Headlines

Author: Jeff Todd

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Gerrit Cole Swap

By | at January 15, 2018 8:25am CDT

Gerrit Cole is a highly visible player — a former first overall pick who landed fourth in the National League Cy Young vote in 2015 — so it’s natural there will be strong opinions about the return he drew in the recent swap between the Pirates and Astros. We have already seen a variety of industry opinions pour in (see here, here, here, and here), but I thought it’d be worth taking the temperature of the MLBTR readership.

There’s little reason to full describe the elements of the agreement. (MLBTR’s Conny Byrne discussed all relevant elements in detail in his post on the Cole trade.) But here’s a brief account for purposes of facilitating today’s poll:

Astros receive:

  • 2 years of control over SP Gerrit Cole ($6.75MM for 2018; arbitration for 2019) — following aforementioned 2015 season, Cole was limited by injury in 2016 and pitched to a 4.26 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in a healthy 2017 season

Pirates receive:

  • 4 years of control over RP Michael Feliz — carries 5.13 ERA (allowing 1.5 HR/9) through 121 MLB innings, but has averaged 12.8 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9
  • 5 years of control over SP/RP Joe Musgrove — former first-round pick has been tagged for a .288/.339/.506 slash and 5.37 ERA over 25 MLB starts, but worked to a 1.26 ERA with 39:6 K/BB ratio in 35 2/3 innings last year after moving to the bullpen
  • 6 years of control over 3B Colin Moran — former sixth overall draft pick slashed .308/.373/.543 with 18 home runs in 338 plate appearances at Triple-A last year, but has yet to receive significant time in the majors
  • 6 years of control over OF Jason Martin — 22-year-old reached Double-A for first time in 2017, slashing .273/.319/.483 with 11 home runs in 320 plate appearances

Since there are two teams involved with their own set of needs, we’ll ask for grades from each organization’s perspective. For Pittsburgh, clearly, the move was designed to add multiple assets that can deliver value over a longer time frame. If even one of these players really succeeds, it could end up standing as a win. Also of note: the Bucs are said to have passed up a chance at gaining one higher-grade prospect (Clint Frazier of the Yankees) in order to add several contributors.

(Poll link for app users.)

Grade the Pirates' Trade of Gerrit Cole

  • C 33% (7,115)
  • B 29% (6,274)
  • D 19% (4,067)
  • F 10% (2,038)
  • A 9% (1,912)

Total votes: 21,406

On the Houston side, it’s all the more clear. The team resisted parting with its own blue-chip prospects, but gave a variety of useful pieces up to acquire just two seasons of Cole. If one views him as even a quality and durable mid-rotation starter, and does not think the assets parted with will come back to haunt the ‘Stros, then this could be seen as a bargain. On the other hand, there are some questions surrounding Cole and it is not difficult to imagine one or more of the more controllable assets sent to Pittsburgh delivering greater value than will Cole’s final two arb years.

(Poll link for app users.)

Grade the Astros' Acquisition of Gerrit Cole

  • A 51% (9,850)
  • B 36% (6,991)
  • C 9% (1,713)
  • D 2% (363)
  • F 1% (238)

Total votes: 19,155

129 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Houston Astros Pittsburgh Pirates

Arbitration Updates: 1/13/18

By | at January 13, 2018 4:22pm CDT

Here are the arbitration numbers we’ve learned thus far today — all of them coming via the Twitter feed of Jon Heyman of Fan Rag unless otherwise noted:

  • The Giants‘ previously known deals with two righty relievers now have dollar values attached. Sam Dyson is slated to earn $4.425MM, while the team will pay righty Cory Gearrin $1.675MM. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected a $4.6MM award for Dyson and a $1.6MM salary for Gearrin.
  • Diamondbacks infielder Chris Owings settled out at $3.4MM, just a shade over the $3.3MM the team will pay outfielder David Peralta. Swartz had both Owings and Peralta at $3.8MM.
  • Right-hander Nick Vincent will take down a $2.75MM payday from the Mariners, coming in just north of his $2.7MM projection.
  • Astros righty Lance McCullers Jr. is set to receive $2.45MM (a bit shy of his projected $2.6MM) in his first season of arb eligibility, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
  • Infielder Hernan Perez receives $1.975MM from the Brewers, falling short of a $2.2MM projection.
  • The Athletics agreed yesterday with righty Liam Hendriks at $1.9MM, matching his projection, and catcher Josh Phegley for $905K. Swartz had Phegley at $1.1MM.
  • White Sox third baseman Yolmer Sanchez has filed at $2.35MM while the team countered at $2.1MM – the same as his projection.
6 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Arizona Diamondbacks Athletics Chicago White Sox Houston Astros Milwaukee Brewers San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners

Market Notes: Dipoto, Cubs, Darvish, Athletics

By | at January 13, 2018 12:19am CDT

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto discussed some of his methods of trade mayhem on the latest run of his podcast. (Find the audio and some choice quotes compiled by MLB.com’s Greg Johns.) The team’s acquisition of Dee Gordon came together via texts that Dipoto sent from an airplane, says the executive. He also copped to extensive GIF and emoji usage in his negotiations, when appropriate.

Dipoto, of course, has become known for his sheer volume of moves, which perhaps stands out all the more in a market setting that is still mostly on ice. Here’s the latest:

  • The Cubs are “not done” and are focused especially on the pitching staff, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said today (via ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers). He said it’s still possible the organization will pursue “depth moves” or that it will add “another real quality pitcher.” Is free agent Jake Arrieta still a possibility? “We’ve never ruled anything out with him,” says Epstein, as MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets.
  • Chicago is said to be among a handful or more of teams still in the hunt for top free agent starter Yu Darvish, who has himself added intrigue to the market with some comments from his Twitter account. After musing recently on a mystery team, Darvish again took to the airwaves today to address the interest of the Yankees. After first suggesting the team had not made him an offer, the veteran righty then tweeted he had received one — but that “the numbers are not correct.” That said, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports (via Twitter) that New York has not, in fact, put together a contract proposal for Darvish. The Yanks have long seemed a lurking but less-than-perfect potential suitor, given the team’s interest in staying below the luxury tax line this year.
  • Meanwhile, the Athletics seem to be targeting a lefty in the bullpen, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Per Shea, Oakland has ongoing interest in Tony Watson and has also engaged Brian Duensing in talks. Both veteran free agents are among the best relievers still left on the open market. Indeed, it’s not hard at all to make the case that they are the two most appealing southpaws still looking for new homes.
111 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Athletics Chicago Cubs New York Yankees Seattle Mariners

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/12/18

By | at January 12, 2018 10:29pm CDT

The Braves released Adonis Garcia recently to allow him to move to the KBO, and the full set of transactions is now in the books. The 32-year-old third baseman has inked a $800K deal with the LG Twins, as Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net notes on Twitter. He played in the majors in each of the past three seasons but clearly was not a part of Atlanta’s plans for 2018.

Let’s catch up on a few minor moves from around the game, all courtesy of SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (links to Twitter) …

  • Righty Tyler Cloyd will join the Marlins on a minors pact. Now thirty years off age, Cloyd has made just a single MLB appearance since wrapping up his time with the Phillies in 2013. He spent most of 2017 pitching at Triple-A in the Mariners organization, where he worked to a 5.67 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 60 1/3 innings. While the output hasn’t been very encouraging of late, Cloyd could have a chance to push for an important place on the Miami depth chart. The rebuilding club is sure to have some pitching opportunities in the season to come.
  • The Nationals added right-hander Justin Miller as well as slugger Balbino Fuenmayor on minor-league deals. Miller, 30 has seen 88 1/3 total MLB innings, spread over the 2014-16 campaigns, with a composite 4.99 ERA. He has shown some swing and miss ability at times, though. Last year, he pitched to a 5.48 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 46 frames in the PCL. The 28-year-old Fuenmayor, meanwhile, played in Mexico last year after his once-prodigious upper-minors power output fizzled in 2016. He hit well in Mexico and has continued to rake in Venezuelan winter action.
  • Southpaw James Russell is headed to the Tigers organization on a non-roster arrangement. Whether he’ll receive a camp invite isn’t known in this case (or the others). The 32-year-old is long removed from his days as a solid bullpen presence. He last appeared in the majors, rather briefly, in 2016. Though he only threw 31 professional innings last year, all in the Mexican League, they were in a starting role. He worked to a 2.03 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9.
10 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Detroit Tigers Miami Marlins Minnesota Twins Philadelphia Phillies Transactions Washington Nationals

Marlins To Sign Jumbo Diaz

By | at January 12, 2018 8:14pm CDT

The Marlins have inked a minors deal with righty Jumbo Diaz, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). He’ll receive an invitation to participate in MLB camp.

Diaz, whose nickname aptly conveys his notable presence on the mound, has thrown 168 total MLB innings over the past four seasons. After three years with the Reds, he pitched last year for the Rays. In the aggregate, he owns a 4.02 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9.

While Diaz cracked the active roster out of camp, and delivered his fastball with its typical zip, he was touched for 19 earned runs in thirty frames before being designated for assignment. At his best, Diaz generates a healthy volume of harmless infield pop-ups along with a decent number of swings and misses, though he sat at a below-average 10.4% swinging-strike rate (as against other relievers) in 2017.

For the rebuilding Marlins, players such as Diaz offer the possibility of useful output at a bargain price. It would appear that the 33-year-old has a solid shot at earning a roster spot in Spring Training.

34 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Miami Marlins Transactions

Unresolved 2018 Arbitration Cases

By | at January 12, 2018 6:02pm CDT

We’ve covered a whole lot of arbitration deals today, many of them reached before today’s deadline to exchange filing figures. Some other agreements have come together after team and player submitted their numbers. It’s still possible, of course, that these situations will be resolved before an arbitration hearing becomes necessary. (At this point, we seem to lack full clarity on teams’ approaches to negotiations after the filing deadline. And most organizations make exceptions for multi-year deals even if they have a file-and-trial stance.)

Some situations could even be dealt with in short order. As things stand, though, these unresolved arbitration cases could turn into significant hearings. (As always, MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration projections can be found here; you will also want to reference MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration tracker.)

60 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Arizona Diamondbacks Athletics Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Miami Marlins Minnesota Twins New York Mets Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays

Astros Avoid Arbitration With Dallas Keuchel

By | at January 12, 2018 3:57pm CDT

The Astros have settled with starter Dallas Keuchel, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle first tweeted. Keuchel will earn $13.2MM, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).

Notably, the Astros have not been able to work out agreements wit a few other important players. Outfielder George Springer, reliever Ken Giles, and starter Collin McHugh will file figures, Kaplan tweets, though of course it’s still possible they will settle before going to a hearing.

Keuchel, 30, posted a strong 2.90 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 on the year in 2017, though he was limited by injury to 145 2/3 innings. That tamped down on his earning power somewhat, though Keuchel still earns a healthy raise on his $9.15MM salary from 2017. He had been projected to earn $12.6MM by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz, but tops that figure by $600K.

As things stand, this’ll be Keuchel’s final season in Houston. He’ll hit the open market after the 2018 campaign unless the sides are able to work out a longer-term agreement at some point.

17 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Houston Astros Transactions

Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Manny Machado

By | at January 12, 2018 3:19pm CDT

Despite earlier indications to the contrary, the Orioles have agreed to avoid arbitration with third baseman Manny Machado, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). A prior report from Feinsand indicated the sides were headed for a hearing, but they have instead settled at $16MM.

Baltimore and Machado had actually exchanged figures earlier this afternoon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. But they were evidently able to bridge the gap after each saw the other’s formal position.

The model operated by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected that Machado would earn $17.3MM in his final trip through the arbitration process. As Swartz went on to write, though, comparables suggested Machado would likely earn a fair bit less.

That’s just what happened, as the 25-year-old was not able to replicate the hefty $6.5MM raise he earned before the 2017 season. Though he still launched over thirty home runs and was a quality all-around performer, Machado’s overall offensive output drooped significantly. He ended the year with a .259/.310/.471 slash line.

It has been an eventful offseason to date for the Orioles and Machado, whose name has appeared consistently in trade rumors. While the O’s are still said to be willing to listen to offers on the pending free agent superstar, the club is also not actively shopping him at this point. That said, there’s little indication to this point that Baltimore will have much of a shot at working out a deal to keep Machado from reaching the open market.

45 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Baltimore Orioles Transactions

Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Kris Bryant

By | at January 12, 2018 3:09pm CDT

The Cubs have reached a record-setting deal with star third baseman Kris Bryant, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He will earn $10.85MM, setting a new high-water mark for first-time arb-eligible players.

Previously, Ryan Howard held the record for the biggest arbitration payout to a player entering the process for the first time. His $10MM mark had held sway since 2010. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz broke down Bryant’s case recently, suggesting he felt it somewhat more likely that Bryant would not quite top Howard.

Of course, there could be other factors weighing on the situation, including the controversy over Bryant’s initial promotion timeline and the fact that the Cubs would no doubt like to work out an extension if possible. Paying a bit extra and giving Bryant a record-setting deal may end up working to Chicago’s benefit. And it was no doubt preferable for the club to steer clear of a hearing.

In the spring of 2015, Chicago decided not to take Bryant north with the MLB club when it broke camp, instead waiting a few weeks to bring him up for his first big league action. That delay left the Cubs free to control him through 2021, rather than 2020, but spurred a grievance action and also left Bryant eligible to qualify for arbitration in 2018 — meaning he’ll get four bites at the apple through the arb process.

The Cubs’ approach still clearly favors the organization in the long run. But Bryant nevertheless now stands to take down some massive earnings throughout the arbitration process. He’ll have three more seasons to tack raises on top of his hefty $10.85MM starting point.

29 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Chicago Cubs Newsstand Transactions

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Anthony Rendon

By | at January 12, 2018 2:08pm CDT

The Nationals have agreed to a 2018 contract with third baseman Anthony Rendon, the team announced. He’s set to earn $12.3MM, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter).

It’s little surprise to see Rendon cash in a big raise in his third arbitration campaign. After earning $2.8MM as a Super Two and $5.8MM in 2017, he had a strong base to work with. On the heels of a monster season, he was primed for another substantial bump. The final amount exceeds the $11.5MM that MLBTR had projected.

Rendon was one of the game’s most productive all-around players, with big-time offensive production and top-end defense leaving him with a sixth-place finish in the NL MVP vote. As always, a few key offensive numbers drive arb earnings, and Rendon performed quite well there. In 605 plate appearances, he slashed .301/.403/.533 with 25 home runs and 100 runs batted in.

While agreeing to a salary for the coming season takes care of the most immediate business between Rendon and the Nats, it’ll be interesting to see whether the sides continue discussions into camp. Rendon certainly features as a possible extension candidate.

13 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Transactions Washington Nationals
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors