MLBTR Chat Transcript: Trade Deadline Preview
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with Connor Byrne.
Astros Reluctant To Deal Kyle Tucker For Noah Syndergaard
Houston has been involved in this week’s Noah Syndergaard rumor extravaganza, but at last check, the Astros were said to be “pessimistic” about acquiring him. It turns out the team has “backed off” in its pursuit of Syndergaard partly because of a hesitance to trade high-end outfield prospect Kyle Tucker, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required).
Now 22, Tucker has been considered one of the game’s premier prospects since the Astros drafted him fifth overall in 2015. Baseball America (subscription required) ranked him as the game’s 12th-best farmhand in its most recent update, while ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription) placed him 19th. Tucker’s lone taste of major league action last year went horribly – he hit .141/.236/.203 in 72 homer-less plate appearances – but Law explains there’s little cause for panic. At the same time, though, BA and Law each suggest he may be a candidate for a change of scenery.
There is no immediate opening for Tucker in Houston, which has Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick as its primary corner outfielders, superlative rookie Yordan Alvarez at designated hitter and Yuli Gurriel at first base (where Tucker has been getting work of late). Nevertheless, indications are that Tucker’s an Astro to stay. Two weeks ago, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription) wrote that “it would be a major upset” to see the Astros ship him out for a starting pitcher by Wednesday’s deadline. General manager Jeff Luhnow explained to Kaplan at the time that the Astros still regard Tucker as a cornerstone in the making.
Although he stopped short of calling Tucker “untouchable,” Luhnow noted, “I see Tucker as a part of this team going forward.” He added that “it would be very difficult for us to move one of the top prospects in the game who is just starting his career and is still young and looks like he’s going to have a lot of upside.”
Tucker, for what it’s worth, has slashed .261/.344/.558 with 26 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 403 Triple-A plate appearances this year. Those look like exceptional numbers on paper, but Tucker’s output has only been 10 percent better than average in the offensive gantlet known as the Pacific Coast League, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. Tucker was an incredible 55 percent superior to the league mean when he hit .332/.400/.590 with 24 HRs and 20 steals in 465 PA during his first try at the Triple-A level in 2018. He has since upped his strikeout rate from 18.1 percent to 24.1.
Despite his downturn in production this year, doubters in Tucker’s long-term potential are few and far between. And if the Astros don’t want to move Tucker for Syndergaard, arguably the most valuable starter on the trade market, then it stands to reason he’s not going anywhere.
Yankees Place CC Sabathia On IL
The Yankees have placed left-hander C.C. Sabathia on the 10-day injured list and recalled utilityman Tyler Wade from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, the team announced. Sabathia is dealing with right knee inflammation.
This continues a brutal week for New York’s pitching staff, which has taken beatings at the hands of the Twins and Red Sox over the past several days. Archrival Boston has been especially hard on the Yankees, having outscored them 38-13 in the first three games of the teams’ series. The Red Sox pounded Sabathia on Saturday and will try to sweep the series Sunday.
The Yankees still boast the AL’s top record (66-38) and an eight-game lead over the Red Sox in their division. Still, pitching’s a significant concern for the Yankees leading up to the July 31 deadline, and Sabathia’s health and performance issues could further put the onus on general manager Brian Cashman to bring in outside help.
This is the second IL placement this year because of right knee inflammation for Sabathia, who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in his career. When Sabathia has taken the mound this season, the potential Hall of Famer has looked his age (39). Now in the last season of his career, Sabathia has pitched to a 4.78 ERA – nearly a full run higher than he combined for from 2016-18 – with a 5.93 FIP in 90 1/3 innings.
Reds Activate Alex Wood, Designate Ryan Lavarnway
The Reds have activated left-hander Alex Wood from the injured list and designated catcher Ryan Lavarnway for assignment, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets.
As expected, the 28-year-old Wood will finally make his Reds debut against the Rockies on Sunday. He joined the Reds in the offseason as part of a radical makeover of their rotation. In addition to Wood, whom the Reds acquired from the Dodgers, they brought in fellow starters Sonny Gray and Tanner Roark via trades. Gray and Roark have performed well, which has helped lead to a vastly improved Cincy staff, but back problems have prevented Wood from pitching this year. The pending free agent will now try to rebuild some of his stock as he gears up for a potential trip to the open market in a few months.
Lavarnway, 31, just signed with the Reds on July 18 after the Yankees released him. Cincinnati added Lavarnway to help cover for catchers Curt Casali and Kyle Farmer, who went on the IL that day, but the team activated Farmer on Sunday.
Once a top prospect with the Red Sox, Lavarnway has struggled considerably over 445 major league plate appearances with several teams since he debuted in 2011. He did mash in a small sample size with the Reds before they designated him, though, as Lavarnway hit .278/.316/.722 with two home runs in 19 plate appearances. However, Lavarnway batted an uninspiring .213/.333/.315 with three HRs in 129 PA with the Yankees’ highest minor league affiliate before they let him go.
Yasiel Puig, Scooter Gennett Among Reds Who Are “In Play”
Along with the previously reported Raisel Iglesias and Tanner Roark, Reds outfielder Yasiel Puig and second baseman Scooter Gennett are “in play” as Wednesday’s trade deadline nears, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required).
The Reds have all but faded out of the playoff race, but they could still buy as well as sell in the next few days, Rosenthal writes. It would be logical to deal anyone who’s down to his last year of control, which includes Roark, Puig and Gennett. Puig’s the only member of the trio who’s a potential qualifying offer candidate, so the Reds could consider holding the ex-Dodger if they’re dissatisfied with the offers that come in for him. Alternatively, the club could attempt to extend Puig – something general manager Nick Krall has suggested they’re open to doing.
After a glacial start to the season, his first as a Red, Puig has come much closer to resembling his usual self over the past several weeks. Puig owned a sub-.650 OPS at the beginning of June, but the number has climbed about 150 points since then. The 28-year-old now owns a .260/.309/.489 line with 22 home runs and 13 steals on 18 tries. Puig has also once again graded out respectably in right field, where he has accounted for 3 Defensive Runs Saved and a 0.7 Ultimate Zone Rating.
Puig’s collecting a $9.7MM salary, while Gennett’s making a bit more at $9.775MM. That looked like a reasonable figure entering the season for Gennett, who transformed from waiver fodder into one of the game’s most valuable second basemen from 2017-18, yet this has been a nightmare of a campaign for the 29-year-old. It began inauspiciously at the end of March when Gennett suffered a severe groin strain – one that kept him out of action until June 28.
While it’s a small sample size, Gennett has come back to hit a stunningly subpar .185/.211/.222 with zero homers (he combined for 50 from 2017-18) over 57 trips to the plate in the past month. That production has been good for a single-digit wRC+ (9), owing in part to a horrid K:BB ratio of 17:1. There’s time for a rest-of-season turnaround for Gennett, but his trade value has surely dropped to a considerable degree this year.
Mets Interested In Robbie Ray
The Mets could trade Noah Syndergaard and-or Zack Wheeler by Wednesday’s trade deadline, but they might land at least one immediate rotation replacement in the coming days. Already connected to Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman, the club’s also “on” Diamondbacks left-hander Robbie Ray, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv.
Interest in Stroman and Ray jibes with the notion that the Mets, despite their dreadful 2019, are aiming to contend and not rebuild next season. Whether it would be an ill-advised plan for the prospect-needy Mets is up for debate, but it seems the goal would be to collect a haul for at least Syndergaard (there’s reportedly interest in extending Wheeler) and trade from their farm to acquire Stroman or Ray. Each of those two would bring back less in a deal than Syndergaard, who’s under control for one more year than they are, but they’d hardly come cheap.
There’s little doubt Ray would cost less to land than Stroman, who owns the superior track record. But there’s plenty of value with Ray, a proven mid-rotation starter who’s on an affordable $6.05MM salary now and controllable through arbitration next season. The playoff-contending Diamondbacks might not even give him up, but if they were to send Ray to the Mets, he’d join Jacob deGrom in giving the team two elite strikeout pitchers.
The 27-year-old Ray is obviously much less effective overall than deGrom, but Ray’s nonetheless on his way to a third straight season with a sky-high strikeout rate and a sub-4.00 ERA. Ray has logged a 3.95 ERA/4.27 FIP with 11.85 K/9 through 123 innings. He has, however, walked upward of four batters per nine for the second year in a row, posted a sub-40 percent groundball rate for the second straight campaign and kept up his years-long struggles with home runs.
Latest On Trevor Bauer
It’s anyone’s guess whether the Indians will trade right-hander Trevor Bauer before Wednesday’s deadline. On one hand, he’s an integral piece of a surging team that has climbed to 62-42, putting the Tribe four up on the AL’s top wild-card spot and just one back of the division-leading Twins. On the other, the budget-conscious Indians would net an enticing return for Bauer, who’s on a $13MM salary and figures to earn a raise of $5MM or more to conclude his arbitration control next season. Even if the Indians decide to retain Bauer through this year, his time in Cleveland is nearing a conclusion. The 28-year-old “almost certainly” isn’t going to be on the Indians’ roster in 2020, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports.
In the meantime, the Indians have a few days to choose how to proceed with Bauer this season. There’s already known to be plenty of interest in Bauer, but it seems two of the Indians’ AL rivals – the Yankees and Astros – are pursuing him with more vigor than anyone else. Those two clubs “keep inquiring about Bauer,” writes Hoynes, who adds the Indians have also discussed him with the Padres and Braves.
Among the Yankees, Astros, Padres and Braves, only San Diego isn’t an immediate contender. However, the club is known to like Bauer, whom it tried to acquire at the beginning of the season. Led by their collection of young talent, the Padres have made progress since then, and they’re aiming to make a more spirited run at a playoff berth next year. That’s evidenced by the club’s interest in Bauer and other established starters, including Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd and Mets righty Noah Syndergaard.
It would seem rather difficult for Cleveland to hand Bauer to New York or Houston, in part because the Indians could realistically wind up facing him as a Yankee or Astro in the postseason. Plus, considering Corey Kluber has been out since May 1 with a forearm fracture (and isn’t returning imminently) and Carlos Carrasco’s battling leukemia, the Indians arguably need Bauer more than ever.
Bauer not only leads the Indians’ staff in innings (152 1/3), but he paces the entire league in that department, and has logged a solid 3.49 ERA/4.19 FIP with 10.58 K/9 and 3.49 BB/9. All-Star MVP Shane Bieber is the lone Indians starter who has outperformed Bauer over the course of a full season in 2019. Mike Clevinger has been fantastic again, though he has only made nine starts. Another rookie, Zach Plesac, has joined Bieber in outdoing Bauer in ERA (3.10), but that figure looks like a house of cards when examining his fielding-independent pitching numbers. Meanwhile, Adam Plutko and the currently injured Jefry Rodriguez have managed back-end type of numbers over a combined 17 starts.
For now, the interest in Bauer may wind up going for naught. The Indians could prefer to hold Bauer and try to take another run at a championship as control over him and several other notables – most importantly, Francisco Lindor – dissipates. If the Indians elect against moving Bauer in the next few days, Hoynes suggests they’ll attempt to supplement their roster, perhaps by by adding relief and-or offensive help. Hoynes points to Rangers slugger Hunter Pence as “a possibility” for Cleveland, though it’s unclear if that’s speculation or if there’s real interest on the Tribe’s part.
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/27/19
The latest minor moves from around baseball…
- Cardinals left-handed reliever Chasen Shreve has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Memphis, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets. Shreve, whom the Cardinals designated Tuesday, could have opted for free agency instead. However, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted when the Cards booted him from their 40-man roster, Shreve would have had to forfeit the balance of his $900K salary. Shreve’s likely best known for joining the Cardinals (along with fellow reliever Giovanny Gallegos) in a trade with the Yankees for first baseman Luke Voit on July 28 of last year. Although Shreve was solid at times prior to 2019, he has barely been a factor in the majors this season. The 29-year-old has thrown two innings in St. Louis and 42 2/3 in Memphis.
Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Jays Pursuing Edwin Diaz
Just four months into his first season with the Mets, ballyhooed winter acquisition Edwin Diaz has already emerged a potential trade chip amid a disappointing campaign. The Braves, Dodgers, Rays and Blue Jays are among the teams in on the right-handed closer, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. Andy Martino of SNY.tv passes along different information on the Braves, tweeting there’s “no traction” on Diaz to Atlanta.
The fact that Atlanta, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay are rumored to have interest in Diaz isn’t a shock. They’re all contending teams that are known to be in the market for bullpen help. The inclusion of rebuilding Toronto looks especially intriguing on paper, though it’s possible Diaz wouldn’t ever throw a pitch for the Blue Jays. The club could instead acquire Diaz and flip him to the Braves – one of the Mets’ division rivals – for prospects, according to Puma.
It’s the latest creative trade idea involving Diaz, whom the Mets are reportedly considering putting in a package with righty starter Zack Wheeler before Wednesday’s deadline. But whether anyone will even be able to pry Diaz out of New York is up in the air. Diaz was rookie general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s signature offseason addition, so BVW has predictably indicated it would take an enormous return for the Mets to deal him away so soon.
Van Wagenen, for his part, surrendered two of the game’s top prospects – outfielder Jarred Kelenic and righty Justin Dunn – in a package for Diaz and second baseman Robinson Cano. The Mets also took on $100MM of Cano’s remaining money to get Diaz, but the trade has blown up in the non-contending club’s face so far. The typically great Cano may be deteriorating at the age of 36, while Diaz hasn’t been able to match his otherworldly 2018 swan song in Seattle.
The hard-throwing Diaz arrived in New York as a celebrated bullpen savior after closing 57 of 61 opportunities, posting a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP and logging 15.22 K/9 against 2.09 BB/9 in 73 1/3 innings last season. The Mets’ version has been lit up for a 4.81 ERA over 39 1/3 frames and blown as many saves as he did last season (in 35 fewer chances). The home run ball has been a major concern this year for Diaz, who yielded HRs on a career-best 10.6 percent of flies in 2018. That figure has shot to a personal-worst 17.9 percent this season as his groundball numbers have fallen precipitously.
Even factoring in the difficulties Diaz has endured in 2019, there’s plenty to like – including his 97 mph heat, pre-2019 track record and the 3.50 FIP, 13.96 K/9 and 2.97 BB/9 he has logged this season. Diaz has also suffered from poor luck, it seems, evidenced in part by a .407 batting average on balls in play against and a wide gap between the .336 weighted on-base average/.271 xwOBA that hitters have recorded off him.
Diaz may be a prime candidate for a turnaround, which – coupled with his team control – helps make him extremely attractive to the Mets and other clubs. The 25-year-old’s earning just over $600K this season and will go through the first of three potential trips through arbitration over the winter. However, whether he’ll do so as a Met or as a member of another team is now surprisingly in question.
Reds Rumors: Garrett, Roark, Yankees
The Reds had been clinging to the hope of buying this deadline season, but their recent skid could turn them into sellers prior to Wednesday. Now at 46-55, the National League’s third-worst record, the Reds sit a lofty 7 1/2 games out of wild-card position. We already know the club is willing to entertain offers for Raisel Iglesias as a result of its pre-deadline slide. Cincinnati also has at least a couple other pitchers generating interest in reliever Amir Garrett and starter Tanner Roark, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links).
“Many teams covet” the 27-year-old Garrett, Heyman writes, but the Reds are in the same boat. They’re actually more likely to trade Iglesias than Garrett, per Heyman. Garrett’s playing this season for a minimal salary and will do the same again in 2020 before potentially taking three trips through the arbitration process. Not only does Garrett bring four-plus years of team control to the table, but the left-hander has seemingly broken out this season.
Garrett fell flat as a starter in 2017, his rookie campaign, before faring far better as a reliever a year ago. The switch from the Reds’ rotation to their bullpen has led to a significant velocity increase for Garrett, who has averaged 95 mph on his fastball after clocking in just below 92 in his previous role.
During his debut as a reliever in 2018, Garrett registered a 4.29 ERA/3.89 FIP with 10.14 K/9, 3.57 BB/9 and a 38 percent groundball rate in 63 innings. That’s useful production, but Garrett has found another gear in 2019. Across 39 frames, he has pitched to a 1.85 ERA/3.09 FIP, and though his walk rate has soared to 5.08 per nine, Garrett’s strikeout and grounder marks have skyrocketed with it. Garrett has fanned 13-plus per nine and induced worm burners at a 53.8 percent clip. He has also stymied same- and opposite-handed hitters alike, evidenced by the .260 weighted on-base average lefties have managed off him and the .285 wOBA righties have put up. They’ve combined for a .274 wOBA, but Statcast’s xwOBA metric (.256) suggests Garrett has been even more dominant.
It’s no surprise the Reds want to keep Garrett, but there’s a strong argument it would make sense to trade Roark – a pending free agent who’s not a qualifying offer candidate. Along with the previously reported Phillies, the Yankees “have checked in on” Roark, according to Heyman. As Heyman notes, that may have been due diligence on the part of a Yankees team searching high and low for starting help.
Regardless of whether it’s the Yankees or someone else, it’s unlikely Cincinnati would have trouble finding a team for Roark. He is making a somewhat expensive $10MM salary, but Roark has justified the price tag this season. Since joining the Reds in a trade last winter, the 32-year-old ex-National has notched a 3.95 ERA/4.15 FIP with 8.92 K/9 and 2.86 BB/9 in 107 innings. There isn’t much difference between Roark’s bottom-line production in 2019 and the output that enabled him to total four seasons of at least 2.0 fWAR over the prior half-decade. He’s already at 1.8 in that category this year.