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Garrett Crochet Rumors: Deadline Day

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White Sox ace Garrett Crochet has been the hottest name on the trade market this month, both because of the Sox’ own failed attempt to extend him and because his camp has since indicated that the left-hander wants an extension before pitching in October for a new club. Crochet’s 114 1/3 innings this season have already eclipsed his prior career total. He’s said to be against a move to the bullpen, believing that staying on a starter’s routine is best for his health, and aiming for financial security before pushing his workload even deeper into postseason waters.

It’s rubbed many fans the wrong way to see such a business-like approach, and it’s taken many in the industry aback — White Sox GM Chris Getz included, apparently. Via Sox Machine’s James Fegan, Getz spoke with reporters yesterday and acknowledged that he was “surprised and taken back” by how Crochet’s camp handled the situation, particularly as he’d had a conversation with the left-hander’s agent at CAA just the night before.

“I think most fans and even players without knowing everything, it makes sense,” said Getz. “We understand why a stance would be taken. Now how you go about expressing that is what was a bit hurtful, quite honestly, considering I felt like we could have handled it a little bit differently and still I think everyone accomplished what they wanted to accomplish. … But Garrett and I are fine, we are good. I’ll continue to be one of his top supporters. In regard to how it affects the coming days, tough to tell.”

We’ll round up today’s Crochet chatter here and break out any major developments into their own posts…

  • USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the White Sox have become increasingly optimistic that they’ll find someone to meet their asking price on Crochet even in the wake of his extension revelation. Per Nightengale, the Sox believe that they’ll trade Crochet between now and the 5:00pm CT deadline but expect to hang onto center fielder Luis Robert Jr. — as was reported to be the case regarding Robert just last night.
  • Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Bruce Levine of 670 The Score suggest that Crochet’s market remains strong. Rosenthal lists the Padres, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, Red Sox and Orioles as teams with varying levels of interest. Levine echoes much of that same list and quotes an executive from a rival AL club stating the relative obvious: “You don’t get a chance to find a top pitcher like that often. You must get creative.”
  • The Yankees inquired on Crochet at some point but were told in those initial talks that the two parties “didn’t match up” in a trade, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Yankees could always revisit talks, particularly with so many alternative rotation options off the board. New York has been tied to Tigers righty Jack Flaherty as well, and the Yankees are seeking a rotation upgrade as they simultaneously explore the possibility of moving Nestor Cortes in a separate deal.

Braves Acquire Jorge Soler

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Jorge Soler is headed back to Atlanta. The Braves reacquired both Soler and reliever Luke Jackson from the Giants on Monday night in what amounts to a salary dump for San Francisco. The Giants acquire minor league infielder Sabin Ceballos and take on the salary for injured reliever Tyler Matzek. Atlanta designated Darius Vines for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.

Atlanta is looking to recreate the magic of their 2021 deadline. The Braves brought in Soler and Eddie Rosario that summer to address an outfield that had lost Ronald Acuña Jr. to a season-ending ACL tear. Those outfield acquisitions drove Atlanta’s run to a championship, with Soler snagging World Series MVP honors behind a three-homer performance in the Fall Classic.

The Braves unfortunately lost Acuña to another ACL tear in late May, leaving them shorthanded in the outfield as the deadline approached. They already took a flier on Rosario, signing him after he was released by the Nationals. That hasn’t worked thus far, as Rosario is hitting .164/.186/.345 in 16 games.

Soler should step into everyday playing time in right field. Adam Duvall has gotten the bulk of the work there since the Acuña injury, but he’s hitting only .188/.251/.336 over 295 plate appearances. Atlanta signed Duvall to work as a short side platoon bat alongside Jarred Kelenic in left field. Duvall has continued to hit left-handed pitching (.261/.361/.533 in 108 plate appearances), but he owns a dismal .153/.190/.239 line while striking out a third of the time against righties.

Duvall can now return to the more limited role which the Braves had envisioned him playing. Kelenic has been pressed mainly into center field action since Michael Harris II went down with a hamstring strain. Once Harris is ready to return, that’ll push Kelenic back to left field.

It’s an abrupt end to what proved a very brief stint for Soler in the Bay Area. The Giants signed him to a three-year, $42MM deal at the start of Spring Training. His tenure started inauspiciously, as he didn’t hit well for two months and missed some time with a minor shoulder strain. The Cuban-born slugger has been on a tear since the calendar flipped to June, hitting .280/.374/.486 over his most recent 204 plate appearances.

Thanks to his cold start, Soler’s season line is still below his typical level. He owns a .240/.330/.419 slash with 12 homers across 392 trips. His 11.2% walk percentage and 24.7% strikeout rate are in line with his normal marks, but Soler’s power output is down from last year’s 36-homer pace. While some of that is surely attributable to the challenge of hitting at Oracle Park, his batted ball metrics have also dropped. Soler’s average exit velocity is down a tick, while his 39.9% hard contact rate is eight percentage points below last year’s figure.

That’s probably part of the Giants’ rationale in getting out from under the contract within a few months of signing it. Atlanta desperately needed to inject some life into an offense that has hit .227/.281/.417 in July. The Braves have hovered around .500 for the better part of three months and have dropped back to the pack in the NL Wild Card race. At 56-49, they’re narrowly in possession of the top Wild Card spot. Only one and a half games separate them from the Diamondbacks, the top non-playoff team at the moment.

While the Braves are clearly reacquiring Soler for his bat, they’ll need to count on him to hold his own defensively. Soler didn’t play a single inning on defense for the Giants. He only made 31 starts in right field (compared to 102 at DH) last year with the Marlins. Marcell Ozuna has the designated hitter spot secured in Atlanta, so the Braves will trust Soler to play more or less every day in the field. Ozuna’s contract contains a $16MM club option for next season, which the Braves probably anticipate exercising. With Soler signed through 2026, they’d have a lot of defensively-limited hitters at that point. That’s a risk they’re prepared to take for the short-term lineup boost.

Atlanta’s “run it back” ethos doesn’t stop with Soler. Jackson was also a member of their ’21 World Series winner. The right-hander had the best year of his career that season, working to a 1.98 ERA across 63 2/3 innings. Jackson’s elbow blew out the next year, sending him for Tommy John surgery that seemed as if it’d end his Braves tenure. He hit free agency during the 2022-23 offseason and landed in San Francisco on a two-year, $11.5MM guarantee.

Jackson spent the first half of last season finishing his Tommy John rehab. He returned to throw 33 1/3 frames of 2.97 ERA ball down the stretch. Jackson quickly landed on the shelf with a lower back strain and hasn’t managed the same caliber of production since returning in late April. He’s carrying a 5.40 earned run average over 35 innings. His 21.9% strikeout percentage and 9.9% walk rate are each slightly worse than average, though he’s getting ground-balls at a strong 51% clip.

The 32-year-old (33 in August) has looked much sharper of late. Jackson is running a 13:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with three runs allowed in nine innings this month. The velocity on his slider and four-seam fastball are each in line with his career marks. The Braves can plug him into middle relief with the possibility for higher-leverage work alongside Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson and A.J. Minter if Jackson’s recent form kicks off a strong second half.

Atlanta is taking on a substantial amount of money for these reunions. There’s no cash changing hands, although Matzek’s inclusion in the deal provides a small financial counterbalance. He’s in the second season of a two-year, $3.1MM contract that has mostly been ruined by elbow problems. Matzek missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He made 11 appearances early this season, allowing 11 runs in 10 innings, before going back on the injured list with elbow inflammation. Matzek remains on the 60-day IL with no clear return timetable. His deal contains a $5.5MM team option for next season that is sure to be declined.

The Giants paid Soler a $9MM signing bonus. He’s playing this season on a $7MM salary, around $2.3MM of which is still owed. Atlanta is taking on matching $13MM salaries covering the 2025-26 seasons. Jackson is making $6.5MM this year (roughly $2.1MM remaining) and is guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on a $7MM option for next year. Matzek is due around $620K through season’s end. The Braves assume nearly $3.8MM in salary commitments for the stretch run plus the $28MM in future guarantees on Soler’s and Jackson’s deals.

RosterResource calculates Atlanta’s CBT number around $282MM. That pushes them past the $277MM third tier of penalization and positions their first-round pick in next year’s draft to drop 10 spots. Atlanta is a second-time payor, so they’re taxed at a 62% rate on spending up to the $297MM mark. The Giants shave nearly $7MM off their tax ledger and have an estimated $244MM mark at RosterResource. They’re still above the $237MM base threshold and may not be looking to drop any more money.

San Francisco also grabs a prospect in the deal. Ceballos, 21, was Atlanta’s third-round pick out of Oregon last year. A righty-hitting third baseman, he has a .259/.353/.354 slash with a 9.8% walk rate and 19.1% strikeout percentage in High-A this season. Baseball America ranked him as the #26 prospect in a weak Atlanta farm system, crediting him with a plus arm and some raw power upside.

As for Vines, he’ll either be traded tomorrow or (more likely) placed on waivers this week. The 26-year-old righty has made eight big league appearances, turning in a 5.45 ERA over 33 innings. He owns a 5.14 earned run average across 14 starts with Triple-A Gwinnett this season.

Mike Rodriguez first reported the Giants were trading Soler to the Braves. Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report Jackson’s inclusion. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Braves were assuming the entire contract.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reynaldo López Day-To-Day With Forearm Tightness

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TODAY: López’s MRI revealed no structural damage, manager Brian Snitker told Toscano and other reporters (X link).  It appears as though this is something close to a best-case scenario for López and the Braves, as Snitker said López might not miss any time due to the injury.

JULY 28: Braves right-hander Reynaldo López was removed from today’s start after just three innings and the club announced that the move was due to right forearm tightness. He’s headed to Atlanta for an MRI, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on X. Though Atlanta characterized it as precautionary and described the righty as day-to-day, it could be a notable development given the surrounding circumstances of the club.

López mostly worked as a reliever from 2021 to 2023, but Atlanta moved him back to a starting role this year, an experiment that has gone incredibly well so far. The righty came into today with an earned run average of 2.12 in 101 2/3 innings. There’s certainly a bit of luck in there, as stranding 85.6% of baserunners isn’t sustainable in the long term, but his 8.7% walk rate is close to average and his 24.2% strikeout rate is quite strong. His 3.17 FIP and 4.00 SIERA point to solid results even with a bit less luck in terms of stranding runners.

Losing that kind of performance for even a short amount of time would be less than ideal for Atlanta. The club has been sliding in the standings lately and is well back of the Phillies in the National League East. In the Wild Card picture, there are nine teams battling for three spots, within eight games of each other. Atlanta is atop that heap, but only barely.

Their rotation challenges began early on and have mounted as the season has progressed. Spencer Strider required UCL surgery in April and is out for the year. Max Fried, Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep are also on the IL due to arm issues.

Fried and Waldrep could each be coming off the IL in the coming weeks, but it would be less than ideal for López to miss any time. If he were out of the picture, the rotation core would be down to Chris Sale and Charlie Morton, at least until one of the injured guys is able to return. Sale is having a great year but is hardly a sure thing, as he is 35 years old and missed most of the previous four seasons due to injury. Morton has a passable 4.16 ERA but is 40 years old and his strikeout rate has declined for a fourth straight season. Spencer Schwellenbach has been good but has just ten MLB starts to his name so far. Reliever Grant Holmes is listed as tomorrow’s starter.

All told, the Atlanta rotation has a lot of question marks in it right now, which could perhaps impact Atlanta’s behavior in the coming days. The trade deadline is 5pm Central on Tuesday, giving the club a bit of time to figure out how aggressively to pursue starting pitching upgrades. The market could features impact names like Garrett Crochet, Jack Flaherty and Tarik Skubal, as well as guys like Erick Fedde, Yusei Kikuchi, Cal Quantrill and many more.

The club also might be looking for help at second base and the outfield due to the injuries to Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II, but the competitive balance tax might impact their approach. RosterResource pegs their CBT number at $273MM, just below the third threshold of $277MM. Going over that line would not only lead to a higher rate of taxation but would also see their top pick in the 2025 draft pushed back ten spots.

On top of this season, there’s the worry of a long-term absence. At this point, there’s been nothing to suggest the worst-case scenario is on the table for López, but an injury to a pitcher’s throwing elbow/forearm will always lead to some degree of worry.

At this point in the year, a significant surgery could put the 2025 season in jeopardy for López. Atlanta is set to lose both Fried and Morton to free agency, with the latter also a candidate to retire. López is in the first season of a three-year deal and would certainly be part of the 2025 rotation mix as long as he’s healthy. If not, it would mostly consist of a 36-year-old Sale, followed by fairly unproven guys like Schwellenbach, Waldrep and others.

Braves Interested In Garrett Crochet

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White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet continues to be one of the most interesting names in the lead-up to the deadline. With just over 24 hours left to go, it’s unclear if he will be traded at all, but plenty of teams are interested. He’s already been connected to the Dodgers, Phillies and Padres to varying degrees, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post adding Atlanta to the pile today on X. Travis Sawchik of theScore reported on X last week that the Sox would prefer not to trade Crochet within the division, so the odds of him landing with another A.L. Central team would appear to be low.

Crochet is fairly unprecedented as a trade candidate due to his unusual trajectory. He was quickly called up to the majors in 2020 when he was only 21 years old. The Sox kept him in a relief role the year after and he pitched fairly well, but then Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2022 and 2023 seasons.

That left him in a strange spot coming into 2024. He had only thrown 73 major league innings due to the missed injury time and another 12 1/3 in the minors as part of his rehab assignment while coming back from surgery last year. But he collected service time while on the injured list and crossed three years of service in 2023, qualifying for arbitration. Since he had hardly pitched, his salary only got bumped to $800K, barely above the league minimum.

The Sox stretched him out as a starter here in 2024 and the results have vastly outpaced any reasonable expectations. The lefty has thrown 114 1/3 innings, already eclipsing his workload over the four previous years combined. He has allowed just 3.23 earned runs per nine innings, striking out 34.6% of batters faced. He has also limited walks to a 5.6% clip and gotten grounders on 46.8% of balls in play.

Most clubs would be clinging tightly to a pitcher who suddenly became an ace at the age of 25 but there are also factors pushing him onto the trade block. As mentioned, he has already qualified for arbitration and has just two years of club control remaining beyond this one. The Sox are absolutely awful this year, despite Crochet’s contributions, with a 27-81 record that could see them finish as one of the worst clubs of all time.

Given the low point the Sox are at, it’s fair to wonder if they can be competitive again in their window of control over Crochet. They reportedly explored an extension with him but didn’t get far, so he’s likely more valuable to them as a trade chip than as a player.

An ace pitcher with a tiny salary and two extra years of club control should give Crochet massive trade appeal but there are also complications. With the limited workload that he carried into this year, it’s led to questions about the best way to press forward, with some suggesting a move to relief work down the stretch would be the best option.

According to reporting from last week, Crochet prefers to continue in a starting role, believing that would be best for his health. He would want to sign an extension with any new club before being moved to the bullpen.

Relievers work fewer innings than starters overall but they have to pitch more frequently and essentially on-call. Perhaps Crochet believes he can better prepare his body for the regular schedule of starting, whereas bullpen work could involve pitching at any time, even on back-to-back days. It’s also possible that he and his reps are simply trying to leverage the trade interest into locking in some financial security, which is understandable. For a guy that has already missed significant time, it would be nice to have some money in the bank before a club leans on him heavily for a World Series run.

That could perhaps scare off some clubs that don’t want to both send significant prospects to Chicago and also commit notable dollars to Crochet. However, Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports today that the Dodgers don’t view the extension as an obstacle.

This situation is somewhat analogous to the Tyler Glasnow circumstances from the offseason. While not exactly the same as Crochet, he had some workload concerns and was available in trade, though the Rays reportedly made an extension a condition of trade talks. In the end, the Dodgers sealed the deal, sending Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca to the Rays for Glasnow and Manuel Margot and locking Glasnow up through 2028.

It’s understandable why they might want to go down that path again, given their pitching challenges. Dustin May and Emmet Sheehan both required season-ending surgeries while Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are each on the injured list as well. Bobby Miller struggled so bad that he got optioned down to the minors.

The club’s current rotation is fronted by Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw. Glasnow has a spotty health track record while Kershaw just returned from a lengthy absence due to shoulder surgery. They are backed up by three rookies in Gavin Stone, River Ryan and Justin Wrobleski. General manager Brandon Gomes has said the club is looking for “impact” additions and Crochet would certainly qualify. They already have lined up with the Sox on one major trade today, a three-team blockbuster that also involved the Cardinals.

Crochet’s modest salary is certainly part of the appeal for the Dodgers, as they are slated to be third-time payors of the competitive balance tax and are currently over the top tier. That means they will pay a 110% tax on any money they take on, so someone like Crochet would be more appealing than a veteran who is already making eight figures annually. The theoretical extension would increase his cost but the new deal would start in 2025 and wouldn’t impact his current CBT hit.

Turning to Atlanta, they have their own rotation challenges. Spencer Strider is out for the season due to UCL surgery while Max Fried, Hurston Waldrep and Huascar Ynoa are also on the IL at the moment. Reynaldo López was removed from his most recent start due to forearm tightness and is slated for an MRI.

That leaves them with a rotation nucleus consisting of Chris Sale and Charlie Morton. Sale is having a great season but missed most of the previous four years due to injury and is now 35 years old. Morton is 40 years old and his strikeout rate has been declining for four straight years. Spencer Schwellenbach has been filling in nicely but has ten big league starts to his name.

Adding Crochet in there would obviously be appealing and Atlanta is not afraid to sign extensions, having given multi-year pacts to most of their roster. Crochet’s minimal salary at present is also appealing on account of their CBT status. RosterResource has them at $273MM, just under the third CBT tier of $277MM. Going over that line would result in their top 2025 draft pick being bumped back ten spots, as well as an increased taxation rate.

As for the report that the Sox don’t want to move him within the division, that’s perfectly understandable. Most clubs don’t want to see their best players thriving on clubs that they play more often than others and the Sox should have plenty of suitors even while crossing a couple of teams off the list.

The Royals have a fairly strong rotation and just traded for Michael Lorenzen today, so they will probably be focused on adding offense in the days to come. The Twins and Guardians could use some rotation help but it seems they may have to shop in the non-Crochet aisle. The market also features such guys as Yusei Kikuchi, Jameson Taillon, Cal Quantrill and others.

Outright Assignments: Hiura, Short

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Catching up on some outright assignments from around the league today…

  • The Angels announced this afternoon that they’ve assigned infielder Keston Hiura outright to Triple-A. Hiura was designated for assignment earlier this week to make room for the return of infielder Luis Rengifo from the injured list. The ninth overall pick of the 2017 draft and a former consensus top-20 prospect in the sport, Hiura impressed with a big rookie season in 2019 where he slashed an impressive .303/.368/.570 in 84 games with the Brewers while playing second base, though he went on to struggle badly on both sides of the ball over the next two seasons with a combined slash line of just .192/.279/.362 in 120 games. Hiura move primarily to first base headed into the 2022 season and had a decent season where he posted a 115 wRC+, but a massive 41.7% strikeout rate led Milwaukee to part ways with the youngster. Hiura spent all of the 2023 season in the minors but resurfaced in Anaheim this year for ten games, going 4-for-27 with ten strikeouts and no extra base hits as a fill-in second baseman for the Halos.
  • The Braves announced today that they’ve assigned infield Zack Short outright to Triple-A. A 17th-round pick by the Cubs in the 2017 draft, Short was swapped to the Tigers in a trade that sent Cameron Maybin to Chicago during the shortened 2020 season and debuted for Detroit the following year. After struggling badly in brief cameos at the big league level in 2021 and ’22, Short got a lengthy run in the majors last year and slashed a lackluster .204/.292/.339 in 110 games in a bench role for the Tigers. He’s played for three teams in 2024 since getting designated for assignment by Detroit back in November. He was claimed by the Mets and kept on their 40-man roster throughout the offseason but appeared in just ten games before being dealt to the Red Sox, who themselves employed Short for just two games before trading him to Atlanta. During his time with the Braves, Short demonstrated solid on-base ability but hit just .148 with minimal power, giving him an overall slash line of .148/.313/.204 in 69 trips to the plate. Short figures to remain with Atlanta as non-roster depth option going forward, though he’ll be eligible for minor league free agency at years’ end if not added back to the 40-man roster by then.

Marlins Claim Forrest Wall

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The Marlins announced Thursday that they’ve claimed outfielder Forrest Wall off waivers from the division-rival Braves. Wall has been optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville. Miami already had an open 40-man roster spot, so no corresponding moves were necessary.

The 28-year-old Wall hit .241/.313/.241 in a small sample of 32 plate appearances with Atlanta this season. He’s seen big league time with the Braves in two straight seasons now but has been primarily a reserve player who’s been up due to his speed. He’s gone 8-for-12 in stolen base attempts but had greater success and more prolific base-stealing numbers in the minors.

Looking past that quick look with the Braves, most of Wall’s 2024 season has been spent in Triple-A Gwinnett. He’s slashed .279/.380/.411 with a 12.1% walk rate, 25.1% strikeout rate and a dozen steals in 51 games. Wall typically draws walks at a high clip in the upper minors and makes opponents pay with his wheels. He’s a career .268/.354/.387 hitter in parts of five Triple-A seasons, and he’s swiped 152 bases in 353 games there. He’s played all three outfield positions and also has more than 2100 professional innings at second base.

Wall still has two minor league option years remaining beyond the current season, so if the Fish want to keep him on the roster, he can be a piece of their outfield puzzle for a few years to come. Wall doesn’t have much power but clocks into the 93rd percentile of big leaguers in terms of average sprint speed, per Statcast. Miami’s long-term outfield picture is rather thin at the moment, so bringing in a versatile OBP- and speed-focused outfielder with options left makes some sense — particularly if they trade center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. or (less likely) one of Bryan De La Cruz or Jesus Sanchez in the coming days.

Astros, Braves, Cardinals Reportedly Interested In Zach Eflin

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The Rays have been open to trading from their rotation this year and could do so again, with right-hander Zach Eflin one of the possible candidates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Astros, Braves and Cardinals are “among the teams expected to have strong interest” in the righty.

The Rays aren’t fully in the seller camp as they are currently 51-51 and just 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. However, their rotation health has improved as the season has gone along and given them a relative surplus. That has allowed them to explore deals that either address another area of the roster, bolster the prospect depth, save some money or some combination of those goals.

Each of Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen began the season recovering from past arm surgeries. The Rays had a rotation of Eflin, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell and Aaron Civale for most of this year. Once they were ready to put Baz back into the rotation, they flipped Civale to the Brewers for a prospect and called up Baz.

A similar trade could make sense in the coming days. Pepiot is currently on the injured list with a knee infection but isn’t expected to be out for too long, while the Rays have Springs and Rasmussen both currently on rehab assignments. It’s therefore possible that they could trade a pitcher or two and still go through the stretch run with a healthy rotation. They have Tyler Alexander and Jacob Lopez around as depth and then Shane McClanahan should be back in the mix next year, after he recovers from his own elbow surgery.

Most of the pitchers in Tampa’s rotation mix are controllable for many years but Eflin and Littell are each slated for free agency after 2025. Eflin is a particularly sensible candidate for the budget-conscious club due to his contract. He signed a three-year, $40MM deal with Tampa going into 2023, with that deal being backloaded. He made $11MM last year and has that salary again here in 2024, with a jump to $18MM next year.

That is vaguely reminiscent of the extension that the Rays signed with Tyler Glasnow. While he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, Glasnow signed a two-year extension with the Rays which was also heavily backloaded. He was paid $5.35MM in 2023, his final arbitration season and a year in which he was expected to return from the surgery. The Rays also gained an extra year of control over him by giving him a $25MM salary for 2024.

He ended up returning in 2023 as expected, tossing 120 innings with a 3.53 earned run average. But before the big salary jump kicked in, he was traded to the Dodgers in a four-player deal that brought back Pepiot.

With Eflin set for a big raise next year and the Rays having plenty of other rotation options, he could be on the move shortly and should have plenty of suitors. He’s been a solid rotation stalwart for several years now, first with the Phillies and then with the Rays since signing his aforementioned deal. Dating back to the start of 2018, he has a 4.01 ERA in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate in that time is close to par but he’s limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%.

Health has been an issue for Eflin, largely due to knee problems. He was limited to just 181 1/3 innings over 2021 and 2022, his final two years in Philadelphia, but has managed to stay on the mound more in Tampa. He logged 177 2/3 innings over 31 starts last year with a 3.50 ERA. This year, he’s already up to 19 starts and 110 innings with a 4.09 ERA. He had brief stints on the IL both years due to lower back issues but otherwise kept the train on the tracks.

That type of solid performance would have plenty of appeal and the listed teams each make sense as a landing spot. Atlanta lost Spencer Strider to UCL surgery and also saw Max Fried head to the injured list recently, along with depth options like Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.

Currently, their rotation consists of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach, with various guys rotating through the back end. Bolstering that group with an external addition or two is plenty logical. Fried could perhaps be back but there’s risk in the current composition. Sale has a lengthy injury history and the club might want to hedge against him getting hurt again, even though he’s stayed healthy this year. López was just returned to a starting role after working as a reliever for a few years and could perhaps run out of gas later in the year. Morton’s gas tank might also be a factor just because he’s now 40 years old. Schwellenbach has been performing well but has just nine career starts in the majors.

The fact that Eflin is under contract for next year is likely appealing to Atlanta as well. Fried and Morton are both impending free agents, with the latter a possibility to consider retiring at season’s end. Strider will still be out of action by the start of 2025 so the on-paper rotation for next year will be Sale, López and a few question marks. Schwellenbach and some of the other young guys could step up and fill that in, but it’s no guarantee, so adding Eflin into the group would make sense.

The competitive balance tax may be a concern, as Atlanta is currently at $273MM, per the calculations of RosterResource. If they cross the third threshold of $277MM, they would not only incur a higher tax rate but their top pick in next year’s draft would also be moved back ten spots. Given where they are, they probably prefer to stay south of that line.

Eflin’s CBT hit is currently $13.33MM, based on the average annual value of his three-year, $40MM deal. However, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded. If a deal comes together in the next few days, he would have about a third of this year’s $11MM salary remaining, in the ballpark of $3.67MM. Combined with his $18MM salary next year, that’s $21.67MM over a season and a third, making for a CBT hit of $16.3MM. If Atlanta acquires him for the final two months of the season, they would put a third of that figure on their CBT calculation for this year, or $5.43MM.

Assuming the RR calculations are close to correct, taking on Eflin’s entire contract might be problematic for Atlanta, so they might try to get creative and have Tampa eat a portion of the deal. Next year’s CBT hit is far lower, currently at $185MM, but they will undoubtedly add to that with some offseason moves.

The Astros have also had their share of rotation challenges this year, with Cristian Javier and José Urquidy both requiring Tommy John surgery. Luis Garcia has yet to return from his own TJS operation from last year while Lance McCullers Jr. is still trying to get back from his own elbow procedure. Justin Verlander is also on the shelf with a neck injury.

Their current rotation consists of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss. Brown has recovered from an awful start to the season but each of Blanco, Arrighetti and Bloss is lacking in experience. Blanco only recently moved to the rotation after years of bullpen work while Arrighetti and Bloss are rookies who both have ERAs north of 5.60 so far this year.

Like Atlanta, Houston is set to pay the CBT this year but they have far more wiggle room. Houston’s CBT number is currently at $256MM, per RR. That’s just shy of the $257MM second line but crossing that only comes with a slight bump in tax rate and no draft pick penalties.

The Cardinals have a solid rotation front four consisting of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas. With Steven Matz injured, they have had Andre Pallante holding down the fifth spot lately. Pallante has a decent 3.42 ERA in his nine starts but he has a subpar strikeout rate of 19.8% and a limited track record overall.

Adding Eflin could bolster that group for this year and 2025 as well. Both Gibson and Lynn are on one-year deals and could be free agents this winter. They both have club options on their deals but it’s not a guarantee that the Cardinals would pick either of those up. Unlike Atlanta and Houston, the CBT is not a huge concern in St. Louis. RR currently has the Cards at $215MM, which is $22MM south of the $237MM base threshold.

Braves Designate Zack Short For Assignment

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The Braves announced this morning that they’ve designated infielder Zack Short for assignment. His roster spot will go to third baseman Austin Riley, who’s been reinstated from the paternity list. Atlanta also recalled right-hander Daysbel Hernandez from Triple-A Gwinnett. They had an open active roster spot after optioning southpaw Zach Logue to Gwinnett last night.

Short, 29, has appeared in 30 games with the Braves this season. He’s taken 69 plate appearances and struggled to a .148/.313/.204 batting line. Short has shown good plate discipline in that small sample (17.4% walk rate), as has been the case throughout his big league career (12.3% walk rate in 538 plate appearances). Even with that keen eye, however, Short carries a lifetime .167/.269/.287 in the majors. He’s a versatile defender who can play all over the infield, though defensive metrics suggest he’s best suited at second base. In parts of four Triple-A seasons, he’s a .224/.357/.400 hitter.

Atlanta will trade Short or attempt to pass him through outright waivers within the next five days. Waivers would be an additional 48-hour process. If he were to go unclaimed, Short would stick in the Braves organization as a depth option because he does not have a prior outright assignment or sufficient major league service time to reject an outright in favor of free agency. Short is out of minor league options, so any team that acquires him will have to place him directly on the MLB roster.

MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Preview

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Braves Select Zach Logue

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Between games of today’s doubleheader, the Braves announced that they have selected the contract of left-hander Zach Logue. Righty Allan Winans was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett in a corresponding move while outfielder Michael Harris II was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot. Atlanta also announced righty Daysbel Hernández as their 27th man for the doubleheader, though the second contest of that twin bill was postponed after these roster moves were announced.

Logue, 28, signed a minor league deal with Atlanta in the offseason and has been working in a swing role in the minors this year. He has tossed 76 2/3 innings on the farm over 19 appearances, 11 of those being starts. He has allowed 2.93 earned runs per nine innings with a 23.5% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate.

That will get him back to the big leagues, perhaps to provide some length out of the bullpen. Yesterday’s game against the Reds was postponed by the weather, which led to today’s planned doubleheader. Since Atlanta also played a twin bill on Saturday against the Cardinals, it was shaping up to be quite a week, though today’s second contest has now been banged as well.

Whenever Logue gets into a game, he’ll be adding to a track record that includes 68 innings with the Athletics and Tigers. He has a 6.88 ERA in that fairly small sample of work. His minor league work has been better at times and he was once a notable prospect in the Blue Jays’ system, going to the A’s in the Matt Chapman trade.

Logue had a 3.67 ERA on the farm in 2021, striking out 28.2% of batters faced while giving out walks at just a 5.3% clip over 125 innings. It was after that season that he was flipped to Oakland but then he posted a 6.79 ERA in the majors and a mark of 8.12 in Triple-A. He went to the Tigers on waivers and continued struggling in 2023, with a 7.36 ERA in the bigs and 6.58 ERA in Triple-A.

But after two rough years, he seems to be back in good form here in 2024. He can cover some innings out of the bullpen and still has an option that Atlanta could use to send him back down to the minors. He has less than a year of service time and could be retained for future seasons if he continues hanging onto his 40-man spot.

As for Harris, he’s been on the injured list since the middle of June due to a Grade 2 hamstring strain. He’ll now be ineligible to be reinstated until 60 days from that initial IL placement, which would be the middle of August. He still has yet to begin a rehab assignment and would likely need some time to get back in game shape even if he were cleared to play in the near future.

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