- Shelby Miller showed promise in his return to the Diamondbacks, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. While he started rough, Miller was able to buckle down and deliver six solid frames. The embattled righty says he ironed out his mechanics in the minors, and that seems to have shown through in his good Triple-A results. He still has a ways to go in re-establishing his trajectory, but Miller worked in the mid-nineties with his fastball and filled up the zone in his first outing back in the majors.
Diamondbacks Rumors
D-Backs Not Interested In Trading Zack Greinke This Winter
The Diamondbacks obviously won’t be trading veteran righty Zack Greinke this year, as he wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason with a new team now that the calendar has flipped to September. But the club also isn’t interested in trying to move his massive contract this winter, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
Arizona reportedly listened to interest from the Dodgers after Greinke cleared waivers, but those talks didn’t progress. Still, the fact that the club’s ace was able to pass through unclaimed obviously suggests that other organizations don’t view his contract as an asset.
Greinke is owed $157.5MM in salary over the next five years, though some of it is deferred, with Arizona also obligated to make continued signing bonus payouts. That contract represents a major chunk of the D-Backs’ middle-of-the-road budget.
While any premium free agent signing represents a calculated gamble, this one looked questionable from the outset and hasn’t started off in the right direction. The accomplished hurler may have been somewhat unfortunate to post a 4.17 ERA in his 136 innings to date in 2016. (Of course, the opposite was true of his sparkling 1.66 earned run mark a season ago, which earned him the massive payday.) But ERA estimators are lower on him now (3.64 FIP, 3.85 xFIP, 3.99 SIERA) than they have been since at least 2007.
The biggest issue, perhaps, isn’t Greinke’s somewhat underwhelming but nevertheless-useful season. It’s the fact that he is already nearly 33 years old. Greinke is still a quality starter — he’d easily be the best on this winter’s market were he eligible — but it’s certainly fair to ask whether Arizona ought to cut its losses while he is still marketable. A performance turnaround is always possible, but so is the inverse, and Greinke’s age will remain as a deterrent.
Nevertheless, the earliest the D-Backs will consider moving Greinke, per the report, is next summer. Despite its miserable 2016 campaign, the club believes it is still primed to contend in the near-term and evidently isn’t interested in jeopardizing that possibility by trading its best pitcher. The return of A.J. Pollock lends some credence to the idea that Arizona could be a postseason factor in 2017, to be sure, but other developments have been less promising.
Ultimately, it’s impossible to evaluate any decision for or against a trade without knowing the possible return and other market developments. But an openness to listen, at least, would seem wise. After all, the remarkably weak upcoming free agent pitching class may create opportunity, and the D-Backs may be wise to explore options for avoiding some of the risk posed by the back half of the Greinke contract.
Dodgers Approached D-Backs About Zack Greinke Trade
The Dodgers approached the division-rival Diamondbacks about a potential Zack Greinke trade after Greinke cleared revocable trade waivers earlier this month, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal’s report is the first mention of the fact that Greinke cleared waivers, although the fact that he did so is in no way surprising. Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM contract comes with a staggering $34.4MM annual salary, and he’s owed $172.5MM from 2017-21. Talented as he may be, the vast majority of teams wouldn’t consider doling out that type of money for any pitcher, let alone one whose contract runs through his age-37 season.
Talks between the Dodgers and D-backs, according to Rosenthal, didn’t progress very far, and a trade isn’t likely to be revisited this season, as Greinke would no longer be eligible for a new team’s postseason roster now that it is officially Sept. 1 on the east coast. However, Rosenthal suggests that the two sides could revisit talks this winter, adding that the Diamondbacks may become increasingly willing to shed some payroll after a disappointing season that is currently on pace to yield the worst average attendance in franchise history.
Of course, there are plenty of variables that will factor into whether the D-backs are able to line up on a Greinke deal with the Dodgers or with any other club. First and foremost, it’ll depend on who is calling the shots atop Arizona’s baseball operations department. Chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and GM Dave Stewart signed Greinke to his record-setting deal (with owner Ken Kendrick’s approval), but the job security of both of men has been called into question recently due to the D-backs’ wildly disappointing season. A new GM or president of baseball operations could potentially be more inclined to deal Greinke than the incumbent duo.
Beyond that, Greinke’s performance in the 2016 season hasn’t lined up with the dominant results in Los Angeles that elevated his stock to the point that enabled him to demand such a staggering price. While Greinke turned in a pristine 2.30 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 602 2/3 innings over the life of his three-year Dodgers career, he’s pitched to a 4.17 earned run average and missed more than a month due to an oblique injury in his inaugural season with the D-backs. He’s seen incremental decreases in his strikeout and ground-ball rates, while his walk rate has elevated a bit. ERA estimators feel that he’s been better than that 4.17 mark would indicate, but it’d be unwise to ever expect Greinke to replicate his astounding 2015 campaign (1.66 ERA in 222 2/3 innings). Even if a team were to believe that Greinke’s true talent was that of a pitcher who can sustain an ERA in the 2.50 to 3.00 range — and there presumably are such teams — the D-backs would probably still have to include significant financial assistance in order to bring Greinke’s salary down to a more palatable price point.
On top of that, Greinke has a 15-team no-trade clause, giving him some considerable power over a theoretical effort to trade him. While he might welcome a chance to return to the Dodgers or a different contending club, there’s no guarantee that’d be the case. The odds of the D-backs finding an interested trading partner to which Greinke would not or could not block a deal that had the financial means to absorb the majority of an enormous contract and still believed him capable of pitching like a top-tier starter are long. That’s only half of the equation. If the D-backs were to get serious about trading Greinke and could find a willing partner, they’d still have to try to pry prospect value away from the interested team. And, the greater the ask from Arizona, the more of Greinke’s contract a trading partner would ask the D-backs to cover. Finding that balance point would be extremely difficult.
Rosenthal writes that the Dodgers will probably circle back to these talks down the line, and that certainly seems plausible, especially if there is a regime change in the Arizona front office. But, the number of hurdles that stand between the idea of this trade and the actual fruition of the trade is probably too great to realistically expect a deal to ever materialize.
Orioles Acquire Michael Bourn
The Orioles announced tonight that they have acquired center fielder Michael Bourn from the Diamondbacks in exchange for minor league outfielder Jason Heinrich. To make room for Bourn on the 40-man roster, Baltimore has transferred outfielder Joey Rickard to the 60-day disabled list.
The 33-year-old Bourn becomes the second piece of outfield depth added by Baltimore today, as the O’s also picked up center fielder Drew Stubbs when they claimed him off release waivers from the Rangers. Bourn hasn’t been overly productive on the season overall in Arizona, but he’s had some productive stretches and has been swinging a hot bat as of late. The speedster is hitting .261/.307/.362 in 389 plate appearances with Arizona this season, but his .313/.345/.434 slash and five stolen bases over his past 20 games are more encouraging than his cumulative season stats.
With rosters set to expand tomorrow, Bourn will give the O’s a late-inning option to bring some speed off the bench and perhaps to upgrade the outfield defense over Mark Trumbo or Hyun Soo Kim, neither of whom grades out anywhere close to average with the glove. At 33 years of age and with a recent history of hamstring issues, Bourn isn’t the premium defender and elite baserunner that he once was, but he’s nonetheless graded out as roughly average in center field, per Ultimate Zone Rating, and four runs above average in the eyes of Defensive Runs Saved. As such, he should be a sizable upgrade in terms of run prevention if and when manager Buck Showalter inserts him into the mix late in games with slim leads.
Heinrich, 20, was the Orioles’ fifth-round pick in the 2015 draft. The Florida high school product and Alaska native has spent the season with Baltimore’s Low-A affiliate, batting .231/.301/.347 in 163 plate appearances and is a .251/.331/.365 hitter in a total of 341 plate appearances since being drafted last year. Heading into last year’s draft, Baseball America rated Heinrich as the No. 188 prospect available, writing that the right-handed hitter stood out for his plus raw power to the pull side and impressive bat speed. He profiles as either a right fielder or a first baseman in the long term, per BA.
FOX’s Ken Rosenthal first reported earlier this afternoon that the Orioles were trying to acquire Bourn, while USA Today’s Bob Nightengale called the deal close and FanRag’s Jon Heyman said the two sides had a principle agreement with only final details to be worked out.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Orioles, D-Backs Finalizing Michael Bourn Trade
5:40pm: Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports tweets that the two sides have reached an agreement, in principle, and are hammering out the final details at the moment.
5:33pm: The Orioles just added a center-field capable outfielder when they claimed Drew Stubbs off release waivers from the Rangers, but they’re also trying to trade for D-backs center fielder Michael Bourn, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Diamondbacks are “close” to trading Bourn to Baltimore. It’s not clear whether the O’s placed a claim on Bourn or whether the veteran speedster has already cleared waivers, but Baltimore has until midnight EST tonight to reach an agreement with Arizona, as players acquired on or after Sept. 1 aren’t eligible for their new team’s postseason roster.
The 33-year-old Bourn was signed by Arizona earlier this season when the D-backs lost A.J. Pollock for the majority of the year (due to an elbow fracture). He’s had some stretches of productivity, but overall Bourn has delivered a lackluster .261/.307/.362 batting line in 389 plate appearances. Defensive Runs Saved still feels that Bourn has been worth four runs in center field this season, however, and Bourn remains an above-average contributor on the bases. He’s swiped 13 bags in 18 attempts and has been 1.7 runs above average with his overall baserunning contributions, per Fangraphs. The O’s likely view him as a late-inning option to enter games as a defensive and/or baserunning upgrade.
D-backs Could Fire Chip Hale, Target Walt Weiss
- If the Diamondbacks fire manager Chip Hale after the season, they could target the Rockies’ Walt Weiss, per Rosenthal, who notes that Weiss has connections to both D-backs chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and general manager Dave Stewart (they’re also on the hot seat). Weiss, whom Rockies GM Jeff Bridich inherited upon taking over after the 2014 season, is in the last year of his contract. In terms of wins and losses, the Weiss-led Rockies have shown progress this year, though they’ve faded lately and have only compiled a a 268-346 record under him since 2013.
Poll: The Diamondbacks’ Front Office
Derrick Hall will remain the Diamondbacks’ CEO for the foreseeable future, but that won’t necessarily preclude a major overhaul to the franchise’s baseball operations department. Hall stated this week that the club will make decisions on the two heads of that department, chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and general manager Dave Stewart, after the season.
“There’s a lot to think about here,” said Hall, who doesn’t seem eager to make radical changes to Arizona’s front office.
La Russa and Stewart only took the helm in Arizona during the 2014 campaign, but the team has regressed enough under their leadership to make a regime change a legitimate possibility. After going 79-83 and posting a plus-7 run differential in 2015, the Diamondbacks’ first full season with La Russa and Stewart at the controls, the club has plummeted to 53-75 this year. Only two teams have lesser records than the D-backs, and just one has a worse run differential than Arizona’s minus-132. Injuries, primarily the fractured elbow that has kept star center fielder A.J. Pollock out all season, haven’t helped Arizona’s cause. However, even with a healthy roster, it’s fair to say the Diamondbacks would not have pushed for a playoff spot this year. Their front office had other plans, however, as evidenced by its aggressive offseason maneuverings.
The Diamondbacks’ most notable winter transactions included signing 32-year-old right-hander Zack Greinke to a $206.5MM contract and swinging a trade with the Braves for righty Shelby Miller. While still a quality option, Greinke has gone backward in his first year as a Diamondback (and spent time on the DL himself), which wasn’t the scenario they envisioned when awarding a franchise-record payday to him.
D-Backs Engaged Dodgers On Yasiel Puig
- Speaking of Puig, the division-rival Diamondbacks are said to have engaged in “some brief talks” on the talented 25-year-old. That engagement doesn’t seem to have resulted in any traction, however, so it doesn’t sound as if there’s any reason to believe that there could be a match between the organizations.
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Shelby Miller Demotion Expected To Delay Free Agency
The Diamondbacks have scheduled right-hander Shelby Miller for at least one more Triple-A start, which Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic says will leave the 25-year-old unable to accrue enough days on the active roster this year to reach four full years of MLB service.
Miller is sitting at 3.133 on his service clock at present, says Piecoro. That means he would need to return to the major league roster by Thursday to reach 172 days and move from the 3+ to the 4+ arbitration class. Miller had been on track to qualify for free agency after the 2018 season. Now, it seems, the Diamondbacks will control him for 2019 as well.
The Snakes demoted Miller to Triple-A as he scuffled through an abysmal campaign. He has lasted just 69 1/3 frames in 14 big league starts and has been tagged with a 7.14 ERA on the year. That’s far from what the team expected when it traded a talented trio of players to add him over the winter.
Arizona will still need to tender Miller an arb contract this fall to retain him, of course. Miller is earning $4.35MM this year, his first season of eligibility. He won’t command much of a raise given his struggles, but will still earn a fairly significant salary.
Diamondbacks chief baseball officer Tony La Russa said that the team’s handling of Miller was not tied to service time. “I don’t know if it’s true or not,” La Russa said of the calculation of service days presented by Piecoro.
While Arizona obviously has ample cause to ask Miller to work things out at Triple-A, it is fair to note that he has been much better there. Over his 46 frames, Miller carries a 3.52 ERA and — more importantly — has recorded 10.0 K/9 against just 1.8 BB/9.
D-Backs Nearing Extension With CEO Derrick Hall; Stewart Decision Unlikely Before End Of Season
The Diamondbacks are nearing an eight-year contract extension with president and CEO Derrick Hall, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The new contract will replace Hall’s expiring contract and run through the 2024 season. Hall has been the club’s president since 2006 and CEO since 2008.
While Hall’s fate looks to be sorted out (with the result coming as little surprise), the same can’t be said of chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and GM Dave Stewart, both of whom are currently in limbo as their superiors (Hall included) evaluate what has been a wildly disappointing season for the D-backs. Stewart’s contract is reported to have an option that must be exercised by the end of the month of August, but Hall tells Piecoro that the team will push that decision back a ways. “We’ve decided we’ll go until the end of the season and then we’ll evaluate everything,” said Hall. “It was pretty successful last year, and we know there have been a lot of injuries, a lot of things haven’t gone our way. There’s a lot to think about here.”
In an effort to take some of the heat off of his baseball ops department, Hall stressed that while La Russa and Stewart may be responsible for the day-to-day operations of the club, he plays a role in those decisions by having a say on final approval as well. “I’m obviously just as guilty with approvals or disapprovals and all the meetings I’m a part of,” he said. “I think we all have to look in the mirror right now when it comes to baseball and really turn the page and start to produce.”
Piecoro also asked Hall about a weekend report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, which stated that Hall and owner Ken Kendrick stepped in and vetoed a trade of Shelby Miller to the Marlins and the dismissal of manager Chip Hale. Hall didn’t deny either report, and in reference to Miller said that he didn’t feel this was an instance of ownership being too involved in operations, explaining that about 95 percent of proposed deals receive approval, but there is also a “small percent that we challenge or push back.” Regarding Hale, Hall simply said that as was the case with Stewart, the team plans to see how the remainder of the season plays out before making any kind of final decision. Hale, like Stewart, has an option on his contract for the 2017 season.
The D-backs have limed to a 53-74 record that is currently tied with the Padres for the second-worst in all of Major League Baseball this season. Injuries to the likes of A.J. Pollock, David Peralta, Chris Owings, Zack Greinke and Rubby De La Rosa (among others) have certainly played a significant role in that lackluster performance but have also magnified the poor results from a number of the team’s other recent personnel moves, prompting speculation about the futures of La Russa and Stewart.
