Jeff Todd | MLB Trade Rumors

Should The Braves Trade Ender Inciarte?

By Jeff Todd | May 30, 2019 at 12:20pm CDT

Well, you see the question in the headline. Should they? In brief, in my opinion: no.

This is the sort of query we get a lot from readers. When there’s depth at a position, it’s natural to wonder whether some of it could be used in a swap. We’ve been asked quite a bit about Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte, who struggled before hitting the injured list and has now perhaps been indirectly Wally Pipp’ed by exciting young slugger Austin Riley.

Thing is, Inciarte is no Pipp. When Pipp was eclipsed by Lou Gehrig, he was a 32-year-old first baseman mired in a slump after years of inconsistent offensive production. Inciarte? Ironically, his 63 OPS+ is a near-match to Pipp’s 62 OPS+ from that fateful 1925 season. Otherwise, they are nothing alike. Inciarte is a high-grade defensive outfielder and baserunner. Even if he’s a slightly below-average true-talent hitter, which seems like a fair characterization, he’s a valuable roster piece.

I admit it, the Pipp thing isn’t really even an apt analogy in the first place. But that only goes to prove the point on Inciarte.

Take a look at this Braves roster. Ronald Acuna is capable of playing center field and probably doing whatever else he happens to feel like on a baseball field. Nick Markakis is entrenched in right for the rest of the season and Riley’s bat isn’t coming out of the lineup unless and until MLB pitchers figure him out. On the reserve side, Matt Joyce has been a useful lefty bench bat; Charlie Culberson and Johan Camargo are infielders by trade.

Inciarte still fits just fine — quite nicely, in fact, especially given that Riley is still learning the outfield on the fly. Inciarte could enter late in games as a pinch-runner and/or defensive replacement for Riley, leaving the Braves with an excellent defensive alignment. And let’s not forget that Inciarte has a history of solid output as an everyday player. If there’s an injury or a sudden downturn, it’d be awfully nice to have him around.

Making a roster adjustment to accommodate him shouldn’t be too hard. Joyce is a bit of a luxury for a team that has so many firm regulars. He has been tasked with a limited role, serving mostly as a pinch-hitter and logging only 35 1/3 innings in the field. It’s not as if Inciarte isn’t capable enough against right-handed pitching himself; for his career, he’s a .289/.339/.404 hitter with the platoon advantage.

If the Braves prefer to hang onto Joyce, and maintain their overall slate of players, they can option down Camargo. Heck, Culberson is hitting like he’d belong on one of Gehrig’s old teams, so expanding his role would make sense regardless. With Riley on the roster, there’s a ready-made third-base fill-in to spell Josh Donaldson. And Camargo is really struggling at the plate. He has seen an erosion in plate discipline. He’s putting the ball in the air more but not doing so with authority, leaving him with a meager power output (.111 ISO) and low BABIP (.244) that’s not entirely undeserved. There’s good reason to think he’ll ultimately improve upon his ugly .213/.261/.324 slash, but some time working out the kinks at Triple-A wouldn’t be the worst idea.

The future considerations also weigh in favor of keeping Inciarte around. If you’ll indulge my strained comparison yet further … well, Riley isn’t the Iron Horse. No, I’m not talking about the attributes of the players here. It’s about the nature of the roster situation. Riley wasn’t called up to replace Donaldson, who unlike Pipp has been both effective and healthy this year. But third base is Riley’s natural position. And Donaldson will be a free agent at season’s end. Markakis is also a free agent. Really, when you look ahead to the Braves’ 2020 roster, there’s just one sure thing in the outfield: Acuna.

Given that situation, keeping the respected and familiar Inciarte on hand would make a ton of sense. He could re-take his semi-regular role in center or platoon with a right-handed-hitting player (perhaps even Adam Duvall, who is still stuck at Triple-A). That’d help the Braves bridge the gap to Cristian Pache and other young talents.

Inciarte’s extension calls for a reasonable $7MM salary in 2020, with $8MM for the following year and a $9MM club option thereafter. That’s still a nice price tag for a thrifty Atlanta organization. If they swing some big trades, signings, and/or promotions and no longer wish to keep Inciarte, the contract ought still to be movable.

To be sure, moving Inciarte should (and no doubt would) be considered if there’s an appealing-enough offer. But making a trade now would likely mean selling low. It’d cut into the team’s depth and flexibility, this season and in the near future. And it probably isn’t necessary — or shouldn’t be, anyway. The club is still loaded with young talent, not all of which can be maintained easily within the constraints of MLB’s roster rules. And it shouldn’t need to shed salary (or avoid taking it on) to acquire any desired mid-season upgrades, since the team expressly reserved payroll capacity for the middle of the season.

2019 MLB Draft Resources

By Jeff Todd | May 30, 2019 at 11:07am CDT

Baseball’s 2019 Rule 4 amateur draft will take begin on Monday, June 3rd. Between now and then, you may wish to acquaint yourself further with some of the young players who’ll be selected. There’ll be new mock drafts and added analysis in the days to come, but this slate of links provides an excellent starting point:

When the clock strikes midnight on the 2nd, the possibility of draft compensation for Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel will vanish … thus finalizing the overall allocation of draft picks and bonus availability.
Fangraphs mock draft & draft board
MLB.com mock draft & top 200 draft rankings
Keith Law mock draft (subscription required) & top 50 draft rankings (subscription required)
Baseball America mock draft (subscription required) & top 500 draft rankings (subscription required)
The Athletic beat reporter selections (subscription required)
One notable draft-eligible player, Carter Stewart, has elected instead to head to Japan. And you may also want to catch up on the latest chatter regarding the possibility of an international draft.

Carlos Correa Diagnosed With Fractured Rib

By Jeff Todd | May 29, 2019 at 4:45pm CDT

4:45pm: Correa has issued a statement on the injury, which occurred off the field (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan):

“I’m extremely disappointed about not being on the field with my teammates. I sustained the rib fracture during a massage at my home on Tuesday. To sustain an injury in such an unusual way makes it even more frustrating. However, I will work hard to get back on the field as quickly as possible to help our team achieve our goal of winning another championship.”

10:57am: Astros star Carlos Correa has been diagnosed with a fractured rib, Mark Berman of FOX 26 reported (via Twitter) and the team has since announced. He’s expected to be sidelined for four to six weeks and will obviously be headed for a stint on the injured list.

It’s a disappointing development for the Houston organization and its 24-year-old shortstop, who had hoped for a fully healthy season on the heels of an injury-limited 2018 campaign. Fortunately, it does not appear this issue is connected to the back and oblique issues Correa experienced last year.

Correa had looked himself in the first fifty games of the new year. Through 214 plate appearances, he carries a hefty .295/.360/.547 batting line with 11 home runs — good for a 143 wRC+.

The injury doesn’t change Correa’s revived outlook at the plate, but it will again impact his earning power. He took down a $5MM salary after winning an arbitration hearing against the ’Stros. That’s a nice start, but not the kind of scratch he’d have commanded with a typical and healthy platform season. Missing time this year will similarly limit his ability to build up a raise in his second (and second-to-last) season of arb eligibility.

Correa joins fellow stars George Springer and Jose Altuve on the injured list. Notably, reserve infielder Aledmys Diaz is also sidelined, creating some obvious challenges in the middle infield.

This being the Astros, there are still ample possibilities on hand. Alex Bregman would be a superstar at shortstop had he not been bumped to third base due to Correa, so he can slide over. The team can shift Yuli Gurriel to third, but after that it’ll need to rely on less-established players.

Infielder/outfielder Myles Straw has been summoned from Triple-A to take the open roster spot. He has played almost exclusively as an outfielder as a professional, but began spending time at shortstop this year at Triple-A. Straw and the just-promoted Jack Mayfield could share time at second base and chip in on the left side of the infield.

Both those players have a good case for a chance at the majors, though it’d be unreasonable to expect them to fill the shoes of Correa and Altuve. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow said he’d at least take a look at the external options, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets, though he noted that he’s comfortable with the organization’s overall middle-infield depth.

Red Sox Place Mitch Moreland On IL, Change Bullpen Mix

By Jeff Todd | May 29, 2019 at 12:33pm CDT

The Red Sox announced a series of roster moves today. First baseman Mitch Moreland is headed to the 10-day injured list with a lower back strain, helping to free up roster space for some tweaks to the team’s bullpen mix.

Lefty Josh Taylor will be promoted for his first taste of the majors. He had already been added to the 40-man roster last fall to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. The Sox also sent down Travis Lakins after his tough outing last night, recalling fellow right-hander Colten Brewer.

Moreland had been down for a few days already, though his absence had been attributed to a knee contusion. He has also dealt with minor back issues in the recent past. Rather than pushing him to return, the Sox will allow the left-handed-hitting first bagger some time to recuperate.

Thus far at Triple-A, Taylor carries a 2.91 ERA with 29 strikeouts and nine walks. The 26-year-old gives the Sox a much-needed southpaw presence in their relief unit. As we discussed earlier this morning, the Boston pen has struggled to retire opposing lefty hitters. Taylor has actually struggled quite a bit against lefty hitters this year in the highest level of the minors, surrendering a cumulative .286/.364/.500 batting line, though he has carried more typical platoon splits in prior seasons.

Dinelson Lamet Begins Rehab Assignment

By Jeff Todd | May 29, 2019 at 10:22am CDT

The Padres announced today that righty Dinelson Lamet will begin a rehab assignment. He’ll open at the High-A level.

Lamet underwent Tommy John surgery last April, so this will represent his return to competitive pitching. His timeline will surely be determined by his progress on the mound, but this move will start a thirty-day clock for the completion of the rehab assignment. (As Dennis Lin of The Athletic notes on Twitter, the team can request up to three ten-day extensions if needed.)

Barring a setback, Lamet will presumably be activated before the end of June. It’s possible he’ll move back into the San Diego rotation at some point next month, though the club could also ultimately decide upon an optional assignment depending upon what he shows.

Lamet entered the year with 1.130 years of MLB service already accrued. He’s continuing to pick up service while on the injured list, so he’ll finish the season with 2.130 years on his ticker if he spends all (or virtually all) of the year in the majors once his rehab assignment wraps up. That could put him in line for Super Two status next year, though the precise cutoff is not yet known.

For the Friars, Lamet’s progress could have a significant bearing on the team’s postseason hopes. He showed plenty of promise in his debut campaign of 2017, working to a 4.57 ERA with 10.9 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over 114 1/3 innings, and could represent a notable addition to a rotation that has (not unexpectedly) gone through some ups and downs to this point of the season.

A pair of other San Diego players are also set to begin their own rehab assignments. Utilityman Jose Pirela and outfielder Franchy Cordero will report to Triple-A, the former today and the latter on Friday.

Yankees Activate James Paxton

By Jeff Todd | May 29, 2019 at 9:47am CDT

As anticipated, the Yankees have activated lefty James Paxton to start today’s game. The team had previously optioned righty Joe Harvey to open a roster spot.

Paxton had been sidelined since early May with a left knee injury. He’s still not quite at full health, as Zach Braziller of the New York Post was among those to report, but it seems the assessment is that he won’t be putting himself at risk of greater injury by returning to the mound. Paxton will be activated without making a rehab appearance.

The 30-year-old hurler turned in seven strong outings to open his Yankees career, working to a 3.11 ERA with 52 strikeouts and 13 walks in 37 2/3 frames. He was in dominating form, sitting comfortably in the mid-nineties with his fastball and generating swings and misses with 14.1% of his pitches.

Paxton’s return is an unquestionable boon to the Bronx Bombers, not that they have seemed in particular need of help. The club has more than weathered an injury barrage, moving into first-place position in the AL East.

Staying ahead of the Rays and Red Sox won’t come easy. Getting Paxton back into the rotation will help, though the rotation still figures to be an area to target for improvement over the summer. J.A. Happ has struggled to open the year, while Jonathan Loaisiga, CC Sabathia, and Luis Severino are all presently on the injured list.

AL West Notes: Leclerc, Gallo, Trout, Upton

By Jeff Todd | May 29, 2019 at 9:05am CDT

The Rangers will deploy reliever Jose Leclerc as an opener in today’s game, the club announced. He’ll throw in front of Drew Smyly. The 25-year-old Leclerc will open for the second time this year. He entered the campaign as the indisputable closer after inking an extension over the winter, but lost that job when his prior control problems resurfaced. It seems the Rangers are looking to provide some stability for the live-armed hurler, who has dealt with minor shoulder and calf issues recently. Otherwise, he has been much more impressive of late, with a whopping 16:1 K/BB ratio in his last seven frames.

Red Sox Bullpen Facing Renewed Questions

By Jeff Todd | May 29, 2019 at 7:33am CDT

It’s easy to overreact to bullpen implosions, particularly when they cost a team a seemingly surefire lead. Last night’s meltdown at Fenway not only cost the Red Sox a win, but played to some of the major fears entering the season.

As Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes, the collapse against a tepid Indians lineup featured messy appearances from Ryan Brasier, Marcus Walden, and Travis Lakins. While Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes weren’t charged with any runs, they didn’t really help with the ugliest stat line to emerge from the evening: the Boston pen recorded just one strikeout against seven walks.

The bullpen was the source of much consternation when camp broke. In particular, many worried about the failure to add established arms to a late-inning unit that bid adieu to closer Craig Kimbrel.

As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote in reviewing the club’s offseason efforts, the “nightmare scenario” some posited was an overreaction. But he also noted that the decision not to bring in additional high-leverage arms — which would also have deepened the middle relief unit — was a “risky strategy.” After all, Polishuk reasoned, “settling for even a middle-of-the-pack bullpen for a few months could cost the Red Sox” in a tight division race.

Every win matters, and it’d always be preferable to have another elite arm to call upon. But after observing the Boston relief unit for one-third of the season, it’s hard to call it a problem. Combined, the group carries a solid 3.92 ERA that ranks in the top third leaguewide. Fielding-independent pitching metrics concur with that general placement.

Have things gotten worse of late? The unit has recorded as many blown saves in the past two weeks (4) as have the Nationals, but other teams have more and that’s not necessarily a worthwhile metric to go by in evaluating overall bullpen health. Despite grading in the middle of the pack on the season, Sox relievers have suddenly become walk-happy over the past two weeks with a league-worst 13.3% BB rate. Still, that seems like a short-sample blip. Overall results have actually ticked up over the past month, with the relief corps combining for a 3.21 ERA.

If a true, overarching issue has cropped up it may relate to Ryan Brasier. Expected to function as a core part of the high-leverage group after last year’s surprise emergence, Brasier has fallen on hard times of late. As Speier notes, the righty has been tagged for five long balls in his last 22 2/3 innings of action. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com looked further at Brasier’s struggles.

But even if Brasier has stepped back, the Red Sox have seen others emerge. Barnes has doubled down on his strong 2018 season. Though he’s allowing too many walks, Workman has done the same, carrying stepped-up swinging-strike and strikeout numbers. And Walden has been excellent in his first full season in the majors, with a pleasing mix of K’s and grounders to support a 2.05 ERA.

To be sure, the remainder of the outfit isn’t as strong, but that’s a nice trio. Heath Hembree has been useful and Brasier still holds out hope of a bounceback. The team’s rotating cast of other relief pitchers has yet to find sustained success, but that’s a common issue around the league.

It’s certainly not difficult to see the merits of a mid-season acquisition or two. But really, who didn’t see that coming for a team that obviously prioritized other areas in the offseason? What’s more surprising is that the assembled group has performed so well for such a sustained stretch. Most any relief unit will produce moments like last night; plenty of others haven’t been capable of the sturdy results produced to this point by Boston’s hurlers.

Better still, further improvement might be found without a budget or farm-busting move for a high-end closer. The one area where the righty-heavy Sox have clearly struggled is in retiring opposing left-handed hitters. The relief unit has been tagged for a 5.31 ERA and 1.70 HR/9 by southpaw batters. Adding even one quality situational lefty could help smooth out this bump and make it easier for skipper Alex Cora to get the ball to his most reliable relievers in the late innings.

Cubs Injury Updates: Bryant, Baez, Strop, Montgomery

By Jeff Todd | May 29, 2019 at 6:30am CDT

There are a variety of open health issues for the Cubs, though thankfully it seems most are heading in a generally positive direction. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times rounded up the latest updates.

Kris Bryant and Javy Baez aren’t far from returning to the Cubs infield. The former has been out of the lineup for two games after a collision, while the latter has been in the DH slot to help rest a minor heel injury. Both could get back to their regular duties as soon as today.

Keeping those star players healthy is all the more important with Ben Zobrist’s status in question. Still, the Cubs have ample infield/utility depth, particularly with Addison Russell joining a roster that already included David Bote and Daniel Descalso. It’s worth remembering that Ian Happ remains marooned at Triple-A, as well.

With some recent bullpen hiccups, it’s also notable that reliever Pedro Strop is on the mend and nearing activation. He seems to be on the fast track back now that his hamstring is back in good working order. Strop made it through a rehab appearance last night and will work another frame Thursday. Wittenmyer says that the veteran hurler could be activated thereafter.

Strop had served as the Cubs closer before he went down. Whether he’ll take that job back from Steve Cishek remains to be seen. Regardless, it’s good news for the depth of the late-inning mix.

There was also a positive update on the team’s most flexible hurler, swingman Mike Montgomery. He was unable to pitch in Monday’s contest due to a finger issue that arose while he warmed up. The southpaw says he was likely dealing with a popped blood vessel, but wasn’t bothered as much when he picked up a ball yesterday. It’s not clear precisely when he’ll be available, but it seems reasonable to hope for a rather speedy return.

White Sox Place Ryan Burr On 10-Day IL

By Jeff Todd | May 28, 2019 at 12:59pm CDT

The White Sox announced today that reliever Ryan Burr has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He’s said to be dealing with a right elbow capsule strain.

In Burr’s place, fellow righty Jose Ruiz has been recalled. He already had a 40-man spot so no further roster moves are required.

Burr, who turns 25 today, had been off to a reasonably useful start to the year. While he has allowed ten earned runs in 19 2/3 innings, he’s sporting a solid 20:8 K/BB ratio. Burr’s 8.7% swinging-strike rate isn’t overly impressive, but he’s drawing grounders at a 47.4% clip and clocking in with a strong 95.7 mph average heater.

It isn’t clear at this point how severe the injury is or what kind of timetable might be anticipated. Burr’s IL placement is retroactive to May 25th. The White Sox pen hasn’t exactly been a stellar unit this year. Though it sits in the middle of the pack in terms of ERA, it’s a bottom-three outfit by measure of SIERA.

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