Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/11/18
With tomorrow’s deadline for exchanging arbitration figures looming, arbitration agreements are likely to flow freely — particularly with a newly universal file-and-trial stance spurring things along. As always, MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Projections and 2018 MLB Arbitration Tracker are the places to go for more information. We’ll track today’s deals right here:
- D-backs lefty Patrick Corbin has signed a one-year contract for the 2018 season, the club announced tonight. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Corbin, who will be a free agent next season, will earn $7.5MM in his final season of arbitration. That comes in shy of his $8.3MM projection, though it’s nonetheless nearly twice what he made in 2017 ($3.95MM).
- The Blue Jays avoided arbitration with outfielder Ezequiel Carrera and lefty Aaron Loup, per Nightengale (Twitter links). Carrera’s $1.9MM salary matches his projection, while Loup’s $1.8125MM payday is slightly north of his own $1.8MM projection. Loup will be a free agent next winter, while Carrera is controlled through 2019.
- Nightengale also tweets that Angels catcher Martin Maldonado has agreed to a $3.9MM salary for the upcoming season, meaning the reigning AL Gold Glove winner behind the dish rather handily trounced his $2.8MM projection. Maldonado, 31, is also entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent next winter.
Earlier Agreements
Market Notes: Slow Offseason, Bruce, Giants, Cubs, Werth, K-Rod
As the free agent market continues to plod along, observers have continued to search for explanations. Of course, it’s worth bearing in mind that we’ve been weighing this topic this since late November, when it was already apparent that there were some forces at play that were slowing down signings. The full story has yet to be told, and won’t be until the market resolves itself, but it’s still worthwhile to think about the potential causes and ramifications.
In one of his last posts for Fangraphs, Dave Cameron observes that a lack of parity — on paper, at least — may be one cause of the glacial pace of signings. With leading organizations perhaps preferring to wait to see how their needs develop, and their top pursuers left unsure whether even significant investments will be enough, the current competitive imbalance could be helping to slow the market, Cameron argues.
Let’s take a look at a few links as the hot stove perhaps begins to sputter to life:
- Many others have also tackled the confounding nature of this year’s market in recent days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests there’s a “lack of engagement,” not just a lack of deals, in a report that indicates that some agents believe there may be a budding case for collusion. SB Nation’s Marc Normandin takes a historically oriented perspective, examining baseball’s history of collusive behavior and placing the currently stalled market in that context. SI’s Tom Verducci runs through the possible drivers of the slow-down. At Fangraphs, Travis Sawchik wonders if Boras’ approach still works, while Kiley McDaniel (welcome back!) examines the current state of teams’ efforts to find competitive advantage by allocating resources between scouting and analytics. (That last point ties into the view many have expressed that the slow market stems in part from an increasing convergence, as McDaniel terms it, in player valuations and strategies across organizations.)
- The Giants‘ top offer to Jay Bruce was at the three-year level but would have promised about $10MM less to him than the $39MM he ultimately scored from the Mets, according to reports from Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link) and Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). It seems that San Francisco was hoping to get some pop into the lineup at a bit of a discount, which is certainly understandable given the still-lengthy list of potential targets available in free agency and on the trade market. One additional name that has long been linked to the Giants, Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates, remains of interest, Nightengale further notes. There’s also a case to be made that the Giants ought to take the opportunity presented by the slow market development while forgetting about the luxury tax line this year, as Andrew Baggarly writes for The Athletic. Of course, that’s also true for a few other teams, and it’s arguable that such interest will help prop things up once player movement begins in earnest.
- There are still ongoing signals that the Cubs could make a splash. As Paul Sullivan writes for the Chicago Tribune, surprise winter additions are fairly commonplace in Wrigleyville. Manager Joe Maddon suggested yesterday that he believes the front office is still looking to build out the roster, Madeline Kenney of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Maddon spoke highly of both Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb, Kenney writes, and the skipper also hinted that president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer may not yet be done in adding pieces to the bullpen mix for the 2018 campaign.
- Seeking value will no doubt still drive Chicago, but it’s an imperative for the Indians. Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer names 15 free agents who might represent highly affordable targets for the Cleveland organization. Buttressing the relief corps and adding a righty bat seem to be the top priorities, Hoynes notes.
- Free agent outfielder Jayson Werth has given no indication that he’s readying for retirement. To the contrary, he tells ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick that he believes he can play for multiple additional seasons (Twitter links). There’s been little indication to this point that any particular teams are in pursuit of the 38-year-old after a rough and injury-limited 2017 campaign, but that could change once the market gets moving. Werth has posted decidedly subpar offensive lines in two of the past three seasons, but did hit at a league-average-ish .244/.355/.417 clip in 2016 and has continued to hit well against lefties.
- Veteran righty Francisco Rodriguez tells Jon Heyman of Fan Rag that he’s readying for a return and feels he can bounce back from a miserable 2017 season. The 36-year-old almost always delivered results in his 15 prior seasons of MLB action but was tagged for nine homers and 22 earned runs in just 25 1/3 innings last year, with a swinging-strike rate that dropped out of double-digits for just the second time in his long and excellent career. “I still have plenty left,” Rodriguez tells Heyman. “I am hoping to get an opportunity to help a team win a championship. I’m physically way better than I was last year. I’m ready. If I didn’t have it, I’d say it. I’m a straight shooter – my own worst critic.” Rodriguez is not receiving much interest at this point but says he’ll gladly throw for scouts to earn another chance.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Cain, Hosmer, Giants, Bruce
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
Tigers Claim Johnny Barbato
The Tigers have claimed righty Johnny Barbato off waivers from the Pirates, the teams announced and Robert Murray of Fan Rag first tweeted. He was designated recently by Pittsburgh when the club claimed fellow righty Shane Carle.
Barbato, 25, saw 28 2/3 innings of action in 2017, managing a 4.08 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9. Needless to say, that walk tally will need to go down if Barbato hopes to succeed in the majors. He has never shown major control issues in the minors, though, and he did demonstrate a 94+ mph fastball and average (for a reliever) 11.3% swinging-strike rate.
White Sox Sign Miguel Gonzalez
The White Sox have officially agreed to a one-year deal with free agent righty Miguel Gonzalez, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported (via Twitter). He’ll receive a $4.75MM salary, the team announced (and as Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweeted). Outfielder Jacob May was designated for assignment to open a roster spot.
Gonzalez, 33, spent the bulk of the past two seasons in Chicago, though he was dealt away to the Rangers in late August. Now, he’ll return to help bolster a rotation that features several young hurlers as well as veteran James Shields.
For a rebuilding White Sox organization, adding Gonzalez fits with earlier moves. The club struck a contract with catcher Welington Castillo and dealt for veteran relievers Joakim Soria and Luis Avilan.
In sum, the moves have added about $28MM in commitments, most of it for the coming season, a manageable amount as the South Siders endeavor to supplement — and reduce the burden on — a budding young core. The White Sox roster still includes other veterans such as Shields, Jose Abreu, and Avisail Garcia. While Abreu and Garcia have arisen in trade talks, to this point indications are that they’ll likely stay put.
[RELATED: Updated White Sox Depth Chart]
Nobody will mistake the addition of Gonzalez as a signing designed to push for contention, but he has proven still capable of giving innings. In 2017, he threw 156 total frames over 27 starts, working to a 4.62 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Gonzalez carried career lows in average fastball velocity (91.2 mph) and swinging-strike rate (6.7%), though those figures aren’t wildly out of line with his established norms.
Beyond Gonzalez and Shields, the White Sox rotation will likely be made up of far less established pitchers. Youngsters Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Carson Fulmer all have top prospect pedigrees, but have yet to turn in full MLB seasons. Dylan Covey — who was actually once a first-round selection, going unsigned at that time — is also an option, though he struggled badly in his MLB debut in 2017. Carlos Rodon will be expected to hold down a spot once he’s at full health. The White Sox likely hope that top pitching prospect Michael Kopech will force his way into the picture at some point, though that’s no sure thing at present. All told, it’s not difficult to see why the organization felt it needed another reliable rotation piece.
As for the 25-year-old May, he made his MLB debut last year but struggled badly in a short sample. He has not fared much better at the plate in the upper minors; in 2017, he carried a .248/.307/.325 batting line in 467 Triple-A plate appearances.
Latest On J.D. Martinez
It has been known for some time that the Red Sox and J.D. Martinez have ongoing interest, with Boston reportedly dangling a five-year offer. In the latest update, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag writes that “acquaintances” of the open market’s top slugger believe Martinez is willing to wait to get a six-year deal — even if it means allowing camp to open without a contract in place.
Dollars remain uncertain, but Heyman provides some round numbers worth noting. Martinez is believed not only to be in search of six years, but at a premium rate of $30MM or more annually. To this point, the level of interest from teams is said to be “somewhere in the $120 million to $150 million range.”
Entering the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Martinez — who ranks second on the MLBTR list of the top 50 free agents — could land that sixth year, but at a $150MM total guarantee. We tabbed the Red Sox as the likeliest landing spot, with a variety of other teams standing as plausible alternatives.
The 30-year-old Martinez has unquestionably established himself as a top-flight hitter, with a .300/.362/.574 output at the plate since the start of 2014. That said, he lags somewhat in his glovework and baserunning. Poor grades from defensive metrics improved somewhat in 2017, though UZR and DRS both pegged Martinez as below-average in right. And Fangraphs has graded him as a notably sub-par presence on the basepaths in each of the past two seasons.
Despite his limitations, Martinez is understandably viewed as a top target. That status leaves significant leverage to work with for his agent, Scott Boras, who has frequently found big money late in the offseason. To date, Carlos Santana and Jay Bruce have each landed at or above MLBTR’s expectations with strong three-year deals, though neither broke through to earn the extra season they were seeking. Martinez and Boras evidently feel there’s still a possibility that they can convince a club to increase the commitment for a higher grade bat.
Heyman’s report indicates that organizations beyond the Red Sox are still in the hunt, which may help explain why Martinez has not been willing to move off his bargaining position. As he has suggested previously, Heyman says at least one other team has put five years on the table. Whether or not that’s the incumbent Diamondbacks is not known, but the report suggests Arizona is a serious suitor.
Still, all indications are that Boston is the most plausible fit. Reporters including Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston and WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford have examined things recently from the Sox’ perspective. The organization is obviously willing to plunk down some big cash for Martinez, but to this point has not been willing (or perhaps has not felt compelled) to promise another season. It also may still be factor that the Red Sox would plan to utilize Martinez primarily as a DH, while he’d prefer to play in the outfield.
Mets “Nearly” Struck Trade With Indians For Jason Kipnis
The Mets and Indians very nearly pulled off a deal that would have sent Jason Kipnis to New York, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Upper management — Heyman hints on the Mets side — ended up scuttling a deal that seemed to be in place.
Kipnis was widely rumored to be on New York’s radar last month. For the Mets, the veteran would have plugged a hole at second base. And for the Indians, the considerations were mostly financial, as Kipnis is due $30.5MM on his deal (covering two more seasons along with a buyout on a 2020 option).
It was money, it seems, that caused the hang-up here. While the prospect cost was not prohibitive, Heyman says that “Mets higher-ups didn’t see Kipnis as good value.” Whether Cleveland would have paid down any portion of the remaining obligations in the proposed agreement is not known.
At this point, it would appear that the odds of talks re-opening are low. The Mets just landed free agent slugger Jay Bruce in a move that will occupy a significant portion of their remaining payroll availability. On the Indians’ side, moving the Kipnis contract likely would have helped facilitate their pursuit of Carlos Santana, but he reportedly agreed to terms with the Phillies on December 15th — right after the Mets/Kipnis talk heated up and before it died down.
In any event, the Mets do still need a second baseman — or, perhaps, a third baseman who’d bump Asdrubal Cabrera over to second. As Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote this morning, it seems the club still has a variety of open-market possibilities to consider in the infield. Todd Frazier, Howie Kendrick, Neil Walker, and Jose Reyes are evidently still on the team’s radar, while other trade options are presumably still on the table. (Puma does suggest that free agent Mike Moustakas and trade candidate Starlin Castro are not seen as viable options.)
For the Indians, meanwhile, the latest indication is that the team will utilize Kipnis at his native position of second base after having bumped him to the outfield late last year. Presumably he could still be moved in the right deal, but the organization may also mostly be preparing to hang on and hope he can return to form. While Kipnis limped to a .232/.291/.414 batting line in an injury-limited 2017 season, he carried a composite .289/.357/.460 line over the prior two seasons and has typically graded as a quality defender.
Agent Jason Wood Fired From Agency, Suspended By MLBPA
6:48pm: Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports that Benintendi is not involved in the allegations against Wood. To this point, law enforcement is not involved in the matter, either. Drellich notes that a source “confirmed the nature of the allegation” to him.
6:12pm: Wood reached out to Passan to issue a staunch denial of the reported allegations against him (Twitter link):
“The allegations that have surfaced today are absurd and untrue. Over the past 13 years I have worked tirelessly to build a successful agency through integrity and hard work. I am disappointed that there are those who have chosen to spread such irresponsible and harmful rumors.”
3:27pm: Certified player agent Jason Wood has been fired from his post as head of the baseball division of the Career Sports Entertainment agency and suspended by the MLB Player’s Association, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. As Passan notes, and Robert Murray of Fan Rag Sports reports in more detail, Wood stands accused of using a hidden camera on his own clients.
Clearly, it’s premature to jump to any conclusions in this odd and troublesome story. Murray, though, says that seven sources tell him that Wood is under investigation by the union for “allegedly filming numerous clients while they were using his shower” — including one that found a camera and confronted the alleged perpetrator.
CSE has issued a statement from president Danny Martoe, which Passan conveyed on Twitter. It reads as follows:
“For over 32 years, CSE Talent has prided itself on our moral and ethical standards and have built a solid reputation within the industry. We take pride in working with people who represent these values. It’s unfortunate that CSE Talent aligned itself with someone who didn’t uphold these same standards and therefore we chose to terminate with cause Wood’s employment.”
Identities of the apparent victims of Wood are not known at this time. It’s also not clear whether there is any criminal investigation, though the situation certainly could warrant such treatment.
MLBTR’s agency database shows many of Wood’s client relationships. He had operated an entity known as Arland Sports, which is still reflected in the database but has since been purchased by the CSE agency. Just which of those players was still represented by Wood at the time the allegations arose is not known (agency switches often go unreported), though Andrew Benintendi was a known client, and Wood has also repped other notable MLB players such as Jake Odorizzi and David Phelps, as well as prospects Riley Pint, Joey Wentz, and Mitch Keller, among others.
Many of the players that had been represented by Wood are now said to be seeking alternative agencies. Keller has already terminated his relationship with CSE and hired Excel Sports Management, Murray tweets.
Braves Release Adonis Garcia To Pursue KBO Opportunity
The Braves have announced that third baseman Adonis Garcia was released to allow him to pursue an opportunity in the Korea Baseball Organization. Previous reports indicated that Garcia, who is represented by Don Nomura, had agreed to join Korea’s LG Twins.
Garcia, 32, had carved out a significant role in Atlanta, though he missed significant time due to a finger injury and struggled at the plate in 2017. In the prior season, though, he saw near-regular time, turning in 563 plate appearances of .273/.311/.406 hitting.
With the move, the Braves have parted with one possible option at third base. Just how they’ll fill it remains to be seen. At this point, youngster Johan Camargo — who emerged with an intriguing 2017 season — is perhaps the odds-on favorite to see most of the time. That said, the club may yet pursue alternatives on the open market or via trade.
Luhnow Refutes Report That Astros Have Deal For Gerrit Cole
2:44pm: The Astros are still engaged with the Pirates on Cole but are also still looking at alternatives, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).
11:15am: Recent chatter of a possible trade that would send right-hander Gerrit Cole from the Pirates to the Astros intensified early today, with multiple reports indicating the sides were gaining momentum. And Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter) reported that a deal was in place between the organizations that would send Cole to Houston.
Ensuing reports, though, cast doubt and then fully refuted that agreement had been reached. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow said that there was “nothing imminent” in any of the team’s trade talks, per Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). And Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported (Twitter links) first that the deal had not yet fully been completed and ultimately that the apparent news of an accord was simply a “false rumor.”
All told, it seems there’s no reason at this time to believe a deal is particularly close to coming to fruition, beyond the fact that the sides have evidently engaged in serious discussion. Passan says a trade “is not happening” right now, while noting “talks could pick back up quickly.” And Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter) suggests a trade “isn’t necessarily close.” Indeed, he also hears of another suitor being involved beyond the Yankees (the organization that once seemed likely to land Cole before those talks fizzled). With the necessary proviso that the situation can always change, then, it appears we’re mostly back to the status quo ante on Cole’s trade status.
Cole, now 27, remains a top trade candidate. He was the first overall pick in the 2011 draft. He ascended quickly to become Pittsburgh’s top pitcher, though he has not exactly been at his peak of late. In 2017, he worked to a 4.26 ERA in 203 frames. While that represented a promising return to full health after some limitations in 2016, it also was hardly the output that had come to be expected.
In 2015, after all, Cole had fully emerged as a staff ace, turning in 208 frames of 2.60 ERA ball with 8.7 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. While his velocity and key peripherals have largely held steady, Cole was tagged for 1.37 home runs per nine — over twice the rate he had maintained previously. As Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs explains, Cole’s heater surrendered quite a bit of added pop in 2017, but there’s reason to believe he can refine his offerings to regain his standing. Cole will cost a projected $7.5MM in 2018 with one more season of arbitration control thereafter.
For the ‘Stros, we’ve seen clear indication of late that the organization wishes to boost an already-strong rotation unit that was already boosted late last year with the addition of Justin Verlander. With Dallas Keuchel, youngster Lance McCullers, and the increasingly interesting Charlie Morton already on hand, along with breakout righty Brad Peacock, it seems Houston’s interest in starters is a want moreso than a need.
On the Bucs’ side, it’s still hard to know how things will play out this winter. Even if the team deals away Cole and other veteran trade candidates (most notably Andrew McCutchen), it may still have some designs on competing in ’18. But parting with Cole would unquestionably mean delivering a major blow to the team’s expectations for the coming season.
More broadly, questions persist about just when and how the player market will get moving in earnest. A deal involving Cole might have given some clarity to the outlook for free agent starters, while perhaps leaving the Astros free to dedicate financial resources to other needs (most notably, the bullpen). But with this prospective swap not occurring — at least at this time — we’re left with the same overall market landscape.