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Rangers Sign Blake Swihart, Brian Flynn, 3 Others

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The Rangers announced a host of minor-league deals this afternoon. Catcher/outfielder Blake Swihart, southpaw Brian Flynn, and righties Tim Dillard and Arturo Reyes all received spring invites. Reliever Matt Bush inked a two-year minors deal that doesn’t promise participation in MLB camp.

Swihart, 27, has just not managed to turn the corner at the game’s highest level. But he remains an intriguing talent and could be an interesting potential final bench piece if he shows well in camp. The former top-100 prospect owns a .243/.301/.355 batting line in 696 career plate appearances at the game’s highest level.

It seems harder to imagine Flynn cracking the Rangers’ relief unit after another tough season. Through 187 2/3 frames in the big leagues, he carries a 4.41 ERA with 6.4 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and a 42.4% groundball rate. The 29-year-old showed somewhat reduced velocity last year as well. But he has been able to keep the ball in the yard, which is something that couldn’t be said of quite a few fully established major leaguers in 2019.

Dillard, a former MLBTR contributor, will continue to function as a Triple-A pitching sage and bringer of merriment after a surprising return to the rotation in 2019. No small part of his role will be to help bring along players such as Reyes, a 27-year-old former Cardinals and Rays farmhand who has yet to crack the majors. Reyes owns a 4.96 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 330 career innings at Triple-A.

As for Bush, he’s going to miss a large portion of the coming season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. The Rangers obviously still see reason to hope that the 34-year-old can return to the form he showed in 2016-17, when he pitched to a 3.08 ERA over 114 innings.

Mets Sign Rick Porcello

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Dec. 16: The Mets have formally announced the signing.

Dec. 12: The Mets have struck a deal with free agent righty Rick Porcello, according to Ken Rosenthal and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a one-year, $10MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

This is a long-rumored match that’ll put the New Jersey native back in familiar territory. It’s a bit surprising to see now, though, after the Mets reportedly agreed yesterday to ink Michael Wacha. Both of these buy-low hurlers would figure to command rotation jobs, leaving the Mets with six clear candidates for the five-man unit. Whether or not that could produce a trade remains to be seen, but now appears plausible on paper.

Porcello, who’ll turn 31 later this month, is far removed from his surprising Cy Young season. There have been some lean years in between, but he has always answered the bell. Porcello has taken the ball for at least 32 starts in each of the past four campaigns and has only once failed to top 170 MLB frames in a season (2010, when he threw 162 2/3).

Any pitcher is a theoretical health risk, but Porcello’s record of durability is second to none. The Mets can safely assume they’ll get innings from their new starter … but of what quality?

Outside of a few particularly good and bad seasons, Porcello has mostly hovered around the low-4 ERA range. Through more than two thousand innings in the majors, he carries a 4.36 ERA that lines up with his lifetime peripherals: 6.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 47.5% groundball rate. Fielding-independent pitching metrics largely concur with the results (4.09 FIP; 4.03 xFIP; 4.09 SIERA).

The Mets would be glad to see Porcello take the ball thirty-plus times and settle right around that four-earned-per-nine mark. But will he? Other teams reportedly offered three-year arrangements in an effort to woo Porcello, so there’s obviously some belief in the game that it’s plausible. But he’s also coming off of his ugliest season as a big leaguer.

In 2019, Porcello struggled to a 5.52 ERA in 174 1/3 innings. ERA estimators weren’t much more positive (4.76 FIP; 5.15 xFIP; 4.86 SIERA). He isn’t allowing an alarming rate of home runs per flyball (13.1%), but hitters have had greater success getting the ball in the air against him. He averaged a personal-worst 38.1% grounder rate and personal-high 41.5% flyball rate in 2019.

Perhaps it’s just a matter of a few well-conceived tweaks. Porcello has lost a bit of arm speed, though he’s still within range of his typical velocity levels. Opposing batters produced bigger-than-usual levels in hard-hit rate (37.2%) and launch angle (15.5 degrees), though neither figure was wildly out of line with Porcello’s prior history. Likewise, Porcello’s swinging-strike rate of 8.0% was on the low side for his recent track record but not a signal of a drastic shift in physical tools or efficacy.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mets Agree To Sign Michael Wacha

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DECEMBER 15: Anthony DiComo of MLB.com has the breakdown on the incentives in Wacha’s contract. He’ll earn $500K for making 10, 14, and 18 starts, along with $500K for each start from 20-30. Finally, Wacha can earn $1.35MM worth of award bonuses. With $8.35MM worth of incentives, Wacha’s total earning potential for 2020 comes out to $11.35MM.

DECEMBER 11, 3:23pm: There’s a deal in place pending a physical, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). It guarantees $3MM, per Sherman (via Twitter), with up to $7MM in possible incentives.

3:09pm: The Mets are “working hard to finalize” a contract with righty Michael Wacha, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). If completed, it’ll be for a one-year term; financials have yet to be reported.

If this deal is wrapped up, Wacha would presumably round out the New York starting five. He’d also become the latest client of CAA — the former outfit of Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen — to join the New York organization.

It’s interesting to see Wacha heading in on a bounceback arrangement as Zack Wheeler departs with a huge contract. It wasn’t long ago that the former was seen as a major free agent target of the future, while the latter’s career was in limbo owing to health reasons.

Now, it’s Wacha who is trying to prove he can stay healthy and restore his former effectiveness. The former first-round pick has had some peaks to go with the valleys in recent years, but hasn’t looked like the budding young staff he was in 2013-15.

Last season, Wacha turned in a 4.76 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 over 126 2/3 innings. With balls flying out of the yard at a rate of 1.8 per nine, he was ultimately demoted to the bullpen. Wacha ended up averaging a career-low 93.4 mph with his fastball, though that’s only one tick off from his overall career average.

It’s tough to say just how much upside Wacha offers at this stage. He was able to stay on the mound for most of 2019 but hasn’t been as effective as he was before shoulder and back issues began to crop up. Statcast numbers don’t offer much in the way of encouragement; if anything, they suggest his strong ’18 output (3.20 ERA in 84 1/3 innings) was based upon some good fortune (.249 BABIP-against, .286 wOBA vs. .350 xwOBA). Still, it’s awfully tempting to dream on a powerhouse Mets rotation if Wacha and Steven Matz are able to turn in healthy and productive campaigns.

Twins To Sign Caleb Thielbar

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The Twins have agreed to bring hurler Caleb Thielbar back to the organization on a minors deal, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets. Further details aren’t known.

All of Thielbar’s MLB experience came in Minnesota between 2013 and 2015. He carried a 2.74 ERA in 98 2/3 innings, in fact. He only carried a 79:30 K/BB ratio but had success at tamping down the long ball and batting average on balls in play.

Since Thielbar’s chances fizzled out with the Twins and he never got another shot elsewhere, it seems there’s quite a lot of doubt as to whether he can really succeed over the long haul in the majors. He ended up spending two years on the indy ball circuit and hasn’t seen the bigs since. But he has been awfully stingy in the upper minors in the past two seasons. Last year, he ran up a 3.22 ERA with an eyebrow-raising 94:16 K/BB ratio over 78 1/3 innings in 51 appearances in the hitter-friendly International League.

Padres Considering Bumgarner, Keuchel

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We’ve heard many indications this winter that the Padres won’t be in the market for the very top free agents. While the biggest fish have landed elsewhere, there are still a few major players left for the bidding. And Jon Heyman of MLB Network suggests on Twitter that the Friars may still be involved.

Specifically, Heyman says, the San Diego organization is “taking close looks” at two of the top left-handed hurlers still available: Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel. Part of the reasoning, it seems, is to take advantage of the strong defenders installed on the left side of the San Diego infield.

The Friars have also been involved to some extent on trade candidate David Price. The outfit hasn’t been connected to Hyun-Jin Ryu, the other major remaining southpaw starting pitcher, but perhaps he can’t be ruled out.

There are surely barriers here, beginning with the widespread interest these pitchers — Bumgarner, especially — have garnered. The rotation market has been buzzing with activity all winter long and several teams are still in obvious need of new arms.

The Padres entered the winter with questions about how much more they could spend, given the team’s already hefty commitments to Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, and Wil Myers. The club already made a big outlay for Drew Pomeranz. GM A.J. Preller has reportedly endeavored to deal Myers (and as much of his salary as possible), but hasn’t yet found a match.

It’s arguable that the San Diego organization isn’t in desperate need of adding a rotation piece. Having picked up Zach Davies in a trade, the team has a solid-looking five-man unit on hand that mixes stability and upside. You can never have enough depth, and it’d be awfully nice to add a higher-end veteran on the staff, but it would also be difficult to move any of the team’s top five rotation candidates to the bullpen or Triple-A. In the event of a signing, it’d be fair to wonder whether the club might plan to spin another pitcher off to address another need.

Dan Straily Agrees To Deal With Korea’s Lotte Giants

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Long-time MLB hurler Dan Straily is headed to Korea. He has agreed to a one-year, $1MM deal with the KBO’s Lotte Giants, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

Straily, 31, has appeared in each of the past eight MLB campaigns — in six different uniforms. He owns a 4.56 ERA in 803 1/3 career frames at the game’s highest level.

After a nice showing to begin his career with the Athletics, Straily fell off the map somewhat. But he reemerged in 2016, launching a three-season run in which he threw nearly five hundred innings of 4.03 ERA ball.

Unfortunately, that run came to an abrupt end last year with the Orioles. Straily was brought aboard at the last minute to fortify a barren Baltimore pitching staff, but ended up giving up a nearly unfathomable tally of 22 home runs in 47 2/3 innings. He’ll look to get his career back on track with the KBO’s Giants.

Astros Avoid Arbitration With Lance McCullers Jr.

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The Astros announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Lance McCullers Jr.. He’ll receive $4.1MM, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets.

That’s just what MLBTR and Matt Swartz projected McCullers to earn. But it’d be disingenuous to claim credit for this one. The talented hurler missed the entirety of the 2019 season, so he was clearly in line for a repeat salary.

McCullers, 26, will be looking to return from Tommy John surgery in his penultimate season of team control. When last we saw him, in 2018, he turned in 128 1/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball with 10.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. He carries a 3.67 ERA in his career. If McCullers can return to that sort of productivity and stay on the mound, it would go a long way towards helping the Houston rotation make up for the loss of Gerrit Cole.

Braves Re-Sign Charlie Culberson

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The Braves announced that they have re-signed utilityman Charlie Culberson. It’s a minor league deal with a non-roster invitation for Spring Training. Culberson can earn at a $1MM rate in the majors, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

Culberson, 30, played a big role for the Atlanta organization in its two consecutive NL East title years, though his 2019 season was limited by injury. He was non-tendered at the outset of the offseason. Culberson had projected to earn a $1.8MM salary.

The Braves enjoyed big output from Culberson in 2018, when he emerged as a fan favorite even as statistics-based skepticism abounded. In 2019, Culberson actually managed to repeat his hefty batting average on balls in play and maintain much of the power growth he showed in the prior campaign. But his plate discipline issues caught up to him, as his 30.6% strikeout and 4.2% walk rates resulted in a .294 OBP through 144 plate appearances.

Culberson will face an uphill path to making the big club out of camp, but he’s a trusted hand for the organization and represents desirable depth. The arrangement works for the local product as well; as David O’Brien of The Athletic points out, Culberson lives in the Atlanta area and no doubt likes the idea of playing his home games in Gwinnett in the event he isn’t doing so in Cobb County.

Cubs To Re-Sign Brandon Morrow

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The Cubs have struck a deal to bring back veteran reliever Brandon Morrow, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). It’s a minor-league pact.

If Morrow can finally recover from longstanding arm issues, he’ll still need to earn his way onto the MLB roster. Should that come to pass, he’ll be paid at a $1MM rate with $1.25MM in potential incentive pay.

The sides have been working out a deal ever since the club paid him a $3MM buyout rather than exercising a $12MM option for the 2020 campaign. Morrow gave the Cubs 30 2/3 lights-out innings in 2018 before cascading injuries doomed the remainder of the two-year deal he signed to join the team in the prior offseason.

Now, there’s a chance at some redemption for both player and team. Both sides worked hard to get Morrow back to the mound to no avail. But the Cubs obviously still see some hope for the 35-year-old hurler.

Yu Darvish Reportedly Has “No Intention” Of Waiving No-Trade Protection

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While the Cubs are getting some phone calls on veteran righty Yu Darvish, the team ultimately can’t move him on its own accord. That’s because his contract includes full no-trade rights for the time being. (That’ll turn to a dozen-team no-trade list at some point in 2020.)

In theory, the Cubs can sort out a swap and then leave it to the prospective acquiring team to convince Darvish to waive his protection. But that may be an uphill battle — if it’s possible at all. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), Darvish “has no intention” of agreeing to a swap.

It seems that Darvish is quite fond of playing in Chicago, even if the team is at least listening to scenarios that might involve moving his contract. He certainly seems to have settled in at Wrigley after a calamitous, injury filled 2018 season. In the just-completed campaign, Darvish worked to a 3.98 ERA with 11.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 178 2/3 innings. He continues to be prone to the long ball but also managed to carry a personal-high 13.4% swinging-strike rate.

Darvish already bypassed a chance to opt out of the remaining four seasons and $81MM left on his contract. That seemed like a rather obvious decision at the time, but it’s now fair to wonder just how well the 33-year-old might have done on a market that is doling out huge contracts to top starters. At minimum, the Cubs would presumably be able to offload a major chunk of what it owes Darvish — if, that is, he’s even amenable to considering the possibility of wearing a new uniform.

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