Diamondbacks Rumors

Starling Marte, Archie Bradley Drawing Trade Interest

By Mark Polishuk | August 30, 2020 at 10:58pm CDT

10:58PM: The Diamondbacks informed teams earlier this month that they were open to discussing almost anyone on the roster, the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro reports. Ketel Marte, Zac Gallen, and Christian Walker were among the club’s few untouchables.

6:14PM: With a 1-10 record over their last 11 games, the Diamondbacks are listening to offers heading into the trade deadline. The Snakes are “open” to discussing such major names as Starling Marte and Archie Bradley, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link). In a longer subscription-only notes post, Rosenthal reports that the Astros have shown interest in Bradley, while the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reports that the Yankees have “checked in” on Marte’s availability.

While the Yankees are loaded with outfielders on paper, injuries to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have thinned the depth, and Aaron Hicks just left today’s game with a potential injury to his leg. Marte would presumably immediately take over as the everyday center fielder, with Brett Gardner, Mike Tauchman, Clint Frazier, and Hicks if he’s healthy all handling corner outfield (and maybe DH alongside Mike Ford) duties until Judge and Stanton return.

Marte would also provide New York with potential longer-term help, as his contract contains a $12.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2021 season. Barring something unforeseen, the Yankees would surely exercise that option rather than let Marte leave for nothing, though they could potentially pick up Marte’s option and then flip him in another trade. Or, having Marte around to provide All-Star level production for at least one year could make the Yankees more open to moving Tauchman or Frazier in a deal this winter. (Assuming, hypothetically, that neither would be included as part of a Marte trade with Arizona in the first place.) Adding yet another outfielder with control could also spell the end of Gardner’s long tenure in the Bronx, as Gardner will himself be a free agent this winter if the Yankees decline their $10MM option on his services for 2021.

“The Yankees are believed to not want to add much, if any salary,” Sherman writes, which could be a complicating factor in a potential Marte trade. The veteran is earning the prorated portion of an original $11.5MM salary, and is owed a little under $2MM for the remainder of the 2020 campaign.

It was a little more than seven months ago that Marte was part of another major swap, coming to the D’Backs from the Pirates in a trade that Arizona thought would bolster the lineup of a potential contender. While Marte has done his part (entering today with a .322/.396/.458 slash line over 134 PA), the Diamondbacks as a whole have underachieved, leading to the team’s pivot to being deadline sellers.

The Astros were already known to be looking at Robbie Ray as a potential addition, and now have apparently cast their eyes towards another arm in Bradley. Like Marte, Bradley is also controlled through 2021, as Bradley has one more year of arbitration eligibility and should be due for a nice raise on his $4.1MM salary for 2020. The Astros could see Bradley as a boost to both their 2020 and 2021 teams, as Roberto Osuna’s uncertain injury situation might yet lead to Osuna missing 2021 due to Tommy John surgery.

The righty has performed well as Arizona’s closer, posting a 3.60 ERA, 10.8 K/9, and 4.00 K/BB rate over 10 innings entering today’s play. While Bradley hasn’t surrendered any homers, Statcast indicates that Bradley has enjoyed some good luck (a .318 wOBA that is far beneath his .418 xwOBA) considering all the hard contact he allows.

White Sox Interested In Lance Lynn, Robbie Ray, Dylan Bundy

By Mark Polishuk | August 29, 2020 at 11:11am CDT

11:11AM: The White Sox also have interest in Angels righty Dylan Bundy, Morosi tweets.

10:24AM: The White Sox are looking into the starting pitching market, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reporting that Rangers ace Lance Lynn is under consideration, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that Diamondbacks left-hander Robbie Ray has also been discussed (both links to Twitter).

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams and Connor Byrne recently put it, “Lynn is arguably the most coveted arm on the trade market.” The right-hander has a 1.59 ERA, 9.9 K/9, and 3.57 K/BB rate through 45 1/3 innings this season, and while advanced metrics hint at some inevitable ERA regression, those same numbers suggest Lynn is pitching at roughly the same level as he did in 2019, when he finished fifth in AL Cy Young Award voting.

Beyond only his performance this season, Lynn is under contract for an $8MM salary in 2021, which stands as a more than reasonable price if he keeps pitching this well. As big a trade chip as Lynn is, however, his pluses also make him a valuable asset to the Rangers, who are at least open to hearing offers for Lynn but maybe not likely to actually move him unless another team steps up with a big trade package.

It’s probably safe to assume that Ray is much more available, though the southpaw’s value has dramatically dropped off in the wake of a brutal start to the 2020 season. Control issues and the home run ball have plagued Ray, who has a 7.84 ERA and 31 walks over 31 innings, despite a 12.5 K/9. Despite Ray’s struggles, he has drawn interest from the Astros and other teams, with some clubs reportedly interested in deploying Ray as a reliever.

The White Sox have gotten very good results from Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, and Dallas Keuchel this season, but much less from a fourth/fifth starter mix that includes Gio Gonzalez, Reynaldo Lopez, and the injured Carlos Rodon. The league-wide perception, as least according to rival executives speaking with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, is that the Pale Hose will land a starter prior to Monday’s trade deadline. The bullpen has been a strength overall, though it is short on left-handed pitchers (such as Ray) since Aaron Bummer is still on the injured list.

Acquiring Ray would be a pure short-term rental move, since he is a free agent after the year. Prying Lynn away from Texas would cost the Sox quite a bit more in prospect capital, though it’s worth noting that the White Sox and Rangers have been rather frequent trading partners since Rick Hahn became Chicago’s general manager. The White Sox are firmly in the playoff race this year and plan to be contenders for the foreseeable future, so Lynn is the type of pitcher that would also boost their chances of winning in 2021.

Astros Interested In Robbie Ray, Matt Barnes

By Mark Polishuk | August 29, 2020 at 9:35am CDT

With a pitching staff ravaged by injuries, it isn’t any surprise that the Astros are exploring adding some hurlers at the deadline. Brittany Ghiroli and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required) report that two of Houston’s targets include Diamondbacks southpaw Robbie Ray and Red Sox reliever Matt Barnes.

Ray has been a popular figure in trade rumors for a couple of years, and the most recent round of speculation has had some teams interested in acquiring him as a relief pitcher due to his rough performance in 2020. Over seven starts, Ray has a 7.84 ERA in 31 innings, due in large part to a 2.6 HR/9 and a major loss of control — Ray has a league-leading 31 walks and six wild pitches. It’s possible Houston could be one of the teams eyeing Ray as a reliever, perhaps the team feels it can fix his control problems and again turn him into a solid starter.

Barnes has also had a tough go of it this season, and for some of the same reasons as Ray. Barnes has a 6.00 ERA over 12 IP out of Boston’s pen, with a 2.3 HR/9 and a career-worst 6.8 BB/9. As per Fangraphs, only 3.2% of Barnes’ offerings have resulted in soft contact this season, as he has a 45.2% hard-hit ball rate and 51.6% medium-hit rate.

The common element between the two pitchers is a lot of missed bats. Ray has a 12.5 K/9 this season and a 12.1 K/9 since the start of the 2017 season; in that same timeframe, Barnes has a 13.2 K/9, which includes an 11.3 K/9 in 2020. After ranking at or near the top of the league in strikeouts from 2017-19, Astros pitchers have combined for an 8.64 K/9 this season, ranked 21st of 30 teams.

Ray is a free agent after the season, while Barnes has one more year of arbitration eligibility before hitting the open market himself in the 2021-22 offseason. This extra year of control might mean Barnes could actually have a higher trade value than Ray at this point, despite Ray’s ability to start games. Astros GM James Click knows Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom well from their time together in the Rays front office, while Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen swung a very notable deal (the Zack Greinke blockbuster) with the Astros at least year’s deadline.

NL Notes: Mozeliak, Cards, Pina, Gausman, Bumgarner

By Mark Polishuk | August 27, 2020 at 10:46pm CDT

While the Cardinals are still going to explore trade deadline opportunities, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told The Athletic’s Mark Saxon and other reporters that his club faces something of a unique roster crunch due to the coronavirus outbreak that ravaged the Cards earlier this month. “I think that’s the biggest issue at hand for us, sort of navigating the health of the club vs. what potentially we could do in a trade,” Mozeliak said. “Candidly, the timing of it [the deadline] is not ideal for us, as we start to unwind people coming off of COVID back onto the roster….What it is to say is we haven’t been a team together, with the exception of the first five days together.”

With a whopping seven players still to be activated from the COVID-19 injured list, 40-man roster considerations will start to become a mounting concern for the Cardinals in the coming days, and certainly not everyone will be back before Monday’s trade deadline. One potential wrinkle, Mozeliak said, is that “other teams might be dealing with roster crunches, too, as they navigate Aug. 31,” and thus these rivals might not be as eager to make claims on any players the Cards might be forced to expose to waivers.

Diamondbacks Designate Matt Grace For Assignment

By Mark Polishuk | August 27, 2020 at 3:47pm CDT

The Diamondbacks have designated left-hander Matt Grace for assignment, as per a press release. The D’Backs also announced that infielder Andy Young and righty Joel Payamps were called up from the club’s alternate training site to take the roster spots left open by Grace and Kevin Cron, who was optioned to the training site after last night’s game.

Grace just had his contract selected by the D’Backs last week, though his three-game tenure with the club has been a rough one. Grace has a 54.00 ERA over one official inning pitched, as his last two outings have seen the southpaw charged with three earned runs without recording an out.

A veteran of six MLB seasons, Grace posted a 4.29 ERA, 2.69 K/BB rate, 53.4% grounder rate, and 6.7 K/9 over 176 1/3 relief innings for the Nationals from 2015-19. The highlight was a 2018 season that saw Grace deliver a 2.87 ERA over 59 2/3 frames, though he struggled to a 6.36 ERA over 46 2/3 innings in 2019 and was left off Washington’s postseason roster.

D-backs Likely To Alter Deadline Approach Amid Losing Streak

By Steve Adams | August 27, 2020 at 9:26am CDT

The Diamondbacks’ loss to the Rockies last night pushed their losing streak to eight games, and general manager Mike Hazen offered a less optimistic outlook on the trade deadline than he did a week ago when he spoke of adding bullpen help and perhaps an upgrade at the DH spot. “We’re going to have a lot of conversations around a lot of different things, but I’m not sure how aggressive we’re going to be on the buy side,” Hazen told reporters Wednesday (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic).

Beyond the team’s poor play over the past week-plus, Arizona also learned that right-hander Merrill Kelly, one of the team’s most effective starters, isn’t likely to return in 2020. Kelly was found to have a blood clot in his shoulder, which necessitated surgery earlier this week. For a team that has seen its starters combine for a 5.26 ERA, losing a right-hander with a 2.59 ERA through his first 31 1/3 frames on the season is a particularly impactful blow.

The D-backs have regularly blurred the lines between the conventional “buyer” and “seller” labels under the Hazen regime; they dealt prospect Jazz Chisholm to acquire a controllable young arm, Zac Gallen, while swapping out ace Zack Greinke for a four-prospect package within hours of each other in the run-up to last year’s deadline. Those moves came just months after trading away franchise cornerstone Paul Goldschmidt in a package that focused more on controllable, MLB-ready talent (Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly) than on top prospects who’d yet to debut. The 2016 Jean Segura/Mitch Haniger-for-Ketel Marte/Taijuan Walker swap focused on exchanging controllable young assets. A full rebuilding effort has never appeared particularly close under Hazen’s watch.

That’s likely still the case, although the Diamondbacks will surely have the opportunity to sell off some shorter-term asset in the days to come, should they find offers to their liking. Left-hander Robbie Ray is a free agent at season’s end, and while his control has been awful in 2020, he’s still missing lots of bats. He’s reportedly drawn some interest as a bullpen piece. Closer Archie Bradley is a free agent after the 2021 season and would hold clear appeal to contending teams.

To be clear, there shouldn’t really be much in the way of urgency to shed payroll — at least not beyond the revenue losses that all teams are facing. The Diamondbacks entered the 2020 season with a payroll sitting at about $116.5MM (prior to prorating for the shortened season). With Ray, Jake Lamb, Mike Leake, Andrew Chafin and Yasmany Tomas all coming off the books, plus options on Hector Rondon, Junior Guerra and Stephen Vogt each looking unlikely to be picked up, Arizona has just over $51MM committed to next year’s payroll.

Granted, that number will rise when club options over Starling Marte ($12.5MM) and Kelly ($4.25MM) are picked up, and Bradley would be due a notable raise in arbitration (as would Kelly and Weaver). All told, though, the D-backs’ payroll shouldn’t be expected to check in at more than $75MM with the current group. So while players like Bradley and perhaps even Starling Marte figure to draw inquiries given their status as post-2021 free agents, there should be no financial pressure to move those players.

Diamondbacks Don’t Expect Merrill Kelly To Return In 2020

By Connor Byrne | August 26, 2020 at 4:35pm CDT

Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly landed on the injured list with a nerve impingement in his pitching shoulder Monday. Now, according to general manager Mike Hazen, Kelly probably won’t return this season after undergoing surgery to address a blood clot, per reports from Zach Buchanan of The Athletic and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.

The loss of Kelly seems like bad news on multiple fronts for the Diamondbacks. As owners of a 13-18 record, the D-backs could have sold a healthy Kelly off before the Aug. 31 trade deadline, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained shortly before he went on the IL. On the other hand, if Arizona wanted to continue pushing for a playoff spot, Kelly could have helped its cause. The 31-year-old has been one of its top starters this season, having recorded a 2.59 ERA/3.95 FIP with 8.33 K/9, 1.44 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent groundball rate in five appearances and 31 1/3 innings.

Aside from Kelly and Zac Gallen, the Diamondbacks’ rotation has gotten little production from anyone who has received multiple starts this year. Robbie Ray, Madison Bumgarner and Luke Weaver have all endured disastrous seasons, while Alex Young has provided middle-of-the-road numbers over three starts. But Bumgarner, who has been on the IL since Aug. 9 with a mid-back strain, figures to return soon. He should slot in along with Gallen, Ray, Weaver and either Young or Taylor Clarke when he does come back.

Kelly, meanwhile, will remain under Diamondbacks control in 2021 if they want to keep him. They’ll have to decide on a $4.25MM option or a $500K buyout in the offseason.

Pitching Notes: Hader, Bumgarner, Pearson, Dodgers, Beeks, Wright

By Connor Byrne | August 25, 2020 at 10:23pm CDT

On a night in which White Sox ace Lucas Giolito fired the first no-hitter of 2020, let’s check in on several other notable pitchers…

The Brewers are “listening” to offers for star reliever Josh Hader, but it’s not likely the club will trade the 26-year-old left-hander before the Aug. 31 deadline, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription link). Milwaukee was also willing to entertain proposals for Hader last winter, but it elected to retain him heading into this year – his first of four potential arbitration seasons. For a bargain price this season (a prorated $4.1MM), Hader has given the Brewers 9 1/3 scoreless, hitless innings with 13 strikeouts and five walks. He’s obviously not someone the Brewers are going to give up for anything less than a massive offer.
After throwing a 70-pitch bullpen session Sunday, Diamondbacks southpaw Madison Bumgarner could be closing in on a return from the injured list, per Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. Bumgarner has been on the IL since Aug. 9 with a mid-back strain, but he came out of his bullpen session unscathed, which manager Torey Lovullo called “very encouraging news.” The former Giant’s first season as a Diamondback has been anything but encouraging, though. After inking a five-year, $85MM contract in the offseason, Bumgarner has logged a 9.35 ERA/8.79 FIP with 6.75 K/9, 3.63 BB/9 and a 23.7 percent groundball rate in 17 1/3 innings. The 31-year-old averaged a career-worst 87.8 mph on his fastball during that four-start stretch, but Lovullo revealed Bumgarner’s “velo ticked up a little bit” during sim games.
Right-hander Nate Pearson, whom the Blue Jays placed on the IL on Aug. 19, has been diagnosed with a flexor strain, according to Scott Mitchell of TSN. He’s hoping to play catch this weekend, Mitchell reports, though it remains unclear if the rookie will return in 2020. Pearson struggled to a 6.61 ERA/7.60 FIP with 7.71 K/9 and 6.61 BB/9 over four starts and 16 1/3 frames before going on the shelf.
Dodgers righty Joe Kelly has been on the IL since Aug. 10 with shoulder inflammation, and a return isn’t imminent for the reliever. Manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday (via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com) that Kelly remains “a ways away” from rejoining the Dodgers. When Kelly does come back, he’ll have to serve a five-game suspension stemming from a July 28 dustup with the Astros. Meanwhile, Dodgers lefty Alex Wood won’t come off the IL before the end of the month, Gurnick tweets. Wood, who’s also dealing with shoulder inflammation, has only made one appearance this year (on July 25).
The Rays’ injury-laden pitching staff may have lost yet another hurler Tuesday, when southpaw Jalen Beeks left their game with an elbow/forearm issue. Manager Kevin Cash didn’t come off as optimistic afterward, saying (via Juan Toribio of MLB.com), “It sounded similar to Kitt, but we don’t know anything yet.” Cash was referring to righty Andrew Kittredge, who went on the 45-day IL on Aug. 12 with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament. A similar fate would be a season-ender for Beeks, who has been terrific in 2020. The 27-year-old has notched a 3.26 ERA and a much more impressive 1.74 FIP with 12.1 K/9 against 1.86 BB/9 across 19 1/3 innings.
Veteran knuckleballer Steven Wright hasn’t taken a major league mound since July 13, 2019, but the former Red Sox righty informed Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he’s not ready to call it a career. “I just don’t want to sit back in a few years and wish I had tried it,” said the soon-to-be 36-year-old Wright, who threw 35 pitches from a mound last week and told Abraham, “I’m throwing two bullpens a week and I’m feeling healthy for the first time since 2016.” Wright was an All-Star that year, but he then faced knee problems, Tommy John surgery, a performance-enhancing drugs suspension and an arrest on domestic violence charges (which led to a 15-game ban) during the ensuing seasons.

Pitching Notes: D-backs, Cubs, Verlander

By Connor Byrne | August 24, 2020 at 10:02pm CDT

Diamondbacks starter Robbie Ray is drawing interest from “a few teams” as a bullpen possibility, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. The 28-year-old left-hander has only made three relief appearances in his career (none since his first season in 2014); however, after several respectable seasons as a starter, the soon-to-be free agent has tanked in 2020. He owns an awful 8.33 ERA/7.77 FIP with 8.33 BB/9 across 27 innings this year, though some clubs may have hope that Ray’s high-strikeout ways will lead to success in the bullpen during the stretch run of the season. That said, there’s no guarantee the Diamondbacks will move Ray before the Aug. 31 deadline, as they entered Monday a manageable two games back of a wild-card spot.

More on the Diamondbacks, who made righty Merrill Kelly a late scratch before his start Monday. It was easy to speculate on a potential trade when that happened, but it turns out Kelly is dealing with a nerve impingement in his pitching shoulder, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweets. The club has placed Kelly on the 10-day injured list as a result and recalled righty Riley Smith. Kelly has been quite effective this season, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained Monday, so losing him is a blow to the D-backs’ playoff hopes and perhaps a less-than-ideal development heading into the deadline.
Cubs southpaw Jose Quintana and righty Tyler Chatwood will come off the injured list Tuesday, Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago reports. Quintana, who has been out all season after undergoing left thumb surgery, will work from the bullpen upon his return. That’s relatively new territory for Quintana, who has totaled just four relief appearances out of 250 in his career. As Wittenmyer notes, though, Quintana could find himself back in a starting role soon if Chatwood or Alec Mills falters (Mills didn’t in a win over Detroit on Monday). Chatwood, who will start Tuesday, turned in a pair of great outings to open the season, but he went on the IL with a back issue after the Royals shellacked him for eight earned runs on 11 hits in 2 1/3 innings on Aug. 6. He’s now set to rejoin Mills, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester in the Cubs’ rotation.
It has been nearly a month since the Astros shut down ace Justin Verlander because of a right forearm strain, but the reigning AL Cy Young winner continues to make progress in his recovery. Manager Dusty Baker issued an update on Verlander on Monday, saying to Mark Berman of Fox 26 and other reporters: “I think he threw 20 pitches yesterday. He said he felt pretty good. That’s a positive sign.” It’s still unknown whether Verlander will make it back this year, especially with only about a month remaining in the regular season. Houston has started 15-13 despite only one appearance from Verlander (and several other notable injuries), putting the team two games back of a wild-card spot.

Arizona’s Under-The-Radar Trade Chip

By Steve Adams | August 24, 2020 at 8:21pm CDT

Back in February, if you’d been told that the D-backs had dropped five straight games and were 8.5 games out of first place with a week until the trade deadline, the natural thought would be whether the team would trade left-hander Robbie Ray. The 28-year-old is a free agent at season’s end, and demand for starting pitching is always considerable during deadline season.

Jump ahead to August, however, and Ray has unexpectedly struggled through the worst showing of his career. He’s a contributing factor to the D-backs’ season-long struggles and their recent slide. And with nearly as many walks issued (25) as innings pitched (27), he’s not going to drum up much of a competitive market. Granted, his struggles make it extraordinarily difficult for the Diamondbacks to contemplate a qualifying offer this winter — a QO had previously looked likely — so perhaps they’ll still include some cash to help balance out his $9.43MM salary ($3.4MM prorated) and move him for what they can get.

But even without a productive Ray helping to anchor their pitching staff, the Diamondbacks find themselves in possession of one of the game’s more interesting trade assets in the rotation: right-hander Merrill Kelly.

Kelly is a relatively anonymous righty — one with whom many casual fans may not be familiar at all. The 31-year-old was an eighth-round pick of the Rays in 2010 but never earned a call to the big leagues in Tampa Bay. After several solid seasons in their system failed to earn him a promotion, Kelly jumped to the Korea Baseball Organization, where he starred for the SK Wyverns for four years. That showing prompted the D-backs to invest in a small two-year contract that included a pair of club options back in the 2018-19 offseason.

It was viewed as a fairly low-risk deal, but now, as all 30 owners bemoan revenue losses amid the Covid-19 pandemic and as virtually every psuedo-contender’s front office eyes pitching depth, Kelly should be on every team’s radar. Kelly has not only established himself as a solid big leaguer in 37 starts with the D-backs but has done so while playing on a deal that now looks well below-market.

Let’s first look to Kelly’s production. Since his Major League debut early last year, he’s taken the ball every fifth day and given the Diamondbacks 214 2/3 innings of 4.15 ERA ball. He’s been particularly sharp in five starts this year, working 31 1/3 frames with a 2.59 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 1.44 HR/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate. Considering his hitter-friendly home park and the league-wide home run surge, Kelly’s career ERA is about six to seven percent better than the league average per both ERA+ and ERA-.

Kelly isn’t an overpowering pitcher by any means, relying on a four-seamer and a sinker that both average about 92 mph. He’s not a huge ground-ball arm, nor does he generate whiffs at a rate that is indicative of the potential for more punchouts with his current arsenal. He’s improved his walk rate, first-pitch strike rate and overall strike percentage in 2020, though, and the improved location could lend some credence to this year’s uptick in production. He’s still unlikely to sustain a sub-3.00 ERA, but fielding-independent metrics generally agree that Kelly is at the very least a league-average starter.

“League-average” admittedly isn’t an especially sexy adjective to attach to a pitcher, but average innings are useful. And Kelly isn’t being paid like an average starter — he’s being paid like a reclamation project. His $3MM salary in 2020 matches that of righty Michael Wacha, who signed with the Mets after a season ruined by shoulder injuries. Most reclamation projects have substantial incentives packages built into their contracts, allowing them to earn more if they return to form. That’s not the case with Kelly.

Kelly is not only earning a $3MM salary in 2020, however; he’s controlled through 2022 via a pair of club options that would pay him a combined $9.5MM. His contract carries a $4.25MM option ($500K buyout) for the 2021 season that is a veritable lock to be exercised, as well as a $5.25MM option (no buyout) for the 2022 campaign. For comparison’s sake, that $9.5MM salary from 2021-22 is all of $500K more than the $9MM base salary the Giants paid to right-hander Kevin Gausman — another reclamation project who is among the likelier pitchers to change hands in the coming week.

None of this is to say that Kelly’s contract is some kind of colossal misstep on his behalf. The track record of starting pitchers with zero MLB experience coming back to North America and thriving after a strong KBO showing is virtually nonexistent. There was a chance that the signing simply wouldn’t work out for the D-backs, and they’d be out the $5.5MM they’d guaranteed to Kelly. Fortunately for them, that’s not how things have turned out. And now, at a time when most front offices know they won’t be provided the same resources they can typically expect from ownership, the affordable terms of that contract could create enough surplus value to make Kelly a sought-after trade piece.

Of course, that surplus value would benefit the D-backs, too. They’re hardly buried in the NL postseason race — a reality that’s true of virtually every team except the Pirates. Looking past the top two teams in each division, there are eight teams within a game and a half of each other for those final two playoff spots. Barring a continuation of their current losing streak, there’s minimal urgency to sell any pieces; GM Mike Hazen said as recently a last week that he plans to try to add pieces in the bullpen and possibly at designated hitter.

Even if the D-backs aren’t sold on their status as contenders in 2020, they surely plan to aim for competitiveness in 2021. The club signed Madison Bumgarner and Kole Calhoun to five- and three-year deals, respectively, this winter. They traded multiple prospects to acquire the final two years of control over Starling Marte. This isn’t a club that’s going to embark on a lengthy, arduous rebuild — even with recent trades of Paul Goldschmidt and Zack Greinke still fresh in everyone’s memory.

That said, those trades and signings also helped to build a deep reservoir of pitching within the organization. Bumgarner, Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Corbin Martin, Alex Young, J.B. Bukauskas, Jon Duplantier and others give the club quite a bit of depth even in the event that Kelly is subtracted from the equation. A trade involving him could return a young arm (or arms) with greater team control remaining. It could also return a big league ready bat who might help to address some of the team’s lackluster production at the dish in 2020.

There’s no guarantee that the D-backs will look to move Kelly. The D-backs will likely wait until the final days or even hours leading up to the deadline to make a major move, as the wide range of outcomes this week necessitates that they gather more information. But a rental-averse team with budgetary constraints — descriptions that apply to the majority of buyers — would have plenty of reasons to make a push for Kelly and the stability he provides.

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