Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Dodgers’ Friedman/Gomes Discuss Roberts, Kershaw, Bellinger, Justin Turner

By | at

The Dodgers were baseball’s best team in the regular season, winning a franchise-record 111 games. They cleared the next-closest team, the Astros, by five games and finished ten clear of anyone else in the National League.

That didn’t translate to postseason success, however, as Los Angeles dropped three of four to the division-rival Padres in their Divisional Series. As they enter the offseason earlier than hoped, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Brandon Gomes met with reporters this afternoon (links via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times and Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).

The executives predictably expressed their disappointment with the early postseason exit, with Friedman suggesting it was the most painful series loss of his tenure atop baseball operations. Yet he quickly downplayed the need for sweeping organizational changes, pointing to the volatility inherent in a short playoff series. While Friedman credited the Padres for outplaying the Dodgers during the Division Series, he noted the lack of situational hitting which plagued L.A. in the postseason is the sort of thing that tends to ebb and flow throughout a year.

To that point about the team not requiring any kind of drastic overhaul, Friedman confirmed previous reports manager Dave Roberts would be back for an eighth season. “I feel like Dave and his coaching staff did an incredible job during the regular season to lead this team to 111 wins,” Friedman said, noting that the skipper would “100%” return to the role in 2023. “I don’t feel like it’s a switch that was then turned off or the players needed a different voice in those (playoff) games. That’s my personal belief.”

Friedman added he doesn’t expect there to be any changes to Roberts’ coaching staff, implying that everyone will be offered a chance to return. Each offseason, teams run the risk of seeing a coach depart to take on a more impactful role with another club. Bench coach Bob Geren and first base coach Clayton McCullough each got some managerial attention last winter, for instance, and it’s possible their names are floated again in searches this offseason.

Turning to the playing personnel, Friedman and Gomes touched on a few key decisions they’ll need to make early in the offseason. Los Angeles will see franchise icon Clayton Kershaw hit free agency for the second straight winter. Last offseason, the Dodgers surprisingly elected not to make Kershaw a qualifying offer. Friedman later explained the Dodgers didn’t want to pressure the future Hall of Famer into making a decision whether to return within the 10-day window allotted to qualified free agents. Kershaw didn’t make a decision until after the lockout, and he eventually re-signed on a one-year, $17MM guarantee in Spring Training.

Because Kershaw didn’t receive a qualifying offer last winter, he’s eligible for one again. Friedman didn’t explicitly rule out the QO this time around but strongly hinted they’d again opt against it. “Like I said last year, I think for him to take the time and put his head together with (his wife) Ellen and figure out what makes the most sense for their family is what we’re going to give him time to do,” the Dodger president said. Friedman called it his “strong hope” that Kershaw elects to return for a 16th season in L.A.

This year’s qualifying offer has been set at $19.65MM. That’s a perfectly reasonable price to pay for the three-time Cy Young winner, who remains among the best starters in the game on a rate basis. Kershaw pitched to a sterling 2.28 ERA across 126 1/3 innings this past season, striking out an above-average 27.8% of opponents against an elite 4.7% walk rate. He lost roughly a month apiece to hip and back injuries, but he didn’t seem to feel any ill effects of the forearm discomfort that cut his 2021 season short.

Kershaw has stated a few times in recent weeks that he’s presently leaning towards continuing his career. Immediately after the series loss, he told reporters that “as of right now, I’d say I’ll play again.” He added that spending time with his family early in the offseason had the potential to change his mind, however, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Kershaw take his free agency process slower than most players do. Last winter’s decision seemed to come down to a return to L.A., joining his hometown Rangers, or retiring. It figures to be a similar story this winter, with both the Dodgers and Rangers sure to have significant interest in signing him. (Other teams would obviously call if Kershaw broadened his geographic range, but that’d be quite surprising).

While the ball is primarily in Kershaw’s court as to whether he returns to Dodger Stadium, the onus falls on the team to decide how to proceed with 2019 NL MVP Cody Bellinger. Bellinger is arbitration-eligible for a final time this winter, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to receive an $18.1MM salary if tendered a contract. Only Juan Soto has a higher arbitration projection, a testament to Bellinger’s early-career accomplishments. Those earned lofty salaries early in his career, and the arbitration system is designed so that salaries almost always escalate year-over-year.

However, Bellinger’s offensive production has evaporated over the past few seasons. He followed up his 47-homer MVP campaign with a slightly above-average showing (.239/.333/.455) in 2020. While that looked like a potential blip in an anomalous season, he’s seen a continued sharp drop-off at the plate. Bellinger hit .165/.240/.302 over 350 trips to the plate last year. He rebounded slightly this past season, but his .210/.265/.389 line across 550 plate appearances was still markedly worse than average.

Among 172 hitters with 800+ plate appearances over the past two seasons, Bellinger ranked dead last with a .256 on-base percentage. His .355 slugging mark is in the bottom ten. Bellinger’s 7.7% walk rate and 27.1% strikeout percentage are each worse than average, and his hard contact rate is down notably from its 2019 peak. Those extended struggles would seem to point towards Bellinger being non-tendered in lieu of such a large salary, but he’s been a strong plus outside the batter’s box. He swiped 14 bases in 17 attempts this past season and rated as an above-average baserunner overall. More importantly, he’s checked in as a plus defensive center fielder throughout his career, including a +5 runs above average from Statcast this season.

Neither Friedman nor Gomes made a definitive statement on the possibility of a non-tender, but Gomes generally praised Bellinger’s overall value. “Belli has had spurts of being really successful throughout the season,” the GM said. “I think elite defense has continued to be there, and we still think there’s (offensive) upside. So those are discussions we’re going to have moving forward as we look into what 2023 looks like.”

Friedman offered a similar sentiment when asked about the club’s $16MM option on third baseman Justin Turner. Friedman called Turner “a huge part of our success” but noted the front office needed more time to think through key roster decisions. Turner looked to be trending towards a $2MM buyout with a .256/.330/.403 showing in the first half of the season, but he made that a tough call for the front office by posting an excellent .319/.386/.503 line coming out of the All-Star Break.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The ALCS?

By | at

The Yankees knocked off the Guardians by a 5-1 margin this evening, taking two elimination games to advance past Cleveland. New York is back in the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2019.

Awaiting them tomorrow: an Astros juggernaut that has had one of the better runs of playoff success in recent history. Houston has gotten to the ALCS in six straight seasons. The first of those seasons was their now-infamous run to a World Series that was later revealed to be aided by a sign-stealing operation. Houston has barely missed a beat in the half-decade since then, though, playing for the pennant every year. The Astros claimed the pennant in both 2019 and 2021 (eliminating the Yankees during the former season), and while they’ve not managed to win a World Series since 2017, they’ve joined the 1990’s Braves as the only teams to reach six consecutive Championship Series.

Houston has home field advantage after a 106-win regular season, claiming the AL’s top seed in the second half after an historically great first few months by the Yankees. The ’Stros swept their division-rival Mariners last week, earning three off days in the process. Their pitching staff should essentially be lined up as desired, and they’ll turn to presumptive Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander tomorrow evening. The Yankees will answer with Jameson Taillon for Game One after using top two starters Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes on Sunday and today, respectively, to survive the Guardians.

The Yankees, anchored by an all-time great season from Aaron Judge, led all American League teams with 807 runs scored. Houston finished third in that category, plating 737 runs. New York finished second in the Junior Circuit behind the Blue Jays in on-base percentage at .325, while the Astros placed fourth at .319. The Yankees finished second in slugging (again behind Toronto) at .426, while Houston was just behind at .424.

While New York had a slight advantage offensively, the Astros were clearly the best pitching team in the American League. They led the league with a 2.95 rotation ERA, a half-run better than the second-place Rays. New York came in third at 3.51. Astros and Yankees starters each fanned 24.8% of opponents (with the Astros leading the league by a fraction of a percentage point). Houston’s bullpen was also number one in strikeout percentage at 28.3%, while the Yankees checked in sixth at 24.2%. Houston (2.80) and New York (2.97) finished first and second, respectively, in bullpen ERA.

It’s a battle of the two teams that have looked to be the best in the American League, in some order, from start to finish. Yesterday, MLBTR readers weighed in on an NLCS that took the exact opposite form. In a battle of the Senior Circuit’s fifth and sixth seeds, the readership gave a 56-44 edge to the Padres over the Phillies.  We’ll now put forth the same question for the American League. Which team is headed to the World Series: Astros or Yankees?

(poll link for app users)

Who Will Win The AL Championship Series?
Astros 67.93% (6,594 votes)
Yankees 32.07% (3,113 votes)
Total Votes: 9,707

 

Francisco Alvarez Undergoes Ankle Surgery, Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training

By | at

The Mets announced this evening that rookie catcher Francisco Álvarez underwent surgery to repair damaged cartilage in his right ankle. The club’s expectation is that’ll be ready for the start of Spring Training.

Álvarez is regarded by prospect evaluators as one of the top young talents in the sport. The 20-year-old backstop (21 next month) combined for a massive .260/.374/.511 line in 495 plate appearances between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse this season. The Mets rewarded him with a late-season big league call in an attempt to add some right-handed juice to the lineup as they tried to hold off the Braves in the NL East race. Álvarez collected two hits (including a homer) in 12 at-bats down the stretch, and Atlanta seized the division title. New York carried him on the Wild Card series roster against the Padres but only gave him one plate appearance in the loss.

New York certainly views Álvarez as their long-term backstop, but it’s possible he opens next season back in Triple-A. He only started one game behind the dish in the majors, with some reservation among evaluators about his current defensive level. He’s generally expected to remain a catcher long-term, but the Mets could determine he needs a few more reps behind the plate before taking over as a #1 catcher in the majors.

At some point in the not too distant future, however, Álvarez figures to get that longer look. The Mets have veteran James McCann under contract for two more years at a combined $24.3MM. The Mets would presumably welcome an opportunity to shed some of that money after McCann hit only .195/.257/.282 in 61 games this season. They’re not likely to find much trade interest, and McCann is well-regarded enough as a game caller and defender New York seems likelier to wind up keeping him around. He could eventually move into a depth role as Álvarez gains more defensive experience.

Tim Healey of Newsday first reported Álvarez’s surgery before the team announcement.

Aaron Hicks To Miss Remainder Of Postseason

By | at

The Yankees kept their season alive this evening, knocking off the Guardians 5-1 to take their Division Series in five games. They advance to the AL Championship Series to take on the reigning pennant winners in Houston, starting tomorrow.

While New York is obviously happy to advance, they didn’t come out of today’s contest completely unscathed. Left fielder Aaron Hicks was knocked out of the game in the top of the third after colliding with shortstop Oswaldo Cabrera in pursuit of a shallow fly ball off the bat of Steven Kwan. Hicks left the field with just slight assistance from skipper Aaron Boone, but he suffered a left knee injury that’ll end his playoffs. After the game, Hicks told reporters he’ll need around six weeks to recover (via Pete Caldera of the Bergen Record). Specifics of the injury aren’t clear, but the Yankees announced he was headed for an MRI.

It’s the conclusion of what has been a disappointing season altogether for Hicks. The 33-year-old hit .216/.330/.313 across 453 regular season plate appearances, his second straight below-average campaign. Hicks had been one of the game’s better center fielders from 2017-20, but he’s seen his power production take a sharp downward turn over the last two years. He also got subpar marks for his defense in center field, leading the Yankees to turn to Aaron Judge quite a bit more up the middle than they had in prior years before acquiring Harrison Bader from the Cardinals at the trade deadline.

Hicks was on the bench for the first three games of the Division Series, but he did draw into the lineup for the final two contests. He started in left field for both Game 4 and 5, going hitless with a walk in four plate appearances out of the nine-hole. Cabrera, who’d been the left fielder for the first three games of the series, moved up to shortstop for the final two contests. That pushed Isiah Kiner-Falefa out of the lineup after some defensive miscues in Game 3.

With Hicks out, the Yankees could move Cabrera back to left field and pencil Kiner-Falefa back in at short. They also have Matt Carpenter as a corner outfield option, although Boone indicated before the ALDS he preferred to keep Carpenter as a bench bat during his first action back after a two-month absence due to a foot fracture. Utilityman Marwin González drew an at-bat in relief of Hicks this evening, but the Yankees aren’t likely to give him a playoff start after a .185/.255/.321 showing in the regular season. Designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton is also a possibility to assume some left field work, although it’s not clear whether the Yankees would run the risk of him playing defense for the first time since mid-July.

The Yankees acquired Andrew Benintendi from the Royals to solidify left field, but he’s been out since early September surgery to repair a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist. Boone indicated after tonight’s win he doesn’t anticipate Benintendi being active for the ALCS (via Andy Martino of SNY). The Yankees will have to formally announce their ALCS roster tomorrow, but it seems they’ll have to make due with their in-house outfield options against Houston.

It doesn’t seem likely Hicks’ injury will significantly affect his offseason routine. He’s under contract through 2025 and will presumably get a chance to compete for a starting job next spring, as the Yankees will have a hard time shedding any notable chunk of the $29.5MM that remains on his contract.

Eduard Bazardo Elects Free Agency

By | at

The Red Sox announced this afternoon that right-hander Eduard Bazardo has gone unclaimed on outright waivers and elected free agency, as is his right with multiple career outright assignments. Boston had designated him for assignment last week upon claiming reliever Jake Reed off waivers from the Orioles.

Bazardo made 12 appearances for the Sox down the stretch after being selected to the majors at the start of September. He pitched to a 2.76 ERA over 16 1/3 innings, but he allowed four home runs while only striking out 16.9% of opposing hitters. The front office was clearly skeptical of his ability to continue to allow fewer than three earned runs per nine with those peripherals. He was bumped off the 40-man roster for the sidewinding Reed.

That late-season work was Bazardo’s longest stretch of play in the majors. His only previous big league experience was a two-game cameo in 2021, when he tossed three innings. The Venezuela native has otherwise spent his eight-year professional career climbing through the Boston farm system. He’s spent parts of the last two years at Triple-A Worcester, where he’s worked to a 4.33 ERA with an average 23.1% strikeout rate and a solid 7.7% walk percentage.

As he heads to the open market for the first time in his career, Bazardo represents an affordable option for teams seeking bullpen depth. He’s likely to receive a few minor league offers with big league Spring Training invitations.

The Orioles’ First Key Offseason Decision

By | at

The Orioles enter the offseason fresh off their first winning season since 2016. Baltimore’s surprisingly competitive year wasn’t enough to earn them the longshot playoff bid with which they flirted for a couple months, but they did snap a streak of four consecutive last place finishes during 162-game seasons.

For the first time in a while, the O’s head into the winter looking to build out a promising big league roster. Much of that lifting figures to be on the pitching staff, as Baltimore has broken in a number of players on an increasingly strong position player core. The starting rotation is the big question mark, as it was comprised mainly of unproven hurlers. The Orioles finished 21st in rotation ERA (4.35), and while the group was better at preventing runs in the second half of the season, it never featured impact high-strikeout arms.

Orioles general manager Mike Elias and his front office will surely add to that group this offseason, and the expected arrival of top prospect Grayson Rodriguez early next year will add a high-octane internal arm to the mix. Before considering upgrades, however, the Orioles will have to decide whether to retain their 2022 innings leader. Baltimore holds an $11MM option over right-hander Jordan Lyles. That comes with a $1MM buyout, leaving Elias and his staff with a net $10MM decision.

Lyles agreed to terms on a $7MM guarantee with the O’s in the waning seconds before last offseason’s lockout, finalizing the contract after the work stoppage. It was a somewhat surprising move by Baltimore, with Lyles coming off successive ERA’s of 7.02 and 5.15 during his two seasons with the Rangers. The O’s clearly valued his capacity to soak up innings at the back of a rotation, however, and he stepped back into that role in Baltimore.

The right-hander took all 32 starts through the rotation at Camden Yards, the only pitcher on the team to start more than 23 games. He tossed 179 innings, ranking 29th in the majors in that category. Lyles’ rate stats still weren’t great, but they did mark an improvement over his work in Texas. He posted a 4.42 ERA, striking out a below-average 18.6% of batters faced but only walking 6.7% of opponents. Home run issues that had plagued him in Arlington weren’t nearly as problematic in Baltimore.

It was presumably exactly the kind of performance the Orioles had hoped they’d receive when signing Lyles. The 4.42 ERA is his second-lowest mark over parts of 12 MLB seasons, while he just narrowly missed last year’s career high of 180 innings. A number of Baltimore’s younger pitchers raved throughout the season about Lyles’ clubhouse leadership. It’d have been hard for Elias and company to reasonably expect more from Lyles than what he seemingly provided both on the field and in the locker room.

Between those contributions and Baltimore’s need for rotation help, one can make a reasonable argument for keeping Lyles around. He’d be due a fairly modest raise over this year’s salary, but Elias has already indicated the Orioles plan to increase payroll. The GM pointed at an arbitration class that includes Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays as part of that spending hike, but there’ll still be a ton of room on next year’s books. Aside from the Lyles buyout, the only guaranteed commitment the O’s have for 2023 is a $2.975MM salary for John Means. Tendering contracts to all their arbitration-eligible players would add roughly $22.5MM, according to projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. That should still leave a lot of spending room for a team that, in Elias’ words, should “significantly escalate” payroll over this year’s roughly $44MM Opening Day mark.

Of course, one could argue for the O’s to use the extra $10MM to make a run at a more impactful starter than Lyles. Baltimore will enter next year with more realistic hopes at competing for a playoff spot than they did this past season. While Lyles did provide needed stability, his improved rate stats were still worse than average. The league average starter this year posted a 4.05 ERA with a 21.6% strikeout percentage, both a fair bit better than Lyles’ respective marks. He allowed hard contact at a higher-than-average clip for a fourth straight year.

Lyles also saw slight regression in his raw stuff. He lost a tick on his average fastball, which sat at 91.8 MPH after averaging 93 MPH last year. His breaking ball dipped over three ticks, from 83.3 MPH to 80 MPH. His swing-and-miss rates took a corresponding minor step back.

Free agency offers a number of mid-tier starting pitchers. Jameson Taillon, Mike Clevinger and Noah Syndergaard have all shown well in the past but didn’t post particularly impressive 2022 campaigns. Ross Stripling, José Quintana, Taijuan Walker (who’ll surely decline a $6MM player option with the Mets) and Michael Wacha fared well this year despite subpar strikeout rates, but each had an average or worse ’21 season. Johnny Cueto and Corey Kluber are former stars who each had productive seasons but will be limited to short-term deals based on their ages. There’d be various options for the Orioles to consider if they want to replace Lyles while signing a starter to a contract with an average annual value in the $10MM range, but most of that group would require a multi-year commitment. Whether to retain Lyles is the first major call Elias and his staff will have to make this winter, with option decisions required within five days of the end of the World Series.

Cardinals Sign GM Michael Girsch To Multi-Year Extension

By | at

The Cardinals recently signed general manager Michael Girsch to a multi-year contract extension, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Assistant GM/scouting director Randy Flores also just signed a new multi-year deal, Goold reports, keeping both in the organization beyond 2022.

Both Girsch and Flores had been on expiring deals, so it’s no surprise St. Louis struck to keep each in the fold at this time. Girsch has been in the organization since 2006, working up to AGM by 2011. The Cards promoted him to general manager in 2017, a move made in conjunction with bumping Mozeliak from GM to president of baseball ops. That promotion came with a new contract that kept Girsch in St. Louis through 2020, and he subsequently signed a two-year extension before today’s multi-year pact. It isn’t clear how long the current arrangement runs, but it’ll at least keep Girsch around through 2024.

Girsch has worked as Mozeliak’s top lieutenant for some time, and that arrangement will continue next year and beyond. Mozeliak has final say in baseball operations, but Girsch was sufficiently happy with his role in St. Louis he declined an opportunity to pursue the Mets’ front office vacancy (a position that would’ve come with a chance to lead baseball operations) last offseason. The Notre Dame graduate is clearly content to continue with underneath Mozeliak in the Cardinals’ front office hierarchy. He’ll try to help St. Louis to a fifth consecutive playoff berth this offseason.

Flores, a former big league reliever, was hired as amateur scouting director in August 2015. He began overseeing the team’s drafts the following season, a role he’s now held for seven years. Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan are among St. Louis draftees of the Flores era who played key roles on this year’s NL Central-winning club, and 2020 first-rounder Jordan Walker has blossomed into one of the top few minor league talents in the game. The 47-year-old Flores earned a bump to assistant GM (one of three individuals to hold that title within the Cards’ front office) over the 2018-19 offseason.

The Twins’ Third Base Decision

By | at

The Twins were one of baseball’s most aggressive teams last spring, and they’re in for another active offseason over the coming months. Carlos Correa has already implied he plans to opt out of the final two years of his contract, as expected. How to proceed at shortstop may be the biggest question facing president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and his staff, but they’ll also have a call to make at the other position on the left side of the infield.

This past season, third base was primarily the purview of Gio Urshela. Acquired from the Yankees alongside Gary Sánchez in the deal that offloaded Josh Donaldson’s contract and sent Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the Bronx, Urshela went on to start 131 games at the hot corner in Minneapolis. He stepped to the plate 551 times and hit at a solid .285/.338/.429 clip with 13 home runs and 27 doubles. By measure of wRC+, the Colombia native was 19 percentage points better than the league average hitter.

That represented a bounceback from a pedestrian final season in the Bronx, when Urshela hit .267/.301/.419 through 442 trips to the dish. He didn’t recapture his breakout 2019-20 form — a combined .310/.358/.523 mark — but he no doubt had a productive offensive season. He finished the year well, hitting .294/.343/.419 after the calendar flipped to September. Urshela doesn’t take many walks, but he makes contact at an above-average rate and has enough power to approach or exceed 30 doubles and 15 homers during his best seasons.

While Urshela has been an above-average hitter in three of the past four seasons, his defense draws more variable feedback from public metrics. Ultimate Zone Rating has consistently pegged him as an above-average third baseman, which aligns with the general reputation he’d had as a prospect. Defensive Runs Saved has varied in its enthusiasm for his work but comes in slightly positive overall, while Statcast’s Outs Above Average has rated him as a below-average defender in every season of his career. There’s a fair bit of variability in all public defensive metrics, but Urshela has proven particularly divisive across those measures. Consider his cumulative runs compared to average as a third baseman by each measure since he emerged as a regular with the Yankees in 2019:

  • UZR: +6.4
  • DRS: +5
  • Statcast: -9

The Twins’ internal evaluation of Urshela’s defense could go a long way towards determining how they proceed at third base. The 31-year-old is under club control for another season, and Minnesota could simply pencil him back into the everyday lineup. He’s a valuable player, and there’s something to be said for retaining stability. Yet the Twins will have to weigh his production against a fairly lofty salary; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Urshela to receive roughly $9.2MM for his final year of arbitration eligibility.

That’s certainly not an outlandish figure, particularly if the Twins view Urshela as an above-average defender. At the same time, it’s not a completely insignificant sum for a team that entered this season with a franchise-record payroll in the $134MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Assuming Correa opts out and the Twins exercise their option on Sonny Gray while buying out Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, they’ll head into the offseason with roughly $51MM in guaranteed money on the books, according to Roster Resource. Minnesota’s arbitration class, led by Urshela, is projected for north of $37MM on top of that. Not everyone in the arb group will be tendered contracts — Emilio Pagán is projected for a $3.7MM salary and seems likely to be cut loose — but the Twins could have roughly $84MM in internal expenditures before looking to address shortstop, the bullpen and catcher.

An outright non-tender of Urshela would be a bit surprising. It’s easy to imagine the Twins entertaining trade possibilities, however, particularly with rookie corner infielder José Miranda an option to step in at third base. Miranda has always been a bat-first prospect, and he spent more time at first base than at third during his debut campaign. After hitting .268/.325/.426 through his first 483 MLB plate appearances, the 24-year-old Miranda is guaranteed a regular role somewhere in the lineup. Would the Twins feel comfortable turning to him on an everyday basis at third base, where he spent the majority of his minor league career? That’d leave more first base/DH at-bats for Luis Arraez, who’s not a good defender at either second or third, and potentially clear a path to at-bats for former top prospect Alex Kirilloff. Kirilloff will be returning from a second season decimated by wrist injuries and presumably has to earn his way into the lineup, but he has the offensive potential to do so.

Falvey indicated last week the team was at least open to Miranda playing more third than first moving forward (link via Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic). “We want to keep third base in his mix, for sure,” Falvey said. “We think he can play over there. It just worked out roster-wise that first is where he had to play a lot. I think our best team, our healthiest team, has Jose playing a lot of games at third, and some at first. But we want him to play both corners.”

The Twins’ baseball ops leader didn’t tip his hand as to whether that meant Urshela was likely to be on next year’s roster. “We’ll have some decisions to make, not just on him but a few others in the arbitration space,” Falvey said (via Gleeman). “He finished in a really good spot. He played really well down the stretch, and he was a great teammate, a great person in (the clubhouse). All of those are conversations we’ll start to have as we get closer to November and December.”

If the Twins did make Urshela available via trade (or non-tender), it’s easy to envision a few teams having interest. The D-Backs, Marlins, Cubs, Giants and Tigers could all look for third base help this offseason. There aren’t many obvious solutions available in free agency (particularly if Nolan Arenado sticks with the Cardinals by foregoing his opt-out clause or signing an extension), leaving the Twins to weigh their options with Urshela over the coming weeks.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

By | at

The Reds efforts to slice payroll while remaining at least on the periphery of the Wild Card race fell flat. An 11-game losing streak in April set the stage for what would prove to be a dismal season, with Cincinnati tying the Pirates for the third-worst record in the majors. With questions about the extent of ownership’s desired paring of the payroll, the Reds find themselves without a great path back to contention next year.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Joey Votto, 1B: $32MM through 2023 (including $7MM buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B: $22MM through 2023 (including $4MM buyout of 2024 club option)

Option Decisions

  • Mike Minor, LHP: $13MM mutual option (Royals responsible for $1MM buyout)
  • Justin Wilson, LHP: $1.22MM club option (no buyout)

Total 2023 commitments: $43MM
Total future commitments: $54MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Cessa, Aquino, Buck Farmer, Law, Garcia

Free Agents

The Reds aren’t far removed from their last rebuild. Cincinnati lost 90+ games each season from 2015-18, finishing at the bottom of the NL Central every year. They stockpiled high draft picks along the way, and they began to push forward midway through the 2019 campaign. Despite being out of contention at that year’s deadline, they acquired Trevor Bauer via trade. They followed up by signing Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos to four-year free agent guarantees, setting 2020 as their clear target date for a return to competitiveness.

To a very small extent, the Reds showed some progress that year. They finished 31-29 during the shortened season, qualifying for the expanded playoffs but being swept out of the Wild Card round. Whatever aggressiveness they’d shown the year prior waned in the aftermath of the pandemic season, as the Reds didn’t make any strong efforts to build out the roster over the 2020-21 offseason. They hovered around .500 for most of last year, flirting with Wild Card contention into September but ultimately coming up short. To the dismay of the fanbase, they then set about tearing down the roster as a means of cutting costs.

Over the winter, the Reds shipped out Tucker Barnhart, Wade Miley, Sonny Gray and Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez in a package deal to get out from under the remainder of Suárez’s contract. They watched Castellanos opt out and sign with the Phillies. Cincinnati made a series of late additions, bringing in Tommy Pham, Donovan Solano, Colin Moran and Hunter Strickland on one-year deals and acquiring Mike Minor from the Royals to backfill the rotation. Their host of subtractions left them with no margin for error if they wished to remain competitive, with very little in the way of depth capable of weathering injuries or underperformance from anticipated contributors. The Reds dealt with plenty of both, and the result was a 62-100 season that again leaves the team near the bottom of the majors.

Getting back to competitiveness in 2023 would require an unexpected renewed willingness from ownership to push spending forward, one which doesn’t seem to be on the horizon. Meeting with reporters last week (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer), general manager Nick Krall indicated the team plans to “come into (2023) in a similar place that we are right now.” While Krall called the team’s results “not acceptable” and indicated the club would add to the roster in some capacity, he also suggested the roster would be composed of a number of young players. Most players early in their career, of course, are playing on pre-arbitration or relatively low arbitration salaries, and Nightengale reported the Reds were likely to further slice payroll this offseason.

Cincinnati entered 2022 with a player payroll in the $114MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Midseason trades of Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle only trimmed that further, and Cincinnati is sure to decline its end of a $13MM mutual option on Minor’s services. They only have $43MM in guaranteed money on the books for next season, with the final seasons of the Joey Votto and Moustakas contracts their only commitments. They’ll owe an additional combined $11MM at the end of the year to buy that duo out, leaving the books completely empty going into 2024.

That figure doesn’t include projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players, and the Reds do have 11 players who’ll qualify for that process. Around half that group figures to be non-tendered, though, with utilityman Kyle Farmer headlining the class with a salary in the $6MM range. Even if Cincinnati retains each of Farmer, Nick Senzel, Luis Cessa, Jeff Hoffman, Lucas Sims, Tejay Antone and Justin Dunn, that group shouldn’t combine for much more than $15MM. Precisely where ownership will draw the spending line is unclear, but there should at least be room for a handful of low-cost one-year deals late in the offseason again.

While Krall and his front office will have budgetary constraints in the players they’re targeting, they are free to add at virtually any position on the roster. In his meeting with reporters last week, the front office head suggested nobody has a guaranteed position. “Everyone is going to have to come in and win a roster spot,” Krall said (via Nightengale). “That’s just the way it is. I don’t know if we have a ‘this is going to absolutely be this person’s position on Opening Day.’ I think we have to come in, evaluate where everybody is, and players have to earn those roster spots.”

There’s probably some amount of hyperbole in those comments. It’s hard to envision a scenario where second-year pitchers Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene aren’t in the Opening Day rotation if healthy. Tyler Stephenson will be the #1 catcher, and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India figures to get an opportunity to bounce back from a down ’22 campaign at second base. The Reds do have a few young players who are virtual locks for certain roles to start next season.

To Krall’s point, there aren’t many positions locked down though. Much of the infield is an open question. Votto is a franchise icon and a potential future Hall of Famer, but he hit only .205/.319/.370 over 376 plate appearances before undergoing rotator cuff surgery in August. It’s hard to imagine the Reds taking him out of the primary lineup in what figures to be a non-competitive season regardless, but they could look to curtail his playing time a bit at age 39. Votto is entering the final guaranteed season of the ten-year extension he signed in 2012, and it could well be his final season in a Reds uniform.

India figures to join him on the right side of the infield on most days. The other side of the second base bag is a major question mark. Cincinnati gave some late-season playing time to the combination of José Barrero and Spencer Steer, the latter of whom was acquired from the Twins in the Mahle trade. Both players are 24 years old and came with some top-100 prospect support during their time in the minor leagues. Neither has played well in limited big league time to date. Steer has been below-average, and Barrero had an awful season, both in the majors and at Triple-A.

Steer saw the majority of his time at third base, mixing in some work at first base and at the keystone. Barrero played exclusively at shortstop. Steer has hit well throughout his minor league career and is likely to open the season as the favorite for playing time at the hot corner, but the Reds could start him back in Triple-A Louisville if they feel he’d benefit from further development time. It’s hard to count on Barrero as the Opening Day shortstop after he’s hit .170/.215/.223 through his first 93 big league games. Top prospect Elly De La Cruz has jumped Barrero as the player most likely to be their long-term shortstop. He’ll have to be added to the 40-man roster this winter. De La Cruz isn’t going to start the season in the majors after striking out in more than 30% of his Double-A plate appearances, but he could factor in later in the year. Noelvi Marte is also going to be added to the 40-man this offseason, although he’s yet to reach Double-A and probably won’t play in the majors until 2024 at the earliest.

In the interim, while the Reds would surely love for Barrero to show some of the power-athleticism combination that made him such a well-regarded prospect, they could look to a veteran stopgap at shortstop. Perhaps that’s Kyle Farmer, who has been a capable utility option for two seasons running. The 32-year-old is better suited for a bench role than an everyday job on a contender, but he can hold down shortstop (or third base, if the Reds wanted to give Steer more time in Louisville as well) for a team in transition. There’s a chance the Reds shop Farmer this winter, but he’s projected for a $5.9MM arbitration salary and would have modest trade value after a .255/.315/.386 showing.

Moustakas is also at least a tangential factor in the infield. The veteran left-handed hitter was a productive power bat at his peak, but he’s battled a number of lower half injuries and hit .211/.289/.356 over 491 plate appearances since the start of 2021. One could argue for the Reds to just eat the remainder of Moustakas’ contract and turn his roster spot over to someone else, since they’re certainly not going to be able to shed any notable amount of the $22MM he’s still owed in any event. Yet if he’s still on the roster come Opening Day, Moustakas could find himself in the corner infield/designated hitter mix.

Things aren’t any clearer on the outfield grass. Among players still under club control, Senzel, Aristides Aquino, TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley logged the most outfield action in 2022. Aquino and Senzel again disappointed. Aquino is virtually certain to be non-tendered this offseason. Cincinnati could at least consider the same with Senzel, who now owns a .240/.303/.360 line in over 1000 big league plate appearances. Those rough offensive performances mean he’s projected for a modest $2.2MM arbitration salary, however, and the front office will probably give the former #2 overall pick one more shot. Friedl and Fraley will be back after decent seasons; neither is an obvious everyday player, but each could see fairly regular playing time depending on what other moves the Reds do or do not make.

With both Friedl and Fraley hitting from the left side, a right-handed outfielder could be on the wish list. Chad Pinder, Wil Myers (who’ll be bought out by the Padres), Kevin Pillar and old friend Adam Duvall are among the affordable free agents who’d fit that bill. Pillar and Duvall are both capable of logging some time in center field, although neither is a great defender there at this stage of their careers.

Cincinnati is also likely to bring in a veteran catcher to back up Stephenson. Garcia signed a minor league deal and broke camp last spring, but he didn’t hit well when healthy and lost most of the second half to injury. He’s a non-tender candidate, with the Reds likely to bring in a new experienced backstop to assume a part-time role. Robinson Chirinos, Kevin Plawecki and former Reds Barnhart and Curt Casali are all headed to free agency.

With a number of unproven players likely to assume regular roles, the team will be counting on some to take steps forward. Cincinnati has already parted ways with hitting coach Alan Zinter and will turn to a new voice to guide their young bats. Manager David Bell will return for a fifth season, but a good chunk of his coaching staff will be overhauled.

That’s not the case for pitching coach Derek Johnson and assistant pitching coach Eric Jagers, both of whom are returning. They’ll be working with a number of young players themselves. Lodolo and Greene are former top ten draftees who made their major league debuts early this year. Both missed some time with injuries but showed promise when healthy. Lodolo pitched to a 3.66 ERA with an excellent 29.7% strikeout rate through 19 starts. Greene had a 4.44 ERA as he battled some home run issues, but he punched out 30.9% of batters faced over 24 outings.

They’ll be back at the top of the rotation, and another 2022 rookie could join them in the opening five. Graham Ashcraft made 19 starts this season, pitching fairly well early before tailing off in the final month. He finished with a 4.89 ERA, posting a below-average 15.3% strikeout rate but inducing ground-balls at a stellar 54.5% clip. Ashcraft isn’t a lock for the Opening Day rotation as Lodolo and Greene are, but he looks to have the inside track at a job.

That’s in part a reflection of the uncertainty at the back of the starting staff. Among in-house options, Cessa, Vladimir Gutiérrez, Dunn and Connor Overton led the team in rotation innings. Cessa is a swingman who could be non-tendered. Gutiérrez will miss most or all off next year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Dunn lost most of this season to shoulder issues and hasn’t had much MLB success through three seasons. Overton has bounced between a number of teams as a minor league journeyman. Brandon Williamson, acquired from Seattle in the Winker/Suárez trade, walked more than 14% of opponents at Triple-A. Anyone from that group could compete for innings, but penciling two of them into the season-opening rotation behind Lodolo, Greene and Ashcraft wouldn’t work.

The Reds will probably dip into the lower tiers of the free agent rotation market as a result. Chad Kuhl, Michael Pineda and Trevor Williams are among a host of back-end starters who’d only cost a few million dollars. The Reds’ hitter-friendly home ballpark could work against their efforts to pursue bounceback candidates, but they can promise a fair bit of opportunity.

There’s a chance for a similar low-cost flier in the bullpen. Cincinnati has had one of the league’s worst relief corps over the past couple seasons. Alexis Díaz was one of the team’s few bright spots in 2022, emerging as a late-game weapon. He’s not likely to repeat this year’s 1.84 ERA with how many fly balls he’s surrendered, but he’s a lock for high-leverage work. 2021 breakout hurler Antone missed all of this season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but he should be ready for Opening Day. Sims, Hoffman and Ian Gibaut are among the returning right-handed options, but the Reds could look for a left-hander.

Cincinnati holds a $1.22MM club option over Justin Wilson, but he’s likely to be let go after undergoing Tommy John surgery this June. Reiver Sanmartin is the only southpaw who finished the year in the MLB bullpen. He had a 2.96 ERA and a 54.3% grounder rate, but he had below-average strikeout and walk numbers. Even if the front office doesn’t go into MLB free agency, adding a left-handed bullpen arm via waivers or on a minor league deal is likely to be on the docket.

While Krall and his staff figure to make some small moves, the additions are likely to be around the margins. The 2023 campaign is going to be another trying season, with the Reds seemingly looking to 2024 and beyond as their more realistic window for contention. Cincinnati has stockpiled a decent amount of minor league talent, partially as a result of the deals that have torn down the MLB roster. Shortly after the trade deadline, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN ranked the Reds’ farm system #9 in the majors. As that upper level talent continues to matriculate to the big leagues and hopefully joins Stephenson, India, Lodolo and Greene, Cincinnati can begin to see their next contending core.

That’ll coincide with the removal of the Votto and the Moustakas contracts from the books. The long-term financial flexibility could allow them to explore extension talks with any of their intriguing young players who are already at the big league level this winter. Even if nothing comes together on that front, it should afford the front office some freedom after 2023 to attack some of the roster’s weaknesses with more urgency. There are glimmers of long-term hope for Cincinnati, but the fanbase looks to be in for another frustrating offseason and rough year before that hope can materialize into legitimate success.

15 Players Elect Free Agency

By | at

As the postseason rolls along, players hit minor league free agency daily. It’s customary each offseason for dozens of players to hit the open market, separate from the players who reach MLB free agency at the end of the World Series based on the expiration of their contracts while having six-plus years of MLB service time.

Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of MLB service, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minor leagues has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group falls under that umbrella. The majority will take minor league deals over the winter, although one or two could find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.

MLBTR covered 34 players who qualified for minor league free agency last week. We’ll periodically provide updates as plenty more hit the open market, as reflected on the MiLB.com transactions log.

Pitchers

Infielders

Outfielders

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top