Madison Bumgarner Suffers Elbow Contusion
SUNDAY: Baggarly adds on Twitter that Bumgarner remains on track to start on Saturday for the Giants.
SATURDAY, 10:50pm: X-rays on Bumgarner came back negative, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets. He suffered an elbow contusion.
SATURDAY, 10:12pm: Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner exited his start against the Cardinals on Saturday after two innings. Bumgarner took a first-inning comebacker to the left elbow off the bat of Jose Martinez, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle was among those to report. The 29-year-old stayed in immediately after, but his “elbow was really swollen,” Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets. The Giants opted to pull Bumgarner early as a result.
The severity of the injury is unknown at this time, though removing Bumgarner may have been a precautionary move on the Giants’ part. As Schulman notes, San Francisco doesn’t have any real reason to take a chance with Bumgarner. After all, the multi-time playoff hero stands out as a premier trade chip going into the July 31 deadline.
Bumgarner, possibly the best rental starter on the block, has logged a 4.03 ERA/3.91 FIP with tremendous strikeout and walk rates (9.27 K/9, 1.93 BB/9) over 111 2/3 innings this season. If healthy, plenty of contenders will inquire about Bumgarner this month. At least two already have in recent weeks.
Gio Gonzalez Nearing Rehab Assignment
Brewers left-hander Gio Gonzalez, out since June 1 with a dead arm, is finally progressing toward a return. He’ll start a rehab assignment at the High-A level on Wednesday, Sophia Minnaert of Fox Sports Wisconsin reports.
Gonzalez threw a bullpen session of 40-plus pitches Saturday without incident – a notable step for someone who suffered a setback during a bullpen on June 26. The hope prior to then was that Gonzalez would come back before the All-Star break. It’s now unclear how long he’ll take to ramp up before rejoining the Brewers, but his return will be a timely one with the club fighting for a playoff spot and in need of starting help.
Despite the holes in their pitching staff, the reigning National League Central champion Brewers are 47-43, in possession of a wild-card spot and a half-game back of the Cubs in a wide-open division. The Brewers are in playoff position thanks in part to Gonzalez, who looked like a quality bargain pickup before going on the IL.
After signing a $2MM deal with the Brewers in late April, the former Athletic and National began the season with a 3.19 ERA/3.24 FIP, 7.55 K/9 against 2.61 BB/9, and a 45.5 percent groundball rate over 31 innings and six starts. There’s a case Gonzalez has been the Brewers’ second- or third-best starter this season on a per-inning basis, trailing the emergent Brandon Woodruff and perhaps Zach Davies.
Jake Arrieta Has Bone Spur In Elbow, Could Require Surgery
10:28am: Manager Gabe Kapler confirmed Arrieta has a bone spur. The Phillies will evaluate Arrieta in the coming days to determine whether he should keep pitching (via Lauber).
8:24am: Arrieta does think he has a bone spur, but he expects he’ll be able to continue pitching through it this season, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
7:49am: Phillies right-hander Jake Arrieta turned in his latest clunker Saturday, a 4 1/3-inning start in which he allowed five earned runs on 11 hits in a loss to the Mets. Afterward, not only did Arrieta have some choice words for Mets third baseman Todd Frazier, but the former ace suggested he has been pitching through an injury (via Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb of The Athletic).
“I labored physically,” Arrieta said. “I wasn’t able to put the ball where I wanted to. It’s been that way for a few weeks. Just physically not in a great spot.”
It turns out Arrieta’s dealing with a bone spur in his right elbow that will likely require surgery at some point, Rosenthal and Gelb report. The Phillies have known about the injury, but their hope has been that it won’t prevent him from continuing to pitch. Now, though, it looks possible Arrieta will have to undergo a season-ending procedure, according to Rosenthal and Gelb. He previously underwent season-ending surgery on a bone spur while with the Orioles in 2011.
Although Arrieta said there’s no medical examination scheduled, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia tweets that his elbow “will be checked.” If that exam yields bad news, his season – the second of a three-year, $75MM contract – could end. Should that happen, it seems likely to affect the Phillies’ trade deadline plans. Even with Arrieta having thrown a team-high 108 innings this season, its rotation has failed to produce compelling results and could be in line for upgrades. The struggles of the Phillies’ staff have helped lead to a mediocre 46-43 record for the club in the wake of an ultra-aggressive offseason. Philadelphia’s in third place in the NL East and 6 1/2 games behind the first-place Braves, though it’s only a half-game back of a wild-card spot.
Formerly a star with the Cubs, with whom he won the 2015 NL Cy Young Award, Arrieta has declined precipitously since he joined the Phillies. Arrieta was merely decent across 172 2/3 innings last year, but he has fallen well short of even posting average production this season. The 33-year-old has put up a 4.67 ERA/5.07 FIP with 7.08 K/9 and 3.33 BB/9. Despite a 50.9 percent groundball rate, Arrieta has yielded home runs on 20.2 percent of fly balls – roughly a 6 percent increase over last year’s figure. It seems Arrieta’s elbow issue has contributed to his problems, though, and it’s in question whether he’ll be able to keep laboring through it.
Brewers Call Up Mauricio Dubon
SUNDAY: Dubon’s officially up. Amazingly, Arcia dodged a significant injury and should be fine to return after the All-Star break, per Rosiak. Because Arcia’s not going on the IL, the Brewers optioned righty Burch Smith to make room for Dubon.
SATURDAY: The Brewers are set to call up shortstop prospect Mauricio Dubon, Robert Murray of The Athletic tweets. Dubon, who’s already on the Brewers’ 40-man roster, will make his major league debut.
The Dubon call-up comes on the heels of a potentially serious injury for shortstop Orlando Arcia. The 24-year-old had to be carted off the field during the Brewers’ loss to the Pirates on Saturday after a collision with second baseman Keston Hiura. Arcia “was holding his left arm and shoulder” as he exited the field, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes.
Dubon, also 24, suffered a major injury of his own – a torn left ACL – just a year ago. The righty-swinging Dubon has come back this season to slash .306/.343/.467 (99 wRC+) with 14 home runs and eight stolen bases in 357 plate appearances with the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate in San Antonio.
Dubon originally joined the Brewers in a December 2016 trade with the Red Sox that centered on reliever Tyler Thornburg and third baseman Travis Shaw. Although Dubon was only a 26th-round pick in 2013, he evolved into one of Boston’s top prospects before it dealt him. He’s among the Brewers’ best farmhands nowadays. MLB.com and FanGraphs each place Dubon fifth in Milwaukee’s system. He could become “a low-end” starting shortstop in the majors, Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs write.
Injury Notes: Dodgers, Red Sox, Pirates, Mariners
Dodgers left-hander Rich Hill is making progress in his effort to overcome a flexor tendon strain, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports. A platelet-rich plasma injection “has promoted some healing in the tissue,” writes Plunkett, who adds “everything looked good” for Hill after an ultrasound on Friday. He’s on track to start playing catch next weekend, though a potential return is still a ways off. The 39-year-old landed on the 10-day injured list June 20, but the Dodgers transferred him to the 60-day version earlier this week. Consequently, Hill won’t factor back into the Dodgers’ pitching staff until at least August. He had been enjoying another fine season – the last of his three-year, $48MM contract – with a 2.55 ERA/4.15 FIP, 10.36 K/9, 2.04 BB/9 and a 48.9 percent groundball rate over 53 innings.
- Sticking with the Dodgers, corner infielder David Freese is a good bet to return from the IL on Friday, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com tweets. Freese went down June 23 with a left hamstring strain, temporarily halting a rousing start for the long-productive 36-year-old. He came out flying this season with a .308/.407/.592 line (162 wRC+) and eight home runs in 140 plate appearances.
- Red Sox first baseman Mitch Moreland could start a rehab assignment next week, according to Bill Koch of the Providence Journal. Moreland has already been on the IL twice dating back to late May, including since June 8. He first succumbed to a lower back strain and then suffered a right quad strain upon his return. A healthy Moreland has been among many major leaguers to demonstrate an increase in power this season. The 33-year-old boasts 13 HRs, a sky-high .318 ISO and a .225/.316/.543 line (116 wRC+) in 174 trips to the plate.
- Left-hander Steven Brault became the most recent Pittsburgh starter to head to the IL on Saturday. Brault will sit out with a left shoulder strain, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. That sounds like a concerning ailment on paper, though Brault and the Pirates are optimistic he won’t miss more than one or two starts, according to Mackey. Brault exited his start against the Brewers on Friday after four innings of one-run ball because of the injury. He has now pitched to a 4.15 ERA/4.53 FIP with 7.86 K/9 and 4.75 BB/9 in 60 2/3 innings (15 appearances, nine starts) this year. Several injuries to starters, including to Pirates No. 1 Jameson Taillon, have opened the door for Brault to work from their rotation. Taillon has been out since May 4 with a right flexor strain, though in a long-awaited sign of progress, he’ll play catch Sunday, Mackey relays. Meanwhile, reliever Keone Kela threw a simulated game Saturday. Kela, also down since May 4, has been battling right shoulder troubles.
- Greg Johns of MLB.com and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times share the latest on a trio of righty Mariners relievers. Offseason signing Hunter Strickland, out since March 30 with a right lat strain, felt “awesome” after throwing a 20-pitch bullpen Saturday. His return still appears to be a good distance away, though. Austin Adams (Grade 1 lat strain) and Dan Altavilla (ulnar collateral ligament) just joined Strickland on the IL. Between Adams and Altavilla, the former has been the better reliever this year, but the latter’s injury looks more severe. The Mariners will know more after Altavilla undergoes an MRI.
Brodie Van Wagenen Reportedly Lashes Out At Mets’ Coaches
The fun never stops for the 2019 Mets, who’ve endured a nightmarish, drama-packed campaign after starting it with playoff aspirations. Following Friday’s loss to the Phillies, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen assembled the Mets’ coaching staff, including beleaguered manager Mickey Callaway, and “lashed out” over the fact that the team wasted ace Jacob deGrom‘s excellent performance, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. Van Wagenen further expressed his displeasure by throwing a chair and ordering Callaway to go conduct his “[expletive] press conference,” according to Puma.
The GM neither confirmed nor denied the incident took place, per Puma, though Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News tweet that it did indeed happen. If we’re to believe these reports, this looks like just the latest strange occurrence of the season for the Mets. Van Wagenen reportedly had deGrom pulled from a start June 1 because of a hip cramp, and just two weeks ago, Callaway and left-hander Jason Vargas got into a dustup with Newsday beat writer Tim Healey. Vargas’ actions reportedly left the team’s front office “incensed” and could hasten his departure either by the July 31 trade deadline or in the offfseason.
As with Vargas, it’s fair to wonder how much longer Callaway will continue with the organization. The club has gone a horrid 116-134 since it hired him entering last season, though that’s not to suggest he’s the lone source of blame. Led by the neophyte GM and ex-agent Van Wagenen, the Mets surely expected to wind up as deadline buyers this year. In January, when Van Wagenen was amid an aggressive offseason that was supposed to turn around the downtrodden franchise, he told the rest of the National League East to “come get us.” Three months into the season, the division has done just that.
Among their divisional foes and the entire NL, the Mets have bettered only the rebuilding Marlins as the All-Star break approaches. At 39-49, the Mets are a whopping 13 games behind the East-leading Braves and seven back of a wild-card spot. Frustrations are boiling over as a result.
Nationals, Anthony Rendon Discussing Extension
Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon is slated to become the best position player to hit free agency in the upcoming offseason. He might not reach the open market, though. Nationals owner Ted Lerner and Rendon’s agent, Scott Boras, are discussing an extension for the All-Star, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports.
Boras was at Nationals Park on Saturday – an indication of how serious negotiations have become, Zuckerman observes. The two sides have talked about a new deal for Rendon on and off for a while now, though they haven’t been able to bridge the gap thus far. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reported earlier this week there hadn’t been much progress between the team and player, noting Rendon’s likely seeking a pact in the range of the seven-year, $234MM extension Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado signed before the season.
Rendon’s trophy case is nowhere near as full as that of Arenado, who has earned five All-Star trips and six Gold Gloves, among other awards. Nevertheless, Rendon has been one of the majors’ premier players in his own right. Rendon, whom the Nationals chose sixth overall in the 2011 draft, debuted in 2013 and has since slashed .286/.363/.482 (125 wRC+) with 122 home runs and 29.0 fWAR in 3,597 plate appearances. Only 11 position players have bettered Rendon in the fWAR department dating back to his first at-bat, and he’s now enjoying his top season yet. On the strength of a .304/.388/.612 line (150 wRC+) with 20 homers in 320 PA, Rendon finally picked up a long-overdue All-Star nod.
Now, having lost Bryce Harper to free agency last winter, the Nationals don’t seem prepared to let yet another homegrown superstar depart. Harper’s also a Boras client, but even though the team was unable to retain the outfielder, its ownership is known to have a positive relationship with the super-agent.
Along with Rendon, four of the Nationals’ other players are Boras clients, including high-profile starters Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Washington signed Scherzer to a seven-year, $210MM contract in free agency entering 2015. The club then handed Strasburg a seven-year, $175MM extension in May 2016, when he was just a few months from potentially testing the open market. The Nationals may now follow suit with Rendon.
Report: Orioles “Certainly Would” Trade Andrew Cashner
Orioles general manager Mike Elias suggested in late June it would be difficult for the starter-starved club to part with either Dylan Bundy or Andrew Cashner prior to the July 31 trade deadline. However, at least in Cashner’s case, Baltimore “certainly would” part with the right-hander, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Elias has been “checking the Cashner market for quite a while,” Kubatko adds.
The Orioles obviously haven’t found a taker for Cashner yet, though he has upped his value with a resurgent year. After Cashner’s disastrous 2018, his first season as an Oriole, it would have been difficult to envision him emerging as a trade chip this summer. But the 32-year-old has come out of the gates this season with a 3.83 ERA/4.26 FIP, 6.17 K/9 against 2.71 BB/9, and a 49.2 percent groundball rate in 96 1/3 innings. Cashner turned in his fifth consecutive quality start Saturday, throwing seven innings of one-run ball in Toronto.
Cashner’s success in 2019 has come thanks in part to an ability to stymie opposite-handed hitters, whom he has limited to a paltry .229 weighted on-base average. At the same time, Cashner has held enemy lineups to a .273 wOBA the first time through the order, a .311 mark the second time and a .312 figure the third time. Cashner’s better output has come with an increase in velocity. He averaged 92.4 mph on his fastball a year ago, but the number has revisited its 93.5 mph mean from 2017 – a season in which he defied uninspiring peripherals to post a 3.40 ERA with the Rangers. He landed a two-year, $16MM deal from the O’s the next winter as a result.
Cashner’s on track to reach free agency again during the upcoming offseason, and he is owed approximately $3.7MM of his current $8MM salary in the meantime. Considering Cashner is not a major difference-maker at this stage of his career, Baltimore might have to eat some of his remaining money to augment his trade value in the next few weeks. If Cashner keeps pitching well until then, though, he may indeed end the season with a playoff contender.
Is Kyle Schwarber Better Than This?
It’s well known that Cubs brass has long revered Kyle Schwarber, the fourth overall pick in 2014 whom the team refused to part with in trades during ensuing seasons. The big-bodied Schwarber was a catcher in his younger days, though there was much skepticism the ex-Indiana Hoosier would carve out a future in the majors behind the plate. Indeed, despite having slimmed down in recent years, Schwarber hasn’t donned the tools of ignorance at all since 2017.
With no DH spot available in the National League and Anthony Rizzo holding down first base, Schwarber has settled in as the Cubs’ left fielder. Reviews have been mixed on Schwarber, who has simultaneously accounted for minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-14.6 Ultimate Zone Rating through upward of 2,700 innings in left. The fact that Schwarber hasn’t been unplayable in the outfield is a clear positive, but his left-handed bat will always be his carrying tool. However, despite the hype that has surrounded Schwarber in his career, he hasn’t emerged as a great major league hitter yet.
Schwarber was a tremendous college and minor league offensive performer who immediately made his mark in Chicago as a rookie in 2015, when he slashed .246/.355/.487 (131 wRC+) with 16 home runs across 273 plate appearances. In light of his stellar introduction, expectations were Schwarber would further cement himself as a linchpin of the Cubs’ lineup in 2016. Instead, though, he suffered a torn left ACL and LCL in April of that year and wound up missing all but two regular-season games. To his immense credit, Schwarber became something of a Chicago folk hero in rehabbing quickly enough to return for the World Series that autumn. Schwarber put the exclamation point on his Fall Classic comeback by slashing a fantastic .412/.500/.471 in 20 PA against the Indians to help the Cubs win their first title in 108 years.
The good times were supposed to keep rolling for Schwarber, but his output has been underwhelming since his triumphant return. Dating back to 2017, Schwarber has batted .226/.333/.466 with 74 homers, a 107 wRC+ and 5.6 fWAR over 1,340 trips to the plate. The 26-year-old has essentially been a league-average hitter (101 wRC+) through 344 PA this season, making him an unspectacular part of a team whose weeks-long slump has led to frustration from its higher-ups.
Here’s some much-needed positive news for the Cubs, though: Better days may be ahead for Schwarber. His hard-hit percentage ranks second among all qualified hitters who have totaled at least 100 batted ball-events this year, per Statcast, while his average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls checks in at 13th. Among batters who have accumulated at least 300 PA in 2019, FanGraphs credits Schwarber with the game’s seventh-lowest soft-contact percentage (10.8). Adding to the encouragement, Schwarber has increased his flies/liners while decreasing his grounders compared to 2018. He’s also making more contact while swinging and missing less than he did a year ago. All of that has helped Schwarber maintain his prodigious power despite so-so overall results this year, as he has chipped in 18 HRs with a .234 ISO.
With the above considered, it’s no surprise Schwarber’s expected weighted on-base average (.358) far outdoes his real wOBA (.331). However, just because Schwarber’s hitting the ball hard doesn’t automatically mean his production will positively regress. It doesn’t appear the strikeout-prone Schwarber is a sure bet to ever complement his power with a high batting average or a lofty BABIP (the latter’s at .269 this year, right in line with his career mark), so he has to compensate by drawing walks. Schwarber collected free passes a personal-best 15.3 percent of the time in 2018, assisting in a career-high .356 OBP and helping cancel out a .238 average. But his walk percentage has dropped to 12.5 – not far from his lifetime figure – this year. That’s still easily above average, but the 3 percent fall has limited Schwarber to a .326 OBP that’s barely better than the .322 MLB mean.
Average offensive numbers aren’t going to suffice for Schwarber, who Baseball America wrote in 2015 had a chance to become a “.300-hitting, 30-homer” force in the majors. While Schwarber’s power potential has indeed transferred to the bigs since then, the Cubs continue waiting for the rest of the offensive package to arrive.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Padres Could Move Matt Strahm Back To Bullpen
Although left-hander Matt Strahm is one of three Padres with at least 15 starts this year, he may be on his way back to the team’s bullpen. Strahm will work as a reliever this weekend, and there is a chance his role change will last beyond the All-Star break and perhaps through the season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
The 27-year-old Strahm explained to Acee that he considers himself a starter and would like to remain one, but he’d accept a reversion to his previous job. Strahm functioned almost exclusively in relief for the Royals and Padres from 2016-18, during which he picked up just eight starts in 86 appearances. Even though Strahm was quite effective out of San Diego’s bullpen last season, the team took the gamble of turning him into a full-time starter coming into this year. The experiment was going swimmingly through May, at which point Strahm had posted a sparkling 3.21 ERA with 51 strikeouts against 11 walks in 56 innings.
While Strahm carried a stretch of nine straight starts in which he allowed three earned runs or fewer into June 2, his season began unraveling then. Strahm coughed up seven earned runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Marlins, and the Padres put him on the injured list with a rib strain shortly thereafter.
Although Strahm returned after spending the minimum time on the IL, his woes have intensified since. Including his performance against Miami, Strahm has turned in five starts in a row of giving up between four and seven earned runs. He now owns a bloated 5.42 ERA with a similarly unpalatable 5.21 FIP over 79 2/3 frames this season, despite having notched 8.7 K/9 against 1.92 BB/9. Most of Strahm’s problems have come versus same-handed hitters, whom he has surprisingly had much more trouble against than righties throughout his career. Those struggles have been even more pronounced this year, though, as lefties have pulverized Strahm for a .430 weighted on-base average. For all intents and purposes, Strahm has turned every lefty swinger into Charlie Blackmon (.425 wOBA).
A drop in velocity surely hasn’t helped matters for Strahm, who has seen all of his pitches lose steam since 2018. He averaged around 94 mph on his fastball last year, but it’s down to roughly 91 this season. Less velocity has helped lead to more home runs off Strahm for opposing hitters. Just under 18 percent of fly balls have left the yard against Strahm, which is especially alarming for someone whose groundball rate (33.1 percent) ranks near the absolute bottom of the majors.
Now, if the Padres do pull Strahm from their rotation for good, it’s unclear which quintet would comprise their rotation. The team just got Dinelson Lamet back from Tommy John surgery, while Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer have done well across a combined 46 starts. The Friars also have Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill and Nick Margevicius in the mix, and there’s at least some chance they’ll add another starter in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. Despite a 43-45 record, the Padres are just three games back of a wild-card spot, which could put them in position to buy in the right situation (perhaps one that would deliver a controllable starter to San Diego). Looking beyond the deadline, there’s a chance recovering Tommy John patient Garrett Richards will come back in September.
In shifting Strahm back to his previous role, the Padres would hope he’d rekindle last year’s magic and give them the lights-out lefty reliever they’ve lacked this season. With Jose Castillo and Aaron Loup having missed most or all of the season, the Padres’ lone usable lefty option has been Robbie Erlin. He hasn’t been great, though, whereas Strahm’s just a year removed from pitching to a 2.25 ERA (albeit with a far less formidable 3.70 FIP) with 9.56 K/9 against 3.38 BB/9 in 48 relief innings.