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St. Louis Cardinals Job Openings

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From time to time, as a service to our readers, MLB Trade Rumors will post job opportunities of possible interest that are brought to our attention. MLBTR has no affiliation with the hiring entity, no role in the hiring process, and no financial interest in the posting of this opportunity.

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Hall Of Fame Announces 2024 Era Committee Candidates

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This afternoon, the Baseball Hall of Fame announced its eight nominees for the 2024 Era Committee. Previously known as the Veterans Committee, the Era Committee is a 16-person panel that considers nominees outside the purview of induction for players via the Baseball Writers Association of America.

The 2024 class concerns managers, executives and umpires whose primary contributions to the game have come since 1980. Last year’s committee focused on players within that same timeframe and elected Fred McGriff. Next winter’s nominees will be individuals who most impacted the sport before 1980.

Here are the candidates this winter:

  • Cito Gaston (manager)
  • Davey Johnson (manager)
  • Jim Leyland (manager)
  • Ed Montague (umpire)
  • Hank Peters (executive)
  • Lou Piniella (manager)
  • Joe West (umpire)
  • Bill White (executive)

The managers are likely most familiar to recent fans. Gaston led the Blue Jays for 13 seasons over two stints. His first stretch at the helm, spanning 1989-97, was very successful. Gaston first took over in May ’89 when the club dismissed Jimy Williams after a 12-24 start. They finished with a 77-49 record under Gaston’s watch, claiming the AL East title. That kicked off a stretch of four division wins in a five-year span. While they were bounced in the ALCS in 1989 and ’91, the Jays won back-to-back World Series in 1992 and ’93.

Johnson managed almost 2500 games in 17 seasons between 1984-2013. He began with the Mets, leading them to 108 wins and their dramatic World Series victory over the Red Sox by his third season. While that was the only title of his managerial career, Johnson led the Mets to six straight winning campaigns. He led the Reds (1993-95), Orioles (1996-97) and Dodgers (1999-2000) during the following decade. Johnson concluded his career with three seasons at the helm of the Nationals from 2011-13. He led at least one playoff team in four of his five stops. His teams won 56.2% of their regular season contests.

Leyland had a 22-year career as a big league skipper. He managed just under 3500 games between the Pirates, Marlins, Rockies and Tigers. He led Pittsburgh to three straight division titles between 1990-92 as part of an 11-year run in the Steel City. During his first season managing in Florida, Leyland led a 92-win team from a Wild Card berth to a championship in just the fifth season in Marlins history. He didn’t find success during a lone season in Colorado but led the Tigers to a pennant in 2006, his first season at the helm in Detroit. Leyland managed through 2013, winning three straight division titles from 2011-13 and claiming another AL pennant in 2012. He’s 18th in career wins with 1,769 regular season victories.

Piniella is just ahead of him on that leaderboard, ranking 17th with 1,835 wins. The fiery skipper had a 23-year managerial career between the Yankees, Reds, Mariners, Devil Rays and Cubs. He led the Reds to the 1990 World Series during his first season in Cincinnati. While that was the only time that one of his teams would play in the Fall Classic, he had multiple playoff appearances in Seattle and Chicago. Piniella was at the helm for the ’01 Mariners team tied for the all-time wins record (116) and led consecutive division winners with the Cubs in 2007-08.

Peters was a high-ranking executive for the A’s, Indians and Orioles between 1965-91. He helped construct the farm system for the A’s teams that won three World Series in the 1970’s, although he was no longer with the organization when the major league team blossomed. Peters was at the helm with Baltimore for their 1979 pennant and 1983 World Series victory. He led Cleveland in the late-’80s, helping set the stage for the Indians’ run of success the following decade.

White, a former star first baseman, served as president of the National League from 1989-94. He also had a lengthy broadcasting run as part of a career that spanned five decades. As a player, he finished in third place in 1964 NL MVP balloting for the Cardinals’ World Series winner and is part of the team’s Hall of Fame.

Montague managed over 4,000 MLB games from 1974-2009. West, one of the sport’s most famous umpires, officiated a record 5,460 contests between 1976 and his retirement in February 2022.

Nominees need 12 of 16 votes to gain induction. The voting will take place during December’s Winter Meetings.

Wander Suero Elects Free Agency

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Reliever Wander Suero has elected free agency after being outrighted by the Dodgers, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. There’d been no prior indication Suero was on waivers. The move clears a spot on the 40-man roster.

Los Angeles inked Suero to a minor league contract last offseason. He’d spend the majority of the season with their Triple-A team in Oklahoma City. The 32-year-old righty pitched in 47 games for OKC, working to a 3.26 ERA through 49 2/3 innings. That was the eighth-best run prevention mark among the 127 pitchers to surpass 40 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Suero fanned just under 26% of opposing hitters in Triple-A, although he also handed out free passes at an alarming 11.2% clip. The Dodgers selected him onto the big league roster twice. He pitched eight innings of seven-run ball, punching out nine while walking five. He leaned mostly on a cutter that averaged 90.6 MPH during his abbreviated MLB look.

This was Suero’s first major league work in two years. He pitched for the Nationals from 2018-21, logging a career-high 71 1/3 innings for the 2019 World Series team. He posted slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers during his time in Washington. Suero managed a sub-4.00 ERA in two of his first three seasons before a homer spike in 2021 led to a 6.33 ERA in 42 2/3 frames.

Suero has over three years of MLB service and would have been eligible for arbitration. While his projected $900K salary wasn’t significant, he always seemed in jeopardy of losing his spot on the 40-man roster. He’s likely to sign another minor league deal this offseason.

Reds Notes: Graupe, Coaching Staff, Deadline Approach, Fraley

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The Reds are promoting Jeff Graupe from vice president of player acquisition/strategy to assistant general manager, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic (X link). He joins Sam Grossman as holders of the AGM title. Graupe receives the bump a few weeks after the promotion of Brad Meador from AGM to general manager, a move that solidified Meador as the #2 in the front office hierarchy behind president of baseball operations Nick Krall.

Graupe has been working in the organization in one role or another for the past 18 years. He’d also served as senior director of player personnel and senior director of player development before holding his VP title.

The continuity in leadership extends to the coaching staff. Krall told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (via X) that all of their coaches will return in 2024. David Bell will be back for a sixth season as manager. The 51-year-old skipper signed a midseason extension that keeps him under contract through 2026.

Krall also revisited the club’s quiet trade deadline. Asked by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer whether he feels in retrospect the front office should have done more to aid their playoff push, the front office head said he “(doesn’t) have any regrets not doing anything.” Krall added that he felt the asking price on impending free agents and/or “shorter-term assets” wasn’t prudent.

With a couple of Wild Card clubs playing in the NLCS, one can question the Reds’ deadline approach. Sitting in the top Wild Card spot at the end of July, Cincinnati only made one move, acquiring left-handed reliever Sam Moll from the A’s for right-hander Joe Boyle. It was surprising the front office didn’t add to the rotation, in particular, as Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo were injured and the team was largely reliant on an inexperienced starting staff.

Cincinnati went 23-31 after the deadline, finishing two games out of a postseason berth. Whether the team’s fortunes would have been different had the Reds been more aggressive in July obviously can’t be known. (The D-Backs succeeded despite also coming up empty in their search for rotation help, although they did add closer Paul Sewald.) Krall and his staff are hopeful the progress shown this year lays the foundation for sustained success in 2024 and beyond.

In on-field news, left fielder Jake Fraley underwent surgery last week to repair a fractured toe on his left foot, relays Sheldon. Fraley had played through the injury and told reporters in August that he was going to require an offseason procedure. He’s expected to be full-go for Spring Training. The left-handed hitter put up a .256/.339/.443 line in 380 plate appearances this past season.

Nationals Outright Blake Rutherford, Michael Chavis

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The Nationals have taken a trio of players off the 40-man roster. Infielder Michael Chavis, outfielder Blake Rutherford and reliever Hobie Harris all cleared outright waivers, according to Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (X link). Rutherford and Chavis have elected minor league free agency, as is their right as players who have been outrighted multiple times in their careers.

Chavis signed a minor league pact with the Nats last offseason. He made the Opening Day roster and ultimately in 48 games as a depth infielder. Over 96 plate appearances, the former highly-regarded Red Sox prospect hit .242/.281/.341 with a pair of home runs. He struck out at a 34.4% clip.

The 28-year-old has appeared in parts of five seasons at the highest level. He logged 129 games with the Pirates a year ago, his heaviest workload to date. Chavis is a career .238/.283/.401 hitter in a little under 1200 trips to the dish. He can play any of first, second or third base. He would have been eligible for arbitration had the Nats kept him on the roster. Now that he’s back on the open market, he could find minor league interest this winter.

Rutherford is a former Yankees first-round draftee who reached the big leagues this past season. The lefty-swinging outfielder had hit .336/.393/.571 in 74 games between Washington’s top two affiliates after singing an offseason minor league deal. The 26-year-old was selected to the majors for the first time in early August. He got into 16 games, hitting .171/.194/.171 across 36 plate appearances.

Harris is also a one-time Yankee draft choice who debuted with Washington in 2023. The 30-year-old righty pitched in 16 games, allowing 12 runs (11 earned) through 19 1/3 innings. He walked 13 while striking out nine. Harris had a 5.57 ERA while striking out 15.2% of batters faced across 32 1/3 frames at Triple-A Rochester. This is his first career outright, but he has sufficient minor league service time to become a free agent at the start of the offseason.

Washington needed to clear three 40-man spots within five days of the end of the World Series to clear space for players returning from the 60-day injured list. They’ll go into the winter with the roster at capacity.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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MLB’s best regular season team, the Braves were knocked out by the Phillies in a disappointing Division Series. They’ll bring back the majority of the roster to give things another go in 2024, although they could have a few changes outside the core.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Austin Riley, 3B: $197MM through 2032 (deal includes ’33 club option)
  • Matt Olson, 1B: $132MM through 2029
  • Spencer Strider, RHP: $74MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)
  • Sean Murphy, C: $69MM through 2028 (deal includes ’29 club option)
  • Michael Harris II, CF: $67MM through 2030 (including buyout of ’31 club option; deal includes ’32 club option)
  • Ronald Acuña Jr., RF: $61MM through 2026 (including buyout of ’27 club option; deal includes ’28 club option)
  • Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $32MM through 2025
  • Marcell Ozuna, DH: $19MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $18MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option; deal includes ’27 club option)
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C: $8MM through 2024 (deal includes ’25 club option)
  • Orlando Arcia, SS: $5MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option)
  • Tyler Matzek, LHP: $1.9MM through 2024 (deal includes ’25 club option)

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments: $130.65MM
Total future commitments: $686.65MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Chirinos, Soroka, Lopez, Allard, Heller, Hilliard, Tonkin, Velazquez, Ynoa

Free Agents

For the second straight year, a Braves team that won 100+ games was vanquished by the Phillies in a four-game Division Series. While surely a frustrating endpoint for the organization and its fanbase, they’ll have another crack with the same key group of players that comprised this year’s most dominant regular season team.

In each of the past two winters, the Braves had a marquee impending free agent. There’s no one close to the level of Freddie Freeman or Dansby Swanson this winter, though they’re now just a year away from the potential departure of star southpaw Max Fried.

The most notable potential free agents among this year’s class fall into one of two categories: veterans whose contracts contain a club option or non-closing relievers. Charlie Morton is the biggest name in the former group. The Braves hold a $20MM option on the righty, who worked to a 3.64 ERA across 30 starts.

Morton turns 40 next month and has been noncommittal about his future for a few seasons. He’s clearly comfortable in Atlanta, signing successive one-year contracts going back to 2021. Morton has been reasonably effective that entire time, combining for a 3.77 ERA while taking the ball for 94 starts.

This past season didn’t end as Morton envisioned. He carried a 3.29 ERA into the final month but allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine in September. A minor injury to the index finger on his throwing hand ended his season, although he likely could’ve made it back had the Braves gotten to the NLCS.

The down finish might make the Braves reluctant to commit a $20MM salary. Even if Atlanta balks at that asking price, it stands to reason the sides would have interest in a slightly lesser figure if Morton wants to continue playing. Perhaps negotiating a new deal in the $15MM range could be mutually agreeable.

If Morton retires or signs elsewhere, Atlanta’s rotation depth would become a real question. Spencer Strider and Fried are an elite 1-2 combination. It tails off quickly. While Bryce Elder had a solid rookie season overall, the risk of his pitch-to-contact approach was demonstrated with a 5.11 ERA in the second half. Kyle Wright underwent shoulder surgery and will miss the entire season. Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa could return from Tommy John rehabs in the season’s first half; both right-handers had struggled before going under the knife. Allan Winans and Darius Vines seem better suited for depth roles.

Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd landed season-opening rotation spots this year. Both were hit hard and quickly lost their starting jobs. Michael Soroka pitched well in Triple-A but was tagged for a 6.40 ERA in seven big league appearances. His season ended in early September due to forearm inflammation. With a projected $3MM arbitration salary and enough service time that he can no longer be optioned to the minor leagues without his consent, he may not be tendered a contract. Late-season waiver claim Yonny Chirinos and trade returnee Kolby Allard could be non-tendered as well.

Among the in-house options, 20-year-old righty AJ Smith-Shawver is the most intriguing. He struck out over 31% of minor league opponents and earned his first major league call in May. He had an unspectacular 20:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over six MLB contests. That shouldn’t stake a firm claim to a rotation spot, but the Braves had sufficient faith to carry him on their playoff roster. Atlanta is aggressive enough in promoting young players that they could give Smith-Shawver a look early in the year.

That may also be true of 2023 first-round pick Hurston Waldrep. The Florida product made it as high as Triple-A Gwinnett in his draft year. He fanned a third of opponents with a 1.53 ERA in his first eight professional starts. In many organizations, Waldrep would’ve closed out the season in the low minors. The Braves move their top talents quickly, and while both Smith-Shawver and Waldrep presently have below-average control, they have strong enough arsenals that they could get on the radar.

Even if the Braves are confident in Smith-Shawver and/or Waldrep factoring in early in the season, they’ll need to bring in starting pitching. Atlanta has shied away from free agency in recent years, preferring to make their big strikes via trade and subsequent contract extensions.

The aren’t a ton of clear rotation trade targets. There’d been speculation about the Brewers trading one of Brandon Woodruff or Corbin Burnes. With Woodruff potentially missing all of next season following shoulder surgery, he’s no longer a possibility. That might take Burnes off the table as well, since Milwaukee would take a major step back if they lose both of their top starters. The Guardians could move Shane Bieber, who’s projected for a $12.2MM salary in his final year of club control and missed most of the second half with forearm inflammation.

Teams will inquire with the White Sox about Dylan Cease, though it’s unclear if Chicago has the appetite for that kind of move. It’s a similar story with the Rays and Tyler Glasnow. Boston’s Nick Pivetta and Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill are potential targets among arbitration-eligible starters.

If the Braves can’t line up a trade, they should have room to go into free agency. They have just under $131MM committed to next year’s roster. The arbitration class should tack on around $25MM pending non-tenders. Exercising Morton’s option or negotiating a slightly lower salary could bring their expenditures to the $170-175MM range.

Atlanta carried an Opening Day payroll just above $203MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That’d leave around $25-30MM in spending room if they’re willing to repeat that level. It’s a similar story regarding the luxury tax threshold. The Braves exceeded the base threshold this year. Should they go past next year’s threshold — which begins at $237MM — they’d pay escalating penalties as a repeat payor.

Atlanta’s current CBT estimate sits somewhere in the $190-200MM range. (It’s higher than the actual payroll figure because the CBT calculation includes player benefits and is based off contracts’ average annual values.) The option price or a new deal for Morton could leave them between $20-30MM shy of the base threshold to begin the offseason. There’s nothing to suggest the $237MM CBT number represents a hard barrier for the organization, but it’ll likely be a factor in the front office’s decision-making.

A strike for Blake Snell or Yoshinobu Yamamoto isn’t the Braves’ typical operating procedure. Going into the middle tier of the market for someone like Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha should be viable. If Morton doesn’t return, that’d leave more payroll room if they wanted to make a run at Sonny Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez.

The front office figures to engage Fried’s camp in extension talks. The 2022 Cy Young runner-up is projected for a salary around $14.4MM in his final season of arbitration. He’s on track to reach free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. Fried should top the six-year, $162MM guarantee that Carlos Rodón received last winter. The contract that Snell lands this offseason could set a new standard for Fried’s camp. The Braves have been the league’s most aggressive team in signing key players to extensions. The Freeman and Swanson scenarios demonstrate they’re not keen to throw top-of-the-market money at all their players, though.

Atlanta also figures to go into free agency for relief help. Joe Jiménez and deadline pickup Pierce Johnson are both headed to free agency. Jiménez had an excellent season and could find a three-year deal. The Braves never entrusted him with high-leverage work, so they seem unlikely to match that kind of commitment. Johnson was utterly dominant after coming off from the Rockies. Retaining him on a two-year pact could be viable.

The Braves could also re-sign Jesse Chavez, who consistently provides them with quality low-leverage innings on salaries barely above the league minimum. They have a pair of option decisions on Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates. The former is likely to be bought out after his strikeout rate plummeted this past season. They could retain Yates, who still has huge strikeout stuff, for an extra $4.5MM after accounting for the option buyout. Atlanta will decline its end of a $7MM mutual option on Brad Hand.

Raisel Iglesias is under contract for another two seasons as the closer. A.J. Minter is a high-leverage lefty. Tyler Matzek should be back after undergoing Tommy John surgery during the 2022 postseason. Yates, Nick Anderson and long man Michael Tonkin could all be retained. Rookie Daysbel Hernández made the playoff roster and offers a high-strikeout, high-walk option.

Even if they can re-sign Johnson, the Braves should add one or two arms to the late innings. A nine-figure strike for Josh Hader seems unlikely, but anyone else in the class could fit. Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López are among the higher-upside arms in the free agent group. Trade possibilities include Scott Barlow and Kyle Finnegan.

The lone option decision on the position player side is a $9MM provision for Eddie Rosario. It’s a borderline price for the streaky left fielder, who had a .255/.305/.450 showing with 21 home runs in 516 plate appearances this year. While his overall production was average, Rosario’s in-season performance was extremely volatile. He was one of the best hitters on the planet in June, excellent in August, and well below-average in every other month.

If the Braves move on, Tommy Pham, Michael Conforto (if he opts out of his deal with the Giants) and Mark Canha (pending a club option with Milwaukee) could be free agent targets. Alex Verdugo and Ramón Laureano could be on the trade market.

Aside from the Rosario decision, the starting lineup is in place. Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr. will hold the other outfield spots. Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley are locked in around the infield. Marcell Ozuna mashed from May onwards and silenced early-season speculation about his future at designated hitter. Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud make for an excellent catching tandem, Murphy’s late-season offensive swoon notwithstanding.

No one would’ve pegged the Braves as a suitor for Murphy going into last winter, so a trade to add to the lineup can’t be entirely ruled out. Acquiring a notable starting pitcher feels more likely given the offense’s strength, however. Should they try to bring in a starter with multiple seasons of club control — thereby providing some cover if Fried walks next offseason — they could dangle middle infielder Vaughn Grissom.

Arcia’s emergence at shortstop kept Grissom mostly in Triple-A this year (although he did make the playoff roster and was improbably called off the bench to take their final at-bat against Matt Strahm). He had an excellent year in Gwinnett, hitting .330/.419/.501 with a 12% walk rate while striking out just 14.1% of the time. The biggest question is where he best fits defensively.

There’s no room for him on the Atlanta infield. The Braves could get Grissom some outfield work as a possible Rosario replacement. If another team feels the 22-year-old (23 in January) projects as a big league ready shortstop or second baseman, he might be more valuable to the Braves as a trade chip. The Mariners (Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo) and Tigers (Reese Olson, Sawyer Gipson-Long) have questions at one or both middle infield spots and could dangle a controllable starter who has shown promise at the major league level. That kind of young player swap is rare but can’t be ruled out, particularly with teams having very little opportunity to add middle infield talent in free agency.

As tends to be the case for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff, there’s the potential for a notable move or two. Yet the broad theme of the winter should again be continuity. Brian Snitker will be back for an eighth full season as manager. The most important players are all under contract, with everyone aside from Fried signed for multiple years. The Braves should be a top five team in 2024. Whether that results in a commensurate playoff run won’t be known until October.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Braves-centric chat on 10-18-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins finally snapped their ignominious playoff drought, breaking an 18-game postseason losing streak by sweeping the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series. After being eliminated by the defending champions in the second round, they turn their attention to an offseason that could see some turnover among what was arguably the sport’s best rotation.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Club holds $10.5MM option on 2B Jorge Polanco ($1MM buyout); deal also includes ’25 team option
  • Club holds $10MM option on RF Max Kepler ($1MM buyout)

2024 financial commitments (assuming both options exercised): $88.025MM
Total future commitments (assuming both options exercised): $358.775MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salaries projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Farmer, Luplow, Alcalá, De León

Free Agents

After disappointing seasons in 2021-22, the Twins returned to October. Minnesota’s 87 wins were enough to handily take the AL Central in another down year. After knocking out the Blue Jays in the first round, Minnesota dropped a four-game Division Series to the Astros. Their efforts to return to the playoffs begin in a couple weeks, with the starting rotation the primary focus.

After years of maligned rotations and quick hooks for starters, Minnesota turned its rotation into an overpowering strength. Only three teams relied on their rotation for more innings. The Twins trailed only the Padres in starting pitcher ERA, while the staff narrowly topped the Rays’ for the highest strikeout rate in the majors.

The team MVP may have been Sonny Gray. The veteran righty pitched to a 2.79 ERA across 32 starts. He made his third All-Star Game and could secure a top three Cy Young finish for the second time. It was an ideal time for arguably the best season of a very good career, as the 10-year veteran is a few weeks from his first trip to free agency.

Minnesota will make Gray a qualifying offer, which he’ll certainly decline. That’d entitle them to a draft choice if he signs elsewhere. Gray has spoken positively of the organization, while president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said they’ll remain in contact throughout the offseason. While Minnesota retaining Gray can’t be entirely ruled out, the organization may be reluctant to meet an asking price that should easily top the $63MM secured by Chris Bassitt and could push towards nine figures.

Gray will be joined in free agency by two other Minnesota starters. Dallas Keuchel heads back to the market and likely won’t be retained after posting a 5.97 ERA across 10 outings. More impactful is the potential departure of Kenta Maeda. The 35-year-old has had a strong if volatile few seasons since being acquired from the Dodgers in the Mookie Betts three-team blockbuster. He was the Cy Young runner-up after twirling 11 starts of 2.70 ERA ball during the shortened season. He followed up with an ERA approaching 5.00 in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery towards year’s end. Rehabbing that injury kept him out for all of 2022.

Maeda returned to post a 4.23 ERA through 104 1/3 innings this past season. That’s inflated by a 10-run drubbing at the hands of the Yankees on April 26, which directly preceded a two-month injured list stay due to a triceps strain. From the time of his return on June 23, Maeda worked to a 3.36 ERA with an excellent 29% strikeout rate while holding opponents to a .219/.279/.401 batting line in 88 1/3 frames.

As with Gray, Maeda is eligible to receive a qualifying offer. Unlike his rotation mate, Maeda might happily take a one-year deal in the $20.5MM range if the Twins put it on the table. Whether to make him the QO is one of the biggest decisions for Falvey and his front office at the start of the offseason. A full season of Maeda’s second-half production would be well worth that price. Whether he can keep that up for another year is a matter of debate, as he’ll be 36 in April and has a checkered injury history.

The Twins are a mid-market franchise. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they ran a payroll in the $154MM range this year — the #17 figure in the majors. Pending a pair of obvious option decisions (more on those in a bit), they’ll begin the offseason with roughly $88MM in guaranteed contracts for 2024. The arbitration class is projected to tack on around $17MM, although a non-tender of infielder Kyle Farmer would subtract nearly $7MM from that sum.

That should afford the front office some freedom for a lofty one-year salary if they feel Maeda is capable of another strong year. Falvey noted last week that the collapse of Diamond Sports Group — the parent corporation of the Bally Sports TV networks that had carried Twins’ in-market broadcasts — adds some uncertainty to the offseason budget. There’s nothing to suggest the organization is about to dramatically slash payroll, however, and the club did get a boost in the form of four home playoff games this fall.

Whether Gray or Maeda return, three-fifths of the rotation is settled. Pablo López had another excellent year in his first season after being acquired in the Luis Arraez trade. Joe Ryan has a secure hold on a rotation spot despite a rough second half. Righty Bailey Ober had a very strong year to solidify himself as a mid-rotation arm.

Chris Paddack figures to hold the fourth spot. Acquired in the Taylor Rogers trade just before Opening Day 2022, Paddack made five starts before undergoing the second Tommy John procedure of his career. He was out into September, returning for five relief appearances between the regular season’s final week and the playoffs. Minnesota signed him through 2025 last spring, buying out his first would-be free agent year while giving the righty some stability halfway through his rehab.

The top option beyond that group seems to be right-hander Louie Varland. The 25-year-old (26 in December) has been more effective out of the bullpen than the rotation in his brief MLB career. He had a strong season in the rotation for Triple-A St. Paul, posting a 3.97 ERA while striking out a quarter of opponents in 81 2/3 innings. Varland could get a crack at a back-end job out of camp or begin the season in the major league relief corps with the potential to move to the rotation if necessary.

If each of Gray and Maeda walk, Minnesota could go into the middle tiers of free agency for a veteran starter. Players like Michael Lorenzen, Sean Manaea (if he opts out of his deal with the Giants) and old friend Kyle Gibson are among the options. Signing a veteran to eat some innings could keep the likes of Varland, Brent Headrick and Simeon Woods Richardson in relief and/or increase the possibility of trading from that group for bullpen or position player depth.

Minnesota’s strong rotation performance is made all the more impressive by the absence of Tyler Mahle. The Twins received just five starts this year from the right-hander, one of their top deadline acquisitions in 2022. That trade turned out to be a major misstep, as both Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand look like long-term infielders for the Reds. Mahle battled shoulder issues in 2022 and suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery this May.

That takes him out of consideration for the qualifying offer as he nears free agency for the first time. Mahle should find a two-year deal that gives him up-front security while he rehabs in the short term. A signing team would potentially welcome Mahle back late next season while getting a mid-rotation starter at a below-market price in 2025. It remains to be seen if the Twins would have interest in such an arrangement, which could check in between $15MM and $25MM total.

Minnesota’s bullpen wasn’t as good as the rotation, although it held up well enough. Flame-throwing Jhoan Durán is an elite option in the ninth. Brock Stewart went from unheralded minor league signee to high-leverage weapon. Griffin Jax had a rocky second half but solid peripherals and a decent 3.86 ERA overall. Veteran Caleb Thielbar and rookie Kody Funderburk make for a promising pair of left-handed options.

The Twins could add one more arm in the middle to late innings. Emilio Pagán rebounded from a horrible first season in Minnesota to post a 2.99 ERA while leading the relief corps with 69 1/3 innings. He is headed to free agency, so re-signing Pagán or bringing in another arm to take on that workload should be of interest.

Minnesota’s slate of impending free agents on the position player side is fairly modest. The group is headlined by Michael A. Taylor, who hit 21 home runs while playing customarily strong center field defense following an offseason trade with the Royals. While Taylor’s offensive upside is capped by a poor strikeout and walk profile, the power and glove have made him a low-end regular for the better part of a decade. He should find a multi-year deal this winter.

Taylor’s initial acquisition came as a surprise, since a good portion of Byron Buxton’s value is in his ability to play an elite center field. Buxton battled right knee issues all season and couldn’t play defense, though, spending the entire year as a designated hitter. He recently underwent arthroscopic surgery that’ll hopefully allow him to get back on the field in 2024. Given his litany of injuries generally and problems with the knee in particular, Buxton may not be an everyday option in center field at this point.

How comfortable the Twins are with the former Gold Glove winner’s health will play a big role in how they approach the outfield this offseason. Exercising a $10MM option to retain Max Kepler is an obvious call after an excellent second half. The German-born outfielder could return to a regular right field role while offering cover for Buxton in center if Taylor walks. If the Twins aren’t comfortable with Buxton or Kepler assuming regular center field work, retaining Taylor or bringing in someone like Harrison Bader makes sense.

Even if/when they let Joey Gallo depart in free agency, Minnesota will have their typical abundance of left-handed hitting outfielders. The likes of Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon (along with Kepler himself) were the subject of trade speculation both last offseason and at the deadline. Aside from Kepler, Wallner is the only one of the group who has improved his trade value over the past few months.

Kirilloff, who has moved increasingly to first base over the corner outfield, continues to battle injury issues. He spent time on the IL with a right shoulder strain. Continued pain eventually forced him off the playoff roster and will require labrum surgery next week. Kirilloff hit well when healthy — .270/.348/.445 in 88 games — so it’d be a surprise to see the Twins move him while his value is at a low ebb.

Wallner, meanwhile, has settled in nicely as a power bat who can rotate through the corner outfield and DH. That’s the role the organization had envisioned for Larnach, a former first-round draftee who hasn’t hit consistently over parts of three big league seasons. He has performed well despite elevated strikeout tallies in Triple-A and could have appeal to a non-contender that can afford to give him a full season of reps in left field. Gordon, meanwhile, looked like a quality bat-first utility option in 2022 but missed most of this past season with a broken leg.

There’s a similar depth of talent on the infield. The club holds a $10.5MM option on Jorge Polanco, another easy call to exercise. The switch-hitter put together a .255/.335/.454 showing in 80 games and has been an above-average hitter in five of the past six seasons. He can split his time between second and third base. Even if the Twins felt they had enough infield talent to make Polanco expendable, there’d be surplus value on the option. Exercising that provision and trading him is more plausible than declining the option entirely, although the likeliest outcome is simply that they keep him for 2024.

Polanco would split time with a pair of youngsters on the infield. Edouard Julien had an impressive rookie season offensively. He might be better suited for DH or first base than consistent run in the middle infield, but he’ll be in the lineup somewhere.

Former first overall pick Royce Lewis seized the third base job with a monster second half, which he carried into the playoffs. Lewis was the Twins’ best player down the stretch and looks like a potential franchise player after returning from a second ACL tear. With five seasons of club control, there’s no urgency for Minnesota to talk extension. Lewis looks like the player the Twins expected when they drafted him six years ago, so they could at least gauge his asking price on a potential early-career deal — as they signed with Polanco and Kepler back in 2019.

Carlos Correa will be back at shortstop. The first season of his $200MM deal didn’t go as planned. Correa had a below-average .230/.312/.399 showing in the worst full year of his career. The two-time All-Star played through plantar fasciitis in his left foot and seemed inhibited for most of the season. They’ll hope an offseason of rest gets him back to his typical level of production.

The combination of Lewis’ return to health and Julien’s emergence could lead the Twins to subtract an infielder. Opening Day third baseman José Miranda has plummeted down the depth chart, although it’s a suboptimal time to trade him coming off season-ending shoulder surgery. Farmer and Willi Castro are veteran utility options who are into their arbitration years.

Farmer has the loftier projected salary ($6.6MM against $3.2MM) and played less of a role down the stretch. Assuming the Twins retain Castro, non-tendering or trading Farmer for a minimal return to clear payroll room makes sense. Perhaps they could reallocate that money to Donovan Solano, who hit .282/.369/.391 in 450 plate appearances. He’s headed back to free agency and likely earned a raise over this past season’s $2MM salary. Headed into his age-36 season, he’s likely still looking at one-year offers — whether from the Twins or elsewhere.

There’s little suspense behind the plate. Ryan Jeffers is one of the game’s better catchers. He’ll take the majority of playing time, with Christian Vázquez on hand as a quality #2 option.

Despite the potential loss of this year’s top starter, the Twins are well positioned going into 2024. They won 87 games without much of a contribution from Buxton or Correa and a little more than a third of a season out of Lewis. Even if the starting pitching takes a step back, a lineup that ranked 10th in run scoring this year could push closer to top five with better health from its stars. Whatever they do this winter, they should enter next season as the favorites to repeat in an AL Central that may again be the sport’s least talented division.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Twins-centric chat on 10-17-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Clayton Kershaw Undecided On Future

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The Dodgers season came to an unceremonious close last night. After being swept in the NL Division Series by the Diamondbacks, they’re headed into the offseason.

Each fall brings questions about whether Clayton Kershaw will be back for another year. Unsurprisingly, the three-time Cy Young winner wasn’t prepared to answer within the first couple hours of his team’s elimination. Kershaw told the L.A. beat postgame that he’s “not sure” what his playing future holds (relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

Kershaw expanded upon that in a conversation with Andy McCullough of the Athletic, saying he expected to take several weeks before making a decision. Last year, he told reporters in late September that he was leaning towards playing in 2023. He agreed to a new deal with the Dodgers by November 10. Kershaw suggested to McCullough he won’t make his decision as quickly this time around.

Part of the calculus is his arm health. The 10-time All-Star landed on the injured list with shoulder soreness on July 3. He was out for around five weeks. While the Dodgers reinstated Kershaw on August 10, team officials conceded he still didn’t feel close to 100%. The southpaw told McCullough he could go for additional examination on the shoulder this offseason.

Kershaw had another stellar regular season despite the injury. He worked to a 2.46 ERA across 131 2/3 innings, striking out a strong 26.2% of opponents. Kershaw’s 7.6% walk rate was his highest in over a decade but still slightly better than league average. While his strikeout and walk numbers took a step back following his return from the injured list, he worked to a 2.23 ERA in his last eight regular season starts.

That production belied a notable downtick in the quality of his raw arsenal. Kershaw’s average fastball speed was a little above 91 MPH through the season’s first three months. His fastball sat at 90.2 MPH in August and was down to just 88.6 MPH on average in the final month. The slider was similarly slow, dropping from the 86-87 MPH range to 84.7 MPH in September.

The diminished arsenal caught up to him in October. The Dodgers’ flimsy rotation left them with little choice but to give Kershaw the ball for one of the first two starts against Arizona. He took the Dodger Stadium mound in Game 1 and was blitzed for six runs on six hits and a walk while recording just one out in an eventual 11-2 loss. The rest of the rotation didn’t fare much better. Bobby Miller surrendered three runs and didn’t get past the second inning in Game 2; Lance Lynn was tagged for four home runs in the third inning to take a 4-2 loss last night.

Addressing the starting staff will be a key priority for the L.A. front office. Julio Urías looks very unlikely to return amidst a domestic violence investigation. Tony Gonsolin could miss the whole year after a Tommy John procedure in August. Dustin May will be out until the middle of the season following flexor surgery. Lynn seems headed for free agency once the Dodgers decline an $18MM club option.

Walker Buehler should be ready to join Miller in two spots. Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot could vie for jobs, while Gavin Stone and Michael Grove are beyond them on the depth chart. There’s still promise with the group but they’ll need to add quite a bit more stability. If Kershaw decides to return for a 17th major league season, the Dodgers would certainly welcome him back on another one-year deal.

Kershaw signed a $20MM pact last winter. A similar salary would make sense if he continues playing. While the Dodgers could technically put forth a qualifying offer in the $20.5MM range, it’s hard to see that happening. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters two offseasons ago the organization declined to qualify Kershaw to afford him more than 10 days to make a decision on his future. There’s no reason to believe that won’t be the case this fall.

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