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How Will The Cardinals Handle Their Rotation Options?

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The coming offseason figures to be a tumultuous one for the Cardinals. Coming off a second consecutive season where the club missed the playoffs, St. Louis brass have already announced that significant changes are coming, headlined by Chaim Bloom stepping in to take over baseball operations following the 2025 season (with a larger role in the meantime) and the club planning to slash payroll as they figure to bring back few if any of their departing veteran players.

While Paul Goldschmidt headlines the list of players who appear likely to don another uniform in 2025, what’s not yet clear is what the club intends to do about its starting rotation. Rumors have swirled that the club could shop staff ace Sonny Gray this winter as they look to trim payroll and focus on developing young players, and if Gray were to be moved that would leave only struggling veteran Miles Mikolas, oft-injured swingman Steven Matz, breakout youngster Andre Pallante, and deadline acquisition Erick Fedde as rotation options on guaranteed contracts for 2025. With some interesting young arms such as Michael McGreevey, Sem Robberse, and Adam Kloffenstein in the wings as potential contributors next year, it’s not hard to imagine St. Louis getting solid enough production from its internal options.

With that being said, however, their current rotation picture offers very little certainty, especially should Gray wind up pitching elsewhere next year. After all, even Pallante and Fedde lack track records of success in a big league rotation that go beyond the current season. Fortunately, the Cards have not one but two options available to them that could help raise the floor on their 2025 rotation at a relatively cheap price: Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. The veteran hurlers will play at ages 37 and 38 respectively next year, but both posted solid results as back-end rotation options for the club this year and come with identical $12MM club options (with $1MM buyouts) for 2025. Given the club’s focus on the future and desire to trim payroll, it would be something of a surprise if both options were exercised. Given the many similarities between the two veteran Midwest natives, it’s fair to wonder which of the two hurlers would be a better choice for the Cardinals to retain next year, and which one they should send into free agency.

Of the two, retaining Lynn would surely offer a higher ceiling. The veteran hurler pitched the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis as a perfectly capable mid-rotation arm, but had a late-career breakout with the Rangers and White Sox that saw him pitch like a true top-of-the-rotation ace: from 2019 to 2021, Lynn posted a strong 3.26 ERA that was 46% better than league average with a 3.39 FIP and a 27.5% strikeout rate. He also enjoyed slightly better results than Gibson did this year, with advantages in ERA (3.84 vs 4.24), FIP (4.31 vs 4.42), and strikeout rate (21.3% vs 20.9%). For a club that’s likely to rely primarily on internal improvements in order to maintain hopes of contending for a playoff spot in 2025, there’s an argument to be made that Lynn’s ceiling and stronger results this season make him the smarter choice to retain going forward.

That’s not to say there isn’t a case to be made for Gibson, however. While the 12-year MLB veteran has never flashed the ceiling Lynn did during his peak, Gibson is more dependable in some ways. The groundballer rarely misses time due to injury, having made at least 29 starts in nine of his ten full seasons in the majors. By contrast, Lynn was limited to just 21 starts in 2022 and 23 starts this year by knee issues. What’s more, even as Lynn posted stronger overall numbers with the Cardinals this year, certain underlying metrics actually painted a much less clear picture: Gibson’s 4.44 SIERA is nearly identical to Lynn’s 4.40 figure, while Gibson actually wins on both xERA (4.90 vs 4.93) and xFIP (4.19 vs 4.39) thanks in part to a much stronger grounder rate (44.8% vs 36.3%).

While Gibson’s ceiling may not be as high as Lynn’s his reliability could be particularly valuable for a club that figures to rely heavily on young arms who may not yet be ready for a full season’s workload next year, and his comparable expected metrics call into question just how much of an advantage Lynn really has in terms of run prevention. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the club could choose a third option and decline both club options in hopes of finding similar production at a lower cost in free agency. It would be a risky choice to make given the rising costs of pitching in recent years, but a back-end arm like Martin Perez, Jose Urena, or Michael Lorenzen could theoretically be had at a lower price than either veteran’s club option depending on how this winter’s market shakes out. Of course, any player available at that price point would surely have flaws of their own.

How should the Cardinals handle their upcoming club options in the rotation? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Option Should The Cardinals Pick Up This Winter?
Decline Both Options In Hopes Of A Better Deal In Free Agency 51.42% (1,824 votes)
Pick Up Kyle Gibson's Option 36.37% (1,290 votes)
Pick Up Lance Lynn's Option 12.21% (433 votes)
Total Votes: 3,547

Clayton Kershaw Won’t Return In 2024

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5:15pm: Kershaw spoke to reporters (including Ardaya) this afternoon about the injury and revealed that his attempts to return from the injury have worsened his toe’s condition. Kershaw added that offseason surgery to address the bone spurs is “in the conversation” but indicated that no decision has been made to this point on the topic. When addressing his future Kershaw indicated that he still enjoys pitching but did not want to discuss his plans in detail until after the season has come to a close.

3:33pm: The Dodgers are scheduled to begin Game 1 of the NLDS against the Padres later this evening, and among the pitchers notably absent from their roster for the series is veteran southpaw Clayton Kershaw. That’s not a surprise given that he was previously said to be targeting a return sometime in mid-October, but today manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that the Dodgers will actually be without Kershaw for the entire postseason. Plunkett adds that, according to Roberts, the bone spurs in Kershaw’s big toe have not improved since he went on the IL back in August, adding that things may actually have worsened since then.

The news officially brings to an end an injury-plagues season for Kershaw, who leaves the 2024 campaign behind with a 4.50 ERA (87 ERA+) and 3.87 FIP in 30 innings of work across seven starts while striking out just 18% of opponents. That’s by far the lowest strikeout rate of his career and the first time his ERA+ has been below average since his rookie campaign back in 2008, when his 98 ERA+ came in just a hair below average. While low walk and home run rates help to salvage some of Kershaw’s peripheral numbers, 2024 will nonetheless go down as the worst season of the veteran’s career to this point, though given the small sample its difficult to draw conclusion about his ability when healthy enough to take the mound.

Kershaw holds a $10MM player option for the 2025 season, though after occasionally contemplating retirement over the past few offseasons it’s not yet clear whether or not he’ll exercise that option or wait to decide on his future until later in the winter. Should he decide to continue his career into 2025, the future Hall of Famer will surely be welcomed back by the only team he’s ever known during an offseason where the club is sure to pursue rotation additions with only Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Gavin Stone locked into the 2025 starting rotation alongside Shohei Ohtani, whose return to the mound will likely necessitate moving to a six-man staff.

In the meantime, however, the Dodgers will need to piece together production from a rotation that offers little certainty outside of Yamamoto and deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty throughout the postseason. A struggling Walker Buehler (5.38 ERA in 16 starts) and rookie Landon Knack (3.65 ERA in 69 frames this year) stand as the club’s most likely starting options to fill out the rotation behind Yamamoto and Flaherty, who are set to start Games 1 and 2 respectively.

Aside from Kershaw, right-hander Joe Kelly was also left off the club’s NLDS roster. It was a difficult year for Kelly, who allowed a 4.78 ERA across 35 relief appearances while battling injuries. That includes a shoulder issue that bothered him throughout the final weeks of the season, and Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic) that the veteran right-hander won’t be available until at least the World Series after tweaking his shoulder during a simulated game this week. Without Kelly in the fold, the Dodgers figure to rookie Edgardo Henriquez to fill out their bullpen for the NLDS.

Pirates Notes: Skenes, Bednar, Hayes

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After a difficult season that saw the Pirates flash signs of life in the first half with a 48-48 record before crashing to a 28-38 record after the All-Star break, Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherington discussed a few of the club’s key players as they team now looks ahead toward the 2025 campaign and the coming offseason.

Chief among those was like NL Rookie of the Year favorite Paul Skenes. For all of the club’s faults this year, Skenes was the most obvious bright spot as he was nothing short of dominant practically from the moment he made his big league debut back in May. In 23 starts from then on, Skenes posted an eye-popping 1.96 ERA with an excellent 2.45 FIP. With a 33.1% strikeout rate across his 133 innings of work, Skenes was perhaps the most dominant pitcher in all of MLB this year. The one flaw in is otherwise dominant rookie campaign was volume, as Skenes threw just 160 1/3 innings of work in total this year between the major and minor leagues. That includes eight starts where Skenes failed to pass 80 pitches in his outing.

Fortunately, that seeming unwillingness to have Skenes pitch deep into games faded as his season continued, with the right-hander ultimately throwing more than 100 pitches in six of his 23 big league outings. What’s more, Cherington told reporters (including Alex Stumpf of MLB.com) that the hard-throwing righty could find himself unleashed completely next year. Cherington indicated that the Pirates do not currently plan on “any sort of hard limits” on Skenes’s innings or pitch counts headed into 2025, leaving the door open for Skenes to post an even stronger season next year should he be able to post something close to this season’s results over a full slate of 30 starts. The righty figures to headline Pittsburgh’s rotation next year, followed by Jared Jones and Mitch Keller. There’s some uncertainty at the back of the club’s rotation behind those three, but Johan Oviedo, Luis L. Ortiz, and Bailey Falter could all be in the mix for starts as well.

Looking beyond the rotation, Cherington notably also offered a vote of confidence in longtime closer David Bednar, who struggled badly throughout the 2024 campaign and was eventually removed from the closer role in late August. Bednar’s results improved over the month of September but his peripheral numbers remained shaky, as he posted a solid 3.38 ERA but walked (ten) more batters than he struck out (nine) across 10 2/3 innings of work. That left Bednar with an overall ERA of 5.77 on the year, and while his 4.80 FIP offered some reason for optimism even that figure was still worse than average as it was held back by a 10.7% walk rate.

Given Bednar’s brutal performance and a fairly considerable $6.6MM salary projection for next season courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the club explore moving on from Bednar this winter. If that possibility is on the table, however, Cherington did not acknowledge it. On the contrary, Stumpf notes that Cherington suggested Bednar could even recapture the closer’s role in time for 2025. Even in spite of Bednar’s poor performance, such an outcome would hardly be a shock. After all, the club has few proven relievers under team control besides Colin Holderman and Bednar dominated to the tune of a 2.25 ERA with a 2.56 FIP over the 2021-23 seasons. If Bednar can even come close to that sort of production next year, he’d be well worth the $6.6MM investment via arbitration.

Now turning to the positional side, Cherington also provided a small update (as relayed by Stumpf) on third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. A former top-of-the-line infield prospect who enjoyed something of a breakout campaign in 2023 where he paired excellent defense with a roughly league average at, Hayes appeared sure to join Skenes, Jones, and Oneil Cruz among the club’s core this season. Instead, injuries derailed Hayes’s year completely. He was limited to just 96 games by a disc problem in his back that sent him to the injured list twice this year and left him playing through pain for the majority of the year when he was on the field. The injury marred campaign led to disastrous results, as Hayes hit just .233/.283/.290 in 396 trips to the plate alongside defensive numbers that were a far cry from previous seasons.

Difficult as 2024 was for Hayes, however, Cherington expressed optimism about the infielder’s status as he looked ahead to 2025. The GM acknowledged that there’s “always some level of concern” regarding an injured player until he’s once again on the field, but added that he believes the club is better informed about Hayes’s injury situation and that the third baseman is “excited” to return to action in 2025. When Hayes was unable to take the field this year, Jared Triolo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa were the club’s primary options at the hot corner this year. Both players are in line to return to the club next year and could continue backing up the position in the event Hayes struggles to stay on the field in 2025 as well.

Management Notes: Marlins, Twins, Angels

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With the majority of teams done playing for the year, many clubs have already gotten a head start on making moves that will eventually impact the 2025 squad. While free agency won’t open until next month, a number of clubs have already announced changes to their staffs as they look for new voices following disappointing seasons.

Among those clubs is the Marlins, who parted ways with manager Skip Schumaker when the 2024 season came to a close in a long-anticipated move that will allow president of baseball operations Peter Bendix to select his own manager for the first time after replacing Kim Ng at the head of Miami’s baseball operations last offseason. While Schumaker has generally been regarded as among the most attractive potential managerial candidates available this winter, the Marlins will have to look elsewhere to replace the 2023 NL Manager of the Year, and their new manager will have a tall task after the club initiated a complete overhaul of their coaching staff that the club’s new skipper figures to pilot.

While the Marlins have surely already begun their managerial search, the club has not yet been reported to have interest in any possible names for the job. That being said, there’s at least one candidate who has seeming thrown his hat into the ring: 16-year MLB veteran Anibal Sanchez, who pitched for the Marlins from his big league debut in 2006 through the first half of the 2012 season. Sanchez, who officially retired back in 2023, has no affiliated coaching experience but has previously expressed interest in coaching or managing in the majors at some point in the future.

Even so, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported yesterday that the long-time hurler has reached out to the team to convey interest in the position. It would be something of a shock if the Marlins decided to hire Sanchez, however. The 40-year-old, as previously mentioned, has no significant coaching or managerial experience. That’s not always an obstacle to hiring a manager, of course; David Ross was hired to helm the club’s dugout following the 2019 season just three seasons after he retired and without any significant coaching experience on his resume. With that being said, Ross had strong ties to then-president of baseball operations Theo Epstein. There is no such clear connection between Sanchez and Bendix, who spent his entire career prior to joining the Marlins in a Rays organization that Sanchez never pitched for.

Other notes from around the league…

  • Looking toward upper management, the Twins recently made waves when longtime GM Thad Levine, who has served as the #2 to chief baseball officer Derek Falvey throughout Falvey’s entire tenure in Minnesota, stepped down from his role with the club in order to pursue other opportunities. With Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli both set to remain in their positions for 2025, Levine represents the most significant departure from club management on the heels of a disappointing season where the Twins missed the playoffs following a massive collapse in September. Levine recently commented on his departure (as relayed by Phil Miller of the Minnesota Star Tribune) and emphasized that he’s parting ways with the club on good terms. “I kind of liken myself to Mary Poppins — the kids know how to clean up their rooms now and take their medicine,” Levine told reporters, including Miller. “They don’t need someone singing in the background to do it.” Notably, Levine has been a candidate for top baseball operations jobs in recent years, including the Red Sox chief baseball officer position for which he was a finalist last winter.
  • Turning even further up the food chain to comments from ownership, Angels owner Arte Moreno has at times indicated an openness to selling the franchise in the past. In 2022, the now-78-year-old went as far as to announce the exploration of a possible sale, though it was just a few months later that he seemingly changed his mind and took his franchise of the market. Back in February, Moreno indicated that he plans to continue his ownership “long-term” and had previously rebuffed potential buyers, insisting the club was off the market. In a phone interview with Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register this afternoon, however, Moreno indicated the door for a potential sale my not be fully closed. “I can’t tell you about the future,” Moreno said (as relayed by Fletcher) “If someone makes some stupid, crazy offer, I’ve got to do what’s best for the family. I do the best I can to run it as a business.” While it seems unlikely that a sale will ultimately come together given the fact that Moreno seemingly set the bar at a “crazy offer” in order to get a deal done, the comments are still nonetheless a notable shift in tone from just eight months ago for the longtime owner.

Erik Neander Discusses Offseason Plans, Rays Payroll

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Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander recently held his end of season press conference, where he indicated that the club figures to prioritize improving behind the plate after an 80-82 season that saw them stave off elimination from postseason contention until the final week of September despite engaging in a major sell-off prior to the trade deadline. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed some of Neander’s comments from the end of season presser, where he discusses the decision to sell over the summer and the club’s future headed into 2025.

When discussing his decision to sell off key, controllable pieces like outfielder Randy Arozarena and third baseman Isaac Paredes at this summer’s trade deadline, Neander readily acknowledge the possibility that the club may have been able to cobble together enough extra wins to sneak into the postseason had they decided against selling. With that being said, Neander offered a major sign for optimism headed into the coming winter: After cutting more than a third of the club’s expected payroll commitments for 2025 off the books over the summer (with Topkin suggesting that $45MM in 2025 dollars came off the books prior to the deadline), the Rays now have a healthy amount of financial flexibility with which to operate this winter.

It’s a major change from just last offseason, when the club had to part ways with expensive veterans Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot in order to get payroll within the club’s small market budget. This winter, not only is a similar cost-cutting sell off not necessary, but Topkin suggests the club will have some room to make additions this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Tampa’s 12-man arbitration class to make a combined $25.6MM in 2025. Even if Tampa retains each of those players and exercises Brandon Lowe’s $10.5MM club option for next year, RosterResource suggests that would leave them with just under $75MM on the books for next year. That’s $14MM below the club’s 2024 mark, $4MM below where the club ended up in 2023, and $11MM below their 2022 figure.

That should be more than enough payroll flexibility for the Rays to address their stated priority this winter of improving behind the plate. Ben Rortvedt figures to remain in place as a member of the catching tandem after a decent season where he posted a wRC+ of 87 while playing solid but unspectacular defense behind the plate. Finding a right-handed catcher to complement the lefty swinging Rortvedt, though Topkin cautions that the club is likely to focus on short-term solutions behind the plate given their belief in youngster Dom Keegan. The 24-year-old was selected by the Rays in the fourth round of the 2022 draft and since then has made it to Double-A, here he hit an impressive .285/.371/.435 in 104 games this year.

Topkin notes that with Keegan set to begin the 2025 campaign in Triple-A and the possibility of him emerging as an option behind the plate as soon as this season, Neander and his front office seemingly view Keegan as a potential long-term answer behind the plate. A good middle ground for the club could be pursuing an older catcher who might be more open to a one-year deal such as Elias Diaz or Kyle Higashioka. The addition of either player would provide the club with a solid platoon partner for Rortvedt while not blocking Keegan in the longer term.

Aside from upgrading behind the plate, Topkin adds that Neander plans to look for ways to address the club’s lackluster offense. The club’s 95 wRC+ was good for just 23rd in the majors this year, and their offensive flaws were further exposed by the fact that the team scored just 604 runs this year, less than any club except the historically bad White Sox. While that dearth of runs seems to suggest that the club ought to look to make significant changes to the offense, Neander actually suggested that he hopes the club can improve its offense internally.

There’s some logic to that, as offensive stalwart Yandy Diaz got off to a cold start in 2024 before heating up and rebounding with a strong second half, while Christopher Morel struggled badly in his first half-season of work away from Chicago after being dealt by the Cubs in the Paredes trade. More typical seasons from Diaz and Morel, as well as a strong first 162-game campaign from exciting youngster Junior Caminero, could boost the club’s offense in a hurry. Even so, however, it’s easy to imagine the club benefit a great deal from an external upgrade to the lineup at a position such as shortstop, where both Jose Caballero and Taylor Walls clocked in well below league average this year.

Moreno: Angels Plan To Compete, Increase Payroll In 2025

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The first post-Shohei Ohtani season of Angels baseball was a difficult one for fans, as the Halos finished dead last in a weak AL West division with a 63-99 record that just barely kept them from posting the first 100-loss season in franchise history.

With Ohtani no longer in the fold and the team just having finished up its worst season yet, speculation regarding a potential rebuild as swirled around the team but owner Arte Moreno put any such rumors to bed during a phone interview with Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register earlier today. During the interview, Moreno made clear that the goal he’s laying out for the organization is to contend for a playoff spot in 2025. It’s a lofty goal considering the fact that only the lowly White Sox finished with fewer wins than Anaheim this season, but Moreno added that payroll is “going to go up” to accommodate his dreams of contention next year.

With that being said, it doesn’t appear a major increase in payroll is expected. After payroll dropped significant from 2023 to 2024, Moreno now suggests that the club’s budget for 2025 figures to fall somewhere in between the (per RosterResource) $176MM the team put forward this year and the $215MM the club spent during Ohtani’s final season with the organization. It’s not exactly clear where Moreno’s target payroll lands in between those two figures, but the Angels should have some room to maneuver this winter regardless. After all, the club’s 2025 books have just over $109MM in guaranteed contracts for 2025. That doesn’t include salaries for the Halos’ rather large arbitration class, but even if each player is tendered a contract in line with the projections by MLBTR Contributor Matt Swartz they’d still be sitting at a tidy $147MM for 2025, or nearly $30MM below last year’s payroll.

That could leave the club with as much as $50MM in payroll flexibility, should Moreno cap the club’s payroll just below $200MM. What’s more, Moreno also suggested that this offseason’s payroll increase should be sustainable for the club, though he cautioned that if payroll were to creep back to 2023 levels in the future it would have to face similar cuts to what it did last winter, with Moreno indicating that the budget for 2023 wasn’t sustainable.

“It’s just an automatic loss,” Moreno said of the club’s $215MM payroll in 2023, as relayed by Fletcher. “If I start piling up (financial) losses, then the next year I’m going to cut.”

Of course, even a relatively hefty financial investment is unlikely to drag the Angels out of the basement of the AL without significant internal improvements to their core group of players. The biggest boost would surely come from a healthy and effective season for Mike Trout, the club’s future Hall of Famer who has never been anything less than elite with the bat but has been limited to just 266 games over the past four seasons. A healthy season from Trout, even if he is no longer the perennial 8-win player he was at his peak, would be a game changer for the club’s offense. So too would steps forward from the club’s young core, including catcher Logan O’Hoppe, first baseman Nolan Schanuel, shortstop Zach Neto, and southpaw Reid Detmers.

2024 was a mixed bag for the quartet overall, with Detmers struggling badly throughout the year to the point that he spent most of the season in Triple-A while Neto enjoyed a breakout season that saw him combine 30 stolen bases with a 114 wRC+ as he locked down the the shortstop position for the Angels. Meanwhile, O’Hoppe and Schanuel both posted perfectly solid seasons, though with only average offense from both players and a step backward defensively from O’Hoppe there’s still plenty of room for both youngster to improve next year.

With Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward among the other complementary pieces set to return to the club next year, it seems likely the Angels’ major obstacle this season will be patching up a pitching staff that ranked bottom five in the majors this year with a 4.57 ERA and ahead of only the lowly Rockies with a 4.68 FIP. Veteran lefty Tyler Anderson turned in a solid mid-rotation performance this year (3.81 ERA in 31 starts) and Detmers’s combination of strong pedigree and past success leave him likely to earn another shot as a starter next year, but a lackluster 2024 performance from Griffin Canning and midseason elbow surgery for lefty Patrick Sandoval both leave the club with few solid answers in the rotation for 2025.

The Angels have been notoriously hesitant to shop at the top of the starting pitching market throughout Moreno’s tenure as owner, so it would be a shock to see the club pursue a top arm such as Max Fried or Corbin Burnes this winter. Even so, playing in the mid-tier of free agency this winter could help the club add more certainty to its rotation with options like Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, and former Angel Andrew Heaney among those expected to be available.

Reds Hire Terry Francona As Manager

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Today: The Reds made things official on Friday morning, confirming they signed Francona to a three-year contract with a team option for the 2028 season.

October 3: The Reds are hiring Terry Francona as their next manager, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The club has not yet confirmed the news, but Feinsand indicates an announcement is expected as soon as tomorrow. Per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Francona’s contract is a three-year deal.

Francona, 65, is among the most decorated managers in the league’s recent history. After a four-year stint managing the Phillies in the late 90s, Francona joined the Red Sox as manager prior to the 2004 season and piloted the club to their curse-breaking World Series championship in 2004. He went on to spend eight seasons in Boston, making the postseason in five of those years (including another World Series championship in 2007) while never posting a below-.500 season. He parted ways with the Red Sox prior to the 2011 season, however, and spent the next year away from managing with four top-5 finishes in AL Manager of the Year voting to his name in addition to a pair of World Series rings.

Terry Francona

He returned to managing just a year after departing Boston, however, and spent the next 11 seasons in Cleveland. Francona’s tenure with the club was nothing short of magnificent, as he piloted the small-market franchise into consistent contention despite considerable payroll restrictions. During Francona’s tenure as manager, Cleveland enjoyed postseason baseball in six seasons while rattling off eight consecutive winning seasons and even reaching Game 7 of the World Series in 2016.

While the club ultimately fell to the Cubs in extra innings and was unable to capture another AL pennant during Francona’s tenure, their 2017 campaign was almost as impressive in some ways as Francona led them through a 22-game win streak that’s the longest in AL history and second only to the 1916 New York Giants’ 26-game win streak in MLB history. Francona’s 11 seasons with Cleveland saw him win three Manager of the Year awards as he captured the honor in 2013, 2016, and most recently in 2022 when he piloted the Guardians to an unlikely AL Central division title and within one game of the club’s first ALCS since 2016.

Francona’s time with the Guardians came to an end when he stepped down following the 2023 season amid long-standing health issues. At the time of his departure from the manager’s chair, Francona indicated to reporters (including those at ESPN) that his priority for 2024 was to “go home and get healthy and see what I miss about the game.” Clearly, the veteran skipper has decided that he misses being at the helm of a big league dugout as he will now return to Ohio as manager of the Reds, his first NL job since departing the Phillies in 2000.

He joins up with Cincinnati following a disappointing season that saw the club take a step back from last year’s 82-80 effort with a 77-85 season despite major breakouts for both star shortstop Elly De La Cruz and hard-throwing righty Hunter Greene. Injuries to key pieces like Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand likely played a role in the club’s struggles but whatever hopes the club may have for health-related improvement next year wasn’t enough to convince the front office to retain David Bell, who missed the playoffs in five of his six seasons with the Reds. The club’s managerial search reportedly included younger names such as former Cubs skipper David Ross and departing Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, but the Reds will instead lean on Francona’s decades of experience in order to turn things around for the organization.

With Francona now in place, the Reds have now addressed perhaps the biggest question mark facing them this winter as they look towards the offseason with plenty of other hurdles that will need to be addressed. Chief among those could be their TV revenue situation, as Diamond Sports is reportedly planning to cut ties with the club, which could leave their financial picture uncertain headed into 2025. That’s a frustrating situation for any club, but perhaps especially for a Reds team that already runs among the league’s lower payrolls and figures to lose Nick Martinez to the open market later this winter on the heels of an excellent 2024 campaign that saw him help shore up both the club’s rotation and bullpen throughout the year.

The Opener: Reds, NLDS, ALDS

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With the Wild Card Series behind us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Reds under new management:

The Reds’ managerial search came to a shocking end last night when it was reported that three-time Manager of the Year and two-time World Series champion Terry Francona is being hired to replace David Bell in the dugout. The Reds have not yet announced Tito’s hiring, but are expected to do so as soon as today. In a year that hasn’t seen much upheaval in the league’s dugouts to this point, Cincinnati’s surprise hiring of Francona takes perhaps the most attractive managerial gig available off the market though both the White Sox and Marlins have yet to name a manager for 2025 and it remains at least theoretically possible that one or more of the teams currently in the playoffs could make a change in the dugout following the postseason, though no club is an obvious candidate to do so.

2. NLDS starts this weekend:

There’s no playoff baseball scheduled for today as the remaining Wild Card teams rest up and prepare for their upcoming division series matchups. In the NL, there’s plenty of roster-related intrigue that figures to be settled this weekend before two pairs of division rivals clash. The Dodgers and Padres have already announced their starters for the first two games of the series, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.00 ERA in 18 starts) set to face Dylan Cease (3.47 ERA) in Game 1 before Jack Flaherty (3.17 ERA) faces Yu Darvish (3.31 ERA in 16 starts) the next day. Of note, Dodgers shortstop Miguel Rojas told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that the left-adductor strain that left him sidelined for the final games of the Dodgers’ regular season is still bothering him with minimal progress. Rojas indicated that he intends to play through the issue, although Tommy Edman stands as a capable replacement at shortstop if necessary.

Meanwhile, the Mets and Phillies prepare to play this weekend with only one starter announced between the two teams: Philadelphia ace Zack Wheeler (2.57 ERA) is set to take the ball for Game 1. Neither team has made any sort of indications regarding who their Game 2 starters may be, and the Mets also haven’t announced who they’ll send to the mound opposite Wheeler. Even so, there’s at least some roster-related intrigue in this series as well: the Mets are reportedly contemplating the addition of right-hander Kodai Senga to their NLDS roster. Senga has spent most of 2024 on the IL after a breakout 2023 season, and while he won’t be available as a starter this series it is possible that the club could lean on him for short relief, bolstering a bullpen that has seen closer Edwin Diaz used heavily in recent days.

3. ALDS starts this weekend:

Along with the NLDS, the ALDS will also begin this weekend. Unlikely its National League counterpart, however, the American League will only see the first game of its series take place this weekend before a day off on Sunday. This year’s Division Series is flooded with AL Central teams, as the division champion Guardians will take on the Tigers after Detroit knocked the Astros out last round, ending their long streak of ALCS appearances. The Tigers haven’t announced a starter for tomorrow’s game, though whoever they choose will face Guardians righty Tanner Bibee (3.47 ERA). Meanwhile, the Royals managed to sweep the Orioles out of the Wild Card series and prevent a fourth intradivision LDS matchup. In Baltimore’s stead, Kansas City will now face the Yankees in the Bronx with veteran right-hander Michael Wacha (3.35 ERA) scheduled to face ace righty Gerrit Cole (3.41 ERA) in tomorrow’s game.

Ha-Seong Kim Switches Agencies, Hires Boras Corporation

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Infielder Ha-Seong Kim has switched his representation, according to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Kim will now be represented by the Boras Corporation going forward.

Kim, 29 later this month, is seemingly poised to enter free agency this November. The infielder’s current contract with the Padres includes a mutual option for the 2025 season but Kim is widely expected to decline that $8MM option in favor of a $2MM buyout and test the open market. It will be Kim’s first unencumbered trip through free agency after signing with San Diego on a $28MM guarantee prior to the 2021 season after being posted to MLB by the Kiwoom Heroes of South Korea’s KBO. While Kim was eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs for any amount of money, the posting system comes with a few caveats that don’t exist for a typical free agent such as the posting fee that must be paid to the player’s former club and specific windows during which negotiations must take place.

Without those restrictions, Kim is likely to enjoy a different experience in his second time through MLB’s free agent process. That’s also due to his performance on the field, of course, as Kim has emerged as one of the top infield options in this winter’s class thanks to the average offense and excellent defense he flashed during his time in San Diego. Since becoming an everyday player with the Padres in 2022, Kim has slashed a solid .250/.336/.385 that’s good for a 106 wRC+, 6% better than the league average hitter. He also flashed the best plate discipline of his career this season with a 12.3% walk rate against an excellent 16.4% strikeout rate, and has chipped in 60 stolen bases in 74 attempts over the past two years.

While Kim’s offensive development since coming to stateside ball has been impressive, the main selling point of the infielder’s profile remains his strong defense. Kim ranks 17th among all infielders over the last three years in Outs Above Average with a +21 figure and is the 11th-best infielder over that same timeframe by DRS with a +30 that is only bested by Taylor Walls, Miguel Rojas, and Dansby Swanson among shortstops during that time. Kim’s defensive value is further enhanced by his versatility, as he has shown himself to be a quality defender at both second and third base in addition to shortstop.

With that being said, Kim’s outlook in free agency grew quite a bit murkier last week when it was announced that the infielder is set to undergo shoulder surgery this offseason. With so much of Kim’s value tied to his defensive value, the prospect of a major procedure on his throwing shoulder could worry some potential suitors this winter and may complicate a free agency that otherwise appeared to leave Kim in position to secure a strong multi-year guarantee. It’s a somewhat unusual situation that Kim will now turn to the Boras Corporation, the agency run by high-profile agent Scott Boras, to navigate.

Kim joins other high-profile free agents in the upcoming class such as Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Pete Alonso in being represented by Boras, who drew plenty of attention last winter as the free agencies of a handful of his top clients dragged into Spring Training. Each of the so-called “Boras Four,” comprised of Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, and Jordan Montgomery, wound up taking short-term deals that generally met expectations in terms of average annual value but fell well short in overall guarantee. It’s an approach that’s drawn mixed reviews, with Montgomery switching his representation amid a career-worst season with the Diamondbacks while Snell praised Boras and now appears likely to head into free agency under his guidance for the second time in as many seasons. Chapman signed a hefty extension with the Giants last month in lieu of returning to the open market this winter while Bellinger’s upcoming decision on his player option remains up in the air.

Should Kim’s foray into free agency not yield the strong payday that was expected prior to the announcement of his impending shoulder surgery, it wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise to see Kim opt for a shorter-term, option-laden deal with a high average annual value similar to the ones signed by each of those aforementioned players this winter. After all, it’s a strategy that worked out quite well for Chapman, Snell, and even Boras clients from before last winter such as Carlos Correa and Max Scherzer.

Latest On The Braves’ Rotation Plans

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On the heels of the Braves’ abrupt elimination from the postseason after being swept out of the Wild Card Series in two games by the Padres, Atlanta will now turn its attention to the coming offseason.

The dominating narrative of the club’s winter figures to be the future of longtime starter Max Fried, who has been a stalwart of the club’s rotation for the past half decade but is slated to hit free agency in November. The 30-year-old southpaw figures to be one of the better starting pitching options on the free agent market this winter alongside former NL Cy Young award winners Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell. In 112 starts since the start of the 2020 season, Fried has pitched to a sterling 2.81 ERA (151 ERA+) with a 3.11 FIP in 659 innings of work. That’s the sort of run prevention talent that’s sure to score a significant payday in free agency, even in spite of his relatively pedestrian 23.6% strikeout rate over that same window.

What’s unclear at this point, however, is how involved the Braves will be in the bidding process for his services in 2025 and beyond. Fried is a key part of the club’s nucleus of talent and was a major piece of their 2021 World Series championship, but the same could also be said of both Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson when the pair hit free agency. Both Freeman and Swanson ultimately signed hefty contracts elsewhere while the Braves managed to continue to contend without them. As noted by The Athletic’s David O’Brien, it would not be a surprise to see the club follow a similar path with Fried. After all, Atlanta figures to welcome Spencer Strider back into the rotation sometime early next year, and the immensely talented righty would form a frightening front-end duo with likely NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale.

Such a fearsome pairing at the front of the rotation could make the Braves comfortable with losing Fried, and O’Brien suggests that the club’s offseason shopping list may only require adding a veteran depth starter who can help fill things out behind Strider, Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, and Spencer Schwellenbach. While such a pursuit “seems likely,” O’Brien does note that the club could also simply stick with its deep internal reservoir of optionable starting talent that includes Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Ian Anderson.

Both Elder and Anderson have enjoyed significant success in the majors previously, while the club trusted Smith-Shawver to take the ball in Game 1 against the Padres earlier this week and Waldrep entered 2024 as a consensus top-50 prospect int he sport. It’s certainly feasible that one or more of those arms could emerge as a quality piece of the rotation mix in Atlanta next year, the quartet posted a combined 7.23 ERA in 61 innings of work in the majors this year. What’s more, only Elder has significant recent big league experience among that group: Waldrep and Smith-Shawver have combined for just nine total big league appearances in their careers, while Anderson last pitched in the majors back in 2022.

With such uncertainty surrounding those young options, it seems like adding another proven starter to the rotation mix should be a priority for the club even if they don’t aggressively pursue a reunion with Fried. Should the Braves shy away from the top of the market this winter, a handful of interesting mid-rotation arms should be available such as Michael Wacha, Andrew Heaney, and Luis Severino. Even a back-end starter in the mold of Michael Lorenzen or Martin Perez could be a solid addition that would provide the club with some stability in the #5 spot of its rotation while still leaving the door open for one of that aforementioned group of internal arms to seize a rotation spot. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently previewed the upcoming class of free agent starters, many of whom could be plausible fits for the club’s needs this winter.

Even if the club does pursue an innings-eating veteran for the back of its rotation, O’Brien notes that the club re-signing Charlie Morton for that role is “unlikely.” He goes on to relay that the organization believes the soon to be 41-year-old veteran could opt to call it a career rather than continue pitching in 2025 despite his roughly league average 4.19 ERA in 30 starts with Atlanta this year. A Florida native, Morton has preferred to pitch close to home in recent years, having pitched two seasons with the Rays from 2019-20 before pitching for Atlanta in each of the past four seasons. Given that, it would hardly be a surprise if the veteran decided it was time to hang ’em up and spend more time at home with his family even as Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes that Morton has so far said that he isn’t ready to make any announcements about his future one way or the other at this point.

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