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Mariners Notes: Cozart, Bullpen, First Base, Roster

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The Mariners’ main offseason needs and pending roster decisions are outlined by Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune…

  • The M’s are expected to revisit trade talks with the Reds about Zack Cozart.  The two clubs nearly agreed to a dealing deal that would’ve sent Cozart and a prospect to Seattle in exchange for minor leaguer Luiz Gohara and another prospect, but ran out of time prior to the August 1 deadline, in part because Cincinnati was busy with additional medical paperwork related to the Jay Bruce trade with the Mets.  Cozart is only under contract through the 2017 season, so the door is still open for Ketel Marte to be Seattle’s shortstop of the future.  Mariners officials think Marte “would benefit next season from taking a step back,” pointing to how James Paxton and Mike Zunino blossomed after taking a reduced role.
  • Beyond adding Cozart or another veteran shortstop, Dutton identifies a right-handed hitting first baseman and a hard-throwing lefty reliever as the Mariners’ other big areas of need.  Dan Vogelbach will form the left-handed side of the first base platoon, and Dutton speculates that the M’s could re-sign Dae-ho Lee to again serve as the right-handed first base bat.  For external options, Dutton believes free agent Steve Pearce is a good fit for the M’s — Pearce mashes southpaws and provides depth at not just first base but potentially several spots around the diamond.
  • In regards to the left-handed reliever, Dutton cites the Pirates’ Tony Watson as what the Mariners are looking for in a southpaw who is capable of filling a setup role or just situational work against left-handed hitters.  Acquiring Watson himself may not be in the cards, though Dutton notes that the Pirates could look to save some money with Watson getting more expensive through arbitration.  Internally, the M’s could use Ariel Miranda for this left-handed bullpen role, though the club prefers him as a starter for now.
  • In a separate piece that breaks down every player on Seattle’s 40-man roster, Dutton writes that the Mariners are likely to non-tender Charlie Furbush and let Drew Storen walk in free agency.  Tom Wilhelmsen, who is eligible for arbitration, also “could easily get squeezed out” given that he has fallen behind several other arms in the bullpen pecking order.
  • The Mariners probably won’t pick up Chris Iannetta’s $4.25MM club option, leaving them looking for a backup catcher.  Among internal options, Jesus Sucre is more affordable and has a good relationship with Felix Hernandez.
  • “A new deal seems reasonably likely” for longtime outfielder Franklin Gutierrez, who is headed for free agency.  The M’s also have an interest in re-signing Nori Aoki, even though his presence creates a bit of a logjam with Gutierrez possibly returning and Seth Smith’s club option almost certainly being exercised.  Dutton wonders if this could lead to Smith becoming a trade chip if Aoki is indeed brought back.

Dodgers Notes: Greinke, Payroll, Free Agents

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Jon Heyman’s latest column for FanRag Sports takes a look at the Dodgers’ summer trade talks and how the club is positioning itself for the future…

  • The Dodgers were known to have had brief talks with the Diamondbacks about a possible Zack Greinke trade this summer, and Heyman reports that the Dodgers offered to cover roughly $25MM of the $34.4MM average annual value owed to Greinke through the 2021 season.  D’Backs ownership didn’t want to retain any of Greinke’s contract and rejected the offer, saying the Dodgers “had plenty of money” to afford all of the right-hander’s massive future salary commitments.
  • While Los Angeles obviously hasn’t been shy on spending in recent years, Heyman notes that the club “might have stricter limits on term that you’d think.”  For instance, the Dodgers were only willing to offer Greinke five years (for $155MM) in free agency last winter, and some in the organization even felt that was a “stretch.”  The Dodgers even floated a two-year offer to Greinke with a very high AAV of close to $40MM per season.
  • With the Dodgers’ concerns about term length in mind, there are some mixed signals about how far the team is willing to go to re-sign its top free agents this winter, such as Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Rich Hill and Josh Reddick.  While L.A. will “at least try” to retain all of them, at least one or two of the players could sign elsewhere.  One rival official believes the Dodgers might let all of their own free agents walk, though later reasoned that Jansen is perhaps too important to the Dodgers’ bullpen to let go.
  • Speaking of Dodgers’ spending, some in the front office believe there’s a chance the team could manage to get below the $189MM luxury tax threshold in the near future.  The Dodgers have so many impressive prospects on the horizon that an influx of cheap, controllable young talent would allow the club to eschew the higher-priced names that ballooned their payroll to over $300MM in recent years.  Heyman notes, however, that the Dodgers have already trimmed spending (by their standards) from that record high, with a 2016 Opening Day payroll of just under $250MM.  It’s also possible that the luxury tax limit will be raised from $189MM in the new collective bargaining agreement, so Los Angeles and other big-market teams would have a bit more spending flexibility.  Needless to say, getting under the luxury tax limit just once would provide massive financial savings for the Dodgers.

D’Backs Expected To Soon Decide On La Russa, Stewart

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Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick is expected to meet with chief baseball officer Tony La Russa on Monday, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports.  A decision about the future of La Russa and GM Dave Stewart could potentially be made at the meeting itself, though if not, a final call should be coming relatively soon.  Team president Derrick Hall confirmed to Heyman that a Kendrick/La Russa meeting was probably happening Monday, though he didn’t note if he or Stewart would also attend.

For Stewart’s part, the general manager told reporters (including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) on Sunday morning that he hadn’t been told by club management about when to expect a decision on his future.  In a text to Piecoro, Hall said that there would be a sitdown meeting with La Russa and Stewart before any final decision was made, which could represent Monday’s get-together.

The club parted ways with senior VP De Jon Watson a couple of weeks ago, and as Piecoro writes, “many around the game” feel the D’Backs will make changes simply due to the fact that this evaluation of their top baseball execs has gone on for over a month.  Stewart’s contract included a 2017 option that was supposed to be exercised by the end of August, though D’Backs upper management held off until the end of the season.

In a radio interview on Sunday, Hall acknowledged that something had to give.  “We can’t drag this on….We’ve got to improve this ballclub, and we have to have a plan going into the offseason,” Hall said.  “So we’ll make a decision quickly.  It’s awkward for these guys to sit around and wait.  It’s not good for anyone.”

Despite the high-profile offseason additions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller, the Diamondbacks finished the season with a 69-93 record, the seventh-worst mark in baseball.  Subpar years from both pitchers, especially Miller, certainly played a part, as did a lack of help from the rotation as a whole, a very shaky bullpen and A.J. Pollock spending almost all of the season on the DL.  Combined with pre-existing criticisms about how La Russa and Stewart have handled the team’s prospects and international signings, there is indeed a case for the D’Backs to make a change.  On the flip side, as Stewart notes to Piecoro, the management team has only been in place for two years, so they could deserve more time to see things through.

West Notes: Scully, Hudson, Rockies, Bridich, Angels, M’s

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Vin Scully signed off for the final time today, ending his incredible career with one final Dodgers vs. Giants matchup.  All of us at MLB Trade Rumors join the rest of the baseball world in tipping our caps to Mr. Scully, the greatest to ever call a baseball game.  We wish him all the best in a very well-deserved retirement.  Here’s some news from around both the NL and AL West…

  • The Diamondbacks will talk to free agent reliever Daniel Hudson this winter about a possible return, GM Dave Stewart told reporters, including Jack Magruder of FanRag Sports (Twitter link).  Stewart discussed the possibility of extending Hudson last June, though also came very close to dealing the right-hander at the trade deadline.  Hudson finished the year with a 5.31 ERA over 59 1/3 bullpen innings, though his solid peripherals (3.89 FIP, 4.20 xFIP, 3.92 SIERA) indicate Hudson’s ERA was inflated by his .333 BABIP and very low 61.7% strand rate.
  • The Rockies were within reach of a wild card spot at the trade deadline but stood pat, ultimately faltering over the last two months of the season and finishing at 75-87.  MLB.com’s Thomas Harding revisits the decision from GM Jeff Bridich to not make any moves, since while there were some good reasons (such as Trevor Story’s season-ending injury) for Bridich to resist buying for a playoff run, it could indicate an over-reliance on Colorado’s internal talent.
  • There don’t appear to be any changes forthcoming to the Angels coaching staff, manager Mike Scioscia told reporters (including MLB.com’s Austin Laymance).
  • The Mariners will consider all of their free agents and club option players, GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters, though MLB.com’s Greg Johns believes “only a couple” will return to Seattle in 2017.  Outfielder Seth Smith is likely to have his $7MM club option exercised, while the M’s could pass on Chris Iannetta’s $4.25MM club option since it’s a fairly high price for a backup catcher.  Of the free agents, Adam Lind will likely be let go while outfielders Nori Aoki and Franklin Gutierrez could be better fits to be re-signed.

Marlins Notes: Starting Pitching, Dunn, Bonds

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Here’s the latest from south Florida…

  • “After the Marlins come to grips with the shock and grief of losing Jose Fernandez the man, they will confront the reality of something far less important but daunting: replacing Fernandez the pitcher,” the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson writes.  There is no easy way to fill the spot of perhaps the best pitcher in the sport, particularly since the Marlins were already going to be looking for rotation upgrades anyway.  This winter’s free agent pitching market is extremely thin, and the Marlins have generally been unwilling to pay big prices on the open market.  (It probably doesn’t help that Wei-Yin Chen, last year’s big signing, struggled in his first year in Miami.)  Jackson figures the “best case scenario” for the Marlins would be to sign one of Jeremy Hellickson, Rich Hill or Ivan Nova, and then make a trade for another starter.  He suggests Adeiny Hechavarria or Derek Dietrich as possible trade chips, and the Fish could even revisit last winter’s attempt to deal Marcell Ozuna for a higher-tier arm.
  • The Marlins have “expressed preliminary interest” in re-signing Mike Dunn, the left-hander tells Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.  Dunn told the club that he “would be more than willing to come back” but is excited to be testing the free agent market for the first time in his career.  Dunn and his family are “going to go where the opportunity is.  Where that is, we don’t know.  I haven’t ruled anybody out.”  The southpaw bounced back from a somewhat disappointing 2015 season to post solid numbers this year — a 3.40 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 3.45 K/BB rate over 42 1/3 innings.  Dunn posted the lowest strikeout, grounder and walk rates of his eight-year career and his 93.6 mph average fastball velocity was his lowest since 2009.
  • Barry Bonds’ return as the club’s hitting coach in 2017 “is uncertain,” MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes.  This was the all-time home run leader’s first year on a coaching staff, and under Bonds’ tutelage, Marlins such as Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto had notable jumps in production.  Miami was a below-average offensive club overall, however, most notably in the power department (a likely product of their pitcher-friendly ballpark and an off year from Giancarlo Stanton).  Frisaro notes that some changes are expected to Don Mattingly’s coaching staff.
  • For more Miami baseball news, check out another batch of Marlins Notes from earlier today on MLBTR.

White Sox Notes: Ventura, Williams, Reinsdorf

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Here’s the latest from the south side of Chicago…

  • Robin Ventura was rumored to be done as the White Sox manager, and he confirmed it with reporters (including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin) after today’s game.  “I just feel it’s the right time. It’s more of a personal decision than anything,” Ventura said.  “I love being here.  The organization means a lot to me. You can go as hard as you can and really the only thing you know is how you conduct your business and how you treat people. I’m good with that. Talking to [general manager] Rick [Hahn] through September, you just realize right now is the right time to do it and you need somebody else.”
  • White Sox executive VP of baseball operations Kenny Williams is not stepping down from his position, WSCR 670’s Bruce Levine reports (Twitter link).  Williams was promoted to his current role in October 2012 after a twelve-year stint as the White Sox general manager.
  • The somewhat awkward handling of Ventura’s final days as manager is a sign that the White Sox need to settle on a clear chain of command within the organization, ESPN’s Buster Olney opines in his latest column for ESPN.com subscribers.  Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, who Olney calls “the most loyal boss in baseball,” needs to set a clear direction about whether or not the team is rebuilding or in go-for-it mode.  It would also help solve some of the front office miscommunication by firmly establishing whether Williams or GM Rick Hahn is in charge of baseball operations.

Royals Notes: Cain, Gee, Orlando, Cuthbert

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The Royals’ defense of their World Series title ended today as the club finished with an even 81-81 record.  Here are some season-ending notes as K.C. looks ahead to a rebound year in 2017…

  • Lorenzo Cain won’t hit for the next two months, but he tells Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star (Twitter link) that he otherwise expects a normal offseason training routine.  Cain reiterated that his bothersome right wrist won’t require surgery.  The outfielder missed almost all of September with the bad wrist, capping off an injury-plagued season that saw Cain play just 103 games.  The health problems undoubtedly contributed to Cain’s .287/.339/.408 slash line over 434 PA, a below-average showing give how well he performed in the previous two seasons.  Cain is a free agent after 2017, so a return to good health and good form will be very lucrative for him.
  • Right-hander Dillon Gee will undergo thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star writes.  The procedure usually carries a recovery time of 4-6 months, so Gee could be ready for the start of Spring Training.  Gee signed a minor league deal with the Royals last winter and posted a 4.68 ERA, 6.4 K/9 and 2.41 K/BB rate over 125 innings, working as both a starter and a reliever.  He has another year of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency following the 2017 campaign.
  • Paulo Orlando has emerged as a bit of a late bloomer in the Royals’ eyes, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes.  The outfielder just delivered his best offensive season at age 30, though manager Ned Yost would like to see Orlando develop some more power.  Some other holes exist in Orlando’s game (a 2.7% walk rate, and perhaps an overall inflated slash line due to a .382 BABIP) but he has put himself into the conversation for at least a part-time outfield role in 2017.
  • Cheslor Cuthbert is on his way to the Instructional League to get some second base work, GM Dayton Moore told FSKC’s Joel Goldberg (Twitter link) during the pregame show of today’s Royals broadcast.  Though Cuthbert had a solid rookie season, he could be fighting for a roster spot next year since the Royals will have Mike Moustakas returning at third base, and Raul Mondesi, Christian Colon and Whit Merrifield all in the mix at second.  Learning to play multiple positions, of course, is an obvious boost to Cuthbert’s chances.  He has appeared in a handful of games at second in the majors and minors and also played some first base, beyond his primary third base position.

Current 2017 MLB Draft Order

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With the 2016 regular season now in the books, the preliminary order has been set for the 2017 amateur draft.  The order is set by a reversal of the standings, with the league-worst Twins getting the first overall pick.  When two or more teams have the same record, the better pick goes to the club who had the worse record in the previous season.  For instance, the Reds won 68 games in 2015, the Padres 74 games and the Rays 80 games, which established the order of the second, third and fourth overall selections.  Jonathan Mayo of MLBPipeline.com has the breakdown of where all 30 teams will pick in the first round of next June’s draft…

1. Twins (59-103)
2. Reds (68-94)
3. Padres (68-94)
4. Rays (68-94)
5. Braves (68-93)
6. Athletics (69-93)
7. Diamondbacks (69-93)
8. Phillies (71-91)
9. Brewers (73-89)
10. Angels (74-88)
11. Rockies (75-87)
12. White Sox (78-84)
13. Pirates (78-83)
14. Marlins (79-82)
15. Royals (81-81)
16. Astros (84-78)
17. Yankees (84-78)
18. Mariners (86-76)
19. Cardinals (86-76)
20. Tigers (86-75)
21. Giants (87-75)
22. Mets (87-75)
23. Orioles (89-73)
24. Blue Jays (89-73)
25. Dodgers (91-71)
26. Red Sox (93-69)
27. Indians (94-67)
28. Nationals (95-67)
29. Rangers (95-67)
30. Cubs (103-58)

Given the ongoing negotiations between the league and the players’ union about a new collective bargaining agreement, there is a chance the draft’s rules could be altered under a new CBA, whether it relates to draft spending pools, tying free agent compensation to the draft, etc.  Since it’s already October, however, it’s probably more likely that the same general framework will be in place for this winter’s transactions market, and any significant changes will apply to the 2017-18 offseason and the subsequent 2018 draft.

Under the current rules regarding free agent compensation, if a free agent rejects his team’s one-year/$16.7MM qualifying offer, that team is entitled to a compensatory pick between the first and second rounds if that player signs elsewhere.  The signing team would surrender its first-rounder, or highest remaining pick if it signs multiple QO free agents.

The top ten picks in the draft (held by the Twins, Reds, Padres, Rays, Braves, A’s, D’Backs, Phillies, Brewers and Angels) are protected, so if any of those teams signed a qualifying offer free agent, they would keep that pick and instead surrender their next-highest selection.  Owning a protected pick is a silver lining amidst disappointing seasons for these 10 clubs, as they can now still pursue a top free agent while retaining that valuable position at or near the top of the draft.  Teams who just missed the protected pick bottom-10 now face a tough decision; the White Sox, for instance, have made a few big free agent signings under GM Rick Hahn, but they’ll have to weigh signing a QO free agent against the value of that No. 12 overall selection.

Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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The entire season revolves around this one question.  Now that the 2016 postseason field is set, all that remains is seeing which of the 10 remaining clubs will be hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy.

Toronto hosts Baltimore in the AL Wild Card game on Tuesday, with the winner going on to face Texas.  Cleveland holds home field advantage over Boston in the other ALDS matchup.  Over in the NL, New York hosts San Francisco in the Wild Card game on Wednesday, and a date with league-leading Chicago awaits the victor.  Washington will host Los Angeles in Game 1 of their NLDS series on Friday.

Will the Cubs break their curse and capture their first World Series since 1908?  Or, perhaps the second-longest Series drought in baseball could instead end if the Indians continue Cleveland’s sudden run of sports success.  Could the Rangers (56 years in existence) or Nationals (48 years) finally win the first championship in the history of their franchises?  Can the Mets continue to thrive amidst a swath of injuries and make it back to the Fall Classic for the second straight year?  Do the Blue Jays have more bat-flipping postseason heroics in store for 2016?  No AL team has won more games over the last five years than the Orioles, but can they finally get that elusive postseason breakthrough?  Could the Dodgers or Red Sox celebrate their respective franchise icons (Vin Scully and David Ortiz) by sending them into retirement on the high note of another championship?  Or, are all these questions moot since it’s an #EvenYear and thus the Giants are due for another title?

MLBTR readers, who do you think will win it all?  (link for app users)

Who Will Win The World Series?
Cubs 29.49% (6,050 votes)
Red Sox 15.62% (3,203 votes)
Giants 10.92% (2,240 votes)
Rangers 9.89% (2,028 votes)
Blue Jays 7.47% (1,533 votes)
Dodgers 7.37% (1,512 votes)
Indians 6.23% (1,277 votes)
Mets 5.83% (1,195 votes)
Orioles 3.68% (755 votes)
Nationals 3.51% (719 votes)
Total Votes: 20,512

Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds

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After the season concludes, we’ll be looking at every team in the league in depth with MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series.  For the time being, though, we’re taking preliminary big-picture looks at what some of the non-contending clubs will need to focus on as part of our Three Needs series.

Let’s jump to the National League Central to look at what the rebuilding Reds will be looking to accomplish this winter, though the usual “three needs” designation may not quite fit in this case.  While the Reds have quite a few needs, they theoretically already have the young talent on hand to address at least some of these problems — now it’s just a matter of which youngsters emerge, fall back or are still a year or two away.

[View Reds Depth Chart]

1. Find regular roles for Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera.  These two are slated to be Cincinnati’s shortstop and second baseman of the future, and the future could begin now if incumbents Zack Cozart or Brandon Phillips are dealt.  Peraza has also seen time in left and center, so there’s some value in using him around the diamond as a Ben Zobrist-esque super-utility player in order to get him in the lineup virtually every day, if a singular position can’t be opened up.

Cozart received a lot of interest at the trade deadline in the wake of his above-average hitting numbers in the first half (.267/.316/.482 in 335 PA), though the Reds couldn’t find a trade partner.  He then went ice-cold in August and September, so while Cozart may not quite have turned a corner at the plate, he still provides outstanding glovework at a key defensive position.  Cozart will get a pretty modest bump from his $2.925MM salary in 2016 via his third and final year of arbitration eligibility, so he’ll surely get some renewed trade interest this winter from teams looking to upgrade themselves at least defensively at shortstop.  Cozart certainly looks like the Reds’ likeliest veteran trade chip, given that their other high-priced vets have major injury issues (Homer Bailey, Devin Mesoraco) or full no-trade clauses (Phillips, Joey Votto).

Phillips already rejected one proposed trade to the Nationals last offseason since the Nats didn’t agree to a contract extension.  It’s now even more unlikely that a trade suitor will talk extension, in the wake of Phillips’ below-average year both offensively and defensively.  In a recent interview, Phillips didn’t sound much more open to waiving his trade protection, so unless (or until) he consents to a deal, the Reds could make the big move of having both Phillips and Herrera compete for the second base job in Spring Training.  This could leave Phillips as a very expensive bench piece, or the Reds could explore moving him to third if Herrera indeed takes over at second.

Of course, Eugenio Suarez has established himself at the hot corner, and it would seem a curious move to displace a 25-year-old for a 35-year-old nearing the end of his tenure with the club.  Keep in mind, however, that the Reds have Nick Senzel (the second overall pick of the 2016 draft) earmarked as their third baseman of the future.  With injuries and NTCs preventing the Reds from shopping most of their veterans, Suarez would be an interesting alternative trade candidate.  He’s coming off a 20-homer season and is still a pre-arbitration player, though with only 2.2 fWAR combined in 2015-16, Cincy probably isn’t looking at Suarez as a member of its next contending team.  Speaking of which, the Reds also need to…

2. Figure out which position players are keepers.  Don’t count on the Reds acquiring anything more than veteran position player depth, as the bulk of their offseason and Spring Training time should be spent deciding on who amongst their interesting crop of young players projects as a long-term piece.

Billy Hamilton took some small but credible steps forward as an offensive player this season.  Hamilton’s speed and outstanding center field glove are worthy of everyday duties anyway, though becoming even an average hitter would make Hamilton into a major threat.  Tucker Barnhart’s pitch-framing and defense is a work in progress, though he can hit well enough to handle the position until the Reds know if Mesoraco is healthy enough to continue on behind the plate.

All-Star Adam Duvall emerged as a big power threat and a surprisingly strong left field defender, though he’ll need to cut down on his strikeouts and improve his on-base percentage.  Scott Schebler posted some solid numbers and looks like he can, at least, serve as the left-handed hitting side of a platoon in right field.  Big-hitting prospect Jesse Winker is knocking on the door for a callup and has been seen time at both corner outfield spots.  Winker is also a left-handed hitter so he’s not ideal as a platoon partner with Schebler, though one would suspect Cincinnati would give Winker the first crack at everyday duties once he gets the call to the bigs.

3. Continue sorting out the pitching, with a focus on the bullpen.  The Reds went into 2016 with about as unsettled a pitching situation as possible, and it resulted in a new Major League record for most homers allowed in a season.  While Anthony DeSclafani, Dan Straily and Brandon Finnegan need to drastically cut down on the long balls, all three have claimed rotation jobs for next season.  Bailey will join them if healthy, though that’s a big “if” given how he’s faced somewhat of a bumpy recovery from Tommy John surgery.  There are plenty of candidates in the mix for the fifth starter’s job, with former top prospect Robert Stephenson tentatively in the lead, though he didn’t impress in his first taste of big league action.  Cody Reed, Keyvius Sampson, John Lamb, Tim Adleman and highly-touted prospect Amir Garrett will also be competing.  A minor trade wouldn’t be out of the question given the number of arms on hand, though given that the rotation is hardly set in stone, the Reds might want to keep as much depth as possible.

Losers of the rotation battle could help out the league-worst bullpen.  There is some hope at the back of the pen, with the combination of Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen standing out as an intriguing closer/setup man pairing.  Beyond those two, there’s really nowhere to go but up given how poorly the Cincy relief corps performed in 2016.  If the Reds target anything in free agency, it could be a veteran reliever or two (on a short-term or minor league contract) just to add some stability.  If these relievers pitch well, the Reds could potentially flip them at the deadline.

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