Steve Adams
- Good morning! Hope everyone enjoyed the Derby last night! We’ll get going at 1pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time.
- Greetings!
- Let’s begin.
Tim
- What’s a comparative contract to what bichette is looking for?
Steve Adams
- He’s going to hit free agency ahead of his age-28 season and as (assuming this keeps up) a well above-average hitter in six of his seven MLB seasons, with an injury-ruined 2024 campaign being the outlier.I don’t see any reason he wouldn’t be looking to top the deals signed by Javier Baez (6 years, $140MM), Trevor Story (6/140), Dansby Swanson (7/177) and Willy Adames (7/182) — especially since he’s going to hit free agency a year younger than all of them were when they got to the market.
Brian
- Biggest Phillies need at deadline…OF help or bullpen arms?
Steve Adams
- Bullpen help, but it doesn’t have to be one or the other.
Steve Cohen
- Who would you list as the leading Candidates for ROY in each league? Does Jacob Misorowski have a legitimate shot?
Brewers Fan
- Assumig Misiorowski wins the ROY, how does that change his status with us? Do we lose a year of control? He wasn’t promoted early enough to get a draft pick through the promotional program thing right? The rules around that stuff always confuse me…
Steve Adams
- I love Misiorowski, but Rookie of the Year talk is pretty premature with only five starts. I think it’s fine that they took the buzzworthy rookie and put him on the All-Star team, but to call him the ROY favorite when Drake Baldwin is hitting .279/.351/.479 with plus defense in 65 games feels aggressive.Miz could absolutely end up getting there, but he needs to stay healthy and needs to remain as effective as he’s been, which isn’t a surefire thing for a guy who’s walking 11% of his opponents and benefiting from a .160 BABIP.
Misiorowski will earn a full year of service if he finishes first or second in ROY voting. The Brewers wouldn’t get a pick for that since he wasn’t called up until midseason.
Curious A’s Fan
- Is JJ Bleday the A’s best (realistic) trade chip at the deadline?
Steve Adams
- They’d be selling low, but I can see it. Jeffrey Springs is a more realistic trade option who’d net a decent return, though.
My Name
- With Buxton’s comments about having a no trade clause, will reporters be done with the trade rumors?
Steve Adams
- I’ve never understood the Buxton trade speculation. He has a full NTC and has said repeatedly he’s happy where he is, and the Twins have given zero indication they’re motivated to trade him, Lopez, etc.
Seebs
- When do you see Crawford coming up and Kepler being traded for a bag of balls?
Steve Adams
- I could see Kepler being moved regardless of a Crawford promotion. Phils could try to add another outfielder who’s a better fit and simultaneously ship Kepler elsewhere. Doesn’t seem like it’s been the most … agreeable … fit so far.
Desertdawg
- Do you see the D’Backs going complete fire sale this trade deadline?
Steve Adams
- No, but I think they’ll trade some impending free agents …. Suarez, Naylor, Gallen, Kelly, Grichuk, Beeks,, Miller if he’s healthy
Mark
- Why don t the braves just sell their not going anywhere this season
Steve Adams
- They will — partially anyway. I’d be surprised if they don’t trade Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna. Maybe Rafael Montero.
Chris H
- Do the Angels have enough to get E. Suarez from the D-Backs? In general, I think they should be sellers at the trade deadline, but the hole at 3B has to be filled by someone other than Moncado, Rengifo, or Newman.
Steve Adams
- Moncada has been fine when healthy. Trading anything of note — and Suarez will cost plenty of note — for a rental upgrade would be a significant misstep for the Angels.
Frustrated Nats Fan
- How long will THIS rebuild last?
Steve Adams
- Depends on the direction in the offseason and the Lerners’ willingness to spend to improve the roster.With Gore, Abrams, Wood, Crews and House there’s a decent foundation in place, but that was true last offseason and the biggest move ownership seemingly was comfortable with was re-signing Trevor Williams.
I’m skeptical they’ll have the pitching to contend and am warming to the idea of them trading Gore for a king’s ransom, but that feels like it’d be an offseason endeavor so that whoever is dictating the return in that package is the permanent GM and not an interim solution.
bass
- top 2 likeliest closers to be traded at deadline?
Steve Adams
- David Bednar and Kyle Finnegan?
JT Snow
- What FV would Joe Ryan bring back?
Steve Adams
- Multiple young big leaguers and/or 50-FV types.
Trade Deadline Question
- Good afternoon Steve,
Who do you think will be the biggest name traded before the deadline? Bregman might be off that list due to the Red Sox recent 10 game winning streak. So who do you think will be the biggest name/contract that’s traded?
Steve Adams
- I don’t think Bregman was ever plausibly on that list. There was some speculation and there were reports to the effect of “If the Red Sox made him available, Team X would be interested.”But realistically, trading a player with a $40MM AAV and a pair of opt-outs remaining is extraordinarily difficult.
Biggest names that have a real chance to move… Sandy Alcantara, Mitch Keller, Eugenio Suarez, Zac Gallen, Adolis Garcia, Raisel Iglesias, Marcell Ozuna, basically any impending free agent in Baltimore
Jax and Duran
- Which one of us is most likely to be dealt this month? Are either of us talking extensions with out current employer?
Steve Adams
- Neither, but Jhoan Duran costs more so I suppose nominally it’d be him. Would take a silly offer from another club to try to force the Twins’ hand.
RAGBRAI
- If I put the o/u at 3.5 Pirates traded by the deadline, which would you take?
Steve Adams
- Over.David Bednar, Andrew Heaney, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Caleb Ferguson will all go. Dennis Santana, Mitch Keller, Adam Frazier, Tommy Pham could all go, too. Teams will try on Oneil Cruz, but that seems like a reach.
JN
- Would Naylor or Suarez cost more to get from AZ?
Steve Adams
- Suarez, but Naylor should still net a real return.
JErry DIpoto Mind Trick
- What kind of player could Harry Ford bring back?
Steve Adams
- He’s a near-MLB-ready catching prospect with a sizable offensive ceiling; he should get them a bat they can control for multiple years, if they move him (which isn’t a given). I’ve seen people ask if Ford would net both Suarez and Naylor, but:1) I don’t think I’d give up Ford for two pure rentals
2) Not that the D-backs “wouldn’t want” Harry Ford, but they already have a high-end catcher in Gabriel Moreno, so I wonder whether Ford would really be their focus, particularly given the overall depth of the Mariners’ farm system.
Matt Arnold
- Could I move a young arm for Lawrence Butler or Tyler Soderstrom to give the A’s a young controllable arm in the rotation?
Steve Adams
- I think you could build a viable trade framework between the A’s sending Soderstrom to the Brewers, sure. Something built around Logan Henderson, perhaps.
Draft Day
- Sooooo many shortstops taken in the first round of the draft! Why do you think that happened?
Steve Adams
- Shortstops are generally the best players/athletes on their teams and can slide down the defensive spectrum. Shortstops, pitchers, catchers, third basemen and center fielders are going to dominate the top rounds of the draft in a given year. I’m not sure there was an unprecedented number of shortstops selected or anything within this year’s first few rounds — though 15 of the first 30 is obviously quite a lot. Just happened to be the nature of this year’s class, I supposse.
Brewer Fan
- Idk how much you follow draft prospects, but any team you think had a particularly good draft?
Steve Adams
- I don’t focus hugely on the draft. It’s not my area of expertise or anything. I’m not a scout, and if we were going to cover the draft in earnest, it’d be something that’d require a resource to dedicate more than like half their time to, which isn’t a great ROI for us.There’s tons of great draft content at Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) and The Athletic (Keith Law).
Soler
- Would halos have to eat some of his contract to trade him?
Steve Adams
- They’d have to eat almost all of it. He’s a bat-only player whose bat has been 18% worse than average, and he’s earning $13MM this year and next.
the sad Braves fan
- How much has Marcell Ozuna’s value declined by his hip injury and poor performance. Thank you for doing these chats!
Steve Adams
- It’s down, for sure, but there aren’t going to be tons of impact bats available on the market, so he should still garner plenty of interest and net a return of some note.
rocky colovito
- would not dbacks get more for Suarez if they exercised his $15 M option for next year and traded so team receiving gets 1/2 years of service?
Steve Adams
- Suarez doesn’t have a $15MM option. They had a $15MM option on him for the 2025 season, which they picked up. He’s a pure free agent at season’s end.
Cards Fan
- Do you see the Cards buying or sellers at the deadline?
Steve Adams
- Both? I think they’ll trade Fedde and be open to moving Helsley but could also see them swinging deals to bring in some younger big league arms, for instance.
Patrick
- Are the Reds buyers or sellers? If buyers, who would they go after?
Steve Adams
- I’m working on their entry in our ongoing Trade Deadline Outlook series right now. I lean toward modest buyers and expect them to be in on a variety of right-handed-hitting bats and/or some help at 1B.They do have a tough start to the second half with the Mets, Rays and Dodgers standing as three of their first four series opponents, so if it goes south in a hurry that could change.
Orioles
- What are we doing with Mayo? He’s just sitting on the bench and he needs AB’s
Steve Adams
- I have long since given up trying to understand what the Orioles are doing with Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad. At this point I just hope both of them get traded so they can get an honest everyday look somewhere.You could argue that Kjerstad sort of got that this season, but it was like four weeks of mostly regular at-bats before they started reducing his role.
I’m not even a huge Kjerstad believer — I like Mayo more — but I still find it baffling that he’ll be 27 in February and have close to two years of MLB service but so far has all of 300 MLB plate appearances across parts of three seasons.
Detmers
- Lots of halos questions but would cubs send Cassie for detmers 1 for 1? Who says no?
Steve Adams
- I’m the resident “Detmers will be good eventually!” guy, and I still wouldn’t do Caissie/Detmers 1-for-1 if I were the Cubs.
Jays Hopeful
- Will the jays swing big this trade deadline? Will they consider moving Arjun Nimmala or Trey Yesavage for a real upgrade?
Steve Adams
- I expect the Jays to be one of the most active and aggressive buyers at the deadline and don’t think they’ll really have anyone truly off limits. Yesavage is close enough to the majors that he could help in the second half, though, so I can’t imagine him going unless it’s for a controllable and meaningful pitching upgrade.
Natitude
- What would the potential return be on Mackenzie Gore and 2 years of control? Should the Nats new leadership entertain such an offer?
Steve Adams
- Should top what the White Sox got for Garrett Crochet. I don’t think it’d happen before the offseason though, if at all.
Adam
- Does Willi Castro bring back a real return?
Steve Adams
- If the Twins sell some veteran pieces, yeah, Castro should net them a nice prospect. That’s not the direction the team is considering right now though, and they open the second half with series against the Rockies, Dodgers and Nats — so two of three pretty winnable series right out of the gate.
Braves Fan
- I think the Braves should consider trading Murphy. SD needs a catcher. Could Atl pay some of Murphy’s contract and get a better return?
Steve Adams
- I think they probably will, but catchers are tough to trade midseason — it’s hard to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly, mid-playoff push — and there will be more interested clubs in the offseason.Also not at all convinced the Padres have the money to add Murphy. If they had that kind of payroll space, they’d have put together a more interesting slate of offseason additions than Jason Heyward, Connor Joe, Martin Maldonado, Elias Diaz, Jose Iglesias and Gavin Sheets.
(Yes, they signed PIvetta, but they backloaded that deal in mammoth fashion, which only further points to limited 2025 resources)
Yoshida
- Do the redsox trade him? How much of the contract would they have to eat?
Steve Adams
- 80-90% of it?Jesse Winker, another LHH “outfielder” who’s best relegated to platoon DH work, got a year and $7.5MM this winter.
Daniel Byrne
- Tigers are deficient in the bullpen. Do you anticipate they will try to strengthen it?
Steve Adams
- Every contender will try to strengthen its bullpen. Tigers are no exception and will probably be more aggressive than most, given the steps back from Hurter, Holton, Brieske, etc. this year.
Chris Young
- Adolis is available? Who am I getting for him?
Steve Adams
- I don’t think Garcia has massive trade value, given his salary and looming arbitration raise. But I do think the Rangers will listen on him for those reasons. They’ve tried, unsuccessfully, to retool their offense. Garcia probably gets a raise to $13MM+ for his final season of club control. Texas already has more than $131MM on the books next year, and that’s not even including Joc Pederson’s $18.5MM player option, which he’ll exercise.So you’re at $150MM in payroll and need to replace Tyler Mahle, Patrick Corbin and Jon Gray on the roster, plus half the bullpen (Shawn Armstrong, Hoby Milner, Chris Martin, Luke Jackson).
And you have questions at catcher and the infield corners.
Colin
- Jose Ramirez available? I’d love to see him in Seattle for a package starting with Harry Ford, Williamson and a bunch of prospects
Steve Adams
- No, and he has a no-trade clause. But that sort of trade would be tons of fun (and cost more than Ford, Williamson and a smattering of mid-range prospects)
Taker55
- Who is in the running for this year’s most unforeseeable QO? Trent Grisham?
Steve Adams
- Grisham is a decent one. Ryan O’Hearn, Tyler Mahle are another couple options after a quick scour of my free agent leaderboards. Probably blanking on an under-the-radar name or two
bill
- Any chance K Ruiz gets offloaded by the Nats to a team looking for a change of scenery upgrade a t C
Steve Adams
- With all due respect to Ruiz, I’m not sure which team that’s hoping to add a catching upgrade looks at him and thinks, “Yeah, that’s our guy.” His bat has declined three straights years. His framing is poorly rated. He’s not great at blocking balls. And he’s owed $35MM over five seasons from 2026-30.
FA
- Any chance Rizzo or Candelario or more of the free agents sign soon? Deadline seems like the time to sign imo
Steve Adams
- Candelario already signed a minor league deal with the Yankees. Seems like David Robertson is gearing up to sign soon.
Philly A’s
- Do you see any of this year’s draft picks making it to a bullpen this year?
Steve Adams
- Gage Wood joining the Phillies in September seems feasible.
Suarez
- If he isn’t moved, can he get a QO?
Steve Adams
- He can and wil
- will*
Guest
- By telegraphing his extreme need for a left fielder, isn’t Preller harming his bargaining position?
Steve Adams
- Anyone who watched the Padres sign Connor Joe and Jason Heyward this winter and then saw their LFs produce a combined .221/.282/.322 slash through the All-Star break would know they badly want a left fielder whether Preller stayed silent or whether he took out nationwide billboards proclaiming that he’s interested in any and all left fielders.
Tom Kelly’s blues
- Is a 56 win 52 loss record on 7/31 good enough for the Twins to buy?
Steve Adams
- Yeah. I imagine that’d probably give them a share of the Wild Card in the AL or put them within 1-2 games. I doubt they even need to be quite that far over .500.That said, the Twins are up for sale and had major payroll concerns over the winter. I don’t know that they’re going to have the resources to make any significant adds, and even if they did, this front office tends to be pretty conservative on the buy side of things.
Jerry Dipoto
- Over/under 1.5 trades for me this deadline?
Steve Adams
- Over
Baines3
- Best guess-Luis Robert to…
Steve Adams
- Giants or Reds, with White Sox eating most of the remaining guarantee. (Total guess — I just picked two plausible buyers who rank near the bottom of the league in terms of offense versus left-handed pitching, since that’s one thing Robert is still doing well)
Norbert
- Do the Angels trade Trout?
Steve Adams
- No
Darthyen
- Doesn’t Lourdes Gurriel Jr. make the most sense for what the Blue Jays need (not including pitching) He won’t cost much in prospect return mostly money (depending how much money, if any, Ariizona sends in the deal), he fills the RH left field bat with power and even play some passable first base. Bringing in Gurriel, with everyone healthy, will push Barger to third 80-90% of the time, Clemment to utility role, Lucas to some platoon/bench role and the rest to the minors
Steve Adams
- He’s a league-average bat who’s owed $18MM beyond the current season ($14MM 2026 salary, $4MM buyout on a 2027 option).There are better and/or more affordable LF options. Not sure I’d call Gurriel a RH bat “with power,” either. He has average power, I suppose, although that’s playing at a stadium that’s very beneficial to right-handed hitters. (Rogers Centre is as well, but a bit less so)
John
- Would Harry Ford net the M’s Willi Castro and Griffin Jax (assuming Twins are sellers)?
Steve Adams
- Have to imagine the Twins would do that even if they weren’t intent on selling.
GM Joe
- Last year I believe there was no top 100 prospect traded. Does this trend continue???
Steve Adams
- Depends how you view “top-100 prospects.” Thayron Liranzo was a 50-FV guy at the time and wound up pretty quickly landing on Top 100 lists post-draft. Agustin Ramirez was a top-100 guy, or close to it. Jake Bloss had crept onto the back end of BA’s Top 100 at some point.People get overly hung up on numerical rankings of prospects when the gap between someone ranked, say, 60th in the game and someone ranked 115th is pretty negligible.
- Also, for what it’s worth, multiple Phillies beat writers saying Dombrowski is going to be more aggressive in his search for bullpen arms and target the Emmanuel Clase types of the world certainly suggests the Phils will be willing to splash some prospects around.
- Ok, I’ve got to wrap this up. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, weekly subscriber-only chats with Anthony Franco and me (where your odds of getting a question answered are much better), direct Q&A opps with Darragh McDonald, access to our new Trade Deadline Outlook series, access to our Contract Tracker, GM Tracker and our Agency Database, and more. It all starts at $2.99/month.
Thanks and enjoy the rest of your week!