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Quick Hits: Dodgers, Klentak, Vlad Jr., D’Backs

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More and more teams are adopting the formula of hiring an Ivy League-educated, analytics-based GM and/or a veteran player as manager despite little or no coaching experience, a trend FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal finds a bit troubling.  A specific hiring model may make it harder for minorities to make inroads into front office or managerial positions.  Teams that rely too much on analytics could run into as many problems as front offices that are too “old-school,” while Rosenthal notes that several long-time coaches or managers may now find themselves frozen out of the job market simply because they’re not fresh faces.

Here’s some more from around baseball as we head into World Series week…

  • While the Dodgers have some weak spots on their roster, ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider link) argues that there is no need for the club to step back for a mini-rebuilding year in 2016.  Los Angeles has won three straight NL West titles despite those flaws and has an ownership willing to spend record amounts, so Olney feels there’s no reason to waste a year of Clayton Kershaw’s prime to retool.
  • New Phillies GM Matt Klentak is profiled by Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, who speaks to Klentak’s old Dartmouth coach (Bob Whalen) and his old Angels colleague, director of baseball operations Justin Hollander.
  • The Blue Jays expended quite a bit of their prospect capital in making the trades that helped them win the AL East, though GM Alex Anthopoulos tells Baseball America’s Alexis Brudnicki that he feels the farm system has already been replenished by new talent that has emerged.  International signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of the most-touted new prospects in the system, and Anthopoulos notes that Guerrero has been working out at third base, a bit of a surprise since most pundits felt Guerrero’s body type would eventually see him in a corner outfield/first base/DH role down the road.
  • The Diamondbacks have interviewed at least eight candidates in their search for a new pitching coach, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.  The list includes each of the pitching coaches from their full-season minor league affiliates, Yankees minor league pitching coordinator Gil Patterson and Athletics minor league pitching coordinator Garvin Alston.  Piecoro isn’t sure if the D’Backs will look at any of the available veteran pitching coaches on the market, such as Mike Maddux or Rick Honeycutt.

World Series Notes: Royals, Mets, Rosters, Drafts

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Very few pundits saw the Mets or (despite being defending AL champs) Royals reaching the Fall Classic, yet both teams are now preparing for Game 1 of the World Series.  Here’s some info on both teams, looking back at how they got to the brink of a championship…

  • It took a while for Dayton Moore’s rebuilding plan to show results, but the Royals GM tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick that he sees past mistakes as learning experiences that helped he and the club shape the current winning roster.  Canny trades and free agent signings within the last year were a big part of Kansas City’s success, yet the fact that so many of the Royals are homegrown prospects who have spent years playing together is seen as a positive by manager Ned Yost.  “They came up as a core, and they won championships in Double-A and Triple-A together….Having them experience that over the last five or six years, it just gives them a certain comfort level when you get into this type of position. They know each other. They all have the same goals and the same dreams and the same values. It just makes for a closer team,” Yost said.
  • Over half of the Royals’ ALCS roster didn’t play for the team in last year’s World Series, The Associated Press’ Dave Skretta writes, a somewhat under-the-radar overhaul that mostly focused on adding a lot of new pitchers.
  • Given how both teams looked to rebuild though young talent, it’s no surprise that many former blue-chip prospects are now playing key roles for the Royals and Mets, MLB.com’s Jim Callis notes.  He lists the top 15 players in this World Series based on their original prospect status, with Alex Gordon leading the way.
  • Game 1 will fall almost exactly five years after the day Sandy Alderson was hired as the Mets’ GM, and ESPN’s Adam Rubin looks at the tough road Alderson had to navigate, especially given the financial limitations on the franchise due to the Wilpon family’s losses in the Bernie Madoff scandal.  The Mets’ big deadline trades and the Nationals’ surprising collapse opened the door for this season’s NL East title, and Rubin notes that Alderson also laid groundwork in the form of the Zack Wheeler-for-Carlos Beltran trade in 2011 and the deal that brought Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud for R.A. Dickey in early 2013.  Alderson was also helped by several young players drafted under former GM Omar Minaya who are now franchise cornerstones.

This Date In Transactions History: Starlin Castro

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It was on this day in 2006 that a 16-year-old from Monte Cristi, Dominican Republic signed an amateur contract with the Cubs.  Over the last decade, Starlin Castro has gone from being a prized prospect and “face of the franchise” stardom all the way to perhaps being becoming a symbol of the team’s rebuilding years rather than a cornerstone of their future.

Castro quickly rose through Chicago’s minor league system and debuted in the majors in 2010.  At first, it seemed like Castro was a natural, posting a .755 OPS over 125 games in his rookie year and then hitting .307/.341/.432 (with a league-leading 207 hits) over 715 plate appearances in 2011.  Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer cleared the deck of several of the old regime’s players in their first year running the team, but they quickly locked up Castro, signing the shortstop to a seven-year, $60MM extension in August 2012.

While that extension has been widely debated in the last few years, at the time it was seen as a logical move for the Cubs.  The deal gave them cost certainty over Castro, who was quickly going to become expensive due to an extra arbitration year as a Super Two player.  The contract gave Chicago control over all four arb years, three free agent years and potentially a fourth, as per the $16MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2020 season.  With Castro enjoying another strong year in 2012, many pundits figured the Cubs were saving themselves money by locking up a young player at a premium position through his 20’s when his best years were theoretically ahead of him.

That investment, however, looks shakier now given how Castro’s inconsistent play over the last three seasons.  Castro enjoyed a strong 2014 campaign that saw him hit .292/.339/.438 with 14 homers in 569 PA, but that was sandwiched between two poor seasons.  Castro put up virtual replacement player numbers in 2013 (0.1 fWAR) and then last year hit .265/.296/.375 in 578 PA, losing his starting shortstop job to Addison Russell to boot.

Rumors of a position switch or a trade had swirled around Castro essentially ever since the Cubs acquired Russell from the A’s in the summer of 2014.  Suddenly, the Cubs had a new blue-chip shortstop prospect to replace their old one, not to mention a young slugger of a middle infield option in Javier Baez.  There was great speculation that Castro could be moved to clear a big contract and make way for the future, and it’s possible that a trade could still happen this winter.

That said, Castro’s move to second base turned his season around.  He hit .236/.271/.304 in 435 PA from April 5 to August 6, exclusively playing shortstop.  His first game at the keystone came on August 7, and Castro proceeded to slash a whopping .353/.373/.588 over his final 143 PA.  With Baez still struggling to avoid strikeouts and fully harness his power on the Major League level, the Cubs may well decide to just keep Castro at second next year to either see what they have (with both he or Baez, as well) or at least give Castro more of a showcase should they pursue a midseason trade.

It will probably take more than 143 good plate appearances to convince another team to give up anything of major value since Castro is still owed at least $38MM over the next four years.  That said, Castro is still only 25 and has three All-Star appearances under his belt.  There are lots of teams in need of help at either middle infield position who could be willing to overlook Castro’s lack of plate discipline and shaky glove, at the right price.

The Cubs already tried to “aggressively” trade him at last summer’s trade deadline, so it remains to be seen if Castro will remain through this new era of competitive Cubs baseball, or if Castro may one day appear in a future This Date In Transactions History that details his move out of the Windy City.

NL Central Notes: Brewers, Cherington, Schwarber

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The Brewers have told other teams that they’re open to hearing offers for anyone on their roster, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports in his latest Insider-only column.  As Olney notes, this could make Jonathan Lucroy a potential trade candidate this winter, though obviously, “only in the right deal.”  Lucroy’s name was mentioned in several trade rumors last summer since Milwaukee fell out of the pennant race so soon, though the Crew reportedly had no interest in dealing the catcher.  New GM David Stearns could have a different perspective, however.  In his recent Brewers Offseason Outlook piece, MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth speculated about a possibly Lucroy trade, and also suggested that the club might wait for a midseason deal to allow Lucroy to rebuild some value after an injury-plagued and subpar 2015 campaign.

Here’s some more from the NL Central…

  • Also from Olney’s post, he reports that the Pirates are in “informal discussions” with Ben Cherington about a possible front office job.  Since stepping down as Boston’s general manager last summer, Cherington reportedly declined opportunities to interview for both the Mariners and Phillies GM jobs out of a desire to take some time away from the game.  It’s fair to speculate that a position working under his friend Neal Huntington could be more attractive to Cherington than a return to the full-time grind of a GM position.
  • Could the Cubs shop Kyle Schwarber this offseason?  Grantland’s Ben Lindbergh explores the possibility, noting that the defensively-challenged Schwarber would be a good fit as an American League DH.  The Rays and Indians are two clubs with a hole at DH and the young arms to offer the Cubs, who are openly looking to add pitching.  While scouts are mixed at best about Schwarber’s ability to play catcher or left field over the long term, a trade may be unlikely given Schwarber’s already-impressive hitting potential.  “He’s not attainable now,” one AL scout tells Lindbergh.  “He still has a chance to hit .285 with 40 bombs. They’d be insane to trade that.”  I tend to agree with the AL scout; Chicago would need a massive return to even consider moving Schwarber’s bat.
  • Jason McLeod, Cubs senior VP of player development and amateur scouting, spoke to Fangraphs’ David Laurila about a couple of Cardinals players who were well-liked by the Cubs and Red Sox when McLeod was running the drafts for those clubs in 2012 and 2008, respectively.  “A lot of the teams that passed up on Michael Wacha, us included, probably kicked themselves,” McLeod said.  St. Louis took Wacha with the 19th overall pick of the first round, while the Cubs (picking sixth) instead chose Albert Almora, who is a well-regarded 21-year-old prospect but has yet to play beyond the Double-A level.  For Boston in 2008, Lance Lynn was “a guy we liked quite a bit; he was high up on our board.”  The Sox instead took Casey Kelly with the 30th overall pick, leaving Lynn to be drafted by the Cards 39th overall.
  • Also from Laurila’s piece, he cites the Reds’ trade of Mat Latos to the Marlins for Anthony DeSclafani (and minor league Chad Wallach) as perhaps “the best under-the-radar trade of last offseason.”  DeSclafani posted a 4.05 ERA, 2.75 K/BB rate and 7.4 K/9 over 184 2/3 innings in his rookie season, and looks to have solidly earned himself a spot in Cincinnati rotation.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees could have a bit of room to add another big contract this winter, though a greater need may be finding young depth to bolster its veteran core.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

In many ways, 2015 was a successful year for the Yankees.  They returned to the postseason (albeit for just one game, losing to the Astros in a wild card matchup), got some solid contributions from building-block younger players and received several bounce-back seasons from their expensive veterans.  While anything short of a World Series championship is generally considered a disappointment in New York, the Yankees at least made some positive strides.

The trick for GM Brian Cashman, however, is figuring out how exactly to add major upgrades to a roster that has over $180MM committed to just 10 players.  There’s a light at the end of the guaranteed-salary since at least $37.5MM (Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran) will be freed up after 2016, plus Alex Rodriguez and C.C. Sabathia (a combined $45MM) will be off the books after 2017.  The Yankees don’t seem likely to go on another free agent spending spree, but with some financial relief in sight, it doesn’t seem out of the question for them to make one or two major free agent signings on backloaded contracts.  It may make more sense for New York to strike in free agency now rather than next winter, when the projected open market doesn’t look nearly as deep in talent, particularly in frontline pitching.

Starting pitching indeed stands out as an area of focus, and free agent righty Jeff Samardzija has already been cited as a Yankee target this offseason.  Samardzija would cost less than pursuing one of the top-tier arms in this winter’s free agent pitching market, though the lower price tag is due to Samardzija’s lackluster 2015 season.  He posted a 4.96 ERA over 214 innings with the White Sox, and while ERA predictors were a bit more kind to his performance (Chicago’s bad defense certainly played a role), Samardzija also suffered drops in his strikeout and grounder rates.  It should be noted, though, that the Yankees weren’t interested in signing free agents that required draft pick forfeiture, and Samardzija reportedly will receive and reject a $15.8MM qualifying offer from the White Sox.

Acquiring a new starter would require the Yankees to bump a current rotation member.  The 2016 rotation projects as Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Pineda and Sabathia, with Ivan Nova and Adam Warren on hand as depth.  Sabathia recently entered an alcohol rehabilitation program, adding a far more pressing personal concern to his 2016 status beyond just his knee injuries and declining performance.  Sabathia has only made one relief appearance in his 15-year career (during the 2011 playoffs) and he still ate 167 1/3 innings last season, yet as strange as it would be to see him coming out of the bullpen, he’s the most logical candidate to leave the rotation.  Tanaka and Severino obviously aren’t going anywhere, and trading promising young starters like Eovaldi and Pineda (whose ERA indicators show he drastically outperformed his 4.37 ERA) would be an odd move for a club that claims to want to get younger.

It’s hard to see where a major new salary could be fit around the diamond since that’s where most of the Yankees’ payroll commitments can be found.  Aside from shortstop Didi Gregorius and the unsettled second base situation, every other position is filled by a veteran with an eight-figure salary, the youngest of whom (Chase Headley) is entering his age-32 season.  The Yankees enjoyed several bounce-back seasons from many of these older stars in 2015 but even those came with some caveats; Teixeira missed the last six weeks with a shin fracture and Rodriguez hit only .191/.300/.377 in 213 PA after Aug. 1.

Combine those with down years from Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, and a team-wide lackluster defense (24th in team UZR/150, 27th in team Defensive Runs Saved), and you have to question if the Yankees can realistically expect to catch lightning in a bottle again and contend with this aging lineup.  Manager Joe Girardi was already pretty liberal with off-days for many of his veterans last year, and the same can probably be expected in 2016 now that the manager has a few more young reinforcements to be called upon.

Greg Bird and John Ryan Murphy lead the way in this regard, as the rookie first baseman and third-year backup catcher both had strong seasons, particularly Bird stepping in to deliver big numbers after Teixeira was lost to the DL.  There has been some speculation that Bird could be tried out at third base or right field so he could get regular time spelling Teixeira, Headley and Beltran, though it remains to be see how Bird could adjust to playing two new positions for the first time in his pro career.  Murphy could also see some time at first base, though it’s probably more likely that he could get more time behind the plate spelling Brian McCann (who would either rest on those days or play first himself).  More at-bats for Murphy would also get a right-handed bat into the lineup on a more regular basis, which would help a Yankees offense that struggled badly against southpaws.

Chris Young was a valuable weapon against left-handed pitching last season, posting a .972 OPS in 175 PA against southpaws en route to an overall very solid .252/.320/.453 slash line and 14 homers in 356 PA.  Young and his new representation will be looking for a multi-year contract and a job that offers more regular playing time, though I’d expect the Yankees will explore keeping a lefty-masher who can play both corner outfield spots and handle the occasional fill-in game or two in center.  If Young signs elsewhere, the Bombers will be in the market for another versatile backup outfielder.

Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela were the two young second base candidates rumored to be in for long looks in 2015, though Stephen Drew ended up seeing most of the at-bats at the keystone.  It’s unlikely that Drew returns in the wake of his rough season, so the Yankees could go with a platoon of left-handed hitting Dustin Ackley and either Refsnyder or Pirela (both righty batters) at second next season.  Ideally, the Yankees would probably prefer to have Refsnyder or Pirela win the job outright in Spring Training as Ackley has only played in 10 games at second over the last two years.

Could New York look for a more permanent answer at second base?  Names like Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy and Ben Zobrist stand out as the most promising options on the free agent market.  Murphy and Zobrist, in particular, could fill depth needs as Murphy can also play third and Zobrist can play short and left.  Neither are defensive standouts, though, as Zobrist’s usually-solid defensive metrics took a plunge in 2015; signing Zobrist in particular would mean the Yankees would commit another big contract to another mid-30’s player.

Signing an everyday second baseman would allow the Yankees to package Refsnyder as part of a trade, as he could be a young talent the club would be willing to part with if rumors of attitude issues are true (Cashman has denied these rumors, for the record).  The Yankees have become much more wary about trading top prospects for established stars over the last few years, so you’re more apt to see the likes of Aaron Judge, Eric Jagielo or Jacob Lindgren in the pinstripes next season than another Major League uniform.

The bullpen was rebuilt last winter with good results, as Yankees relievers led the league in K/9 (10.11) and ranked third in fWAR (5.2).  Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances and Justin Wilson should again be a very tough late-game trio for opponents to overcome, and if another starter is acquired, adding Warren or Nova as a full-time reliever would further strengthen the pen.  Warren and Nova could also be trade chips; Nova’s stock isn’t high after a tough 2015 campaign, but it was his first year back from Tommy John surgery.

While the relief corps was already a strength, the Yankees also explored adding elite bullpen arms like Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman at the trade deadline.  If the Yankees make another attempt at creating a super-bullpen, perhaps they could offer Major League pieces rather than prospects.  This is entirely speculation on my part, but maybe the Padres be interested in adding a needed left-handed bat and outfield defense in the form of Gardner (plus a prospect or two) for Kimbrel.

Since Ellsbury may be untradeable at this point due to his big contract and disappointing season, moving Gardner or Beltran would open up a corner outfield spot.  This could open the door for a big signing, and Mike Axisa of the River Ave. Blues blog recently opined that Jason Heyward would be an ideal fit, even without the Yankees making room by trading someone else.  Heyward would play every day and then Ellsbury, Gardner and Beltran would be rotated (or, Beltran would DH on days that A-Rod sits), which would be a uniquely big-market way of solving a fourth outfielder problem if Young doesn’t re-sign.  The juggling of playing time would only be an issue for 2016 since Beltran’s contract is up next winter, or it might not end up being an issue at all if someone gets injured, as Axisa notes.

Heyward is only 26, is one of the game’s elite defensive outfielders, and he’ll command the kind of massive long-term contract that only the Yankees and a handful of other big-market teams can afford.  He’s also a player that New York targeted last offseason in trade talks when Heyward was still with the Braves, so the interest is there.  The Yankees, as usual, will be linked in rumors to just about every notable free agent name, though in Heyward’s case, there could be some legitimate substance to the whispers.  Adding Heyward would bring both youth and elite talent to the Bombers in one fell swoop.

On the surface, Cashman doesn’t appear to have a ton of maneuverability given that his club is still a year away from finally starting to shed some of its major salary commitments.  Last winter, however, Cashman was very active on the trade market and came away with such important pieces as Gregorius, Eovaldi and Wilson.  If he can expand on that creativity and manage to unload one of his big contracts, it could unlock several new offseason possibilities.

Extension Candidate: Shelby Miller

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Signing young players to extensions has been the backbone of John Hart’s long career as a baseball executive.  Since taking over the Braves last year, Hart has primarily focused on acquiring new young talent for the rebuilding club rather than locking up existing players. Now that some new pieces are in place, though, Hart and GM John Coppolella will surely look into extending some players that project to be part of the next Braves winning team.

Shelby Miller may well be at the front of that list, as the right-hander is coming off a very solid (albeit unusual) 2015 season.  Miller posted a 3.02 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 2.34 K/BB rate in his first year in Atlanta, tossing a career-high 205 1/3 innings and reaching his first All-Star team.  Unfortunately for Miller, these numbers didn’t translate into many wins since he received a near-record low amount of run support (2.64 runs per game) from the anemic Braves offense.  This lack of support culminated in an astounding 24-start winless stretch that saw Miller go 0-16 despite a solid 3.83 ERA over that stretch.

While “baseball card stats” are a big part of the arbitration process, Miller’s rough 6-17 record shouldn’t hurt him too much as he enters his first year of eligibility this offseason.  MLB Trade Rumors projects Miller will earn a healthy $4.9MM salary in 2016, and the Braves could look to get some cost certainty over Miller’s two arb years and possibly even a free agent year or two.

"<strongA note about that $4.9MM figure: it would actually set a new record for a starting pitcher in his first year of arbitration eligibility, topping Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM figure from 2006.  Last year, Matt Swartz wrote about how that $4.35MM record has somewhat unexpectedly stood the test of time, though MLBTR’s projections have three pitchers beating the mark this winter — Matt Harvey at $4.7MM, Miller at $4.9MM and Dallas Keuchel at $6.4MM.

As we see from the MLBTR Extension Tracker, four starters with 3+ years of service time have signed extensions since the end of the 2012 season.  (I feel comfortable cutting it off there since Kyle Kendrick and Clayton Kershaw aren’t ideal comparables as, respectively, a Super Two player and a reigning Cy Young Award winner.)  Let’s see how Miller compares to these four pitchers using extension size, their MLBTR arbitration projection, notable stats and ERA predictors…

Mat Latos:  Two years/$11.5MM before age-25 season, $4.6MM arbitration projection.  639 IP, 3.41 ERA, 8.42 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 43.7% ground ball rate, 11.5 fWAR (3.47 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 3.59 SIERA)

Wade Miley: Three years/$19.25MM (with $12MM option for 2018) before age-28 season, $4.3MM projection.  638 2/3 IP, 3.79 ERA, 7.03 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 48.6% ground ball rate, 7.4 fWAR (3.80 FIP, 3.72 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA)

Lance Lynn: Three years/$22MM before age-28 season, $5.4MM projection but it was an unusual situation, as noted earlier in Matt Swartz’s piece.  616 IP, 3.46 ERA, 8.75 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 44.4% ground ball rate, 10.5 fWAR (3.34 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.65 SIERA)

Miller: Heading into age-25 season, $4.9MM projection.  575 1/3 IP, 3.22 ERA, 7.56 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 42.3% ground ball rate, 6.9 fWAR (3.82 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 4.16 SIERA)

Jhoulys Chacin: Two years/$6.5MM before age-25 season, $1.6MM projection.  411 1/3 IP, 3.68 ERA, 7.57 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 49.7% ground ball rate, 5.0 fWAR (4.17 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA)

Miller just turned 25 last week, putting him in the Latos/Chacin age bracket.  Miller is clearly a step behind Latos and Lynn WAR-wise (they have an edge in strikeouts and innings) and you can make a case that Miley was also a better pitcher than Miller at this stage of both pitchers’ careers.

Since Miller is three years younger than Lynn and Miley were at the time of their extensions, however, his ultimate price tag is going to be bigger.  If he keeps up his current form through his arbitration years, hitting the open market as a durable and productive 28-year-old arm could mean something in the range of five (or even six) years in the $85MM range.

With this in mind, would Miller even be interested in an extension?  He already banked one nice payday when he signed for a $2.875MM bonus with the Cardinals after being drafted in 2009, and he’ll earn something in that $4.9MM range next year.  Miller is on pace to get healthy raises in his final two arbitration years anyway, so he could very well decide to bet on himself with an eye towards free agency and avoid a long-term commitment.  If the CAA client betters his current form and makes the leap from very good pitcher to full-blown ace, Miller would be costing himself some money by locking himself into an extension now.

The Braves would have to make it worth Miller’s while, therefore, for him to sign away one or two of his free agent years.  A straight club option for 2019 likely wouldn’t be enough unless it had an easily-reachable vesting option.  Corey Kluber’s extension with the Indians could be a model in this regard.  The two club option years that cover what would’ve been Kluber’s first two free agent seasons can rise in value by up to $4MM based on performance escalators, turning a potential extra $27.5MM for Kluber into as much as $35.5MM over those two seasons.

Lynn’s extension paid him $7MM in 2015 and he’s owed $7.5MM in each of the next two years, while Miley’s deal escalated from $4MM last season to $6MM in 2016 and $8.75MM in 2017.  If we mark Miller for $4.9MM this season, it would make sense for Atlanta to boost his salary in 2016-17 once Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn are (in all likelihood) fully off the books.  So at something like $4.9MM in 2016, $7.4MM in 2017 and $9.5MM in 2018, that gets Miler to $21.8MM over three years.  If there’s a 2019 club option, I would guess it would have to be in the $13MM range and, like Kluber’s contract, subject to rise via escalator bonuses.

Unlike Keuchel and Harvey (his fellow would-be arbitration record-breakers), Miller hasn’t quite shown that he’s a frontline ace.  Don’t forget, however, that Miller is just a few years removed from being a consensus top-10 prospect, so it’s very possible that his best is yet to come.  Even at Miller’s current level of production, a four-year deal that could max out in the $38-$39MM ballpark isn’t a bad price to pay for a 25-year-old who’s averaged 187 innings a year since 2013.  It could end up being yet another canny John Hart extension if and when the Braves begin to turn things around.

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports Images

Quick Hits: Harvey, Baker, Pohlad, Cardinals

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Both the Royals and Mets hold a 2-0 lead in their respective League Championship Series following the Mets’ 4-1 win over the Cubs in Game 2 of the NLCS tonight.  Five Mets pitchers (including Noah Syndergaard, who threw 5 2/3 innings) held Chicago to five hits in the game while Jake Arrieta struggled, allowing four runs in just five innings of work.  The NLCS has an off-day Monday as the scene shifts to Wrigley Field, while the Blue Jays will try to get on the board in Game 3 of the ALCS at Rogers Centre.  Some news from around baseball…

  • Matt Harvey’s excellent start in Game 1 of the NLCS should end any trade speculation surrounding the ace righty, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald writes.  The innings-limit controversy between Harvey, Scott Boras and the Mets in September led to rumors that the Mets could look to part ways with Harvey this winter, though his postseason performance has surely gone a long way to erasing any hard feelings.
  • Dusty Baker spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Barry M. Bloom) about his desire to return to a dugout.  Baker said his recent interview with the Nationals “was good” and apparently he cleared up some misconceptions the Nats might’ve had about him.  “People think they know you through word of mouth, but it’s somebody else’s opinion. I mean, they don’t really know you until you talk to somebody. Then, it’s like, ’Wow, I didn’t know you were like that,’ ” Baker said.  It doesn’t look like the Padres have an interest in Baker as their next manager, however, as he said he contacted San Diego “and they said, ’Thanks for the interest.’ That was the extent of it.”
  • Twins owner Jim Pohlad discusses several topics in an interview with LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, including Torii Hunter’s future, Paul Molitor’s rookie season as manager and how the club is responding to their return to respectability.  In regards to payroll, Pohlad said that “we’re willing to do whatever it takes,” though there are apparently some limits.  “I will tell you that I’m not a huge fan of long-term contracts. It’s having to commit for so many years and there’s really only downside to the club. There’s hardly any instances where it has been upside, across baseball,” Pohlad said.
  • That comment from Pohlad is parsed by 1500 ESPN’s Derek Wetmore, who notes that several of the Twins’ recent long-term deals aren’t projecting to end well.  Still, Wetmore doesn’t think Pohlad is absolutely against long-term deals as a rule, and perhaps the owner could be more interested in contracts for fewer years but with a higher annual average value.
  • While the Cardinals haven’t missed a beat in the standings, their offense has been in slow decline for a few seasons, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  The Cards’ lineup has been propped up by statistical anomalies (an incredible average with runners in scoring position in 2013, for instance) and their run differential has been inflated by their great pitching and defense.  Power has been a particular issue over the last two seasons, though it’s possible more pop could come from within once youngsters Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk grow more accustomed to the majors.

AL East Notes: Sox, Young, Hunter, O’s, Pentland

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Dave Dombrowski traded several prospects for established stars when he was running the Tigers, but will he do the same in Boston?  One rival executive believes so, telling Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald (Twitter link) that “Dave is going to make some moves. He’ll be busy.”  The Red Sox have one of baseball’s most well-regarded minor league systems, so if Dombrowski and GM Mike Hazen did decide to shift some prospects, there would be no shortage of interest from around the league.  Here’s the latest AL East news…

  • Right-hander Chris Young could be an Orioles target this winter, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  Manager Buck Showalter likes Young, w free agent who has a 3.40 ERA over 288 1/3 innings with the Mariners and Royals over the last two seasons.  Advanced metrics (4.80 FIP, 5.25 xFIP, 5.20 SIERA) haven’t favored Young’s low-strikeout, flyball-inducing numbers, however, and it’s possible he might not be as effective pitching in a more hitter-friendly ballpark like Camden Yards.
  • Also from Kubatko, free agent Tommy Hunter is interested in returning to the Orioles and Kubatko figures the club “will at least discuss” bringing the right-hander back.  Baltimore, however, may not want to spend too much on a reliever who isn’t a closer or setup man, Kubatko warns.  Hunter was dealt to the Cubs in a trade deadline swap for Junior Lake in July.
  • The Yankees will not be bringing hitting coach Jeff Pentland or bullpen coach Gary Tuck back in 2016, George A. King III of the New York Post reports.  Pentland — also a former hitting coach for the Marlins, Cubs, Royals, Mariners and Dodgers — only served on New York’s staff for the 2015 campaign.  Assistant hitting coach Alan Cockrell, minor league coaches James Rowsen and Marcus Thames, and former slugger Raul Ibanez are all cited as King as possible candidates to replace Pentland.  For the bullpen coach job, King suggests that former Yankees bullpen coach Mike Harkey (recently fired as the Diamondbacks pitching coach) could return.
  • For more division news, MLBTR’s Zach Links compiled another edition of AL East Notes earlier today.

Latest On Daniel Murphy, Mets

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While Daniel Murphy has been a one-man wrecking crew for the Mets this postseason, two team sources tell Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News that the club still isn’t planning to bring the second baseman back in 2016.  “He’s been great, really great, but it changes nothing,” one of the sources said.

It has been assumed for months that the Mets would install Dilson Herrera or Wilmer Flores at second base next season, with Murphy signing elsewhere as a free agent due to his ever-growing price tag.  “If they are keeping their payroll in the same neighborhood, they can’t afford to keep him,” one rival GM said. “He’s making $8 million now, will probably get a bump on that and he’s going to want some years….They already have all that money invested in Juan Lagares ($22.5 million) and Michael Cuddyer ($10 million) who are both back-ups now.  You can’t keep your payroll under control like that.”

Such news won’t be welcome to Mets fans, who have been annoyed by the team’s lack of spending for years as the club has rebuilt around young talent (or, according to some critics, been unable to spend due to the Wilpon family’s financial losses in the Bernie Madoff scandal).  There has even been speculation that the Mets may not issue a qualifying offer to Murphy, as the team is reportedly willing to let Murphy leave without getting a draft pick in return rather than risk him accepting the one-year, $15.8MM contract.  I polled MLBTR readers on the subject last week and only 27.94% of voters felt the Mets shouldn’t make Murphy a qualifying offer.

Murphy hit .281/.322/.449 with 14 homers in 538 PA in 2015 and has a .291/.331/.421 slash line over the last five seasons.  It was already unlikely that he would accept a QO given the lack of top-flight infielders on the free agent market, and it’s probably totally out of the question now given his playoff heroics.  Murphy was hitting .320/.320/.840 with four homers in 25 PA during this postseason heading into tonight’s Game 2 of the NLCS, and in his first at-bat tonight, he added to his hot streak with a two-run homer off of Jake Arrieta.  In a sign of just how feared Murphy has become this October, he was intentionally walked in his second at-bat to get to Yoenis Cespedes.

While it’s a small sample size, Joel Sherman of the New York Post notes that Murphy’s playoff run is impressing observers.  One scout says that Murphy “has been on everything, pulled for power more than I can ever remember and made me start to think if you put him in the right stadium would some of all those doubles he hits every year turn into 20-plus homers annually?”

Sherman hears from various executives and agents that Murphy may now be looking at a deal in the neighborhood of the four-year, $52MM contract Chase Headley signed with the Yankees last season, and perhaps more since Murphy has more positional versatility than Headley and is one of the league’s best contact hitters.  (Speaking of Headley, Sherman adds that the Padres offered Luke Gregerson to the Mets during the 2013-14 offseason for Murphy, who they saw as a possible Headley replacement.)  Those executives also made guesses as to where Murphy could sign this winter, with the Astros, Angels and Dodgers coming up as the most-cited options.

Korean Righty Seung-Hwan Oh Interested In Move To MLB

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Korean relief ace Seung-Hwan Oh has told his agents to explore a new contract with a Major League Baseball club, according to a report from Kyung-Don Joo and Yeong-Seok Lee report of the Korea JoongAng Daily.  Oh’s contract with NPB’s Hanshin Tigers is up, and thus he is a complete free agent who isn’t subject to the posting system.

“We first needed to talk with Hanshin, but our focus is on playing in the United States,” said Dong-Wook Kim, head of the Sports Intelligence agency that represents Oh.  Some MLB teams have already been in contact about Oh’s services, though Kim said that “what’s important is whether the club can offer the environment where Oh can show his best ability.”

Oh, 33, has been one of the top closers in both the Korea Baseball Organization (nine seasons with Samsung Lions) and Nippon Professional Baseball (two seasons with Hanshin) during his 11-year career.  He has posted a sparkling 1.81 ERA, 10.7 K/9 and 5.18 K/BB rate over 646 1/3 career innings.  Oh has recorded 357 saves in his career, earning him the equally-awesome nicknames of “Stone Buddha” and “Final Boss.”  Oh pitched for South Korea in the 2006 and 2009 World Baseball Classics, earning a bronze and silver medal, respectively.

According to a two-year-old profile on the Global Sporting Integration homepage, Oh’s top pitch is the “stone fastball,” a rising four-seamer that can go as high as 97mph but is usually in the 92-94mph range.  Oh also possesses a slider (thrown anywhere between 80-89mph) and slow curveball (between 70-79mph).  The 5’10”, 202-pounder will turn 34 years old in July.

This isn’t the first time Oh has been linked to MLB, as there were rumors about a possible move to North America in each of the last two offseasons, though he wasn’t posted.  The Yankees, Pirates, Orioles and Mariners are among the teams known to have at least scouted Oh over the last two years.  While it’s probably unrealistic that Oh would be immediately handed a ninth-inning job his unfamiliarity with MLB, teams with unsettled closer situations could certainly see him as a candidate to win the job in Spring Training or later during the 2016 season.  Oh’s market will be helped by the lack of established closers available in free agency this winter.

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