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Extension Candidate: Teoscar Hernandez

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To some extent, Teoscar Hernandez has been a bit of an overlooked figure on the Blue Jays roster.  He wasn’t part of the homegrown core of young talent, he isn’t exactly young himself since he turns 29 in October, and he wasn’t one of the major free agent signings that have played such key roles for the Jays in 2021 and (the team hopes) into the future.  Hernandez did get a turn in the spotlight when he was voted into the American League’s starting All-Star lineup this past July, marking some overdue recognition of a player who has quietly been one of baseball’s best hitters over the last 26 months.

If “26 months” seems like something of an arbitrary timeline, it is because Hernandez has a pretty clear line of demarcation at almost the exact midpoint of his career.  Prior to July 16, 2019, it wasn’t like Hernandez was a bad player, as he even hit 22 home runs for Toronto during the 2018 season.  However, power was much pretty much all Hernandez had to offer over the first 971 plate appearances of his MLB career, as he swatted 42 home runs but batted only .231/.292/.447.  This led to a 96 wRC+, and between that below-average offensive production and a very subpar outfield glove, there was some question about whether or not Hernandez could develop into anything more than a part-time player.

Needless to say, those questions have been answered.  Hernandez hit a home run against the Red Sox in that July 16 game and then hit two more homers the next day, essentially heralding his arrival as a first-rate hitter.  Over Hernandez’s last 916 plate appearances, he has hit 59 home runs and slashed .285/.343/.548 slash line.  His 136 wRC+ since July 16, 2019 has been topped by only 12 qualified hitters in all of baseball, and he is also tied for eighth in slugging percentage in that timeframe.

Hernandez made some mechanical changes to his swing during a minor league demotion earlier in 2019, though there isn’t really a simple “lightbulb switched on” reason why Hernandez was suddenly much more productive.  Looking at his numbers pre- and post-July 16, 2019, Hernandez’s walk rates have actually declined in the last 26 months, while his strikeout rates have gone from being almost league-worst to merely bad.

Hernandez always made plenty of hard contract, and with a .350 BABIP during the productive half of his career (and a .296 BABIP beforehand), there is some level of good fortune involved in Hernandez’s rise.  That said, Hernandez has helped himself by making more contact in general and hitting more line drives, with his above-average baserunning allowing him to translate that hard contact into hits.

Turning to the defensive side, Hernandez has worked to become a respectable outfielder after struggling so badly in the field earlier in his career.  Over 926 innings (707 in right field, 212 in left) this season, Hernandez has a +0.1 UZR/150 and +1 Outs Above Average, while the Defensive Runs Saved metric still gives him a -2 score.  While a Gold Glove probably isn’t in Hernandez’s future, he has at least proven that he isn’t a DH-only player — which could prove important to his future earning potential.

Hernandez was arbitration-eligible for the first time this season, and avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.325MM salary.  He’ll get a sizable raise coming this winter, and then another in the 2022-23 offseason before becoming eligible for free agency following the 2023 campaign.  Should Hernandez keep up his level of offense next year, he should earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $17MM in 2022-23 before hitting the open market prior to his age-31 season.

That is, unless the Blue Jays keep him off the open market by working out a contract extension.  With two-plus years remaining of control over Hernandez, the Jays aren’t in any immediate rush to make a decision one way or the other, and naturally quite a few other matters will need to be addressed in the interim.  Re-signing impending free agents Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray seem to be a priority for the club, and one would imagine the Jays will make a hard push to extend Jose Berrios (a free agent after 2022) given how they surrendered such a notable prospect package to acquire him from the Twins at the trade deadline.  Elsewhere on the extension front, Toronto might also look to land some long-term cost certainty over cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, even though both are already controlled through the 2025 season.

In short, Hernandez might find himself somewhat overlooked again, if the Jays are content to go year-by-year.  However, there is some logic in the team exploring a longer deal with the slugger right now.  While the Blue Jays are one of the league’s best offensive teams, the lineup will take a big hit if Semien leaves, and the future depth has been a bit depleted — Cavan Biggio has struggled through an injury-plagued year, Rowdy Tellez was traded to the Brewers, and top prospect Austin Martin was dealt in the Berrios swap.

Speaking of the prospect ranks, the Toronto farm system has plenty of intriguing infielders and pitchers, but the Jays are short on young outfielders ready to make an impact at the big league level.  While that could change in the two years before Hernandez hits free agency, the lack of young outfield depth was one reason the Jays felt compelled to sign George Springer this past offseason.  There isn’t anyone immediately coming to push for Hernandez’s role, and in any case, Hernandez would seem to have a lot more job security than the much more inconsistent Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.  Grichuk is signed through 2023 but has provided below-average offense in Toronto, while Gurriel is controlled through 2024 but has been part of trade rumors in the past.

Only Hernandez himself (and maybe his agents at Republik Sports) would know the answer to this subject, but the outfielder also might be eager to lock in the first big payday of his professional career.  Hernandez made more in 2021 than he did in the rest of his career combined, as he received only a $20K bonus when first signing with the Astros back in 2011.  While $7MM+ in arb earnings is lined up for 2022, Hernandez might not want to run the risk of injury or a downturn in performance next season, so he could be open to a deal of fewer additional years, but maybe a higher average annual value in 2024 or 2025.

Grichuk’s four-year/$47MM deal in April 2019 is the only major multi-year extension of the Ross Atkins era, so there isn’t much of a hint about how this front office might approach a Hernandez extension, or if such a deal is even truly on their radar.  The trade that brought Hernandez to Toronto is already one of the canniest moves of Atkins’ tenure as GM, and that trade will only look better if a deal can be worked out so Hernandez can continue to be a big part of the Blue Jays lineup for years to come.

Minor MLB Transactions: 9/7/21

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The latest minor league moves from around the baseball world…

  • The Twins outrighted Derek Law to Triple-A, after the right-hander cleared waivers.  Law was designated for assignment earlier this week, and this is the second time he has been outrighted — Law had the option of choosing free agency after this second outright, though he opted to remain in the Minnesota organization.  Law has a 4.20 ERA over 15 innings this season, spending much of the year at Triple-A St. Paul and also spending over a month on the injured list due to a right shoulder impingement.  Best known for his three seasons in the Giants bullpen from 2016-18, Law is in his first season with the Twins after signing a minor league deal last winter.

COVID Notes: 9/7/21

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The latest on coronavirus-related situations around baseball…

  • The Tigers placed right-hander Joe Jimenez on the COVID-related injury list yesterday due to a positive test.  First base coach George Lombard also tested positive, while pitching coach Chris Fetter, quality control coach Josh Paul and bullpen catcher Jeremy Carroll are away from the team due to contact tracing procedures.  Jimenez and Lombard were fully vaccinated but are both experiencing symptoms, manager A.J. Hinch told The Detroit News’ Chris McCosky and other reporters.  Jimenez has struggled to a 6.15 ERA over 41 innings out of the Tigers bullpen this season, largely due to control problems.  After posting an 8.3% walk rate over his first four MLB seasons, Jimenez’s total has ballooned to 16.7% this season.

Injury Notes: Rodon, Blue Jays, Slater, Gsellman, Cardinals

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The White Sox are skipping Carlos Rodon’s next turn in the rotation due to shoulder soreness, and manager Tony La Russa told reporters (including NBC Chicago’s Maddie Lee) that the team is hopeful Rodon can pitch during the upcoming September 10-12 series with the Red Sox.  That said, “when he doesn’t feel right, it’s impossible to push it,” La Russa said, noting that in the wake of Rodon’s recent injured-list stint due to shoulder fatigue, “that’s what’s concerning, that all this should add up to where right now he would be in peak form.”

Rodon missed a little over two weeks on the IL and has pitched well in two starts since returning, posting a 2.70 ERA over 10 innings.  However, the Sox were easing Rodon back into action, limiting him to 144 total pitches over the two outings.  La Russa said Jimmy Lambert would likely be called up to take Rodon’s spot in what has become an increasingly injury-riddled pitching staff — Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn are also on the 10-day injured list.

The latest on other injury situations around baseball…

  • Cavan Biggio and Ross Stripling are slated to begin rehab assignments at the Blue Jays’ Triple-A affiliate, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes (Twitter link).  Stripling was placed on the 10-day IL on August 11 with a left oblique strain and could be closer than Biggio to a return, as Stripling might be back when the Jays begin a series against the Orioles on Friday.  Biggio was already on a rehab assignment for a back problem when he suffered an elbow injury two weeks ago, thus setting back his progress.
  • The Giants placed outfielder Austin Slater on the seven-day concussion IL prior to tonight’s game.  Left-hander Sammy Long was also sent down to Triple-A, while righty Camilo Doval and outfielder Steven Duggar were recalled in corresponding moves.  Slater suffered his concussion while crashing into the outfield wall in Saturday’s game in an attempt to catch a Trea Turner home run.  Now in his fifth season with San Francisco, Slater is hitting .227/.313/.395 with 10 home runs over 288 plate appearances while seeing time at all three outfield positions.
  • Robert Gsellman began a rehab assignment at the Mets’ low-A affiliate today, Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets.  Gsellman has been sidelined since June 21 due to a torn lat muscle, and though he’ll need multiple rehab outings due to the long layoff, he is on pace to return to the Mets bullpen before the season is out.
  • Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told The Athletic’s Katie Woo and other reporters that Jack Flaherty will take the “huge step” of beginning to play catch within the next day or two.  Flaherty’s season seemed to be in jeopardy when he was placed on the IL on August 25 due to a shoulder strain, though there is some optimism that the right-hander may be able to return as either a reliever or as a piggyback starter.  In other Cardinals pitching news, Shildt said that Dakota Hudson will throw at least three more rehab starts as the righty continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery.  The timing will be somewhat tight, but there is some hope that Hudson can return to a big league mound this season, which would mark a tremendous recovery considering that Hudson underwent his surgery in late September 2020.

Blue Jays Hopeful Of Retaining Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray

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Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray have been two of baseball’s best players this season, let alone big reasons why the Blue Jays are still in the hunt for an AL wild card berth.  Both are scheduled to hit free agency this winter, and it isn’t any surprise that the Jays have interest in keeping both players in the fold.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Jays have already tried to sign Semien to a contract extension, while the club intends to discuss a long-term deal with Ray after the season.

The wording would seem to imply that the Jays have yet to broach an extension with Ray, which might not necessarily mean that the team is prioritizing Semien.  Ray (like many players) might simply prefer to not talk contract during the season, in order to focus solely on baseball.  Also of note, Semien is represented by the Wasserman Agency, which has traditionally been more open to in-season negotiating — in the last month alone, Wasserman clients Travis d’Arnaud and Brandon Crawford each inked new deals to remain with their current teams.

Barring a truly massive offer from the Blue Jays, it was probably unlikely that Semien would’ve accepted an extension this close to free agency, as the veteran infielder looks set to land the pricey multi-year deal that eluded him on the open market last year.  Semien didn’t hit well over the first month of the shortened 2020 season, leaving him with only a .223/.305/.374 slash line in 236 total PA even after he hit much better in late September and during the Athletics’ playoff run.  Rather than take a multi-year contract at a lowered cost, Semien opted for a one-year, $18MM deal with Toronto, betting on himself to deliver bigger numbers over a full season.

That bet has paid off handsomely, as Semien hit his 35th homer of the season today, and is now batting .266/.334/.530 over 601 plate appearances.  With the abbreviated 2020 season folded between Semien’s big years in 2019 and 2021, his three-season cumulative total of a .268/.346/.501 slash line over 1579 PA works out to a 128 wRC+, solidly placing him amongst the best middle infielders in baseball.  Semien had been a starting shortstop in Oakland before becoming the Jays’ second baseman this season, to accommodate Bo Bichette at short.

Ray also had something to prove in the wake of a rough 2020 season with the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays, and he moved quickly to rejoin the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8MM pact soon after the opening of the official free agent period.  Ray had always been plagued by inconsistency and high walk totals during his five-plus seasons in Arizona, but after working with the Jays’ coaching staff and overhauling his offseason training regimen, Ray has blossomed as a candidate for the AL Cy Young Award.

Including today’s 6 2/3 shutout innings of work against Oakland, Ray has a 2.60 ERA and 32.3% strikeout rate over 166 frames.  Perhaps most importantly, Ray has only a six percent walk rate — easily his career best, and in the 82nd percentile of all qualified pitchers this season.  Ray has also gained enough innings to qualify as baseball’s all-time leader in K/9, with an 11.2 total over his eight MLB seasons.

In short, both Semien and Ray project to be two of the offseason’s top free agents, and re-signing both could potentially cost the Blue Jays upwards of $200MM.  While it remains to be seen if the Jays will indeed be able to bring even one of the duo back for 2022 and beyond, money alone shouldn’t be a deterrent.  The signings of George Springer and Hyun Jin Ryu are evidence that Toronto is willing to spend big in free agency, and many of the Jays’ young stars are either cost-controlled via arbitration or (in Bichette’s case) are still over a year away from arbitration eligibility.  The Blue Jays also don’t have that much money on the books in future years, creating the possibility that both Semien and Ray could be slotted alongside Springer, Ryu, and possibly major extensions for the likes of Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Teoscar Hernandez.

Minor MLB Transactions: 9/5/21

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Today’s minor league moves…

  • The Dodgers cleared a 40-man roster spot by outrighting right-hander Ryan Meisinger to Triple-A.  Los Angeles claimed Meisinger off waivers from the Cubs on Tuesday and only briefly kept him on the big league roster before assigning him to the minors.  Meisinger has tossed 31 innings over parts of three MLB seasons, including 7 1/3 frames with Chicago this season that saw the righty post a 12.27 ERA.  The results have been much better for Meisinger at Triple-A over his career, as he has a 3.18 ERA and 31.25% strikeout rate over 93 1/3 frames at the top minor league level.

Dodgers Place AJ Pollock On 10-Day Injured List

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4:06PM: The Dodgers officially placed Pollock on the 10-day injured list.  Right-hander Mitch White was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

TODAY, 1:15AM: Pollock has a Grade 2 strain, and will miss “two, three weeks at a bare minimum,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett and other reporters.

SEPTEMBER 4: Dodgers outfielder AJ Pollock left tonight’s game with what the team described as a right hamstring strain.  Pollock hurt himself while trying to steal third base in the top of the first inning, as he was limping off the field following the play.

The fact that Pollock’s injury has already been diagnosed as a strain would seem to imply that he’ll require a trip to the injured list.  The next step will be learning the severity, as anything more than a minor strain could potentially cause Pollock to miss most or even all of the Dodgers’ remaining regular-season games (and into the postseason).  Pollock missed just shy of three weeks with a strain to his left hamstring earlier in the season.

Perhaps a little overshadowed by the many big names on the Dodgers’ roster, Pollock has rather quietly been a key cog in the L.A. lineup.  He entered tonight’s game hitting .295/.351/.504 with 16 homers over 385 plate appearances, with plenty of hard contact backing up his 131 OPS+/wRC+.  Playing mostly left field, Pollock has also been a solid defensive force, with +3 Defensive Runs Saved and +1 Outs Above Average (though the UZR/150 metric has a -2.0 score on his glovework).

Should Pollock indeed be heading back to the IL, Los Angeles can turn to a combination of Zach McKinstry, Billy McKinney, or (down at Triple-A) Matt Beaty to handle left field duty, or utilityman Chris Taylor could simply assume the everyday role.  Taylor has already been seeing more regular work in center field, however, as the struggling Cody Bellinger hasn’t been playing against left-handed pitching.  In short, the Dodgers’ depth will be tested yet again, which isn’t optimal for a team fighting hard with the Giants for first place in the NL West.

Tigers Shut Julio Teheran Down For The Season

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After spending almost the entire season on the injured list, right-hander Julio Teheran has been officially shut down for the remainder of the 2021 campaign.  Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen and other reporters that the decision was made after Teheran “wasn’t himself” during some recent throwing sessions.

Teheran suffered a shoulder strain while warming up for his second start of the season, way back in early April.  That shoulder issue simply never got better, as Teheran was also temporarily shut down from throwing in August when he was throwing at an unusually low velocity during a live batting practice session.  Barring a reunion on another minor league deal this offseason, Teheran’s tenure in Detroit will be limited to just a single start — a quality outing that saw Teheran allow one run over five innings in a 5-2 victory over the Indians back on April 3.

Ironically, Teheran has been best known for his durability over his 11 MLB seasons, averaging 191 innings per year with the Braves from 2013-19.  After struggling through a tough 2020 season with the Angels, Teheran settled for a minor league pact with the Tigers, and he locked in a $3MM guaranteed salary by reaching the big league roster.  The Tigers were hoping to add an innings-eating veteran to their young rotation, though their investment in Teheran simply didn’t pan out.

It seems as though Teheran will again have to showcase himself for scouts this winter in order to attract another minors contract, but the larger concern could be Teheran’s overall health, if he is still not able to effectively throw almost five months after his initial injury.  The exact nature of Teheran’s shoulder strain isn’t known, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if some type of surgical procedure was required to fully correct the problem.

Braves Sign Maikel Franco

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The Braves signed third baseman Maikel Franco last week, according to Baseball America’s Chris Hilburn-Trenkle.  The signing took place prior to September 1, as per The Athletic’s David O’Brien, so Franco would be eligible for inclusion on a postseason roster.

It can be assumed that Franco’s deal is a minor league pact, and if he does reach Atlanta’s active roster, the Braves will only owe him the prorated portion of a minimum salary.  The Orioles are on the hook for the remainder of Franco’s salary (what is left on the infielder’s one-year, $1MM deal) after releasing Franco on August 27.

After a solid season with the Royals in 2020, Franco couldn’t keep the momentum going during his lone season in Baltimore, hitting only .210/.253/.355 with 11 home runs over 403 plate appearances in an O’s uniform.  These struggles prevented Franco from being a trade chip for the rebuilding Orioles at the trade deadline, and so the team opted to cut him loose to open up more playing time for younger players.

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has shown a propensity for adding veterans as roster depth, and Franco’s presence will provide some extra backing for Austin Riley at third base.  Riley (enjoying a big breakout season) has seen almost all of the action at the hot corner this season, with utilityman Ehire Adrianza serving as the primary backup.  Franco also has experience at first base, so he could theoretically also back up Freddie Freeman

Franco was a Riley-esque top prospect himself when coming up in the Phillies farm system, though now in his eighth MLB season, Franco hasn’t been able to consistently deliver on that potential.  As per the wRC+ and OPS+ metrics, Franco has been an above-average hitter only three times (2015, 2018, 2020) in his career, and he has a .246/.297/.423 slash line over 3185 total PA in the big leagues.  He does have 121 home runs, as Franco has topped the 20-homer threshold three times.

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