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Dodgers Weighing Depth Possibilities In Response To Gavin Lux Injury

By Anthony Franco | March 3, 2023 at 8:34pm CDT

The Dodgers were dealt a significant blow to their position player group this week. Shortstop Gavin Lux tore his ACL in exhibition play and will miss the entire season. That pushes veteran Miguel Rojas from his expected utility capacity into a regular shortstop role and thins out the overall depth behind Miguel Vargas and Max Muncy at second and third base, respectively.

President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman chatted with reporters this afternoon and left open the possibility the club could go outside the organization to bolster their position player group (link via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). The L.A. baseball ops leader didn’t hint at any urgency to make a move but implied they could look into ways to fortify the offensive group.

“Depth is always something that we talk about,” Friedman told reporters. “It was a big driver for us to go out and get Miguel Rojas and we feel like between him and (Chris Taylor) that we’re in a good spot. … So for us, if we are going to add from the outside it’s going to be something that fits us differently or is a more impactful player in our mind.”

Friedman noted the club wasn’t limiting themselves solely to exploring the market for shortstop-capable players. That’s tied to Taylor’s versatility, in particular, as he’s capable of lining up essentially anywhere on the diamond. Acquiring a corner outfielder, for instance, could indirectly add to the infield depth by freeing Taylor up for more work on the dirt.

Plunkett writes that any addition, if one comes to fruition, is likelier to come via trade than free agency. Jurickson Profar is the top unsigned position player, while José Iglesias leads the market of remaining free agent shortstops. Identifying viable trade targets is quite difficult at this stage of the offseason. The trade market has been quiet all winter and particularly frigid in recent weeks. The majority of teams have more or less set the core of their season-opening rosters, and there are only a handful of clubs going into the year without any real designs on being competitive.

“It’s difficult. It’s not the most natural time to make a trade,” Friedman acknowledged. “So we’ll spend more time figuring out what’s possible. We’re not sure at this point and we’re trying to wrap our arms around the various profiles of a player and how it would fit. … It just depends on what’s available. Just because of spring training and the nature of it and typically, it’s a slower trade market and more centered around guys without (minor league) options. Now, there could be players like that who fit as well, or it could be someone internal.”

Baltimore’s Jorge Mateo, Kansas City’s Nicky Lopez, the Cubs’ Nick Madrigal and the Yankees’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa are among the players whose names have been floated as candidates to change uniforms this offseason — either in publicly reported trade discussions or loose speculation based on those clubs’ infield situations. Buster Olney of ESPN reported this morning the Dodgers had checked in with the Yankees regarding Kiner-Falefa early in the offseason. That was before L.A. acquired Rojas, an acquisition that would’ve almost assuredly ruled Kiner-Falefa out of the plans until Lux’s injury.

There’s no indication the Dodgers and Yankees have revisited those discussions in the past few days or have any plans to do so. It stands to reason the Yankees would welcome talks if the Dodgers were to circle back to him as a possible target. Kiner-Falefa is playing this season on a $6MM arbitration salary; he’s on hand as a possible utility option but could lose the starting shortstop job in the Bronx to top prospect Oswald Peraza. New York is reportedly reluctant to exceed the $293MM final luxury tax barrier — which they’d do with any kind of notable acquisition — and Kiner-Falefa is perhaps the most straightforward candidate on the roster for a trade that could free up some spending capacity.

The Dodgers themselves were flirting with the possibility of dipping below a luxury tax tier, in their case the $233MM base threshold. The Rojas acquisition put that to bed, however, and Friedman has subsequently affirmed they have no plans to shed money and get under the CBT marker at this point. That doesn’t provide much insight into how much room they have for further additions, however. Roster Resource currently projects their luxury tax number around $245MM, which puts them approximately $8MM shy of the second penalization tier.

If they don’t go outside the organization, the Dodgers would run with a regular infield of Freddie Freeman, Vargas, Rojas and Muncy across the diamond. Taylor could step in at times but would presumably spend more time in left and center field, while right fielder Mookie Betts could see some action at second base.

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Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Chris Taylor Isiah Kiner-Falefa Miguel Rojas

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The Reds’ Numerous Outfield Possibilities

By Anthony Franco | March 3, 2023 at 6:38pm CDT

The Reds go into the 2023 campaign looking at another evaluation year. Cincinnati is coming off a 100-loss season and didn’t make many immediate upgrades over the winter. It’ll be a non-competitive season, one that sees a number of unproven players look to carve out longer-term roles.

No area of the roster is more wide open than the outfield. Cincinnati has eight outfielders on their 40-man roster. Of that group, only offseason signee Wil Myers has a lengthy big league track record. Myers had some ups and downs as a member of the Padres, showcasing strong power potential at times but undercutting it with lofty strikeout totals at others. Signed to a one-year, $7.5MM deal, he’ll surely receive regular playing time either in the corner outfield or at first base. The franchise will hope he’ll hit well enough to draw some attention from contenders at the trade deadline.

Everyone else in the Cincinnati outfield is hoping to earn a consistent spot in the lineup. It’s a similar group to that of the rebuilding Athletics — one that has a glut of upper level options but very little in the way of established big league production.

Jake Fraley, 27, two minor league options remaining

Fraley is probably the favorite for regular reps among the group of unproven players. Acquired from the Mariners in last spring’s Eugenio Suarez/Jesse Winker deal, Fraley put up an impressive .259/.344/.468 line with 12 home runs over his first 247 plate appearances as a Red. Most of that work came in the season’s second half, as he lost a good portion of the beginning of the year to right knee issues.

The lefty-swinging Fraley also posted solid offensive marks in a limited role in Seattle the previous year. He carries a .235/.348/.419 line with 21 homers and 16 doubles in 145 games over the past couple seasons. He doesn’t hit the ball especially hard but makes contact at a decent clip and has an extremely patient offensive approach. Fraley has limited experience in center and right field (rating poorly at both stops); he’s gotten solid reviews from public defensive metrics for his left field glovework.

Nick Senzel, 27, three options remaining

A former #2 overall pick, Senzel was a consensus top prospect before reaching the majors in 2019. He hasn’t met those expectations thus far, struggling to a .240/.303/.360 line in 1036 career plate appearances. A natural third baseman, Senzel moved primarily to center field at the MLB level and has gotten middling to well below-average reviews for his glove from various metrics.

Senzel has shown above-average contact skills at the big league level, though he hasn’t made much of a power impact. Despite his early-career struggles, the Reds have maintained throughout the offseason they plan to give him another crack at seizing the center field job. It feels like a make-or-break season, with Senzel now into his arbitration seasons and having performed below replacement level thus far.

The Reds are obviously still hopeful he can take a long-awaited step forward. He’ll first need to get healthy. Senzel underwent surgery to repair a fractured toe over the offseason. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote this afternoon that he’s begun swinging a bat in simulated games at the team’s spring complex. He has yet to progress to full speed running.

TJ Friedl, 27, two options remaining

Friedl has been one of the more interesting outfielders in the Cincinnati farm system for a few seasons. He got a brief big league look late in 2021 and received his first extended action last season. In 258 plate appearances across 72 games, he hit at a league average clip: .240/.314/.436 with eight home runs, a modest 7.8% walk percentage and a tiny 15.5% strikeout rate.

The left-handed hitter had more resounding success over a similar stretch of time for Triple-A Louisville. Friedl posted a .278/.371/.468 line with eight homers, an 11.6% walk rate and a 19.9% strikeout percentage over 241 trips with the Bats. That mostly aligns with his longstanding prospect reputation. Friedl doesn’t have much power but he has a solid feel for the strike zone and puts the ball in play with regularity. He can play all three outfield positions, though advanced metrics weren’t enthused with his first MLB work on the grass. Friedl has typically been regarded by prospect evaluators as a high-probability fourth/fifth outfielder. The upcoming campaign could be his best opportunity to outperform that expectation.

Will Benson, 24, three options remaining

Benson, acquired from the Guardians last month, has a polar opposite approach from Friedl. He’s also a left-handed batter but boasts huge power upside with a long track record of lofty strikeout totals. A former first-round draftee whose prospect shine had dimmed, Benson put himself back on the map with arguably a career-best season last year.

In 89 games with Cleveland’s top minor league affiliate, he hit .278/.426/.522 with 17 home runs. Benson walked a massive 18.7% clip — par for the course throughout his career — and struck out in an average 22.7% of his trips. It was the first time he’d posted a strikeout rate below 28% at any stop and only his second season fanning in fewer than 30% of his PA’s. Benson didn’t produce in a 28-game MLB cameo and was still buried on Cleveland’s outfield depth chart, but his step forward intrigued the Reds enough to take a look. He’s best suited for right field and can cover center on occasion.

Nick Solak, 28, one option remaining

Another one-time top prospect, Solak has had some inconsistent performances the past few years with the Rangers. He had an excellent 33-game debut in 2019. Since the start of 2020, however, the righty-swinging Solak carries a modest .246/.317/.354 line in 839 MLB plate appearances. Longstanding concerns about his defense at second base eventually pushed him to left field, where he has gotten subpar grades from public statistics.

To his credit, Solak hasn’t allowed his MLB inconsistency to bleed into his performance in the minor leagues. Optioned to Triple-A by Texas last season, he put up an impressive .278/.371/.489 mark with 10 longballs, an 11.6% walk rate and a 19.7% strikeout percentage in 57 contests. The Rangers never seemed to trust him enough to give him an extended look despite woeful MLB production from their left fielders, though. Texas dealt him to Cincinnati for cash immediately after the season ended.

Michael Siani, 23, three options remaining

A former fourth-round pick, Siani has spent the past few seasons ranked among the middle tiers of the Cincinnati farm system. Praised for his speed and defensive acumen in center field, he went 49 for 61 as a basestealer over 121 Double-A games last year. His overall .252/.351/.404 line with 12 home runs at that level was solid if unexceptional for a 22-year-old. Siani earned cups of coffee in both Louisville and Cincinnati towards the end of the season.

It stands to reason Cincinnati will start Siani back in Triple-A given his lack of experience there. Baseball America ranked him the organization’s #19 prospect this winter, projecting him as a glove-first fourth outfielder.

Stuart Fairchild, 26, one option remaining

A former Cincinnati second-round pick, Fairchild was dealt to the Diamondbacks at the 2020 trade deadline. He made his MLB debut with Arizona the following season, getting into 12 games. The Wake Forest product bounced around via minor trade and waivers last year, playing in four different organizations. He finished the season back with his original club when the Reds nabbed him off waivers from the Giants in June.

Fairchild played in 38 games for Cincinnati, connecting on five home runs in 99 trips. He struck out 29 times while drawing only eight walks but showed intriguing power. That was also the case in Triple-A, where he combined for a .258/.353/.490 line in 53 contests despite the constant uniform changes. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions.

Chad Pinder, 30, not on 40-man roster

Pinder, a longtime member of the Athletics, signed a non-roster pact with a major league Spring Training invitation this winter. He’s coming off a .235/.263/.385 showing in 111 games for Oakland. The right-handed hitting Pinder has some power and a decent track record of hitting lefty pitching. He’s versatile enough to cover anywhere on the infield in addition to his corner outfield work. Pinder seems to have a strong chance at securing a bench role given that flexibility and Cincinnati’s fairly left-handed outfield mix. As a major league free agent who signed a minor league contract, he’ll have an automatic opt-out opportunity five days before the start of the regular season if he’s not added to the MLB roster.

Overall

Aside from Pinder, former highly-regarded prospect Allan Cerda and KBO veteran Henry Ramos are also in camp on non-roster contracts. Neither looks to have a strong chance at cracking the Opening Day roster considering the number of alternative outfield options for the front office and coaching staff to evaluate.

Myers is the only member of the current group who can’t be sent to the minor leagues, although Pinder couldn’t be optioned if he cracks the MLB roster. That could set the stage for plenty of shuffling over the next six months. The organization is surely hoping two or three players from the group will cement themselves as everyday options based on their 2023 production, lending some clarity to the longer-term mix.

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Cincinnati Reds MLBTR Originals Chad Pinder Jake Fraley Michael Siani Nick Senzel Nick Solak Stuart Fairchild TJ Friedl Wil Myers Will Benson

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Padres Likely To Explore Extension Talks With Josh Hader, Juan Soto This Spring

By Anthony Franco | March 2, 2023 at 11:57pm CDT

The Padres achieved their top priority of the spring over the weekend, agreeing to an 11-year, $350MM deal with Manny Machado to keep him from retesting the free agent market next offseason. That came on the heels of a summer deal for Joe Musgrove and a recent extension with Yu Darvish.

Even after that series of transactions, the Friars have a handful of key players slated to hit the open market within the next two years. Last summer’s marquee deadline acquisitions — Josh Hader and Juan Soto — are both deep into their arbitration seasons. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that San Diego is likely to soon be in contact with both players’ camps to discuss possible extension frameworks. Dennis Lin of the Athletic similarly wrote this week the Friars were likely to take a run at extension talks with Soto.

There hasn’t been as much speculation regarding possible Hader negotiations. It’s not a surprise that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office plan to at least check in with the four-time All-Star, though. Hader is one season away from the open market and joins Blake Snell as the top impending free agents on the San Diego roster.

29 next month, Hader has a chance of securing a record-setting deal for a reliever. He owns a sterling 2.71 ERA with an eye-popping 43.2% strikeout rate over parts of six big league campaigns. No pitcher (minimum 200 innings) has punched out hitters at a higher rate since Hader came into the league. He’s three percentage points clear of second-place finisher Edwin Díaz. Hader also leads the league in SIERA (2.13) and swinging strike percentage (19.2%) over that stretch.

Díaz is second in both those categories as well. The Mets’ closer became the first reliever in league history to top the hundred million dollar mark this offseason, returning to Queens on a five-year, $102MM pact days before free agency opened. Díaz signed that deal in advance of his age-29 campaign and coming off one of the most dominant seasons by a closer in recent memory. He fanned more than half his opponents en route to a 1.31 ERA in 62 innings.

Hader, on the other hand, is coming off arguably the worst season of his career. He allowed more than five earned runs per nine, including a disappointing 7.31 mark in 19 appearances after the Padres acquired him from Milwaukee. Hader was a bit homer-prone early in the season with the Brewers. While he got that under control in San Diego, his walk rate jumped a few percentage points towards year’s end.

Despite that wobbly conclusion, Hader still enters extension negotiations with strong leverage. He’ll play the upcoming season on a hefty $14.1MM contract after avoiding arbitration. The lanky southpaw remains one of the sport’s highest-upside relief weapons. Even in his relative down year, Hader finished sixth among relievers who threw 50+ innings with a 37% strikeout rate. He placed 18th in swinging strike rate and averaged a personal-high 97.4 MPH on his sinker.

Hader’s youth and career résumé still position him as the favorite for the largest contract among relievers in next winter’s class. Díaz’s deal serves as a reference for the kind of money Hader could land if he had a vintage platform season. The New York righty had some ups and downs in the years leading up to 2022 — including a 5.59 ERA in 2019 and a fine but not overwhelming 3.45 mark in ’21 — before reaching new heights last season.

Considering his hefty arbitration salaries and proximity to free agency, Hader isn’t under pressure to sign for below-market rates this spring. He told Heyman he’d “definitely” be open to extension talks but didn’t offer any indication he’d take a hometown discount. “It’s a great place to be, but at the end of the day, business is business,” Hader said.

Locking up Soto would be an even more challenging endeavor, of course. The three-time Silver Slugger is playing this season on a $23MM arbitration contract. He’s likely to approach or top $30MM for his final arbitration season in 2024 and is trending towards free agency over the 2024-25 offseason. Soto would hit the market before his age-26 campaign and is generally expected to command the largest guarantee in league history (although the intervening potential free agency of Shohei Ohtani could first set a new high-water mark).

Soto has already declined an offer for what would’ve been the largest deal in MLB history. The Nationals reportedly offered a 15-year, $440MM pact last summer. Soto passed, leading Washington to pivot to trade discussions that’d eventually culminate in one of the biggest deadline deals ever. Soto’s performance in San Diego after the trade — .238/.388/.390 with more walks than strikeouts through 228 plate appearances — was disappointing by his massive standards but still markedly above average.

It stands to reason the Padres would at least have to beat the $440MM the Nats were prepared to offer in order to convince Soto to bypass a trip to the open market. How high he and his representatives are aiming isn’t clear, though Soto told Heyman his camp is “open to talking” with San Diego brass. However, he also added that “every player wants to get a try at free agency and a chance to decide where they want to go and where is best for their family.”

The Padres project for the third-highest luxury tax payroll in the majors this season, with Roster Resource forecasting them just under $275MM at present. Long-term deals for Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Musgrove, Darvish and Robert Suarez already have upwards of $130MM on the books through 2027. Tatis, Bogaerts and Machado alone will count for nearly $100MM annually between 2028-33. That’s plenty of future money tied up, though it also reinforces how willing owner Peter Seidler and the front office have been to commit to star talent.

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Seiya Suzuki Likely To Open Season On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | March 2, 2023 at 10:15pm CDT

Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki is “highly likely” to start the year on the injured list, writes Patrick Mooney of the Athletic. That has seemed a strong possibility in recent days after an MRI revealed a strain of his left oblique.

The team didn’t provide many specifics on Suzuki’s injury. They declined to narrow down the grade of the strain or a timetable this week, only announcing it as a “moderate strain” on Tuesday. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer stopped short of ruling Suzuki out for the start of the season today but suggested an IL stint was on the table.

“We’re not going to put any firm timetables on it, but there are general expectations of what a ‘moderate’ oblique injury is,” Hoyer said (via Mooney). “That certainly puts Opening Day in strong jeopardy. We just want to make sure we get him completely healthy. When that is, I’m not sure. But when he does come back, he’s going to be ready to go and we’re not going to be concerned about it.”

Signed to a five-year, $85MM deal last offseason, Suzuki made a solid first impression against MLB pitching. He hit .262/.336/.433 with 14 home runs in 111 games, though a sprain of his left ring finger cost him a month of his rookie year. Suzuki walked at a solid 9.4% clip and made hard contact on an above-average 40.3% of his batted balls. His 24.7% strikeout rate was a couple points north of the league average but his contact rate on a per-pitch basis was strong.

It was an altogether encouraging first look, with Suzuki showing the foundation of solid or better contact skills, plate discipline and power. His year featured some peaks and valleys — most notably when he followed up a torrid first month with a dismal showing in May — but his overall offensive production checked in 16 percentage points above league average as measured by wRC+. Paired with his .315/.414/.570 showing over nine seasons at Japan’s top level, Suzuki entered 2023 as a potential middle-of-the-lineup presence.

That’ll likely be put on hold by the oblique issue. There still isn’t much clarity about when the Cubs expect him to return, though it’s not uncommon for oblique strains to sideline players for upwards of four to six weeks. If he does start off on the shelf, it appears right field will fall to Trey Mancini in the early going. Signed to a two-year free agent guarantee this offseason, the longtime Oriole is coming off a .239/.319/.391 showing with 18 homers in 587 plate appearances.

Mancini popped 35 homers back in 2019 but that season increasingly looks like an outlier in comparison to the rest of his career. He typically produces slightly above-average offensive marks, blending solid but not standout bat-to-ball tendencies and power. Mancini has a little under 2500 career innings of corner outfield work at the major league level. Public defensive metrics have generally panned his work in both left and right field, little surprise for a player who played mostly first base in college and in the minor leagues.

While a first base/designated hitter role better suits Mancini, he’s at least capable of holding down a corner outfield spot temporarily. Playing him in right field in the short term would leave a few more first base and DH at-bats for the likes of Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom and Edwin Ríos. The Cubs are planning to play Eric Hosmer at first base regularly against right-handed pitching but could turn to Wisdom there against southpaws.

Morel can also factor into the right field mix, as could the likes of Nelson Velazquez and non-roster invitee Mike Tauchman. Should Mancini be pressed into regular right field duty, that’d perhaps open a clearer path for first base prospect Matt Mervis — fresh off a monster season across three minor league levels — to earn his first big league call early in the year.

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Dodgers Notes: Hudson, Reyes, Buehler

By Anthony Franco | March 2, 2023 at 9:39pm CDT

Dodgers reliever Daniel Hudson is working his way back after his 2022 season was cut short by an ACL tear in his left knee. The veteran righty had been one of the sport’s most effective bullpen arms to that point, working to a 2.22 ERA with a 30.9% strikeout percentage in 24 1/3 innings. Los Angeles rolled the dice on a return to form last September, signing Hudson to a $6.5MM contract for this year with a matching base salary on a 2024 club option.

That positions Hudson for a potential high-leverage relief role, though he might not ready right out of the gate. Skipper Dave Roberts told reporters this afternoon that Hudson’s availability for Opening Day is in question (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). While he’s seemingly past his ACL rehab, the 13-year veteran was delayed in camp after battling ankle tendinitis over the winter.

It doesn’t seem there’s any cause for serious concern. Roberts indicated that Hudson has progressed to throwing high-intensity bullpen sessions in recent days. The issue may have simply held him up long enough in camp he might not be ready for regular season game action within a month, though there’s no indication he’d face any kind of long-term injured list stint.

A healthy Hudson would be an option for late-inning work as Roberts sorts through his bullpen hierarchy. Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol and Alex Vesia also seem like locks for high-leverage roles. Players like Shelby Miller, Yency Almonte and Jimmy Nelson could pitch their way into key innings.

Hudson and Nelson each lost much or all of last season recovering from injury. The Dodgers have shown a tolerance for injury risk in taking upside plays in their bullpen. Los Angeles also extended Blake Treinen (a move that looks regrettable in light of a subsequent shoulder surgery that’ll cost him most or all of the upcoming season) and recently took a shot on former Cardinals closer Alex Reyes. The Dodgers guaranteed him $1.1MM on an incentive-laden free agent deal, securing a $3MM club option for 2024 in the process.

Reyes is building back from a shoulder procedure of his own. He went under the knife to fix a labrum tear last May and has never been viewed as an Opening Day option. According to MLB.com, Reyes has been throwing regularly off flat ground but is not expected to get onto a mound until the end of this month at the earliest. Bullpen sessions would be the precursor towards a potential minor league rehab assignment. Reyes will surely need multiple weeks between his first mound work and a potential return as he builds strength after nearly 18 months since his last game action. He’s a hopeful midseason reinforcement.

Sticking with the theme of rehabbing L.A. hurlers, Roberts said All-Star starter Walker Buehler made a few throws from 60 feet yesterday (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). It’s the first step of a long build in a throwing program for the righty, who underwent the second Tommy John surgery of his career last August. He’s now a little more than six months removed from that procedure and seems on track in his recovery. The Dodgers haven’t closed the door on Buehler potentially returning in a relief capacity at the tail end of the season, though it’s still far too early in the process to tell if that’ll wind up being possible.

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Cubs Have Shown Interest In Mike Minor

By Anthony Franco | March 2, 2023 at 7:55pm CDT

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said this afternoon the team was still monitoring the market for left-handed relief. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic adds some specificity to that search, reporting that players like Mike Minor, Will Smith and Brad Hand have all been under consideration. Mooney also adds Zack Britton — whose appeal to the Cubs has previously been reported — as a player the club has checked in on.

Interest in Smith, Hand and Britton is fairly straightforward for a club seeking southpaw help in the later innings. They’re arguably the three top unsigned relievers of either handedness. They’re all former All-Stars with strong career track records and more recent question marks.

Smith had a rocky first half of the season in Atlanta but quietly impressed following a deadline trade to the Astros. Hand allowed fewer than three earned runs per nine innings with the Phillies last season, but that came with strikeout and walk marks that were a few percentage points worse than the respective league averages. Britton has barely pitched over the past season and a half after battling elbow issues that culminated in September 2021 Tommy John surgery.

Smith has only previously been linked to the Tigers this offseason. Evan Petzold of the Free-Press reported Detroit’s interest a couple weeks back but noted that Smith was also drawing attention from clearer-cut contenders. The Cubs are coming off a 74-88 season but were well better than Detroit in 2022 and have had a far more active offseason in an effort for immediate improvement. The only other team that has been publicly tied to Hand are the Twins.

Unlike that trio, Minor hasn’t had any recent work out of the bullpen. He pitched exclusively in relief for the 2017 Royals after two seasons lost to shoulder problems. Since then, the veteran left-hander has pitched essentially entirely as a starter. He has started all but one of 119 appearances in the last five years. Minor had quite a bit of success in that capacity with the Rangers between 2018-19. Things have gone downhill in the trio of seasons since then.

Minor has allowed more than five earned runs per nine innings in each of the past three campaigns. Between 2020-21, he at least stayed mostly healthy and served as a source of back-of-the-rotation innings. That wasn’t the case in 2022, however. Minor was limited to 98 frames over 19 starts during his lone season as a member of the Reds. He posted a 6.06 ERA with a career-worst 16.7% strikeout percentage while allowing an untenable 2.2 home runs per nine.

It’s possible Minor’s struggles are attributable, at least in part, to injury. The 35-year-old began the season on the injured list with a shoulder concern and didn’t make his season debut until early June. He finished the year back on the IL thanks to renewed shoulder issues. The former All-Star hinted at potential retirement last fall but has apparently decided to give things another go. He recently held a showcase for interested teams.

Minor could appeal to teams seeking to stockpile their rotation depth, though the Cubs are presumably eyeing him as a potential relief option. Chicago has Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele and Drew Smyly penciled into their top four rotation spots. Hayden Wesneski, Adrian Sampson and Javier Assad headline the group competing for the final rotation job to open the year. Kyle Hendricks, who’d surely get a starting job once healthy, is reportedly looking towards May for a potential rehab stint after his 2022 campaign was cut short by a capsule tear in his shoulder.

The Cubs have been linked to a number of lefty relief options throughout the offseason. Brandon Hughes is the only southpaw assured of a season-opening bullpen job. There’s room for a second pitcher, though the club has slow-played that area despite an otherwise aggressive offseason that has brought in Taillon, Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Tucker Barnhart and a handful of right-handed ’pen arms.

There might not be much room left in the budget. Roster Resource projects the Cubs’ luxury tax number around $225MM, $8MM shy of this year’s base threshold. Mooney writes the organization presently views that tax marker “as a soft salary cap,” limiting the amount of flexibility for Hoyer and his front office. It seems unlikely any of the remaining relievers would secure an $8MM guarantee at this point in the offseason — Minor, in particular, might be limited to non-roster offers — but most teams prefer to leave a bit of payroll space for in-season acquisitions.

Whether ownership would approve a bump above the luxury tax if the team is competing for a playoff spot in-season remains to be seen. Owner Tom Ricketts spoke vaguely about the tax in January, saying there “will be times I’m sure in the near future where we’ll go over. But we’ll always keep in mind that there’s a balance there you have to always look to manage” (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). The Cubs last paid the luxury tax in 2020.

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Latest On Red Sox’s Catching Situation

By Anthony Franco | March 2, 2023 at 6:27pm CDT

The Red Sox could soon be faced with a choice to make behind the plate. Boston catcher Connor Wong suffered a left hamstring strain in today’s Spring Training action, manager Alex Cora informed reporters (including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). The severity of the injury and a possible recovery timetable won’t be known until Wong undergoes further testing tomorrow, though Cora said the issue “doesn’t look great right now.”

If Wong requires a layoff that lingers into the regular season, Boston will have no choice but to make a roster move at the position by Opening Day. He and Reese McGuire are the only two backstops on the Sox’s 40-man roster. Obviously, the club isn’t going into a season with only one catcher. If Wong’s injury necessitates a season-opening injured list stint, they’ll have to select another player’s contract or acquire someone from outside the organization.

An internal promotion would be the more straightforward move. The Red Sox have a trio of non-roster catchers who were recently on a club’s 40-man. Veteran Jorge Alfaro signed a minor league pact with a Spring Training invitation in January after being non-tendered by the Padres at season’s end. Caleb Hamilton and one-time top prospect Ronaldo Hernández each occupied spots on the Boston 40-man at recent points but were outrighted off the roster this winter. Both players remain in the organization and are in camp after going unclaimed on waivers.

Alfaro would appear the likeliest of that trio to land a season-opening job. He’s by far the most experienced at the MLB level, having appeared in parts of seven campaigns. Alfaro was a regular backstop for a few years in Miami and has flashed intriguing power upside and arm strength throughout his professional career. That’s been undercut by huge strikeout totals and inconsistent marks as a receiver, leading him to need to reclaim a 40-man spot for the first time since the 2014-15 offseason. The 29-year-old owns a .256/.305/.396 line with 47 home runs but a lofty 34.1% strikeout rate in 478 career MLB games.

In addition to his greater experience than either Hamilton or Hernández, Alfaro would have more flexibility to explore opportunities elsewhere if the Sox don’t promote him this spring. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that Alfaro’s minor league deal contains an “upward mobility” clause that’d go into effect on March 25.

The Red Sox have until then to add him to their 40-man roster to supersede that clause. If they decline to do so, Alfaro would have to be made available to the league’s 29 other teams to determine whether any would devote him an immediate MLB spot. Should another team offer him a big league job, the Sox would have a 72-hour window to “match” that by promoting him themselves or allow him to leave the organization. If no other team is willing to offer Alfaro a big league job, he’d remain with the Red Sox as a non-roster player into the season. He’d have opportunities to opt out of his deal on June 1 and July 1 to test free agency if he’s still not in the majors.

Alfaro has over five years of major league service time. That gives him the right to refuse any optional assignment to the minor leagues. That essentially means that if he secures a 40-man roster spot, he’d have to stick in the majors or be designated for assignment.

Hamilton and Hernández don’t have any contractual leverage to force a call-up. Both players will start the year at Triple-A Worcester if they’re not added to the 40-man. Hamilton made a brief MLB debut with the Twins last season after hitting .233/.367/.442 over 62 games for their top affiliate in St. Paul. The 25-year-old Hernández has still yet to play in the majors and has seen his former prospect shine wear as he’s gotten to the upper minors. He’s coming off a .261/.297/.451 showing with 17 longballs in 105 games for the WooSox.

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Offseason In Review Chat Transcript: Arizona Diamondbacks

By Anthony Franco | March 2, 2023 at 4:59pm CDT

MLBTR is hosting team-specific chats in conjunction with our Offseason In Review series this spring. Click here to view the transcript of the chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco regarding the Diamondbacks’ entry in the series.

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Liberty Media Releases Braves’ Financials For 2022

By Anthony Franco | March 1, 2023 at 11:35pm CDT

Liberty Media, the corporation which owns the Braves, is a publicly traded company. As a result, they’re one of two teams (the Blue Jays being the other) whose books are opened to the public. This morning, Liberty Media released 2022 financials. The full report is available courtesy of Investors Observer and chronicled by Doug Roberson of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

According to the report, Liberty Media collected a franchise-record $588MM in Braves-related revenue last year. That’s a $20MM jump over 2021’s previous franchise-record figure, which the corporation attributed to increased ticket demand and additional retail on the heels of Atlanta’s World Series championship.

The franchise’s operating income before debt and amortization (OIBDA), on the other hand, was down relative to last season. Its $71MM OIBDA was down from last year’s $104MM figure. The corporation reported an operating loss of $15MM after reporting $20MM in operating income during the prior season. However, those figures do not include revenue from the Battery Atlanta, a mixed-use development complex adjacent to Truist Park and owned by Liberty Media. Liberty Media reported $28MM in additional net operating income and $53MM in total revenues related to that project.

Regarding the related figures to the Braves franchise specifically, Liberty Media attributed the comparatively lower OIBDA and operating income to loftier revenue sharing expenses and a higher player payroll. Indeed, Atlanta’s Opening Day payroll checked in around a franchise-record $178MM in 2022 after sitting at approximately $131MM in 2021, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

However, another significant change for the organization between 2021 and ’22 was the club’s postseason fortune. The Braves, of course, won the championship in the former season and benefited from eight playoff home games. Their defeat in last year’s NL Division Series kept them to two postseason home contests. As a result, Liberty Media reported significantly lower fourth quarter revenues in 2022 than they had the prior season. Barring a repeat World Series run, the franchise’s playoff-related income always seemed likely to regress.

The Braves are coming off a very quiet offseason, at least from a free agent perspective. Atlanta acquired catcher Sean Murphy and promptly signed him to a six-year, $73MM extension. That was their only notable investment of the offseason. The club’s only other major league acquisitions were relievers Joe Jiménez and Lucas Luetge (combined $4.315MM in arbitration salaries), low-cost free agent deals for outfielder Jordan Luplow ($1.4MM) and reliever Nick Anderson ($875K if in the majors) and trades for pre-arbitration players like Eli White and Sam Hilliard.

Atlanta saw a top free agent depart for the second consecutive offseason, watching Dansby Swanson sign with the Cubs a year after Freddie Freeman went to the Dodgers. Despite the fairly quiet winter, they’re easily on track to again set a franchise high in player spending. The Braves will go into 2023 with a payroll in the $199MM range, as calculated by Roster Resource. Their projected luxury tax number sits a little under $240MM, which will exceed this year’s $233MM base threshold. The franchise looks set to pay the luxury tax for the first time in Liberty Media’s ownership tenure.

That’s a reflection of the staggering number of contracts already on the books, many of them early-career extensions. No other organization has had the same kind of success signing key players to long-term deals shortly after their MLB debuts. Those kinds of pacts tend to be backloaded to roughly mirror how a player’s earnings would have progressed via arbitration. Not coincidentally, Atlanta already has upwards of $90MM on the books through the 2028 campaign.

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The Red Sox’s Catching Question

By Anthony Franco | March 1, 2023 at 9:40pm CDT

For the first time in a half-decade, the Red Sox enter a season with questions about who’ll take the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate. Christian Vázquez has been their Opening Day starter in each of the last five years. His trade to Houston at last summer’s deadline and subsequent three-year free agent signing with the Twins ensures Boston will have to find a new solution in 2023.

The Sox currently have just two catchers on their 40-man roster. Boston brought in Reese McGuire in a trade with the White Sox just hours after shipping Vázquez out last August. The former first-round draftee finished the season well, hitting .337/.377/.500 with a trio of home runs in 36 games with Boston. It was an excellent first impression for the 27-year-old (28 tomorrow) but an outlier in the broader context of his career. In 566 plate appearances between the Blue Jays and White Sox prior to the trade, McGuire had hit .241/.286/.359 with only nine longballs.

McGuire hasn’t had many consistent opportunities to get into a groove against MLB pitching. Before last season, he’d never appeared in even half a team’s games. He’s generally had a strong defensive reputation, though. McGuire has rated as an above-average pitch framer in each of the past two seasons, per Statcast. In just under 1600 career innings behind the dish, he’s thrown out a very strong 31.4% of would-be basestealers.

Connor Wong looks like the early favorite to split time with McGuire at Fenway Park. The other catcher on the 40-man, he’s only played in 33 big league games over the past two seasons. Part of the Mookie Betts trade return from the Dodgers, the 26-year-old Wong has put up an impressive .276/.327/.471 line in 131 games for Triple-A Worcester. That included a particularly strong .288/.349/.489 showing with 15 homers across 355 plate appearances for the WooSox last season.

There’s reason for optimism regarding both McGuire and Wong, though there’s obvious risk in relying on either as a regular considering neither have proven themselves over a full season against MLB competition. McGuire hits left-handed and Wong swings from the right side. That’d seemingly raise the possibility of mixing and matching based on pitcher handedness, though manager Alex Cora pushed back against that this afternoon. “It’s not a strict platoon situation,” Cora said (link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe). “Wong can hit righties, too, and Reese can hit lefties. We’ll see how we do it. We’ll see what the roster is and we’ll make decisions.”

The Sox shied away from any significant catching additions this offseason. Boston didn’t add anyone on a major league free agent deal or via trade. Former Marlin and Padre Jorge Alfaro was brought aboard via non-roster pact. Alfaro brings some more experience to camp and looks like the top depth option in the organization. That he was limited to minor league offers this winter hints at the strikeout and defensive questions that have dogged him throughout his career. Alfaro is a .256/.305/.396 hitter with a 34.1% strikeout rate in parts of seven MLB campaigns. He has excellent arm strength but typically posts below-average marks as a receiver.

Former top prospect Ronaldo Hernández and Caleb Hamilton, claimed off waivers from the Twins at the start of the offseason, are also in the organization as non-roster players. Each has upper level experience but has gone unclaimed on waivers this winter and seems clearly behind McGuire and Wong on the roster.

It’s possible Boston looks to augment the catching depth before Opening Day, perhaps by targeting a veteran currently on a minor league deal elsewhere but who doesn’t crack an MLB roster. The Guardians, as one example, have each of Cam Gallagher, Meibrys Viloria and Zack Collins on non-roster pacts battling for a backup job this spring. Gary Sánchez is the top remaining free agent catcher. However, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week the Red Sox hadn’t had any contact with their longtime division rival.

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