Cubs, Tyler Duffey Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have agreed to a minor league deal with right-handed reliever Tyler Duffey, as first reported by Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (Twitter link). The Ballengee Group client will be invited to big league camp this spring.
Duffey, 32, was a mainstay in the Twins’ bullpen from 2017 until this past summer, when he began to struggle with diminished velocity, a dwindling strikeout rate and increased susceptibility to home runs. The former fifth-round pick appeared in 40 games for Minnesota this past season but pitched to a 4.91 ERA with a 21.1% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and a bloated 1.64 HR/9 mark. The Twins designated Duffey for assignment on Aug. 5 and released him three days later. Duffey signed minor league deals with the Rangers and Yankees over the next few weeks but didn’t make it back to the Majors with either.
Prior to those 2022 struggles, Duffey had been a regular in late-inning situations with the Twins. There were some red flags in 2021 when both his strikeout and walk rates trended in the wrong direction, but the Twins bet on the right-hander’s track record and kept him for the 2022 season.
From 2019-20, in particular, Duffey was an absolutely dominant force in the Minnesota relief corps. He tallied 81 2/3 innings over that two-year peak and posted a sterling 2.31 ERA to go along with a gaudy 34.2% strikeout rate, an excellent 6.1% walk rate and a 43.1% ground-ball rate.
That’ll be the form the Cubs hope they can unlock this spring. They’ll be the third team to take a chance on Duffey since he was cut loose by the Twins, however, and neither the Rangers (four walks in five scoreless Triple-A frames) nor the Yankees (seven runs in six Triple-A frames) managed to do so while taking their brief looks at Duffey late last summer.
Duffey fits the Cubs’ preferred mold of offseason bullpen shopping in recent years. Since the Cubs inked Craig Kimbrel to an ill-fated three-year contract, they’ve moved away from lavish additions in the bullpen, instead gravitating toward low-cost one-year contracts and minor league deals for veterans of note who are seeking to reestablish themselves.
The Cubs’ earlier $2.8MM deal with righty Brad Boxberger also fit into this bucket. Over the past three seasons they’ve also signed Mychal Givens, David Robertson, Daniel Norris, Ryan Tepera, Chris Martin, Brandon Workman, Trevor Williams and Dan Winkler to one-year deals worth $5MM or less, while some non-roster deals have been given out to notable names like Jesse Chavez, Pedro Strop, Adam Morgan and Robert Gsellman, among others.
Marlins Outright Daniel Castano
Left-hander Daniel Castano went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Jacksonville, the team announced Thursday. Castano, who was designated for assignment to open a roster spot for Johnny Cueto, will be in spring training as a non-roster invitee.
Acquired alongside Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen and Magneuris Sierra in the lopsided trade that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis, the now-28-year-old Castano has appeared with the Marlins in each of the past three seasons, pitching to a combined 3.89 ERA over 85 2/3 innings of big league work. However, that ERA has been accompanied by a 12% strikeout rate that ranks as the lowest in MLB dating back to his debut (min. 80 innings pitched).
Castano has strong command, evidenced by a 7.5% walk rate, and he’s avoided hard contact nicely, yielding just an 87.6 mph average exit velocity, a 7% barrel rate and a 35.9% hard-hit rate, per Statcast. Paired with a solid 44.7% ground-ball rate, he’s managed to find some success even in spite of his lack of punchouts — although fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.86) and SIERA (5.28) feel he’s had his share of good fortune to arrive at that much stronger earned run average.
The addition of Cueto bolstered the Marlins’ rotation depth, although their subsequent trade of Pablo Lopez to the Twins thinned it back out. As such, the Marlins are surely happy to keep Castano in the organization. If he doesn’t earn a spot on the big league roster this spring, he’ll head to Jacksonville and give the club some experienced depth to call on in the event of an injury. While in Triple-A, he can continue to hone the new cutter that he debuted in 2022 — a pitch that emerged as his primary offering this past season. Castano found good success with the pitch in the minors (26.4% strikeout rate), but those new missed bats didn’t carry over to the MLB level for him this past season (12.8% strikeout rate).
Astros Name Dana Brown General Manager
The Astros have hired Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown as their new general manager, the team announced Thursday. He’ll replace James Click, who held the position from 2020-22 but departed after the season.
“We are excited to have Dana join our organization,” Astros owner Jim Crane said in today’s press release. “He brings championship caliber experience to our team and is the right fit for us to continue to deliver a winning franchise on and off the field. We welcome Dana and his family to the Astros family.”
Brown has been the Braves’ vice president of scouting for the past four seasons, overseeing drafts that netted the Braves talent such as Spencer Strider, Michael Harris, Vaughn Grissom, Shea Langeliers and Bryce Elder. Prior to being hired by Atlanta in 2019, he was a special assistant in the Blue Jays’ front office for nine years — overlapping with current Braves president of baseball operations (and former Toronto GM) Alex Anthopoulos for a substantial portion of that tenure. Brown spent the nine preceding seasons as the director of scouting for the Expos/Nationals and was an area supervisor and crosschecker in the Pirates’ scouting department for eight years in the 90s.
Even six months ago, the notion of the Astros needing to hire a new general manager would’ve registered as a surprise. There were reports of growing friction between Crane and Click late in the 2022 season, but winning tends to cure all, and the Astros not only made a deep postseason run but took home their second World Series title in the past six seasons — Click’s first in just his third year on the job.
However, while 73-year-old skipper Dusty Baker was content to take a one-year extension despite having just secured a championship, Click understandably sought a multi-year offer with his original three-year contract drawing to a close. Crane put forth what was widely viewed as a token one-year extension offer — Click’s World Series counterpart Dave Dombrowski, for comparison, was extended through 2027 by the Phillies — which was swiftly rejected by Click. The Astros announced Click’s departure two days later and, on the same day, fired assistant GM Scott Powers, whom Click had hired away from the Dodgers back in Jan. 2022.
The Astros have operated without a general manager throughout the offseason. Crane has personally taken a large role in baseball operations, negotiating Rafael Montero’s three-year, $34.5MM deal to return to the club and Jose Abreu’s three-year, $58.5MM contract. Assistant GMs Bill Firkus, Andrew Ball and Charles Cook have all retained roles near the top of the hierarchy, and former Astros star and current front office advisor Jeff Bagwell has also reportedly influenced the team’s baseball operations decisions.
Brown will now step to the top of the Astros’ baseball operations department, ostensibly with full autonomy over the team’s roster decisions moving forward. Reports have indicated that Crane was more involved than most owners even prior to Click’s departure — he nixed a deadline trade that would’ve sent Jose Urquidy to the Cubs for Willson Contreras — and only time will tell whether he has a more hands-off approach with his newly minted general manager.
Brown’s appointment as general manager marks at least something of a philosophical shift from recent regimes. Former president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow, who was fired in the wake of the 2017 trashcan scandal, was among the foremost voices in bringing about the analytical revolution in modern baseball front offices. Click, meanwhile, came from a similarly data-driven Rays organization, where he’d served as vice president of baseball operations and, per the Rays (at the time of his hiring in Houston) had “a focus on baseball research and development” and “baseball systems,” among other responsibilities.
That’s not to say that neither Luhnow nor Click had any scouting acumen themselves, just as it’s not to say that Brown is unfamiliar with many of the data-oriented principles that guide modern front offices (to varying extents). Nonetheless, Brown’s background is rooted in more traditional types of player evaluation; the Astros, under Luhnow, moved away from in-person scouting to put a greater focus on video scouting. That had already begun to change under Click, who worked hard over his final year to replenish some of the scouting resources lost under the prior regime’s shift.
Just as we can’t yet know whether Crane’s more hands-on approach will change with Brown in the GM’s chair, it’s impossible to state whether the Astros will pivot to a more scouting-heavy focus — or at least a more balanced blend between data-based and scouting-based evaluations. Brown and Crane will surely speak on the matter in the near future; the Astros have called a 2:30pm press conference to formally introduce their new general manager.
Mark Berman of FOX 26 first reported that Brown would be Houston’s new GM (Twitter link).
Photo courtesy of the Houston Astros.
Orioles, Austin Voth Avoid Arbitration
12:21pm: The Athletic’s Dan Connolly tweets that Voth agreed to a $1.85MM salary for the upcoming season, which was the midpoint between the $2MM sum at which he filed and the team’s $1.7MM. The option is valued at $2.45MM but can increase by as much as $500K based on performance incentives for the 2023 season.
11:30am: The Orioles announced Thursday that they’ve agreed to a one-year contract with right-hander Austin Voth. The deal, which avoids an arbitration hearing, also contains a club option for the 2024 season.
Claimed off waivers out of the Nationals organization on June 7, Voth immediately turned a corner with the O’s. The former fifth-round pick had long held potential and looked like a breakout candidate in D.C., but despite some brief glimpses of potential he was never able to establish himself as a consistent member of the Nats’ rotation or bullpen. Time will tell whether he’s able to do so in Baltimore, but he’s off to a good start.
In 83 innings following that waiver claim, Voth pitched to a sharp 3.04 ERA with a 20.7% strikeout rate, a strong 7.2% walk rate and a tidy 1.08 HR/9 mark. He’s unlikely to sustain an 82.4% left-on-base rate that’s 10 percentage points higher than league-average — only eight pitchers (min. 80 innings sustained a rate at that level in 2023) — but fielding-independent marks still peg him in the low-4.00 range.
Heading into 2023, the 30-year-old Voth could compete for a rotation spot in Baltimore. He started 17 games for the O’s after being acquired, and the team hasn’t done much to supplement its rotation this winter. The Orioles have effectively replaced Jordan Lyles with Kyle Gibson for the same cost, but there have been no further additions. Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Bruce Zimmermann, Mike Baumann, Spenser Watkins and top prospects DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez will all get consideration for innings this season — though the O’s are reportedly still exploring potential moves to bolster the starting staff.
Even if Voth doesn’t win a rotation spot this spring, he’ll be assured a spot in the bullpen. He’s now on a guaranteed salary for the upcoming season, and because he’s out of minor league options, he can’t be sent to the minors without first being exposed to waivers. Given how well he pitched after being claimed last time around, he’d surely be claimed if the O’s tried to pass him through waivers themselves.
The club option on the contract doesn’t extend Baltimore’s control over Voth. He was already controllable via arbitration for three seasons, so the option merely serves as a means of giving the club some possible cost certainty on his next arbitration salary. If the option is declined, he’d still be under team control, but the two sides would then go through the arb process all over again — or else Voth could simply be non-tendered. As things currently stand, he won’t qualify for free agency until after the 2025 campaign.
Red Sox In Talks With Roberto Perez
The Red Sox are discussing a deal with free-agent catcher Roberto Perez, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (Twitter link). iTalkStudios tweeted yesterday that the Red Sox had some interest in Perez. Boston has already added Jorge Alfaro on a minor league deal this winter and also picked up Caleb Hamilton off waivers from the Twins in October (later passing him through outright waivers themselves), but the front office is still exploring other potential options behind the dish.
Perez, 34, spent eight seasons in Cleveland from 2014-21, establishing himself as one of the game’s premier defensive backstops along the way. He signed with the Pirates in free agency last offseason, but his 2022 campaign was limited to just 21 games. Perez tore his hamstring in early May and wound up requiring surgery that wiped out the rest of his season.
During his brief time with the Bucs, Perez tallied 69 plate appearances and turned in a .233/.333/.367 batting line. That was solid production for a catcher, but on the whole, Perez has typically been a well below-average offensive player. His 2015 season (.228/.348/.402) and 2019 season (.239/.321/.452, career-high 24 home runs) stand as exceptions, but those peaks are offset by several seasons of sub-.200 batting averages and sub-.300 on-base percentages. Overall, Perez is a .207/.298/.360 hitter in 1752 Major League plate appearances.
That lack of offense has been easier to live with, however, due to the strength of his glovework. Perez has won a pair of Gold Gloves in his career and, in 2019, was named the Wilson Overall Defensive Player of the Year in MLB. He’s piled up 79 Defensive Runs Saved in 4052 innings behind the plate, notched a massive 39% caught-stealing rate — including marks of 41% in 2019 and 71% in the shortened 2020 season — and posted elite pitch-framing marks according to each of FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast. Since Statcast began tracking framing data in 2015, only four catchers — Yasmani Grandal, Buster Posey, Austin Hedges and Tyler Flowers — have been credited with more value for their framing efforts.
As things stand, the Red Sox figure to deploy Reese McGuire as their primary catcher in 2023. McGuire and Connor Wong are the only two catchers on Boston’s 40-man roster, although the aforementioned Alfaro, Hamilton and former top prospect Ronaldo Hernandez give the Sox some other non-roster options who’ll vie for playing time in spring training.
D-backs Sign Austin Adams, Jesse Biddle To Minor League Deals
The Diamondbacks have signed righties Austin Adams and Eric Yardley and left-hander Jesse Biddle to minor league contracts, per Baseball America’s Chris Hilburn-Trenkle.
Adams, 31, has spent the past three seasons with the division-rival Padres, at times looking like a potential late-inning weapon. Injuries and command issues, however, have undercut the righty’s enormous strikeout numbers. Adams has appeared in 108 games and tallied 97 innings at the MLB level (mostly with the Padres), working to a solid 3.90 ERA along the way. He’s punched out a massive 34.2% of his opponents in the big leagues, walked 15.5% of them and, remarkably, plunked 6% of his opponents as well.
Troubling as that lack of command is, Adams misses bats at an elite rate, and when opponents do make contact, it’s rarely high-quality contact. He’s held opposing batters to a dismal 86.2 mph average exit velocity in his career, yielded just a 29.7% hard-hit rate and allowed only six home runs in 97 innings (433 batters faced).
Adams has been intriguing enough for the Mariners to trade for him and for the Padres to push for his inclusion alongside Austin Nola in the trade that sent Ty France and Andres Munoz to Seattle. There’s some obvious talent, thanks in no small part to a wipeout slider, but in addition to being his difficulties locating the ball, he’s endured a torn ACL in 2020 and a flexor strain that required surgery in 2022, limiting him to just two innings. Because of that latter procedure, which was performed in August, it’s possible Adams will be delayed to begin his season. If he makes it back to the big leagues, the D-backs will have at least two years of club control over him.
Yardley, 32, has pitched in parts of three big league seasons, spending time with the 2019 Padres and 2020-21 Brewers. He’s notched a tidy 3.52 ERA in that time, although fielding-independent metrics are far more bearish than his ERA — due largely to a tiny 13% strikeout rate and a slightly elevated 9.7% walk rate.
Yardley has offset that lack of punchouts in part with a massive 60.8% ground-ball rate and a solid 1.01 HR/9 mark. The righty’s submarine delivery has helped him to keep the ball on the ground and in the yard, although as is often the case, it’s also given him a notable platoon split; lefties have clobbered Yardley at a .312/.382/.468 clip in his big league career.
As for the 31-year-old Biddle, he’s returning from a one-year stint with the Orix Buffaloes in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, where he pitched to a 4.02 ERA with a 24.4% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk rate out of the bullpen. The former first-round pick (27th overall by the Phillies in 2010) has appeared in parts of four Major League seasons, working to a 5.07 ERA in 103 frames. Biddle has fanned 22.2% of his opponents, issued walks at a bloated 13.1% clip and also recorded a hefty 52.8% ground-ball rate in that time.
Back in 2018, the Braves looked like they might’ve benefited from a shrewd waiver claim of Biddle, who pitched 63 2/3 innings of 3.11 ERA ball for them as a rookie that season. Since that solid debut, however, Biddle has been tagged for an 8.24 ERA in 39 1/3 big league innings.
Both pitchers will have the chance to factor into the Arizona bullpen at some point during the 2023 season. The Snakes have a handful of veterans on guaranteed contracts, including Mark Melancon, Miguel Castro and Scott McGough. They also enjoyed a breakout year from lefty Joe Mantiply and a strong 30-game run from 28-year-old Kevin Ginkel in the season’s second half. There are still multiple spots up for grabs, however, and injuries throughout the year will of course create additional opportunities for veterans of this ilk.
Health Notes: King, Antone, Sewald
Yankees righty Michael King, who missed the final two and a half months of the 2022 season due to a fractured right elbow, tells The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty that he expects to be ready for Opening Day and anticipates being deployed as a multi-inning reliever in 2023. The 27-year-old King was in the midst of a breakout season when he suffered his ill-timed injury. Prior to landing on the IL, he’d pitched to an outstanding 2.29 ERA and whiffed 33.2% of his opponents against a tidy 8% walk rate. The righty was also touting a career-high 47% grounder rate and career-low 0.53 HR/9 mark. His 96.5 mph average fastball was the best of his career. Just three weeks ago, Opening Day was reported to be a slightly optimistic target for King, so his firmer confidence in his ability to be ready for the season is a welcome development for the Yankees and their fans.
A few more health/injury updates of note from around the league…
- Reds reliever Tejay Antone‘s offseason throwing program has been slowed by a forearm issue, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, though it’s not believed to be related to the right-hander’s surgically repaired elbow. Antone was having one of the best seasons of any reliever in baseball before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2021. The former fifth-rounder turned in an outstanding 2.14 ERA with a gaudy 32.8% strikeout rate against a 10.2% walk rate while holding opponents to a comically inept .152/.258/.250 batting line through 128 plate appearances. If healthy, he could quickly ascend the bullpen hierarchy and return to high-leverage work in 2022. Antone has another three seasons of club control remaining and is set to earn just $770K this season. As such, he’ll quite likely garner plenty of summer trade interest if he’s back to form, given the state of the Reds’ rebuild.
- Mariners reliever Paul Sewald might not be ready for the beginning of Spring Training, as Corey Brock of The Athletic reports that the righty underwent a “minor clean-up of his heel and elbow.” The exact timeline of the procedure or recovery aren’t known, though Brock suggests Sewald should still be ready to go by Opening Day. Turning 33 in May, Sewald is enjoying a late-career bloom. After posting underwhelming numbers over the 2017 to 2020 stretch, he has a 2.87 ERA in 127 appearances over the past two campaigns, striking out 34.8% of batters in faced in that time against an 8.1% walk rate. He and the club agreed to a $4.1MM salary for the upcoming campaign and he’ll have one further arbitration season in 2024 before he’s slated for free agency.
Who Else Could The Royals Trade?
It’s been a quiet offseason for the Royals on the whole, but they’ve taken up a prominent position on the trade market in the past few days, shipping center fielder Michael A. Taylor to the division-rival Twins in exchange for relief prospects Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz, and flipping infielder Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox in exchange for reliever Josh Taylor the following day.
Those might not be the only trades in store for general manager J.J. Picollo in his first offseason atop the team’s baseball operations hierarchy. The Royals have reportedly discussed infielder Nicky Lopez with the White Sox in what would be a second intra-division swap. More broadly, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that Kansas City still had “a couple more deals” that they’re in the process of “lining up.” With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at some of the names the Royals could potentially ship out in the days and weeks leading up to spring training.
First and foremost, it should be pointed out that both Taylor and Mondesi were a year away from reaching the open market. They represented short-term assets for a Royals team that knows itself to be, at best, a long shot to contend in 2023. Lopez is more of of a mid-range player in terms of remaining club control, as he’s arbitration-eligible through the 2025 season. Presumably, the Royals won’t want to surrender much more team control than that. Players like Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto are all controllable through at least the 2028 season; it’s unlikely the Royals would give much consideration to moving anyone from that group.
Onto some more plausible names, beginning with the focus of yesterday’s White Sox rumors…
Nicky Lopez, 2B/SS | Age: 27 (28 in March) | Contract: Signed for $3.7MM, arb-eligible through 2025
Lopez has been an all-glove player outside a 2021 season that currently looks anomalous in nature. He posted a .300/.365/.378 batting line in 565 plate appearances that season but did so with a .347 batting average on balls in play that’s 53 points higher than his career mark of .294. Lopez is a career .252/.309/.321 hitter in more than 1600 plate appearances. To say he doesn’t hit the ball hard would be an understatement; Lopez ranked 246th of 252 qualified hitters with an 84.9 mph average exit velocity and 250th with a 22.9% hard-hit rate. Statcast ranked him in the third percentile of MLB hitters in terms of “expected” slugging percentage.
That’s not a ringing endorsement of Lopez by any stretch, but he has plenty of positive attributes: namely his bat-to-ball skills and prodigious defensive prowess. Lopez fanned in just 13.1% of his plate appearances in each of the past two seasons, exhibiting strong contact skills. He doesn’t take especially lengthy at-bats (average 3.66 pitcher per plate appearance, compared to the league-average 3.9), but Lopez puts the ball in play and runs fairly well, ranking in the 58th percentile of MLB players in terms of sprint speed, per Statcast.
Defensively, there are few better players in the game — at least in the estimation of Statcast. He’s been an above-average but not elite defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved, but Statcast’s Outs Above Average credits Lopez with excellent marks at second base (12) and particularly at shortstop (31) in his career. The sure-handed Lopez has made just 20 errors as a big leaguer and shown aptitude at both middle infield slots as well as in briefer sessions at the hot corner.
With three more years of club control remaining, there’s no urgency to trade Lopez. However, the Royals have Witt at shortstop and want to give 24-year-old Michael Massey a chance to claim the second base job.
Scott Barlow, RHP | Age: 30 | Contract: Signed for $5.3MM, arb-eligible through 2024
Likely the most popular potential trade chip on the Royals, Barlow has stepped up as the team’s closer and solidified himself as a quality late-game option in Kansas City. He’s pitched matching totals of 74 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, logging a combined 2.30 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate, 43.3% grounder rate, 0.79 HR/9 mark and 40 saves.
Over the past two seasons, Barlow is tied for 22nd among 138 qualified relievers with a 15% swinging-strike rate. His 36.9% chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ties him for 15th in that same set of hurlers. Barlow has also excelled at hitting spots and freezing batters (18.1% called-strike rate), and his combined 33.1% called strike-plus-whiff rate is eighth among MLB relievers since 2021. He limits hard contact extremely well (86.4 mph average exit velocity, 30.3% hard-hit rate in 2022), has plus spin on his heater and generates plus extension with his delivery, per Statcast.
It’s not all roses with Barlow, however. He saw his average fastball dip from 95.3 mph in 2021 to 93.7 mph in 2022. In conjunction, both his strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate saw notable drops. This past season’s 1.09 HR/9 mark was the worst he’s posted in a full season, and (likely because of the drop in strikeouts) Barlow needed a charitable .240 average on balls in play to get to his sparkling 2.18 ERA; that’s 75 points lower than his 2021 mark and 84 points lower than the career mark he carried into 2022. It’s not likely to be repeated, so if the velocity and strikeouts remain at their 2022 levels, Barlow’s ERA is going to be in for quite a bit of regression.
Even with some modest red flags in 2022, Barlow remains a quality reliever who can be controlled at a relatively affordable rate for the next two seasons. If he were a free agent this winter, he’d surely have commanded a good bit more than the $12-14MM or so he’ll command in his final two arbitration seasons. There’s surplus value here, and if the Royals are (understandably) pessimistic about their chances in 2023, Barlow’s trade value will be at its apex either now or this summer.
Taylor Clarke, RHP | Age: 29 (30 in May) | Contract: Signed for $1.15MM, arb-eligible through 2025
Cut loose by the D-backs after the 2021 season, Clarke signed a surprising Major League deal with Kansas City and proved a shrewd pickup, tossing 49 innings with a 4.04 ERA. Clarke logged 10 holds and a trio of saves but worked more in low- and medium-leverage spots than in high-leverage scenarios.
It might be a middle relief profile, but if you squint there’s perhaps a bit more here. Clarke’s 3.9% walk rate was elite, and he posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (23.6%), swinging-strike rate (12.2%) and opponents’ chase rate (36.5%) — all while averaging 95.7 mph on his fastball. Fielding independent metrics felt he was far better than his ERA (3.30 FIP, 3.15 xERA, 3.16 SIERA). He doesn’t immediately jump out as a trade candidate, but three affordable years of control on a hard-throwing reliever who’s trending in the right direction might pique another team’s interest.
Amir Garrett, LHP | Age: 30 (31 in May) | Contract: Signed for $2.65MM, free agent after 2023 season
The Royals picked up Garrett in the March trade that sent lefty Mike Minor to Cincinnati. It didn’t work out particularly well for either side. Garrett pitched 45 1/3 innings and limped to a 4.96 ERA as his longstanding command woes spiked to new heights. Garrett walked 16.3% of his opponents last year, plunked another five batters and threw seven wild pitches. His 94.2 mph average fastball was his lowest mark since moving to the bullpen full-time.
Garrett still whiffed a quarter of his opponents, however, and he somewhat incredibly didn’t give up a home run all season. Unsustainable as that feat may be, its reflective of the fact that Garrett didn’t really get hit hard in Kansas City (88.3 mph exit velo, 30% hard-hit rate). Hard-throwing lefties who can miss bats are always going to find work, and Garrett’s salary is quite affordable.
At his best, Garrett logged a 3.03 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate in 74 1/3 innings from 2019-20. Another club might look at him as a bargain power arm who could be fixed.
Brad Keller, RHP | Age: 27 | Contract: Signed for $5.775MM, free agent after 2023 season
It’s been a rough couple seasons for Keller, who from 2018-20 looked like one of the best Rule 5 Draft picks in recent memory. Keller logged a 3.50 ERA through his first three seasons, going from a long reliever to an entrenched member of the Kansas City rotation. His 2021-22 seasons, however, have gone the opposite direction. Since Opening Day 2021, Keller has a 5.24 ERA in 273 1/3 innings. His walk rate has crept upward, and his once solid abilities to avoid hard contact have seemingly evaporated; Keller’s 1.15 HR/9 mark over the past two seasons is nearly double the 0.60 rate he turned in from 2018-20. His opponents’ barrel and hard-hit rates have exploded from 4.5% and 35.7%, respectively, to 8.7% and 42.8%.
Those struggles notwithstanding, Keller’s only trip to the Major League injured list (Covid-related list excluded) was in 2021 when he missed the final month of the season due to a lat strain. That didn’t seem to linger into the 2022 campaign, as Keller avoided the IL entirely while making 22 starts and another 13 relief appearances. At the very least, he should be viewed as a durable, affordable, innings-eating rental. And, if a team can restore his once-plus slider to its previous form, there’s bargain potential for the righty, who won’t turn 28 until late July.
Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B/OF | Age: 31 | Contract: Guaranteed $17.5MM through 2024, plus $10MM club option for 2025
Dozier’s outstanding 2019 season feels like a distant memory. He slashed .279/.348/.522 with 26 home runs that season, clocking in at 23% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. (If that seems low, recall that 2019 is widely regarded as a season in which MLB juiced the baseballs, resulting in unprecedented levels of offense throughout the game.)
Since that time, Dozier has recorded a tepid .226/.297/.391 batting line. His authoritative batted-ball profile from that 2019 season has wilted and now looks quite pedestrian, and Dozier doesn’t have the defensive skills to offset his now lackluster offense. He’s posted respectable defensive grades at first base but ranks as one of the worst third basemen and right fielders in the sport, according to both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.
With $17.5MM in guaranteed money left on his contract, Dozier’s deal is underwater. He could potentially be swapped out for another bad contract, although the Royals typically haven’t made that type of move in the past.
Longer Shots
There are, of course, others who could potentially be of interest to other clubs. The Royals control Brady Singer for another four seasons, and he just enjoyed what looks like a breakout 2022 campaign. Given that glut of remaining club control, however, there’s little reason to entertain the idea of moving Singer unless another team makes a staggering offer. For different reasons, reliever Josh Staumont also seems unlikely to go. The Royals control Staumont through 2025, and from 2020-21 he looked like a long-term piece in the bullpen. Staumont’s walk rate spiked to an awful 16.5% last year, though, and he missed a combined seven weeks with a neck strain and biceps tendinitis. Trading him now would be selling low on a potential power-armed, leverage reliever.
Behind the plate, Salvador Perez is entrenched as the effective captain of the Royals. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote earlier in the offseason that the Royals have no interest in moving Perez, who’s owed $64MM over the next three seasons. That’s not at all surprising, given his status within the organization. Some might naturally think that means young catcher and recent top prospect MJ Melendez could be available, but the Royals have worked Melendez into the outfield and DH mix as well. With six years of club control remaining, there’s little reason to think he’d be available, particularly on the heels of a down season. Melendez isn’t the type of player on whom the Royals would sell low.
Ken Giles Planning February Showcase
Free-agent reliever Ken Giles will host a workout for interested teams on Feb. 8, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The showcase will give big league clubs a look at Giles just before spring training commences.
Still just 32 years old, Giles has pitched only 4 1/3 innings over the past two seasons. The former Astros and Blue Jays closer underwent Tommy John surgery on Sept. 30, 2020, which wiped out his entire 2021 season. He signed a two-year deal with the Mariners in the 2020-21 offseason with the hope that he could be a pivotal member of Seattle’s bullpen in the second year of the contract, but a strained tendon in his right middle finger further pushed back his timeline.
Giles didn’t allow a run in those 4 1/3 innings he tossed with Seattle last year, but he also walked four of the 18 batters he faced and pitched with a 94.8 mph average fastball that was down quite a ways from the 97 mph he averaged in his last full, healthy season (2019). The Mariners designated Giles for assignment in August, after which he elected free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Giants. He didn’t get back to the Majors by season’s end, however.
Three full seasons have elapsed since Giles was last a dominant late-inning force, but given his track record, he should still draw eyes from scouts. From 2014-19, Giles logged 347 1/3 innings of 2.67 ERA ball and stacked up 114 saves between the Phillies, Astros and Jays. He fanned exactly one-third of his opponents along the way and did so while posting a lower-than-average 7.5% walk rate. Over that six-year period, only four qualified relievers in all of MLB posted a better swinging-strike rate than his mark of 17%: Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz, Koji Uehara and Aroldis Chapman. He ranked 15th among that same set of 331 relievers in terms of generating chases on pitches outside the strike zone (36.5%).
Whether Giles can regain that dominant form is an open question, but given what’s sure to be a low cost of acquisition, he’ll likely get an opportunity to do so with some club in a few weeks’ time.
Tigers, Cesar Hernandez Agree To Minor League Deal
The Tigers and veteran infielder Cesar Hernandez are in agreement on a minor league contract, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Octagon client will be invited to major league camp this spring. If Hernandez makes the roster, he’ll earn a $1.5MM base salary with the potential to unlock more via incentives, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press adds.
Hernandez spent the 2022 season with the Nationals but struggled to the worst offensive performance of his decade-long MLB career, batting just .248/.311/.318 in 617 plate appearances. Hernandez, who’ll turn 33 in May, surprisingly connected on only one home run with the Nationals — despite having swatted a career-high 21 long balls a year prior. Dating back to 2018, Hernandez had averaged 14 homers per 600 plate appearances, making last year’s power outage particularly unexpected.
Defensively, Hernandez has traditionally been a second baseman, although the Nats gave him some time at third base and in left field last year. Hernandez posted roughly average defensive grades at second base in 2019-20 before seeing metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average agree that his glovework at the position had swiftly declined, beginning in 2021. Both DRS and OAA felt he was average or better in limited looks at third base and in left field, for what it’s worth.
Although last season marked an obvious low point for Hernandez, he’s long been a solid everyday option at the keystone. From 2016-21, the switch-hitter notched a combined .271/.348/.394 batting line with a modest blend of power and speed, consistently above-average walk rates and consistently lower-than-average strikeout rates. That’ll be the player the Tigers hope they’re getting on this non-guaranteed deal.
The Tigers’ infield mix is relatively full, but it’s possible Hernandez could still carve out a role. As it stands, the team hopes to deploy Spencer Torkelson at first base, Jonathan Schoop at second, Javier Baez at shortstop and Nick Maton at third. That said, Torkelson, the former No. 1 overall pick, didn’t establish himself as a viable big league bat in his rookie campaign and will presumably need to earn his spot in the lineup this spring. If he struggles, it’s feasible that Schoop could spend some time at first base, which would open up some potential reps at second for Hernandez. Furthermore, if the Tigers are comfortable bouncing him to multiple spots, Hernandez could simply win a utility role out of the gate.