Astros GM: No Interest In Trading Alex Bregman
Astros general manager Dana Brown spoke with reporters at this week’s Winter Meetings. Most notably, the second-year baseball operations leader emphatically shot down speculation about the possibility of moving star third baseman Alex Bregman.
“We’re not interested in trading him,” Brown said (video provided by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). “I think Alex knows that and understands that based on our conversations, so I’m not worried one bit about the articles and the rumors. At the end of the day, Alex is a pillar here. … We’re trying to win here.”
That’s a rather firm rejection of any suggestion the Astros could look to deal the two-time All-Star before his final season under contract. Bregman will make $28.5MM next year and hit free agency going into his age-31 campaign. Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote over the weekend that while the Houston organization wasn’t optimistic about the chances of another extension, they had no intention of trading him.
With Houston still firmly in win-now mode as they battle with the World Series champion Rangers (and perhaps the Mariners or Angels) atop the AL West, it’s an understandable course of action. Bregman remains an excellent player, hitting .262/.363/.441 with 25 home runs while appearing in 161 games last season. While his production has dropped from his MVP finalist level of 2018-19, he’s still one of the sport’s best third basemen.
Brown also discussed a few other matters. He noted the club received a fourth minor league option on right-hander Forrest Whitley (via Rome). The one-time top prospect is apparently being moved to relief, as he’ll compete for a bullpen spot in Spring Training. Brown indicated a few months ago that Houston would seek an additional option on Whitley, who has missed extended time in the minor leagues because of various injuries and a 2018 suspension for a violation of the drug program. Whitley has yet to make his major league debut despite being on the 40-man roster since 2020.
Upgrading the relief corps still seems a priority for a front office that saw each of Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton hit free agency. Brown reiterated that bolstering the bullpen and adding a backup catcher remained offseason goals, although he hinted he might be cautious on the relief front. “I’m not interested in overpaying in the relief market,” he told the Houston beat (relayed by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).
Diamondbacks Sign Ricky Karcher To Minor League Deal
The D-Backs have signed reliever Ricky Karcher to a minor league contract, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America. The Snakes also brought back Humberto Castellanos on a non-roster deal.
Karcher joins the second organization of his career. The Reds selected him in the 13th round of the 2017 draft. The 6’4″ righty moved to the bullpen full-time in 2021. He has shown the ability to miss plenty of bats in the minor leagues but also demonstrated significant control issues. In parts of six minor league seasons, he owns a 26.4% strikeout rate while walking a massive 20.4% of batters faced.
Despite the strike-throwing concerns, Cincinnati added Karcher to the 40-man roster last offseason. That kept him out of the Rule 5 draft. They called him up for the first time in early June. He pitched once, tossing a scoreless inning against the Royals. Karcher averaged just under 98 MPH with his fastball in that appearance, pointing to the power arsenal he has shown in the minors.
That wasn’t enough to hold his roster spot with the Reds. The 26-year-old had a rough season at Triple-A Louisville, where he walked almost a quarter of his opponents over 60 1/3 innings. He posted a 4.77 ERA in 51 outings there, with Cincinnati outrighting him from the 40-man around the All-Star Break. Karcher qualified for minor league free agency at season’s end.
Castellanos is a depth starter who logged 100 2/3 MLB innings with the Astros and D-Backs between 2020-22. A soft-tossing control specialist, he owns a 5.45 ERA with a modest 16.6% strikeout rate. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2022. Arizona ran him through waivers last offseason and he missed this year rehabbing. If he’s healthy next spring, he could head to Triple-A Reno as rotation or long relief insurance.
Padres Re-Sign Jose Espada To Minor League Contract
The Padres have brought back righty Jose Espada on a minor league deal, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. San Diego had non-tendered him a few weeks ago.
Espada, 27 in February, made his major league debut in the season’s final week. The Padres added him to the 40-man roster at the end of September. He pitched once, throwing a scoreless inning to punctuate a victory over the Cardinals. He struck out a pair while issuing two walks.
While he has only received that cup of coffee at the highest level, Espada has been in the professional ranks since 2015. He spent time in the Red Sox and Blue Jays organizations before joining the Padres out of independent ball in 2022. The Puerto Rico native had his strongest season this year. Working in a multi-inning capacity, he combined for a 2.81 ERA in 83 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A. Espada fanned an excellent 32.3% of opponents in the minors, although he paired that with a notable 12.5% walk rate.
Espada will look to build off that generally strong performance as he seeks another spot on the 40-man roster. He has a full slate of minor league options, so the Friars could move him between San Diego and Triple-A El Paso if they reselect his contract at any point.
Braves, Tommy Doyle Agree To Minor League Deal
The Braves have added reliever Tommy Doyle on a minor league contract, according to the transaction tracker at MLB.com. It seems likely he’ll get an invitation to MLB Spring Training.
Doyle spent a little over a week on the free agent market. The right-hander was designated for assignment as the corresponding move when the Rockies acquired Cal Quantrill from the Guardians. Colorado non-tendered him directly from DFA limbo, meaning Doyle never landed on waivers (as is otherwise the case for players who are DFA and not traded).
That sent him to free agency for the first time. A third-round pick of Colorado in 2017, Doyle made a very brief MLB debut at the end of the shortened season. The Rox outrighted him from the 40-man roster a year later but reselected his contract this past July.
The Virginia product logged his most extensive major league action out of the Rox’s bullpen in the second half. He appeared in 15 games, working 23 2/3 innings. Doyle struggled to a 6.85 ERA with a subpar 17.5% strikeout percentage and a hefty 12.6% walk rate. Things were much better in Triple-A, where he turned in a 3.41 ERA over 37 innings despite working in a brutal home environment for pitchers in Albuquerque. Doyle punched out a solid 26.6% of batters faced at the top minor league level, albeit with a still concerning 11.7% walk rate.
There aren’t likely to be many season-opening opportunities in the Atlanta bullpen. The Braves have spots committed to Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson, Reynaldo López, Tyler Matzek and Aaron Bummer. Even if López works out of the starting rotation, as the organization has suggested is possible, there’d only be around two vacancies available if everyone is healthy. Dylan Lee or Daysbel Hernández could have first crack at those jobs. Doyle figures to open the year at Triple-A Gwinnett as a depth option.
Reds Notes: McLain, Marte, Ashcraft, Lodolo
An excellent rookie season for Reds infielder Matt McLain was brought to a sour end by an oblique strain. He didn’t play after August 27, missing the final month as the Reds came up a little shy of the postseason.
That injury is now behind him. McLain told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that he is working out and swinging without issue. The 24-year-old said he’s preparing for a defensive role at either middle infield position.
McLain split his rookie year between those spots. He saw a little more action on the left side, playing 465 innings at shortstop and 296 at second base. As things stand, McLain projects as Cincinnati’s starting shortstop. Arguably the most impressive of the Reds’ strong rookie class, he cemented himself as an everyday player with a .290/.357/.507 slash through his first 89 MLB contests.
Whether McLain sticks at shortstop likely depends on how Cincinnati proceeds with Jonathan India. The latter’s name has again come up in trade rumors since the offseason got underway. President of baseball operations Nick Krall pushed back somewhat on that possibility, categorizing any openness to dealing India more as general diligence than an indication they’re trying to subtract from an infield surplus.
Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer are all options for the left side of the infield. De La Cruz and Marte can handle either shortstop or third base. Encarnacion-Strand might be better suited at first base; Steer has third base experience but could play a bat-first utility role between the corners and designated hitter. It’s a strong collection of talent that allows the front office to consider swapping an infielder for pitching help even after the free agent additions of Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagán.
Marte hit a minor snag while playing in the Dominican Republic. Krall told reporters the 22-year-old strained a hamstring and will be shut down from finishing the winter ball season (relayed by Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). The issue isn’t expected to affect his readiness for Spring Training. Marte hit well following a late-season MLB debut, putting together a .316/.366/.456 showing in his first 35 big league games.
In additional injury updates, Krall said pitchers Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft should be full-go for Spring Training (Goldsmith link). The former’s season was wrecked by recurring stress reactions in his left tibia. He didn’t pitch in the majors after May 6. Ashcraft sustained a stress reaction in the big toe on his right foot. He underwent season-ending surgery in the middle of September.
Dodgers Have Interest In Lucas Giolito
The Dodgers are in need of multiple starting pitchers. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that L.A. has shown interest in free agent right-hander Lucas Giolito as part of that search.
It’s the first known link for Giolito, who is one of the more difficult evaluations in the class. It wasn’t that long ago that the longtime White Sox hurler looked on his way to a nine-figure deal. Giolito sported a 3.79 ERA with a strong 25.8% strikeout rate over 21 starts at the time of the trade deadline. He had turned 29 in July, making him one of the younger starters in the class. A midseason trade to the Angels rendered him ineligible for the qualifying offer, removing draft pick compensation as a factor.
His market has since been muddled by a dismal final couple months. Giolito was rocked for a 6.89 ERA in six starts as an Angel. The Halos plummeted from playoff contention and put him on waivers. The Guardians claimed him and gave him the ball six more times to close the year. Giolito had an even tougher run in Cleveland, posting a 7.04 ERA. In his final 12 appearances of the season, he was tagged for a 6.96 ERA and surrendered a staggering 21 home runs in 63 1/3 innings (just under three homers per nine).
Giolito concluded the year with a 4.88 ERA overall. That marked his second straight season allowing nearly five earned runs per nine innings. It’s a notable drop from the mid-3.00s marks he posted each year between 2019-21, although that’s mostly a reflection of the season’s last two months.
To his credit, the former All-Star took all 33 turns through the rotation. It marked his third straight season surpassing 30 starts and continued an exceptional run of durability over the last six years. Giolito is tied for fifth in starts and ranks eighth in innings pitched since the 2018 season. He isn’t missing bats as he had at his 2019-20 peak, but he has fanned more than a quarter of opponents over the last two years.
Giolito certainly won’t continue allowing home runs at the clip he had in Anaheim and Cleveland. Teams can anticipate some amount of positive regression in that regard, but it’s still hard to draw up a much worse finish to a pitcher’s platform year short of injury.
That leaves him in an interesting spot as a free agent. If he simply wanted to maximize his earning potential, he could still look for three or four years. Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker secured four years with an average salary in the $17-18MM range last winter despite some inconsistency in their career track records. Yet Giolito is also young enough to potentially prioritize a chance to get back to free agency within a season or two. MLBTR predicted he’d go the latter route, estimating a two-year, $44MM contract that allows him to opt out after the first season.
A shorter-term pact of that nature could be particularly appealing to the Dodgers. They have shied away from long-term investments in free agent starters. A pitcher-friendly home park could mitigate some of the homer concerns, while Giolito’s track record of absorbing innings would be welcome for a young staff. It’d be similarly easy to see the appeal from the player’s perspective. The Dodgers have a strong reputation for developing pitching. That Giolito is an L.A. native who attended Harvard-Westlake is an added bonus.
While there’s a sensible fit, Giolito may need to wait until some of the top starters come off the board. Harris notes that the Dodgers are essentially in a holding pattern as they await clarity on their chances of adding Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Los Angeles has an estimated $70MM available before even reaching the first luxury tax threshold, so they’ll surely add multiple players, but they’ll presumably have various offseason plans contingent on whether they land either of their top two targets.
Reds Sign Nick Martinez
Dec. 1: The Reds have formally announced their deal with Martinez. Interestingly, GM Nick Krall tells Reds beat writers that Martinez will come to camp and compete for a job in the rotation — obviously implying that Martinez has not been assured of starting job just yet (link via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). Martinez will make $14MM next season and will have a $12MM salary in 2025 if he doesn’t opt out, MLBTR has learned.
Nov. 30: The Reds are in agreement with Nick Martinez on a two-year, $26MM guarantee, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). The deal allows the right-hander to opt out after the first season. Yusseff Diaz of Pelota Cubana first reported that Martinez, a client of the Boras Corporation, was signing with Cincinnati.
Martinez, 33, has spent the past two seasons in San Diego. After a three-year run at Japan’s highest level, he signed with the Padres during the 2021-22 offseason. Technically a four-year guarantee, the deal afforded Martinez an opt-out chance after each year. He turned in a 3.47 ERA over 106 1/3 innings in a swing role during the first season and elected to retest free agency.
He parlayed that free agent trip into a new three-year pact with the Friars. Martinez locked in a $10MM salary for this past season, while each side had a two-year option covering the 2024-25 campaigns. He posted a remarkably similar year to his debut campaign as a Padre.
As was the case in 2022, Martinez went into this past season battling for a rotation spot. He took four turns through the rotation while Joe Musgrove was on the injured list in early April. Once Musgrove returned, Martinez moved back into the relief role he had occupied for the majority of the previous season.
He would ultimately appear in 63 contests, starting nine of them. Martinez worked 110 1/3 innings, allowing 3.43 earned runs per nine. He struck out 23% of batters faced behind a solid 12.6% swinging strike percentage. Martinez demonstrated average control and kept the ball on the ground on nearly 54% of batted balls allowed. He excelled at staying off barrels, with opponents making hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) less than 30% of the time. That contact suppression ranked within the top five percent of qualified pitchers, according to Statcast.
Over his two seasons in San Diego, he combined for a 3.45 ERA with a 22.1% strikeout rate across 216 1/3 frames. At year’s end, both he and the Friars turned down their respective option provisions. San Diego declined to retain him at $16MM annually for the next two seasons, while the player passed on successive $8MM salaries. He ultimately lands between those two price points, securing a $13MM average annual value. The guarantee is in line with MLBTR’s prediction of two years and $25MM. The opt-out affords him the flexibility to again get back to free agency a year from now if he turns in a strong season in Cincinnati.
Whether he decides to retest free agency likely depends on how well he holds up over a full season as a starter. The Friars never quite entrusted him with an extended rotation run. Martinez has started only 19 of his 110 appearances since his return to MLB. There hasn’t been a material difference in his run prevention in either role. Martinez owns a 3.48 ERA in 91 relief outings over the past two seasons; he has allowed 3.41 earned runs per nine as a starter.
As one might expect, he has had better underlying marks when working in shorter stints. Martinez’s strikeout rate is a couple points higher out of the bullpen (23% against 20.9%). He has been much better at avoiding free passes as a reliever, walking 7.1% of batters faced in that role compared to an 11.2% rate from the rotation.
Regardless of the slightly worse peripherals, it’s not outlandish to project Martinez as a viable starting pitcher. He has a far deeper repertoire than the typical reliever, turning to five pitches (sinker, changeup, curveball, cutter, four-seam fastball) with regularity. Martinez was effective this year in the few opportunities he received to turn an opposing lineup over a second or third time. He has held his own in unfavorable platoon situations, keeping left-handed batters to a reasonable .242/.322/.408 line since the start of 2022.
Martinez should get a look in Cincinnati’s Opening Day starting five. The Reds had one of the sport’s least effective rotations, finishing 28th in MLB (ahead of only the A’s and Rockies) with a 5.43 ERA. The rotation’s ineffectiveness was the single biggest reason for the team coming up a little shy of the postseason. Addressing the group was a clear priority for GM Nick Krall and his staff heading into the offseason.
Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott headline the in-house options. Nick Lodolo’s 2023 campaign was wrecked by left leg injuries, but he’ll surely have a rotation spot so long as he’s healthy. Graham Ashcraft projects as the #5 starter after overcoming a disastrous first half to turn in a 2.81 ERA from the All-Star Break onward. Brandon Williamson, who pitched to a 4.46 ERA over 117 innings as a rookie, would be the top depth option. Prospects Connor Phillips and Lyon Richardson each made brief big league appearances late in the year.
It’s not a group without talent, but no team can count on its top five or six starters staying healthy for an entire season. Greene and Lodolo have each missed extended chunks of action over the past two years. Abbott and Williamson have yet to play a full season at the MLB level. Martinez doesn’t have an extended track record of starting. The front office could still look for another arm to solidify the group. They’ve been linked to each of Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber on the trade front. Signing Martinez doesn’t necessarily take them out of that market.
Paired with Wednesday afternoon’s signing of reliever Emilio Pagán to a two-year, $16MM deal, this is the most active that Cincinnati has been in free agency for the past few seasons. As reflected on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the Reds hadn’t signed a free agent to a multi-year contract since adding Nick Castellanos on a four-year pact in January 2020. Where ownership sets the spending limit remains to be seen, but there should still be some financial flexibility.
Roster Resource projected the Reds’ 2024 payroll commitments in the $58MM range before the Martinez deal. If the money is evenly distributed — the contract’s specific financial breakdown remains unreported — it’d bring them around $71MM. The club opened the 2023 season with a player payroll approaching $83MM and was well above $100MM in the two preceding seasons.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Padres Continuing Juan Soto Trade Talks
Chatter about a potential Juan Soto trade has gained steam within the past few days. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Tuesday the Padres were “almost certain” to deal the star outfielder this offseason. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Friars are engaging other clubs in discussions about the winter’s top trade candidate.
While there’s no indication one team has moved ahead as any sort of favorite, it seems increasingly likely the Padres will pull the trigger on a deal — perhaps as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings. San Diego’s biggest motivation would be to subtract Soto’s arbitration salary, projected at $33MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, from their books. Making a trade relatively early in the offseason would afford the front office more clarity as they subsequently look to deepen the roster in other areas.
The Yankees have made no secret of their desire to add a left-handed hitting outfielder. None would be as impactful as Soto, who could slot into left field to form an otherworldly corner outfield tandem with Aaron Judge. On Wednesday, SNY’s Andy Martino wrote that while San Diego and the Yankees continued ongoing dialogue, talks were still in their early stages and no deal was close.
[Related: The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade]
If the Padres accelerate discussions on Soto with the Yankees or another team, it seems controllable starting pitching would be a focal point of the return. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote on Wednesday that San Diego was looking for upper-level rotation help in Soto talks. Both Passan and Dennis Lin of the Athletic expressed a similar sentiment.
That’s no surprise. Rotation depth is the biggest question facing president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office. Each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez hit free agency. (Martinez has already come off the board by agreeing to a two-year deal with the Reds.) Beyond Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, the Padres have some combination of Pedro Avila, Jay Groome, Matt Waldron, Glenn Otto and Jairo Iriarte as rotation options. That’s nowhere near sufficient for a team that hopes to compete, meaning the Padres need to bring in at least two (ideally three) starters.
That’d be difficult to accomplish via free agency. Lin wrote yesterday that the team was currently operating with around $10-20MM in payroll space. That probably wouldn’t be enough to add more than one notable starter. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the cost of back-end starting pitching has landed in the low eight-figure range early in the offseason. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signed with St. Louis for $11MM and $13MM, respectively. Martinez secured a $13MM average annual value on his contract with Cincinnati. Rebound candidate Luis Severino received a $13MM guarantee from the Mets.
Adding someone of that nature could require all of the financial resources presently at the front office’s disposal. The Padres need multiple starters and are likely to look for some kind of relief help after seeing Josh Hader hit free agency and flipping Scott Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. They need a backup catcher behind Luis Campusano and could stand to bring in position player depth off the bench.
Accomplishing all that won’t be possible without clearing payroll. They have smaller alternatives outside of a Soto trade. Center fielder Trent Grisham, with a projected $4.9MM arbitration salary, could move. There’d be plenty of interest in second baseman Ha-Seong Kim, who is due $10MM (including a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option) in his final season before free agency. They’d have a harder time offloading the likes of Jake Cronenworth or Robert Suarez and almost certainly won’t be able to trade Xander Bogaerts, whose $280MM free agent deal seemed well above market value.
Soto projects as the highest-paid player on next year’s roster. Trading him would clear the most short-term spending room of any move the Padres could make. They’d bring back some amount of MLB-ready help in that deal, although they’d clearly recoup far less than they surrendered to acquire Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. With only one season of club control and a hefty projected salary that’ll rule out a lot of organizations, the trade value is less than one might expect for an MVP-caliber player.
The closest analogue is the 2020 Mookie Betts trade. The Red Sox received Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong while offloading around $48MM on the underwater David Price contract. Verdugo, the headliner, was a 24-year-old outfielder with five seasons of club control who had hit .294/.342/.475 the year before. (By measure of wRC+, that was 12 percentage points better than league average in the “juiced ball” 2019 season.) Downs ranked 86th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects at the time. Wong was a mid-tier talent in the Dodgers farm system.
San Diego should top that return if they’re not attaching another contract. Yet it’s possible they don’t return anyone as valuable as the top three talents (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams and James Wood) whom they sent to the Nationals to acquire Soto.
Each of Kuty and Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly indicate the Yankees are unlikely to include Jasson Dominguez or Anthony Volpe in a Soto package. Kuty adds that New York is also reluctant to relinquish pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, while Heyman indicates they prefer to retain Michael King. Both Kuty and Heyman float right-hander Clarke Schmidt as a possible piece of the return. Schmidt, who is projected for a $2.6MM salary and eligible for arbitration for four seasons, would likely be more of a secondary piece after turning in a 4.64 ERA with decent strikeout and walk numbers over 159 innings.
Of course, the Padres will consider offers from teams outside the Bronx. The Cubs have shown interest; Passan floats the Giants and Phillies as possibilities, although a deal with San Francisco would be made challenging by the intra-divisional aspect. They’ll likely be limited to high-payroll clubs with a legitimate chance to compete in 2024. As a one-year rental, Soto isn’t a fit for teams that aren’t firmly in “win-now” mode.
Martino reported yesterday that the Mets were likely to remain on the sidelines as they align their contention window more firmly towards ’25. Passan indicates the Red Sox have a similar reluctance to surrender much future value for a rental. He adds that the Mariners — a strong fit from a roster perspective — may be deterred by Soto’s projected salary.
As for San Diego, trading Soto would open the ability to make a run at some players in the middle tiers of free agency. Passan reports that the Friars could pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and/or NPB reliever Yuki Matsui if they made a move on Soto. Lee, whom MLBTR predicts for a five-year, $50MM pact, could step into the outfield spot vacated by Soto’s departure. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM contract on Matsui — a left-hander who worked to a 1.57 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate in 57 1/3 innings during his final season in Japan.
Chris Young Discusses Rangers’ Spending Outlook
The Rangers have made plenty of headlines in each of the past two offseasons. After signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray during the 2021-22 winter, they added Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney a year ago.
It doesn’t appear Texas is planning to be so aggressive this time around. A few weeks removed from the franchise’s first World Series, general manager Chris Young hinted at a quieter offseason than the previous two.
“We expect to be active in free agency, but probably not spending at the level that we have spent in previous offseasons,” Young told reporters on Thursday afternoon (relayed by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). The GM noted there’s “a great returning core group” and said the front office is “really looking for additions to kind of shore up the team.”
That’s a generally fair assessment of the roster. Texas is returning the vast majority of an elite batting order. Seager, Semien, Adolis García, Jonah Heim, Josh Jung, Nathaniel Lowe, Leody Taveras and Evan Carter will be back. Designated hitter/backup catcher Mitch Garver hit free agency after the Rangers opted against issuing a qualifying offer. He’s the biggest potential departure on the offensive side. Robbie Grossman and Travis Jankowski also hit the market after solid performances as depth outfielders.
Texas faces a few more impactful losses on the pitching side. Deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery is one of the top free agent starters. Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith and Chris Stratton could depart the relief corps, while Martín Pérez played a swing role.
Garver and Montgomery are the most notable losses. Texas doesn’t has a perfect in-house replacement at designated hitter, although the likes of Ezequiel Durán and prospect Justin Foscue could take on larger roles. Wyatt Langford, selected out of Florida with the fourth overall pick last summer, briefly reached Triple-A at the end of his draft year. It’d be a surprise if he’s in the majors on Opening Day. He could hit his way to the big leagues at some point during the summer.
Of course, the headline-grabbing play at designated hitter would be a massive strike for Shohei Ohtani. Texas is reportedly in the mix for the defending AL MVP. Signing Ohtani would quite likely require the largest contract in MLB history. Young’s comments downplay that as a possibility, although perhaps ownership and the front office would pivot if there’s a realistic chance to land the sport’s best player.
Texas has also expressed interest in retaining Montgomery. That’d be a bit of a luxury strike. Effective as the southpaw was down the stretch, the Rangers could open next season with Max Scherzer, Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney and Dane Dunning as a strong rotation. deGrom could join the group in the second half as he rehabs from June’s Tommy John procedure.
Young made clear the Rangers aren’t planning to sit out free agency entirely. Yet adding a depth starter rather than meeting a nine-figure price for Montgomery could be more likely. Texas figures to bring in multiple relievers and will probably add to what presently projects as an inexperienced bench.
While the strength of the existing roster is one factor in projecting a relatively quiet offseason, it also seems the front office is working with more limited spending room than they’ve had in previous winters. Roster Resource projects the Rangers’ 2024 payroll around $203MM. That includes projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players but does not account for any additions they’ll make. That’s already above the approximate $196MM payroll which the team carried into this past season, which was itself a franchise high.
To be clear, Young didn’t forecast any kind of payroll cut. It seems all but assured they’ll go into 2024 at a franchise-record spending level. The championship run brought in extra revenue in the form of playoff gate receipts. Ownership and the front office are surely motivated to push for a repeat. The midseason acquisition of Scherzer (whom Texas will pay $12.5MM next season as part of the trade from the Mets) paired with arbitration raises for the likes of Lowe, García and Dunning organically raise the payroll in comparison to this year’s Opening Day mark.
The Rangers are also one of the teams facing short-term uncertainty about their local television rights. The organization’s deal with Diamond Sports Group for in-market broadcasting on the Bally Sports network is in jeopardy. The Athletic recently reported that Diamond was considering dropping its deals with the Rangers and Guardians before next season amidst its ongoing bankruptcy. Young pointed to the uncertainty about the rights fees, noting that the front office has “a responsibility to be financially prudent.”
That all hints at a less flashy offseason than Texas has had in the last two years. Grant suggests the team could try to stay below the luxury tax threshold during the offseason. While there’s not a clear mandate to avoid paying the tax, it seems ownership prefers to leave some flexibility for midseason acquisitions. A team’s CBT number isn’t finalized until the end of the year, so in-season pickups count against that figure.
Roster Resource pegs the Rangers’ 2024 tax projection (which is calculated using contracts’ average annual salaries and includes player benefits) around $219MM. That checks in $18MM below next year’s $237MM base threshold. If the organization truly prefers to stay under that during the winter, they’d be limited to complementary additions. Back-end starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson have signed for $11MM and $13MM, respectively, for reference.
The Rangers exceeded the tax threshold in 2023. If they surpass it next season, they’d be taxed at a heightened 30% rate as repeat payors on any spending between $237MM and $257MM (with heightened penalties if they surpass the $257MM mark).
Orioles Have Shown Interest In Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks
At the GM Meetings earlier this month, Baltimore general manager Mike Elias told reporters the team was seeking a late-game reliever. They’re considering plugging that vacancy in free agency.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the O’s have been in contact with each of Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman. All four hurlers fit the general profile of a late-inning arm, although they’re clearly in different tiers of free agency.
Hader is the best reliever in the class (and arguably the top bullpen arm in the majors). He worked to a 1.28 ERA over 56 1/3 innings during his platform season. The lanky southpaw punched out 36.8% of batters faced. That’s actually Hader’s lowest strikeout percentage since his rookie year, yet it still ranked fifth in MLB among relievers with 50+ innings. Only Chris Martin and Brusdar Graterol had a lower earned run average.
After frequently working multiple innings earlier in his career, Hader has expressed a preference for a traditional one-inning role over the past couple years. The Padres deployed him as a closer. He picked up 33 saves in 38 attempts.
The year marked an emphatic bounce back from a 2022 season in which he’d posted an uncharacteristic 5.22 ERA. Hader has posted an ERA under 1.30 in two of the last three years and has five sub-3.00 showings over his seven MLB seasons. While he’s a year older than Edwin Díaz was last offseason, Hader figures to take aim at topping Diaz’s $102MM guarantee with the Mets — the largest relief contract in MLB history.
Committing a nine-figure deal would be far bolder than any free agent decision that the Elias front office has made. The O’s have remarkably yet to sign a single multi-year free agent deal in his five years as GM. Much of that came during a rebuild, of course, but the O’s remained cautious even as they’d begun to turn a corner last winter. Baltimore signed a trio of veterans (Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier and Mychal Givens) for a combined $23MM on one-year guarantees.
After a breakout season that saw the O’s win 101 games to take the top seed in the American League, the front office should be more aggressive than ever. Bringing in Hader would represent a very significant shift in operating procedure. In addition to the huge financial commitment, Baltimore would have to relinquish their third-highest pick in next summer’s draft. Hader declined a qualifying offer from the Padres, so he’s attached to signing compensation.
If the O’s are willing to meet those costs, Hader is a sensible target. He’s one of the few relievers who can approach the kind of production the O’s lost when Félix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery that’ll cost him the entire 2024 season. Hader is also a Maryland native who began his professional career as a 19th-round pick by the Orioles in 2012. While that selection was made by a previous front office, Elias was a high-ranking scouting official with the Astros when Houston acquired Hader as a prospect at the 2013 deadline.
Hader is in his own tier as a free agent relief target. Hicks finds himself in the next group, arguably the #2 option on the open market. One of the hardest throwers in the sport, he averages around 100 MPH on his sinker. Hicks has wobbly control but consistently runs huge ground-ball numbers. He’s coming off arguably the best season of his career, turning in 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball between the Cardinals and Blue Jays. The righty struck out a solid 28.4% of batters faced, the highest rate of his career.
Injuries (most notably a June ’19 Tommy John procedure) dogged Hicks between 2019-21. He has mostly stayed healthy over the past two seasons, topping 60 frames in each. He’s also the youngest free agent reliever of note, having turned 27 in September. Hicks should secure at least three years and has a solid case for a four-year pact at an average annual value in the $8-10MM range.
Chapman and Kimbrel would be shorter-term plays. Two of the best closers of their generation, they’re each entering their age-36 campaign. Both pitchers have battled some inconsistency in recent seasons, but they’re coming off solid 2023 performances. Chapman worked to a 3.09 ERA with an eye-popping 41.4% strikeout percentage over 58 1/3 frames between the Royals and Rangers. Kimbrel posted a 3.26 ERA while fanning a little over a third of his opponents in 69 regular season innings with Philadelphia, although he struggled over six innings in the playoffs.