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Starting Pitching Options For The Blue Jays

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 2, 2012 at 10:53pm CDT

Alex Anthopoulos hasn't committed more than $3.75MM to any free agent since becoming the Blue Jays' general manager more than two years ago. He has downplayed the likelihood of a substantial increase in payroll this offseason and the Blue Jays don’t appear to be especially interested in free agent right-handers Hiroki Kuroda, Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. In other words, it’ll be a surprise if the Jays sign one of the top available free agent starters before Opening Day.

It’s not clear how the Blue Jays intend to bolster their starting corps, but it’s no secret they could use rotation help heading into the 2012 season. Ricky Romero leads a rotation that will likely include Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil and Henderson Alvarez. To compete in the stacked American League East, they’ll probably need reinforcements.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained earlier today, there are many lower-tier free agents who represent buy-low opportunities for teams like the Blue Jays. It’s not clear whether the Blue Jays believe free agents such as Paul Maholm, Joe Saunders and Jeff Francis could thrive in a division that includes two of the game's most potent offenses. None of the three left-handers averaged a 90 mph fastball or struck out more than 5.4 batters per nine innings in 2011, though they all pitched at least 160 innings.

Free agent right-hander Bartolo Colon could appeal to the Blue Jays on a one-year deal, but only if the front office is willing to overlook a pedestrian second half that included two ugly starts in Toronto. There’s also Rich Harden, the British Columbia native who posted 9.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 15 starts for the Athletics. It appears unlikely either Colon or Harden would require a major financial commitment, but both have histories of health issues that could reduce Toronto’s interest. 

Anthopoulos has averaged roughly one trade per month since becoming the team’s GM in 2009, so it’s safe to say he’s eyeing the trade market and it's likely he's looking beyond highly publicized trade targets like Matt Garza (he’s not likely to join Toronto’s rotation, according to Rosenthal). Since 2010, the Blue Jays have orchestrated deals involving Sergio Santos, Vernon Wells and Yunel Escobar without much advance notice, giving Toronto fans reason to expect the unexpected.

It appears that Jair Jurrjens, Gavin Floyd, Jon Niese, Chris Volstad, Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers could be obtained for the right combination of prospects and salary relief. Should Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Matt Harrison, Colby Lewis or Brandon McCarthy become available, the Blue Jays may inquire. The same goes for Tampa Bay starters such as James Shields, not that obtaining a top pitcher from a division rival is ever easy.

There’s also the possibility that the Blue Jays will open Spring Training without having added a high-profile arm to the rotation. Kyle Drabek could start in the Majors if he regains his command. Dustin McGowan and Aaron Laffey could compete for rotation spots in Spring Training. Prospects such as Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins could get looks in the rotation at some point. Relievers Carlos Villanueva, Luis Perez and Jesse Litsch started games last year and could re-emerge as rotation candidates.

Recent history suggests Anthopoulos prefers the trade market to the free agent market, the Blue Jays could use a starting pitcher and they have a deep farm system. It's tempting to assume the Blue Jays will trade for a starter in the coming weeks, but after a winter's worth of Gio Gonzalez and Yu Darvish rumors, Blue Jays fans know that predicting their team's next move remains as difficult as ever.

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Toronto Blue Jays

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Heyman On Garza, Jackson, Varitek

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 2, 2012 at 9:25pm CDT

The Yankees and Red Sox have approached the offseason with uncharacteristic restraint — at least so far. Freddy Garcia ($4MM deal with the Yankees) and Nick Punto ($3MM deal with the Red Sox) represent their most extravagant open market expenditures of the winter (though the Yankees did lock C.C. Sabathia up to an extension). Here’s the latest on the longtime American League rivals from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com:

  • The Yankees “desperately seek” a number two starter, according to Heyman. Edwin Jackson and Matt Garza may be more likely targets than Hiroki Kuroda, Jair Jurrjens, Wandy Rodriguez, Gavin Floyd and Roy Oswalt. The Yankees like Jackson’s arm, potential and durability, though they wonder about his consistency. However, they would like to keep new contracts to one or two years and Jackson seeks a five-year deal in the $60MM range.
  • The Yankees also like Garza, who can be retained through 2013 via arbitration.
  • The Red Sox are still considering a new contract for Jason Varitek, Heyman reports. The Red Sox value his contributions and haven’t ruled out a reunion, despite the presence of catchers Kelly Shoppach, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ryan Lavarnway on the roster. "Our hope is that Tek will always be a part of the Red Sox in some way," GM Ben Cherington told reporters last month.
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Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Edwin Jackson Jason Varitek Matt Garza

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Braves Notes: Ross, Theriot, Pastornicky, Bourn

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 2, 2012 at 8:18pm CDT

The Braves have had a relatively quiet offseason so far, as MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker shows. Their biggest move of the winter was sending Derek Lowe to the Indians for salary relief, but they could still use shortstop depth and may bolster their outfield before Opening Day. David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has the latest rumors on the team:

  • The Braves still have at least some interest in free agent outfielder Cody Ross, according to O’Brien. However, they’d want his asking price — currently in the two-year, $10MM range — to drop. The Rockies and Reds have also been linked to Ross this offseason.
  • There’s a “decent chance” the Braves wait to obtain a shortstop/utility infielder and see who becomes available in Spring Training. As for rumors linking the Braves to free agent infielder Ryan Theriot, O’Brien suggests the team’s interest was “overstated” and points out that GM Frank Wren will likely look for a strong defensive shortstop.
  • The Braves will likely start Tyler Pastornicky at short, partly because they’re eager to add his speed to the lineup.
  • The Braves haven’t started extension talks with Michael Bourn. The Scott Boras client is set to hit free agency after the 2012 season.
  • There are no indications that Liberty Media intends to sell the Braves soon.
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Atlanta Braves Cody Ross Michael Bourn Ryan Theriot

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AL East Notes: Orioles, Kuroda, Nakajima, Guthrie

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 2, 2012 at 8:17pm CDT

On this date in 1996, the Red Sox signed veteran left-hander Jamie Moyer, who at that time had a 4.51 ERA in 1116 2/3 MLB innings over the course of nine MLB seasons. Though he appeared in just 23 games for Boston, he enjoyed a career renaissance in Seattle and hasn't stopped yet. Moyer, now 49, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and has drawn some interest from MLB teams. Here's the latest on the AL East…

  • The Orioles are expected to hire former Mets, Brewers and Athletics pitching coach Rick Peterson as an organizational pitching guru this week, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.
  • The Red Sox have maintained interest in Hiroki Kuroda, but his asking price figures to exceed Boston’s budget unless they make another move to free up payroll, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. Kuroda is open to pitching on the East Coast, Bradford notes.
  • The Yankees have until Friday to negotiate a deal with Japanese infielder Hiroyuki Nakajima and the sides continue discussing possible contracts, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. Earlier reports had suggested the deadline was Tuesday, rather than Friday. Depending on whether the Yankees sign Nakajima, they could have interest in bringing back Eric Chavez or trading Eduardo Nunez. 
  • Orioles right-hander Jeremy Guthrie told Jeff Joyce and Todd Hollandsworth on MLB Network Radio that he hopes trade rumors surround him next year, since other teams won't be interested if he's pitching poorly. Guthrie is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility and will hit free agency after the 2012 campaign.  
  • Jason Frasor says he was confused when he saw Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos had texted him over the weekend, according to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star. "I thought he might have wanted to talk,” Frasor said. “He likes to talk. He's a talker." In fact, the GM was calling about the trade that sent Frasor back to the Blue Jays for Myles Jaye and Daniel Webb. Frasor's optimistic that Sergio Santos, his teammate in the minors and majors, will fit well in Toronto.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays Hiroki Kuroda Hiroyuki Nakajima Jason Frasor Jeremy Guthrie

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Blue Jays Unlikely To Acquire Matt Garza

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 2, 2012 at 5:51pm CDT

The Blue Jays continue exploring ways of improving their rotation, but they’re unlikely to acquire Matt Garza from the Cubs, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Garza is under team control through 2013 and the Blue Jays are wary of trading top prospects for a relatively short-term addition. There doesn't appear to be a leading suitor for the right-hander at the moment, but the Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox and Marlins appear to be in the mix to acquire him.

The Blue Jays don’t appear to be especially interested in free agent right-handers Hiroki Kuroda and Roy Oswalt and they’re unlikely to pursue Edwin Jackson, Rosenthal reports. Agent Scott Boras seeks a five-year deal for Jackson, but Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos has avoided major free agent expenditures since his hiring more than two years ago.

Toronto’s projected rotation includes Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil and Henderson Alvarez. Dustin McGowan, Carlos Villanueva and Aaron Laffey are others who could compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. The Blue Jays expect to consider prospects Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire and Chad Jenkins for promotions in 2012, Rosenthal writes.

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Chicago Cubs Toronto Blue Jays Edwin Jackson Hiroki Kuroda Matt Garza Roy Oswalt

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Padres Notes: Quentin, Maybin, Zumaya, Venable

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 2, 2012 at 4:28pm CDT

The Padres have already pulled off two major offseason trades under GM Josh Byrnes, sending Mat Latos to Cincinnati and obtaining Carlos Quentin from the White Sox. “We’re not in total go-for-it mode, but we can make some choices,” Byrnes said, according to Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Here are details from Center’s recent look ahead to the rest of the San Diego’s offseason: 

  • The Padres acquired Quentin from the White Sox with the notion that they could extend him, Byrnes said. 
  • The Padres have already discussed signing Cameron Maybin to a deal that would buy out one or two of his free agent years, according to Center. We heard late in December that the Padres were set to re-start contract talks with the center fielder, who’s on track to hit free agency after 2015.
  • No payroll model would have allowed the Padres to re-sign Adrian Gonzalez for $20-25MM per season, according to Byrnes. Former Padres GM Jed Hoyer dealt Gonzalez to Boston for prospects Casey Kelly, Reymond Fuentes and Anthony Rizzo last offseason. 
  • The Padres were reluctant to offer Heath Bell a third year this offseason, Center writes.
  • The Padres could sign a pitcher or two before Spring Training and San Diego native Joel Zumaya is high on Byrnes’ wish list, Center notes. 
  • Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner would like to see the Mariners pursue Will Venable, "probably one of the more underrated players in the sport."
  • The Padres figured prominently on Tim Dierkes' list of the offseason's most surprising trades so far.
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Uncategorized Adrian Gonzalez Cameron Maybin Carlos Quentin Heath Bell Joel Zumaya

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The Convergence Of MLB And The NBA

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | December 30, 2011 at 10:30pm CDT

What MLB can tell us about the NBA and vice versa. GMs from both sports offer insight to MLBTR. 

When he was growing up in Massachusetts, long before he was paid to run a sports team, Sam Presti looked forward to nationally televised baseball games each week. Baseball runs in the water where Presti comes from, and the weekly contests featured players he didn’t see on his visits to Fenway Park. 

“We didn’t have cable and it was my chance to see National League teams that I never got to see,” he told me earlier this year. “I loved watching the Expos teams and the Cardinals, since I was introduced to a whole new group of players.” 

Today, Presti’s interest in baseball persists, albeit in a new way. The 35-year-old general manager of the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder still follows baseball for the enjoyment of the sport. But he also watches with a sense of curiosity and competitiveness that he shares with a growing number of his peers around the NBA. Perhaps, their thinking goes, basketball teams can learn from baseball’s brightest minds and best-run franchises.

It’s not that Presti’s teams have failed to compete in the NBA. Led by Kevin Durant (pictured), the second overall pick in the 2007 draft, the team finished its most recent campaign with a 55-27 record. Before joining the Thunder, Presti worked for the San Antonio Spurs, one of the league’s most successful franchises, and was instrumental in the acquisition of point guard Tony Parker. So when Presti chats with MLB executives — and he knows his share of them — we can be sure he isn’t quizzing them on Russell Westbrook's court vision or Kendrick Perkins' defense. Instead, he looks to baseball people for insight on topics that apply to both sports.

Kevin Durant“More than anything I think it helps you ask the right questions,” Presti said. “Questions about your game, your systems, your processes. I think that it’s healthy for us to ask the right questions. I think any time you’re watching another sport it definitely helps your imagination and creativity.”

There’s no shortage of creativity in today’s NBA. Many teams use objective analysis to supplement scouting reports and make decisions regarding personnel and strategy. For example, the perennially competitive Houston Rockets named Daryl Morey their general manager in 2007. A computer science graduate who grew up reading Bill James, Morey’s thirst for knowledge extends beyond the basketball court.

In that respect, he has a lot in common with Sam Hinkie. Now the Rockets’ executive VP of basketball operations, Hinkie works with Morey to construct the team’s roster, develop in-game strategies, and communicate with coaches. Before joining the Rockets, Hinkie consulted for two NFL teams, so he’s intimately familiar with the potential impact of inter-sport comparisons.

“There’s very little sharing that goes on within our sport for good reason,” Hinkie told me. “Every team is trying to do something and any foothold they might find, they don’t want to point out to anyone else.” 

But when it comes to sharing information across sports, teams aren’t so secretive. The resulting openness would be unthinkable within a single sport. And the big-picture topics sports executives explore with one another can have a significant impact on wins and losses. The potential for discussion is limitless.

“Psychology of individual players, how to prevent injuries, how to foster innovation within your organization in general, strength training,” Hinkie explains. “In a five minute conversation you pick up a lot where you think ‘that’s what they do, we should investigate more because it’s a similar challenge to the one we face.’”

In other words, they aren’t sharing statistical formulae — those wouldn’t actually apply to other sports — but the conversations are productive regardless. For example, Morey stays in touch with Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, who says sharing information across sports is considerably easier than doing so within MLB.

“No question,” he said. “Because if you have a good relationship with an executive in another sport and you talk about something technological it’s not going to impact his sport. I think it is sometimes easier.”

However, the search for a competitive advantage extends beyond the quest for more sophisticated technology and metrics. There’s meaning in statistics, as the modern-day fan and executive knows. Explaining this knowledge to the decision makers and players represents another challenge altogether.

“It’s being able to communicate those ideas to our coaches and our players as we try to actually take those ideas and drive changes,” Hinkie said. “I think [communication] is under-invested in, honestly. The quality of an idea relies heavily on your ability to get that point across.”

To suggest that basketball teams look up to baseball teams would be inaccurate. Though Bill James and others championed alternative thinking in baseball before similar movements gathered support in other sports, NBA teams have since developed advanced metrics of their own. But innovation in basketball often takes place privately, whereas there’s a tradition of public-sphere baseball analysis. 

Though crunching the numbers can be productive, execs can also learn from sports other than their own by watching the athletes themselves. Certain body types and skillsets thrive on a baseball diamond, while others are better suited to the basketball court, the hockey rink, or the cubicle. 

When Alex Anthopoulos watches athletes in other professional sports, he isn’t necessarily looking for the next Bo Jackson or Danny Ainge (Ainge, a former Blue Jays infielder and NBA guard who has become the Celtics’ GM, employs an analytically minded assistant GM in Boston). Anthopoulos’ scouting skills are unpolished when it comes to basketball or football, but he watches the sports nonetheless.

“I love scouting. I love evaluating. I love analyzing,” the Blue Jays GM told me. “I’m analytical probably to a fault. I probably overdo it at times. So I try to watch those other sports through a scouting lens even though I don’t know what I’m doing. I don’t know how to scout other sports.”

Not that it stops Anthopoulos from watching (he’s reportedly friendly with Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke, who also knows Hoyer). Even if he’s not a professional basketball scout, Anthopoulos can apply general scouting principles to sports other than baseball.

“I try to incorporate things that I incorporate in baseball,” he said. “So if I’m watching basketball, I’ll look at athleticism, body control. You have a delivery and arm action if you pitch. I look at your motion in the NBA, how you shoot, what your mechanics are, how that may impact the rotation and spin on the ball.”

It’s not just business, though. As a general rule, sports executives have the jobs they have because they enjoy sports immensely. But one of those sports has become a job, so watching other leagues can be way of enjoying competition for its own sake.

“I’m a sports fan,” Hoyer explained. “I enjoy watching other sports, since it’s not baseball — it’s not work, and I can be on the couch and enjoy myself watching a college basketball game or a football game.”

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

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Uncategorized

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Orioles Interested In Joe Saunders

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | December 29, 2011 at 3:08pm CDT

The Orioles have had several conversations with Joe Saunders' representatives, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (on Twitter). Legacy Sports represents the left-hander, who is a Falls Church, VA native.

Saunders, 30, posted a 3.69 ERA with 4.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 44.5% ground ball rate in 212 innings this past season. He has averaged 200 innings per season since 2008 without striking out more than five batters per nine innings in any of the past four seasons. The former 12th overall pick had an average fastball velocity of 89.6 mph in 2011.

The Rockies, Marlins, Red Sox and Tigers also appear to have some interest in Saunders, who was non-tendered by the Diamondbacks earlier in the month. Saunders and Jeremy Guthrie would provide the Orioles with a pair of solid but unspectacular innings eaters atop their rotation. Tsuyoshi Wada, Tommy Hunter, Zach Britton, Brian Matusz and Dana Eveland are other possibilities for Baltimore's rotation.

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Baltimore Orioles Joe Saunders

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Poll: Which Team Will Sign Ryan Madson?

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | December 29, 2011 at 2:47pm CDT

Ryan Madson probably lost another potential suitor when the Red Sox traded for Andrew Bailey. The Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets and Padres are among the other possible Madson suitors that have acquired other closers this offseason. However, the Angels, Reds, Rays, White Sox, Astros and Dodgers could be in the market for closers, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter) and I’ll add the Orioles to the list of potentially interested clubs.

Madson won't come cheap, of course. He appeared to be close to signing a $44MM contract with the Phillies early in the offseason, and the non-deal gives us a sense of agent Scott Boras’ asking price. Though the market for closers doesn’t currently seem strong, we shouldn't forget that Boras found a three-year deal for Rafael Soriano last offseason, after demand for closers appeared to have diminished.

Madson’s the best free agent reliever remaining; where will he sign?

 

Which team will sign Ryan Madson?
Angels 31.78% (4,397 votes)
Other 20.76% (2,873 votes)
Reds 18.10% (2,505 votes)
Orioles 7.70% (1,066 votes)
Dodgers 7.18% (994 votes)
Rays 6.40% (886 votes)
White Sox 5.83% (807 votes)
Astros 2.23% (309 votes)
Total Votes: 13,837
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MLBTR Polls Ryan Madson

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Red Sox Notes: Kalish, Bailey, Reddick

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | December 29, 2011 at 2:24pm CDT

The Red Sox obtained Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney from the Athletics yesterday, sending Josh Reddick, Miles Head and Raul Alcantara to Oakland. Here's the latest on the Red Sox as reaction to and analysis of the trade continues…

  • Ryan Kalish says he had left shoulder surgery in November in addition to his September neck operation, according to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. Kalish may be ready for game action by May or June, but he doesn’t have a clear timetable. The Red Sox have Sweeney and Darnell McDonald in right, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them pursue other options.
  • The Red Sox never got the sense that Ryan Madson’s price was going to drop enough to make him a viable option, tweets Rob Bradford of WEEI.com.
  • Bailey would have been traded to Texas if the Red Sox hadn't included Reddick in the deal, Peter Gammons of MLB Network tweets.
  • The Red Sox are now shooting for a starter, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Heyman lists Hiroki Kuroda, Matt Garza, Roy Oswalt, Joe Saunders and Edwin Jackson as possibilities.
  • Red Sox director of player development Ben Crockett told FanGraphs' David Laurila that Head can hit despite the fact that "he's not going to win any beauty contests." Jim Callis of Baseball America told Laurila that Head's stocky frame makes him difficult to project. "I do think he can hit, but he’s limited to playing first base and you just don’t see that many 5'10", 5'11" first basemen in the big leagues," he said.
  • ESPN.com's Keith Law says Oakland got fair value for Bailey, whose health is an unknown, and Sweeney, whose raw power hasn't translated during games. Reddick provides the Athletics with additional years of control and Head and Alcantara could also prove useful. However, the Red Sox aren't likely to miss the trio of players they gave up and they obtained a proven closer.
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Athletics Boston Red Sox Andrew Bailey Josh Reddick Ryan Kalish Ryan Madson

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