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Andruw Jones Likely To Retire

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Veteran outfielder Andruw Jones says he will soon announce his retirement, Cory McCartney of FOX Sports South tweets. In November, Jones had reportedly been hoping to sign with an MLB team, but it appears likely he’ll hang up his cleats instead.

MLB: New York Yankees at Boston Red SoxIt’s been awhile since Jones has played in the Majors, of course — he last appeared in the big leagues with the Yankees in 2012. After that, he played two seasons with Rakuten in Japan. He did not play last season.

The MLB team with which Jones will be most strongly associated, of course, is the Braves, for whom he played from 1996 through 2007, joining Chipper Jones, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux in a group of elite players on a long string of highly successful Braves teams. (As Sports Illustrated’s Jay Jaffe tweets, Andruw and Chipper will both be eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2018.)

After emerging as a consensus top prospect in the Braves’ farm system, Andruw debuted with Atlanta at the tender age of 19 and soon became one of baseball’s top outfielders, creating tremendous value with both his outstanding defense and his power. Beginning in 1998, Jones won ten straight Gold Gloves for his work in center field. He also quickly became a serious home run threat, hitting 26 or more homers in nine straight seasons and peaking with a remarkable 51-homer performance in 2005, when he finished second in NL MVP balloting.

After the 2007 season, when he was still just 30, he left Atlanta and began an itinerant phase of his career, playing for the Dodgers, Rangers and White Sox before heading to the Bronx for two seasons. He declined steeply in his early thirties as his ability to hit for average rapidly diminished, although he did hit well in his two seasons in Japan.

Jones finishes his 17-season big-league career with a .254/.337/.486 line, 434 career homers and five All-Star appearances. Via Baseball Reference, his career Defensive WAR of 24.1 ranks 20th all-time. He made upwards of $130MM in his baseball career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

White Sox Notes: Free Agents, Draft Picks, LaRoche

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Via Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune, here are a few notes from White Sox GM Rick Hahn, who spoke to fans at the team’s SoxFest yesterday.

  • Kane writes that although the White Sox have added Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie and others this offseason, much of the discussion Friday focused on players the White Sox have missed on, particularly Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon and Justin Upton. Hahn says the White Sox were aggressive with free agent targets they ultimately missed out on. “Any of these players who decide ultimately they want to return to where they came from, I have to respect that and tip my hat to them,” he said, perhaps referring to Gordon and/or Cespedes. “It doesn’t mean we’re not going to continue to try to get it done.”
  • Dexter Fowler and Ian Desmond remain on the free agent market, and it appears either one could help the White Sox. One potential problem for Chicago, though, is that both players rejected qualifying offers. The Sox’ top pick in the tenth overall and will therefore be protected, but the Sox also currently have the No. 28 pick as compensation for the loss of Jeff Samardzija. “The draft pick has real value,” said Hahn. “A couple of million dollars worth of pool money, which allows you to be flexible with that draft pick or pay some forward or pay some back. … At some level, you balance the ability to improve this club versus the long-term impact that losing a pick like that would have.”
  • White Sox manager Robin Ventura says Adam LaRoche will have to win the starting DH job in Spring Training, Kane tweets. The 36-year-old LaRoche is coming off a miserable .207/.293/.340 2015 season in which, considering his lack of defensive value, he was arguably one of the least productive everyday players in the Majors. Of course, as Kane implies, the question is who might replace him if the White Sox decide he’s not worthy of regular playing time.

Reactions To The Corey Dickerson Trade

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Here’s a roundup of links on the Rays’ recent acquisition of Corey Dickerson and minor league third baseman Kevin Padlo from the Rockies for Jake McGee and pitching prospect German Marquez.

  • Dickerson adds to what’s becoming a large collection of candidates to play outfield, first base and DH for the Rays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. That group includes Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier, Desmond Jennings, Steven Souza, Brandon Guyer, James Loney, Steve Pearce and Logan Morrison. Of those, Dickerson, Pearce and Morrison are new additions, and Jennings essentially will be a new addition as well, having missed most of the 2015 season due to a knee injury. “It’s hard to predict how it’s going to actually turn out, but having this group gives us a lot of confidence that we’re going to score the runs that we need to this year,” says Rays president of baseball operations Matt Silverman.
  • Rockies GM Jeff Bridich says that, in addition to adding a potential closer in McGee, they’ve improved their defense and baserunning by replacing Dickerson with Gerardo Parra, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes. Of course, they’ll be losing Dickerson and his career .299/.345/.534 line, a good one even in Colorado. “Offensively, I’m not sure how it improves our outfield,” Bridich says. “Corey is a very talented offensive player. The things he always needed to work on at the major-league level were his outfield defense and his baserunning. And I think those two places are two places of strength for Gerardo.”
  • Dickerson for McGee is a “weird trade” from the Rockies’ perspective, FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes. The Rockies are giving up four years of control of a talented young hitter in exchange for two years of a reliever, and they could have moved Dickerson to first base, where they have a vacancy. And adding a short-term relief acquisition makes little sense for a team that doesn’t seem poised to contend, Cameron argues. For the Rays, Dickerson wasn’t exactly a necessity, but they added talent in the deal and can figure out what to do with their OF/1B/DH surplus later.

AL Notes: Bullpens, Perez, Rays

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The Yankees and Red Sox are among the seven teams this offseason that kept their closer but also added another team’s closer, ESPN’s Jayson Stark writes. “It’s been the wave. Let’s face it,” says Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who made a huge trade for Craig Kimbrel in November. “A lot of clubs have improved the depth in their bullpen. And it has paid off.” Of course, the most recent template for this kind of bullpen stockpiling came from the Royals, who rode a weak rotation and a dominant bunch of late-inning relievers to a World Series win last season. But Royals assistant GM J.J. Picollo points out that the Reds’ “Nasty Boys” bullpen of a quarter-century ago was similarly potent. “We didn’t invent this,” he says. “[W]e just stumbled upon it.” Here’s more from the American League.

  • Royals catcher Salvador Perez confirms that he and his team have been working on an extension, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com writes. Jon Heyman reported earlier this week that the two sides were working on a new deal. “I got my agents they are talking to. We’ll see,” says Perez. “We have to wait for it. I’m happy either way. I’m happy no matter what. I’m here to play the game.” Perez, of course, is signed to one of baseball’s most team-friendly contracts — he’s set to make just $2MM next season and then has three club options after that, none of them exceeding $6MM.
  • The Rays’ offseason moves have focused on fixing an offense that finished 14th in the AL in runs scored last season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The team’s recent additions of Corey Dickerson and Steve Pearce (to go along with Brad Miller and Logan Morrison, who they’d previously acquired) give the Rays a wider variety of offensive options. It remains to be seen, however, how they’ll deploy them. As Topkin points out, one victim of all the Rays’ additions could be first baseman James Loney. With Desmond Jennings, Kevin Kiermaier and Steven Souza in the outfield, Dickerson could play DH while Pearce and Morrison share first base.

Week In Review: 1/23/16 – 1/29/16

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Here’s a look back at the past week at MLBTR.

Key Moves

Arbitration

Signings / Re-signings

Extensions

Trades

Claimed

Designated For Assignment

Outrighted

Key Minor League Signings

Royals Sign Ian Kennedy

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11:40am: MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets that if Kennedy does opt out after two years, he receives a $6MM buyout, so he would actually be opting out of three years and $43MM, as opposed to three years and $49MM.

11:17am: After reportedly agreeing to a deal nearly two weeks ago, the Royals announced on Friday that they have signed right-hander Ian Kennedy to a five-year contract. The Scott Boras client will reportedly be guaranteed a total of $70MM and is said to have secured an opt-out clause that would allow him to re-enter the free agent market after the 2017 season. Kennedy’s contract, however, is significantly backloaded; he’ll earn $7.5MM in 2016 and $13.5MM in 2017, meaning he’d have to forgo a guaranteed $49MM from 2018-20 in order to again test free agency (entering his age-33 season).

USATSI_8681971_154513410_lowresKennedy notably rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres earlier this offseason, a decision that now looks astute, as he will receive a lucrative long-term deal despite a somewhat sketchy recent history and the fact that he’ll cost his new team a top draft pick. Kennedy posted mediocre numbers in 2015, with a solid 9.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 but with a 4.28 ERA and 31 home runs allowed in 168 1/3 innings.

Kennedy did allow only 11 homers in the second half versus 20 in the first. His home run totals throughout the 2015 season were also perhaps somewhat high given his underlying numbers, and he had a strong season in San Diego in 2014. But his struggles to control the long ball last year were still hard to ignore.

Kennedy’s qualifying offer, his underwhelming performance and the large number of good free agent pitchers available did not prevent him from receiving a lucrative contract, however. And the opt-out is icing on the cake, adding considerable value to the deal by potentially giving Kennedy one more chance to land a big free agent contract at age 33, should his first two years in Kansas City go well. Opt-outs have, of course, become increasingly common this winter, and even a non-top-tier free agent in Scott Kazmir received one. But it’s still a bit surprising that Kennedy would get one on a $70MM deal, as the financial outlay of the deal looks rather generous even before considering the opt-out.

For the Royals, the appeal of adding a starting pitcher is obvious. Despite winning the World Series in 2015, the team’s 4.34 rotation ERA was fourth-worst in the American League. They had not yet significantly upgraded that rotation this offseason, and they projected to open with a staff consisting of Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, Kris Medlen, Danny Duffy and veteran Chris Young. Kennedy should, at the very least, significantly improve their rotation depth.

To some extent, also, K.C. is betting that there’s positive regression to come. Metrics such as SIERA (3.61 last year) could be a better gauge of Kennedy’s true talent than his underwhelming earned run average. His weaknesses might also be somewhat minimized in Kansas City. While Kauffman Stadium is by no means a pitcher’s park, it does limit home runs, and the Royals’ strong outfield defense should help Kennedy turn his fly balls into outs.

But the organization is also simply continuing a well-established strategy of seeking durability in its starters, as it has in the past with pitchers like Edinson Volquez, Jason Vargas, and Jeremy Guthrie. Kennedy has made at least thirty starts in every season dating back to 2010. Though he hasn’t always reached 200 innings annually, the length of his outings is probably of less importance to the Royals — with their deep and excellent pen — than is his ability to take the ball every fifth day.

The deal also marks somewhat of a milestone for the Royals, who appear to be heading into 2016 with a set of commitments that are, for them, unprecedented. With Alex Gordon now back under contract, Kansas City already had $113MM in commitments. Add in Mike Moustakas’ as-yet-undetermined arbitration-year salary and Kennedy’s deal, and the Royals’ 2016 Opening Day payroll could top $130MM, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That figure will fly past their $113MM Opening Day payroll in 2015, to say nothing of their series of eight-figure Opening Day payrolls before that.

For yet more evidence of Kansas City’s enhanced willingness and ability to spend, it bears noting that Kennedy becomes the second record-breaking deal the organization has struck this winter. Gordon’s contract was (and still is) the largest single obligation ever entered into the Royals’ payroll ledger, topping the much earlier Mike Sweeney and Gil Meche contracts, while Kennedy takes over for Meche with the team’s top overall commitment to a pitcher.

Due to the qualifying offer, the Royals will give up the No. 24 overall pick in the draft. The Padres will receive a pick at the end of the first round.

Jon Heyman first reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter link). ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported the opt-out clause (also via Twitter). Heyman later added further details on the contract’s backloaded nature (Twitter link).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Best $100MM+ Hitting Contract

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Six weeks ago, Jeff Todd asked MLBTR readers which of the four nine-figure contracts given to pitchers this offseason was the best. 37.6% of you said you preferred Jordan Zimmermann’s deal — the cheapest of the four.

Of course, Jeff couldn’t ask a similar question about contracts for hitters, because the only hitter to agree to a deal over $100MM to that point was Jason Heyward. The hitting market was slow in coming, but now, finally, there have been two other hitters to cross the nine-figure threshold.

Heyward’s deal was the most expensive, at $184MM, although deferrals reduce its present-day value to about $5MM less than that. The deal also contains an opt-out after 2018, and possibly another after 2019 if he stays healthy. He also receives full or limited no-trade protection throughout the contract. Heyward is, of course, highly talented and very young and athletic for a free agent, but in a poll following the announcement of the deal, most MLBTR readers thought the Cubs overpaid.

The Orioles’ Chris Davis received somewhat less than Heyward, at $161MM and with very significant deferrals. He gets a partial no-trade clause but does not receive an opt-out. Davis is over three years older than Heyward and his skill set isn’t nearly as well rounded, which could lead to reasonable questions about how he’ll age over the life of the deal. Davis’ power is, however, second to none.

Justin Upton’s $132.75MM contract with the Tigers is the most recent of the three.  Upton gets an opt-out after 2017, as well as limited no-trade protection. He’s between Heyward and Upton in age. He doesn’t have Heyward’s defensive or baserunning value, and he doesn’t have Davis’ power either, but he’s blossomed into a reliable offensive threat, and his deal is a considerably smaller commitment than Heyward’s, at least.

Davis’ deal might be the riskiest of the three, given his age and issues with strikeouts. But one could argue that there’s more upside in Davis’ deal, too, given that he does not have an opt-out. What you think about the Heyward deal likely depends to some degree on how you weight defense in your assessment of a player’s value (and in your assessment of how he’ll age). Upton’s skill set is perhaps the easiest of the three to grasp — he’s a good, consistent power hitter who gets on base and plays decent defense in an outfield corner. He hasn’t yet blossomed into the MVP-type player he looked like he might be when he was a prospect, although he’s young enough that we might not have seen the best of him yet.

So which of these contracts is the best bet?

Quick Hits: Cars, Opt-Outs, DH

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Here are MLBTR, we routinely toss around dollar figures in the tens or hundreds of millions in reference to players’ salaries. It’s rare, though, that we get as clear a glimpse into what those tens or hundreds of millions can actually buy as we do in this look at MLB players’ cars, courtesy of Tim Rohan of the New York Times. Specifically, Rohan profiles Alex Vega, who owns a custom car shop in the Miami area. Vega frequently works with baseball players during the offseason, because, he says, “Spring training is when business gets the craziest because everybody wants to show up with something new. I’m already getting calls. I’m already preparing cars.” For example, Rohan notes that Pablo Sandoval recently entered the shop hoping to buy a 2016 Rolls Royce Ghost; he left behind a customized Porsche that he had bought just two years before, only driving it for just over 15,000 miles. The quiz accompanying the article — in which the reader is asked to match the car to the star who bought it — is amusing. Here’s more from around the league.

  • This offseason has seen the proliferation of opt-out clauses in long-term contracts, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes. Opt-out clauses were so rare in the past that the industry doesn’t have much concrete experience with what their results will be (although, I’ll note, it would be easy to study how opt-outs might have worked in past contracts by imagining what players might have done had they had opt-outs after, say, a year, or two years). The obvious conclusion is that opt-outs are a lose-lose for teams, who should theoretically lose productive players as they opt out while being stuck with the ones who don’t produce. But it might not be so simple, as Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski points out. “There may be other cases where somebody opts out and after a year — I’m not going to say this is going to happen but I’ll use it as an example — after a year something happens to him and he’s not pitching as well, and [a team says], ’See? That was a benefit to us,'” he says. “So we really haven’t reached that second step yet.”
  • It’s looking more and more likely that the designated hitter will be implemented in the NL as well as in the AL, Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal writes. The players’ association has long supported the change, and taking bats out of pitchers’ hands will help create more runs in an increasingly offense-starved playing environment. Also, Diamond points out that pitchers are hitting even worse than they used to, posting four of their five lowest season OPS marks since 1974 in the last four years.

Central Notes: Arroyo, Indians, Twins, Hawkins

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Free agent starter Bronson Arroyo was recently at Great American Ballpark, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. Robert Murray of Baseball Essential also recently reported that Arroyo threw for the Reds in Cincinnati. These reports, while somewhat circumstantial, point toward a possible reunion between Arroyo and the team for which he pitched from 2006 through 2013. Previous reports had suggested that the Reds were among the teams that had interest in the right-hander, although much would depend on Arroyo’s recovery from Tommy John surgery. The 38-year-old last pitched in the big leagues in June 2014, when he was with the Diamondbacks. Here’s more from the Central divisions.

  • The Indians were smart to sign Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco to long-term deals before this offseason, Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com writes. This winter has seen a number of what Hoynes implies are exorbitantly expensive pitching contracts, from the top end of the market (Johnny Cueto) to the upper middle (Jeff Samardzija, $90MM; Ian Kennedy, $70MM) to the lower middle (Mike Pelfrey, $16MM). Meanwhile, Kluber is controlled through 2021 at $14MM or less per season, and Carrasco through 2020 at $9.5MM or less per season. Of course, as Hoynes notes, Kluber and Carrasco weren’t free to negotiate with other teams when they signed those contracts. And, obviously, the Indians aren’t the only team signing top young pitchers to long-term deals. But both contracts delay their recipients’ free agency by up to three years, and when contrasted with the prices of free-agent pitching, they do contribute to a compelling case for locking up talented youngsters early.
  • Former Twins pitchers LaTroy Hawkins and Rick Aguilera are likely to join the team to help work with pitchers in Spring Training, Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press tweets. Hawkins spent the first nine seasons of his career with the Twins. The reliever had a strong season with the Rockies and Blue Jays in 2015, but he’s now retired, having announced prior to the season that he intended it to be his last. Aguilera spent parts of 11 seasons with the Twins and last pitched in the big leagues in 2000. The three-time All Star was elected to the Twins Hall of Fame in 2008.

Josh Reddick Ready To Talk Extension With Athletics

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Outfielder Josh Reddick is ready to discuss an extension with the Athletics, John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group tweets. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle further clarifies that there have not been any discussions to this point, and if the two sides do talk deal, Reddick does not want those discussions to continue into the season (Twitter links).

In October, Billy Beane told the media that he saw Reddick as a potential extension candidate. “Josh is a good player and he’s still young,” Beane told reporters, including the Chronicle’s Susan Slusser. “We’ve always liked having him here. Talented guy, does everything well. … We’re all very pleased with the year Josh had.”

Via Hickey, it sounds like Reddick wanted to settle his arbitration case before discussing a longer-term deal. Last week, Reddick and the A’s reached a $6.575MM deal for 2016, Reddick’s last season before free agency. That would mean a Reddick extension would begin with that as a starting point.

Beyond that, it’s hard to say what the parameters of a deal beyond that might be, although one player who signed a recent extension in a somewhat similar situation was the Yankees’ Brett Gardner. Gardner’s $52MM deal came before the 2014 season, when he was a year short of free agency, and covered 2015 through 2018. Gardner and Reddick have somewhat different profiles — Gardner was a bit older at the time of his extension than the soon-to-be-29-year-old Reddick is now, and he drew much of his value from his speed, his on-base percentage and his ability to play center field rather than his power. But the two players were, or are, both prime-age outfielders who are consistently valuable despite never having been superstars.

Of course, it’s unclear whether the cost-conscious Athletics would be willing to commit to a deal of that scope for Reddick. And given Reddick’s youth, the weakness of next year’s free agent market, ballooning salaries for free agents, and the increasing prevalence of player-friendly opt-outs, Reddick’s camp could also ask for a contract with a significantly different structure.

In any case, it’s easy to understand why the A’s would hope to keep Reddick at this point. He’s coming off perhaps his best offensive season to date (.272/.333/.449), and his play was a highlight of the Athletics’ otherwise disappointing 2015. Thanks to his home-run power, his solid defense, and dramatic improvements in his strikeout rate over the past several seasons, he has maintained his value well in his four years with the A’s, and given his age, there’s reason to think he could continue to do so.

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