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Latest On Phillies’ Rotation Competition

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The Phillies entered camp with much of the season-opening roster in place. The biggest storyline was the battle for the final rotation spot. The Phils have consistently maintained top pitching prospect Andrew Painter would be given a legitimate chance to claim the job even though he won’t turn 20 until next month.

Those plans were seemingly put on hold last week, as the hard-throwing young righty reported some discomfort in his elbow. The Phils sent Painter for further examination. The club has yet to provide many specifics, though Todd Zolecki of MLB.com wrote yesterday that the team has not received any indication Painter could require surgical repair. It seems the current expectation is Painter will be able to rest and rehab but that won’t be officially known until orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache has an opportunity to review the young hurler’s medicals.

Even if Painter avoids going under the knife, the issue certainly diminishes his chances of cracking the majors out of camp. That’d point towards left-hander Bailey Falter securing the final rotation spot behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez and Taijuan Walker. Falter started 16 of 20 appearances last season, pitching to a 3.86 ERA in 84 frames. The 25-year-old had an average 21.2% strikeout rate and excellent 4.9% walk percentage to support that solid run prevention. The home run ball was a bit of an issue for the fly-ball specialist, but Falter showed enough to suggest he could be a viable back-of-the-rotation option.

Falter addressed his role with reporters this week, indicating he’s not much concerned with where the club deploys him. “As long as I’m one of those 26 guys (on the active roster), I’ll do whatever they want me to do,” he said (link via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Falter has a decent amount of experience in the relief corps as well, coming out of the bullpen 21 times in 22 outings during his rookie season two years ago.

Aside from Falter and Painter, southpaw Cristopher Sánchez perhaps represents the top option for the fifth rotation spot. Zolecki notes that manager Rob Thomson has named righty Nick Nelson as another starting candidate. Nelson has only started four big league games and none of those appearances lasted more than two innings as opener work. He worked primarily in a multi-inning relief capacity last season, his first in Philadelphia. Nelson threw 68 2/3 innings over 47 outings, pitching to a 4.85 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk percentage.

Tony Gonsolin’s Availability For Opening Day In Question

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Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin suffered a left ankle sprain during a pitcher-fielding practice on Monday. The club has downplayed the injury’s longer-term severity, but manager Dave Roberts indicated this evening the right-hander wasn’t in great position for Opening Day (via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times).

On a positive note, Roberts noted that x-rays have come back negative. However, Gonsolin’s ankle is still swollen and the manager said he “doesn’t feel good” about the All-Star hurler being ready for the start of the season. Gonsolin isn’t expected to throw again for several days, and Harris notes that it’s not out of the question he could eventually go for an MRI.

Gonsolin has spent some time on the injured list in each of the past two seasons. He has battled shoulder and forearm concerns. The ankle issue is obviously less worrisome than arm issues, although it could keep him out of action early in the year. Gonsolin has never topped 24 MLB starts in a season, with last year’s 130 1/3 innings representing a career best.

The St. Mary’s product had an excellent year on a rate basis, however. He posted a 2.14 ERA, striking out an above-average 23.9% of opposing hitters while walking only 7% of opponents. Gonsolin picked up swinging strikes on a strong 12.3% of his offerings and did a solid job avoiding hard contact.

If he’s forced to start the season on the injured list, the Dodgers will have to find a short-term rotation replacement, as they’re scheduled for just one off day within the schedule’s first two weeks. Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May look to be established in the top four spots. Right-handers Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove and Andre Jackson are all on the 40-man roster. Pepiot would seem to have the upper hand among that group if L.A. needed a couple starts in Gonsolin’s stead early in the year.

Rays Have Discussed Extension With Top Prospect Curtis Mead

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The Rays and top infield prospect Curtis Mead have had some discussions regarding a possible contract extension this spring, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). There’s no indication a deal is likely or imminent, though the talks add an interesting storyline to Tampa Bay camp.

Mead, 22, has still yet to make his major league debut. Initially signed by the Phillies as an international amateur from Australia, he was dealt to Tampa Bay over the 2019-20 offseason for left-hander Cristopher Sánchez. Mead hadn’t even reached full-season ball at the time, but he’s appeared a strong find for the Rays’ scouting department. The 2020 minor league season was scrapped due to the pandemic, but Mead has mashed since returning to game action in 2021.

The right-handed hitter combined for a .321/.378/.533 line across a trio of minor league levels that season, topping out at Double-A. He split the ’22 campaign between Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham, putting together a .298/.390/.532 mark with 27 doubles and 13 home runs in only 76 games. The bulk of that work came in Double-A, with Mead only playing in 20 games at the top minor league level. That’s in large part due to an elbow injury that cost him almost all of the season’s second half, perhaps dashing his chances of reaching MLB last year.

Tampa Bay made the obvious decision to add Mead to their 40-man roster this offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He can still be optioned to the minors for three consecutive seasons and looks likely to start the 2023 campaign back in Durham. If Mead continues to hit at the level he has the past two years, however, he’d get a big league look before long.

Mead heads into this season ranked between 20th and 40th on top prospect lists from Baseball America, ESPN, The Athletic and FanGraphs. Evaluators are effusive in their praise for his bat, though there are a number of questions about his long-term defensive fit. He’s played primarily second and third base in the minors; however, there seems to be a fair amount of risk he’ll eventually have to move to left field or potentially work primarily as a designated hitter.

Regardless of Mead’s defensive outcome, the Rays are clearly enamored enough with his bat they’re open to tacking on their window of club control. Tampa Bay already controls him for at least six seasons. Sending him back to the minors early in 2023 — a reasonable enough decision considering Mead’s lack of Triple-A experience and an infield mix that already includes the likes of Jonathan Aranda, Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco, Isaac Paredes, Yandy Díaz and Vidal Bruján — would likely delay his path to free agency by an additional season. Mead does have the prospect status to potentially “earn” a full year of service time even if he’s not in the majors for 172 days as part of the prospect promotion package in the collective bargaining agreement, but he’d need a top two finish in Rookie of the Year balloting to do so.

There have been a handful of extensions for players who hadn’t yet made their big league debuts. Jon Singleton, Scott Kingery, Evan White, Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert have all signed such deals since 2014. Singleton was guaranteed $10MM, while White and Kingery each locked in $24MM. Jiménez secured $43MM. Robert holds the record for such deals with a $50MM guarantee.

Robert and Jiménez were generally viewed as higher-caliber talents at the time of their deals than Mead is now. Jiménez had ranked as Baseball America’s #3 prospect at the time of his contract; Robert was ranked the sport’s #2 minor league talent when he put pen to paper. Kingery (BA’s #31 prospect in 2018) and White (#54 in 2020) fit more into the bucket in which Mead now finds himself: excellent prospects but a bit behind the game’s truly elite minor league talents.

Neither Kingery nor White has met their clubs’ expectations thus far. Both teams would surely like a do-over on those contracts, though even the misses have had a fairly modest effect on the teams’ books. White is making $3MM this season and will secure $7MM and $8MM, respectively, over the next two years. Kingery is due $9MM this year, including a buyout on a 2024 club option.

The Rays don’t spend anywhere close to Philadelphia’s level and are even a ways back of Seattle, so a deal for Mead would be a little more risky than the White or Kingery ones were. Still, the potential payoff of locking up a high-end talent at below-market rates is enough for teams to have interest in this kind of arrangement. Tampa Bay hasn’t reached any extensions with players before their MLB debuts, but they’d made out exceptionally well on early-career pacts for Evan Longoria and Brandon Lowe before either had reached 50 big league contests.

Rockies’ Lucas Gilbreath To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Rockies reliever Lucas Gilbreath will undergo Tommy John surgery next week, he announced on TikTok (h/t to Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette). He’ll miss the entire 2023 season and likely be sidelined into the ’24 campaign as well.

It’s a disappointing but not surprising development. Thomas Harding of MLB.com reported last week that the procedure was likely after Gilbreath had undergone an MRI. Perhaps not coincidentally, Colorado signed veteran southpaw Brad Hand to what essentially amounts to a $3MM deal (assuming he’s not cut within the next three weeks) over the weekend. Hand should step in as Colorado’s top left-handed reliever, with waiver claim Brent Suter adding a potential multi-inning option from the left side.

Hand and Suter make for a decent pairing of matchup options for skipper Bud Black. Still, the club will obviously be disappointed to lose Gilbreath, who had somewhat quietly put together a nice 2022 campaign. The 27-year-old worked to a 4.19 ERA over 43 innings, striking out 26.2% of batters faced with a solid 46.7% grounder rate. Gilbreath walked nearly 14% of opponents but he stifled left-handed batters to a .186 average and meager .220 slugging mark over 74 plate appearances.

The Rox will place Gilbreath on the 60-day injured list once the need for a 40-man roster spot arises. He’ll collect a full year of service while rehabbing, bringing him up to two years and 147 days of MLB time at season’s end. He’s a virtual lock to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter, though his lack of a platform showing means he’s not likely to collect a salary much higher than the league minimum if tendered a contract. Colorado can control Gilbreath through the 2027 campaign.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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Within days of winning the World Series, the Astros parted ways with their general manager. They went with an uncertain front office for a few months but made a few early splashes. Things quieted down before Houston brought in their new GM, who has already set out to put his stamp on the organization in Spring Training.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $43MM
Total spending: $105MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Even as the Astros were barreling towards the second championship in franchise history, whispers of conflict behind the scenes began to trickle out. Rumors of a strained relationship between general manager James Click and manager Dusty Baker and, to an even greater extent, between Click and owner Jim Crane mounted towards season’s end. Even the team getting to the pinnacle of the sport couldn’t stop the situation from reaching a tipping point.

In the days after the World Series parade, Crane made one-year extension offers to Baker and Click — both of whom had been on expiring deals. The longtime manager accepted and will be back for a fourth season at the helm. Click, on the other hand, rejected an offer he and many throughout the industry considered below standard for an executive whose team had just won a championship. Crane responded by dismissing him, setting the stage for an almost unprecedented GM search on the heels of a title.

While the front office uncertainty loomed over much of the offseason, Crane consistently maintained he didn’t view it as a pressing hole to plug. The owner himself stepped further into day-to-day baseball operations with help from assistant GMs Andrew Ball and Bill Firkus and from longtime Houston first baseman Jeff Bagwell. The Astros faced some immediate roster decisions as a handful of key players were headed to the open market.

Houston struck early with one of their top free agents. During the five-day window between the end of the World Series and the official start of free agency — a time when clubs have exclusive negotiating rights with their own players — the Astros kept reliever Rafael Montero off the market on a three-year, $34.5MM deal. The righty was coming off the best season of his career, posting a 2.37 ERA with above-average strikeout and grounder numbers. He’d been a crucial piece of an excellent relief corps. Retaining Montero kept the group mostly intact, although Houston did buy out deadline pickup Will Smith and allow him to join the Rangers.

Even with Montero returning, Houston faced the potential departures of a handful of key players from last year’s club. None loomed larger than the defending Cy Young award winner. Justin Verlander had returned from a Tommy John surgery to throw 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball during his age-39 season. He has shown no signs of slowing down with age and/or injury and made the obvious decision to decline a $25MM player option for the upcoming campaign.

Houston and Verlander were in contact early in the winter. Crane even went on record to indicate Verlander was seeking a deal that approached the three years and $130MM that Max Scherzer had received from the Mets the previous offseason. Yet reports suggested Houston wasn’t prepared to go to those lengths for a pitcher who’d turn 40 before Opening Day. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle suggested the Astros were offering between $60MM and $70MM over two seasons.

The market also valued Verlander at two years but at a loftier annual price. Verlander ended up reuniting with Scherzer in Queens, matching his record $43.333MM average annual value over two seasons. The total guarantee checked in around $86.667MM, quite a bit higher than Houston’s reported offer. After four and a half seasons, Verlander moved on. The Astros never seemed to seriously consider replacing him, instead moving everyone else in a still strong rotation up a peg.

Beyond Verlander, Houston also saw Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and deadline acquisitions Christian Vázquez and Trey Mancini hit the open market. Not coincidentally, Houston was rumored to be in the market for players at first base, catcher and in left field. Initial reports suggested the Astros were targeting Anthony Rizzo to replace Gurriel. When Rizzo promptly re-signed with the Yankees, Houston pivoted to arguably the top first baseman available in free agency.

The Astros made José Abreu their biggest external addition of the winter. The 2020 AL MVP inked a three-year, $58.5MM deal in late November. There’s risk in buying the age 36 through 38 campaigns for a player who is limited to the bottom of the defensive spectrum, but Abreu should bring quite a bit more offensive punch than Gurriel provided in a down 2022 season. A career .292/.354/.506 hitter, Abreu posted a .304/.378/.446 line with 15 home runs in 157 games during his final year with the White Sox.

To address left field, Houston checked in on such players as Michael Conforto and Andrew Benintendi. Rather than splurge on either, they ultimately circled back to Brantley as their lefty-swinging left field/designated hitter option. Coming off season-ending shoulder surgery and headed into his age-36 campaign, Brantley was limited to a one-year deal. Yet he still secured $12MM on the strength of offensive production that remains excellent when he’s healthy enough to take the field. Brantley walked more than he struck out over 277 plate appearances last season, hitting .288/.370/.416 with five homers and 14 doubles.

The trio of Montero, Abreu and Brantley ended up comprising all of Houston’s major league free agent acquisitions. Their catcher pursuit came up short. Houston reportedly put forth a multi-year offer to top free agent backstop Willson Contreras but saw the longtime Cub instead join the Cardinals on a five-year, $87.5MM deal. The gap between Contreras and any other free agent catcher was massive, and Houston ultimately decided to roll with their internal options after missing out on the one catcher who could’ve added another middle-of-the-order presence. While the Astros were at least loosely tied to lower-tier veterans like Tucker Barnhart, they’re going to move forward with Martín Maldonado for another season.

Houston acquired Vázquez last summer as a veteran backup to Maldonado but allowed him to depart in free agency. With Jason Castro retiring, Houston seems set to turn to a less experienced option as Maldonado’s #2. Former first-round draftee Korey Lee is a strong defender with some power but significant strikeout concerns. Yainer Díaz had a breakout 2022 showing in the upper minors and brings the opposite profile: an advanced bat but questions about his defense. They’ll battle for the backup job and potentially for longer-term run as the organization’s catcher of the future, since the 36-year-old Maldonado will hit free agency at the end of the 2023 campaign.

The rest of the position player group is straightforward. Abreu will man first base. Jose Altuve is back at second, with Jeremy Peña having secured shortstop behind an excellent rookie season. Alex Bregman returns to solidify the hot corner. Brantley, when healthy, will split his time between left field and designated hitter. Yordan Alvarez will do the same, with the club aiming to get their star slugger a little more defensive work than he’s logged in years past. Kyle Tucker is one of the sport’s best right fielders on both sides of the ball.

To the extent there’s a position battle, it looks like it’d be in center field. Chas McCormick has consistently produced over his first two big league campaigns, though the organization has seemed reluctant to anoint him their long-term center fielder. McCormick should have a leg up on the job after playing well during the club’s postseason run. Baker has suggested this spring that Jake Meyers is still in the mix, though, and utilityman Mauricio Dubón could garner some consideration as well.

Dubón is out of minor league option years and figures to be on the MLB roster as a depth player. He and rookie David Hensley could take on some utility responsibilities after Houston lost Aledmys Díaz to free agency. The Astros also brought in infielder Rylan Bannon on a waiver claim from the Cubs. Their only trade of the offseason was the acquisition of depth corner outfielder Bligh Madris from the Tigers for cash.

Houston did even less to augment the pitching staff, showing plenty of faith in their in-house options. With Verlander gone, Framber Valdez assumes the role of staff ace. He’s followed by Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy. A healthy Lance McCullers Jr. would be in the mix but he’s not going to be ready for Opening Day after suffering a muscle strain in his right arm. That pushes top prospect Hunter Brown into the rotation. It’s still a strong top five but the depth behind that group is a little thinner than it has been in recent seasons.

There are no such concerns about a bullpen that again looks to be one of the league’s best. Montero returns to join Ryne Stanek, Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Bryan Abreu among the bridges to closer Ryan Pressly. It’s a group that skews right-handed, but that has been the case for a few seasons and the Astros have been no worse for wear. Houston added southpaw Matt Gage off release waivers from Toronto to compete with the likes of Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski in that regard. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Astros ran out all right-handed bullpens at points.

After an initial flurry of activity early in the winter, Houston was mostly quiet from December onwards. While their work with the roster faded into the background, the organization took a few months to put their new leadership structure in place. At the end of January, they finalized a deal to bring in Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown as their new general manager.

Brown is a first-time GM but has played an integral part in building the core of an Atlanta team that won the World Series two seasons ago. He hasn’t had a chance to put his stamp on the roster with any external pickups considering he was hired after the free agent and trade markets were all but finished. Yet he’s already shown one aspect that could help define the next few seasons of Astros baseball: an affinity for contract extensions.

Since taking the helm, Brown has gone on record about a desire to sign players like Tucker, Valdez, Altuve and Bregman to long-term deals. No organization has been as successful at locking up key players in recent years than the Braves, and it’s clearly a philosophy he’ll attempt to bring to Houston. He’s already hammered out one long-term deal, signing Javier to a $64MM guarantee to buy out his three arbitration seasons and two would-be free agent years. Javier secured the largest deal ever for a pitcher with between three and four years of service and didn’t need to tack on any below-market club options at the back end. It was a strong contract for the electric young righty, one that hints at the kind of aggressiveness which could define future extension talks.

It stands to reason the front office will spend the rest of Spring Training trying to get another deal(s) like that done. Even if nothing comes to fruition, the Astros remain as well-positioned for success over the coming seasons as any team in the game. Brantley, Maldonado, Stanek and Maton are the only players set to reach free agency at the end of the ’23 campaign. While those are valuable contributors, Houston isn’t at risk of losing any of their true star performers until Altuve and Bregman hit the market over the 2024-25 offseason.

The Astros have had a remarkable past few years, advancing at least as far as the American League Championship Series in six consecutive seasons. They’ve done so despite a decent amount of roster turnover, with only Altuve, Bregman and McCullers remaining from the 2017 World Series team. (Gurriel is still unsigned and could theoretically return, although Brown has implied the club doesn’t feel they have the playing time to offer him.)

Tucker, Peña, Alvarez, Valdez, Javier and Garcia will be around for at least three more seasons. Even as teams like the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers improve, the competitive window in Houston remains wide open. The Astros again look like the favorites in the AL West and will try to become the first repeat World Series winners since the late-’90s Yankees. Legitimate championship aspirations aren’t going away anytime soon.

In conjunction with the Astros’ Offseason In Review, Anthony Franco held a team-specific chat on March 9. Click here to view the transcript.

The Astros’ Inexperienced Rotation Depth

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An elite rotation has been one of the key features of the Astros’ run of success in recent years. Justin Verlander headlined the staff for the past four-plus seasons while the club saw the likes of Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy step up as player development success stories.

Even after Verlander’s departure, Houston has one of the stronger top-of-the-rotation groups in the sport. Valdez is a borderline Cy Young contender. Javier misses bats at an elite rate and just secured a $64MM contract extension. Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have each shown #2/3 starter capabilities in recent years. Urquidy isn’t as high-octane but he’s a perfectly solid back-end starter with excellent control. Just behind that group is Hunter Brown, arguably one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects who allowed only two runs in his first 20 2/3 MLB innings late last season.

It’s a group with immense upside, although the injury bug has already hit before Opening Day. McCullers won’t be ready for the start of the season thanks to a muscle strain in his throwing arm and, as of yesterday, had still not been cleared to begin playing catch (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Even if there doesn’t prove to be a long-term concern, the Astros will surely be without McCullers for a little while in the early going. That, in itself, might not be a huge issue considering Brown can step into the vacated rotation spot. Yet one more injury could start to test Houston’s depth, forcing them to tap into a group of mostly unproven hurlers from the upper minors. Let’s look through some of the depth options whom manager Dusty Baker could need to rely upon if anyone else from his top five goes down.

J.P. France

Despite turning 28 within a week of Opening Day, France has zero MLB experience. The club thought highly enough of him to add him to the 40-man roster in November to ensure they didn’t lose him in the Rule 5 draft, however. The 6’0″ righty started 15 of 34 outings with Triple-A Sugar Land last season, working to a 3.90 ERA with a strong 28.3% strikeout percentage but a concerning 10.6% walk rate in 110 2/3 innings. Baseball America slotted him as the organization’s #21 prospect this winter, praising his deceptive delivery and a five-pitch mix of mostly average stuff but raising questions about the consistency of his strike-throwing.

Forrest Whitley

Once regarded by many as the sport’s most talented pitching prospect, Whitley has seen his stock plummet since he reached Double-A as a 20-year-old five seasons back. He’s now 25 and still hasn’t gotten to the big leagues, though the Astros have kept him on the 40-man roster over the past two seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and lost a good chunk of the last couple years rehabbing. Whitley returned for ten outings in Sugar Land, serving up a 7.09 ERA while walking almost 16% of opposing hitters in 33 innings.

It’s not uncommon for pitchers to struggle with their control in their immediate returns after a Tommy John rehab, but the clock is ticking for Whitley to establish any kind of role on the Houston staff. He currently has one minor league option year remaining. While the Astros could perhaps petition for a fourth option next offseason in light of Whitley’s injury and a 2018 suspension for a violation of the minor league drug of abuse policy, it’s worth wondering whether they’d hold him on the 40-man roster for another winter if he doesn’t at least take a step forward in Triple-A. Baseball America now considers him the #28 prospect in the Houston system.

Shawn Dubin

Added to the 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason, Durbin spent all of last year on optional assignment to Sugar Land. He lost some time to a forearm strain and worked in a hybrid role when he took the mound, starting only 12 of 23 outings. Over 58 1/3 frames, he posted a 4.78 ERA with an excellent 32.1% strikeout rate but an untenable 12.9% walk rate. Barring a major step forward with his control, he’d figure to be more of a bullpen option for the big league club. BA slotted him 25th in the organizational prospect list, projecting him as a multi-inning reliever.

Brandon Bielak

Unlike the three pitchers above him on this list, Bielak has some MLB experience. He’s appeared in 45 games over the past three seasons but started just eight, none of which came last year. Soon to be 27, the 6’2″ righty has a 5.15 ERA over 94 1/3 career big league frames. He continued to work mostly as a starter in Triple-A, opening 14 of his 23 appearances last year. In 88 2/3 innings there, he put up a strong 3.15 ERA but with more middling strikeout and walk numbers (22.2% and 11.1%, respectively). Bielak has held a 40-man roster spot since the summer of 2020 and has one option year remaining.

Bryan Garcia

Signed to a minor league contract with a non-roster Spring Training invitation, Garcia had been a reliever for his entire career until the second half of last season. The Tigers stretched him out as a starter in Triple-A in the middle of July. Garcia made 11 starts for their top affiliate in Toledo and took the ball four times at the big league level. While he only allowed eight runs in 20 1/3 MLB innings, he had a pedestrian 17:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Detroit cut him loose at season’s end, sending him to minor league free agency after he went unclaimed on waivers.

Misael Tamarez/Jaime Melendez/Jayden Murray

Each of this group logged some upper minors work last season, mostly in Double-A. They’ve all garnered fairly recent consideration in the back half of the Astros’ top 30 organizational prospects but none is seen as an obvious rotation piece for 2023. Any of the trio could pitch their way into consideration at some point but they all figure to begin the year in the minors, particularly since none has yet claimed a spot on the 40-man roster.

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It isn’t a group of depth starters with much big league experience. While that might not be a pressing concern out of the gate, it’s virtually unheard of for a club to navigate a 162-game schedule reliant upon only five or six starters. Between McCullers’ injury and perhaps a desire to keep an eye on Brown’s workload — he threw 126 1/3 innings last season between Triple-A and the big leagues — it stands to reason the front office could still look into an addition or two.

Players like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy and Michael Pineda remain unsigned and look like minor league deal candidates at this stage of the offseason. Bringing in someone from that group or scouring the waiver wire for help would make sense for first-year general manager Dana Brown, who has spoken a few times about his desire to stockpile as much rotation depth as possible. The Astros have enough impact talent at the top of the staff they don’t need any splashy acquisitions but there’s plenty of room to augment the group in the upper minors with a veteran.

Yankees Notes: Kahnle, Cortes, Kiner-Falefa

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Yankees reliever Tommy Kahnle is in the midst of a 10-day shutdown after battling some biceps tendinitis. It doesn’t seem the club is overly concerned, with manager Aaron Boone saying yesterday he anticipated the right-hander would have sufficient time to prepare for Opening Day.

Kahnle chatted with reporters this evening, likening it to a similar issue he experienced back in 2018 (relayed by Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). He estimated it’d take roughly a month to completely dissipate. That doesn’t inherently mean he’ll start the year on the injured list, though with Opening Day three and a half weeks out, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he wound up requiring a brief IL stint. Signed to a two-year, $11.5MM free agent deal, Kahnle will be ticketed for high-leverage work in the Bronx once he’s healthy.

Even more integral to the club’s success is southpaw Nestor Cortes. An All-Star in 2022 during a season in which he worked to an excellent 2.44 ERA through 158 1/3 frames, Cortes has cemented himself as a key starter. On talent, he’s arguably the #3 option behind Gerrit Cole and big-ticket free agent signee Carlos Rodón. Yet the 28-year-old has been slowed a bit in recent weeks after suffering a Grade 2 hamstring strain in February.

That injury forced Cortes out of the World Baseball Classic but the Yankees have maintained optimism it wouldn’t affect his availability for the start of the season. That remains more or less the case. Boone told the media yesterday the Yankees were planing to move Cortes towards the back of the rotation to give him a few extra days to ramp up (via Erik Boland of Newsday). That might get Luis Severino and either of Clarke Schmidt or Domingo Germán — who appear to be the top competitors for the vacant final rotation spot — on the mound a day or two earlier than anticipated but suggests New York still believes Cortes will avoid a trip to the injured list.

The competition between Germán and Schmidt for the last starting spot, necessitated by the Frankie Montas injury, is one of a handful of position battles for the Yankees to sort through over the coming weeks. On the position player side, the club’s biggest decisions revolve around shortstop and left field. There could be some unexpected overlap between those calls, as Boone told reporters the club could consider getting Isiah Kiner-Falefa some outfield work (link via Chris Kirschner and Brendan Kuty of the Athletic).

Kiner-Falefa has never played the outfield at the major league level. He started only seven games on the grass while coming up through the minor leagues. After beginning his career as a middle infielder, Kiner-Falefa started to see some action behind the plate during his time in the Rangers’ system. He caught at the big league level from 2018-19 but eventually transitioned back to the infield — first as a high-end defensive third baseman and eventually as a primary shortstop.

While Defensive Runs Saved has loved Kiner-Falefa’s shortstop work, Statcast’s Outs Above Average has rated him much less favorably than when he was at the hot corner. While there might be some debate about his defense, Kiner-Falefa’s bat has been more consistent. He’s a high-contact hitter who doesn’t walk a whole lot or hit for much power. Last year’s .261/.314/.327 performance was right in line with his career track record.

The Yankees broke in top prospect Oswald Peraza late last year and could turn shortstop over to him on an everyday basis headed into 2023. The 22-year-old acquitted himself well over an 18-game MLB cameo on the heels of a .259/.329/.448 line in 99 Triple-A games. With another top prospect, Anthony Volpe, on the horizon, it doesn’t seem Kiner-Falefa will hold the shortstop job for long even if he secures the Opening Day nod.

Branching out into the outfield makes for a reasonable experiment to expand his flexibility for a possible bench role. While Harrison Bader and Aaron Judge have two spots secured, left field mostly seems set to come down to Aaron Hicks or Oswaldo Cabrera. While Kiner-Falefa isn’t the caliber of hitter a team would be anxious to pencil into the corner outfield regularly, it wouldn’t be surprising if he proves himself capable from a defensive perspective. He’s a good runner and has already shown the willingness and ability to adapt to a number of infield responsibilities. Branching out into the outfield could position him to take on a super-utility role if he’s squeezed out of the regular middle infield by some combination of Peraza, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu and eventually Volpe.

A’s Notes: Allen, Snead, Stadium

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The A’s head into what’s all but certain to be a noncompetitive season, one which is more about gauging the progress of young players than short-term results. That’d point towards 24-year-old Nick Allen being the favorite for the shortstop job. Long seen as one of the more intriguing prospects in the system thanks to his defensive ability, Allen indeed impressed with the glove over 809 innings in the middle infield as a rookie. He paired that with well below-average offense, however, posting a .207/.256/.291 line with only four home runs and a meager 5.8% walk percentage through 326 plate appearances.

General manager David Forst was noncommittal about the shortstop position over the weekend, telling reporters he doesn’t “know that we have anything penciled in” (link via Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). Forst pointed to veteran utilityman Aledmys Díaz — signed to a two-year, $14.5MM free agent deal — as an alternative. Díaz has plenty of experience throughout the infield and is better suited for second or third base defensively, though he’s a more consistent hitter than Allen has yet proven himself to be.

Concerns about Allen’s offense have persisted since his time in the minors, thanks largely to questions about how much impact potential he has in a 5’8″ frame. The former third-round draftee showed decent bat-to-ball skills as a rookie but only made hard contact on 22.3% of his batted balls — the fifth-lowest rate among hitters with at least 200 such events. Forst noted that Allen could continue to see work at second base as well. Aside from Díaz, veteran Tony Kemp and offseason pickup Jace Peterson can work at the keystone and/or at third base.

In other news out of Oakland:

  • Kawahara also notes there could be an opportunity for non-roster invitees Jake Fishman or Garrett Williams to crack the roster as a left-handed bullpen option out of camp. That’s in part due to some health uncertainty for southpaw Kirby Snead. As noted by the MLB.com injury tracker, Snead has been shut down from throwing indefinitely after suffering a strain in his throwing shoulder late last month. Acquired from the Blue Jays last spring as part of the Matt Chapman deal, the 28-year-old pitched in 46 games for the A’s last season. He allowed a 5.84 ERA across 44 2/3 innings, striking out a below-average 16.7% of opposing hitters. Snead, who still has a minor league option year remaining, had been vying for a job as a second lefty behind Sam Moll in the relief hierarchy.
  • The A’s hosted the Reds for a series in Las Vegas over the weekend as part of Cactus League play. While a pair of exhibition games won’t have any impact on the franchise’s ongoing stadium uncertainty, it naturally led to some renewed attention about the matter. Forst downplayed the series’ relevance to the stadium search, pointing out that the A’s Triple-A affiliate plays in Vegas (link via Martín Gallegos of MLB.com). The GM indicated he didn’t have any preference regarding the franchise’s ultimate destination. “I don’t take sides,” Forst said of the cities. “I have to be focused on us getting a ballpark. (Team president Dave Kaval) is focused on where it’s going to be. We (in baseball operations) really can’t spend a lot of time thinking about the ‘where’ right now.” At the Winter Meetings in December, commissioner Rob Manfred pointed to January 15, 2024 as something of a deadline for the A’s to have a binding stadium agreement (Associated Press link). Under the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement, the A’s would lose their status as a recipient of revenue sharing payments if no deal is agreed upon, either in Oakland or elsewhere, by that date.

The Guardians’ Former Rule 5 Breakout Reliever

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The Guardians surprised a number of onlookers with their run to an AL Central title last season. Among the reasons for that success: a bullpen that was one of the league’s most effective. Cleveland relievers finished fifth in ERA (3.05), sixth in strikeout percentage (26.4%) and fourth in ground-ball rate (46.4%).

Some of that excellent rate production was a byproduct of a strong rotation that consistently worked deeper into games than most. Cleveland relievers finished just 26th in innings pitched. A reliable starting staff no doubt took some of the pressure off manager Terry Francona and the top late-game weapons at his disposal.

That’s not to take anything away from the coaching staff or the relievers overall, however. Cleveland had eight relievers who threw 35+ innings last season; seven of them finished with an ERA of 3.25 or better. Five allowed fewer than three earned runs per nine innings, with the bulk of that group consisting of generally lower-profile hurlers who were acquired without much fanfare.

That’s perhaps best personified by 27-year-old righty Trevor Stephan, who broke out with an All-Star caliber showing in his second big league season. The 6’5″ hurler pitched in 66 games and tallied 63 2/3 innings. He posted a 2.69 ERA while striking out an excellent 30.7% of opposing hitters with a solid 48.1% ground-ball rate. Stephan picked up swinging strikes on 16.2% of his total offerings, a top 25 rate among relievers with 30+ innings.

There was very little to nitpick in Stephan’s performance. He missed bats, kept the ball on the ground when he did surrender contact, and limited walks to a tiny 6.7% clip. Stephan overwhelmed right-handed opponents, surrendering just a .207/.263/.293 line in 153 plate appearances. Lefty batters hit .280 against him but without significant impact, reaching base at a .348 clip while slugging .380. Stephan mixes three pitches in a power arsenal, backing up a 96-97 MPH fastball with a wipeout splitter and a quality slider.

While that production didn’t come entirely out of nowhere, it was a huge development for a pitcher who could have found himself on the roster bubble not that long ago. Originally selected in the third round of the 2017 draft by the Yankees, the University of Arkansas product spent four years in the New York farm system but didn’t secure a 40-man roster spot. He’d posted fine but unexceptional numbers as a starting pitcher between High-A and Double-A in 2019. Like every other minor leaguer, he wasn’t able to log any game action in 2020.

The Yankees opted not to protect him from the Rule 5 draft during the 2020-21 offseason. Cleveland nabbed him with the 24th selection and kept him on the MLB roster the entire following year. Stephan had an inconsistent rookie year working mostly in low-leverage innings. He posted a 4.41 ERA through 63 1/3 frames, striking out an impressive 26.6% of opponents but surrendering far too many walks and home runs. That changed in 2022, a season in which Stephan dramatically increased the use of his split to great success.

Stephan now looks like a key-high leverage bridge to star closer Emmanuel Clase. He joins hard-throwing James Karinchak as the top righty Cleveland setup arms heading into 2023. Southpaw Sam Hentges — a former fourth-round pick who had a breakout ’22 season of his own — would have a key role if healthy, though he’s battling a shoulder issue with an uncertain recovery timetable.

Controllable through 2026 and not eligible for arbitration until next offseason, Stephan would be an incredibly valuable piece for the foreseeable future if he’s able to replicate most of last year’s success. He already looks like one of the better Rule 5 selections in recent memory, posting the caliber of season rarely seen from players available via that process. The 2020 Rule 5 draft generally turned out far better than most, with the biggest successes coming at the Yankees’ expense. In addition to Stephan, New York lost right-hander Garrett Whitlock to their archrivals in Boston that year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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