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White Sox Hire Jose Castro As Hitting Coach

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The White Sox have finalized their coaches under first-year skipper Pedro Grifol. Chicago announced the entire staff this afternoon, including the addition of José Castro as hitting coach. Eddie Rodríguez, who had spent the past three seasons working with Grifol as the Royals’ minor league field coordinator, joins Chicago as third base coach. Mike Tosar and Geoff Head join the big league staff as major league field coordinator and senior director of sports performance, respectively.

Chicago also confirmed the previously-reported hires of Charlie Montoyo as bench coach and former MLB third baseman Chris Johnson as assistant hitting coach. Previous bench coach/interim manager Miguel Cairo and assistant hitting coach Howie Clark are no longer on staff. Pitching coach Ethan Katz and bullpen coach Curt Hasler were already known to be returning from Tony La Russa’s 2022 staff. Daryl Boston is the other holdover, as the Sox announced today he’d return as first base coach.

The most notable news is the tabbing of Castro as hitting coach. The 64-year-old has spent the past eight seasons as an assistant hitting coach in Atlanta. A native of Cuba, Castro played 14 minor league seasons between 1977-90. He’s spent the past three-plus decades in various instructional roles, including a stint as interim hitting coach with the 2008 Mariners. This’ll be his first time taking the lead role on a full-time basis.

Castro was one of two assistant hitting coaches in Atlanta, pairing in that role with Bobby Magallanes. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that the Braves don’t plan on replacing him, instead letting hitting coach Kevin Seitzer and Magallanes handle those responsibilities.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/18/22

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The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. There will be a frenzy of non-tenders and trades today, but also some signings.

For many players, there’s little pressure to agree to terms this week. The deadline for exchanging figures isn’t until January 13, with the hearings taking place in March. However, players that are borderline non-tender candidates might get a low-ball offer at this time, with the team hoping that the looming possibility of a non-tender compels the player to accept. As such, deals at this part of the baseball calendar have a higher likelihood of coming in under projections.

One new wrinkle from the new collective bargaining agreement is that all of these deals will be guaranteed. Previously, teams could cut a player during Spring Training and only pay a portion of the agreed-upon figure. However, the new CBA stipulates that any player who settles on a salary without going to a hearing will be subject to full termination pay, even if released prior to the beginning of the season.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month but, as mentioned, it’s not uncommon for the deals agreed to at this time to come in below projections. This post may be updated later as more agreements come in…

Latest

  • The Tigers announced agreement on a deal with outfielder Austin Meadows. Financial terms are undisclosed. Meadows was projected for a $4MM salary. He’s coming off an injury-plagued first season in Detroit but is arbitration eligible twice more. [UPDATE: Meadows signed for $4.3MM, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.]
  • The Braves avoided arbitration with Mike Soroka on a $2.8MM contract, the club announced. It’s the same salary he’s made in each of the past two seasons, which is typical for an arbitration-eligible player who didn’t see any MLB action but was nevertheless tendered a contract. Soroka hasn’t pitched since 2020 on account of a pair of Achilles ruptures and some late-season elbow soreness, but he’s expected to compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. He’s arbitration eligible once more next winter.

Earlier Deals

  • The Pirates and infielder/outfielder Miguel Andujar agreed at $1.525MM, per Murray. Andujar was claimed off waivers from the Yankees in September.
  • The Padres announced that they have agreed to a one-year contract with left-hander Jose Castillo. The terms have not been disclosed.
  • The Diamondbacks announced they’ve agreed to a deal with reliever Cole Sulser. Financial terms haven’t been disclosed, but Sulser has been projected at $1MM. Arizona recently claimed him off waivers from the Marlins.
  • The Cubs and right-hander Adrian Sampson agreed to a $1.9MM salary, while fellow right-hander Rowan Wick will take home a $1.55MM salary in 2023, according to Jordan Bastion of MLB.com. Sampson broke out in 2022, finishing with a 3.11 ERA across 104 1/3 innings. Wick tossed 64 innings of relief, finishing up with a 4.22 ERA.
  • The Yankees and right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a salary of $4.1MM, per Feinsand. Trivino had been a solid reliever for Oakland over the past couple of years but struggled to a 6.47 ERA with them in 2022. He was dealt to the Yankees and then righted the ship with a 1.66 ERA the rest of the way.
  • The Rockies and Brent Suter avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $3MM salary, per Murray. Suter was claimed off waivers from the Brewers earlier today.
  • The Brewers and righty Matt Bush have agreed at $1.85MM, per Murray. Bush came over from the Rangers in a deadline deal. He posted a 2.95 ERA prior to the deal and a 4.30 after.
  • The Marlins and Dylan Floro are in agreement on a contract for 2023, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. He’ll make $3.9MM, Mish reports. Floro tossed 53 2/3 innings in 2022 with a 3.02 ERA.
  • The Brewers and right-hander Adrian Houser agreed on a $3.6MM salary, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The ground ball specialist saw his ERA jump from 3.22 in 2021 to 4.73 this year as his ground ball rate dropped from 59% to 46.7%. He’s likely the club’s sixth starter going into the winter and could jump into the rotation if someone gets injured.
  • The Phillies and right-hander Sam Coonrod have agreed on a salary of $775K, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He posted a 4.04 ERA in 2021 but was limited to just 12 2/3 innings this year due to a shoulder strain.
  • The Tigers and left-hander Tyler Alexander agreed on a salary of $1.875MM, per Murray. Alexander got into 27 games in 2022, 17 of those being starts. His 4.81 ERA was certainly on the high side, but he had a 3.81 in 2021.
  • The Yankees and shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $6M salary. You can read more about that here.
  • The Braves and left-hander Tyler Matzek avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year deal. You can read more about that here.
  • The Giants and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $6.1MM deal, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. He first qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player and earned $3.7MM in 2022. He took a step back at the plate this year with a line of .214/.305/.392 but still provided value with his glovework.

Cubs Claim Rylan Bannon From Braves

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The Cubs have claimed infielder Rylan Bannon off waivers from the Braves, according to a club announcement. Atlanta had designated him for assignment last week.

Bannon has moved around the league over the past couple months. A longtime Orioles farmhand, he was designated for assignment by Baltimore in early August. He moved to the Dodgers and Braves in rapid succession via waivers. He didn’t play in the majors with L.A. and only suited up once for Atlanta, appearing as a late-game defensive substitution. Bannon only has five games of big league experience overall, but he’s attracted interest from a number of teams as infield depth.

The 26-year-old has had some decent showings in the high minors. He’s a career .227/.337/.415 hitter at the Triple-A level. That includes a more impressive .249/.367/.421 line across 411 plate appearances this year. Bannon strikes out a fair amount, but he hit 13 home runs and walked in a stellar 14.4% of his trips to the plate. He’s also capable of playing either second or third base, making him a versatile depth piece.

With one minor league option year remaining, Bannon can be freely moved between Chicago and Triple-A Iowa next season if he holds his 40-man roster spot. His claim brings the Cubs 40-man roster tally to 39.

Braves Sign Tyler Matzek To Two-Year Contract

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The Braves announced that they have signed lefty Tyler Matzek to a two-year deal worth $3.1MM. There’s also a $5.5MM club option for 2025 with no buyout. He’ll make $1.2MM in the first year and $1.9MM in the second, according to Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Matzek had Tommy John surgery in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 season.

Matzek, 32, has been a feel-good story in recent years, as he was away from baseball for a while due to “the yips.” He pitched for the Rockies in 2014 and 2015 but then dealt with control problems so bad that he was relegated to the minors for chunks of the 2016-2019 period, including missing the 2017 season entirely and pitching in indy ball in 2018. He eventually made his way back to the majors and established himself as a useful piece of the Atlanta bullpen. From 2020 to the present, he’s thrown 135 2/3 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 38.2% ground ball rate and 27.4% strikeout rate, despite a high 13.4% walk rate.

Unfortunately, his story hit a snag at the end of this season, as he was left off the club’s NLDS roster due to elbow discomfort. The next day, it was announced that he would require Tommy John surgery. Given the typical 12-18 months required to recover from such a procedure, Matzek will almost certainly miss the entire 2023 campaign.

He went into this winter with just over four years of MLB service time, meaning he still had two more years of club control via the arbitration process. Given the lengthy absence he’s facing, Atlanta could have considered non-tendering him before tonight’s deadline, but they have instead agreed to a contract that will cover both his remaining arb seasons and potentially one free agent year as well. Matzek made $1.4MM in 2022 and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, prior to the Tommy John news, for a bump to $1.8MM. Atlanta will pay Matzek around the same rate he got in 2022 and won’t get anything for that investment in 2023 but could see it pay off down the line. For Matzek, it’s possible that he could have found a somewhat similar deal in free agency, as teams occasionally give two-year deals to injured pitchers even when they know they won’t be healthy for the first one. But he’s decided to stick with an organization he knows, continuing to earn a paycheck while rehabbing with the knowledge that he has a job waiting for him once he’s healthy.

Mets Claim William Woods

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The Mets have claimed right-hander William Woods off waivers from the Braves, per announcements from both clubs. Atlanta had designated Woods for assignment earlier in the week.

Woods, 23, tossed a pair of scoreless innings in his big league debut this season but was torched for a 6.04 ERA in 25 1/3 innings across three minor league levels as well. The former 23rd-rounder also gave up a dozen runs in 12 2/3 innings during this year’s Arizona Fall League.

Forearm and ankle injuries have limited Woods’ time on the mound across the past two seasons, and he was of course unable to pitch competitively in 2020 thanks to the canceled minor league season. His 2019 campaign showed a good bit of promise, as he tossed 51 innings of 3.35 ERA ball with a 26.6% strikeout rate in Class-A, though Woods also walked 13.3% of the hitters he faced that season.

Baseball America ranked Woods 21st and 25th in the Braves’ system over the past two seasons, noting that in single-inning stints his fastball can reach 100 mph. That pitch is complemented by a slider and changeup that, at times, look like potential above-average offerings.

Woods is the latest in a growing line of arms the Mets are stockpiling as they look to cultivate some depth in the upper minors. In addition to Woods, the Mets have claimed righty Stephen Ridings from the Yankees and acquired right-handers Elieser Hernandez and Jeff Brigham in a trade with the Marlins — all in the course of the past 72 hours. All four of those pitchers have minor league options remaining, which is surely key for the Mets.

It’s unlikely that any of that newly acquired quartet is viewed as a lock to make next year’s Opening Day roster, but Hernandez provides some depth at a time when Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker are all free agents. Meanwhile, the trio of Ridings, Brigham and now Woods create some optionable bullpen depth to a Mets club that has re-signed Edwin Diaz but has also seen each of Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Mychal Givens reach the open market.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves’ efforts to repeat as World Series champions fell short with a four-game Division Series loss to the Phillies. While it was a disappointing finish, there’s plenty of reason for optimism carrying into next season. The Braves won 101 games and were scorching hot from June onwards to claim a fifth straight NL East title. Much of that roster will be back, although they are facing the potential departure of their All-Star shortstop.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Austin Riley, 3B: $212MM through 2032 (deal also includes 2033 club option)
  • Matt Olson, 1B: $153MM through 2029 (deal also includes 2030 club option)
  • Ronald Acuña Jr., RF: $78MM through 2026 (including buyout of 2027 club option; deal also contains 2028 club option)
  • Spencer Strider, RHP: $75MM through 2028 (including buyout of 2029 club option)
  • Michael Harris II, CF: $72MM through 2030 (including buyout of 2031 club option; deal also contains 2032 club option)
  • Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $48MM through 2025
  • Marcell Ozuna, DH: $37MM through 2024 (including buyout of 2025 club option)
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $25MM through 2025 (including buyout of 2026 club option; deal also contains 2027 club option)
  • Charlie Morton: RHP: $20MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Eddie Rosario, LF: $9MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C: $8MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Kirby Yates, RHP: $7.25MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Collin McHugh, RHP: $6MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Manny Piña, C: $4.5MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Orlando Arcia, 2B: $1.4MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Nick Anderson, RHP: $875K through 2023 (arbitration-eligible through 2025)

Other financial commitments: Owe Rangers $10MM in 2023 as part of Jake Odorizzi trade

Total 2023 commitments: $164.675MM
Total future commitments: $767.025MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Total arbitration projection: $22.9MM

Non-tender candidate: Matzek

Free Agents

The Braves stormed back from a deficit that had been as high as 10 1/2 games to claim another division title. One could argue their 2022 team was the best they’ve had in this past half-decade of immense success, but they couldn’t repeat as World Series champions. Now they head into a second straight offseason with the potential departure of one of the winter’s top free agents.

After allowing Freddie Freeman to walk to the Dodgers last offseason, Atlanta has to decide how to proceed with Dansby Swanson. Like Freeman, Swanson has played his entire big league career in Atlanta (although he was originally drafted by the Diamondbacks). He’s an incredibly durable player who has reliably been in the Braves lineup almost every day for six-plus years. After some early-career offensive struggles, he’s turned a corner at the dish to pair with consistently strong shortstop defense.

Swanson has been an average or better hitter three years running. He’s coming off a .277/.329/.447 showing and reached the 25 home run mark for the second straight season. Swanson strikes out a bit more than average and doesn’t draw a ton of walks, but it’s rare to find plus defensive middle infielders with above-average power. The former #1 overall pick earned his first All-Star nod this past season and fits right alongside Javier Báez and Trevor Story — each of whom secured $140MM guarantees with opt-out clauses last winter — as free agent shortstops heading into their age-29 seasons. Swanson’s not elite, but he’s very good, and there’s no question the Braves would prefer to keep him around.

A Georgia native, Swanson has spoken in the past about his desire to return. While there’s clearly mutual interest, financials will needless to say play a big part in deciding whether he’s back in their lineup on Opening Day. Swanson hasn’t given any public indication he’s willing to take a massive discount to stick around, and he reportedly declined an offer in the $100MM range at some point during the season. Given how easily Báez and Story each topped that figure, it stands to reason Atlanta will have to raise their proposal significantly at this point — although, to be clear, a $100MM offer midway through what proved a career-best season to date may not have been all that unreasonable when the team first made it.

If Swanson does end up elsewhere, the Braves would recoup a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round in next year’s draft, since he rejected a qualifying offer. That’d soften the blow a bit, but it’d leave the win-now club with a major question at shortstop. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote earlier this week the Braves are unlikely to sign any of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts — each of whom is expected to command a loftier deal than Swanson. There’s a massive drop-off from Swanson to the fifth-best free agent shortstop, Elvis Andrus.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, the lack of mid-tier free agent shortstops this winter could lead president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff to turn to the trade market if they don’t succeed in re-upping Swanson. The Guardians’ Amed Rosario, Yankees’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Reds’ Kyle Farmer are among a handful of speculative possibilities who could provide adequate production as a stopgap, but each would be a marked downgrade from the defending Gold Glove winner.

There’s a chance Atlanta decides against diving into the free agent or trade markets. Orlando Arcia isn’t a great fit as an everyday player on a contender, but he’s coming off a reasonable 2022 showing that saw him help fill-in at second base when Ozzie Albies was injured. More interesting is the possibility of allowing top prospect Vaughn Grissom to take the reins.

Grissom, 22 in January, put himself firmly on the radar with a massive showing in High-A to start the season. He was bumped to Double-A and appeared in only 22 games there before the Braves surprisingly jumped him straight to the big leagues as part of a revolving door at second base with Albies out. He got out to a blistering start before his production tailed off, but a .291/.353/.440 line through his first 41 MLB games is impressive enough to at least put him in the conversation for an everyday job out of the gate.

Certainly, turning things over to Grissom would be a risky play. He has zero Triple-A experience, and he showed a very aggressive offensive approach in his early big league look which he’ll probably have to dial back. A shortstop for much of his minor league tenure, he played almost exclusively second base in the majors and didn’t rate well there in his brief debut. Prospect outlets have expressed some concern about whether he’s athletic enough to play an effective shortstop, and it’s possible the Braves are wary of handing him such a key responsibility. They’re not completely averse to the idea, though, as David O’Brien of the Athletic writes that Grissom has been working one-on-one with renowned infield coach Ron Washington to try to hone his shortstop skills.

The Anthopoulos front office hasn’t been afraid to trust its top young talents, even in the absence of much upper minors experience. Re-signing Swanson would certainly raise the team’s floor, but it’d also require adding another massive contract to an increasingly cluttered payroll ledger. Roster Resource projects the team’s Opening Day payroll in the $196MM range, and only Tyler Matzek (who has a modest $1.8MM arbitration projection) stands out as a potential non-tender candidate. Before considering a new Swanson deal or any external upgrades, the Braves are projected for a payroll almost $20MM above this past season’s approximate $178MM Opening Day mark, itself the highest in team history.

The Liberty Media ownership group is clearly comfortable with a franchise-record payroll, which isn’t surprising considering the amount of playoff revenue they’ve banked over the past five seasons. CEO Greg Maffei reiterated recently the team is willing to open next year in the top five spenders (via Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). That doesn’t inherently mean they’re pushing spending dramatically above where things already stand, however.

In the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Braves already rank fifth in projected 2023 payroll. Their luxury tax number is projected by both Cot’s and Roster Resource between $222MM and $228MM, with Cot’s pegging that third-highest in the majors. Bringing back Swanson would send the franchise soaring past next year’s $233MM base tax threshold. The Braves already are one of the sport’s top spenders, regardless of whether they make any more notable investments.

While that kind of stacked payroll ledger can sometimes reflect a number of undesirable contracts a team wishes it could shed, that’s not the case for the Braves. Their investments, by and large, are ones with which the front office is unquestionably happy. Atlanta has had more success than any other team in extending its long-term core.

Much of the offseason attention for the Braves being focused on shortstop is a testament to the strength of the roster that’s otherwise in place. It’s arguably the most complete in the majors, with the heavy lifting already done in most areas. Atlanta has one of the top catching groups, with Travis d’Arnaud under contract for just $8MM. He’s likely to split time with William Contreras, who broke out with a monster .278/.354/.506 showing over 97 games this year. Contreras could also see some action at designated hitter and in left field, particularly if the Braves carry three backstops on the active roster. Veteran Manny Piña will make $4.5MM in the second season of a two-year free agent deal; he lost almost all of this past season to left wrist surgery, and the Braves could look to offload some or all of his salary to a team with less catching depth.

The infield aside from shortstop is set. Matt Olson and Austin Riley will probably be the corner tandem for the entire decade. Albies will be the second baseman, hopefully with better injury luck than he experienced this past season. Arcia can bounce around as a depth piece off the bench.

Two outfield spots are also locked down. Ronald Acuña Jr. will be the right fielder, with Rosenthal quashing any nonsensical trade speculation involving one of the sport’s best young talents. Michael Harris II is in center field, fresh off a Rookie of the Year-winning season. Like Olson, Riley, and Albies, Acuña and Harris have already signed long-term extensions that’ll keep them around for the foreseeable future.

The only other question mark on the position player side is in left field. Adam Duvall is a free agent and didn’t play well anyhow. Eddie Rosario had a rough 2022 campaign even after undergoing surgery to correct the vision in his right eye. Marcell Ozuna returned to the roster after last year’s domestic violence arrest and suspension. He didn’t play well on either side of the ball and was charged with a DUI in August. Atlanta acquired Sam Hilliard from the Rockies to kick off the offseason, but he has huge strikeout issues and a career .294 on-base percentage despite spending his career to date in Colorado.

It’s not a great group, and the Braves could certainly look for upgrades. Mitch Haniger, Jurickson Profar, Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley are among the free agent corner outfielders available, while Andrew Benintendi figures to be a bit more expensive than the rest of that group. On the trade market, players like Max Kepler, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jesse Winker could be shopped by their current clubs. The Braves could also give Contreras regular run in left field, but he played just one game there this past season.

Atlanta would surely welcome the possibility of parting with Rosario or Ozuna, but neither is going to have much trade appeal. Finding a taker for a fraction of the $8MM due to Rosario next season could be viable, but the Braves may just prefer to hold him and hope for a bounceback. It’s hard to envision another team engineering even a swap of underwater deals to take on Ozuna, who’s due $37MM for the final two years of a contract that proved a rare misstep for the organization. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Braves release him entirely if he gets off to a slow start.

Just as there’s not much to quibble on the position player side, the pitching staff projects as one of the league’s best. Atlanta has a front four of Cy Young finalist Max Fried, Rookie of the Year runner-up Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton. Few teams can match that kind of 1-4, and there’s a chance the Braves try to work out long-term deals with either Fried or Wright. The former is already projected for a $12.2MM arbitration salary and just two years from the open market, so a Fried extension would be a much heftier investment. Wright is still a year from arbitration and under control for four seasons overall.

There’s a bit of uncertainty in the fifth spot, which Jake Odorizzi failed to effectively seize after being acquired from the Astros at the trade deadline. Atlanta felt comfortable enough with its in-house depth to ship away Odorizzi days after he exercised his $12.5MM option, paying down $10MM of the deal and receiving depth arm Kolby Allard from the Rangers in return.

It was a vote of confidence some younger arms in the system can outperform Odorizzi, as Atlanta only saved $2.5MM. Anthopoulos pointed to Bryce Elder, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson and Kyle Muller as pitchers who could battle for the final spot. Anderson and Soroka each looked like core pieces of the future not too long ago. The former had a rough 2022 season, while the latter has had a nightmarish stretch of Achilles injuries that have cost him two-plus years. That duo has shown plenty of talent, however, and they pair with Elder — a well-regarded prospect who made his first 10 MLB appearances this past season — as depth options with some upside. Righty Freddy Tarnok could eventually get a look as well after a strong showing in the upper minors that briefly earned him his big league debut.

The Braves could scour the market for a depth starter, but they don’t have to force any additions considering the volume of in-house arms. Elder, Muller and Tarnok could trickle into a bullpen that also looks like one of the game’s best units. A.J. Minter broke out as an elite arm from the left side, backed up by the more quietly excellent Dylan Lee. The Braves agreed to take on the last three years of Raisel Iglesias’ contract in a deadline swap with the Angels, giving them a ready-made closing replacement if Kenley Jansen walks in free agency. Collin McHugh gives them a high-leverage setup type from the right side, and the Braves have rolled the dice on former stars Kirby Yates and Nick Anderson, each of whom are trying to regain their footing after lengthy injury rehabs. Atlanta could be a fit for a stable middle innings type — particularly one who throws right-handed — but that’s more of a luxury buy than a pressing concern.

That’s true of much of the roster, one which looks poised to remain among the sport’s best for a number of seasons. So much of the offseason attention will be focused on the shortstop uncertainty, but the Braves will enter the year as one of the likeliest teams to compete for a World Series if Swanson returns or not. Anthopoulos and his group won’t be complacent in a division that also features another 100-win team and the defending NL pennant winners, but the Braves are in excellent shape for this offseason and many beyond.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Braves-centric chat on 11-19-22 at 11:00 am CST. Click here to view the transcript.

Sandy Alcantara Wins National League Cy Young Award

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Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara has won the National League Cy Young award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. It was a unanimous victory, with Alcantara receiving all 30 first place votes. He was followed in the voting by Max Fried of the Braves and Julio Urías of the Dodgers.

Alcantara has been the presumptive favorite for quite some time, and the unanimous voting serves as a particular testament to the caliber of season he put together. The right-hander easily lapped the field in innings, soaking up 228 2/3 frames that cleared second-place finisher Aaron Nola by 23 2/3. Alcantara and Nola were the only Senior Circuit pitchers to throw multiple complete games; Nola went the distance twice, while Alcantara did so six times. He also faced a league-leading 886 batters, with Nola’s 807 batters faced an extremely distant second.

That kind of throwback, workhorse mentality was part of what set Alcantara apart from the rest of the league, but he continued to perform brilliantly on a rate basis. Among NL starters with 100+ innings, he ranked fourth in ERA (2.28) and sixth in ground-ball percentage (53.4%). His 23.4% strikeout percentage was more good than elite, but he rarely issued free passes and kept the ball on the ground while consistently going deep into games.

Along the way, the 27-year-old earned the second All-Star nod of his career. Alcantara had posted an ERA between 3.00 and 4.00 in each of his first four seasons with the Fish to emerge as a top-of-the-rotation caliber arm. Miami inked him to a $56MM extension last offseason, a deal that extended their window of control through 2027. That seemed a strong move for general manager Kim Ng and her staff at the time, and it now stands as an absolute bargain with Alcantara cementing himself upon the game’s top handful of pitchers.

It’s the first Cy Young nod for the native of the Dominican Republic, who’d never previously appeared on an awards ballot. Fried and Urías each picked up some support for the second time. The Atlanta southpaw finished fifth in Cy Young balloting in 2020, while the L.A. hurler placed seventh last year. Both earned a top-three placement for the first time this year, with sub-2.50 ERA showings. Fried twirled 185 1/3 innings of 2.48 ball, while Urías led qualified starters with a 2.16 ERA.

Fried picked up 10 second-place votes, and Urías was the runner-up on seven ballots. Nola, Zac Gallen, Carlos Rodón, Corbin Burnes and Edwin Díaz were the other players to receive at least one second-place vote. Nola and Gallen placed fourth and fifth, respectively. Rodón, Burnes, Díaz, Yu Darvish, Kyle Wright, Logan Webb and Ryan Helsley were the other players to appear on a ballot.

Full voting breakdown available here.

Braves Unlikely To Pursue Big Name Shortstops If Swanson Signs Elsewhere

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The Braves have had more success in extending young, core players than any team in recent memory, but for a second straight offseason they’re facing the potential departure of a longtime regular who’s helped to anchor the infield. Dansby Swanson, like Freddie Freeman before him, reached the open market without signing an extension, has rejected a qualifying offer and is now free to field interest from the game’s other 29 teams.

Atlanta reportedly offered Swanson an extension in the neighborhood of $100MM at some point over the course of the season, but the widespread expectation is for him to outpace that guarantee by a comfortable margin. (MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $154MM contract on last week’s Top 50 free agent list.) One of the biggest questions on the minds of Braves fans is just what the team will do at shortstop. Can Swanson be retained? And, if not, where does the team turn? The market offers a trio of high-end alternatives in the form of Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports, however, it’s unlikely that the Braves will make a legitimate play to sign any of the big free-agent shortstops other than Swanson. President of baseball ops Alex Anthopoulos went out of his way to mention Vaughn Grissom and Orlando Arcia as in-house alternatives at last week’s GM Meetings, and Rosenthal adds that the Braves are generally reluctant to add a major salary that “takes up too high a percentage of their payroll” — including oft-speculated fit Jacob deGrom.

Braves fans were understandably heartened by CEO Terry McGuirk’s comments about Atlanta growing to have one of the game’s five largest payrolls, but what McGuirk didn’t stress was just how close the Braves already are to reaching that territory before making a single addition. Last month at MLBTR, I pointed out that for the Braves to make even one high-priced acquisition, they’d need to exceed the luxury-tax threshold; making a pair of big-name additions — or signing one premier free agent and, say, extending Max Fried — could shatter the threshold and send the team barreling into at least the second tier of luxury penalization.

As things currently stand, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects the Braves to be less than $5MM away from tier one of the luxury tax . They’d be a first-time luxury payor, so the penalty on the first $20MM by which they cross that threshold would “only” be 20%. The penalty on the next $20MM would jump to a 32% tax.

We’ll get back to the shortstop quandary, but it’s worth digressing and taking a deeper look at just what the luxury tax realities might look like for the Braves.

To put this into more specific context, we can use deGrom as an example. Many believe that the four-time All-Star and two-time Cy Young winner could secure an average annual value of $40MM or more this winter. A $40MM AAV on deGrom would push the Braves’ luxury-tax bill up into the $268MM range — an overage of roughly $35MM. The 20% tax on that first $20MM would come out to $4MM, and the 32% tax they’d be paying on the next $15MM would be another $4.8MM. So to sign deGrom for a $40MM AAV, the Braves would effectively need to be willing to pay $48.8MM in total — at least for the upcoming season. With Justin Verlander seeking a deal comparable to that of Max Scherzer, this can all be applied to him as well.

It’s a similar, but not quite so extreme case with Swanson. Using the $22MM AAV on MLBTR’s predicted contract as an example, Swanson would push the Braves a bit more than $17MM over the luxury tax on his own. That’d make our predicted $22MM AAV more akin to paying $25.4MM this season. And, of course, signing Swanson at that rate would mean that any subsequent salary additions of note would then push the Braves into the second tier of penalization, subjecting them to the same 32% rate mentioned in the deGrom example.

The other wrinkle is that any such signing would further cause the team’s luxury bill to balloon in future seasons. The Braves already have about $135MM of luxury obligations on their 2024 payroll, two years down the road, and that doesn’t include potential club option pickups for veterans like Charlie Morton, Kirby Yates and Collin McHugh — nor does it include arbitration salaries for Fried, A.J. Minter and Kyle Wright. Paying the luxury tax for consecutive seasons would cause those rates of penalization also increase (30% in tier one, 42% in tier two, etc.).

Certainly, there are ways for the Braves to lower their current luxury tab and provide further breathing room, though the path to doing so is not an easy one. There’s little hope of finding a team willing to cover even a small portion of the $36MM still owed to Marcell Ozuna through 2024. Atlanta would probably welcome the opportunity to shed the $9MM owed to Eddie Rosario in 2023, but that’s also far easier said than done after he hit .212/.259/.328 in the first season of a two-year, $18MM contract. One recent source of Twitter speculation among fans — a possible trade of Ronald Acuna Jr. — is not something the Braves are considering, per Rosenthal.

Lengthy digression aside, let’s get back to the shortstop question. If, as Rosenthal suggests, the team is likely to be “out of the picture” for any of Correa, Turner or Bogaerts in the event of a Swanson departure, what might that mean for their 2023 outlook at shortstop?

Grissom and Arcia are in-house candidates, as alluded to by Anthopoulos, but Grissom’s bat wilted after a torrid start to his rookie season in 2022. He still finished with a terrific .291/.353/.440 batting line in 156 plate appearances, but Grissom slashed .420/.463/.660 in his first 54 plate appearances and just .220/.294/.319 over his final 102 trips to the plate. He also skipped Triple-A entirely on his way to the Majors, and scouting opinions on his long-term outlook at shortstop vary. Arcia, once one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, was a roughly league-average hitter in a part-time role last year but carries a .233/.288/.356 slash (70 wRC+) over the past five years.

The free-agent market has some modest stopgaps who could help ease Grissom into the full-time role at shortstop. Elvis Andrus was released by the A’s over the summer, but that was more about preventing his 2023 vesting option from kicking in than about his play. He had a strong finish after signing with the White Sox and hit a combined .249/.303/.404 with 17 homers and 18 steals between the two clubs. Jose Iglesias keeps hitting for average and rarely striking out — .291/.325/.408, 13.1% strikeout rate since 2019 — but defensive metrics have soured on the soon-to-be 33-year-old over the past two seasons. Old friend Andrelton Simmons is a free agent, too, but he’s batted just .216/.277/.261 in 536 plate appearances since Opening Day 2021.

None of those free-agent options are going to inspire Braves fans much — save for the possible nostalgia of a Simmons reunion — but they highlight the fact that it’s a thin crop beyond the “Big Four.” The trade market, then, could be a more palatable approach for Anthopoulos to explore. Cleveland’s Amed Rosario is a clear trade candidate with just a year to go before free agency and a mounting (by the Guardians’ standards) price tag. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9MM next year, and a low-payroll Guardians club that’s deep in MLB-ready middle infield prospects could look to cash in on the 27-year-old, as I recently explored at greater length.

The Yankees figure to be open to moving on from Isiah Kiner-Falefa now that Oswald Peraza is ready for a look in the Majors. The Reds would likely be open to dealing Kyle Farmer, with whom Anthopoulos is surely familiar dating back to his Dodgers days. Arizona’s Nick Ahmed and St. Louis’ Paul DeJong are veteran alternatives who could be had for pennies on the dollar, as the D-backs and Cardinals would surely welcome the chance to just shed some of the respective $10MM and $11MM remaining on their contracts. Both are buy-low options, at best, coming off poor showings in recent seasons. Any of Kevin Newman (Pirates), Nicky Lopez (Royals) or the oft-injured Adalberto Mondesi (Royals) could likely be had in a deal, but each has some obvious red flags.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Braves plan to simply stand pat this winter. A reunion with Swanson remains eminently plausible, even if previous extension attempts with his representatives — the same agents who represent Freeman, for what it’s worth — have yet to bear fruit. It’d push the Braves into luxury territory for the first time in franchise history, but based on McGuirk’s comments about a potential top-five payroll club, that’s something on which the front office will have a green light, at least with regard to Swanson.

What does seems far less likely is a lavish spending spree that sees the Braves make multiple marquee splashes on the free-agent market. If Swanson does sign elsewhere, it’s the bulk of the Braves’ heavy lifting may very well come via the trade market and the middle tiers of the free-agent market.

Braves Acquire Dennis Santana From Rangers

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The Rangers announced they’ve traded reliever Dennis Santana to the Braves in exchange for cash considerations. Atlanta designated Jackson Stephens for assignment in a corresponding 40-man roster move.

Santana soaked up plenty 0f middle relief innings in Arlington, pitching 58 2/3 frames across 63 outings. He generally struggled over that stretch, posting a 5.22 ERA with a below-average 21.2% strikeout percentage and an elevated 11% walk rate. The right-hander has posted subpar strikeout and walk marks throughout his parts of five seasons in the majors with the Dodgers and Rangers, contributing to a career 5.12 ERA over 139 innings.

The 26-year-old has flashed some interesting traits that suggest he could yet be a productive MLB bullpen arm. He’s gotten swinging strikes between 11% and 12% of his total offerings the past couple seasons, a solid enough rate. Santana has also induced ground-balls on almost half the batted balls against him the last couple years, and his sinker sat just under 97 MPH this past season. He had some success against left and right-handed hitters alike, but he was victimized by an extremely low strand rate that’s likely to bounce back moving forward.

Santana is out of minor league option years, so he’ll have to break camp on the Atlanta roster or be made available to other teams. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to receive a $1.1MM salary if tendered an arbitration contract, and the Braves’ acquisition suggests they could be prepared to do so this week. That’d figure to give him an inside shot at securing a middle relief role out of Spring Training.

Stephens inked a minor league deal with Atlanta over the offseason. He cracked the big league roster a few days into the year and wound up tallying 53 2/3 innings across 39 outings. The 28-year-old had a solid 3.69 ERA with a decent 46.3% grounder percentage but a 20% strikeout rate. Stephens’ swing-and-miss rate also sat at a subpar 9.3%, and the Braves have elected to roll the dice on Santana’s upside in swapping out potential middle innings arms.

Atlanta will have a week to deal Stephens or run him through waivers. If he goes unclaimed, he’d have the right to become a minor league free agent.

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