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Yankees Notes: Pitching Staff, Rizzo, Verdugo

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The Yankees now know they’ll be taking on the Guardians in the ALCS when it begins on Monday, and manager Aaron Boone spoke to reporters (including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com) about the club’s roster plans for the coming series. Of note, Boone indicated that after bringing just 11 pitchers to the ALDS they’ll be expanding their pitching staff headed into the seven-game set, though it’s not yet clear whether they’ll use the maximum 13 pitchers allowed or settle for 12 in order to maintain a more flexible bench.

Regardless of how many pitchers end up coming, the Yankees will need to utilize four rotation arms in the upcoming seven-game series after turning to only Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt in the best-of-five ALDS. Per Hoch, Boone indicated that right-hander Luis Gil will be joining the club’s rotation for the ALCS, though neither he nor Gerrit Cole will start Game 1 with Cole scheduled for a start in Game 2 and Gil expected to start later in the series. That would seemingly leave either Rodon or Schmidt lined up to start the first game of the ALCS.

Schmidt has both the stronger regular season and postseason numbers of the pair, having posted a 2.85 ERA in 16 regular season starts and thrown 4 2/3 innings of two-run ball against the Royals during the ALDS. With that said, Rodon did strike out seven batters in his 3 2/3 innings of work during the ALDS (albeit with four earned runs on his ledger) and would be start Game 1 on an additional day of rest as compared to Schmidt. Veteran righty Marcus Stroman is also theoretically available to start if needed but seems likely to be used as a starter only in an emergency after being moved to the bullpen late in the regular season and being left off the ALDS roster entirely. Stroman could make the ALCS roster as a multi-inning reliever or emergency starter, though it’s also possible the club could want to add another short relief arm such as Mark Leiter Jr. to their bullpen mix headed into the series.

As the Yankees ponder how many pitchers to roster for the ALCS, one potential factor in that decision could be how many roster spots they need to allocate to first base. Veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo was absent from the ALDS roster after suffering two broken fingers in the final days of the regular season. In his stead, the Yankees relied on a combination of Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti at first base when facing Kansas City. The pair went a combined 3-for-12 with a double, four walks and four strikeouts during the series and could be turned to once again at first depending on Rizzo’s status.

Rookie Ben Rice was also on the ALDS roster as a first base option but ultimately did not make it into a game, making him a logical cut from the ALCS roster either for the return of Rizzo or the addition of another pitcher. Hoch relays that Boone told reporters the veteran first baseman was making “some progress” as he looks to return in time for the ALCS, though Boone didn’t get into specifics about Rizzo’s status and noted that a final decision about his availability likely would not be made until the club finalizes its roster plans on Monday.

One position that seems fairly set in stone for the Bronx headed into next week’s series, however, is left field. After a lackluster regular season that saw the Yankees briefly turn to top prospect Jasson Dominguez over him down the stretch, Verdugo received the nod in left field headed into the playoffs. While Verdugo went just three-for-14 in the ALDS this year, he did deliver a clutch performance in Game 1 where he notched two hits, knocked in the go-ahead run and made an impressive defensive play in the outfield to rob Royals second baseman Michael Massey of a hit.

Verdugo’s Game 1 heroics were evidently enough to earn him a starting nod in the left field headed into the ALCS, as Boone indicated (as relayed by Hoch) that the outfielder is “likely” to remain the club’s starter in left for their coming series against Cleveland. Dominguez, Trent Grisham, and Duke Ellis were other outfielders included on the club’s ALDS roster, Ellis’s brief cameo a pinch runner in Game 5 was the only appearance any of the three made during the series. If the Yankees ultimately decide to go to 13 pitchers on the roster, cutting one of those outfield options could be another way to free up space for more pitching.

Roberts: Tony Gonsolin “In The Mix” For Dodgers’ NLCS Roster

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As the Dodgers plan out their NLCS roster ahead of the first game of the series tomorrow, manager Dave Roberts spoke to reporters about the club’s plans for the upcoming best-of-seven set. Among the options the club is considering for the roster, according to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, is right-hander Tony Gonsolin.

Gonsolin, who has spent the entire 2024 season to this point rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, began a rehab assignment in September and built up to 50 pitches in those games but was more or less ruled out for the postseason by Roberts two weeks ago, when he indicated that “something really unforeseen” would need to happen in order for Gonsolin to pitch in the playoffs. Evidently, the swath of injuries to the club’s pitching staff that have occurred since then constitute a sufficiently unforeseen circumstance that the Dodgers are once again considering the right-hander for a role in the postseason rotation.

Roberts (as relayed by Ardaya) ruled out both Joe Kelly and Brusdar Graterol for the NLCS this evening when discussing the club’s options, and right-hander Michael Grove is ineligible to return before the World Series after being removed from the club’s NLDS roster due to injury. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez was among those to relay that Roberts added lefty Alex Vesia to the growing list of hurlers expected to be unavailable for the NLCS, as he’s dealing with an intercostal injury that Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times notes left Roberts to express optimism Vesia may be able to return for the World Series if the club advances.

Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Ryan Brasier, Anthony Banda, Daniel Hudson, Ben Casparius, Edgardo Henriquez, and Landon Knack all were on the club’s NLDS roster and figure to once again be available for the club’s upcoming series against the Mets, and with each of Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto expected to reprise their roles in the club’s rotation that leaves just one open spot to be filled by either Gonsolin or Brent Honeywell Jr. though it’s certainly feasible that Henriquez or Casparius could also be left off the roster to accommodate the addition of both arms.

That may be a wise decision for the club at this point, as Roberts noted (as relayed by Jack Harris of the L.A. Times) that Yamamoto will not be pulled off his current schedule of five days off between starts. Those required days off between starts would leave Yamamoto able to start just one game in this series, meaning that the club will have to turn to its relievers to handle as many as two games this series assuming that Flaherty and Buehler make two starts each. The addition of multi-inning arms like Gonsolin and Honeywell, then, could provide the club with some much-needed length out of the bullpen that they currently only stand to get out of Knack.

In 37 2/3 innings of work spread between 20 appearances with the Dodgers and Pirates this year, Honeywell has pitched to an excellent 2.63 ERA but has done so with lackluster peripherals, including a 12.1% strikeout rate and a 4.28 FIP. Gonsolin, meanwhile, hasn’t pitched in the majors since the middle of the 2023 campaign but sports a career 3.19 ERA and 3.99 FIP 79 appearances (including 71 starts) in the majors since he made his debut back in 2019. The righty’s postseason resume is lackluster, however, as he’s surrendered a 9.20 ERA in 14 2/3 frames during the playoffs throughout his career.

Padres, Jackson Merrill Reportedly Discussed Pre-Debut Extension

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The Padres saw their season come to an end last night at the hands of their division rivals in Los Angeles, but despite that disappointing end the 2024 campaign was nonetheless littered with plenty of bright spots for fans in San Diego. Perhaps the most significant among those was the emergence of Jackson Merrill, who entered Spring Training as a shortstop prospect with just 46 games at the Double-A level under his belt and turned a surprise Opening Day assignment in center field into a phenomenal rookie season.

Before that sensational season came together, however, it seems the Padres were already hoping to lock in the youngster’s services for the long haul. A report from The Athletic’s Dennis Lin earlier today revealed that San Diego brass discussed the possibility of an extension with Merrill last offseason, before the youngster had even made his MLB debut. The sides, of course, did not wind up coming together on a deal. That didn’t stop the Padres from installing Merrill in center field to kick off the season, however, and Merrill rewarded his club’s confidence in him with a season that saw him appear in 156 games while slashing .292/.326/.500 with 24 homers, 16 steals in 19 attempts, and a 130 wRC+.

Merrill’s debut season, during which he was just 21 years old, was the sort of campaign that inspires confidence in a young players ability to produce at the big league level. After all, Merrill showed off an impressive and varied profile that should help him continue to impact the Padres in all sorts of ways going forward. The youngster not only flashed impressive power with a .208 ISO that was second to only Aaron Judge among qualified center fielders this year, but he also struck out at an excellent 17% clip that was second to only Cody Bellinger by that same metric. And while his defense didn’t receive the universal praise lauded on players like Brenton Doyle and Daulton Varsho, Merrill’s +12 Outs Above Average at the position put him in the 97th percentile among big leaguers and made him the seventh most valuable defensive center fielder in the sport by the metric.

That combination of power, contact, and defense at a valuable up-the-middle position figures to leave Merrill as a wildly attractive extension candidate, particularly given that he’s currently scheduled to reach free agency after his age-26 campaign. With that being said, the price of extending a youngster of Merrill’s talent is sure to have gone up for the Padres relative to last winter now that he’s proven he can handle big league pitching. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker showcases how lucrative even one dominant season in the big leagues can be, as both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Julio Rodriguez landed nine-figure extensions in the final months of their respective Rookie of the Year campaigns.

While the presence of budding ace Paul Skenes could complicate Merrill’s own pursuit of that award, his 5.3 fWAR in his rookie season falls in the middle of Acuna’s 4.4 figure and Rodriguez’s 5.8, though it’s worth noting that Acuna was a year younger than either Rodriguez or Merrill during his rookie season. Given his similarity to those youngsters, it seems reasonable to expect that Merrill would garner a guarantee well above the $100MM Acuna landed even if Rodriguez’s convoluted $210MM guarantee is not exactly the simplest point of comparison.

For San Diego’s part, they’ve certainly shown a willingness to spend heavily on extensions for young players in the past. The most obvious example of this is the $340MM deal the club made with Fernando Tatis Jr. prior to his third season with the club, though Jake Cronenworth’s seven-year extension signed just before the start of the 2023 season is another noteworthy example of the club committing to a long-term extension for a player with several years of team control remaining. Of course, both of those deals came together under the ownership of the late Peter Seidler, and the Padres began to scale back their payroll last year following his passing and Eric Kutsenda’s ascent to the role of interim control person.

Extending Merrill could also have a significant impact on the club’s luxury tax payroll going forward. Since the luxury tax is calculated based on average annual value, back-loaded extensions such as the one signed by Tatis early in his career or a hypothetical Merrill extension often have a far more significant impact on a club’s luxury tax positioning than they do on the club’s actual payroll in the early years of the deal. That could prove to be an obstacle for the Padres, who per RosterResource currently have a guaranteed payroll of just over $231MM for 2025 before factoring in offseason additions of arbitration-level contracts for players like Luis Arraez and Michael King.

The Opener: NLDS, ALDS, NLCS

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With two of the four teams headed to the LCS already decided, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on headed into the weekend:

1. NLDS Game 5:

Baseball fans get to enjoy three games from three different series this weekend, starting with a winner-take-all rubber match between the Dodgers and Padres at Dodger Stadium at 5:08pm local time this evening. In the first instance of a pitching match-up featuring two Japanese-born pitchers in MLB playoff history, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.00 ERA in 18 starts) will take the ball for the Dodgers in Game 5 opposite Padres veteran Yu Darvish (3.31 ERA in 16 starts). Yamamoto pitched for the Dodgers in Game 1 but was torched for five runs in three innings of work amid whispers that the star hurler was tipping his pitches. Meanwhile, Darvish hurled seven innings of one-run ball in his start against the Dodgers earlier in this series.

2. ALDS Game 5:

Tomorrow, another set of division rivals will prepare for a winner-take-all Game 5 when the Tigers and Guardians head back to Cleveland for a game scheduled at 8:08pm local time tomorrow evening. Tigers ace Tarik Skubal (2.39 ERA) will be back on the mound for the Guardians after previously striking out 14 across 13 scoreless frames this postseason between dominant starts against the Astros and Guardians. The Guardians have not announced their starter as they try to hand Skubal the first loss of his postseason career, though injuries to the Detroit lineup could help their own pitching staff keep pace with the dominant lefty.

Tigers slugger Kerry Carpenter departed last night’s game with an apparent hamstring injury, and manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Evan Woodbery of MLive) that the club will need to get Carpenter looked at by team doctors before determining his availability for Game 5. Meanwhile, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reported last night that catcher Jake Rogers also underwent imaging after having his wrist and forearm wrapped in the aftermath of Game 4, though specifics of the backstop’s potential injury aren’t known. With two key pieces of the club’s starting lineup potentially unavailable headed into Game 5, the Tigers could need to rely on backup catcher Dillon Dingler and Carpenter’s platoon partner Justyn-Henry Malloy to take the club to the ALCS.

3. NLCS Game 1:

On Sunday, the winner of tonight’s game 5 will move on to face the Mets in Game 1 of the NLCS, which will take place at either Dodger Stadium or San Diego’s Petco Park at 5:15 local time that evening. With the club’s entire rotation set to be fully rested entering the series, the Mets appear likely to turn to either Luis Severino (3.91 ERA) or Sean Manaea (3.47 ERA) in Sunday’s game, while the Dodgers would likely turn to Jack Flaherty (3.17 ERA) should they advance. The Padres have less certainty in their rotation situation than the other remaining NL clubs after losing Joe Musgrove to Tommy John surgery earlier this postseason, but could start right-hander Michael King (2.95 ERA) on short rest or simply lean on their dominant bullpen in the first game of the seven game set.

The Opener: ALDS, Brewers, Dodgers

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As the Mets move on to the NLCS for the first time since 2015, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. ALDS Game 4:

The Royals and Guardians are facing elimination today as both sides of the ALDS move on to Game 4. In Kansas City, the club’s hopes rest on flipping the script in a Game 1 rematch: Michael Wacha (3.35 ERA) takes the mound for the Royals, and the Yankees will counter with Gerrit Cole (3.41 ERA in 17 starts). Game 1 eventually turned out in the Yankees’ favor, as Wacha surrendered three runs over four innings and struck out three while Cole surrendered the same number of runs over five innings and struck out four.

Meanwhile, the Guardians will send right-hander Tanner Bibee (3.47 ERA) to the mound opposite Detroit’s pitching staff, which has operated with all hands on deck in games where likely AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal isn’t on the mound. With his team’s season on the line, Bibee will hope to put up a similar or better performance to his outing in Game 1, where he struck out six Tigers in 4 2/3 scoreless frames before passing the torch to the club’s dominant bullpen in an eventual 7-0 shutout victory.

2. Brewers end-of-season presser:

As teams that made the postseason but have since been eliminated lick their wounds and look ahead to the coming offseason, part of the process is often a end-of-season press conference held by the club. The Brewers have scheduled their end-of-season press conference for 11am local time (h/t Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). The biggest question facing the Brewers this winter is how they’ll replace star shortstop Willy Adames, who is scheduled to hit free agency next month and figures to be out of the small-market club’s price range. Aside from Adames, the club will also see both Joe Ross and Frankie Montas head into free agency and could face questions regarding the future of closer Devin Williams has he enters his final season of team control. General manager Matt Arnold will tackle all that and more as he meets with the media this morning.

3. Dodgers facing questions ahead of Game 5:

Though the Phillies were sent home by the Mets in Game 4 of the NLDS last night, the Division Series still continues in California after the Dodgers forced a Game 5 against the Padres last night. The clubs are off today as they head back to Dodger Stadium, and the workout day figures to hold plenty of questions for L.A. as they figure out how best to line up their pitching staff and who is available from their positional corps ahead of a winner-take-all finale against their division rival.

As noted by Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post, Roberts told reporters last night that not only has he not decided between Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty for who will start opposite Yu Darvish in Game 5, but that he’s even considering using neither and opting for another bullpen game after L.A. relievers shut out the Padres in Game 4 last night. Meanwhile, the health status of both first baseman Freddie Freeman and shortstop Miguel Rojas remains up in the air. Freeman was a late scratch from yesterday’s lineup due to the sprained ankle that has plagued him throughout the series, while Rojas is known to have aggravated an adductor injury that has bothered him in recent weeks.

The Opener: NLDS, ALDS, Rojas

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Phillies, Dodgers facing elimination:

Both NLDS series are on the verge of ending in an upset after the Phillies and Dodgers each fell to their divisional rivals last night, leaving them just one loss from elimination. The Phillies will send lefty Ranger Suarez (3.46 ERA) to the mound in Queens with their season on the line, while the Mets will hope to knock their rival out of the race with veteran southpaw Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA).

Meanwhile, a tense Dodgers-Padres series continues tonight with right-hander Dylan Cease (3.47 ERA) on the mound for San Diego on just three days of rest. Cease started Game 1 for the Padres but was pulled after struggling through 3 1/3 innings where he surrendered five runs on six hits and a pair of walks with two strikeouts. The Dodgers have not yet announced who they’ll counter Cease with, but all hands will be on deck in a potential elimination game.

2. ALDS kicks back into gear:

After an off-day yesterday, both ALDS series — each tied at 1-1 — are back in action today. Guardians right-hander Alex Cobb will take the mound in Detroit after making just three starts this season due to hip, shoulder and finger injuries. The Tigers have not yet announced a starter for today’s game. Thus far, they’ve operated with ace Tarik Skubal as their only true starter as the rest of the pitching staff takes on more flexible roles as directed by manager A.J. Hinch in what the skipper has termed “pitching chaos.”

Later in the evening, the Yankees will send right-hander Clarke Schmidt (2.85 ERA in 16 starts) to the mound in Kansas City opposite veteran righty Seth Lugo (3.00 ERA in 33 starts). Schmidt’s only postseason experience is an 11.57 ERA in three appearances out of the bullpen back in 2022 while Lugo is coming off a solid performance against the Baltimore in the Wild Card Series, where he pitched 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball and struck out six Orioles against just one walk.

3. Rojas day-to-day headed into Game 3:

Turning back to the NLDS, the Dodgers may face elimination with their lineup at less than full strength. Veteran shortstop Miguel Rojas has been playing through an adductor injury this postseason, and he was forced to leave last night’s game in the third inning after aggravating the injury. The shortstop told reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) after the game that he’ll need to see how he feels today before he’ll know if he can play in what could be the final game of L.A.’s season. Rojas noted that in the past the next day is “more painful” than the initial problem when it comes to aggravating his adductor injury. In the event that Rojas isn’t available, the club seems likely to turn to Tommy Edman at shortstop, moving him in from center field where he would then be replaced by Andy Pages. First baseman Freddie Freeman has also been playing through an ankle injury that has left him visibly hobbled on the field, as seen last night when he limped to the dugout after hitting a single and being lifted for a pinch-runner.

The Opener: NLDS, Machado, MLBTR Chat

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With all four Division Series tied at two, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. NLDS Game 3 today:

Both sets of NLDS matchups will have their third games today. The Phillies and Mets are set to suit up at Citi Field in New York at 5:08pm local time. The Dodgers and Padres will take the field at Petco Park in San Diego at 6:08pm local time. In Queens, lefty Sean Manaea (3.47 ERA) will take the mound after a strong rebound campaign opposite right-hander Aaron Nola (3.57 ERA). The Dodgers will send former ace Walker Buehler (5.38 ERA in 16 starts) to the mound amid a season where he’s struggled to return to form after nearly two calendar years on the shelf following his second career Tommy John surgery. The Padres will counter with offseason addition Michael King (2.95 ERA), who has excelled in his first year with the club.

2. MLB investigating dispute between Machado, Roberts:

Tonight’s NLDS game between the Dodgers and Padres comes with an additional layer of intrigue as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noted that the Dodgers have asked the league to review an alleged incident between club manager Dave Roberts and third baseman Manny Machado, wherein Roberts believes Machado threw a baseball at him between innings during Game 2 of the series on Sunday. Per Roberts, the ball ultimately didn’t come close to hitting him thanks to netting around the dugout but was thrown with “intent behind it.”

Machado, meanwhile, told Rosenthal that his throw was no different from the way he’d throw a ball toward any dugout, but not before questioning whether Game 2 starter Jack Flaherty intentionally threw at Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. While it’s unclear if anything more will come of the situation following the league’s review of footage, the discourse following an already tense Game 2 that saw fans throw trash at Tatis and Padres outfielder Jurickson Profar seems likely to leave tensions high entering a pivotal Game 3 of a series currently tied at one game apiece.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

With the postseason now in full swing, 22 of MLB’s 30 teams have focused their attention on the coming winter while the rest of us have our eyes glued on playoff baseball. If you’re wondering about how the remaining contenders stack up with all four LDS tied 1 to 1 or how your club could approach the coming offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 3pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

The Opener: ALDS, Freeman, Bogaerts

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On the heels of a wild day of NLDS games that saw both series head into a travel day tied up, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. ALDS Game 2:

Both ALDS series are scheduled to have their second games this evening, with the Royals and Tigers playing catch-up after falling to the Yankees and Guardians respectively in Game 1. Fortunately for the underdogs, each club will send an ace lefty to the mound after leaning on them to win Game 1 of the Wild Card series. In the case of the Royals, that means they’ll be trotting out Cole Ragans, who posted a 3.14 ERA (135 ERA+) with a 3.00 FIP in 32 starts during the regular season before throwing six scoreless frames against the Orioles with eight strikeouts in his first career postseason appearance. He’ll be tasked with taking on Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodon, who bounced back after a brutal 2023 season to posted a 3.96 ERA (104 ERA+) in 175 innings of work this season.

Meanwhile, the Tigers will lean on lefty Tarik Skubal in today’s game against the division-rival Guardians. The winner of the pitching Triple Crown in the AL and the likely favorite for the AL Cy Young Award, Skubal turned in an utterly dominant season with a 2.39 ERA (170 ERA+) and a 2.50 FIP in in 192 frames this year before throwing six scoreless innings of his own against the Astros during the first postseason appearance of his career. Skubal will face former teammate Matthew Boyd, who spent eight of his ten career seasons in Detroit, in this evening’s game. Boyd, a midseason signing who sat out the first half while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, has looked great since his return, with a 2.72 ERA (151 ERA+) and a 27.7% strikeout rate in eight regular season starts.

2. Freeman day-to-day:

In addition to a brutal 10-2 rout at the hands of the Padres last night, the Dodgers were dealt another blow when star first baseman Freddie Freeman had to be removed after aggravating his injured right ankle. Freeman is considered day-to-day for now, but as noted by ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez, manager Dave Roberts did not seem optimistic about his first baseman’s availability going forward in the series, calling the injury “not ideal” and “of concern.” That said, the Dodgers also expressed pessimism about Freeman’s availability for Game 1 of the series before he went on to not only start the game but go 2-for-5 with a stolen base. If Freeman is unable to take the field, Max Muncy figures to slide from first base to third base. Enrique Hernandez or Tommy Edman could handle third base, with the other slotting into center field.

3. Bogaerts exits due to cramping:

Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts also exited San Diego’s win in the bottom of the eighth inning last night due to what he described to reporters (including those at MLB.com) last night as hamstring cramps. The club will already be without primary shortstop Ha-Seong Kim for the remainder of the postseason, a reality that forced Bogaerts back to his old position in the first place. It’s not expected to be an issue that leaves Bogaerts unavailable, but it’ll still be worth keeping a watchful eye on how he comes out of today’s off-day workout. The Friars aren’t lacking players with shortstop experience if Bogaerts does need to miss a game. Light-hitting utilityman Tyler Wade is on the bench, and the lineup features former shortstops Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill all playing other positions. First baseman/second baseman Jake Cronenworth has also played more than 400 big league innings at short.

The Surprise Ace Of Last Year’s Free Agent Class

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As the 22 teams that aren’t currently focused on capturing the 2024 World Series title gear up for the coming offseason, many will surely be keeping an eye on the number of high-profile free agent starters set to hit the market this winter with Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty among the consensus top arms. It’s a class that’s not entirely dissimilar from last winter’s group of top arms, which was headlined by a quartet of Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Montgomery.

Those top free agent arms garnered a combined guarantee of more than $600MM last winter, and the results were generally commensurate with that production. While Montgomery struggled badly with the Diamondbacks, Nola put up a fairly typical season by his standards with the Phillies this year (albeit with slightly diminished peripherals) and both Snell and Yamamoto fought through injury woes to dominate as expected when healthy. That said, a starter who was looked at more as a mid-rotation type of arm last winter surprised the baseball world by emerging with numbers comparable to those at the very top of the class.

That hurler was Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, who was generally looked at as a tier below the aforementioned group alongside Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito, and Sonny Gray. In spite of rumors that Imanaga’s market could top $100MM when all was said and done, the southpaw lingered in free agency into the new year before eventually signing with Chicago on a deal that fell far below expectations. While the deal maxes out at five years and $80MM, just a stone’s throw away from MLBTR’s prediction of $85MM over five years, the deal came with a complex structure that only guaranteed Imanaga $53MM, or roughly two thirds of that $80MM total figure.

It’s not hard to see why teams were seemingly bearish on Imanaga. After all, the 30-year-old lefty was coming over from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball at an age that’s roughly in line with a typical MLB free agent rather than the younger age many NPB players such as Yamamoto and teammate Seiya Suzuki make their way to the majors at. Yamamoto was marketing his age-25 season last year, while Suzuki marketed his age-27 season over the 2021-22 offseason. With many of Imanaga’s prime years already behind him, he maintained all the risk of providing a hefty sum to a player with no MLB experience without much of the perceived upside that would come with signing a player in their mid-20s.

Even aside from Imanaga’s age, it’s also worth noting that the lefty’s profile as a pitcher drew significant questions. The southpaw doesn’t throw especially hard, having averaged just 91.9mph on his heater this year, and some scouting reports (including one from Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions) raised questions about his ability to manage home runs at the big league level due to his fly ball-oriented profile. While Imanaga’s deep pitch mix and high-end stuff metrics offered reason for optimism regarding his future in the big leagues, the lefty nevertheless entered his first MLB season with plenty of questions surrounding him.

Fortunately for both Imanaga and the Cubs, he answered those questions in resounding fashion with an excellent rookie campaign. Overall, the lefty posted a 2.91 ERA (37% better than league average by ERA+) with a strong 25.1% strikeout rate that was 16th-best among qualified starters this year. He paired that strikeout stuff with excellent control, walking just 4% of opponents faced this year. That’s a figure topped by only George Kirby, Miles Mikolas, and Zach Eflin among all big leaguers this year and leaves him with a fantastic 21% K-BB that leaves him sandwiched between ace righties Zack Wheeler and Dylan Cease on the NL leaderboard.

That being said, not everything about Imanaga’s 2024 performance was dominant. His 3.72 FIP is rather pedestrian (just 6% better than league average by FIP-) and more advanced metrics such as xERA and SIERA, while more bullish than FIP on his performance, nonetheless see him as more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than the 2.91 figure he actually posted this year. The main culprit for that discrepancy between results and metrics is the very same weakness that drew some skepticism last winter: his proclivity for giving up homers. Imanaga surrendered 27 home runs this year, tied with Twins righty Bailey Ober for ninth-most among all qualified starters in 2024.

While that’s certainly not a completely untenable figure, it would certainly be fair to wonder if Imanaga is due for some regression heading into next season. Of the eight pitchers who surrendered more homers than Imanaga this year, none came close to his sterling ERA with only Nola (3.57) and Jose Berrios (3.60) posting an figure that was even within a full run of Imanaga’s 2.91 mark. Between his hefty home run rate and an above-average 80.2% strand rate this year, it would hardly be a surprise if the emergent ace put up numbers closer to the mid-rotation ceiling he was thought to have this time last year come 2025.

Of course, even a step back that aligns Imanaga’s performance more closely with his advanced metrics would leave the Cubs with an excellent #2 starter behind ace Justin Steele who they should have no concerns about starting in a hypothetical playoff series. Barring dramatic regression on the part of Imanaga next year, it seems very likely that the Cubs will guarantee the lefty the full $80MM value of his contract rather than risk him opting out following the 2025 campaign, which he would be able to do if the Cubs decline to guarantee the full contract.

Rays Could Deal From Rotation Depth This Offseason

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After the club’s first losing season in six years, the Rays are headed into what figures to be a pivotal offseason for the club as they look to remain contenders in a highly competitive AL East division. As noted by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, one way the club could look to address its lackluster offense (29th in the majors in runs scored this year) this winter is by trading from their rotation depth to acquire a bat, even if that bat doesn’t address their reported offseason priority of improving the club at catcher.

For a Tampa club that enters the winter in serious need of an offensive boost, it’s hard to deny the logic in dealing from their deep group of available arms. Youngsters Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and Ryan Pepiot all emerged as solid, affordable rotation options for the club this year, and Zack Littell’s first full season in a big league rotation seems to have established him as a quality mid-rotation option with one year to go before free agency.

Meanwhile, Jeffrey Springs returned to make seven solid starts for the club in the second half after undergoing Tommy John surgery early last year and Drew Rasmussen also rejoined the club’s pitching staff late in the year following his own 2023 elbow surgery. Rasmussen pitched primarily in a relief role this year, never throwing more than 38 pitches in an outing, but figures to be a rotation option for the Rays come Spring Training. That also figures to be the case for lefty Shane McClanahan, who went under the knife last August but figures to be ready for Spring Training as well.

With at least seven quality rotation options even after dealing away Aaron Civale and Zach Eflin at the trade deadline over the summer, it would certainly make sense for the club to explore dealing from that depth in order to address the offense. The Braves, Cubs, and Red Sox are all already known to be interested in adding rotation help this winter, while the Orioles and Mets are among the many other teams that could stand to benefit from adding a starter or two this winter as well. With even more clubs sure to look to bolster their pitching when the offseason fully gets underway following the World Series, the Rays should be well positioned to make a deal if they so choose.

Given the club’s small-market payroll and focus on long-term sustainability, it would be something of a surprise to see the Rays move on from any of Bradley, Baz, or Pepiot without recouping a similarly talented and controllable bat in return. On the other hand, it wouldn’t be a shock if clubs were hesitant to deal for McClanahan or Rasmussen given the former hasn’t pitched in more than a year while the latter hasn’t stretched out to start since returning from injury. That could leave Littell and Springs as the most likely candidates to be dealt this winter, with each hurler having various pros and cons as a trade candidate.

When it comes to Littell, the argument for dealing him is rather straightforward: the righty is only under team control through the end of the 2025 season and projects for a not insignificant $4.8MM in his final trip through arbitration according to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, so by dealing him the Rays could save a bit of money to address other areas of the roster while also potentially bringing in a more controllable player to complement their offense. With that being said, Littell’s status as a rental could dampen the return for his services somewhat on the heels of a 3.63 ERA campaign that was more solid than excellent.

If teams aren’t scared off by Springs’s lack of volume over the past few years, then, he might be able to bring back a more significant return. After all, the southpaw has been dominant when healthy with a 2.44 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 184 1/3 innings of work since 2022, when he first became a starter. Results that strong would be valuable to virtually any rotation in baseball, and Springs’s $21.75MM guarantee over the next two years lands in the sort of sweet spot that would make him a relative bargain for other teams while still clearing a significant financial burden off the books in Tampa, allowing Erik Neander and his front office to explore further upgrades in free agency even beyond what Springs would bring back in trade.

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