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Braves Notes: Freeman, Teheran, Markakis, McGuirk

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Here’s the latest from Atlanta…

  • Braves GM John Coppolella tells David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter links) that “we have not had any trade discussions on Freddie Freeman.”  O’Brien also hears that the club hasn’t had any talks about Julio Teheran and that the Braves don’t intend to trade either player.  Coppolella’s statement runs counter to a Ken Rosenthal report from earlier today claiming that Atlanta was shopping Freeman, Teheran and “everyone owed money,” in the words of one source.  While the GM could be employing some gamesmanship, O’Brien believes (Twitter link) Coppolella’s denial could carry some weight, as he previously didn’t deny that Andrelton Simmons was being shopped prior to the shortstop being dealt to the Angels.
  • In another tweet, O’Brien notes that he didn’t ask Coppolella whether or not Nick Markakis’ name had surfaced in trade talks.  O’Brien thinks the Orioles, Markakis’ former team, could be interested in bringing the right fielder back to Baltimore.  It also wouldn’t surprise O’Brien if the Braves traded Cameron Maybin this offseason.
  • As part of a wide-ranging interview with Phil W. Hudson of the Atlanta Business Chronicle (links to part one and part two), Braves chairman and CEO Terry McGuirk said that the club plans to raise payroll in response to the expected revenue increase from their new stadium.  A top-10 payroll should be feasible, McGuirk said.  He “won’t give you a timetable, but you will start seeing major jumps” by January 1, 2017.  (The new stadium is expected to be ready for Opening Day of the 2017 season.)
  • McGuirk and team president John Schuerholz began to see trouble brewing for the club during the winter of 2013 in regards to a lagging farm system, though they resisted making any major changes since the Braves were winning at the time.  The collapse at the end of the 2014 season was “the catharsis” for the franchise to reload the minor league system that McGuirk notes was so instrumental to the Braves’ success in the 1990’s and 2000’s.  I recommend reading all of Hudson’s interview, as it also contains comments from McGuirk about how the payroll is set, infrastructure and development of the new ballpark, corporate sponsorships and much more information about the business side of the Braves’ operations.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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The AL East champions will have to rebuild their pitching staff this winter, though their first priority will be sorting out an unexpected front office shuffle.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

The afterglow of the Blue Jays’ first postseason appearance since 1993 quickly wore off with the stunning news that Alex Anthopoulos wouldn’t be returning as Toronto’s general manager.  It was more or less expected that the Jays’ playoff run would ensure a new contract for Anthopoulos, but since that proposed extension reportedly gave the final decision-making authority to new club president/CEO Mark Shapiro, Anthopoulos said he “didn’t feel like this was the right fit” for him and walked away from the job.

Anthopoulos’ departure reportedly came as a surprise to both Shapiro and Rogers Communications (the club’s ownership group), though the Jays’ interest in a president with a baseball operations background was evident even a year ago during their flirtations with the likes of Dan Duquette and Kenny Williams.  This implied that Anthopoulos was no longer Rogers’ choice to be the top baseball voice in the organization, so expecting him to accept a loss of autonomy in the wake of a division title may have been a bit naive on ownership’s part.  If Anthopoulos’ decision truly caught the club off-guard, then the Jays are somewhat under the gun in beginning a GM search just as offseason business is getting underway.

Naming Tony LaCava as the interim general manager (and extending his contract) does ensure some continuity within the front office, and LaCava himself could be a fit as the permanent GM.  He has been a long-time assistant GM in Toronto, he briefly worked with Shapiro in Cleveland’s front office and he has been considered for GM jobs with other teams (the Pirates, Angels, Dodgers and Orioles) in the past.  Current and former members of the Indians front office like Ross Atkins, Derek Falvey, De Jon Watson, Josh Byrnes and Tyrone Brooks have been mentioned as possible candidates for the GM position, though everything seems speculative at this point.

This organizational drama has added another layer of intrigue into what was already going to be a very busy offseason for the Jays.  The most clear-cut business has already been taken care of, as the Jays exercised their club options on Jose Bautista ($14MM), R.A. Dickey ($12MM) and Edwin Encarnacion ($10MM) for 2016.  A combined $36MM is a more-than-reasonable price for two elite sluggers and a solid 200+ inning starter.

The next step for the Jays will be to explore extending Bautista and Encarnacion, which will be very interesting negotiations.  The two men are entering their respective age-35 and age-33 seasons and Bautista’s defense has been falling off to the point that he could soon be best suited as a mostly-DH type, as Encarnacion is now.  Extending any player into their late 30’s is a dicey proposition, and extending two such players could be especially risky.  The counter argument, of course, is that Bautista and Encarnacion are still two of the game’s best hitters, both posting big numbers in 2015 despite battling some nagging injuries.  While the Jays could wait to see if either declines next season, waiting also carries the risk of letting either slugger hit the open market on the heels of another big performance.  The Bautista and Encarnacion talks will be a big subplot of this Blue Jays offseason, particularly if the team favors one over the other.

With these contract option years now officially on the books, Toronto is committed to $71MM for five players next season.  The Jays will pay a projected $33MM to their nine-player arbitration class, with Josh Donaldson getting the biggest raise (from $4.3MM in 2015 to $12MM in 2016) in the wake of his MVP-caliber season.  Important contributors like Marcus Stroman, Roberto Osuna, Chris Colabello, Kevin Pillar and Aaron Sanchez are still on their pre-arb contracts, which gives the team a bit of financial breathing room as it tries to figure out how much to spend on the pitching staff.

While nine-figure payrolls aren’t new for the Jays, it has yet to be determined just how much they’re willing to spend this winter.  Last year’s Opening Day payroll was just under $126MM and that number went up during the year after their big deadline trading spree.  It’s fair to assume that Shapiro and LaCava will have at least that $126MM figure to work with in the offseason.  While it has been speculated that Rogers hired Shapiro in part because of his experience with modest payrolls in Cleveland, Shapiro wasn’t afraid to make notable signings (the Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn deals) and extensions (i.e. Victor Martinez, Jhonny Peralta) in his time as the Tribe’s GM and president.

It could also be that Shapiro will receive more financial leeway than Anthopoulos.  The Jays were heavily criticized by fans and local media for making virtually no major moves between the Dickey trade in December 2012 and the Donaldson trade in November 2014, and in hindsight, that seeming transactions freeze could’ve been the first sign of ownership disenchantment with Anthopoulos in the wake of the disastrous 2013 season, rather than a sign that Rogers wasn’t willing to spend.  Given how attendance and TV ratings skyrocketed from August through October, Rogers now has clear evidence that a winning team will be a huge boost to revenue.

That doesn’t mean, however, that the club is willing to spend the $200MM+ it will take to sign David Price to a new deal this winter.  Price has been vocal about how much he enjoyed pitching in Toronto, though with teams such as the Dodgers and Cubs likely in the running for Price’s services, it would be a surprise to see the Jays win a bidding war.  Russell Martin’s $82MM contract from last winter was the biggest free agent deal in franchise history while Vernon Wells’ $126MM deal from 2006 is still the largest overall contract the Jays have ever handed out; the team would likely have to spend as much as those two deals combined, if not more, to retain Price.

Besides Price, Marco Estrada and the possibly (but not certainly) retiring Mark Buehrle are also hitting the open market.  Estrada’s strong performance in both the regular season and postseason boosted his price tag, and the Jays could well re-sign him if that price is around three years and $30MM.  If it goes much higher, I suspect the Blue Jays would be willing to let him walk — especially since they would receive a draft pick in return, as Estrada was issued a qualifying offer.  The two sides are in the midst of discussing a multi-year deal right now, though there have been no indications that a deal is close.

As for Buehrle, he’s been leaning towards retirement for a while.  If he did come back, it might be on a one-year farewell tour type of deal with his hometown Cardinals or a return to the White Sox, rather than re-signing with the Jays.

Right now the Jays’ rotation consists of rising star Stroman, Dickey, and Drew Hutchison (whose inconsistent 2015 season makes him only a fifth starter candidate at best).  One of the two open spots could be filled internally by Osuna or Sanchez, and the latter is the likelier pick since he’d be easier to stretch out.  Sanchez was originally intended to be a reliever last spring, then became a starter in the wake of Stroman’s injury. He struggled prior to a lat injury (5.21 FIP, 42-to-37 K/BB ratio in 66 innings) but returned to thrive in a relief role.  It’s possible that a full spring of preparing solely to start will lead to better results for Sanchez, who’s just a year removed from being labeled one of baseball’s top pitching prospects.

Shifting either Sanchez or Osuna to the rotation is a risky move for a contender, however, as both are unproven as MLB starters and using either to start weakens the bullpen.  Osuna’s transition from A-ball starter in 2014 to star Major League closer in 2015 was already unlikely enough that the Jays may not want to further press their luck by pushing Osuna any further.  His 78 combined IP in the regular season and playoffs last season was a career high, so he’d certainly be on an innings limit as a starter. Thus, the Jays would need a replacement for the latter portion of the season.

Everything therefore seems to point to the Jays adding at least one notable front-of-the-rotation arm and quite possibly a mid-tier starter as well.  There’s no shortage of aces in free agency, and the Jays might not mind losing a first-rounder to sign a qualifying offer free agent since they’d be getting back a comparable draft pick back if Estrada leaves, and their current pick (No. 26) is toward the end of the first round as it is.  Aiming for free agency, however, will test how much the team is willing or able to spend.  The Jays have been linked to Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija in the past, though that was under Anthopoulos.  Shapiro and LaCava may have different opinions of how well either starter would fare in Toronto, especially on an expensive long-term deal.

Rather than free agency, the Blue Jays could acquire pitching via the trade market.  Shapiro has denied a report claiming he directly criticized Anthopoulos for moving top prospects at the deadline, though it would still be somewhat surprising to see the Jays continue to deal youngsters since building from within is Shapiro’s stated preference.  Dealing from the Major League roster, however, could address both the pitching staff and a couple of question marks around the diamond.

Left field, for instance, has Ben Revere as the incumbent and set to earn a $6.7MM salary through arbitration.  This could be a bit high for the Jays’ liking since Revere is a somewhat limited offensive player and has mixed reviews over his career (as per advanced metrics) as a left fielder.  The Jays could try to deal Revere as part of a package for a starter and then go with a Michael Saunders/Dalton Pompey platoon in left.  Then again, Saunders could himself be a trade or even a non-tender candidate given his $2.9MM arbitration projection.  Dealing him for value could be difficult since he barely played in 2015 due to knee injuries.  Pompey isn’t likely to be traded given his high prospect pedigree, though counting on him for anything more than a part-time role is a risk given how he looked overmatched at the plate when he began last season as the starting center fielder and was eventually demoted.

First base could be another position of depth.  Encarnacion will mostly be used as a DH, leaving Colabello and Justin Smoak splitting time at first.  Colabello was a hugely successful under-the-radar signing last winter, giving the Jays an .886 OPS in 360 PA.  Colabello is still a year away from arbitration eligibility which could make him a very attractive trade chip, especially if the Jays think he’ll come back to earth next season (given that he did post a stunningly high .411 BABIP).  Smoak, meanwhile, hit .226/.299/.470 with 18 homers in 328 PA while providing solid defense.  The switch-hitter is an ideal backup for whomever is getting the lion’s share of time at first, whether it’s Colabello or a new addition.

This is just my speculation, but Shapiro’s former team in Cleveland is one of the few that has high-quality, controllable arms potentially available this winter.  The Jays actually came close to landing Carlos Carrasco at the trade deadline for a package of Pompey, Jeff Hoffman and Daniel Norris, so it’s possible Shapiro could revisit those talks from the other side of the table to pursue Carrasco or Danny Salazar.  (Though of course, a new offer would have to be made since Hoffman and Norris have since been dealt.)

You can also make the case that the Blue Jays could just stand pat with their everyday regulars given how the team turned into world-beaters on both offense and defense once their final lineup was solidified at the deadline.  Given how injuries really left the Jays short-handed in early 2015, keeping the outfield and first base surplus intact could be a wise move, as a number of veterans in the lineup already come with notable injury histories.  Devon Travis’ return theoretically makes Ryan Goins expendable, though Goins is perhaps too valuable a bench piece to deal — he provides tremendous defense at either middle infield spot, which comes in handy since it’s far from guaranteed that Travis or Troy Tulowitzki stays healthy all year.

For now, Toronto’s bench lines up as Goins, Smoak, at least one of Saunders or Pompey and then Josh Thole (the knuckler-catching specialist for Dickey) as the backup catcher.  Dioner Navarro did a good job in the backup role last year, though he’s expected to depart for a team that can offer him more playing time.

The bullpen was a problem area for much of the year, seemingly rounding into form around the deadline, but injuries in the playoffs exposed the lack of depth.  If Sanchez is moved into the rotation, the Jays will need a new reliever to set up Osuna.  Brett Cecil pitched very well last season and could do the job, though he could be better deployed outside of a set role and used in high-leverage situations (particularly against left-handed hitters) whenever they may arise in the later innings.  Aaron Loup had solid numbers against lefty bats strictly in a LOOGY role, though the Blue Jays will probably look to bolster their bullpen southpaw corps.  Free agent Tony Sipp could be a possibility if Shapiro wanted to bring in a familiar face from his Cleveland days.

LaTroy Hawkins is retiring and Mark Lowe is a free agent, so the Jays will also need some help on the right-handed side of the bullpen ledger.  Darren O’Day, Tyler Clippard and Shawn Kelley are some of the bigger names available in free agency, though it’s worth noting that Shapiro has never pursued notable free agent reliever signings when he ran the Tribe.  Rather than spend on a righty reliever, the Blue Jays could just keep Sanchez in the bullpen for another year (with an eye to him replacing Dickey in the 2017 rotation), sign a low-cost right-hander and funnel all available money towards the rotation.

Toronto has enough clear areas of need on the roster that it’s obvious what will be targeted no matter who takes over as the full-time general manager (Shapiro will ultimately be calling the shots anyway).  The Jays certainly have work to do on the pitching front, but with so much of their league-best offense likely returning, the club has expectations of another postseason run in 2016.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The future is now for the Astros, as they’ll be looking to continue their winning ways and return to the postseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jed Lowrie, IF: $15MM through 2017 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club option for 2018)
  • Luke Gregerson, RP: $12.5MM through 2017
  • Carlos Gomez, OF: $9MM through 2016
  • Jose Altuve, 2B: $8MM through 2017 (plus club options for 2018-19)
  • Scott Feldman, SP: $8MM through 2016
  • Pat Neshek, RP: $7MM through 2016 (includes $500K buyout of $6.5MM club option for 2017)
  • Jon Singleton, 1B: $6.5MM through 2018 (includes $500K buyout of $2.5MM club option for 2019; club also has options for 2020-21)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Jeff Luhnow’s extensive (and sometimes controversial) rebuild of the Astros began to pay dividends a bit earlier than expected, as most pundits figured the young club was still a year or two away when the 2015 season began.  For Houston fans suffering through years of losing baseball, however, the successes of 2015 couldn’t have come soon enough.  The Astros led the AL West for much of the season, and while a September swoon cost them the division, they still beat the Yankees in the AL Wild Card game and took the Royals to the full five games in their ALDS matchup.

The Astros weren’t afraid to spend some money last winter in order to upgrade their bullpen, lineup and rotation, nor did they shy away from dealing notable prospects like Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana in their big midseason deal for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers.  Now that they’ve established themselves as a playoff threat, the next step will be to see how much more owner Jim Crane is willing to boost the payroll and whether or not Luhnow will sacrifice any more of his vast prospect capital in order to enhance the Major League roster.

Just under $43MM is committed to seven players on the 2016 Astros, and another $31MM is projected to go to nine arbitration-eligible players (though it’s no guarantee all will be tendered, as I’ll explore later).  That adds up to $74MM for 16 players, which is already more than the $72.64MM the Astros spent on their last Opening Day roster.  The payroll has gradually risen from a measly $26MM in 2013 to roughly $50.5MM in 2014 to last year’s total, so it seems like a boost into the $95-$100MM range could be coming this winter.  Crane has repeatedly stated that Luhnow will have more funding available as the team’s development warrants, so if the team is contending again, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Astros pass the $100MM threshold if it means securing a player to help them make a deeper postseason run.

With so much young talent both on the Major League roster and developing down on the farm, it stands to reason that the Astros won’t be a one-year wonder.  For starters, Houston’s lineup will be improved simply by getting an entire year of rookie sensation Carlos Correa and healthy full seasons from Gomez and George Springer.  Gomez is entering the last year of his contract, so he’ll be lined up for a major free agent deal next winter if he gets back to his past All-Star form.

Correa, Springer, Gomez and Jose Altuve form the core of Houston’s lineup, though the Astros have several questions to be answered elsewhere around the diamond.  For one, those four are all right-handed hitters, so the Astros have a distinct need to add lineup balance in the form of at least one notable left-handed bat.  Several regulars are arbitration-eligible, and the team could consider not tendering contracts to some familiar names in order to free some money for bigger upgrades.

Third baseman Luis Valbuena, first baseman Chris Carter and DH Evan Gattis are all cut from the same cloth as low-average, low-OBP sluggers who provided pop in the form of a combined 76 homers.  While their overall arbitration price of $14.8MM isn’t exorbitant, three players with the same limited skill set could be seen as a redundancy for a contending team.  Valbuena is the most likely to stay, as he’s currently the most notable left-handed bat on the roster and can be platooned with Jed Lowrie.  Valbuena is also a free agent after 2016, with prospect Colin Moran on track to get at least a share of the job by 2017.

Though Carter and Gattis are hard to replace from a power standpoint, it wouldn’t be too hard for Houston to find players to top their combined 0.3 fWAR in 2015.  The Astros will pursue trades for both before the tendering deadline, and my guess is that if it came down to a non-tender decision, they’d keep the longer-tenured Carter and let Gattis go.  Even if Houston tenders one or both, however, I’d suspect both would still be shopped during the rest of the offseason.  You could even make a case that the ’Stros could non-tender both sluggers in order to really shake things up, but that’s an unlikely move given how Carter boosted his trade value with a late surge in September and through the playoffs.

If Carter, Gattis or both are gone, who takes over at first or DH?  Prospect A.J. Reed dominated high-A and Double-A pitching last season and will compete for a roster spot in Spring Training, though it might be too early to count on him since he’s yet to play a game at the Triple-A level.  You’ll likely see him hit the bigs sometime in 2016, however.  The Astros won’t yet give up on former top prospect Jon Singleton due to his young age (24) and long-term contract, though Singleton has done little in 420 career PA to prove that he’s even worthy of a roster spot on a contending team, let alone regular playing time. Former 33rd-rounder Tyler White is another option after his monster season split between Double-A and Triple-A.

The non-tender question can also be asked about the catcher’s job, though my guess is that the Astros stick with the Jason Castro/Hank Conger tandem.  The team loves Castro’s defense, relationship with the pitching staff and clubhouse leadership role, while Conger also had good pitch-framing numbers and hit .229/.311/.448 with 11 homers over 229 PA.  Houston has been cited as a possible destination for Matt Wieters, who is an upgrade on paper.  Given the question marks about his injury history and the lack of any other distinct better options on the open market, the Astros might feel more comfortable to keep their familiar catching platoon and spend elsewhere.

Left field is the only clear hole in the lineup as Colby Rasmus will hit free agency after nicely rebuilding his value with a solid regular season and a Ruthian postseason.  The Astros have young options to play left field next season, as a Preston Tucker/Jake Marisnick platoon is probably the top alternative if Rasmus or another everyday regular can’t be obtained.  This said, it wouldn’t be a shock if Rasmus re-signed since he enjoyed his time with the club and at least sounds open to returning.  (Not to mention that Rasmus is a left-handed hitter.)

If he still intends to retire within a few seasons, Rasmus has a case for becoming the first player to accept a qualifying offer.  Rasmus could take the one-year, $15.8MM deal to remain in a familiar spot for another season, as while he’d obviously make far more money in a multi-year contract, he might not want to risk being in another uncomfortable clubhouse situation for what could be the final few years of his career.  (Jeff Todd and Steve Adams recently raised this point on the MLBTR Podcast.)  Houston seems comfortable with the idea of Rasmus accepting.  Retaining a short-term established player, after all, fits with the Astros’ long-term outfield plans with prospects Daz Cameron, Kyle Tucker and Derek Fisher all on the horizon, as well as Tucker and Marisnick in the fold right now.  It’s probably still likely that Rasmus rejects the QO, but he at least has a few more layers to his decision than most.

Luhnow faces an interesting juggling act in adding players to help his team win now, yet also still maintaining and relying on the youth movement that the Astros worked so hard to build.  Top-tier free agents like Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes or Alex Gordon would more than fill the club’s need in left field, though that would represent one less spot for Cameron and company in a few years’ time.  (Center field could well be open if Gomez leaves, though Springer is surely ticketed as a long-term piece.)  Of the top names, Gordon may be the best fit for Houston given that he’s a left-handed hitter, and also because the analytically-minded Astros are the sort of team that would particularly appreciate how Gordon can contribute in all facets of the game.

The same “now vs. the future” debate could be had about first base.  With Reed’s big bat looming, do the Astros need a big upgrade like Chris Davis or could they acquire a short-term veteran bat like Justin Morneau to platoon with Carter/Gattis until Reed arrives?  Davis checks a lot of boxes as an ideal signing for the Astros — he’s a Texas native, a left-handed hitter and brings even more power than Carter or Gattis while providing a much better all-around game.  Davis can contribute from day one while Reed may need some time to acclimate to Major League pitching.  That said, signing Davis would block Reed for the first few years of his career, and making Reed a full-time DH so early in his career probably isn’t something the Astros want.

Another concern is Davis’ price tag, which could be in the six-year/$144MM range and thus would easily surpass Carlos Lee’s six-year, $100MM deal from 2006 as the biggest contract in Astros history.  Payroll boost notwithstanding, I don’t see Houston splurging on two nine-figure contracts this offseason, so they’d have to choose whether they want to make a big impact (if any) on the pitching or offense front.

Speaking of pitching, the rotation projects as Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Scott Feldman, Lance McCullers and Fiers, with young arms like Vincent Velasquez, Dan Straily, Michael Feliz and Brett Oberholtzer available as depth (not to mention Mark Appel down in Triple-A).  Keuchel stepped forward as an ace and Cy Young Award contender in 2015, and his contract extension talks will be one of the club’s underlying subplots.  Expect to hear more about this topic in February and March when teams generally turn from offseason additions to extension business.  McHugh has now delivered consecutive seasons of 3+fWAR pitching, Feldman is a reliable veteran innings-eater when healthy and McCullers and Fiers have already showed the ability to dominate MLB hitters in their brief careers.

Plenty of teams would be satisfied with this pitching situation as it stands, though the Astros are thought to be in the market for a front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Keuchel.  Remember, Houston pursued James Shields last winter even before their breakthrough season, and pursued the likes of Cole Hamels and Tyson Ross at the trade deadline.  While the Astros ended up with a controllable arm in Fiers and a bigger name hurler in Scott Kazmir, their next step is to land a pitcher who is both an ace and will be in Houston for several years.

Kazmir himself has stated he’d like to be that ace, though his middling results as an Astro both diminished his market value and perhaps hurt his chances of a return.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Astros check in on any of the top free agent pitchers, with David Price and Johnny Cueto perhaps getting the most focus since Houston already expressed in both starters last summer.  Also, neither pitcher has a qualifying offer draft pick attached to their services, though the Astros might not mind surrendering a first-rounder for the right signing given how many good prospects are already on board.  Price’s $200MM+ price tag may be too much to afford, though I could definitely see Houston getting involved with Cueto in the $115MM-$120MM range.

If a major arm is added to the rotation, Feldman stands out as a possible trade chip.  The right-hander was shut down with a strained throwing shoulder in September, so obviously he’d have to prove he’s back to normal in Spring Training.  Feldman brings a decent track record on a one-year, $8MM deal and could be very attractive to teams looking for a last-minute rotation boost.

This leaves the bullpen, which will be another major target area for the second straight offseason.  The Astros relief corps had the sixth-lowest bullpen ERA in the game last season, though it faded badly down the stretch with a league-worst 5.63 ERA in September and October (and that doesn’t count the infamous meltdown in Game 4 of the ALDS).  Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Will Harris and Josh Fields will return, while Houston has already declined their $3.5MM option on veteran righty Chad Qualls, whose peripherals suggest he pitched much better than his 4.38 ERA would indicate.

Southpaws Tony Sipp, Oliver Perez and Joe Thatcher are all free agents, so the Astros will certainly have to address a dearth of lefty relief.  Signing one of the winter’s top left-handed bullpen arms (Antonio Bastardo or Sipp himself) would add another significant contract to the Houston bullpen that already has over $12MM invested in 2016 salaries for Gregerson and Neshek.

The biggest relief investment could come in the form of a major closer like Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel, both of whom were heavily targeted by Houston at the deadline.  The Reds and Padres are known to be asking for a large return for either closer, yet Houston is one of the few teams with the prospect depth to afford surrendering a notable minor leaguer or two for a reliever.  A star closer would make the Astros’ already solid bullpen even deeper, and with the rotation ideally providing more stable innings, the relievers are more likely to be sharp late in the season.

As noted earlier, Luhnow was aggressively seeking out top talent last winter before the Astros had proven they could put a winner on the field.  With a postseason berth now giving the franchise extra credibility with free agents, Luhnow could be one of the offseason’s busiest general managers given the plethora of options he has to improve the team.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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A new front office has a busy offseason ahead as the Mariners will try to end baseball’s longest postseason drought.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Robinson Cano, 2B: $192MM through 2023
  • Felix Hernandez, SP: $104MM through 2019
  • Kyle Seager, 3B: $92.5MM through 2021 ($15-20MM club option for 2022, with buyout between $0-$3MM based on performance)
  • Nelson Cruz, RF/DH: $42MM through 2018
  • Seth Smith, OF: $7MM through 2016 (includes buyout of $7MM club option for 2017)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

New general manager Jerry Dipoto has wasted little time in reshaping Seattle’s baseball operations, hiring several new faces for the minor league, player development and scouting departments in an effort to upgrade a talent pipeline that faltered under former GM Jack Zduriencik.  A lot of changes have been made to the on-field unit as well, most visibly in a revamped coaching staff led by a first-time manager in Scott Servais.  It adds up to an organization that will (in theory) be on the same page and use analytical information as a cornerstone, something that wasn’t the case under Zduriencik’s tenure or in Dipoto’s previous GM stint in Anaheim.

While this bodes well for the Mariners over the long term, Dipoto will have to hit the ground running this winter.  The M’s fell way short of lofty offseason expectations in 2015, though with so many major stars on board, the feeling definitely still exists in Seattle that the Mariners are closer to contending than they are to a rebuild.  It makes sense for the Mariners to go for it while Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez and Kyle Seager are all still productive, as it’s not known how long the window will be open; after all, Cano and Hernandez showed some warning signs of decline last season.

The Angels signed some major free agents when Dipoto was GM, though it’s well-known that owner Arte Moreno played a huge role in the signings of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton.  Dipoto himself is a bit more reticent about free agents, telling Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that “the trade market is always my first alternative.  You draft, scout and develop, you trade, and to me free agents augment the roster you have. In a perfect world, you get to a stage where the foundation is strong enough you use free agency as a pure accent move rather than a foundational builder.”

This would seem to imply that the M’s probably won’t be players for Chris Davis, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton or other open-market superstars who could turn roster weak spots into immediate strengths.  Further complicating matters is the fact that Seattle fell painfully shy of a protected pick in the first round of the 2016 draft, falling to the 11th overall selection by virtue of a tiebreaker with the White Sox (who had the same 76-86 record).  If the Mariners were to sign a free agent who had rejected a qualifying offer, they’d lose that 11th overall pick (the top unprotected pick in next year’s draft), which I highly doubt Dipoto would be willing to do given his quest to rebuild the farm system.

With almost $79MM committed to just five players in 2016, the Mariners also might not have the available payroll to afford another huge salary.  While massive contracts may not happen, Seattle could still ink a few lower-cost free agent deals.

For instance, the industry expects that the Mariners will re-sign Hisashi Iwakuma, as both the team and the player have interest in a reunion.  This would be a good move for a Seattle team in need of proven starting pitching, and since Iwakuma turns 35 in April and the free agent pitching market is rather deep, the M’s might be able to re-sign him on a two-year deal in the $28-30MM range.  If there’s enough demand that a third year is required, then the club is looking at a three-year/$42-45MM contract for the Japanese righty.  Things could change on the open market, of course, though at the moment the M’s look like the early favorite for Iwakuma’s services.

Assuming Iwakuma re-signs, he would join Hernandez, Taijuan Walker and new acquisition Nate Karns in Seattle’s rotation.  James Paxton is tentatively slotted into a spot as well, though he’s failed to pitch more than 74 innings in either of the last two seasons due to a shoulder injury (in 2014) and an injured finger tendon (in 2015).

Roenis Elias, Vidal Nuno and former top prospect Mike Montgomery are on board as depth options or fifth starter candidates if Iwakuma leaves.  A fairly inexpensive veteran could also be added to the mix to fight for that last rotation job, and the M’s have had some good luck with veteran reclamation projects looking to rebuild themselves at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.

Karns, left-hander C.J. Riefenhauser and minor league outfielder Boog Powell came to Seattle in Dipoto’s first notable deal as GM, with Brad Miller, Danny Farquhar and Logan Morrison heading to Tampa Bay in return.  Karns posted a 3.67 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 2.59 K/BB rate over 147 innings with the Rays last season in his first extended taste of Major League action.  He’s a bit old for a rookie (Karns turns 28 in November) but he’s controlled through the 2020 season and looks to be a very promising arm in the M’s rotation for years to come.

Riefenhauser hasn’t shown much over his 20 career MLB innings, though he adds a needed left-handed option to a bullpen that Dipoto has openly stated will be an area of focus this winter, and he has a strong Triple-A track record.  Tom Wilhelmsen and Carson Smith are basically the only relievers who look to have guaranteed jobs next year.  Rookie Tony Zych will get a long look in Spring Training after an impressive late-season callup, while Charlie Furbush will probably return unless the biceps injury that sidelined him for much of the second half continues to be an issue (which could lead to a non-tender).

Wilhelmsen and Smith both saw action at closer in the wake of Fernando Rodney’s implosion, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Mariners brought in a more established ninth-inning man given that Wilhelmsen has struggled to keep the closer’s job both in 2015 and in the past, while Smith also lost the gig back to Wilhelmsen late last year.  Joakim Soria makes sense as a target, or perhaps someone with past closer experience like Jonathan Broxton if the M’s wanted to at least keep Wilhelmsen/Smith in the mix for the closing job.  The Mariners are one of a few teams who have scouted Korean closer Seung-hwan Oh, who could be an intriguing option as he’s planning to make the jump to North American baseball.

Seattle could be very deep or very thin in left-handed relief options depending on Furbush’s health, Riefenhauser’s Spring Training performance and the roles of Nuno/Montgomery (who could be used in the bullpen or kept stretched out in the minors as starters).  The Mariners will at least check in on the offseason’s top-tier lefty relief options (Antonio Bastardo, Tony Sipp, etc.) and veteran Joe Beimel could also be re-signed to reinforce the southpaw corps.

Around the diamond, the Mariners are only set at third base (Seager), second base (Cano), and wherever Cruz plays, which is probably more likely to be DH than right field next season.  He’s been a defensive liability for years, and Dipoto has spoken of wanting to improve the Mariners’ athleticism and defense, particularly in regards to playing in a spacious ballpark like Safeco Field.

Powell and the recently-claimed Dan Robertson were Dipoto’s first steps towards addressing this outfield need, as both can play all three positions.  Robertson may be more of a depth option while Powell is likely on the verge of reaching the bigs after a solid performance in 246 Triple-A PA in 2015.  An everyday assignment may be a stretch, but Powell could certainly factor into the Mariners’ wide-open center field spot, if not early in the year then midseason.  Powell and left field incumbent Seth Smith are both left-handed hitters, so a right-handed hitting free agent outfielder like Rajai Davis or Chris B. Young could be a fairly inexpensive fits as platoon partners.  Robertson could also be an internal option for a right-handed platoon bat, and Franklin Gutierrez is another familiar face the M’s could look to re-sign for a part-time role.

If the Mariners want a full-time option in center, any number of free agent or (further) trade possibilities could be considered.  Jackie Bradley, Juan Lagares, Leonys Martin, Marcell Ozuna, Dalton Pompey and Melvin Upton could all conceivably be made available for trade this winter.  Denard Span would make sense in free agency, as he wouldn’t cost a draft pick since the Nationals didn’t extend him a qualifying offer.  Austin Jackson likely isn’t an option given how he has already under-performed in an Mariners uniform.  Dexter Fowler and Colby Rasmus, the other two major center fielders on the market, do have qualifying offers attached so they’re not likely to be targeted.

While I noted earlier that the Mariners probably won’t be big free agent spenders, if they were to make a big splash, Yoenis Cespedes could be a fit.  Due to his midseason trade, Cespedes isn’t subject to the qualifying offer and can be signed without draft pick compensation.  He certainly matches Dipoto’s preference for an athletic outfielder, though while he’s one of the game’s best defensive left fielders, Cespedes has graded as below-average in center over his career.  He could handle center for a year and then move back to his customary left field spot once Smith’s contract is up, or Cespedes could be installed into left immediately and Smith would become trade bait.

With Miller now in Tampa Bay, that solidifies Ketel Marte as the top choice at shortstop.  Marte played well enough last year to crack Baseball America’s midseason top 50 prospects list and earn his first call-up, then fit right in to the tune of a .283/.351/.402 slash line over 247 PA.  Marte has the inside track on the everyday job, with Chris Taylor on board as the middle infield backup.

Mike Zunino is still too young (24) to be considered a bust, especially given his top prospect pedigree and his already-outstanding defensive ability.  At the plate, however, Zunino posted a miserable .174/.230/.300 line over 386 PA last season, so Seattle certainly needs a catcher to pick up some of the offensive slack.  While Chris Iannetta himself struggled at the plate in 2015, I’m guessing Dipoto might be interested in his former Angels backstop as a veteran mentor to Zunino who can still contribute on the field.  If not Iannetta, Geovany Soto or Alex Avila make sense among free agent catchers, though if the Mariners weren’t committed to Zunino at least half the playing time, they could aim for Dioner Navarro or A.J. Pierzynski.

The first base situation became clearer when Morrison was sent to the Rays, and his departure probably saves the M’s from having to non-tender him to avoid a projected $4.1MM arbitration salary.  Mark Trumbo delivered some pop after joining the club from the Diamondbacks, though his lousy defense resulted in only 0.4 fWAR in 361 PA as a Mariner.  Trumbo’s limited skill set and projected $9.1MM salary combine to make him a non-tender candidate as well, though my guess is that the M’s would explore trading Trumbo rather than simply cutting him for no return.

With so much uncertainty at first, any number of interesting bats like Adam Lind, Ryan Howard, Brandon Moss, Adam LaRoche, Yonder Alonso or Pedro Alvarez being available in trades (or free agency, in the case of non-tenders).  While none are guaranteed to be big offensive powerhouses, they could at least be part of a platoon that could do more at a lesser cost than Trumbo’s $9.1MM, especially since some of the teams making those deals would have to eat some money, i.e. the Phillies and Howard or the White Sox and LaRoche.  A huge signing like Chris Davis can’t be completely ruled out simply because he’d be such a big upgrade, though as mentioned earlier, giving up another first-round draft pick and adding another huge salary would seem counter to what Dipoto is trying to do with the team.  A trade could be the likelier route to a first base upgrade.

With all this talk of trades, however, it’s well worth looking at what exactly the Mariners have to offer in return.  Further trades from the Major League roster could be a bit difficult, though, since the M’s were already lacking in depth.  As noted earlier, Trumbo or Smith could be trade bait.  If another catcher is acquired, Jesus Sucre, John Hicks or Steve Baron could be dealt.  One of Elias, Nuno or Montgomery could be moved if Iwakuma re-signs and Paxton proves he’s healthy.  These small pieces won’t combine for any blockbusters, but Seattle could help their own depth problems by moving expendable pieces for bench parts that are more likely to contribute in 2016.  Case in point, that deal with the Rays looks like a strong one on paper for Dipoto, as Morrison and Farquhar might have outlived their usefulness in Seattle.

Baseball America ranked the Mariners’ farm system 25th of 30 teams prior to the season, and that was before top prospects Alex Jackson and D.J. Peterson both suffered through rough 2015 campaigns.  While both (Jackson, in particular) are still well-regarded, Dipoto and his new minor league staff may not have the same attachment to Zduriencik’s prospects and could see them as trade chips while they still have value.  On the other hand, the reason for the player development overhaul was to better develop prospects both in the future and in the present, not to write off the current batch of young talent.  Given how thin Seattle’s system is, you’re probably only going to see a notable prospect traded if Dipoto and his staff have already decided against the player.

In a way, Dipoto finds himself in something of the same position that he was in as the Angels general manager — a few superstars on huge contracts, a few regulars best suited to platoon duty, little minor league depth, and some payroll limitations.  In Anaheim, however, those limitations were Moreno not wanting to exceed the $189MM luxury tax threshold, while in Seattle, Dipoto will have at least $130MM to work with.  While that’s a healthy number, if you count Iwakuma’s projected salary with the five players under contract, that leaves roughly $33MM for 19 members of the 25-man roster.

Dipoto won’t be judged entirely on his first offseason, of course, especially given the less-than-great shape the organization was in when he inherited the job and the sweeping changes he’s already trying to implement.  Many of the players from the Mariners’ 87-75 season in 2014, however, are still around, so a return to contention shouldn’t be out of the question as long as at least some of the major question mark positions are resolved.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Bundy, Green, Mets

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No free agent has ever accepted a qualifying offer, and if all 20 of this winter’s QO players reject their offers as well, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal figures it may inspire changes to the free agent process in the next collective bargaining agreement.  (The current CBA expires on December 1, 2016.)  The large number of QOs in play, Rosenthal reasons, might actually make some teams with their own qualifying offer players less hesitant to give up draft picks to sign such free agents.  The Royals, for instance, would only drop a few spots in the draft order if they gave up their 27th overall pick to sign a QO free agent and then let Alex Gordon leave, thus netting them a supplemental first-rounder back.  Here’s some more from around baseball…

  • The Yankees generally haven’t made recent free agent splashes unless they had money coming off the books and could recoup surrendered draft picks via their own departing free agents, so Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders if the Bombers could be fairly quiet this winter, especially when it comes to qualifying offer players.  While the draft pick compensation is certainly a concern, I’m not sure the payroll is necessarily an obstacle.  As I noted in my Yankees Offseason Outlook piece, the club could sign a major free agent to a backloaded deal, as Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and C.C. Sabathia will all have their contracts end within the next two years.
  • The Orioles have been very active in the Rule 5 draft in recent years, though MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko notes that the club may not be able to pick a reliever this year due to Dylan Bundy’s situation.  The former top prospect is out of options and recovering from a spate of injuries, so the O’s could ease Bundy back in via a bullpen role.  It would therefore be difficult for the club to manage with two pen spots filled with a rehab project and a raw minor league talent.
  • New Padres manager Andy Green is profiled by MLB.com’s Corey Brock, detailing Green’s playing career in the Majors and Japan, his move into coaching and his funny negotiation with then-Diamondbacks executive Mike Rizzo after being drafted in 2000.
  • Mets fans often clamor for their team to be bigger players in free agency, though Mike Puma of the New York Post notes that the club hasn’t had much success on the open market under Sandy Alderson’s tenure.
  • Also from Puma’s piece, he writes that the Mets could be open to re-signing Bartolo Colon if the veteran is willing to pitch as a swingman, and if the team is able to deal Jon Niese to create rotation space.
  • ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider-only link) provides his ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, complete with contract valuations based on what Law would feel comfortable giving each player, not what they’ll actually receive in the open market.  For instance, Law would only offer Yoenis Cespedes a three-year, $60MM contract due to concerns about his on-base skills and a desire to avoid Cespedes’ decline years — MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes’ Top 50 Free Agents list, which predicts real-world contract values, has Cespedes receiving over twice Law’s number at six years and $140MM.

NL Notes: Stewart, Stearns, Perez, Cubs

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Here’s the latest from a few National League general managers as they prepare for the upcoming GM Meetings…

  • Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart would prefer to address his team’s pitching needs via free agency rather than dealing from his position player depth, he tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  “I’m kind of in the mode of if I can hold on to my depth, then I’d like to hold on to it,” Stewart said.  “I want to see if we can accomplish what we want to accomplish by dealing with these free agents. That’s probably my first choice. That’s probably the way I would want to do it.”  Stewart said he’s already contacted with agents for several pitchers the D’Backs are interested in, and hopes to have more such discussions during the GM Meetings.
  • The Diamondbacks’ first round draft pick (13th overall) isn’t protected but Stewart sounded open to giving up the pick to sign a qualifying offer free agent if “whoever we get is impactful enough that we would want to do that.”
  • While the D’Backs are aiming at free agents first, Brewers GM David Stearns said his team is (not surprisingly) planning to focus more on drafting and trades in this stage of the team-building process, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes.  “That doesn’t mean we’ll never be a player in free agency. It means we’ll have to be very selective and opportunistic about the times that we do invest in the free-agent market,” Stearns said.
  • The Brewers made several roster cuts over the last week, which Stearns said was a way to “create roster flexibility” for future acquisitions and free some 40-man space to protect minor leaguers from the Rule 5 draft next month.  Hernan Perez elected free agency after being outrighted, and Stearns said the Crew will try to re-sign the infielder.
  • Cubs GM Jed Hoyer believes teams could make some trades made during or just after the GM Meetings since the offseason is already heating up, he tells Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  “There’s probably going to be a little more urgency for teams. Given the fact there’s already been a trade, I think people realize that things could happen quickly. I think people are going to be ready to move quickly,” Hoyer said, referring to the six-player deal already swung between the Rays and Mariners on Thursday.  This doesn’t necessarily mean the Cubs themselves will be busy, though Hoyer has already had at least “exploratory” talks with all 29 other teams.
  • Hoyer expects to be asked about the Cubs’ position player depth in possible trades for pitching.  While the Cubs like their everyday and bench roster, “you can never say never,” the GM said.  “If something makes sense where we would trade out some surplus on the position-playing side for some pitching depth, that’s something we have to explore.”

Pirates Notes: Meadows, Prospects, Injuries

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“The Pirates are facing perhaps their most challenging offseason of the Neal Huntington Era — rivaled only by the 2012-13 offseason when jobs might have been at stake,” Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes.  Sawchik gives his take on the many big decisions faced by the Bucs this winter, and he proposes signing utilityman Steve Pearce and “a second-tier starting pitcher” such as Scott Kazmir or Ian Kennedy in free agency, dealing or non-tendering Pedro Alvarez, and trading Mark Melancon and rebuilding the bullpen with less-costly arms.  It’s possible the Pirates have already undertaken one of Sawchik’s suggestions (“bid aggressively” on Byung-Ho Park) since the Bucs haven’t been eliminated as the mystery winner of the highest posting big on the Korean first baseman.

  • One scout is excited about Pirates prospect Austin Meadows, telling Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (on Twitter) that he feels the Bucs could “not miss a beat” in the outfield if Andrew McCutchen left in free agency.  The scout believes Meadows could take over in left field with Starling Marte moved to fill McCutchen’s spot in center.
  • Meadows is one of several Pirates prospects cited by Bill West of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review as important to the club’s future if current start depart as free agents.  West thinks 2012 supplemental first-rounder Barrett Barnes, however, could be called up ahead of Meadows to fill any possible vacancies in the outfield; Barnes is almost four years older than Meadows, though his progress was slowed by injuries.  While West doesn’t address this topic in his piece, I’d think it’s also possible one of two of these minor leaguers could be trade chips as the Bucs look to bolster their Major League roster for a World Series run.  (Though probably no more than one or two, as mid-market teams like the Pirates are particularly reliant on their farm system.)
  • Ten Pirates prospects underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015, Biertempfel reports in a separate piece.  This has required in some shuffling in the club’s minor league pitching staffs, and Biertempfel figures Pittsburgh will sign one or two veteran arms to minor league deals over the winter.

MLBTR’s Zach Links also contributed to this post

AL Central Notes: Soria, Indians, Cueto, Glass

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The Tigers have contacted Joakim Soria’s agent about a possible return to Detroit, MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports, though they’ll be one of several teams in the mix for his services.  The reliever-needy Tigers have a distinct need for a solid bullpen arm, but Aroldis Chapman probably isn’t a fit since Detroit aren’t keen on dealing from their just-rebuild farm system to match the Reds’ high asking price for the ace closer.  Here’s some more from around the AL Central…

  • Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (via Twitter) that he will look into trading a starting pitcher in order to improve elsewhere, though it’s not necessarily something that he’d like to do.  The Tribe received a lot of interest in their young starters last summer; Carlos Carrasco drew particular attention and Cleveland in fact almost dealt him to the Blue Jays.
  • While the Indians may not be able to spend big on free agents, what they can offer is playing time at third, first or in the outfield, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (Insider-only link).  This might be significant in helping the Tribe land a lower-tier free agent veteran; Olney suggests the likes of Juan Uribe, Justin Morneau, Mike Napoli and Will Venable as possible fits.
  • Johnny Cueto’s agent, Bryce Dixon, also Duquette and Bowden (Twitter links) to discuss his client’s free agency.  Dixon expressed confidence that teams will see that Cueto his healthy after viewing his medicals, and if Cueto had been hurt, he wouldn’t have been able to deliver such strong results for the Royals in two of his postseason outings.
  • Royals owner David Glass deserves credit for standing behind GM Dayton Moore during tough times, Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com writes.  Moore’s tenure is the fourth longest among current general managers behind Brian Sabean of the Giants (now executive VP of baseball operations), Brian Cashman of the Yankees, and Jon Daniels of the Rangers.  Those executives, however, enjoyed either quick success or quicker returns on rebuilds than Moore, as the Royals didn’t even post a winning record until Moore’s seventh full season running the team.
  • Joe Mauer will be 36 when his current contract expires in three years, but the Twins first baseman tells Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that he hasn’t given any thought about retirement at that time, only that he “probably” wants to play “as long as I can.”

MLBTR’s Zach Links also contributed to this post

Heyman’s Latest: Free Agents, O’Day, Gordon, Hunter

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CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman shares his predictions about where this offseason’s top 50 free agents will earn in their next contracts.  Be sure to check out MLBTR’s own top 50 free agents list, as Heyman and Tim Dierkes have a few interesting differences over some contract values and where some players are ranked within the top 50.  In other news from Heyman, his latest Inside Baseball column recaps several items that he and others have reported over the last few weeks, as well as some fresh hot stove tidbits…

  • The Dodgers, Nationals, Red Sox and Tigers are among the many teams who have already shown interest in Darren O’Day.  It’s no surprise that quartet has been particularly eager to check in with O’Day given how all four teams are known to be hunting for bullpen upgrades this winter.  The Orioles, the righty reliever’s former team, “are trailing at present.”
  • The Royals will look to re-sign Alex Gordon but are hoping to do so on a three- or four-year contract.  Given how Gordon’s well-rounded game makes him a fit on several teams, he’ll easily top the three-year plateau and even four might be a pipe dream for Kansas City unless the Royals inflate his average annual value.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts Gordon will land a five-year contract worth $105MM.
  • We’ve already heard that the Twins were disappointed by Torii Hunter’s retirement, and beyond the loss of his clubhouse leadership, Heyman adds that the team will miss him from an on-field standpoint as well.  Hunter would’ve been an insurance policy since the Twins aren’t sure if former top prospect Byron Buxton is ready for an everyday job.  Buxton’s rookie season was a forgettable one, as he hit .209/.250/.326 over 138 plate appearances and also spent about seven weeks on the DL with a sprained thumb.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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With several key players hitting the free agent market and areas of need all over the diamond, the Orioles’ roster could look significantly different come Opening Day.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Adam Jones, OF: $49MM through 2018
  • J.J. Hardy, SS: $28.5MM through 2017 (includes $2MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2018; option vests based on plate appearances)
  • Ubaldo Jimenez, SP: $26.5MM through 2017

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

The Orioles have one of the most distinguished free agent classes of any team, and yet even with all of these notables hitting the open market, Adam Jones sees it as an opportunity.  “It’s going to be exciting to see what goes on this offseason because I know when you have a lot of free agents that means you have a lot of money to spend,” Jones told the Baltimore Sun’s Dan Connolly in a late-season interview.  “And so, hopefully, I can influence some officials to spend a little bit of that money.”

Since Dan Duquette took over as executive VP of baseball operations in late 2011, the Orioles have indeed shown an increased willingness to spend, going from an $84MM Opening Day payroll in 2012 to just under the $119MM mark for last season’s opener.  A nice chunk of that increase has gone to Jones himself via his six-year, $85.5MM extension, which is still the largest contract in O’s franchise history.  The Orioles may well have to break that record in order to re-sign some of their own top free agents or add major talents to replace those departing stars, which also means overcoming a well-documented wariness to long-term free agent deals.

First, the good news for the Orioles and their fans.  Manny Machado was healthy and had a superstar year, Jones continued to produce, Jonathan Schoop broke out as an everyday second baseman, Ubaldo Jimenez had a solid bounce-back campaign and Zach Britton cemented himself as a reliable closer while headlining one of the game’s better bullpens last season.  Combine these with former fourth overall pick Kevin Gausman, who is now established as a full-time starter, and there are worse building blocks to have in place for a team looking to reload as an AL East contender.

The problem, however, is that these are also pretty much the only areas of relative certainty amidst a very unsettled Orioles roster.  It’s possible that the O’s will have openings at first base (Chris Davis), setup man (Darren O’Day), right field (Gerardo Parra), catcher (Matt Wieters) and at the front of the rotation (Wei-Yin Chen).

Let’s begin with the rotation, as it stands out as an area of need even if Chen returns  — a seemingly unlikely scenario, according to several pundits.  Beyond Jimenez and Gausman, Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez are likely to be back despite rough seasons that saw their ERAs catch up to their generally unimpressive career advanced metrics.  It was poor timing for the arb-eligible pitchers, who failed to maximize their earning power. Assuming the Orioles bring them back, a total of $11.1MM in combined arbitration earnings is a very good price for two innings-eaters (though obviously Baltimore hopes the two can deliver more than just innings next year).  If not, Tillman and Gonzalez could both potentially be non-tender candidates come next winter as their price tags keep rising.

A more aggressive move would be for the Orioles to non-tender Gonzalez (the less established of the two) this winter and replace him with one of Tyler Wilson or Mike Wright.  This frees up more money to pursue a true top-of-the-rotation starter, and there’s no shortage of big-name aces on the market this winter.  Baltimore could also tender Tillman and Gonzalez and then trade one or both to open a rotation spot, though they’d certainly be selling low on either pitcher.

Of course, the O’s have been particularly hesitant to spend big on pitching.  Jimenez’s four-year, $50MM deal is the largest contract the team has ever given to a pitcher, and that’s probably one Duquette would like to have back given Jimenez’s up-and-down performance through two seasons.  It’s probably safe to assume that David Price and Zack Greinke are out of Baltimore’s price range.  Jordan Zimmermann or Johnny Cueto would command a deal worth at least twice Jimenez’s price tag, and any of the names in the second and third tiers of the free agent pitching market (Chen himself, Mike Leake, Jeff Samardzija, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy) are all good bets to exceed Jimenez’s number.

Could the Orioles deal for an ace?  They may not have the trade chips available given their thin farm system, which could be even more lacking given Dylan Bundy’s ongoing shoulder problems.  The former top prospect is out of options, so while he could still emerge as a secret weapon if healthy, he’ll have only a short window in the Arizona Fall League and Spring Training to prove he’s fit.

Expect the O’s to look at Scott Kazmir, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ or any other quality starters who posted Chen-like numbers in 2015 but could be signed on shorter-term deals than the four or even five years that Chen could command.  Simply replacing Chen, of course, doesn’t solve Baltimore’s overall pitching issues.  Either owner Peter Angelos shows a greater willingness to spend on free agent arms or else the Orioles will again be relying on a lot of things to go right for their incumbent starters.

The same question of spending also applies to Davis, who is projected by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes to land a six-year, $144MM contract this offseason.  Unlike the free agent pitching market, this winter’s list of available first basemen isn’t star-studded, so there’s no easy way to make up Davis’ 47 home runs.  Someone like Adam Lind (if the Brewers either don’t pick up his option or look to trade him) could be at least a passable replacement; while Lind isn’t an everyday option since he can’t hit left-handed pitching, he could be platooned with prospect Christian Walker, a right-handed bat.  The Orioles could also look to trade for a similar left-handed first baseman like Ryan Howard or Adam LaRoche, or sign a potential non-tender candidate such as Pedro Alvarez or Logan Morrison. The soon-to-be-posted Byung-ho Park could also be a consideration. After all, Baltimore has dabbled in the Korean market in recent years (e.g., Suk-min Yoon) and successfully nabbed Chen from Taiwan.

Filling that gap at first base would open the door for the Orioles to replace Davis’ power with a big corner outfield bat, though names like Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward would again require huge financial commitments.  Baltimore’s only current corner outfield options are David Lough, Nolan Reimold and Junior Lake, so it’s probably no surprise that the team is interested in bringing Parra back to bolster either left or right field.

In late August, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd projected that Parra could earn a 3-4 year deal with an average annual value in the $10-$15MM range, though that was before Parra suffered through a miserable September and finished with only a .625 OPS in his 238 PA as an Oriole.  Even if Parra’s poor finish lowered his price into the three-year/$24MM range, in my opinion Parra may not be worth such a commitment and the O’s could instead use that money on a more consistent free agent bat.

Given the question marks in the corner outfield spots and at first base, re-signing Steve Pearce could be a sneaky-important move for the Orioles given his versatility.  Pearce battled some injuries last season and regressed after his big 2014 campaign, though he still hit 15 homers in 325 PA.  While Pearce’s contract value is somewhat hard to predict, his price tag shouldn’t be all that big, unless the Orioles lose him to a team that can offer more regular playing time than the part-time role he’d likely receive in Baltimore.

Beyond the headline names on the free agent outfield market, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Orioles made runs at signing Ben Zobrist or Colby Rasmus, both of whom drew interest from Baltimore last winter.  Since the O’s prefer shorter-term free agent deals in general, both could be good fits — Rasmus has said he may not want to play longer than a few more seasons, while Zobrist is entering his age-35 season and may not command too lengthy a contract.  (Though a four-year deal isn’t out of the question for Zobrist since his versatility is expected to draw a large amount of interest in his services.)

As mentioned, the Orioles had a pretty strong bullpen last season.  While O’Day’s great numbers were a big part of that success, Baltimore could withstand his departure by elevating someone like Brad Brach to the setup role.  The O’s could also explore a pretty strong setup reliever market, looking at the likes of Mark Lowe, Tony Sipp or Shawn Kelley to replace O’Day (who may earn the largest contract of any relief pitcher this offseason), or perhaps go with lower-cost options.

The O’s also have a replacement for Wieters in the form of Caleb Joseph, who only hit .234/.299/.394 with 11 homers over 355 PA last year but is a solid defender and pitch-framer.  There’s been speculation that Wieters might not even be issued a qualifying offer by the Orioles in the wake of his disappointing 2015 season, as the catcher struggled both offensively and defensively after returning from Tommy John surgery.

I tend to believe that Wieters would indeed reject a QO if offered.  Firstly, it would be stunning if the first player to accept a qualifying offer was a Scott Boras client given how the agent has so harshly criticized the QO concept.  Secondly, between the thin catching market and Wieters’ star pedigree, he’s sure to find a multi-year deal even in the wake of a tough season.  Baltimore can therefore be pretty confident in issuing Wieters a qualifying offer and at least ensuring themselves a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

The Orioles have just under $42MM committed to three players (Jones, Jimenez, J.J. Hardy) for 2016 and MLBTR projects roughly $34.9MM for their 11 arbitration-eligible players, assuming everyone is tendered a contract.  Pre-arb players in regular roles (i.e. Schoop, Gausman, Joseph) will take up a few more roster spots at minimum salaries.  If the 2016 payroll stays in the $119MM range, that leaves Duquette with approximately $42MM to work with this winter.

That’s certainly enough room to add at least one big salary into the mix.  Since Angelos has specifically gone on record as saying the team will try to re-sign Davis, I would guess that if the Orioles are going to break the bank on a signing, it will be for the slugging first baseman since that kind of power is hard to find in today’s game.  The O’s have been more willing to spend on position players (Jones, Hardy, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis) than on pitchers, so it makes sense that they’d try harder to retain a familiar big bat than they would a free agent ace.

Jones, Jimenez and Hardy are also the only players signed beyond 2016, so the Orioles have space on the books for another long-term commitment.  It seems likely, however, that the O’s will look to the future in another sense by considering extensions for Schoop and possibly Machado, though Duquette has said that a Machado extension isn’t a major priority for this offseason.

This certainly promises to be, by far, the Orioles’ busiest winter under Duquette, as his tenure has been marked more by canny under-the-radar acquisitions  — i.e. Chen, Gonzalez or Pearce — than by flashy trades or free agent signings.  Even the one-year, $8MM signing of Nelson Cruz in February 2014 (Duquette’s most successful free agent deal) was rather a unique circumstance given how Cruz’s market was chilled by a PED suspension and the qualifying offer.

Hardy was the only one of Baltimore’s free agents to re-sign last winter, as the Orioles lost Cruz, Markakis and Andrew Miller to free agency.  The O’s have internal replacements for a few of this winter’s free agents, but another mass exodus would leave the team with simply too many holes to fill.  Duquette will have to be creative and Angelos will have to be willing to go beyond his contractual comfort zone in order to get the Orioles back into playoff contention.  If not…well, if last winter’s free agent 0-fer allegedly led to tension between Duquette and manager Buck Showalter, a repeat performance could result in some front office changes.

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