery of the NL Wild Card race much of last season, but they never had especially strong postseason odds. Ultimately, they did fall short, finishing four games back of the Brewers for the final playoff spot. They were certainly not a bad team, going 85-77, but they were hardly dominant.

Entering the offseason, the club looked positioned to be relatively active. They had some payroll flexibility already, and they freed up more room on the books by non-tendering Taijuan Walker and Steven Souza, Jr. Nevertheless, it came as a bit of a surprise to see the Snakes act as aggressively as they have this winter.

That activity started in mid-December, when they brought in Madison Bumgarner from the division-rival Giants on a backloaded five-year, $85MM contract. Shortly thereafter came the signing of Kole Calhoun on a two-year, $16MM deal (with a club option for a third year). Calhoun, the Angels’ decision to decline his team option for 2020 notwithstanding, had a productive bounceback effort in 2019, putting up a .232/.325/.467 slash (108 wRC+) with his customary solid defense. He’ll presumably line up alongside the recently-extended David Peralta as the Snakes’ top two corner outfielders.

Between Calhoun and Peralta will be a Marte, but not the one who manned center most often in the desert last offseason. Starling Marté was brought aboard in a trade with Pittsburgh this week, a move MLBTR readers generally approved of. That frees up star Ketel Marte to move back to second base, where the club got mediocre production last season and faced the free agent departure of Wilmer Flores.

Beyond Ketel Marte, there’s not a true star on the roster, but there are very few obvious weaknesses, either. Carson Kelly, Christian Walker, Eduardo Escobar, and Nick Ahmed round out the projected lineup. Bumgarner and Robbie Ray figure to front a rotation hoping for full seasons from midseason trade acquisition Zac Gallen and the returning Luke Weaver.

There’s probably not many more noteworthy moves coming this offseason. Per Roster Resource, the Starling Marté trade brought the club to an estimated $123MM payroll. That’s generally in line with their expenditures in recent seasons. Furthermore, GM Mike Hazen threw cold water on the idea of blowing past prior spending levels in December.

So, if this is indeed the team Arizona will head into the season with, just how good are they? Can they threaten the perennial powerhouse Dodgers in the NL West? Have they done enough to at least position themselves as a Wild Card favorite?

(poll link for app users)

Yoan Lopez Switches Agencies

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Diamondbacks right-hander Yoan Lopez has made a change in his representation, according to reporter Robert Murray (Twitter link).  Lopez is now being represented by Wasserman.

Lopez is coming off his first full Major League season, as he posted a 3.41 ERA, 2.47 K/BB rate, and 6.2 K/9 over 60 2/3 innings out of Arizona’s bullpen.  While the bottom-line results were solid, there were some notable red flags in Lopez’s performance, namely some of the highest exit velocity and hard-hit ball rates of any pitcher in the sport.  With a .370 xwOBA that soared above his .298 wOBA, Lopez seemingly benefited greatly from a .233 BABIP that saw much of opposing batters’ solid contact go for naught.  In terms of ERA predictors, Lopez had a 5.03 FIP, 4.47 xFIP, and 4.60 SIERA that all greatly exceeded his 3.41 ERA.

There’s clearly a lot to improve on if Lopez is to continue as a reliable member of the Snakes’ bullpen, though he did display some durability in appearing in 70 games, and he was effective against both left-handed (.723 OPS) and right-handed (.728 OPS) batters.  He also averages a blistering 96.3 mph on his fastball.

Lopez might be best known for receiving the highest bonus ever given to an international amateur player at the time of his signing back in January 2015.  That $8.27MM bonus single-handedly put the D’Backs over the old international spending limit, thus forcing the club to pay a 100 percent tax on the overage and placing the D’Backs into two years of limitations in the international market.  Arizona was limited to signings of $300K or less in two consecutive July 2 signing periods (2015-16 and 2016-17), which was seen as one of the critical errors of the Dave Stewart/Tony La Russa front office.

Some struggles both on and off the field in the minor leagues led to some speculation as to whether Lopez would even reach the Show, though the hard-throwing righty did finally get on track and now has 69 2/3 MLB innings under his belt.  He remains under team control through the 2024 season, so Lopez’s move to Wasserman seemingly wasn’t made with a forthcoming trip to the open market in mind.

MLBTR has already noted Lopez’s agency change in our Agency Database. If you see any notable errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Indians Had Interest In Starling Marte

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The Indians’ offseason has largely been dominated by the specter of cutting payroll (such as the Corey Kluber trade to the Rangers or the persistent trade rumors around Francisco Lindor) rather than major acquisitions, the team’s signing of Cesar Hernandez notwithstanding.  However, it seems as though the Tribe at least considered a significant addition, as Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that “the Indians were in on” Starling Marte before the Pirates dealt the center fielder to the Diamondbacks earlier this week.

The nature of the Tribe’s offer to Pittsburgh isn’t known, though we can at least make a speculative comparison to what the Pirates received from the D’Backs — $250K in international bonus pool money, and two interesting but non-elite prospects (shortstop Liover Peguero and right-hander Brennan Malone) who are each at least two or three years away from reaching the majors.  Since the Bucs sent just $1.5MM in cash to Arizona as part of the deal, the D’Backs also took on almost all of the financial obligations for Marte, who is owed $11.5MM in 2020 and is controllable via a $12.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2021 season.

It could be that the Pirates simply preferred Peguero and Malone to whatever prospects were floated by the Tribe, and that money wasn’t a primary difference between Cleveland’s offer and Arizona’s offer.  Still, assuming the finances would’ve broken down in a similar fashion, adding $10MM for Marte’s salary would’ve elevated the Indians’ 2020 payroll to a little beyond $106.5MM, as per Roster Resource.  That still represents a notable step down from the $150MM+ payrolls the Indians had at the end of the 2017 and 2018 seasons, or even the $129.3MM year-end payroll from 2019.  Since Marte’s 2021 option is likely to be exercised, Cleveland could have still found payroll room considering that Carlos Santana and Brad Hand could both come off the books via club options of their own, Hernandez is a free agent, plus who knows what other payroll space could be carved out by future trades (such as a Lindor deal).

As Hoynes notes, the Tribe’s interest in Marte indicates that the team could still be willing to spend to upgrade its 26-man roster, whether such a move happens in the offseason or perhaps closer to the trade deadline.  Marte would have been a clear boost to Cleveland’s shaky outfield picture right now, though the Indians have enough outfielders in the mix that they might prefer to see which (if any) of those players steps up to become a reliable regular performer before looking at bringing any new players onto the roster.  Oscar Mercado currently looks like the only Tribe outfielder slated for true everyday duty, as Jake Bauers, Delino DeShields, Greg Allen, Jordan Luplow, Bradley Zimmer and (when he isn’t at DH) Franmil Reyes are all vying for regular playing time.

Ketel Marte To See Time In Center

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The Arizona Diamondbacks have put together one of the more intriguing rosters as we approach spring camp, and they’ve done so while maintaining flexibility. The Starling Marte acquisition, for instance, secures center field as GM Mike Hazen had hoped – secondarily allowing star Ketel Marte to stay at second base –  but that doesn’t mean Ketel’s days in center are done. The Martes could very well play side-by-side in the outfield against tough lefties while David Peralta or Kole Calhoun gets a breather, writes MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. Most of Arizona’s bench hits from the left side, though Ildemaro Vargas, Domingo Leyba, and Andy Young can all hit righty, making them candidates to spell Marte at second when he vacates. Let’s jump the the Junior Circuit to check in on the Mariners…

Red Sox To Interview Luis Urueta For Managerial Vacancy

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The Red Sox are interviewing Luis Urueta for the club’s open managerial position, according to Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes (Spanish-language link). He’s expected to speak with the club today via phone.

Urueta is presently the bench coach of the Diamondbacks, where he serves under skipper Torey Lovullo — who, like much of the top Arizona baseball ops leadership, came over from the Boston organization. The Snakes have given Urueta permission to interview, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (via Twitter).

The 39-year-old Urueta didn’t make it far as a professional player, but he has found quite a lot of success by climbing the ranks as a coach. His roots are in the D-Backs organization. The Colombian has also managed his home nation’s World Baseball Classic team and skippered the Dominican winter ball Licey Tigers.

Urueta’s background is generally similar to that of just-hired Mets manager Luis Rojas. Both clubs faced late hiring searches owing to the involvement of their prior managers in the Astros sign-stealing scandal. Urueta becomes the first Red Sox candidate known to have an interview; Mark Kotsay is also rumored as a potential target.

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