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12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

Braves Announce Several Roster Moves

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The Braves have announced several roster moves in advance of today’s Rule 5 protection deadline. Infielder Braden Shewmake as well as right-handers Roddery Munoz and Darius Vines have been added to the club’s 40-man roster. In corresponding moves, outfielder Guillermo Heredia as well as right-handers William Woods and Silvino Bracho were designated for assignment.

Heredia’s DFA should come as little surprise, given that he was an obvious non-tender candidate on the heels of a .158/.220/.342 showing in 82 plate appearances with the Braves this season. While the 31-year-old can handle all three outfield spots and has at times looked the part of a solid, short-side platoon player in his seven-year Major League career, he’s never shed the part-time player label and owns just a .231/.310/.346 batting line in 1566 career plate appearances.

Woods, 23, tossed a pair of scoreless innings in his big league debut this season but was torched for a 6.04 ERA in 25 1/3 innings across three minor league levels as well. The former 23rd-rounder also gave up a dozen runs in 12 2/3 innings during this year’s Arizona Fall League.

Bracho was acquired from the Red Sox for cash over the summer and surrendered three runs in 4 1/3 innings for the Braves. The longtime D-backs righty posted a strong 2.67 ERA in 57 1/3 innings between the Triple-A affiliates for Boston and Atlanta, including a particularly impressive 70-to-10 K/BB ratio. The Braves would’ve had to pay him slightly north of the big league minimum as an arb-eligible player, however, and Bracho’s status as a journeyman who’s thrown just 5 1/3 Major League innings since 2018 — in part due to Tommy John surgery — always left him as a likely non-tender candidate.

The Opener: QO Deadline, Rule 5 Deadline, Manager Of The Year

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As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be watching throughout the day today:

1. Qualifying Offer Decisions Due Today

The 14 players who received qualifying offers must either accept or decline the offer by 3:00p, central time this afternoon. While most of these players will make the easy and obvious decision to reject the QO, a few players have a more interesting decision on their hands. Rangers lefty Martin Perez is an example of someone who may accept a QO, though he joins Red Sox righty Nathan Eovaldi as someone who is in negotiations with his 2022 club on a multi-year deal, which could be ironed out in place of the one-year, $19.65MM QO contract. Such a deal could even occur after this deadline as passed, as was the case for Jose Abreu and the White Sox after the 2019 season. Giants outfielder Joc Pederson, Dodgers lefty Tyler Anderson and Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo are among the other candidates to accept the offer, though Rizzo has already reportedly drawn strong interest from the Astros even in spite of his QO.

2. Rule 5 Deadline Looms This Evening

Teams must set their 40-man rosters in advance of the upcoming Rule 5 Draft by 5:00pm central time this evening. Seeing as there was no major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft last offseason, teams will have more prospects than usual in need of protection, potentially resulting in a larger roster crunch than usual for many teams. The Rays have already made a pair of moves to clear roster space, and are expected to make more trades before the deadline tonight. While they may be among the most active teams today, it’s safe to say most teams will be making roster moves throughout the day leading up to this evening’s deadline.

3. Manager Of The Year Results Announced Tonight

Awards season continues tonight with the AL and NL Manager of the Year awards being announced this evening. In the AL, Terry Francona of the Guardians, Brandon Hyde of the Orioles, and Scott Servais of the Mariners are the finalists, while in the NL, it’ll be either Brian Snitker of the Braves, Dave Roberts of the Dodgers, or Buck Showalter of the Mets. Each finalist has an interesting case for the award to set themselves apart from the rest of the field. Francona’s Guardians achieved a surprise division title, overtaking the favored White Sox and Twins despite an extremely young roster and a far lower payroll than either of their division rivals. Hyde and the Orioles, despite not making the postseason, also massively overperformed expectations, staying in the postseason hunt through most of September after years of 100 loss seasons. Servais, meanwhile, led a Mariners club that ended the longest active playoff drought in the sport, bringing playoff baseball back to Seattle for the first time since 2001. Roberts and the Dodgers delivered a monster 111-win season that stands among the best in history, while Buck Showalter returned to the dugout to lead the Mets to a 100-win season of their own. Snitker, meanwhile, makes his case through Atlanta’s impressive September in which they ran down Showalter’s Mets for the division title. Results will be announced at 5:00pm central time this evening.

Michael Harris II Wins National League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Braves center fielder Michael Harris II has won the National League Rookie of the Year award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. He was followed by teammate Spencer Strider and Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan in second and third place, respectively.

This has long been viewed as a two-horse race, with the pair of Atlanta players separating themselves from the pack. Harris, a third-round pick in 2019, emerged as one of the game’s more interesting prospects with a breakout 2021 showing in High-A. He began this year in Double-A but quickly proved too advanced for the level, tearing apart opposing pitchers through 43 games. The Braves made the bold decision to skip him over Triple-A entirely, installing him as the everyday center fielder upon calling him to the big leagues in late May.

Harris stepped in excellently for the defending World Series winners. The left-handed hitter posted  a .297/.339/.514 line through his first 441 big league plate appearances. He didn’t draw many walks, but Harris hit nearly .300 while connecting on 19 home runs and swiping 20 bases. He also played excellent center field defense, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him as eight runs above average with the glove. Statcast estimated he was six runs above par, and the 21-year-old now looks like one of the most promising two-way position players in the game.

Strider, meanwhile, looks like one of the sport’s top young arms. A fourth-round draftee in 2020, he immediately outperformed that fairly modest selection. The right-hander earned a brief big league audition late last season and began this year in the MLB bullpen. By mid-May, he’d been moved to the rotation, and his excellent fastball-slider combination continued to befuddle big league hitters. The 24-year-old combined for 131 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA ball between the bullpen and the starting staff, striking out an incredible 38.3% of opponents along the way.

A top-two finish in Rookie of the Year balloting takes on significance beyond its mere prestige value now, thanks to provisions in the new collective bargaining agreement. The CBA contained measures designed to counteract service time manipulation through the so-called “prospect promotion incentive.” Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year.

Harris meets all three criteria and will thus earn a full service year, although he inked an eight-year contract extension midseason that negates any chance he’ll ever proceed through arbitration and pushed back his path to free agency. The full service year will have a small move in Harris’ eventual push for 10 years in the majors and its associated pension and possible no-trade benefits. Strider earned a full service year by playing 172-plus days on the MLB roster regardless, although he also later signed an extension.

The second element of the PPI won’t come into play in the National League. A player who meets the aforementioned prospect criteria, entered the year with less than 60 days of service and spent enough time on the MLB roster to earn a full service year independent of the awards finish would net their team a bonus draft choice with a top-two finish. Harris qualified for the prospect criteria but was not on the MLB roster long enough for a full service year without the award bonus. Strider did accrue the service time element but did not appear on a preseason Top 100 at any of MLB Pipeline, BA or ESPN. Unlike the Mariners, who received an extra selection based on Julio Rodríguez’s AL ROY win, the Braves will not accrue a bonus pick.

Harris picked up 22 of 30 first-place nods, with Strider collecting the other eight votes. Harris and Strider were 1-2 in some order on 29 of 30 ballots, with Reds closer Alexis Díaz earning the other second-place vote. Donovan earned a third-place finish with a .281/.394/.379 showing over 468 plate appearances in a utility capacity for St. Louis; he grabbed 22 third-place votes. Arizona outfielder Jake McCarthy, Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo and Pittsburgh shortstop Oneil Cruz joined Díaz in picking up stray support.

Full vote breakdown available here.

Braves Re-Sign Jesse Chavez

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The Braves have re-signed right-hander Jesse Chavez, as announced by Chavez himself on Instagram.  The Athletic’s David O’Brien reports that it is a minor league deal for the 39-year-old, and it presumably contains an invitation to the Braves’ big league Spring Training camp.  Chavez will receive $1.2MM in guaranteed money if he makes Atlanta’s active roster, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).

As he approaches what would his 16th Major League season, this would be Chavez’s fifth different stint with Atlanta.  After appearing in 28 games with the Braves way back in the 2010 season, Chavez returned in 2021 and became a very effective weapon out of the bullpen for the World Series champions.  He signed a free agent deal with the Cubs last offseason, but was then quickly dealt back to the Braves in April, and then traded again to the Angels as part of the trade deadline swap that sent Raisel Iglesias to Atlanta.  Finally, the Angels released Chavez in August, and he returned to the Braves via waiver claim.

Even with all this movement, 2022 was another solid year on the mound for the veteran, as Chavez had a 3.76 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate, and 6.8% walk rate over 69 1/3 combined innings.  While Chavez did allow a lot of hard contact, his wOBA (.325) and xwOBA (.321) were virtually identical, and Chavez was actually on the bad end of the batted-ball fortune scale, as per his .333 BABIP.  It has made for a nice late-career revival for Chavez, and while it didn’t translate into a guaranteed deal, it seems quite likely that he’ll turn up in Atlanta’s bullpen perhaps as early as Opening Day.

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has a habit of moves relatively early in the offseason, and he has already added both Chavez and Nick Anderson (on a split contract) to the bullpen mix.  Kolby Allard may also be an option for the relief corps, after the Braves re-acquired the southpaw from the Rangers in the Jake Odorizzi swap.

Braves Designate Rylan Bannon For Assignment

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The Braves announced this evening they’ve designated infielder Rylan Bannon for assignment. The move opens a 40-man roster spot for Nick Anderson, who has been signed to a one-year contract as previously reported.

Bannon has moved around the league over the past couple months. A longtime Orioles farmhand, he was designated for assignment by Baltimore in early August. He moved to the Dodgers and Braves in rapid succession via waivers. He didn’t play in the majors with L.A. and only suited up once for Atlanta, appearing as a late-game defensive substitution. Bannon only has five games of big league experience overall, but he’s attracted interest from a number of teams as infield depth.

A Xavier University product, he put together a .249/.367/.421 line over 411 Triple-A plate appearances this year. Bannon connected on 13 home runs and walked in a stellar 14.4% of his trips to the plate at that level. He punched out at a slightly elevated 24.3% clip, but he blended a very patient approach with decent power. The 26-year-old can’t play shortstop, though he’s capable of suiting up at either second or third base.

The Braves will now have a week to trade Bannon or look to run him through waivers. He still has a minor league option year remaining, so he could occupy a similar depth role he played this past season if another team is willing to hand him a 40-man roster spot.

Braves To Sign Nick Anderson

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The Braves are signing right-hander Nick Anderson, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. It’s a split deal where Anderson will earn $875K in the big leagues and $180K in the minors.

Anderson, 32, was one of the best relievers in the league over 2019 and 2020. Splitting his time between the Marlins and Rays, he pitched 81 1/3 innings over those two campaigns. In that time, he had a combined 2.77 ERA, along with absurd rate stats, striking out 42.2% of batters faced while walking just 6.5% of them.

Anderson has faced his share of struggles over the past two years, however. He was diagnosed with a partial UCL tear during Spring Training in 2021. He made just six appearances before going on the IL and never returned. He underwent a UCL brace procedure in October of that year and didn’t return until August of 2022. Upon his return, the Rays kept him in the minors until plantar fasciitis ended his season.

Anderson was eligible for arbitration this year, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a contract of $845K, just a smidge above next year’s $720K league minimum. Despite that modest price point, the Rays were facing a roster crunch and decided to move on from Anderson. He was placed on waivers this week and cleared. Since he has over three years of MLB service time, he was eligible to elect free agency and did so.

For Atlanta, this is a low-risk, high-reward play. Anderson isn’t costing much, and would be huge value if he can rediscover his previous form. It’s possible that the injuries prevent him from reaching his previous heights, but in that scenario, they will have lost a small amount of money in MLB terms. If the gamble pays off, there will be long-term benefits, since Anderson could be retained for two more seasons via arbitration.

It’s possible Atlanta is facing an offseason of tight spending, despite five straight NL East titles. The club has never paid the competitive balance tax before, but their slew of contract extensions have pushed them close to the brink. The lowest CBT threshold for 2023 is $233MM, and the club is currently at $228MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. It’s possible that the club is willing to pay the tax for the first time in order to retain Dansby Swanson at shortstop or else replace him. In the meantime, they’ve found a low-cost flier that could potentially help their bullpen.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Braves Select Michael Tonkin, Seth Elledge

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The Braves announced some roster moves today, selecting the contracts of right-handers Michael Tonkin and Seth Elledge. They also reinstated catcher Manny Piña and righty Huascar Ynoa from the injured list. The 40-man roster is now full.

Both Tonkin and Elledge signed minor league deals with the club last offseason and would have been able to elect minor league free agency today. However, it seems Atlanta was impressed enough by both of their minor league seasons that they wanted to prevent them from getting away and have given each of them spots on the 40-man roster.

Tonkin, 33 next week, got some MLB action with the Twins from 2013 to 2017 but hasn’t made it back to the big leagues since. He has a career 4.43 ERA in 146 1/3 innings from that time. In the years since, he’s bounced around quite a bit, including stints in Japan and with Indy Ball teams. In 2022, he spent the whole season with Triple-A Gwinnett, throwing 48 1/3 innings over 47 appearances. He posted a 3.17 ERA along with excellent rate stats, such as a 36.5% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 50% ground ball rate. He’s out of options but the club evidently thinks there’s a chance he can help the big league bullpen next year.

Elledge, 27 in May, got brief MLB stints with the Cardinals in 2020 and 2021, bizarrely throwing exactly 11 2/3 innings and posting a 4.63 ERA in each of those two campaigns. He was designated for assignment and outrighted in October of last year before joining the Braves on a minor league deal. He made 43 appearances for Gwinnett, tossing 46 1/3 innings with a 3.88 ERA. That came with an excellent strikeout rate of 33.7%. Unlike Tonkin, he does have options remaining and can serve as depth in the minor leagues next season.

As for Piña and Ynoa, those moves are formalities as there is no injured list in the offseason, meaning the club had to either reinstate those players or else cut them from the roster entirely. It was around this time last year when Atlanta signed Piña to a two-year deal. Unfortunately, he required season-ending wrist surgery in May after getting into just five games. As for Ynoa, he underwent Tommy John surgery in September and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. If he hangs onto his roster spot through the winter, he can spend all of next year on the 60-day IL.

Rangers, Braves Swap Jake Odorizzi, Kolby Allard

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The Rangers kicked off their search for rotation help Thursday evening, announcing the acquisition of right-hander Jake Odorizzi from the Braves. Atlanta receives lefty Kolby Allard in a one-for-one swap that also sees the Braves pay down a notable portion of Odorizzi’s salary. Atlanta will reportedly cover $10MM of his $12.5MM figure, which was locked in when the veteran starter exercised a player option for next year.

Going into 2021, Odorizzi signed a two-year, $23.5MM guarantee with the Astros with a convoluted structure. He received a $6MM signing bonus and $6MM salary in 2021, followed by a $5MM salary in 2022. That was to be followed by a $6.5MM player option with a $3.25MM buyout. However, there were also performance escalators that could increase the value of both the option and the buyout. Over the initial two years of the deal, if Odorizzi got into 20, 25 and 30 games, he would add $2MM to the salary and $1MM to the buyout at each of those milestones. He easily hit all three, getting into 46 games, maxing out the option value at $12.5MM.

Odorizzi posted a 4.21 ERA with Houston in 2021 and then had a 3.75 mark at the deadline when he was traded to Atlanta for Will Smith. Unfortunately, the uniform switch didn’t help him, as he posted a 5.24 mark after the deal. He also had a 6.59 ERA in the shortened 2020 season, meaning he hasn’t seen strong results over the past three years. Though he had a 27.1% strikeout rate in 2019, he’s been hovering around 20% since then, a few ticks below league average.

Atlanta was clearly not terribly excited about the idea of paying him $12.5MM, based both on their tight payroll situation and Odorizzi’s results. He likely isn’t one of their five best starters anyway, as they have Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Charlie Morton, and Spencer Strider for the first four spots, with Bryce Elder, Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller and Jared Shuster candidates for the fifth. They’ll pick up only $2.5MM in salary relief, but the deal clears a path for some of their younger arms to compete for a back-of-the-rotation job.

The Rangers are in need of rotation upgrades after getting poor results in that department in 2022. Texas starters posted a collective 4.63 ERA this year, placing them 25th in the majors. They got some decent work from Jon Gray and a career year from veteran Martín Pérez, though Pérez has now reached free agency and deprived the already-weak rotation of its strongest performer. There’s reportedly mutual interest in a reunion, though nothing has been finalized yet and the club is now likely to extend him a $19.65MM qualifying offer.

With Pérez still in the wind, that leaves Texas with Gray and a host of question marks behind him. Dane Dunning was decent enough, posting a 4.46 ERA this year over 29 starts. However, his season was finished by hip surgery and it’s unclear what condition he’ll be in next year. Glenn Otto made 27 starts and posted an ERA of 4.64. The club also gave a handful of starts to Taylor Hearn, Cole Ragans and Spencer Howard, though they all posted an ERA of 4.95 or higher. Given all that uncertainty, it would be logical for them to consider any and all avenues to upgrade the staff, with general manager Chris Young saying basically that at the GM Meetings in Las Vegas this week, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. That will apparently include giving Odorizzi a shot to produce some better results.

In addition to clearing a bit of salary off the books, Atlanta will receive another arm in Allard. The 25-year-old was actually drafted by Atlanta in the first round back in 2015 but went to the Rangers in 2019 in exchange for Chris Martin. He’s pitched in each of the past five MLB seasons but has a career 6.07 ERA. He has decent control with a 7.8% walk rate in his career, though his 18.6% strikeout rate and 37.8% ground ball rate are both subpar. He had been part of the Ranger rotation from 2019-21 but got bumped to bullpen work in 2022. The move didn’t help him, as he put up a 7.29 ERA over 21 innings out of the ’pen.

In the end, it seems both teams are giving up on pitchers that weren’t in their plans going forward. Texas is desperate for rotation stability and will see if Odorizzi can provide it, with Atlanta helping them pay the bill. It’s likely to be one of several moves to address the starting staff as they look to emerge from their years-long rebuild. For Atlanta, they are sending away some cash but will at least save a couple of bucks as they look to revamp and try to win a sixth straight NL East title.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first to report the Braves were paying $10MM of Odorizzi’s salary.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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